Chapter 17

Simultaneous Equations Models

In any regression modeling, generally an equation is considered to represent a relationship describing a

phenomenon. Many situations involve a set of relationships which explain the behaviour of certain
variables. For example, in analyzing the market conditions for a particular commodity, there can be a
demand equation and a supply equation which explain the price and quantity of commodity exchanged in
the market at market equilibrium. So there are two equations to explain the whole phenomenon - one for
demand and another for supply. In such cases, it is not necessary that all the variables should appear in all
the equations. So estimation of parameters under this type of situation has those features that are not present
when a model involves only a single relationship. In particular, when a relationship is a part of a system,
then some explanatory variables are stochastic and are correlated with the disturbances. So the basic
assumption of a linear regression model that the explanatory variable and disturbance are uncorrelated or
explanatory variables are fixed is violated and consequently ordinary least squares estimator becomes
inconsistent.

Similar to the classification of variables as explanatory variable and study variable in linear regression
model, the variables in simultaneous equation models are classified as endogenous variables and
exogenous variables.

Endogenous variables (Jointly determined variables)

The variables which are explained by the functioning of system and values of which are determined by the
simultaneous interaction of the relations in the model are endogenous variables or jointly determined
variables.

Exogenous variables (Predetermined variables)

The variables that contribute to provide explanations for the endogenous variables and values of which are
determined from outside the model are exogenous variables or predetermined variables.

Exogenous variables help is explaining the variations in endogenous variables. It is customary to include
past values of endogenous variables in the predetermined group. Since exogenous variables are
predetermined, so they are independent of disturbance term in the model. They satisfy those assumptions

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which explanatory variables satisfy in the usual regression model. Exogenous variables influence the
endogenous variables but are not themselves influenced by them. One variable which is endogenous for one
model can be exogenous variable for the other model.

Note that in linear regression model, the explanatory variables influence study variable but not vice versa.
So relationship is one sided.

The classification of variables as endogenous and exogenous is important because a necessary condition for
uniquely estimating all the parameters is that the number of endogenous variables is equal to the number of
independent equations in the system. Moreover, the main distinction of predetermined variable in estimation
of parameters is that they are uncorrelated with disturbance term in the equations in which they appear.

Simultaneous equation systems:

A model constitutes a system of simultaneous equations if all the relationships involved are needed for
determining the value of at least one of the endogenous variables included in the model. This implies that at
least one of the relationships includes more them one endogenous variable.

Example 1:
Now we consider the following example in detail and introduce various concepts and terminologies used in
describing the simultaneous equations models.

Consider a situation of an ideal market where transaction of only one commodity, say wheat, takes place.
Assume that the number of buyers and sellers is large so that the market is perfect competitive market. It is
also assumed that the amount of wheat that comes into market in a day is completely sold out on the same
day. No seller takes it back. Now we develop a model for such mechanism.

Let
dt denotes the demand of the commodity, say wheat, at time t ,

st denotes the supply of the commodity, say wheat, at time t , and

qt denotes the quantity of the commodity, say wheat, transacted at time t.

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By economic theory about ideal market, we have the following condition:
=
dt s=
t, t 1, 2,..., n .
Observe that
demand of wheat depends on
- price of wheat ( pt ) at time t.

- income of buyer (it ) at time t.

supply of wheat depends on

- price of wheat ( pt ) at time t.

- rainfall (rt ) at time t .

From market conditions, we have

q=
t d=
t st .
Demand, supply and price are determined from each other.
Note that
income can influence demand and supply but demand and supply cannot influence the income.
supply is influenced by rainfall but rainfall is not influenced by the supply of wheat.

Our aim is to study the behaviour of st , pt and rt which are determined by the simultaneous equation
model.

Since endogenous variables are influenced by exogenous variables but not vice versa, so
st , pt and rt are endogenous variables.

it and rt are exogenous variables.

Now consider an additional variable for the model as lagged value of price pt , denoted as pt 1 . In a market,
generally the price of the commodity depends on the price of the commodity on previous day. If the price
of commodity today is less than the previous day, then buyer would like to buy more. For seller also,
todays price of commodity depends on previous days price and based on which he decides the quantity of
commodity (wheat) to be brought in the market.

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 So the lagged price affects the demand and supply equations both. Updating both the models, we can now
write that
demand depends on pt , it and pt 1.

supply depends on pt , rt and pt 1.

Note that the lagged variables are considered as exogenous variable. The updated list of endogenous and
exogenous variables is as follows:
Endogenous variables: pt , dt , st

Exogenous variables: pt 1 , it , rt .

The mechanism of market is now described by the following set of equations.

demand dt =1 + 1 pt + 1t
supply st = 2 + 2 pt + 2t
equilibrium condition d=
t s=
t qt
where ' s denote the intercept terms, ' s denote the regression coefficients and ' s denote the
disturbance terms.

These equations are called structural equations. The error terms 1 and 2 are called structural
disturbances. The coefficients 1 , 2 , 1 and 2 are called the structural coefficients.

The system of equations is called the structural form of the model.

Since q=
t d=
t st , so the demand and supply equations can be expressed as

qt =1 + 1 pt + 1t (I)
qt = 2 + 2 pt + 2t (II)
So there are only two structural relationships. The price is determined by the mechanism of market and not
by the buyer or supplier. Thus qt and pt are the endogenous variables. Without loss of generality, we can

assume that the variables associated with 1 and 2 are X 1 and X 2 respectively such that

=X 1 1= =
and X 2 1. So X 1 1=
and X 2 1 are predetermined and so they can be regarded as exogenous
variables.

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 From statistical point of view, we would like to write the model in such a form so that the OLS can be
directly applied. So writing equations (I) and (II) as
1 + 1 pt + 1t = 2 + 2 pt + 2t
1 2 1t 2t
or=pt +
2 1 2 1
= 11 + v1t (III)

21 1 2 21t 1 2t
=qt +
2 1 2 1
= 21 + v2t (IV)
where
1 2 21 1 2
= 11 = , 21
2 1 2 1
1t 2t 21t 1 2t
=v1t = , v2t .
2 1 2 1

Each endogenous variable is expressed as a function of exogenous variable. Note that the exogenous variable
=
1 (from X 1 1,=
or X 2 1) is not clearly identifiable.

The equations (III) and (IV) are called the reduced form relationships and in general, called as the reduced
form of the model.

The coefficients 11 and 21 are called reduced form coefficients and errors v1t and v2t are called the
reduced form disturbances. The reduced from essentially express every endogenous variable as a function
of exogenous variable. This presents a clear relationship between reduced form coefficients and structural
coefficients as well as between structural disturbances and reduced form disturbances. The reduced form is
ready for the application of OLS technique. The reduced form of the model satisfies all the assumptions
needed for the application of OLS.

Suppose we apply OLS technique to equations (III) and (IV) and obtained the OLS estimates of 11 and

12 as 11 and 12 respectively which are given by

1 2
11 =
2 1

21 = 2 1 2 1 .
2 1
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Note that 11 and 21 are the numerical values of the estimates. So now there are two equations and four

unknown parameters 1 , 2 , 1 and 2 . So it is not possible to derive the unique estimates of parameters
of the model by applying OLS technique to reduced form. This is known as problem of identifications.

By this example, the following have been described upto now:

Structural form relationship.
Reduced form relationship.
Need for reducing the structural form into reduced form.
Reason for the problem of identification.

Now we describe the problem of identification in more detail.

The identification problem:

Consider the model in earlier Example 1 which describes the behaviour of a perfectly competitive market in
which only one commodity, say wheat, is transacted. The models describing the behaviour of consumer
and supplier are prescribed by demand and supply conditions given as
Demand : dt =1 + 1 pt + 1t , t =
1, 2,..., n
Supply: st = 2 + 2 pt + 2t
Equilibrium condition : dt = st .

If quantity qt is transacted at time t then

d=
t s=
t qt .

So we have two structural equations model in two endogenous variables ( qt and pt ) and one exogenous

variable (value is 1 given by=

X 1 1,=
X 2 1) . The set of three equations is reduced to a set of two equations
as follows:
Demand : qt =1 + 1 pt + 1t (1)
Supply: qt = 2 + 2 pt + 2t (2)

Before analysis, we would like to check whether it is possible to estimate the parameters 1 , 2 , 1 and 2
or not.

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 Multiplying equations (1) by and (2) by (1 ) and then adding them together gives

qt + (1 )q=
t [1 + (1 ) 2 ] + [1 + (1 ) 2 ] pt + [1t + (1 ) 2t ]
+ pt + t
or qt = (3)

where = 1 + (1 ) 2 , = 1 + (1 ) 2 , t = 1t + (1 ) 2t and is any scalar lying between 0 and

1.

Comparing equation (3) with equations (1) and (2), we notice that they have same form. So it is difficult to
say that which is supply equation and which is demand equation. To find this, let equation (3) be demand
equation. Then there is no way to identify the true demand equation (1) and pretended demand equation
(3).

Similar exercise can be done for supply equation and we find that there is no way to identify the true supply
equation (2) and pretended supply equation (3).

Suppose we apply OLS technique to these models. Applying OLS to equation (1) yields
n

( p p )( q q ) t t
=1 =
t =1
n
0.6, say
( pt p )
2

t =1
n
1 1 n
=
where p
=
= tp
n t 1=
, q qt .
nt1

Applying OLS to equation (3) yields

n

( p p )( q q )
t t
= =
t =1
n
0.6.
( pt p )
2

t =1

Note that 1 and have same analytical expressions, so they will also have same numerical values, say 0.6.
Looking at the value 0.6, it is difficult to say that the value 0.6 determines equation (1) or (3).
Applying OLS to equation (3) fields
n

( p p )( q q ) t t
=2 =
t =1
n
0.6
( pt p )
2

t =1

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because 2 has same analytical expression as of 1 and , so

=
= .
1 2 3

Thus it is difficult to decide and identify whether 1 is determined by the value 0.6 or 2 is determined
by the value 0.6. Increasing the number of observations also does not helps in the identification of these
equations. So we are not able to identify the parameters. So we take the help of economic theory to identify
the parameters.

The economic theory suggests that when price increases then supply increases but demand decreases. So the
plot will look like

and this implies 1 < 0 and 2 > 0. Thus since 0.6 > 0, so we can say that the value 0.6 represents 2 > 0

and so 2 = 0.6. But one can always choose a value of such that pretended equation does not violate

the sign of coefficients, say > 0. So it again becomes difficult to see whether equation (3) represents
supply equation (2) or not. So none of the parameters is identifiable.

Now we obtain the reduced form of the model as

1 2 1t 2t
=pt +
2 1 2 1
pt 11 + v1t
or = (4)

1 2 2 1 21t 1 2t
=qt +
2 1 2 1
qt 21 + v2t .
or = (5)
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Applying OLS to equations (4) and (5) and obtain OLSEs 11 and 21 which are given by

1 2
11 =
2 1
2 1
21 = 1 2 .
2 1

There are two equations and four unknowns. So the unique estimates of the parameters 1 , 2 , 1 and 2
cannot be obtained. Thus the equations (1) and (2) can not be identified. Thus the model is not identifiable
and estimation of parameters is not possible.

Suppose a new exogenous variable income it is introduced in the model which represents the income of

buyer at time t . Note that the demand of commodity is influenced by income. On the other hand, the
supply of commodity is not influenced by the income, so this variable is introduced only in the demand
equation. The structural equations (1) and (2) now become
Demand : qt =1 + 1 pt + 1it + 1t (6)
Supply: qt = 2 + 2 pt + 2t (7)

where 1 is the structural coefficient associate with income. The pretended equation is obtained by

multiplying the equations (6) and (7) by and (1 ) , respectively, and then adding them together. This is
obtained as follows:
qt + (1 )q=
t [1 + (1 ) 2 ] + [1 + (1 ) 2 ] pt + 1it + [1t + (1 ) 2t ]
or qt = + pt + it + t (8)

where = 1 + (1 ) 2 , = 1 + (1 ) 2 , = 1 , t = 1t + (1 ) 2t , 0 1 is a scalar.

Suppose now if we claim that equation (8) is true demand equation because it contains pt and it which
influence the demand. But we note that it is difficult to decide that between the two equations (6) or (8),
which one is the true demand equation.

Suppose now if we claim that equation (8) is the true supply equation. This claim is wrong because income
does not affect the supply. So equation (6) is the supply equation.

Thus supply equation is now identifiable but demand equation is not identifiable. Such situation is termed as
partial identification.
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Now we find the reduced form of structural equations (6) and (7). This is achieved by first solving equation
(6) for pt and substituting it in equation (7) to obtain an equation in qt . Such an exercise yields the
reduced form equations of the following form:
pt = 11 + 12it + v1t (9)
qt = 21 + 22it + v2t . (10)

Applying OLS to equations (9) and (10), we get OLSEs 11 , 22 , 12 , 21 . Now we have four equations

((6),(7),(9),(10)) and there are five unknowns (1 , 2 , 1 , 2 , 1 ). So the parameters are not determined
uniquely. Thus the model is not identifiable.

However, here
22
2 =
11
11
= 21 22 .
2
22

If 11 , 22 , 12 and 21 are available, then 2 and 2 can be obtained by substituting ' s in place of ' s.

So 2 and 2 are determined uniquely which are the parameters of supply equation. So supply equation is
identified but demand equation is still not identifiable.

Now, as done earlier, we introduce another exogenous variable- rainfall, denoted as rt which denotes the

amount of rainfall at time t . The rainfall influences the supply because better rainfall produces better yield
of wheat. On the other hand, the demand of wheat is not influenced by the rainfall. So the updated set of
structural equations is
Demand : qt =1 + 1 pt + 1it + 1t (11)
Supply: qt = 2 + 2 pt + 2 rt + 2t . (12)

The pretended equation is obtained by adding together the equations obtained after multiplying equation (11)
by and equation (12) by (1 ) as follows:

qt + (1 )q=
t [1 + (1 ) 2 ] + [1 + (1 ) 2 ] pt + 1it + (1 ) 2 rt + [1t + (1 ) 2t ]
or qt = + pt + it + rt + t (13)

where = 1 + (1 ) 2 , = 1 + (1 ) 2 , = 1 , = (1 ) 2 , t = 1t + (1 ) 2t and 0 1 is a
scalar.
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Now we claim that equation (13) is a demand equation. The demand does not depend on rainfall. So unless
= 1 so that rt is absent in the model, the equation (13) cannot be a demand equation. Thus equation (11)
is a demand equation. So demand equation is identified.

Now we claim that equation (13) is supply equation. The supply is not influenced by the income of buyer, so
(13) cannot be a supply equation. Thus equation (12) is the supply equation. So now the supply equation is
also identified.

The reduced form model from structural equations (11) and (12) can be obtained which have the following
forms:
pt = 11 + 12it + 13 rt + v1t (14)
qt = 21 + 22it + 23 rt + v2t . (15)

Application of OLS technique to equations (14) and (15) yields the OLSEs 11 , 12 , 13 , 21 , 22 and 23 . So

now there are six such equations and six unknowns 1 , 2 , 1 , 2 , 1 and 2 . So all the estimates are
uniquely determined. Thus the equations (11) and (12) are exactly identifiable.

Finally, we introduce a lagged endogenous variable pt 1 which denotes the price of commodity on previous
day. Since only the supply of wheat is affected by the price on the previous day, so it is introduced in the
supply equation only as
Demand : qt =1 + 1 pt + 1it + 1t (16)
Supply: qt = 2 + 2 pt + 2 rt + 2 pt 1 + 2t (17)

where 2 is the structural coefficient associated with pt 1.

The pretended equation is obtained by first multiplying equations (16) by and (17) by (1 ) and then
adding them together as follows:
qt + (1 )qt = + pt + it + rt + (1 ) 2 pt 1 + t
or qt = + pt + it + rt + pt 1 + t . (18)
Now we claim that equation (18) represents the demand equation. Since rainfall and lagged price do not
affect the demand, so equation (18) cannot be demand equation. Thus equation (16) is a demand equation
and the demand equation is identified.

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Now finally, we claim that equation (18) is the supply equation. Since income does not affect supply, so
equation (18) cannot be a supply equation. Thus equation (17) is supply equation and the supply equation is
identified.

The reduced from equations from equations (16) and (17) can be obtained as of the following form:
pt = 11 + 12it + 13 rt + 14 pt 1 + v1t (19)
qt = 21 + 22it + 23 rt + r24 pt 1 + v2t . (20)

Applying OLS technique to equations (19) and (20) gives the OLSEs as 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 21 , 22 , 23 and 24 .

So there are eight equations in seven parameters 1 , 2 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 2 and 2 . So unique estimates of all the
parameters are not available. In fact, in this case, the supply equation (17) is identifiable and demand
equation (16) is overly identified (in terms of multiple solutions).

The whole analysis in this example can be classified into three categories

(i) Under identifiable case

The estimation of parameters is not at all possible in this case. No enough estimates are available for
structural parameters.

(2) Exactly identifiable case :

The estimation of parameters is possible in this case. The OLSE of reduced form coefficients leads to
unique estimates of structural coefficients.

(3) Over identifiable case :

The estimation of parameters in this case is possible. The OLSE of reduced form coefficients leads to
multiple estimates of structural coefficients.

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Analysis:
Suppose there are G jointly dependent (endogenous) variables y1 , y2 ,..., yG and K predetermined

(exogenous) variables x1 , x2 ,..., xK . Let there are n observations available on each of the variable and there

are G structural equations connecting both the variables which describe the complete model as follows:

11 y1t + 12 y2t + ... + 1G yGt + 11 x1t + 12 x2t + ... + 1K xKt = 1t

21 y1t + 22 y2t + ... + 2G yGt + 21 x2t + 22 x2t + ... + 2 k xK 2 = 2t

G1 y1t + G 2 y2t + ... + GG yGt + G1 x1t + G 2 x2t + ... + Gk xKt =
Gt .

These equations can be expressed is matrix form as

11 12 1G y1t 11 12 1K x1t 1t
22 2G y2t 21 22 2 K x2t 2t
21 + =


G1 G 2 GG yGt K 1 K 2 KK xKt Gt
or
S : Byt + xt = t , t = 1, 2,..., n

where B is a G G matrix of unknown coefficients of predetermined variables, yt is a (n 1) vector of

observations on G jointly dependent variables, is (G K ) matrix of structural coefficients,

xt is ( K 1) vector of observations on K predetermined variables and t is (G 1) vector of structural

disturbances. The structural form S describes the functioning of model at time t.

Assuming B is nonsingular, premultiplying the structural form equations by B 1 , we get

B 1 Byt + B 1xt =B 1 t
or yt = xt + vt , t =1, 2,..., n.

B 1 is the matrix of reduced form coefficients

This is the reduced form equation of the model where =
and vt = B 1 t is the reduced form disturbance vectors.

If B is singular, then one or more structural relations would be a linear combination of other structural
relations. If B is non-singular, such identities are eliminated.
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The structural form relationship describes the interaction taking place inside the model. In reduced form
relationship, the jointly dependent (endogenous) variables are expressed as linear combination of
predetermined (exogenous) variables. This is the difference between structural and reduced form
relationships.

Assume that t ' s are identically and independently distributed following N (0, ) and Vt ' s are identically

= B 1 B '1 with
and independently distributed following N (0, ) where

E ( t ) =
0, E ( t , t' ) =
, E ( t t'* ) =
0 for all t t *.
E (vt ) =
0, E (vt , vt' ) =
, E (vt vt'* ) =
0 for all t t *.

The joint probability density function of yt given xt is

p ( yt | xt ) = p (vt )
t
= p ( t )
vt
= p ( t ) det( B)

t
where is the related Jacobian of transformation and det( B) is the absolute value of determinant of B.
vt

The likelihood function is

L = p ( y1 , y2 ,..., yn x1 , x2 ,..., xn )
n
= p ( yt xt )
t =1
n
= det( B) p( ).
n
t
t =1

Applying a nonsingular linear transformation on structural equation S with a nonsingular matrix D, we get

DByt + Dxt =D t
or xt t=
S *: B * yt + *= *
, t 1, 2,..., n

where B* = DB, * = D, t* = D t and structural model S * describes the functioning of this model at time

t . Now find p ( yt xt ) with S * as follows:

t*
p ( yt | xt ) = p ( t* )
vt
= p ( t* ) det ( B *) .

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Also
t* = D t
t*
=
D.
t
Thus
t
p ( yt xt ) = p ( t ) det( B*)
t*
= p ( t ) det( D 1 ) det( DB)
= p ( t ) det( D 1 ) det( D) det( B)
= p ( t ) det( B) .

The likelihood function corresponding to S * is

p ( )
n
L* = det( B*)
n *
t
t =1
n
t
= det( D*) det( B) p ( )
n n
t *
t =1 t
n
= det( D*) det( B) p ( ) det( D 1
n n
t )
t =1

= L.

Thus both the structural forms S and S * have same likelihood functions. Since the likelihood functions
form the basis of statistical analysis, so both S and S * have same implications. Moreover, it is difficult to
identify whether the likelihood function corresponds to S and S * . Any attempt to estimate the parameters
will result into failure in the sense that we cannot know whether we are estimating S and S * . Thus S and
S * are observationally equivalent. So the model is not identifiable.

A parameter is said to be identifiable within the model if the parameter has the same value for all equivalent
structures contained in the model.

If all the parameters in structural equation are identifiable, then the structural equation is said to be
identifiable.

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Given a structure, we can thus find many observationally equivalent structures by non-singular linear
transformation.

The apriori restrictions on B and may help in the identification of parameters. The derived structures
may not satisfy these restrictions and may therefore not be admissible.

The presence and/or absence of certain variables helps in the identifiability. So we use and apply some
apriori restrictions. These apriori restrictions may arise from various sources like economic theory, e.g. it is
known that the price and income affect the demand of wheat but rainfall does not affect it. Similarly, supply
of wheat depends on income, price and rainfall. There are many types of restrictions available which can
solve the problem of identification. We consider zero-one type restrictions.

Zero-one type restrictions:

Suppose the apriori restrictions are of zero-one type, i.e., some of the coefficients are one and others are zero.
Without los of generality, consider S as
xt t=
Byt + = , t 1, 2,..., n.

When the zero-one type restrictions are incorporated in the model, suppose there are G jointly dependent

and K* predetermined variables in S having nonzero coefficients. Rest ( G G ) jointly dependent and

( K K* ) predetermined variables are having coefficients zero.

Without loss of generality, let and * be the row vectors formed by the nonzero elements in the first

row of B and respectively. Thus the first row of B can be expressed as ( 0 ) . So B has G

coefficients which are one and (G G ) coefficients which are zero.

Similarly the first row of can be written as ( * 0 ) . So in , there are K* elements present ( those take

value one) and ( K K* ) elements absent (those take value zero).

The first equation of the model can be rewritten as

11 y1t + 12 y2t + ... + 1G yG t + 11 x1t + 12 x2t + ... + 1K xK t =
* *
1t
or ( 0 ) yt + ( * 0 ) xt =
1t , t =
1, 2,..., n.

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Assume every equation describes the behaviour of a particular variable, so that we can take 11 = 1.

If 11 1, then divide the whole equation by 11 so that the coefficient of y1t is one.

So the first equation of the model becomes

y1t + 12 y2t + ... + 1G yGt + 11 x1t + 12 x2t + ... + 1K* xK *t =
1t .
Now the reduced form coefficient relationship is
=
B 1
or B =
or ( 0) = ( * 0).

G ( G G ) K* K K*
elements elements elements elements

Partition
* **
=
* **

where the orders of * is ( G K* ) , ** is ( G K** ) , * is ( G K* ) and ** is ( G K** )

where G= G G and K**= K K* .

We can re-express
( 0 ) = ( * 0 )
( 0 ) = ( * 0** )

**
or ( 0 ) * = ( * 0** )
* **
* = * (i )
** = 0**. (ii )

Assume is known. Then (i) gives a unique solution for * if is uniquely found from (ii). Thus

identifiability of S lies upon the unique determination of . Out of G elements in , one has

coefficient 1, so there are ( G 1) unknown elements in that are unknown.

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Note that
= (1, 12 ,..., 1G ) .

As
** = 0**

or (1 ) ** = 0** .

So ( G 1) elements of are uniquely determined as non-trivial solution when

rank ( **=
) G 1.
Thus 0 is identifiable when

rank ( **=
) G 1.

This is known as rank condition for the identifiability of parameters in S . This condition is necessary and
sufficient.

Another condition, known as order condition is only necessary and not sufficient. The order condition is
derived as follows:

We now use the result that for any matrix A of order m n , the rank ( A) = Min(m, n). For identifiability, if
rank ( A) = m then obviously n > m.
Since ** = 0 and has only (G 1) elements which are identifiable when

rank ( **=
) G 1
K K* G 1.
This is known as the order condition for identifiability.

There are various ways is which these conditions can be represented to have meaningful interpretations. We
discuss them as follows:

1. ( G G ) + ( K K* ) ( G G ) + ( G 1)
or ( G G ) + ( K K* ) G 1

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18
Here
G G : Number of jointly dependent variables left out in the equation

y1t + 12 y2t + ... + 1G yG + 11 x1t + ... + 1K xKt =

1t

K K* : Number of predetermined variables left out in the equation

y1t + 12 y2t + ... + 1G yG + 11 x1t + ... + 1K xKt =

1t
G 1: Number of total equations - 1.

So left hand side of the condition denotes the total number of variables excluded is this equation.

Thus if total number of variables excluded in this equation exceeds (G 1), then the model is identifiable.

2. K K* + G -1
Here
K* : Number of predetermined variables present is the equation.

G : Number of jointly dependent variables present is the equation.

3. Define L = K K* (G 1)
L measures the degree of overidentification.

If L = 0 then the equation is said to be exactly identified.

L > 0 , then the equation is said to be over identified.

L < 0 the parameters cannot be estimated.
L= 0 the unique estimates of parameters are obtained.
L > 0 the parameters are estimated with multiple estimators.

So by looking at the value of L , we can check the identifiability of the equation.

Rank condition tells whether the equation is identified or not. If identified, then the order condition tells
whether the equation is exactly identified or over identified.

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19
 Note
We have illustrated the various aspects of estimation and conditions for identification in the simultaneous
equation system using the first equation of the system. It may be noted that this can be done for any
equation of the system and it is not necessary to consider only the first equation. Now onwards, we do not
restrict to first equation but we consider any, say ih equation (i = 1, 2, ,G).

Working rule for rank condition

The checking of rank condition sometimes, in practice, can be a difficult task. An equivalent form of rank
condition based on the partitioning of structural coefficients is as follows.

Suppose
0 * 0**
=B = , ,
B B * **

where , * , 0 and 0** are row vectors consisting of G , K* , G and K** elements respectively in them.

Similarly the orders of B is (( G 1) G ), B is ((G 1) G ), * is

((G 1) K* ) and ** is ((G 1) K** ). Note that B and ** are the matrices of structural coefficients for

the variable omitted from the i th equation (i = 1,2,,G) but included in other structural equations.

Form a new matrix

=
(B )
0 0
= * **
B B * **
B 1
= (B 1
B B 1 )
= (I )
I 0 ,* ,**
= .
0 I , ,* ,**
If
0 0**
* =
B **

then clearly the rank of * is same as the rank of since the rank of a matrix is not affected by enlarging
the matrix by a rows of zeros or switching any columns.

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20
Now using the result that if a matrix A is multiplied by a nonsingular matrix then the product has the same
rank as of A, we can write

(* ) rank ( B 1* )
rank=

0 ,**
rank ( B 1* ) =rank
I , ,**
= rank ( I , ) + rank ( ,** )
=( G G ) + ( G 1)
= G 1
rank ( B 1=
*) rank ( =
*) rank ( B ** ) .

So
rank ( B ** ) = G 1
and then the equation is identifiable.

Note that ( ** ) is a matrix constructed from the coefficients of variables excluded from that

particular equation but included in other equations of the model. If rank ( ** ) = G 1, then the

equation is identifiable and this is a necessary and sufficient condition. An advantage of this term is that it
avoids the inversion of matrix. A working rule is proposed like following.
Working rule:
1. Write the model in tabular form by putting X if the variable is present and 0 if the variable is
absent.
2. For the equation under study, mark the 0s (zeros) and pick up the corresponding columns
suppressing that row.
3. If we can choose ( G 1) rows and (G 1) columns that are not all zero then it can be identified.

Example 2:
Now we discuss the identifiability of following simultaneous equations model with three structural
equations
(1) y1 = 13 y3 + 11 x1 + 13 x3 + 1
(2) y1 = 21 x1 + 23 x3 + 2
(3) y2 = 33 y3 + 31 x1 + 32 x2 + 3 .
First we represent the equation (1)-(3) in tabular form as follows
Econometrics | Chapter 17 | Simultaneous Equations Models | Shalabh, IIT Kanpur
21
 Equation y1 y2 y3 x1 x2 x3 G 1 K* L
number
1 X 0 X X 0 X 21=1 2 33=0
2 X 0 0 X 0 X 11=0 2 32=1
3 0 X X X X 0 21=1 2 33=0

G = Number of equations = 3.
`X denotes the presence and '0 ' denotes the absence of variables in an equation.
G = Numbers of X in ( y1 y2 y3 ) .

K * = Number of X in ( x1 x2 x3 ) .

Consider equation (1):

Write columns corresponding to '0 ' which are columns corresponding to y2 and x2 and write as
follows
y2 x2

Equation (2) 0 0
Equation (3) X X

Check if any row/column is present with all elements 0. If we can pick up a block of order (G 1)
is which all rows/columns are all 0 , then the equation is identifiable.
0 0
Here G 1 = 3 1 = 2, B = , ** = . So we need ( 2 2 ) matrix in which no row and no
X X
column has all elements 0 . In case of equation (1), the first row has all 0, so it is not identifiable.

Notice that from order condition, we have L = 0 which indicates that the equation is identified and
this conclusion is misleading. This is happening because order condition is just necessary but not
sufficient.

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22
Consider equation (2):
Identify 0 and then
y2 y3 x2

Equation (1) 0 X 0
Equation (3) X X X

0 X 0
=
B =
, ** .
X X X
G 1 = 3 1 = 2.
We see that there is atleast one block in which no row is 0 and no column is 0. So the equation
(2) is identified.
Also, L =1 > 0 Equation (2) is over identified.

Consider equation (3)

identify 0.
y1 x3

Equation (1) X X
Equation (2) X X

X X
So B=
,
= ** .
X X
We see that there is no 0 present in the block. So equation (3) is identified .
Also L= 0 Equation (3) is exactly identified.

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23
 Estimation of parameters
To estimate the parameters of the structural equation, we assume that the equations are identifiable.

Consider the first equation of the model

11 y1t + 12 y2t + ... + 1G yGt + 11 x1t + 12 x2t + ... + 1K xKt= 1t , =
t 1, 2,.., n.

Assume 11 = 1 and incorporate the zero-one type restrictions. Then we have

y1t 12 y2t ... 1G yG 11 x1t 12 x2t ... 1K xK*t + 1t=

= , t 1, 2,.., n.

Writing this equation in vector and matrix notations by collecting all n observations, we can write
y1 =Y1 + X 1 + 1
where

y11 y21 y31 yG1

y12 y22 y32 yG 2
=y1 = , Y1


y1n y2 n y3n yGn
x11 x21 xK*1 12 11

=
x12
X1
x22 xK* 2
= , = 13
, 12 .


x1n
x2 n xK*n 1G 1K*

The order of y1 is ( n 1) , Y1 is (n (G 1)), X 1 is ( n K* ) , is ( (G 1) 1) and is ( K* x 1) .

This describes one equation of the structural model.

Now we describe the general notations in this model.

Consider the model with incorporation of zero-one type restrictions as

y1 =Y1 + X 1 +

where y1 is a ( n 1) vector of jointly dependent variables, Y1 is ( n ( G 1) ) matrix of jointly dependent

variables where G denote the number of jointly dependent variables present on the right hand side of the

equation, is a (( G 1) 1) vector of associated structural coefficients, X 1 is a ( n K* ) matrix of n

observations on each of the K* predetermined variables and is a ( n 1) vector of structural

disturbances. This equation is one of the equations of complete simultaneous equation model.

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24
 Stacking all the observations according to the variance, rather than time, the complete model consisting of
G equations describing the structural equation model can be written as
YB + X =
where Y is a ( n G ) matrix of observation on jointly dependent variables, B is (G G ) matrix of

associated structural coefficients, X is ( n K ) matrix of observations on predetermined variables, is

( K G ) matrix of associated structural coefficients and is a ( n G ) matrix of structural disturbances.

1
Assume E ( ) = 0, E ( ') = where is positive definite symmetric matrix.
n
The reduced form of the model is obtained from structural equation model by post multiplying by B 1 as
YBB 1 + X B 1 =B 1
Y X +V
=

where = B 1 and V = B 1 are the matrices of reduced form coefficients and reduced form
disturbances respectively.

The structural equation is expressed as

y =Y1 + X 1 + 1

= (Y1 X 1 ) + 1

= A +

=
where A (=
Y1 , X 1 ) , ( ) ' and = 1 . This model looks like a multiple linear regression model.

Since X 1 is a submatrix of X , so it can be expressed as

X 1 = XJ1

where J1 is called as a select matrix and consists of two types of elements, viz., 0 and 1. If the
corresponding variable is present, its value is 1 and if absent, its value is 0.

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25
 Method of consistent estimation of parameters
1. Indirect least squares (ILS) method
This method for the consistent estimation of parameters is available only for exactly identified equations.

If equations are exactly identifiable, then

K = G + K* 1.

Step 1: Apply ordinary least squares to each of the reduced form equations and estimate the reduced form
coefficient matrix.

Step 2: Find algebraic relations between structural and reduced form coefficients. Then find the structural
coefficients.

The structural model at time t is

yt + =
xt t=
; t 1, 2,..., n

=
where yt (=
y1t , y2t ,..., yGt ) ', xt ( x1t , x2t ,..., xKt ) '.

Stacking all n such equations, the structural model is obtained as

BY + X =
where Y is ( n G ) matrix, X is ( n K ) matrix and is (n K ) matrix.

The reduced form equation is obtained by premultiplication of B 1 as

B 1 BY + B 1X = B 1
Y X +V
=
where =
B 1 and B 1.

Applying OLS to reduced form equation yields the OLSE of as

= ( X ' X ) X ' Y .
1

This is the first step of ILS procedure and yields the set of estimated reduced form coefficients.

Suppose we are interested in the estimation of following structural equation

y =Y1 + X 1 +

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26
where y is ( n 1) vector of n observation on dependent (endogenous) variable, Y1 is ( n (G 1) matrix

of observations on G1 current endogenous variables, X 1 is ( n K* ) matrix of observations on K*

predetermined (exogenous) variables in the equation and is ( n 1) vector of structural disturbances.

Write this model as

1

(y 1 Y1 X1 ) =



or more general
1


( y1 Y1 Y2 X1 X 2 ) 0 =

0

where Y2 and X 2 are the matrices of observations on ( G G + 1) endogenous and ( K K ) predetermined

variables which are excluded from the model due to zero-one type restrictions.

Write
B =
1

or =
.
0 0

Substitute as = ( X ' X ) X ' Y and solve for and . This gives indirect least squares estimators b
1

and c of and respectively by solving

1
c
b =

0 0

1
c
( X ' X ) X ' Y b =
1
or
0 0

1
c
( X ' X ) X ' ( y1 Y1 Y2 ) b =
1
or
0 0

c
X ' y1 X ' Y1b = X 'X
0
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 Since X = ( X 1 X2 )
( X 1'Y1 )b + ( X 1' X 1 ) c =
X 1' y1 (i )
( X 2' Y1 )b + ( X 2' X 1 ) c =
X 2' y1. (ii )

These equations (i) and (ii) are K equations is (G + K* 1) unknowns. Solving the equations (i) and (ii)

gives ILS estimators of and .

2. Two stage least squares (2SLS) or generalized classical linear (GCL) method:
This is more widely used estimation procedure as it is applicable to exactly as well as overidentified
equations. The least squares method is applied in two stages in this method.
Consider equation y1 =Y1 + X 1 + .
Stage 1: Apply least squares method to estimate the reduced form parameters in the reduced form model
Y1 X 1 + V1
=
1 =
( X ' X ) 1 X ' Y1
Y1 =X 1.

Stage 2: Replace Y1 is structural equation y1 =Y1 + X 1 + by Y1 and apply OLS to thus obtained structural
equation as follows:
y1 =Y1 + X 1 +
= X ( X ' X ) X ' Y1 + X 1 +
1

(
X X ' X )1 X ' Y1 X1 +

= A + .

A X (=
X ' X ) X ' Y1 X 1 , A =
(
X X ' X ) X ' Y1 X 1 HA, H = X ( X ' X ) X ' is idempotent
1 1 1
where

and = ( ) '.

Y1 A + gives OLSE of as
Applying OLS to =

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 ( )
1
= A A
Ay1

= ( A ' HA ) A ' Hy1

1

1
Y1' HY1 Y1' X 1 Y1' y1
or = '
X 1Y1 X 1' X 1 X 1' y1
1
Y1'Y1 V1'V1 Y1' X 1 Y1' V1'
= y1.
X 1Y1
'
X 1' X 1 X1
'

where V1= Y1 X 1 is estimated by V1 = ( I H ) Y1 =

Y1 X 1 = HY1 , H =
I H . Solving these two

equations, we get and which are the two stage least squares estimators of and respectively.

Now we see the consistency of .

( ) Ay
1
= A A 1

= ( A ' A ) A ' ( A + )
1

( A ' A ) A '
1
=
1

(
plim =
1
) 1
plim A ' A plim A ' .
n n

The 2SLS estimator is consistent if

1
plim Y1'
1 n
=
plim A ' = 0.
n plim 1 X '

1
n
Since by assumption, X variables are uncorrelated with in limit, so
1
plim X ' = 0.
n
1
For plim Y1 , we observe that
n
1 1
plim Y1' = plim 1 X '
n n
1
= ( plim1 ) plim X '
n
= 1.0
= 0.
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 ( )
Thus plim - = 0 and so the 2SLS estimators are consistent.

The asymptotic covariance matrix of is

=
Asy Var ( )
n 1 plim n
( )( ) '
= n 1 plim n ( A A ) A ' ' A ( A ' A )
1 1

1 1
1 1 1
= n plim A ' A plim A ' ' A plim A ' A
1

n n n
1
1
= n plim A ' A
1 2

n
where Var ( ) = 2 .

The asymptotic covariance matrix is estimated by

Y1' X ( X ' X ) 1 X ' Y1 Y1' X 1
( )
1
s 2
A ' A =s 2

X 1'Y1 X 1' X 1
where

s2 =
( y Y X ) ' ( y Y X )
1 1 1 1

nG K

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