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    Probability Miscon

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    api-321116582
    The document discusses common misconceptions about probability, including beliefs that all events are equally likely, that past results can influence future probabilities, and that things like lucky numbers can impact random events. It provides 8 examples of these types of misconceptions, such as thinking the probability of flipping heads twice in a row is the same as flipping one heads and one tails, or that the number of sections on a spinner determines probability rather than the relative sizes of the sections. Overall, the document outlines misunderstandings people often have regarding how probability works in random situations and events.

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    Probability Miscon

    Uploaded by

    api-321116582
    50 views3 pages
    The document discusses common misconceptions about probability, including beliefs that all events are equally likely, that past results can influence future probabilities, and that things like lucky numbers can impact random events. It provides 8 examples of these types of misconceptions, such as thinking the probability of flipping heads twice in a row is the same as flipping one heads and one tails, or that the number of sections on a spinner determines probability rather than the relative sizes of the sections. Overall, the document outlines misunderstandings people often have regarding how probability works in random situations and events.

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    The document discusses common misconceptions about probability, including beliefs that all events are equally likely, that past results can influence future probabilities, and that things like lucky numbers can impact random events. It provides 8 examples of these types of misconceptions, such as thinking the probability of flipping heads twice in a row is the same as flipping one heads and one tails, or that the number of sections on a spinner determines probability rather than the relative sizes of the sections. Overall, the document outlines misunderstandings people often have regarding how probability works in random situations and events.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    50 views3 pages

    Probability Miscon

    Uploaded by

    api-321116582
    The document discusses common misconceptions about probability, including beliefs that all events are equally likely, that past results can influence future probabilities, and that things like lucky numbers can impact random events. It provides 8 examples of these types of misconceptions, such as thinking the probability of flipping heads twice in a row is the same as flipping one heads and one tails, or that the number of sections on a spinner determines probability rather than the relative sizes of the sections. Overall, the document outlines misunderstandings people often have regarding how probability works in random situations and events.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    RISKS AND LIMITS

    MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT PROBABILITY

    Misconceptions about probability may include:

    1. All events are equally likely

    2. Later events may be affected by or compensate for earlier ones

    3. When determining probability from statistical data, simple size is


    irrelevant

    4. Results of games of skill are unaffected by the nature of the


    participants

    5. Lucky/Unlucky numbers, etc. can influence random events

    6. In random events involving selection, results are dependent on


    numbers rather than ratios

    7. If events are random then the results of a series of independent


    events are equally likely, e.g. Heads Heads (HH) is as likely as
    Heads Tails (HT)

    8. When considering spinners, probability is determined by number of


    sections rather than size of angles.
    1. 2.

    Ive spun an unbiased coin 3 The Regina Rams play


    times and got 3 heads. It is Saskatoon Huskies. The
    more likely to be tails than Regina Rams can win, lose or
    heads if I spin it again. draw, so the probability that
    Rams will win is .

    3. 4.

    There are 3 red beads and 5 I roll two dice and add the
    blue beads in a bag. I pick a results. The probability of
    bead at random. The getting a total of 6 is 1/12
    probability that it is red is 3/5. because there are 12 different
    possibilities and 6 is one of
    them.

    5. 6.

    It is harder to throw a six than Tomorrow it will either rain


    a three with a die. or not rain, so the probability
    that it will rain is 0.5.

    7. 8.
    Mr. Brown has to have a
    major operation. 90% of the If six fair dice are thrown at
    people who have this the same time, I am less likely
    operation make a complete to get 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 than 1, 2,
    recovery. There is a 90% 3, 4, 5, 6.
    chance that Mr. Brown will
    make a complete recovery if
    he has this operation.
    9. 10.
    There are more black balls in I spin two coins. The
    box A than in box B. If you probability of getting heads
    choose 1 ball from each box and tails is 1/3 because I can
    you are more likely to choose get Heads and Heads, Heads
    a black ball from A than from and Tails or Heads and Tails.
    B.
    A B

    11. 12.

    John buys 2 raffle tickets. If Each spinner has two sections


    he chooses two tickets from one black and one white.
    different places in the book he The probability of getting
    is more likely to win than if he black is 50% for each spinner.
    chooses two consecutive
    tickets.

    13. 14.

    13 is an unlucky number so My Granpa smoked 20


    you are less likely to win a cigarettes a day for 60 years
    raffle with ticket number 13 and lived to be 90, so smoking
    than with a different number. cant be bad for you.

    15. 16.

    It is not worth buying a I have thrown an unbiased


    national lottery card with dice 12 times and not yet got a
    numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, on it as six. The probability of getting
    this is less likely to occur than a six on my next throw is more
    other combinations. than 1/6.

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