Balanced Growth (BG)
Balanced Growth (BG)
Balanced Growth (BG)
Dear Investor,
For optimal diversification we apply the principle of CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) where extensive research
has shown that portfolios should generally consist of between 15 and 25 companies to diversify away systematic risk.
This principle of course applies not just to your equity portfolio but is relevant to your entire pool of assets as a wise
man once said you should never hold all of your eggs in one basket.
The overriding objective of the portfolio is to offer investors a mix of income and capital appreciation although the
strategy focusses on overall return. For example if an investor buys a share offering a dividend of say 4% and the
share price goes up by say 12%, this amounts to three years of future income. Therefore it may be advisable to sell
the share thereby foregoing the future dividend payments but in return capturing the capital appreciation.
Similarly if a company cuts its dividend or falls in price due to say a profits warning, it may be appropriate to sell
the share even though it was initially purchased for its dividend. After all it would be poor management advice to
hold onto a share which falls in value by say 25% even if it was paying a healthy dividend of 5%. This is because it
would take 5 years to recoup the capital loss during which time the money could potentially have been used more
effectively elsewhere.
The ratio between capital growth and dividends can be shifted depending on your circumstances and specific income
requirements although if you are looking primarily for income you should consider following the High Dividend
Income (HDI) strategy or Cautious model portfolio.
Stop losses are used only at either key levels of support or at pre-determined specific percentage points below the
entry purchase price. However stop losses are not always deemed necessary as certain companies (e.g. high dividend
payers) will have an inbuilt protection measure which includes an increasing dividend yield as the share price falls.
Individual holdings will be monitored on a daily basis to ensure that specific corporate news and general market data
is reacted upon accordingly. Sometimes taking no action is the best form of response particularly if the market over-
reacts which tends to be the case both to good or bad news. In other cases it may be appropriate to either reduce a
holding or add to a position depending on how severe and genuine the news is interpreted to be.
The portfolio can be rebalanced if it becomes skewed towards a particular stock or sector unless the view is taken
that an over-weight bias in that investment area should be encouraged. Similarly a sector or investment area that is
struggling to make an impact may be highlighted with an underweight or avoid bias and the exposure to this sector
reduced accordingly.
The core approach will tend to offer a buy and hold investment approach whilst the satellite holdings will focus on
shorter term trading opportunities looking specifically for capital appreciation. However how long shares should be
held for will depend on many factors including the conditions of the market at the time. For example in a bull market
a buy and hold approach works best, but in a sideways or bear market a more active trading approach will generally
yield higher returns.
In the event that the view is taken that the market is over-valued the higher risk investments (companies with a
higher beta) may be sold and either reinvested into lower risk shares or remain in cash. Therefore the portfolio is
likely to be in cash at some points during the year with the intention of minimising risk-exposure. For how long will
depend on market conditions and prevailing new buying opportunities.
Portfolios can be protected through the use of hedging tools included futures and options although this would sit as
a separate entity outside of the portfolio.
Core
Satellite ensure that your core portfolio continues to house only those
shares which are genuinely defensive in order to minimise
overall risk.
Finally its important to note that the information given in this report is likely to change over time. After all we look at the
markets on a daily basis and depending on news flow, corporate earnings, and general market conditions our strategies
and stock selection will change to reflect these changes. However the compositional structure of this model portfolio
should give you a very good understanding of the basic principles behind the strategy.
The utility sector is a very defensive arena which means that it has a low correlation to economic activity and generally
performs well in times of market volatility. This means that when global stock markets face heavy selling pressure due to
geo-political events (e.g. Syria uprising, Ukraine-Russian conflict) or a global economic slowdown (i.e. falling GDP) there
is often a flight to safety from high risk to low risk assets.
This will either mean that investors move out of equities into fixed income products (bonds) or that they stay within
equities but look for more defensive shares. Similarly some investors may choose to buy into gold or even the Swiss
Franc as a form of asset protection. However fund managers will generally rebalance portfolios along the lines of moving
into more defensive shares and as a result utility stocks will tend to benefit.
Of course conversely the opposite is also true. In a strong and rising market it makes sense to shift your investments
away from defensive shares into more aggressive shares as the high-beta companies such as the banks, commodity and
telecom stocks are likely to gain most in such conditions.
A3 TECHNOLOGY
Technology is generally regarded as a relatively volatile and therefore high risk sector. However the one stock that for
the time being at least, appears to be the exact opposite of that is Vodafone which is why it deserves a mention as part
of our core portfolio. Its also not uncommon for the same sector to appear in both the core and the satellite depending
on the companies in question. After all you will often have very low risk and very high risk shares within the same sector
and the difference in risk is usually only because of the difference in comparative size between the two firms.
VODAFONE (VOD)
In 2014 and following the 51 billion windfall which Vodafone shareholders received, there are now mixed views as to
whether VOD is likely to retain its title as one of the biggest and consistent dividend payers in the FTSE. Those against
point to Vodafone focussing mainly on Europe at the expense of the US which they believe will put cash flow under
pressure. Those still in the Vodafone loyalty camp point to their beloved being a potential takeover target for AT&T. To
be honest its a difficult one to call but certainly as far as reliable and established blue-chip dividend paying companies
are concerned, it would be very premature to be writing off this telecoms giant just yet.
A4 FOOD RETAILERS
Food retailers are generally good, solid companies to have as part of any medium to long term portfolio. However price
wars and falling margins means that you have to be ready to reduce exposure to this sector if and when things start
heating up. Unfortunately long gone are the days where you could buy these companies and forget about them.
Further to this we have also seen a greater focus on capital expenditure and there is an expectation that the firms Oil
Products business will be sufficiently restructured to improve profitability yet further. A newly appointed Chief Executive
at the helm is also good news for a company that is committed to positive change.
A5 DEFENCE
A6 BANKS
HSBC (HSBA)
You wouldnt normally expect to see a bank as a core holding due to its volatility. However this bank is very different
to the rest and we feel that the recent positive comments emanating from the HSBC boardroom is not without good
reason. Early indications suggest that economic growth in mainland China is finally stabilising with positive implications
for Hong Kong and the rest of Asia-Pacific. Also due to its geographical positioning and strong balance sheet it is one of
the few banks that didnt go cap in hand to the Chancellor during the financial crisis, and so with no control relinquished
to the State. This means that HSBC will retain greater decision making power when it comes to employing the best staff
by offering the most attractive remuneration packages.
The firm also managed to miss the deadly bullets that we now know are
the PPI, LIBOR and interest-rate swap selling scandals as well as the ongoing
banker bonus saga. All in all it remains one of the most profitable and most
strongly capitalised banks in the world and that can only be a good thing
for investors. The fact that its operations are more focussed towards the
Far East and will have less contagious risk when Europe finally implodes on
itself is also probably a very good thing. Finally it should be remembered
that HSBC has consistently offered shareholders a high dividend and is
likely to continue to do so for the long term.
Also and in the same way that the core portfolio strategy is bespoke to your individual needs so too are the satellite
holdings. This means that you are not restricted to the list detailed below and indeed can add or take away according to
your individual requirements.
B1 HOUSE BUILDERS/CONSTRUCTION
The house builders have had a fantastic period of growth in recent times
and continue to be one of the favourite sectors in the medium term. This
is partly due to the recovery that we are beginning to see in the economy
and partly due to the Governments commitment to supporting long
term affordable housing construction projects. As a result we believe
that having at least some exposure to this sector is important.
However its still hard to fathom how the house builders wont continue to do well in the next two to three years
although it would be foolish to think that they can sustain the meteoric rise that we saw in 2013 and to a lesser degree
in 2014. Nevertheless, the fact remains that there is a chronic shortage of affordable housing in the UK and particularly
in the South East. Thats why at the top of our list of developers is residential property company Bellway which has
continued to experience strong demand for new homes. All the recent trading updates also suggest that the group has
great promise.
B3 MEDIA
The role played by WPP in the Winter Olympics in Sochi and the 2014 football World Cup in Brazil of course has also
presented huge opportunities for further brand awareness and future sustainable growth on a truly global scale.
B4 BEVERAGES
B6 BANKS
The banks remain very much in the public eye and usually for the wrong reasons. It seems that the lessons of the 2007-8
crisis have still not been learned and of course the subsequent scandals involving everything from PPI to unfair interest
rates collusion have done this sector no favours at all. Furthermore the regulators seem to have a point to prove given
the criticism that they received in terms of their handling of the banks. All in all, it paints a fairly dim picture but we
must also recognise that despite the odds the banks continue to make huge profits and there is no doubt that they will
eventually rise again to their former glory. They are also volatile and so are perfect component satellite parts for a short
term trading strategy for capital growth.
B7 GENERAL RETAILERS
The net result is something which doesnt happen very often which is a win-win-win situation for the firm, existing
shareholders and new investors. The clever part in all of this of course is that it enhances the flexibility of the firms debt
package and further strengthens the balance sheet whilst doing so at a reasonable rate of interest.
B8 FINANCIAL SERVICES
B9 AIRLINES
In the middle of continuing geopolitical tensions between
numerous countries around the world that find war an easier path
to follow than peace, there seems to be a recurring fear about the
airline industry and how it might be affected. However the truth
is that airlines, like the banks, always seem to find a way through.
They also exhibit some pretty decent volatility which is what you
need if you are looking for capital appreciation. The other benefit
in trading airline stocks is that you can take short, medium or long
term investment approaches as the overall direction appears to
be positive, although rising oil prices need to be considered in
conjunction with any investment strategy.
However and as with any cloud, there is often a silver lining, although in the case of the mining sector we are lucky to
have three of them, RIO, BLT and ANTO. Weve only listed BLT in this report but the other two could also easily deserve
a mention also. Its worth nothing that each of these picks have the added safety net of companies which offer a yield
which is rare when it comes to miners. At least in this way and assuming that commodities continue to face downward
pressure, a falling share price on a dividend paying miner (even if the dividend is not covered) will improve the yield
which in turn should offer some level of support.
Furthermore, Capita, which is one of the leading FTSE 100 support service solutions providers, also extended its 10-year
strategic partnership with Southampton City Council by a further five years which is estimated to generate additional
revenue to Capita of approximately 124m. The long term prospects of this business look set to grow and with a dividend
yield of around 3% its a share which gives an investor a bit of income plus the potential of reasonable long term capital
growth at a sensible level of risk.
Many companies in this sector have suffered a fall in price which makes their dividend yields even more attractive and so
you now have the peculiar situation of high yields and potentially strong capital growth. Of course the volatility is such
that this would be regarded as a higher risk investment area which is why we would suggest only a limited amount of
exposure in this area.
However generally speaking the Balanced Growth portfolio is categorised as medium risk and is a sensible and
measured approach to giving a reasonable balance of both income and growth. We would regard this model portfolio
to be suitable for most investors, particularly those who have previous stock market experience and sufficient funds to
invest comfortably in the market.
For this portfolio you can either use cash funds from your bank account, or alternatively you may choose to restructure
an existing share portfolio that you already hold. If you choose the cash option you can either write a cheque or make a
direct bank transfer (BACS). If on the other hand you wish to use your existing share portfolio, simply complete a stock
transfer form and your share holdings will be transferred electronically from your existing broker to your new account
with us. Dont worry we do all the form-filling for you at no cost and we will even contact your existing broker on your
behalf so you dont have to. You can even transfer an existing stock ISA or SIPP account.
Once the cash (or shares) have arrived your advisor will begin the process of implementing the agreed strategy on your
behalf. Throughout the whole process you maintain full control so that you can adapt the parameters according to
varying market conditions and indeed changes to your own circumstances. You can even have your money back if you
wish at any time with no lock-in periods or penalties.