Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) As An Investment Alternative
Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) As An Investment Alternative
Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) As An Investment Alternative
ALTERNATIVE
INDEX
Annexure 70-73
Bibliography 74-74
0
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN INVESTMENT
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MCX
Indias No.1 Commodity Exchange
m
a
k
er
s
Executive Summary in
d
e
This decade is termed as Decade of
v
Commodities. Prices of all commodities are heading
el
upwards due to rapid increase in demand for
o
commodities. Developing countries like India are
pi
voraciously consuming the commodities. Thats why
globally commodity market is bigger than the stock n
market. g
c
India is one of the top producers of large o
number of commodities and also has a long history of u
trading in commodities and related derivatives. The nt
Commodities Derivatives market has seen ups and ri
downs, but seems to have finally arrived now. The es
market has made enormous progress in terms of ,
Technology, transparency and trading activity. th
Interestingly, this has happened only after the at
Government protection was removed from a number of pr
Commodities, and market force was allowed to play ic
their role. This should act as a major lesson for policy in
g and price risk management should be left to the
market forces rather than trying to achieve these
through administered price mechanisms. The
management of price risk is
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN INVESTMENT
ALTERNATIVE
types
1) Profit Maximization (Short-Term) and
The following are the Investment Options that are available for the
common man
4) Taking Life Insurance Policy is of most important for all the people.
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN INVESTMENT
ALTERNATIVE
6) Investment in Real Estate Properties has given the highest returns since
past years. There is a capital appreciation of residential buildings particularly in
the urban areas. But investment in real estate properties is normally
substantial. Due to huge investment in one item, the benefits of diversification
that
Where the risk is low, there is very low returns on investment which is also
less than rising inflation rates and where there is more or heavy risk the
returns are very high but it demands heavy investment.
5Page
Now research lies in this context that how to make minimum investment to
get high rate of return with comparatively low risk.
(Source Infomine.com)
6
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN INVESTMENT
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Source Infomine.com
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN INVESTMENT
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MCX
METAL & ENERGY
Trade With Trust.
(1920).
The parliament passed the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act,
1952, which regulated contracts in Commodities all over the India. The act
prohibited options trading in Goods along with cash settlement of forward
trades, rendering a crushing blow to the commodity derivatives market.
Under the act only those associations/exchanges, which are granted
reorganization from the Government, are allowed to organize forward trading
in regulated commodities.
After Liberalization and Globalization in 1990, the Government
set up a committee (1993) to examine the role of futures trading. The
Committee (headed by Prof. K.N. Kabra) recommended allowing futures
trading in 17 commodity groups. It also recommended strengthening Forward
Markets Commission, and certain amendments to Forward Contracts
MCX started of trade in November 2003 and has built strategic alliance
with Bombay Bullion Association, Bombay Metal Exchange, Solvent
Extractors Association of India and pulses Importers Association
Mentha oil, Potatoes, Palm oil, Pepper, Red Chili, Jeera, Cardamom,
Cinnamon, Clove, Ginger, Chana, Masur, Tur, Urad, Rice/ Basmati
12
Rice, Wheat, Maize, Bajara, Barley, Kapas, Gaur seed and Guargum,
Page
MCX
METAL & ENERGY
Trade With Trust.
m
e
a
Global Institutional investor interest in n
commodity trading has increased significantly over the past s
few years. This, in part, reflects powerful cyclical and
o
structural forces working in favor of commodity markets,
f
while, also the realization of the need to diversify personal
investments into upcoming of this financial products. The p
areas covered includes o
r
Liquidity: t
f
Unlike investment vehicles like real estate, investments in o
commodity futures offer high liquidity. It is equally easy l
to both buy and sell futures and an investor can easily i
liquidate his position whenever required. It enhances o
liquidity because there is no lock-in of funds. When client
d
clears his position the margin money is again deposited in
i
his account. Again hi profits will also be deposited in his
v
account. He can withdraw his profits just after the clearing
e
of his transaction. r
s
Diversification:
i
f
Investments in commodity markets are an excellent
ication. For example, gold prices have historically
shown a low
13
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN d
INVESTMENT
ALTERNATIVE i
f
correlation with most other asset prices (such as
equities) and thus offer an excellent means for portfolio f
diversification. e
r
Inflation Hedge: e
n
As the commodity prices determine price levels and
c
consequently inflation, investing in commodity futures
e
can act as a hedge against inflation.
i
Physical Gold:
n
Physical Gold is a product by which retail and high net
p
worth investors can take investment positions in
r
dematerialized physical gold using the futures market. In
this product, the investor can hold physical gold, in a i
14
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN INVESTMENT
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Unknown persons may not give or reveal true information about their
investment portfolio and hence sample has avoided collecting answers
15
1. Primary Data:
This Data has been collected by me by first-hand .This Data has not been
published yet and is more reliable and authentic .Its validity is greater than
secondary data.
2. Secondary Data:
This includes Data collected by me from a source that has already been
published in any form. The review of literature is based on secondary data. Data
is from books, newspaper, Research Reports, Technical charts, Research
Journals. It can be less valid but its importance is still there. It was difficult to
obtain Primary data in all respect so I preferred Secondary data over primary
data.
A Book on -
Commodity Markets Operations, Instruments and Applications.
CAPITAL MARKET Magazine.
It is a Fortnight (15 days) magazine which displays monthly and
weekly technical charts of Precious Metals, Base Metals and Crude Oil. It also
suggests trading levels of commodity futures.
Press Reports by MCX India -
(Updated on
www.mcxindia.com)
Mr. P.K Singhal, Deputy Managing Director, MCX, said, We
are proud to be the worlds 6th largest commodity futures
19
&
C
E
O,
M
MCX to launch an innovative contract
Business Standard C
X.
March 26th 2012.
Silver 1000 is a deliverable 1-kg silver contract. Silver
1000 is expected to cater to the needs of small jewellers and retail
investors who wish to take physical delivery of a 1-kg silver bar in
demat or physical form.
Silver 1000 will meet the needs of physical market
participants and retail investors. It will enable them to take delivery
of 1-kg silver bar at lower margins, compared to the hitherto 30-kg
bars, said Shreekant Javalgekar, MD
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MCX launches membership drive, to target smaller cities
Under the introductory offer, entry-level membership would be Rs 25
lakh
Business Standard September 5th,
2012.
Commodity rally losing steam post QE3
DNA September 14th 2012.
Gold to ease to Rs 30,500 level on rising rupee: Analysts
Business Line September 30th 2012.
This article reveals that Gold prices are under pressure when Indian
Rupee is stronger as compared to dollar.
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Na
tur
Performanc % Change
e Commodity Futures Exchange JanDec 2009 Jan-Dec 2010 2009
Rankings in Volume Volume
Jan- (Million (Million vs. 2010
Dec 10 Contracts) Contracts)
Intercontinental Exchange
5 (includes 198.67 207.23 4.31%
U.S., U.K. and Canadian
Markets)
Organized:
Commodity Futures contracts always trade on an organized
exchange and it is approved by the Government of India.
Standardized:
Commodity Futures contracts are highly standardized with
the quality, quantity, and delivery date, being predetermined.
Physical Delivery:
Actual delivery of the commodity can be made or
taken on expiry of the contract. Physical delivery requires the member to
provide the exchange with prior delivery information and completion of all
the delivery related formalities as specified by the exchange.
Leverage:
Leverage refers to having control over large cash value of
a commodity with comparatively small levels of capital. In other words, with
a relatively small amount of cash, one can enter into futures contract that is
worth much more than what has to be paid initially. A small change in futures
market can translate into huge gain or loss. The initial margins are set by the
exchange. It may vary from 5% to 8% of total cash value.
Regulation:
In order to avoid any unfair advantages, the regulator and
the commodity futures exchange impose limits on the total amount of
contracts or units of the commodity in which any single person can invest.
These are known as Position limits, and they ensure that no one person can
control the Market Price for a particular commodity. It is regulated by SEBI as
well as FMC.
Inflation Hedge:
GOLD
Indian Scenario
India is the largest market for gold jewellery in the world. 2010 was a
record year for Indian jewellery demand. In local currency terms, Indian
jewellery demand more than doubled in 2010.
A 20% rise in the rupee price of gold combined with a 69% rise in the
volume of demand, pushed up the value of gold demand by 101% to
The rising price of gold, particularly in the latter half of 2010, created a
'virtuous circle' of higher price expectations among Indian consumers,
which fuelled purchases, thereby further driving up local prices.
Silver
Indian Scenario
India's silver demand averages 2500 tonnes per year, whereas the
country's production was around 206.95 tonnes in 2010.
Nearly 60% of India's silver demand comes from farmers and rural India,
who store their savings in silver bangles and coins.
Factors Influencing the Market
Economic events such as national industrial growth, global financial
crisis, recession, and inflation affect metal prices.
Commodity-specific events such as the construction of new production
facilities or processes, unexpected mine or plant closures, or industry
27
Copper
Aluminium
Indian Scenario
Currently,India is the fifth largest producer of aluminium in the
world with a production capacity of 1.6 million MT per annum.
India's primary aluminium consumption in 2009 grew by 7.1% to 1.4
million MT. Its per capita consumption of the metal is 1.3 kg.
Indian aluminium industry consists of four primary producers:
Hindalco, NALCO (a Government of India enterprise), BALCO, and
Vedanta Aluminium.
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Lead
Indian Scenario
In 2009, refined lead production was around 207,000 MT, up from
165,000 MT in 2008.
India's refined lead consumption in 2009 increased by 3% year on
year to 187,000 MT, up from 181,000 MT in 2008.
Indiaimported 125,000 MT of lead in 2009, an increase of 20%
compared with lead imports in 2008.
The main producers of lead are Hindustan Zinc Limited (HZL) and
Indian Lead Limited (ILL).
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Nickel
Zinc
Indian Scenario
India's refined zinc production was 646,000 MT in 2009, an increase
of around 8%-9% from the previous year.
Consumption of refined zinc in India reached 512,000 MT in 2009,
an increase of 20.8% from 2008. lndia's per capita zinc
consumption is at a meager O.4 kg, among the lowest in the world.
exchange rates.
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Crude Oil
Global Scenario
Oil accounts for 40 per cent of the world's total energy demand.
The world consumes about 76 million bbl/day of oil.
United States (20 million bbl/d), followed by China (5.6 million
bbl/d) and Japan (5.4 million bbl/d) are the top oil consuming
countries.
Balance recoverable reserve was estimated at about 142.7 billion
33
OPEC
Indian Scenario
India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries.
Oil accounts for about 30 per cent of India's total energy
consumption. The country's total oil consumption is about 2.2 million
barrels per day. India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil
consumption and it makes no exports.
India faces a large supply deficit, as domestic oil production is
unlikely to keep pace with demand. India's rough production was
only 0.8 million barrels per day.
The oil reserves of the country (about 5.4 billion barrels) are located
primarily in Mumbai High, Upper Assam, Cambay, Krishna-
Godavari and Cauvery basins.
Government has permitted foreign participation in oil exploration, an
activity restricted earlier to state owned entities.
Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing
Mechanism (APM). Now crude price is having a high correlation
34
crude bi-products are allowed to vary +/- 10% keeping in line with
international crude price, subject to certain government laid down
norms/ formulae.
Disinvestment/restructuring of public sector units and complete
deregulation of Indian retail petroleum products sector is under way.
Indian markets have recently made open a new avenue for retail
investors and traders to participate in commodity derivatives. For those
who want to diversify their portfolios beyond shares, insurance and real
estate, commodities are the best option.
However, with the setting up of three multi-commodity exchanges in
the country, retail investors can now trade in commodity futures without having
physical stocks. Commodities Futures actually offer immense potential to
become a separate asset class for market-savvy investors and speculators.
Retail investors, who claim to understand the equity markets, may find
commodities as an interesting market. But commodities are easy to understand
as far as fundamentals of demand and supply are concerned. Retail investors
should understand the risks and advantages of trading in commodities futures
before taking a leap. Historically, pricing in commodities futures has been less
volatile compared with equity and bonds, thus providing an efficient portfolio
diversification option.
Like any other market, the one for commodity futures plays a
valuable role in information pooling and risk sharing. The market mediates
between buyers and sellers of commodities, and facilitates decisions related
to storage and consumption of commodities.
36
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BASIC
Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. All three have electronic trading and
settlement systems and a national presence.
Choosing broker
A potential commodity investor will need only one bank account. He/She will
need a separate commodity demat account from the Multi-Commodity
Exchange Ltd to trade on the MCX just like in stocks.
You will have to enter into a normal account agreements with the broker. These
include the procedure of the Know Your Client format that exist in equity
trading and terms of conditions of the exchanges and broker. Besides you will
need to give you details such as PAN no., bank account no, etc.
The brokerage charges range from 0.05-0.25 per cent of the contract
value. The brokerage will be different for different commodities. It will
also differ based on trading transactions and delivery transactions. In
case of a contract resulting in delivery, the brokerage can be 0.25 1
per cent of the contract value. The
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN INVESTMENT
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Information on commodities
Daily financial newspapers carry spot prices and relevant news and articles
on most commodities. Besides, there are specialised magazines on Bullions
and metals available for subscription like Capital Market. Brokers also
provide research and analysis support. But the information easiest to access is
from websites. Though many websites are subscription-based, a few also
The regulator
The exchanges are regulated by the Forward Markets Commission. Unlike the
equity markets, brokers dont need to register themselves with the regulator.
The FMC & SEBI deals with exchange administration and will seek to
inspect the books of brokers only if foul practices are suspected or if the
exchanges themselves fail to take action. In a sense, therefore, the commodity
exchanges are more self-regulating than stock exchanges. But this could
change if retail participation in commodities grows substantially.
Normally it is between 5 per cent and 9 per cent of the contract value.
The margin is different for each commodity. Just like in equities, in commodities
also there is a system of initial margin and mark-to-market margin. The margin
keeps changing depending on the change in price and volatility.
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give both the buyer and seller the right to demand/give delivery.
What are the commodities suitable for futures trading ?
All the commodities are not suitable for futures trading and for conducting futures
trading. For being suitable for futures trading the market for commodity should be
competitive, i.e., there should be large demand for and supply of the commodity
no individual or group of persons acting in concert should be in a position to
influence the demand or supply, and consequently the price substantially. There
should be fluctuations in price. The market for the commodity should be free from
substantial government control. The commodity should have long shelf-life and be
capable of standardisation and gradation.
Two methods generally used for predicting futures prices are fundamental
analysis and technical analysis. The fundamental analysis is concerned with
basic supply and demand information, such as, weather patterns, carryover
supplies, relevant policies of the Government and agricultural reports. Technical
analysis includes analysis of movement of prices in the past. Many participants
use fundamental analysis to determine the direction of the market, and technical
analysis to time their entry and exist.
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One doesnt need to have the physical commodity or own a contract for the
commodity to enter into a sell contract in futures market. It is simply agreeing
to sell the physical commodity at a later date or selling short. It is possible to
repurchase the contract before the maturity, thereby dispensing with delivery of
goods.
Long position
Hedging
Hedger
Hedger is a user of the market, who enters into futures contract to manage the
risk of adverse price fluctuation in respect of his existing or future asset.
Day-traders
Day traders are speculators who take positions in futures or options contracts
and liquidate them prior to the close of the same trading day.
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The aim of margin money is to minimize the risk of default by either counter
party. The amount of initial margin is so fixed as to ensure that the probability
of loss on account of worst possible price fluctuation, which cannot be met by
the amount of ordinary/initial margin is very low. The Exchanges fix rates of
ordinary/initial margin keeping in view need to balance high security of
contract and low cost of entering into contract.
Initial/ordinary margin
Mark-to-Market margin
Mark-to-market margins are payable based on closing prices at the end of each
trading day. These margins will be paid by the buyer if the price declines and by
the seller if the price rises. This margin is worked out on difference between the
closing/clearing rate and the rate of the contract (if it is enterned into on that
day) or the previous days clearing rate. The Exchange collects these margins
from buyers if the prices decline and pays to the sellers and vice versa.
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Gold Mini Contract December 2012 Future Price in MCX = 31,250 / 10 Gms
th
A client buys Gold Mini December Futures on 10 October 2012 in 31,250.
Say he holds his position up to 1st November and Gold December Futures
Say if he holds his position till 27th December and as on this day the
Gold December Price is 32,000.
= 7,500.
Since it was a December Future Contract it will end on 31st December and
client will be advised to clear his position as he is in profit of 7,500.
His investment was 37,500 and the percentage return in this case
(Note: As per market Volatility a safety margin is kept by the broker as per
the Direction of SEBI which may range from 2 8 %.
In case of Silver
Silver Contract = 30 Kgs
Silver Mini Contract = 5 Kgs
Silver Micro Contract = 1 Kg.
In Case of Copper
Copper Contract = 1,000 Kgs
Copper Mini Contract = 250 Kgs.
In Case of Zinc
Zinc Contract = 5,000 Kgs
Zinc Mini Contract = 1,000 Kgs
45
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In Case of Lead
Lead Contract = 5,000 Kgs
Lead Mini Contract = 1,000 Kgs.
In Case of Aluminium
Aluminium Contract = 5,000 Kgs
Aluminium Mini Contract = 1,000 Kgs.
In Case of Nickel
Nickel Contract = 1,000 Kgs
Nickel Mini Contract = 250 Kgs.
In Case of Crude
Crude Contract = 100 Barrels.
Copper Contract consist of 1000 Kg. Therefore value of the contract will
be = 1,000 x 430 (Future Price) = 4,30,000.
Therefore Margin Money = 4,30,000 x 5 %
= 21,500.
Additional Safety Margin and volatility margin may be required which will
range from 2 4% of the total contract value.
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Script with Expiry Date Price Multiplier Value (Rs.) Margin (Rs.)
5.1 INTRODUCTION
MCX has a strongly established growth path with its aim to offer:
The exporters can hedge their price risk and improve their
50Page
The manufacturers can smooth out the influence of changes in their input
prices very easily. With no futures market, the manufacturer can be
caught between severe short-term price movements of oils and necessity
to maintain price stability, which could only be possible through
sufficient financial reserves that could otherwise be utilized for making
other profitable investments.
production decisions.
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The absence of proper risk management tools would attract the marketing
and processing of commodities to high-risk exposure making it risky
business activity to fund. Even a small movement in prices can eat up a
huge proportion of capital owned by traders, at times making it virtually
impossible to pay back the loan. There is a high degree of reluctance
among banks to fund commodity traders, especially those who do not
manage price risks. If in case they do, the interest rate is likely to be high
and terms and conditions very stringent. This posses a huge obstacle in
the smooth functioning and competition of commodities market.
Hedging, which is possible through futures markets, would cut down the
4, 24, 04,342 Shares are hold by Institutional investors as mentioned above and
64, 27,378 are held by Non-Institutional investor which involves individuals.
4, 88, 31,720 = Total Shares.
Investors
Institutional
NonInstitutional
Institutional Investors 86 %
Non-Institutional Investors 14%
Total 100%
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Investment
22
Yes=39
No=11
78
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Other=4
18% 11%
Share Market=13
31%
40% Bank F.D.=16
Commodity Futures
Market=6
0%
Real Estate=0
Jewellary=4
100%
29 20 Less Risky=8
Stable Returns=20
51 Less Investment
requirements=11
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4. If no, why?
A. Not aware about invest avenues B. Cash Liquidity C. Other
(specify)
27 27
Lack Of awarness=3
Cash Liquidity=5
Risky=3
Present Needs=0
46
46% Know=23
54%
Dont Know=27
A. If YES, why?
B. If NO, why?
Interested= 16
30%
70%
Not Interested=7
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ALTERNATIVE
Out of 23 people majority of the people (70% / 16) who are aware
about about future commodity market are ready to invest in MCX because of
Leverages, Physical trade hedging, speculation, potentials of commodity futures
to enable investor to earn higher profits as compared to other investment
alternatives within a very short period of time.
But due to the high risks and highly volatile nature of almost every
commodity, some people (30% / 7) are not willing to invest in commodity
markets.
13%
4% Bullion=14
19% Metals=4
64%
Agricultural=1
Energy=3
Keeping Stoploss
32
Yes = 14
No=5
74
Stoploss Ratings
16
47 11
1=3
2=2
3=5
26 4=9
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Less Risky=6
21%
48%
Risky=9
31%
Very
Risky=14
medium to short-term will definitely make profits and if they happen to make
loss it will be very small as compared to traders.
Informative=14
28%
72%
Not Informative=36
65
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futures market.
In case the crude oil price in similar contract falls to 4700. Then he
will incur loss of 20,000 Rs.
= 68,000 Rs.
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A STUDY ON MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE (MCX) AS AN INVESTMENT
ALTERNATIVE
Here, a client is at deficit of 8,000 that is his loss which has exceeded
his total money in his account. In this case the broker will ask for additional
money which will be more than 8,000 Rs. as per the volatility in the price
of crude oil.
Hence, a client has to have certain cash with him in addition to his
investment in MCX account or he has to have a reasonable bank balance.
Note: In MCX clients can sell the commodities futures even if they do not own
them that are before they buy such commodity Futures contract and it is known
as short-sell. If any client initiates a short-sell he must keep a strict stoploss or
otherwise he will face unlimited risk. The other thing in MCX is that never
Trade in LIMITS provided by brokers.
futures.
With intense competition, all brokers offer advice to their MCX clients
and they are many time available in their respective web-sites. Also
MCX through their online press release has take efforts to make investors
aware about current market conditions, risks involved and opportunities.
ANNEXURE
NAME -------------------------------------------------------------------------
(specify)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. If no, why?
A. Not aware about invest avenues B. Cash Liquidity C. Other
(specify)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. Yes B. No
Stoploss Ratings
4) Most Important.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
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9. What is the margin requirement that the investor has to comply with
while trading in different commodities in MCX?
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10. What are the new developments expected in the commodity market?
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Bibliography
www.mcxindia.com
www.futuresinvesting.com
www.onlinetradingconcepts.com
www.commodities.about.com
www.investopedia.com
www.commoditycentral.com
www.thefinancials.com
www.commodityonline.com
www.angelbroking.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.commodityliveresearch.com
www.tradingarticles.com
www.indiainfoline.com
www.kotakcommodities.com
- Vijay L Bhambwani.
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