ADVANCED READER COPY

Our Cosmic Story

by

MATHEW ANDERSON
ourcosmicstory@gmail.com

Thank you dear reader for your interest in my latest book!

Our Cosmic Story is a big picture view of our Universe and the
potential it has for life and civilization. We start by looking back at the
story of Earth and its great civilizations, understand how life itself
evolved Homo sapiens, and then explore the makeup of the Universe to
gain insight into the chance of other sentient creatures living elsewhere.

Our Cosmic Story was officially published on January 5th, 2017. If

you have any questions or thoughts while reading the book, please do
reach out to me at any time.

Available copies at: www.amazon.com/author/mathewanderson

Please also follow: @OurCosmicStory on Twitter and Facebook

Thanks again!

Mathew Anderson
Our Cosmic Story

OUR COSMIC STORY

Exploring Life, Civilization, and the Universe

by

MATHEW ANDERSON

edited by

JENNIFER NORIAN

audiobook by

TIN KHUONG

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 Mathew C. Anderson

OUR COSMIC STORY

Exploring Life, Civilization, and the Universe

Copyright 2017 Mathew Anderson

All Rights Reserved.
First Edition: January 2017

Cover art by Mathew Anderson

Robot art by Freepik

Published by Amazon
www.amazon.com/author/mathewanderson

Additional copies available at:

www.ourcosmicstory.com

No part of this book may be used, reproduced, or transmitted in

any manner without written permission of the writer, except in the
case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For
information, please write: ourcosmicstory@gmail.com

Printed and bound in the United States of America

by Amazon: www.amazon.com/author/mathewanderson

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 Our Cosmic Story

For All Great Explorers

Equipped with his five senses, man explores the Universe around
him and calls the adventure Science. Edwin Hubble

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 Mathew C. Anderson

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The idea and motivation to start writing this book came from a
personal quest to understand the Universe and our special place on
this pale blue dot called Earth. I felt the attempt must be made to
gain a better understanding of how it all came together, what the
chances are for it to do the same elsewhere, but perhaps just in a
little bit different of a way to be interesting to discover.
I always say that writing a book is just a third of the battle, with
editing making up the bulk of the work. There have been more
drafts of the book than I can count. The more valued contributions
have come from family, friends, and other contributors. I am
thankful for the patience of everyone, especially those who let me
pester them to read a chapter or look over a phrase, often when the
subject was not yet fully formed on paper, but just a drifting image
in my mind. Writing a book is often seen as a solitary affair, but it
has been anything but that in my experience.
For all editing efforts, I am thankful to many individuals,
including but not limited to: Ammy Sriyunyongwat, Ben Roye,
Chuck Bird, Cindy Anderson, Cora Nelson, David Zhong, Jason
Searcy, Jessica Anderson, Jennifer Norian, Josh Maida, Michael
Rogers, Richard Garriott, Scott Jennings, Starr Long, Tin Khuong,
Tony Medrano, as well as the thousands of my social-network
friends and acquaintances!

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Our Cosmic Story

CONTENTS

Acknowledgments iv
Introduction: A Big Picture View vii
Definitions x

CHAPTERS

1. Setting the Stage for Life and Civilization 13

2. Evolution and the Building Blocks of Life 25

3. The Rise of Civilization on Earth 49

4. The Engine of Modern Civilization 71

5. A House of Cards: The Collapse of Civilization 101

6. Exploring the Cosmos 125

7. The Boundaries of Habitability 151

8. The Scale of Things 169

9. Is Anybody Out There? 185

Summary: A Lonely Pale Blue Dot 215

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Mathew C. Anderson

OUR COSMIC STORY

Exploring Life, Civilization, and the Universe

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 Our Cosmic Story

INTRODUCTION A BIG PICTURE VIEW

When scientists are asked what they are working on, their
response is seldom 'Finding the origin of the Universe' or
'Seeking to cure cancer.' Usually, they will claim to be tackling a
very specific problem - a small piece of the jigsaw that builds up
the big picture. - Martin Rees

Precious little time exists where we get a chance to reflect upon

life, to smell the roses or to look at the cosmic picture. Yet it is
important to find the time for such reflection when the grand
Universe is on our doorstep. How did life get started? How did our
fantastically complex civilization develop? When will we
encounter other civilizations out there, if ever? This book will
explore our history and place in the Universe, examine why Earth
is so hospitable for life and civilization, and consider the likelihood
for life to exist on other worlds, some that may be far more
different than our own.
The quest to reach beyond the confines of our world is a natural
consequence of being a very small part of a grand and dynamic
Universe. Looking up at the sky instills within us some expectation
that we are not alone, and we wonder if there is not something
amazing happening out there somewhere. This sense of awe may
not be exclusive to Earthlings; for in a galaxy truly far away, there
could be creatures with similar musings as they peer towards our
corner of the Universe. The idea that we share a common

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 Mathew C. Anderson

experience with others in the cosmos is something to keep in mind

while reading this book.
Regardless of the possibility of countless other life forms
existing on rocky barges adrift in the cosmos, we should still hold
the belief that humanity is special. Our world is rare enough that
we may appreciate it just as much as if we are in fact alone. Recent
studies have shown that, while lifes ingredients are common
throughout the Universe, the exact quantity and assortment of
chemicals and minerals that make up Earth are unlikely to exist
elsewhere. This may have significant consequences for life and
evolution on another world thats close in properties, but not quite
the same as Earth.
For a close-to-home example, both Mars and Venus can be
considered distant cousins of Earth and once thought to be
habitable, though you wouldn't want to book a vacation to either
of them anytime soon. While Mars and Venus are rocky bodies
with solid cores, Mars today lacks a dense oxygen-rich atmosphere
and liquid water on its surface because the planet is simply too
small. Venus is nearly the same size as Earth, but is far too close
to our scorching Sun. There are many other variables of
habitability to consider as well, many of which we will explore in
upcoming chapters. The physical makeup of Earth and how it
compares to other planets in the solar system is an important
starting point for understanding where we may find life elsewhere
in the Universe.
Even though we may currently be well off on Earth, humanity
should make every effort to voyage into space, if only for the
practical reason that our planet will not support life forever. We
may one day need to flee Earth in order to preserve the existence
of our species from a variety of cosmic and terrestrial extinction
events, like asteroid impacts and supervolcanoes. Currently, all of
our proverbial eggs are dangerously in one basket. While the lack
of evidence of life on other worlds may suggest at first that the
endeavor to colonize space is futile, this is a dangerous assumption
we just cannot afford to make.

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The act of colonizing space will of course come at initially

great cost, but in the long run it may pay off in ways we cannot
even imagine. Many great explorers like Marco Polo, Sir Francis
Drake, Ferdinand Magellan, and Charles Darwin risked their lives
and boldly faced peril to sail across vast oceans in the name of
science and discovery. Diseases and other formidable barriers
attempted to stop them from making progress, but they pushed on
in the hope that a better future lay ahead. These great explorers,
and many great thinkers throughout history, have helped to lay the
foundation our civilization stands on today.
Whatever our future may hold, let us not forget where we came
from or fail to cherish our home. Protecting Earth for as long as
possible may be important for facilitating our ability to leave it
someday and perhaps in our need to return to it, should space be
more unforgiving than we had realized. Our planet is not a place
that we can spoil with the assumption that a better one will
eventually be found. Assuming that our long-term existence is
assured will be the ultimate undoing of our way of life. Many of
Earths past civilizations made this arrogant assumption about
their destinies, and it resulted in their swift demise.
In order to begin to understand how humanity has achieved all
that we have so far, and further our chances of carrying our
knowledge into space, there is one thing that must always be with
us: a collective sense of hope and drive to improve the whole of
society. The motivation to pass down prosperity to future
generations has the power to be a catalyst for expanding into a
spacefaring civilization that can counter the constant threats
against our world. While great things will still be accomplished if
we stay grounded to Earth, it would be tragic if future generations
one day forget that we once long ago nearly made it to the stars,
but did not.
I hope that this book heightens your sense of wonder about our
tiny but special place in the cosmos, as well as fires your
imagination and intensifies your intrigue in exploring the potential
for other worlds where we may one day call home.

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COMMON DEFINITIONS

The following definitions can be found to vary, so I chose ones

that are fit for the books subject matter. Definitions are either from
or based on the Oxford English Dictionary (OED), NASA.gov,
Space.com, or other official sources:

Civilization: The process by which a society or place reaches

an advanced stage of social development and organization.

Convection: The movement caused within a fluid by the

tendency of hotter and therefore less dense material to rise, and
colder, denser material to sink under the influence of gravity,
which consequently results in transfer of heat.

Cosmos/Universe: Space as seen as a well-ordered whole.

Cosmos expands its definition of Universe via the multiverse,
parallel universes, and additional dimensions.

Evidence: The available body of facts or information

indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid.

Evolution: The process by which different kinds of living

organisms are thought to have developed and diversified from
earlier forms during Earths history.

Habitable Zone: The Habitable Zone is the distance from a

star where liquid water can exist on a planets surface.

Life: The condition that distinguishes animals and plants from

other matter, including a capacity for growth, reproduction,
functional activity, and continual change preceding death.

M-Dwarf (Red Dwarf): A dwarf star, ranging in mass from

one-tenth to one-half the mass of the Sun, whose relatively cool
surface temperature makes it appear red-orange in color.

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Natural Selection: The process whereby organisms better

adapted to their environment tend to survive and produce more
offspring. The main process that brings about evolution.

Planetary System: A star or multiple stars that has orbiting

planets. This is not the same as a star system, which is a star or
multiple stars that is not referenced in the context of planets.

Precession: The movement of the axis of a spinning body

around another axis due to torque (such as gravitational influence)
acting to change the direction of the first axis.

Reason: The power of a mind to think, understand, and form

judgments by a process of logic based on known reality.

Science: The intellectual and practical activity encompassing

the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the physical
and natural world through observation and experiment.

Scientific Method: A method of procedure that has

characterized natural science since the 17th century, consisting in
systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the
formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses.

Super-Earth: A super-Earth is a planet that is larger than

Earth, but not so large that it has the properties of a gas giant.

Theory: An idea used to account for a situation or justify a

course of action. i.e. the theory of gravity.

Tidal Locking: Where an object's orbital period matches its

rotational period. An example is Earths moon always facing the
same way toward Earth.

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Mathew C. Anderson

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 Our Cosmic Story

CHAPTER 1: SETTING THE STAGE

FOR LIFE AND CIVILIZATION
The surface of the Earth is the shore of the cosmic ocean. From
it we have learned most of what we know. Recently, we have
waded a little out to sea, enough to dampen our toes or, at most,
wet our ankles. The water seems inviting. The ocean calls.
- Carl Sagan

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In Star Trek: The Next Generation, an entity called Q is

teaching Captain Picard a lesson.1 Q transports the captain back in
time to a primordial hellish Earth. As volcanoes spew lava all
around them with a bleak sky overhead, Q kneels down and dips
his hand in a pond of a thick, oily substance beside a massive rock
outcropping.
Q says to Picard, See this? This is you. Im serious! Right
here, life is about to form on this planet for the very first time. A
group of amino acids are about to combine to form the first
protein. Picard squints down as if he can actually discern this
activity.
Q continues, Strange, isnt it? Everything you know, your
entire civilization, it all begins right here in this little pond of goo.
The Universe had no obligation to create anything at all, yet
life managed to make a grand entrance on at least one tiny pale
blue dot in a truly spectacular way. Out of all the potentially
habitable planets, it could be that 99.99% of them only ever
produce single-celled organisms and nothing more complex. Earth
may be the result of a grand natural experiment tucked away in a
quiet suburban corner of the galaxy. We should feel lucky to have
won the cosmic lottery! Lets explore our special home in the
Universe.

A PARADISE ON EARTH

A sunny weekend has arrived, so you take your family on a

road trip to some distant countryside cabin. The breeze whips
through your hair, and a warmth saturates your skin from the Suns
rays that pierce the partly cloudy sky. The road follows a stream
as your family glimpses a deer licking up water along the streams
edge. A fish jumps out of the water briefly. A side road through a
dense forest takes you up a winding climb for another hour before
you reach the cabin, nestled along a pristine glacial lake. As you
get out of the car, you can hear birds singing in the trees and the
croaking of frogs at the lakes edge.

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 Our Cosmic Story

What makes this scene so beautiful? It appeals to us because

the planet is not only suited well for life, but life is suited well for
the planet. That is to say that over the billions of years of
evolutionary history, both Earth and life have changed to become
more supportive of and compatible with each other. A blue sky and
crystal clear lake surrounded by forests is beautiful to us because
we have evolved to view it that way. It is now instinctual for most
people to see beauty in nature. To be in awe of nature leads humans
to treat nature with respect, which helps with our survival.

The Anthropic Principle

The relationship of Earth and its life may apply to other

planets. There may be life in every system we point our telescopes
toward. The pessimistic view, on the other hand, is that Earth is the
only planet able to support life in the entire Universe. While we
have limited knowledge of what conditions life can adapt to, we
do know that in our own solar system, Earth is exceptional. Our
planet certainly appears fine-tuned for life when compared to every
other planet, and scientists have debated how this came to be.
One idea for why life exists at all is the anthropic principle,
proposed by Brandon Carter in 1974.2 The principle states that
because life requires a very specific set of laws and conditions for
it to appear, the Universe to which life finds itself must by default
be compatible with supporting life, otherwise life would not have
arisen in the first place. A stronger view of the principle states that
only life bearing universes would ever appear anyway, and there
is no alternative for life to be selected for or against.
Others use the anthropic principle to suggest the Universe was
tuned in advance to suit lifes requirements. Douglas Adams, an
English writer, famed for The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy,
illustrates the problem with this quoted passage:
Imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, This
is an interesting world I find myself in, an interesting hole I find
myself in, fits me rather neatly, doesnt it? In fact, it fits me
staggeringly well! It must have been made to have me in it! This

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is such a powerful idea that as the Sun rises in the sky and the air
heats up and as, gradually, the puddle gets smaller and smaller,
its still frantically hanging on to the notion that everythings
going to be alright, because this world was meant to have him in
it, was built to have him in it; so the moment he disappears catches
him rather by surprise. I think this may be something we need to
be on the watch out for.- Douglas Adams
Earth may also apply to the anthropic principle in its natural fit
for life. The conclusion then is that there should be other Earth-
like worlds in the Universe, even though we have yet to discover,
or at least confirm, any of them.
Although the ever increasing count of planets in other star
systems indicate that our being exceptional is highly unlikely, it is
still possible that Earth is the only place in the Universe to support
life. This possibility would suggest that the anthropic principle is
incorrect, and Earth and its abundance of life is a fluke. That we
have detected neither lower life forms nor more evolved life forms
on other worlds can also be viewed as supporting this theory. What
an epic and humbling lottery we have won indeed if our planet is
the only place with life in the Universe!

AN EVOLVING PLANET

Earth was created in six days, and on the seventh day God
became pooped and needed to rest wait, thats not the right story.
Earth actually formed 4.54 billion years ago when the solar system
coalesced from a collapsing cloud of gas and dust.

A Shooting Gallery of Billiards

For the first few million years after its birth, our solar system
was a chaotic place. Collisions of objects was a non-stop affair.
Just as Earths molten surface was solidifying, a Mars-sized object
collided with our planet, and some of the debris coalesced to form
the moon. The remaining debris eventually fell back to the planet.

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 Our Cosmic Story

Millions of years later there was another series of impact

events known as the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB). This
second wave is thought to have been caused by a shift in the orbits
of the two gas giants, Jupiter and Saturn. As these planets
migrated, at times toward the Sun and at times away from it, they
knocked around the smaller inner planets so much that any
primordial planets within the orbit of Mercury were sent careening
into the Sun, or ejected out of the solar system entirely. If this had
not happened, the solar system could very well have more than a
dozen planets, including several larger versions of Earth-like
worlds called super-Earths.
The chaotic time of the LHB helped Earth to develop its current
life-sustaining conditions. The rain of comets and meteors, rich
with water, vaporized upon impact, depositing on our planet
complex organic compounds. If the Late Heavy Bombardment had
not occurred, or came much later, Earth might only have a fraction
of the water it does now. One isolated ocean or an endless
landscape of large lakes may have formed instead.

Earths Composition

From the core of our planet to the atmosphere surrounding it,

each layer plays a critical role in creating and maintaining
conditions suitable for life.3
After the Mars-sized body hit Earth, the heaviest of materials
were absorbed into the deep bowels of the planet, including
precious metals like silver, gold and platinum. Nearly all of these
elements sank right to Earths core, thousands of kilometers below
the surface (and completely out of reach of any possible mining
operation). The remaining elements formed the outer core, mantle
and crust. If life was ever to emerge on Earth, these lighter
elements would be required.
Earth later obtained additional heavy elements from the
bombardment of comets and asteroids. Earths veneer of asteroid-
deposited heavy metals would later be crucial for powering human
civilization. Most of the electronic devices we use today have

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small amounts of a group of these metals called rare earth elements

(REEs). There are more than a dozen rare earth elements mixed
throughout the planets crust, such as terbium, used in televisions,
neodymium, used in hybrid automobiles, and thulium, used in
high-efficiency lasers. Interestingly, many REEs are actually quite
abundant. What gives them their name is the difficulty in
separating the metals from other surrounding metals.

A Restless Planet

Because the temperature of the crust is so much cooler than at

the core, the inner material convects. Convection is the process that
heats your food evenly in the oven. The coils at the bottom heat
the air, causing the air to rise and then cool at the top, where it falls
down the sides and back to the coils. Convection in the Earth
moves material from the crust down into the mantle, and
eventually back up again via volcanoes. This movement also gives
rise to the planetary magnetic field.
Just like how we breathe in oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide,
Earth also has a natural capacity to absorb and release gases.
Carbon dioxide is a powerful greenhouse gas that would cause
Earth to overheat if there was no way to regulate how much CO is 2

in the atmosphere. The planet absorbs carbon dioxide out of the

atmosphere when rocks and plant growth settle on the ocean
bottom, where the carbon dioxide becomes baked into the crust.
The heavier oceanic basalt crust is eventually pulled under the
continents and into the mantle. The material melts and safely
releases the stored carbon dioxide under kilometers of molten rock.
The process of carbon capture takes a minimum of hundreds of
years to occur, so the current carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will
likely remain for the rest of our civilizations near-term existence,
unless we can artificially pull that carbon dioxide back out of the
atmosphere through more expedient (and safe) means.
Earth is always changing. The planets plates are constantly in
a state of movement. While a few centimeters per year might not
seem like a lot, over 100 million years this will shift a continent

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 Our Cosmic Story

3,000 kilometers! Pent up forces over decades will cause a sudden

release of energy, creating earthquakes and the deformation of
nearby land areas. As the continents push against each other, they
will build up huge mountain ranges like the beautiful Rocky
Mountains, islands like the Hawaiian Islands, and meandering
rivers like the Nile River Delta and the great Amazon.
In addition to the continents, the oceans help the Earth to
actively regulate itself. A significant amount of water is being
warmed in some areas and cooled in others, constantly generating
mighty storms. These storms begin as small, low-pressure systems
in the warmer latitudes, quickly grow and migrate to cooler areas,
where they eventually reach land and cause storm surges. Regular
El Nio and La Nia events over the oceans affect entire
hemispheres with altered wind and rainfall patterns, resulting in
severe droughts like those in California, or mudslides in Leyte
Island, Philippines, from too much rainfall in a given season.
Earth is also constantly moving through space, revolving
around the Sun once per year and once around the galaxy every
several million years. The planet also shifts on its axis slightly over
thousands of years, which causes long-term seasonal changes that
in turn affect the survival of life. The shifts in axis can also disrupt
civilizations with drought, as was the case with the Mayans, or
provide a burst of sustenance with decades of plentiful rainfall.
Shifts in axis can also cause or exacerbate ice ages. During the
last ice age, sea levels dropped by dozens of meters as oceans
became completely covered in surface ice. This resulted in a land
bridge between Asia and America that our ancestors discovered
just as they were entering Siberia. Bands of people slowly migrated
from Asia to America over the land bridge for thousands of years
before the bridge submerged again in newly rising seas.

EARTHS HABITABILITY

Water is the first thing to consider when gauging a planets

habitability. On Earth, wherever water is found, life is also found.
Expansive oceans help to regulate atmospheric temperatures and

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ensure a robust hydrologic cycle. There is not too much water

though that would result in a water world (a world covered 100%
by a single ocean). Water covers 71% of Earths surface, leaving
enough land area available for life to evolve into more complex
forms, including a form that would one day end up building a
technological civilization.
Earths atmosphere also plays a major role in making the planet
hospitable to life. The atmosphere is composed of 78% Nitrogen,
21% Oxygen, and other trace gases. Oxygen levels in the
atmosphere have fluctuated in the past, from trace amounts at
nearly 0% to as high as 35%. Oxygen also made and maintains
the ozone layer, which is critical to shielding life from harmful UV
radiation from the Sun. The rays that do get through can cause a
severe sunburn, or worse, a facial wrinkle.
Gravity is another habitability requirement that keeps
everything together. Gravity keeps our feet on the ground as the
planet spins at 1,670 kilometers per hour. Earth would have to spin
about ten times faster for objects to be ejected into orbit. Humans
could technically survive without gravity, as we do on the
international space station, but there would be serious side effects.
The constant downward stress exerted on our bones keeps them
from losing density. Intracranial pressure of the head is also kept
in check, preventing long-term eye damage. Everything from
eating, digestion, and excretion are assisted by gravity.
Earths moon is one of the largest in the solar system. Having
a large moon helps our planet to maintain its tilt toward the Sun.
Earths tilt is currently at 23.4 degrees, resulting in relatively mild
changes in the seasons. Without a large enough moon to stabilize
the tilt, climate shifts would cause the most severe of ice ages to
occur every few thousand years, instead of every few hundred
thousand years. Each ice age would be more extreme as well.
Warming trends would have a similarly exaggerated effect.
The rotational rate of the Earth is important in determining
surface wind speeds, and to some extent assists the oceans in
maintaining an overall mild variance in global temperature. Our
planet today has a pleasant average wind speed of about 10

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kilometers per hour. This is fast enough to scatter seeds and other
particles necessary for reproduction, but it is not so fast that trees
are uprooted. When Earth was less than a billion years old and a
day was just 12 hours long, winds were so extreme that standing
upright would have been difficult, if not impossible.
The properties of Earths inner material may be the most
important part of the planet. Earths active interior creates a fluidic
dynamo the physical motion of material in the planets outer
core, which generates a globally encompassing magnetic field. The
field not only protects life like the atmospheric ozone layer does,
but it also keeps the solar wind at bay, thus preventing the
atmosphere from being eroded. Without an atmosphere, the oceans
would quickly sublimate into space.

USABLE REAL ESTATE

Earth may be a life-rich planet, but it is still carefully balanced

on a knifes edge in terms of its ability to support life. In fact, the
majority of its surface is uninhabitable. Getting a tan on the
beaches of Bora Bora or El Nido may make us feel like we live in
a global paradise, but a quick trip to chilly Antarctica, or the driest
non-polar place on the planet, the Atacama Desert, we would
quickly realize that not all of this world is suited to humans.
As the saying goes in the real estate business, everything is
location, location, location. Just 15% of Earths land is worth
occupying, whether to extract resources or to settle. Very few
would build a cabin in the middle of the Atacama Desert, or on the
ice shelves of Antarctica.
While most of the Earth is not fit for human settlement, the
remaining total area that is fit for our use is still generous. Even
though human population is now more than 7 billion persons, there
is enough area to build (though not necessarily sustain) an
advanced technological civilization for perhaps as many as 15-20
billion. Still, we are ruining much of the available land, and may
soon reach the point where it is insufficient not because of
overcrowding, but because of mismanagement.

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Regardless of a planets size, overcrowding and resource

management will likely be a consideration for any advanced
civilization. Even the largest of super-Earth planets, with two
times or more surface area than Earth has, could fill up with
walking, talking beings at some point. By comparison, if your
current 500-square meter home is full of stuff and you move into
a new 1,000-square meter home, you will probably want to buy
that bigger bed, larger dining table, have another child, and so on.
With so little of Earths land being useful to humans, it doesnt
help that the majority of the surface of our planet is covered by
water we cannot drink. The salinity of seawater makes it unusable
for crop irrigation and human consumption; in fact, less than 1%
of all water on the planet can be used for these purposes. If you
could gather the entire quantity of freshwater both on Earths
surface and any underground, the volume would amount to a
sphere with a diameter of 273 kilometers, or the distance you
would travel driving at 92 kilometers per hour for three hours.5

EARTHS FUTURE

Earth has entered the 'Anthropocene', a geologically distinct

epoch where human activity has forever made a mark in the
geological record. Future alien archaeologists will be able to find
this mark, should they ever visit and we are long gone. Although
our planet is always changing and entering new epochs (usually
over millions of years for each epoch), and will continue to do so
regardless of human activities, eventually it will change
permanently for the worse. We can observe other planetary
systems to get a peek at what is in store.5
Here is how it is going to play out for Earth in the distant future
with an increasingly elderly Sun baking its surface: during the next
four billion years the Suns temperature is going to continue to
slowly increase, rising by another 10% or so. That doesnt sound
so bad, until we realize that Earth is already on the inner edge of
the solar systems habitable zone. As the Suns temperature
increases, this zone will move further out. While Earth will not

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become the next Venus, with surface temperatures that can melt
lead, the oceans will still boil off. Earths surface will be baked
sterile. The upper layers of the atmosphere will be carried away by
the solar wind, and any remaining water vapor will seep into space.
Eventually, our planet will lose its entire atmosphere. One can take
heart, though, in knowing that life has at least a few hundred
million years before the Sun will start to roast us.

THE PERFECT EARTH

Earth is overall a great place for life. At first glance it may

seem like all of the knobs are set perfectly to meet our needs --
water to quench our thirst, food to fuel our bodies, and oxygen to
breath are all seemingly available in abundance. Humans have
settled everywhere there is land and these three needs are met, and
flourished, so whats there not to like?
The knobs of perfection are in fact quite a bit off from what
planetary scientists can envision, as well as by anyone who takes
a moment to think about places on Earth that are not habitable.
What we know about the limits of chemistry, geology, and other
sciences would suggest that there ought to be planets out there even
more suited to life than Earth. If you had control of the planetary
construction dials, what sort of improvements would you make to
our planet in order to create a more habitable place for humans?
With more than a thousand confirmed planets in the galaxy so
far, scientists are beginning to doubt that Earth is the best real
estate in town. Our planet is certainly good, great, even fantastic
for life, but not perfect. The Earth Similarity Index is a recently
established measure of habitability. Hundreds of factors are taken
into consideration, but most important are a planets size, interior
composition, atmospheric composition, presence of a magnetic
field, and presence of liquid water. Earth scores a 1 on a scale of 0
to 1. Mercury is 0.86, and the moon is 0.56. While we havent yet
discovered any planets higher than 1, the scale does allow for this
possibility with some of the suggested changes below.

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Clean water and safe food are the first two things that come to
my mind when thinking about what a perfect Earth would need in
greater abundance. It is ironic that our planet has more water than
land surface, and yet thousands of children die every single day
from a lack of safe drinking water. Even when the water is not
contaminated, if it is salty like that of Earths oceans, drinking it
will only cause one to dehydrate faster. Hundreds more children
are poisoned from wild or improperly prepared foods.
A higher level of oxygen in the atmosphere would help in
fueling our bodies for very energy-intensive tasks. With more
oxygen in the air, lung capacity would increase, requiring a smaller
set of lungs. The reduction in lung size would free up the bodys
resources to focus on other operations, perhaps increasing the
brains efficiency, enhancing intelligence. It took Earth a billion
years to build up enough oxygen to fuel multicellular life, so its
clearly a key component in making complex life happen.
More oxygen would come at a cost, however. There would be
an increased chance of wildfires. The doubling of oxygen to about
40% could cause wildfires to burn out of control even during a
heavy rainstorm. This amount of oxygen in the atmosphere was
last seen about 300 million years ago. Since then, levels tapered
off to the current 21%. Any lower than 15% and extinction events
could occur, alongside an onset of sudden evolutionary changes in
species in a struggle to adapt.
We might also think that a perfect Earth would have no natural
disasters, but as described above with atmosphere regulating plate
tectonics, a planet cannot be unmoving and expect to support
something as dynamic as life itself.
Understanding what is life, what makes our planet capable of
supporting it, as well as lifes limitations, will help us in the distant
future when humanity looks toward space for another place to call
home. Until we find such a world that is worthy of being called
Earth 2, the worst thing we can do is shrug off the responsibility of
taking care of our one and only home. That process of
understanding begins with the origin of life itself.7

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CHAPTER 2: EVOLUTION AND THE

BUILDING BLOCKS OF LIFE
The theory of evolution by cumulative natural selection is
the only theory we know of that is in principle capable of
explaining the existence of organized complexity.
- Richard Dawkins

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THE GREATEST EVENT IN HISTORY

A miraculous event occurred four billion years ago. On a

watery world safely tucked away between two arms in a spiral
galaxy, organic compounds arranged in such a way as to be able to
self-replicate. Once replication was in place, incremental changes
started to occur in future copies. These changes arose from copy
errors, damage, or stress which altered the original set of
information, occasionally producing new helpful variations that
were passed on to the next generation. This process, called
evolution by natural selection, started a chain of events that led to
the existence of thinking beings that can reflect on that original
spark of life.
Let us examine how life got started on Earth, and how it has
flourished over time to become as beautifully diverse as we see it
today. Understanding the life on our planet will tell us a lot about
the chances for it to occur elsewhere in the Universe.
Place the chemistry of life and the process of evolution by
natural selection in a stable but slowly changing environment
(Earth), stir in a whole lot of time (billions of years), put it on the
fire of continuous energy (the Sun), and voil, you get millions of
species coexisting, as they do today.

THE FOUNDATION OF LIFE

Life: The condition that distinguishes animals and plants from

inorganic matter, including the capacity for growth, reproduction,
functional activity, and continual change preceding death.
Oxford English Dictionary

The Periodic Soup

Regardless of which nebula or gas cloud in deep space we point

our telescopes toward, we discover the basic building blocks of life
the elements being formed therein. The laws of chemistry and

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physics dictate how these building blocks come together in

predictable and consistent ways.
Currently there are 118 elements on the periodic table.
Elements either repel, bond, or remain neutral to other elements. If
the atom of one element bonds to an atom of another element, a
compound is formed. Compounds are two or more atoms that bond
together, and they are called molecules when they have a neutral
charge. Complex molecules, such as amino acids and proteins,
allow for life to form out of the elements.
Because of its abundance and unique ability to easily bond with
other elements, carbon is the element best suited for the formation
of complex molecules advantageous for life. Another advantage of
carbon is that its bonds split and recombine easily, but not so easily
that they cannot hold long enough for life to develop. Carbon also
bonds easily with other elements that are very abundant in nature,
such as hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen.
There are only a few other elements around which life-yielding
molecules could possibly form. Silicon is considered the next best
candidate, but it is still far behind carbon. Silicon requires more
energy to combine with other elements, and has less combining
opportunities. The more energy required, the less likely life will be
able to take hold. For example, a lightning strike may be needed to
form a silicon bond of sufficient complexity, versus the Suns
natural light striking the grounds carbon atoms, forming bonds.
Water two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom (H2O) is
the molecule most valuable to life.
Liquid H2O is the best solvent for chemical interactions, and it
is widely agreed that life started as a chemical reaction in water.
The oceans circulate organic molecules around the globe, where
they can lodge into more secure environments like a small bay. As
the moons tidal forces act on the bay by repeatedly raising and
lowering the water level, the chemical soup begins to form layers.
Heating and cooling from the planets day/night cycle then cooks
the chemicals together into increasingly complex forms.
Eventually something will change in the mix and combine in such
a way as to spawn self-replicating molecules.

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Life has a propensity to evolve every chance it can get, and it

is generally very successful, barring an asteroid impact, a massive
volcanic eruption, or the meddling of other life. It just needs that
initial chemical kick-start and its off to the races.

Lifes Scaffolding RNA and DNA

Many scientists think that RNA (ribonucleic acid) was the first
self-replicating molecule. RNA is a long strand of molecules,
made up of sugars and phosphate bases (nucleotides). RNA and
DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid), an even more complex strand of
molecules, exists in every living cell and contains the genetic
information to be passed down to offspring.

A Synthetic RNA and DNA XNA

A few alternatives to RNA and DNA have been created in

laboratories. The leading one is xeno nucleic acid (XNA), which
has almost all of the same components as RNA and DNA and is
able to store information and self-replicate.
Genetic engineers use XNA to create more energy-efficient
chemical reactions in cells than they can create with RNA or DNA.
They are working to find a way to use XNA to target cancer cells
and fix damaged RNA and DNA. Critics worry that XNA could
infiltrate the ecosystem and contaminate it, but genetic engineers
claim that the risk is negligible.
No matter how intricate lifes copying processes get, its not
going to allow us to fly without wings or shoot fire out of our eyes,
as you may be led to believe by fanciful movies like Superman and
X-Men. The physical limits of the formation of molecular
structures give us one reason that alien life is likely to be more
similar to earthly life than we might first imagine.

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THE BEGINNINGS OF LIFE ON EARTH

Environmental conditions had to be stable for a long enough

period of time so that the initial molecules capable of replication
could form in sufficient quantities. The process could possibly
have happened many times over before it took hold; it may be that
each time it got started, the beginnings of life were destroyed or
disturbed sufficiently to abort the process.
The atmosphere on early Earth was made up of hydrogen
sulfide, methane, and high levels of carbon dioxide. This mix was
beneficial for the original single-celled organisms, and it caused
their population to explode. These organisms produced an
abundance of oxygen as a waste byproduct, and for more than 2.3
billion years this oxygen saturated the oceansthe stage was now
set for complex life to evolve and thrive.
Just a few hundred million years after oxygen saturated the
oceans and began filling the atmosphere, the first eukaryotic cells
evolved. These cells have a more complex internal structure than
their prokaryotic ancestors, as they contain a membrane-bound
nucleus and internal organelles, such as mitochondria that produce
energy for the cell. Before this period, all cells were prokaryotic
and could not combine to form multicellular organisms. Once
eukaryotes evolved and made use of the abundance of oxygen,
complex multicellular organisms soon followed. The first species
to reproduce via sex, as opposed to asexual reproduction, also
occurred around this time.
Life can now get interesting! In fact, all life on Earth today has
evolved from a long chain of reproduction that started with those
very first eukaryote cells.
While oxygen is one element that is needed for complex life, it
is not the only one; life forms must ingest other elements as
nutrients. At the same time that some life forms gained the ability
to use oxygen, others lost the ability to carry out photosynthesis,
the process that had supplied these other elements. Life forms that
thrived on oxygen began to ingest the single-celled organisms,
which still performed photosynthesis, and in this way they fed

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themselves the elements they needed. The food chain we partake

in today began at this oxygenation event.
Over the next 1.5 billion years, oxygen continued to be
produced as a byproduct of photosynthetic life forms, and over
time enough oxygen existed to form the ozone layer in the
atmosphere. Ozone, O3, shields Earths surface from the Suns
deadliest radiation. Previously, life was confined to the oceans
where water provided a sufficient shield. This protective ozone
layer allowed even more complex organisms to develop, and for
life to move out of the water and onto land.
Starting about 540 million years ago, millions of species
appeared in a relatively short time. Scientists are not in agreement
about how long this period lasted; opinions range from a scant 5
million to a much more plausible 80 million years. This upsurge in
diverse life forms is called the Cambrian explosion, and was the
precursor for the age of the dinosaurs. Many of the key organs and
other features future land animals would acquire, such as a heart,
brain, and backbone, also evolved during this time period.

LIFES ABILITY TO EVOLVE

In terms of geologic history, Earths changes are slow and

steady, apart from infrequent cataclysmic disruptions, as in the
asteroid bombardment that may have caused the dinosaurs to go
extinct (clearing the way for mammals to evolve). Seasons change
every few months, and the more dramatic ice ages occur as
frequently as every ten thousand years, and as infrequently as
every hundred thousand years or more. Its a slow enough rate of
change to allow life to adapt.
Life alters its own environment, which can have the result of
allowing new life to form. As explained above, life that put oxygen
into the atmosphere (plants) allowed oxygen-breathing organisms
to evolve (animals). If carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rise,
more plants grow, which helps to remove any excess CO2. None
of this is through foresight; nature does not plan for the future.

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Whatever proves most beneficial, and is physically and chemically

possible, will generally occur.
Life has been found in some of the most inhospitable places on
Earth. Deep in the oceans where light cannot reach, life forms
called extremophiles cluster around hydrothermal vents that spew
out 260C sulfuric gases, which would be poisonous to other life
forms. These extremophiles have traits which make them well
adapted to the harsh environment. Life is also found high in the
stratosphere where its cold, extremely dry, and abounding in solar
radiation.
And yet as we see with Mercury, Venus, Mars, and every other
body in our solar system, life cannot form in just any environment.
If life could appear anywhere, the Universe should be a very busy
place!

Richard Dawkins Mount Improbable

Richard Dawkins is an evolutionary biologist and humanist.

Dawkins has written many books on evolution and participated in
numerous debates on the subject.1 He is also an ethologist (the
study of animal behavior). Dawkins started out studying biology
and teaching at the University of Oxford as Professor of Public
Understanding of Science. Recently, he has been focusing on the
publics awareness of critical thinking skills, or the raising of
consciousness as he calls it. Because of his experience in biology,
Dawkins is front and center when it comes to evolution.
Three of Dawkins very popular books related to evolution are
The Selfish Gene, The Extended Phenotype, and Climbing Mount
Improbable. In The Selfish Gene, and partially in The Extended
Phenotype, Dawkins talks about how an organism is only the tool
genes use to ensure their survival. In The Extended Phenotype,
Dawkins goes further and points out the effect an organism has
on its surrounding environment, based on the behavior of that
organism guided by its genes. In both of these books, the genes are
the master commanders, not the host organism that does the genes
naturally guided bidding.

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Dawkins third book, Climbing Mount Improbable, explains

how evolution occurs through natural selection.2 Evolution is not
a series of direct improvements in a species. Evolution is about
change over time, usually guided by environmental pressures that
force a species to adapt to its surroundings. Changes often first
appear as errors in the genetic replication process, known as
mutations. Changes that are harmful and do not improve chances
of survival will less likely be carried on to the next generation. Far
fewer beneficial changes are going to occur than harmful ones, but
they still do occur. Given enough time, these beneficial traits will
naturally be selected for and spread throughout the population of a
species. If a segment of that species becomes isolated for long
enough, and new traits appear which favor that segments new
environment, a distinctly new species may eventually result.

Evolutionary Pressures

Life may not change from generation to generation if there are

no pressures for it to change. If the environment stays exactly the
same for millions of years, life in that environment may remain
nearly identical for that entire time. There are organisms on the
ocean floor that exhibit this lack of change. We know, though, that
most environments do change, and this puts pressure on life to
adapt, and the need to adapt results in changes in a species over
time.
Survival of the fittest is the classic theory of how life evolves
via selective pressures against other lifeforms. The weak die off
and the strong remain, and they go on to reproduce offspring with
those traits that made them strong. Useful traits continue to remain
in a species, while others that are no longer useful will be reduced
in size and function, or removed entirely.
Change in climate is another key pressure that can cause a
variety of changes in life forms. For instance, 56 million years ago,
during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, the climate was
several degrees warmer than it is today. The first horses evolved
then, and they were less than half their modern average size. In

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general, the warmer the climate, the smaller mammals tend to be.
Smaller bodies are able to shed heat more quickly and thus keep
cool. As the climate cooled, mammals like horses grew in size.
Change in climate also alters sea levels, which can separate
species. Over time, the separate group becomes an entirely new
species.
Sources of food can dissipate, pressuring species to migrate to
new environments. For instance, some birds today are having to
fly further to find food that is no longer at the latitudes they used
to hunt. The effort in flying great distances is improving their
flying skills and likely causing these birds to become stronger.
These birds will pass down genes that empower them to meet their
needs to find food. If a key food source becomes scarce, especially
for species that have less mobility than birds, extinctions may
occur.4
Emotional stress as a selective pressure has gotten a lot more
attention recently. Like with geographical barriers, stress also
plays an important role in driving speciation. Stress helps us to
avoid approaching danger, and it gives us energy to overcome
otherwise insurmountable obstacles. Stress also acts on our genes
by activating or deactivating them as a result of significant events.
Activated genes are those that become chemically strengthened,
causing them to be more likely to be passed on to offspring in an
active state.

CLIMBING MOUNT IMPROBABLE

Even though evolution is based on the hard limits of chemistry

and physics, the abundant variety of life we see around us is
astounding. If evolution had taken another course, perhaps because
life found itself in a different climate or other pressure, we can only
imagine what sort of unique traits and creatures would have
resulted. Earth has numerous examples of life taking unusual and
improbable paths with varying results. Just think about how many
varieties of birds, insects, mammals, and other classes of life there
are around the world.

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As much as there are constraints on life, we also know that

certain features and functions seem to be an absolutely necessity
to survive in most environments.3 Life has numerous examples of
independently produced features. Convergent evolution is the
same feature evolving in more than one species when those species
have no common ancestor to share genetic information about
reproducing said feature. A few examples of convergent evolution
include bird wings, fish fins, arms and legs, powerful foreclaws,
long and sticky tongues, and the eye.

The Eye

The earliest version of the eye is thought to have been a

grouping of light-sensitive cells on the dorsal surface of some fish.
There was no retina, cornea, or lens. As these fish swam in shallow
waters, light from above would hit the cells, providing the fish with
an ability to sense depth. Over time these light-sensitive areas
evolved, changing to allow fish to sense the shadows created by
the predators passing overhead.
Over more time, a mutation in the fishs genes created an
indentation in the light-sensing area. The mutation benefited the
fish by allowing the detection of light from more than one
direction. This concavity was the first evolutionary move towards
an eyeball. Eventually a pinhole formed on the indentation an
early pupil. Some species would also develop a thin sheath over
the pinhole that helped to protect it this sheath evolved into the
cornea, the surface of the front of the eye. Versions of this sheath
helped focus light coming in through the pinhole; eventually a lens
evolved and the eye of todays abilities appeared.
Some fish evolved limbs with which to climb onto land. Soon
after, eyes evolved to be located more toward the front of the head.
This frontal view greatly improved the ability to detect the next
meal, shifting the role of the fish from prey to predator. For every
generation that had slightly more forward-facing eyes than its
parents, the ability to capture prey increased.

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Every stage of evolution the eye has gone through can still be
found in creatures today. For example, the eyes of vipers and some
pythons are simply shallow holes with light-sensing cells. Giant
clams have a pinhole that allows them to navigate the complex and
vast structures of coral reefs. The Proteus anguinus salamander,
having migrated to dark caves, no longer needs its eyesight, so its
eyes have regressed. The larvae start off with eyes, but then they
atrophy because they are a long unused organ of the species.
Some consider the eye to be a perfect organ. After all, we can
see incredible amounts of detail in millions of shades of color. For
some species, eyes work extremely well under water, and for
others, eyes can spot prey in the pitch black of night. Indeed, the
eye is an amazing organ, though it is far from perfect. There are
blind spots, perception inconsistencies, and age-related disease of
the eye. Statistically, 17% of the worlds population is blind to
some degree, and about 1% of children are born blind. Every year,
more than a million children are born never to see a colorful flower
or the smiling faces of their parents.

Insects

Insects provide an excellent example of how the environment

shapes the evolution of a species. As mentioned previously, insects
absorb oxygen through their exoskeletons, via little holes, called
spiracles. The greater the surface area of an insects body, the more
oxygen it can absorb. The more oxygen in the environment, the
larger insects become though they would never become the size
of a human due to fundamental physical limitations. During the
Carboniferous geological period more than 300 million years ago,
atmospheric oxygen levels reached 35%. This may have sparked a
period of insect gigantism, where insects were many times the size
we see them today.

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From Water to Land

One of the most important events in the animal kingdoms

evolutionary history, that would one day lead to human beings,
was the migration of creatures from water to land. Some species
evolved to be able to rest partly out of the water along shallow
shorelines. The fins of many of these shallow water creatures, over
many generations, evolved to form stiffer and more complex hind
limbs that could push the creature out onto dry land. The first
fish/amphibian hybrid was known as the Tiktaalik. This was also
the first time that primitive lungs evolved.
While the exact reason Tiktaalik made the transition onto land
is unknown, its likely to have been the need to escape predators
in the water. Since there were no other creatures on land at the
time, retreating to land to rest was a perfect survival tactic.

EVOLUTIONS PROCESSES

As stated, the process of evolution is simply biological change

over time. Change occurs over the course of many generations of
a species. Each generation will be ever so slightly different from
the previous generation, and from its offspring. Changes occur for
a variety of reasons, from environmental to societal, from
accidental to man-made.
Hundreds or more generations are required for significant
changes to manifest in a species, so such changes can be difficult
to identify. Lets envisage a human lifetime displayed in a picture
book, with one image per day on a page. On average, there would
be more than 25,000 pages. Now lets remove every page but the
first and the last. The first page would picture a just fertilized egg,
while the last would picture an elderly person on their last breath.
It might initially be difficult to understand how the two images
were related, until we take into account the role of change over
time.

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Unguided Man-made Evolution

The scale of time over which evolution occurs should not affect
our understanding of the process, but even so, it is human nature
to doubt that which we cannot observe. Yet there are species that
have evolved quickly enough for us to better grasp the concept.
Those creatures are right in front of our eyes and licking our noses.
Im referring to our beloved pets, of course namely the dog.
Dogs are descendants of wolves. Humans and wolves have had
a relationship going back for tens of thousands of years. Originally,
wolves would appear on the outskirts of human habitats, in search
of food. Humans would leave food out, much like how we may,
perhaps unwisely, leave food out around a campfire for hungry
creatures in the night. This was more than an act of kindness,
though, as wolves kept away more dangerous creatures, such as
poisonous snakes. Over time, the wolves became comfortable with
approaching the humans, and the relationship between humans and
wolves grew. As more sophisticated settlements with greater
populations sprouted up, wolves would venture into villages and
towns to look for food. Wolves eventually became a regular part
of life in the settlements.
Once domestication began, the wolves physical features
underwent evolutionary changes. Where high testosterone once
helped wolves protect themselves, such high levels were no longer
needed once humans were keeping the wolves safer by caring for
them. Lower testosterone levels reduced rigid facial features,
making wolves appear softer and less aggressive. (High
testosterone gives chimpanzees their enlarged brows and makes
them some of the most territorial of animals.) Humans would
naturally favor wolf cubs that had less intimidating features; being
favored by humans helped wolves survive, and so these physical
changes accelerated.
Eventually, wolves evolved into dogs. Neither wolf nor human
was aware of the process underway at the time, and most still are
not aware of this transformation still occurring today.

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So why are there still wolves then? Wolf populations span

entire continents, so naturally some lived in the wilderness on their
own. Group separation is one way evolution forms new species.
The wolves of today are so different from wolves of millennia ago
that they are considered two distinct species. By extension,
humans did not evolve from the apes that are around today, we just
share a common ancestor.

Guided Man-made Evolution

Another way evolution sculpts species is through reproductive

constraints. For instance, a Great Dane and a Chihuahua cannot
naturally copulate because of the great difference in their sizes. In
the case of dogs, humans guided the process with selective
breeding. Today there are entire factories for breeding dogs, all of
which are still the same species split off from a wolf ancestor many
generations ago.
Because of human guidance of genetic selection, we have seen
more than a tenfold increase in crop yields. Increases did not just
come from improved irrigation and disease management. They
also came from humans selecting the healthiest plants and taking
their seeds to plant elsewhere. Growth density, plant height, ability
to weather storms, and many other factors were considered in plant
selection. If a crop had 20% blight, it would not be selected,
possibly causing that strain to disappear from the genetic pool
entirely.
There is no mechanism of a plant (or any other form of life,
humans included) that says, Stop! Im not changing anymore. I
like the way I am now! If change continues over a sufficient
number of generations, especially if a plant becomes isolated from
its native environment, future generations will be unable to
germinate with the source plant, and voil, you get a new species.
Genetic selection applies to crops low to the ground, as well as
those high up in the trees. The yellow bananas found in
supermarkets today came about over hundreds of years of selective
human cultivation from the plantain. The plantain came from

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western Africa and is about a third the size of yellow bananas,

darker in color, has a tougher skin, and tastes starchy. The plantain
itself has been selectively bred over thousands of years. Its earliest
form was small and extremely starchy, and the plantain tree itself
was more vulnerable to changes in climate.
Another example of human guided evolution would be with
corn, which is at the very foundation of our food supply. While
corn is native to North America, it has since been grown all over
the world. The vast geographic dispersal has slowly diversified
corns appearance. While all varieties are still of the same species,
corn today looks nothing like when Indians began harvesting it
thousands of years ago. The original plant more closely resembled
wheat. It was thin and short with a few tiny seeds along the
branches. Steadily over hundreds of years, the tastier varieties with
larger kernels were cultivated.
What are the consequences of man-guided evolution? Man has
cultivated corn to such heights, the heavy cobs tended to drag
down the plants branches, and would topple over a plant on a
gusty afternoon. Left to grow on its own, corn would quickly
regress back to a smaller size after just a few generations, or even
go extinct. If humans disappeared tomorrow, so would a majority
of our crops within a matter of months, not to mention many other
plants and domesticated animals.
Breeding a very specific crop can result in less genetic
diversity. When reproduction occurs naturally, there is not as
stringent a filter on which genes are passed down to future
generations. Species are partly protected from going extinct by
having diversity in their genetic makeup. A large gene pool will
help a species survive epidemics, for instance. Life on Earth has a
remarkable propensity to maintain itself by diversifying. This
mechanism can be viewed similarly as an investor diversifying his
portfolio to prevent catastrophic financial losses.

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Horizontal Evolution

A more recent theory of evolution suggests genetic traits are

not just passed on through asexual or sexual reproduction, or
guided by another creature, but also through a process that
transfers genes directly between species, called horizontal gene
transfer. Genes are borrowed from another nearby organism. The
process is rare, but it does occur, mostly to microorganisms like
bacteria and viruses, but also with plants. There is also horizontal
gene transfer within the animal kingdom, with examples being
rotifers and some beetles. When we create hybrids by splicing their
roots and mixing them with other species, so that the new plants
can then reproduce on their own with the new gene set, we achieve
man-guided horizontal evolution. Horizontal gene transfer has
been the source of drug-resistant strains of bacteria, as well as
resistance to many pesticides.

The Ugly Side of Evolution

The food you ate yesterday probably came from a farm. That
farm had both natural and chemical fertilizers, some produced
from by-products animals previously had excreted. Broken down
by microbes and smaller life forms, those by-products eventually
settled into the soil. Basic elements and nutrients were then free to
disperse further into the environment, where they could be used by
whatever would grow there. The cycle then repeats.
We live in a strange world a world where life literally lives
off of other life. Life feeds off of life by necessity, sometimes
causing pain, suffering, and fear in higher animals. The basic need
is fantastically barbaric, and yet we are all participating in the
process on a daily basis. Even strict vegans are still eating life,
whatever non-meat or non-dairy substitute they may choose.
While feeding off other life forms seems to be necessary, did the
process really have to be this way? Couldnt life have evolved a
bit differently, perhaps so that we could survive and reproduce just
on sunlight, chemicals, or other non-biological compounds?

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Although some may find it unfortunate, the answer seems to

be no. Complex life cannot survive off the energy from the Sun or
solely any other inorganic matter consuming other life forms is
a natural process that has no known alternative. Anyone who
would wish for an ability to survive without consuming anything
that was once alive must come to terms with the fact that nature
does not concern itself with moral imperatives, that nature will take
the path that tends to be the shortest and least energy-intensive, and
that life comes from life.

SIMULATING LIFES EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS

We do have one ace up our sleeve in gauging lifes potential,

and that lies in understanding how the laws of physics constrain
the diversity of life. As described earlier, life is limited on Earth in
certain areas for obvious reasons, like the environment being too
cold or too dry. Applying this knowledge of lifes constraints to
models on powerful supercomputers, we can extrapolate what
other chemical reactions, and more complicated evolutionary
processes, are likely to occur when the system is given a chance to
play out over millions of years.
If you want to see evolution in action on the computer screen,
Conways Game of Life allows for such observation. The game is
a simple simulator that shows how blocks interact with their
neighbors when following certain rules, set by the player, and how
these blocks can form increasingly complicated systems that self-
replicate and evolve. The variety of what is produced in a short
period of time is impressive. While just a simulation, it provides
an excellent, albeit simplified, illustration of the process of
evolution.

RESOURCE LIMITATIONS

One reason the human population did not grow very much for
millennia was that resources were limited, but once new energy
sources were discovered a few centuries ago, the population

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exploded. Understanding how to use more complex energy sources

gave us a new ability to provide not only more secure food and
shelter, but also education and medical care to extend the lives of
human beings.
The limitation or drastic change in resources can open up
evolutionary opportunities as well. For example, after a massive
asteroid hit Earth about 65 million years ago and severely altered
the climate and food supply, dinosaurs went extinct, which
allowed new species to propagate. Small mammals grew more
dominant because there were fewer large predators to impede their
evolution.

UNIQUE HUMAN CAPACITIES

The following traits may or may not be required for a species

to one day be able to develop a civilization, but they certainly help
maximize the potential. In combination, the traits have allowed
modern humans to improve their living conditions far beyond what
is possible in other species without them.

Opposable Thumbs Manipulating the Environment

An important trait of any species that has the chance of creating

a complex civilization is the ability to significantly manipulate its
environment. If there is no way to create tools that lead to more
sophisticated ones, it will be impossible for a technological
civilization to get off the ground.
To finely construct tools, a being needs a grasping mechanism
that is able not only to carry objects, but also to manipulate its
parts. Fingers clasped together pushed against other fingers will do
a pretty good job at basic tasks like moving material from one
location to another, as will the beak of a bird. But as for crafting
tools, manipulating materials and building structures, there needs
to be a grasping mechanism that includes a clutching action, and
thats where the opposable thumb comes in.

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The opposable thumb probably originated as a birth defect.

Individuals with such a beneficial trait were more readily able to
survive, as well as prove useful to those around them. Offspring
from these individuals had a greater chance of acquiring opposable
thumbs and, in turn, surviving. Not only was the trait passed on,
but it also continued to change and become more useful. Each
creature that had a slightly more pronounced opposable thumb had
a greater capacity for manipulating the environment than those that
came before. So although a mere genetic abnormality at first, the
opposable thumb became a crucial part of what made society
possible.

Bipedalism Transportation

Millions of years ago, apes used their powerful elongated

hands to grab tree branches, just like many species do today. As
the trees thinned from an increasingly arid environment,
eventually small patches were all that was left of a once great
rainforest canopy. This forced the apes to travel on the ground to
look for food. Hunting food on all four limbs proved too slow and
cumbersome, so over time the skeletal structure evolved and apes
began to walk upright.
The ability to walk upright proved to be both a blessing and a
curse. The hands were now available for a variety of purposes,
including toolmaking, communication, and crafting weapons to
throw at prey. Unfortunately for the females, standing upright
caused the birth canal to narrow, which made giving birth very
painful. The benefits must have outweighed the cost, otherwise
evolutionary changes would likely not have occurred.
Walking upright provided unique potential for our species, and
it could be the most important factor in the evolution of
intelligence, apart from a large brain and opposable thumbs.
Walking upright preceded the higher functions the brain eventually
acquired. Because the hands became available for other tasks than
walking, Homo erectus and then Homo sapiens were eventually

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forced to think in new and different ways, which pushed the brains
development.

The Human Brain Intelligence and Forethought

Everything from ants to the great sperm whale has a brain of a

size that is roughly scaled to its body weight. This is not a hard rule
though, as huge dinosaurs had tiny brains. For instance, the mighty
stegosaurus had a brain the size of a bent hot dog. The velociraptor
had a brain the size of a plum, which is about the same size as the
brain of todays common rabbit.
Intelligence level is not entirely determined by the size of the
brain, though. Sperm whales have the largest brains of any animal
five times the size of humans yet whales do not have the ability
to construct a civilization like humans have done, the lack of
opposable thumbs notwithstanding.
Our ancestors maintained an intelligence level similar to other
primates for millions of years, but then environmental changes
forced them to use more complicated survival techniques, like that
of toolmaking, which in turn required more intricate brain
functions. With a changing environment and growing population,
there was a need to find alternate food sources, fend off new types
of predators, and adapt to more complex social elements, all of
which played a role in increasing intelligence. This period in
history began a runaway effect of increasing brain complexity.
With such a powerful tool as the human brain and its trillions
of neural connections, it is not surprising that Homo sapiens was
able to advance quickly after it began making tools, living in large
groups and communicating with language. For the first time on
Earth, a species had the capability to plan and invest in its future.
Once it could plan and had learned how to kill protein-rich
animals for food with crude weapons and command fire to cook
the meat constant foraging became less important. Those who
thought faster and in smarter ways survived more easily than those
who hesitated on the hunt for their next meal, or perhaps their next
mate.

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Vocal Communication

Vocal cords allow humans to use a wide range of sounds that

over evolutionary history came to have meaning to listeners. If
humans did not have vocal cords at all (or lacked ears with which
to hear them) and could only communicate nonverbally, our hands
would indeed be very busy. Vocal communication freed up our
hands to perform toolmaking and fight off predators more
effectively. Communication improves survival; for instance, it is
advantageous if a species can quickly warn its fellows of danger.
Communicating with sound enables us to receive information
without having to see or be near the communicator.
Relaying information and expressing ideas to others is
important for a civilization to form and eventually be able to
advance in technology. Communication of knowledge, passed
down from generation to generation, allowed us to grow
intellectually. The written word followed again, thanks to that
opposable thumb but vocal communication is one of the most
rapid (though not the most accurate or permanent) forms of
relaying information.

HUMAN VESTIGES

While the human body has many useful features, it also carries
around parts that are no longer needed, or at least not absolutely
essential. The appendix is part of the digestive tract that, thousands
of years ago, was used for the digestion of plant material. As
toolmaking improved, so did the yields from hunting, so parts of
the digestive tract developed further in order to digest more meat.
The appendix is still around because this change in diet is relatively
recent to our species; in the future, our descendants may not have
an appendix at all.
Wisdom teeth are also no longer required. They were once
useful in the digestion of plants; as heavy grinding was necessary
to break down tough leaves before they were processed in the
digestive tract. The appendix and wisdom teeth are the most well-

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known vestiges because they tend to cause us misery when

something goes wrong with them. When someone has an infected
appendix or wisdom tooth, these vestiges can be surgically
removed before they cause further harm, or even death.
While human musculature is not vestigial, it has undergone
considerable reduction in strength from what our ancient ancestors
had. Even the might of todays greatest heavy lifters pales in
comparison to that of many other species of similar size; for
example, the orangutan has a grip strength four times that of a
human. It is postulated that the change in humans occurred because
our brains grew in size; natural selection may have reduced the
bulk of our muscles to conserve energy and oxygen for our large
brains. The human brain uses 20% of the calories and the oxygen
required to run the body. Also, with the greater intelligence that
came along with a larger brain, we needed less muscular power to
dodge predators and hunt for food.
The human ears complexity pales in comparison to that of
many other animals ears. The macaque monkey can move its ears
in full rotation in order to capture sounds from all around. The best
we can do is move our head and body. Humans still have many of
the same ear muscles as the macaque, but they are minimally
developed and non-functional.
Take a look in the mirror and carefully examine your eyes. You
may notice that the inner part that rests alongside the nose has a
small, fatty bulge. This bulge is a curled up bundle of inert
muscular tissue that controls a nictitating (blinking) membrane, a
secondary eyelid that other mammals have but which humans do
not. (Cats have such a membrane.) Like wisdom teeth, our
nictitating membrane muscles may eventually fade from the
species, if nature does not find them useful again in the future.

WHERE WILL EVOLUTION TAKE HUMANITY?

One day in the future, it may be the fate of humanity to change

to fit some new environment one that is, sadly, not conducive to
civilization. Future generations may have reduced brain size, with

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less potential for intelligence, in order to conserve resources for a

new survival need. All of the aforementioned traits may not be
required for life to exist and reproduce. The end-game for
humanity may therefore not be to maintain intelligence,
civilization, benevolence toward others, appreciation of beautiful
music and art, and the ability to colonize outer space, but simply
to survive.
This is not to say that life is meaningless. The driver of
evolutionary change may be the genes, but the meaning of life and
all its grandness is squarely in the hands and minds of the
conscious creatures that are host to those genes. Consequently, the
future of life and the ultimate fate of its spawned intelligential
creatures may eventually fall out the hands of its genes, and into
the hands of the conscious creatures that will manipulate those
genes for their own purpose.

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CHAPTER 3: THE RISE OF

CIVILIZATION ON EARTH
The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena.
Carl Sagan

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EARLY HUMAN CIVILIZATION

The Paleolithic era, or Early Stone Age, is the earliest period

in which we can identify ancient humans as a distinct species from
previous ancestors. During the Paleolithic era many Homo sapiens
still lived alongside the Neanderthals and Denisovans, both close
relatives, genetically speaking. There is even evidence of the three
interbreeding. Some scientists believe that one reason the
Neanderthals eventually disappeared is that the Homo sapiens
population of the time was comparatively much larger, and the
Neanderthals were simply absorbed into their genetic pool.
Because of this cross-breeding, many of us have a little bit of
Neanderthal in our DNA.
After a long and barbaric Stone Age that lasted millions of
years, other ages that were relatively more civilized quickly
followed.1 The Neolithic period came at the end of the Stone Age
and it marked the beginning of humans settling and cultures
forming. The Neolithic Revolution was also the transition from
hunting and gathering to the use of agriculture. A side effect of
humans roaming less and settling more was the encouragement of
cooperation and exchange of ideas. Language flourished, as well
as the need for social stability and security.
As society became more complex, the demands upon our
brains increased. Agriculture helped to feed an energy-hungry
brain that from generation to generation evolved in complexity.
The very concept of progress and advancement was also born
around this time. Once the secrets to creating a stable and
productive society were discovered, vast amounts of time were
freed up. New leisure activities like art, music, and science
developed. For the first time in all of history, a creature on the
planet had the capabilities to craft its own future, and even have
fun in doing so.
The Neolithic Revolution was a time when each new discovery
was changing the world. The concept of schools had yet to come
about, but many cultures still shared resources and processing
techniques. Regional knowledge expanded and, over time, much

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knowledge became global. The wheel is an excellent example of

an early tool that improved the efficiency of countless human
pursuits. When discoveries and inventions transformed the
civilizations, a new technological age was ushered in. The next to
follow were the Bronze and Iron Ages.
The Bronze Age is so named because it was the era when we
discovered how to make bronze alloy. Bronze is a mix of copper,
tin and a variety of other metals, such as zinc and nickel. When
heated and melded properly, extremely durable tools can be made.
The alloy marked the first time we could build things with
materials beyond the raw resources that were cut down, dug up,
sculpted, etc. Bronze was also an essential component in some
structures, including the first plumbing system in the Indus Valley
Civilization around 2700 B.C.
After the Bronze Age, we learned how to make even stronger
metals. Iron (and later its steel alloy) was first forged at the start of
the Iron Age. Iron was not discovered previously because it was so
difficult to mine an even more arduous process than figuring out
the right metal mix to make bronze. The process of mining was
also a new concept. As mining spread from village to village,
blacksmiths quickly popped up. Iron was used to create a wide
variety of items, especially deadly weapons. Bronze swords, in
contrast, just didnt cut it on the battlefield.
The Iron Age also marked the appearance of the first true
alphabet, which came from the Greeks. Unlike Greeks precursor,
the Phoenicians, letters represented both consonants and vowels,
as opposed to only consonants. The Greeks were mighty traders of
the Mediterranean Sea during the Iron Age. Travel and trade was
a way of life. In order to keep track of everything they traded
within such a diverse set of lands and associated languages, they
invented an alphabetical system of writing in order to make record
of transactions. Alphabets became a standard of nearly every
civilization thereafter.

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THE FIRST CIVILIZATIONS

Many civilizations changed the course of history for humanity.

There are six great civilizations recognized as being among the
first: Sumer (Mesopotamia), Ancient Egypt, Norte Chico
(Mexico), Olmec (Mexico), Indus Valley (Pakistan), and China.
While only a couple have survived the test of time (Egypt and
China), each of them contributed important elements to the
development of todays modern civilizations that are now capable
of reaching for the stars.

Sumer

The first civilization to appear in southern Mesopotamia was

in Sumer, which is known as the cradle of civilization. The
Sumer civilization began around 4000 B.C. and lay between the
Tigris and Euphrates rivers, in todays Iraq and Kuwait. The Sumer
built a wide array of cities, which were the first examples of urban
life. Walls were built to keep out invaders, which worked for at
least a few hundred years. Unfortunately, the main wall (about 250
kilometers in length) was not well defended, and there was nothing

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to stop the hordes from simply walking around the sides to pillage
the towns and cities.
Sumerians invented many things, including the wheel, the
plow, and glass. The first inklings of organized religion started in
Sumer. One reason that the Bible can be interpreted to suggest
Earths age at a scant six thousand years is that the first drawings
and writings we know of were created six thousand years before
Christ, in Mesopotamia.

Ancient Egypt

Around the time that Sumer sprouted up, more than a thousand
kilometers to the west, Ancient Egypt flourished along the Nile
River Delta. While there were smaller groups in the area before
Egypt was founded, it took the first great pharaoh to unite them all
into one civilization. Advancements in agriculture played a big
part in the lasting power of Egypt. The civilization did extremely
well in cultivating arid land, as well as trading with neighboring
city-states to build a healthy economy and prosperity for its people.
They were obviously very talented at construction. Egyptians not
only built the Great Pyramids, but also many temples and obelisks
that marked their territory for hundreds of kilometers.
Thousands of years would pass from one slow stage of
technological development to the next, starting in the Bronze Age
and culminating into a great civilization, declining through war
and other problems, eventually changing into what we see as
modern Egypt today.

Norte Chico

25,000 years ago, there was increasing glaciation that yielded

an ice age which lowered sea levels. A new land bridge, the Bering
Land Bridge, appeared between what we now call Eastern Siberia
and North America. The Eastern Siberians achieved the incredible
feat of trekking for thousands of kilometers over rugged
mountains, in freezing temperatures, facing countless dangers.

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This migration occurred over the course of thousands of years.

These ancestors from Eastern Siberia colonized North America
and eventually became known as the North American Indians.
Some tribes continued traveling south into the South American
continent. Around 4000 B.C., many settled in the area along the
coast of what is now north-central Peru this became the Norte
Chico civilization, which emerged about a thousand years after the
Sumer civilization. Initially, the Norte Chico people had virtually
no art or use of symbolism. They were a very peaceful people, as
no evidence of the use of weaponry has ever been found. The
grandest of the Norte Chicos achievements were their many
monuments, such as their platform mounds and step pyramids,
made possible by advanced ceramic techniques. There is also
evidence that a rather complex government was in place for many
hundreds of years to manage the diverse population.
The demise of the Norte Chico came about slowly over
hundreds of years through migration of people from outside the
civilization. The knowledge and ceramic techniques the Norte
Chico developed were taken to other lands by groups that quickly
grew into their own nearby settlements. A thousand years would
pass before another great civilization was built in the area, the
Chavin, and eventually the Olmec, eclipsing the original Norte
Chico people.

Olmec

The Olmec came to the area around 1200 B.C., thousands of

years later than the Norte Chico, though they were the first to settle
in the northern Mexico area. They reigned in the Mesoamerica
region for a couple of thousand years before mysteriously dying
out. Historians are not certain what caused the decline, but it is
highly likely that it was caused by drought, or perhaps an internal
unrest of some kind.
Many of the Olmecs great works and achievements would end
up being used by hundreds of civilizations that followed, including
many techniques for crafting beautiful sculptures. Their culture

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included complex religious and creative institutions which

flourished over a wide area. The advent of the Mesoamerican Long
Count calendar, writing symbols, and a variety of sports and games
(including a primitive form of football or soccer) was thanks to
the Olmec. Sadly, many of the Olmecs works and cultural artifacts
were pilfered or destroyed during the Spanish Conquest in the
sixteenth century.

Indus Valley

The Indus Valley civilization emerged at the start of the Bronze

Age in the area that is now Pakistan and northwest India. The Indus
Valley civilization was thriving at the same time as the Sumer and
Ancient Egypt, but it was the largest of the three. Metallurgy was
their specialty, including the ability to construct multi-story
buildings, plumbing systems, and extensive irrigation works.
Many of these techniques would later be used by the Roman
Empire, and then they were resurrected by modern civilizations.
A likely cause of so many advances in technology in the Indus
Valley was the density of people in the cities. As more people were
forced together, society had to come up with new ways to handle
the problems that came with a crowded living space. Ways to feed
the people required innovative uses of wood and metals to irrigate
and farm the land. Nearby city-states would often attack to gain
control of these consolidated resources, so advanced weapons and
defensive structures had to be developed, as well as laws for
internal peace and order. Numerous religions formed that consoled
a population that was constantly in a state of uncertain change.

China

In my first book, China and High Roads Beyond, I wrote about

Chinas staying power as a civilization. China could be said to be
the greatest civilization that has ever existed for multiple reasons,
including its sheer longevity and also its technological prowess.
Ancient China, like other civilizations, had to defend against

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invasion. To prevent roaming Mongol hordes from taking over

their lands, the Chinese built the Great Wall of China over the
course of many centuries.
With such a large empire, it is a testament to the strength of the
Chinese that they managed to keep their civilization intact to this
day. Only the Mongolian Empire was able to secure a large piece
of Chinas northern territory. Chinese civilization today stretches
from the Tibetan plateau to the northeastern Mandarin region, and
far southeast to the Cantonese villages.
The Ancient Chinese were the first to invent paper, the
compass, printing, and gunpowder. Interestingly, the Chinese
originally used gunpowder to create fireworks displays for
children. It was not until an accident at a storage facility that
gunpowder revealed its true potential, both in its destructive
capacity, as well as its excavation potential.
The Ancient Chinese also developed music theory with a
unique five-tone scale known as the pentatonic scale, in contrast to
todays western diatonic/heptatonic 7-note scale. Much of the
music theory of Ancient China is otherwise quite similar to the rest
of music theory taught in schools around the world today. Their
most unique instruments of the time period were made of bamboo,
an excellent resonating material. Flutes and reeds were highly
popular instruments. Their two distinct languages, Mandarin and
Cantonese, also have a four-tone and five-tone differences,
respectively.

BEYOND THE FIRST CIVILIZATIONS

Many other civilizations would sprout up after these first ones

appeared. Often times new civilizations would appear after a weak
one would split from war and attrition, disease and famine, or
changes in climate forced some of its inhabitants to migrate to
other areas. The rise and fall of civilizations occurred particularly
in Europe, until the Roman Empire around 27 B.C. began to unite
all of the surrounding warring tribes and independent villages.

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From the Atlantic Ocean to the Caspian Sea, the Roman

Empire grew to be the greatest civilization the world would see for
hundreds of years after its existence. While all civilizations that
came before achieved great things, the Roman Empire reached
new heights in construction techniques with expansive cities and
road networks, the most complex language to have ever existed,
Latin, an alphabet still used today, and a great many systems of
law.
If it were not for barbarian hordes attacking, and internal unrest
caused by the empire attempting to expand beyond its capabilities,
its quite possible the Roman Empire would have been the first
civilization to reach what we would define as a modern society. As
with all of the civilizations that came before, though, the Roman
Empire eventually began to fracture around 117 A.D. with the
death of the emperor Trajan.
The Dark Ages began shortly after the Roman Empire
collapsed. Progress in resource discovery and economic growth
came to a halt in Europe. Centuries passed with human society
using nearly the same materials and resources they had used during
the previous ages. In fact, nearly every natural metal that exists
today, not counting alloys, was discovered before the Middle Ages
even began.2 The refining process and discovery of new alloys was
only picked up again around the start of the Enlightenment period
in the 17th century.

RISE OF ISLAM AND A GREAT CHANGE

A wide array of differing beliefs, traditions, and rituals arose

within these civilizations, including the three most widespread
monotheistic religions: Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Each has
transformed the world in different ways, yet the Golden Age of
Islam was unique in that it once provided a foundation for
scientific study.
Islam originated back in the early seventh century in the
Arabian city of Mecca when the prophet Muhammad claimed to
have received a revelation from God (Allah). Muhammad was

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alone in a cave at the time he had the revelation. He shared the

story of what he had seen with others, and the religion of Islam
began to take root. The story of someone alone in a cave receiving
a vision has been told in various ways in many other religions.
Stories are powerful tools for directing a society toward a set of
goals, regardless of whether the underlying assertions are true or
not. Muhammad single-handedly managed to sow the seeds of a
worldwide religion with his tales and conquests.
The following centuries were a time of great progress for the
Islamic civilization. One extraordinary achievement was a vast
mercantile trade network that stretched all the way to China with
their sophisticated three-masted caravel ships. Roads were
constructed, along which many villages were built, and different
kinds of food were grown, creating a variety of goods and wares
for sale.
Astronomy and mathematics became a significant public
scientific endeavor. Many of the stars in the sky and the
constellations have names that were given to them at this time.
Muhammad Algoritmi, whose Latin name means algorithm, was a
Persian mathematician who helped spread advanced mathematics,
including algebra, to the West. These innovations contributed to
the Golden Age of Islam which lasted from around the eighth to
the thirteenth centuries A.D.
One of the greatest ideas in the religion was the ijtihad, which
means independent reasoning. Individuals were taught to think for
themselves and to question the beliefs and ideas of others. Few
things were out of the bounds of discussion, with the exception of
religious texts and laws. Ijtihad focused on the betterment of the
whole civilization through the work of individuals. The basis for
todays scientific principles was founded on some of the early
versions of ijtihad.
Taqlid, on the other hand, is an idea in Islam that focused on
the individuals obligations to the religion and it demands
unquestioning acceptance. Taqlid is about conditioning oneself to
Allah, and not asking why. Elements of Taqlid would eventually
find their way into the Koran, and they are still practiced by

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Muslims today. Questioning the ideology is blasphemous and

punishable through a variety of laws. Even verifying facts for
scientific purposes is often not allowed. The anti-rationalist school
called Ashari arose partly because some people were so opposed
to scientific reasoning. This anti-science movement grew in
popularity and even resulted in the banning of teaching of many
subjects in schools. As Taqlid continued to outlaw science and
critical thinking, progress gave way to decline.
War, pillaging, suffering, and disease contributed to a steady
unraveling of the Golden Age of Islam. Greed within the Islamic
empire slowly took its toll; great libraries and institutions lost
support or were completely destroyed, and the overall quality of
life and opportunities of the people waned. A vicious cycle of
corruption quickly set in which exists to this day.
Unfortunately, as time went on, taqlid triumphed over ijtihad.
Taqlid appealed to those who had true power, as well as to those
who wished to maintain the illusion of power. Ideas can be
powerful motivators for good, but they can also be motivators for
poor decision making, especially when they are not based on facts
and reason. Once the process of forbidding critical thought begins,
history shows that it can often take a long time to recover from the
strife and retrogression that causes a spiral into an age of darkness.
From the start of the Bronze Age to the end of the Middle Ages
there is a span of at least 4,000 years. Extend that back by another
5,000 years to include the Neolithic period and its first
civilizations, and roughly 10,000 years of civilization is on record.
Before civilizations even appeared, Homo sapiens existed for more
than a hundred thousand years.

OTHER CIVILIZATIONS

Whether through written language or spoken word,

civilizations have passed on their inventions, discoveries and
culture to generations that followed. Acquiring such a vast
reservoir of information that is continually added to and improved
upon allows us to overcome barriers to progress. For example,

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sending a piece of metal (a rocket) to the moon with humans along

for the ride could never have been achieved by a single individual.
All of the steps required to get to that point took time to discover,
develop, and put into place.
Here is a list of some other prominent civilizations in history
worth researching:
Ancient Americas
Ancient Egypt
Ancient Greece
Ancient India
Aztec Empire
Babylonian Empire
British Empire
Byzantine Empire
China and its dynasties
Incan Empire
Minoan Empire
Mongolian Empire
Ottoman Empire
Persian Empire
Roman Empire
Russian Empire
Scandinavia in Viking times
Umayyad Caliphate

DEFINING SCIENCE AND HOW IT IS MISUSED

Science: The intellectual and practical activity encompassing

the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the natural
physical world through observation and experiment. Oxford
English Dictionary
The methods and procedures that have characterized science
since the 17th century consist of prediction, observation,
measurement, experimentation, falsification, and the formulation,
testing, checking, and modification of ideas. Of these words, I
want to call out experimentation. We run experiments to determine

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whether observations agree with or conflict with our initial

predictions. We toss out the idea if it does not conform to the body
of evidence. Evidence and collection of facts are not disregarded
because of emotional appeal of a contrary idea it is important to
reserve emotional judgement.
We have seen in recent history amidst geopolitics that the word
science sometimes has a negative connotation.
I dont believe in science and respect my own views about
how the world works, some might say to show that they do not
accept scientific truths, often for religious or emotional reasons, or
simply because the scientific ideas are beyond their field of
conceptualization.
Worse still, they may think facts fall within the realm of
opinion: Thats your science, not mine. Glancing for a moment
at the definition of science will tell you that this is a nonsensical
(and often a purely defensive) statement from those who wish to
stifle discussion on matters that make them uncomfortable. This
disconnect between the inquiry about our world and the rejection
of its actual results is both fascinating and terrifying to come
across.
We live in a reality that does not cater to our personal whims
and emotional appeals, and yet many go about their lives as if the
world was made just for them. Especially when something does
not go according to their expectations, they think it is either
someone elses fault or perhaps Gods mysterious will.
Fortunately, we do not live in a world that caters to everyones
personal views, or it would be a chaotic landscape none of us
would probably want to inhabit. Science helps us to discover our
shared reality, regardless of whether we like what it reveals and
how we personally fit into its tapestry.

THE AGE OF ENLIGHTENMENT

The Age of Enlightenment was an era of intellectual

advancement that flourished from the 1680s through the 1790s.
There was a collective goal of exploration and progress in many

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disciplines, including philosophy, political thought, social theory,

science, art, economics and law. Numerous closely knit nations
cooperated freely in the exchange of ideas. Innovative thinkers of
the period came from many countries, but the majority hailed from
England, Scotland, France, Germany, and America. Traveling
from one region to another had become safer and easier, which
aided the spread of ideas.
During the Age of Enlightenment many great intellectuals rose
to international prominence. Some of the most well-known are
John Locke, Sir Isaac Newton, Thomas Paine, Voltaire, Thomas
Jefferson, Immanuel Kant, Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Montesquieu,
Benjamin Franklin, Adam Smith, and Mozart, among many others.
What they had in common was a resolve to improve the human
condition by understanding the world from evidence-based
viewpoints that relied on logic and reason for discovery. Debates
that occurred were very different from those of previous centuries
that focused heavily on prejudice and superstition. The
Enlightenment marked a turning point in history when humans
committed to uncovering, proving and valuing truths, using such
means as empirical examination, fervent deliberation, inner
reflection, logical argumentation, and the scientific method.
One fundamental tenet of the Enlightenment was that
individuals have inalienable rights that they are born with. As
outlined by the Founding Fathers of the United States of America,
the government's responsibility is to protect those rights; rights
could not be considered as granted to individuals by governments,
because then governments would have the power to take those
rights away. Individuals were encouraged to know freedom,
prosperity, comfort and happiness. Individuals had freedom to
practice their various religions, without interference from the state.
Ending religious fanaticism that led to persecution and torture was
an imperative to Locke, Voltaire, Jefferson, and nearly all others.
Individuals were similarly allowed to compete in a free, laissez-
faire market economy that would no longer favor the privileged as
a matter of course on the contrary, equal opportunity and social
mobility began to permeate all elements of society. The common

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man was thus liberated, and the predominance of despotism began

to peter out.
Just as important as having great thinkers to come up with ideas
was a way to retain that knowledge and encourage its use in the
future. Books were published in greater number than ever before,
encyclopediae and dictionaries were compiled, and great libraries
and universities were built to pass the knowledge and wisdom on
to future scholars.
Scientists understood how critical it was to remove biases that
would otherwise distort the facts. Superstition was thrown aside,
and by replacing it with truth, countless discoveries and inventions
followed that brought the whole of society the opportunity to learn
and discover. Schools became accessible to more than just the
aristocracy. Healthful innovations like new medicines, improved
hygiene, and safer food storage further improved the quality of life
and increased the average lifespan.
The Enlightenment was the greatest catalyst for progress
humanity had ever known, and its effects are still felt today.

THE GREAT THINKERS

While science today is largely a collaborative process found in

great institutions like universities, before the Enlightenment got
started, science relied on individuals to come up with theories in
mathematics, physics, and natural sciences. Some scientists
worked with a partner, or in a very small group, but, in general,
they worked alone. Scientists would solitarily test out their ideas
that later would be built upon by others.
Many great thinkers provided the framework to build
civilization as we see it today. Some of the more notable of them
are introduced next.

Sir Isaac Newton (Classical Physics)

One of the greatest scientists of all time was Sir Isaac Newton.
Born on December 25, 1642, in Lincolnshire, England, Newton

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lived for eighty-five years. His greatest achievement was the

discovery of what we now call Newtonian Physics, or Classical
Physics. This type of physics explores the macroscopic world we
can see around us and through telescopes. The equations of
Newtonian physics are still used today for things like celestial
mechanics (how the planets orbit the Sun) and how objects fall
here on Earth.
Newton wrote Philosophi Naturalis Principia Mathematica,
a set of books in which Newton used calculus to describe the
motion of the planets, as well as many other mathematical
formulae. The Principia laid the foundation for Newtonian
physics. It was written in Latin and published in 1687; it was not
published in English until 1729, two years after Newton's death,
with the title Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy.
Newton also built the first reflecting telescope to prove that
white light is actually a spectrum of colors. He was able to parse
out incoming light into separate colors with a prism for the first
time. Newton theorized that you could combine the light back into
its natural white form, which he successively did with an opposing
prism. The basis of electromagnetism and our modern inventions
are due in part to this important discovery.
You might also remember Newton's signature apple-falling
incident while he dozed off under an apple tree. The incident
occurred in the summer of 1666 when an apple literally fell upon
his head, sparking Newton's serious contemplation about what
exactly causes things to fall. Unfortunately, gravity won out over
the tree itself in 1816 when a storm toppled it over.

Adam Smith (Free Market Economics)

Adam Smith was born on June 16, 1723 in Fife, Scotland. A

more complicated European economic environment meant that
great thinkers began putting increasing research and thought into
the economy. For example, Adam Smith thought that a free market
was the best economic system for a civilization, and believed that
it could be sustained long term for hundreds, if not thousands, of

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years or more. He was highly influential in the development of the

free market system, though the idea itself had been conceived
much earlier. Smith wrote The Wealth of Nations (1776), still
widely read and respected by economists today. He also wrote
papers and books about morality and justice, most notably in The
Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759).
One of Smiths central ideas was the Invisible Hand the
idea that individuals can inadvertently promote the public interest
through working toward their own self-interest; we can rely on an
individuals desire for personal economic gain and security to
promote the economic gain and security of society as a whole.

Thomas Jefferson (Political Philosophy)

Thomas Jefferson was born on April 13, 1743 in Shadwell,

Virginia. He was one of the Founding Fathers of the United States
of America. He was the main author of the Declaration of
Independence. The third U.S. President, Jefferson served from
1801-1809. In 1803, he organized the Louisiana Purchase of land
extending from the Mississippi River to the Rocky Mountains, thus
more than doubling the size of the USA. Like Adam Smith,
Jefferson was a major supporter of a free market system and a
democratic society that had minimal government intervention. He
favored strong state and local government and weak federal
government, arguing that the people would be served better by
officials with strong local interest themselves. Jefferson also
designed and constructed by his own hands several buildings,
including his mansion home called Monticello. Jefferson was a
strong proponent of individual, political and religious freedom.

Charles Darwin (Evolution)

Another great thinker and perhaps the most controversial of

them all was Charles Darwin, born February 12, 1809 in
Shrewsbury, England. His theory of evolution helped future
generations to understand the human species and its origins.

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Before Darwins work, philosophers were largely guessing at how

we came about on Earth.
Darwin spent years traveling the world, including five years on
the Royal Navy ship the HMS Beagle. While the others on the ship
charted coastlines, Darwin spent his time on land investigating
geology, ecology and zoology. He also collected samples to send
back to England. The fossils and other examples of biodiversity,
along with the journal he kept of his travels, created much
excitement back home.
As the ship sailed from continent to continent, Darwin began
to see patterns in and connections between the processes of the
planet and the biology covering it. Some of his observations did
not make sense to him at first. For example, he found identical
species on separate continents and wondered how that could be.
He noticed plants and animals that were similar, yet still different
enough to call a separate species. His genius helped him notice
similarities and differences, as well as how the surrounding
environment played a role in shaping them. He observed that
tortoises mouths were shaped just right to consume the available
food, and the larger and tougher the nuts they ate, the larger and
tougher were their beaks. Darwin termed the biological changes
made over time that adapt nature to its environment natural
selection. Darwin then thought about the amount of time it would
likely take for biological changes to happen, and the big picture of
evolution started to come together.
Darwin also studied steep geological formations like the
volcanic rocks on the shore of St. Jago, a large island of Cape
Verde off the west coast of Africa. His observations caused him to
suspect that Earth was vastly older than anyone previously had
thought possible. Our planet had to be incredibly ancient, he
figured a simple concept, yet beyond what most minds would
have been able to discern.
Many of Darwins ideas were written off as preposterous at the
time (and still are by some people today). Darwin succeeded by
changing his preconceptions to fit the facts, instead of awkwardly
trying to fit the facts to popular preconceptions.

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Albert Einstein (Early Modern Physics)

Albert Einstein, one of the most renowned scientists in the

fields of physics and modern cosmology, was born in Germany in
1879. Einstein showed us how life, stars, planets, and everything
else came to be since the Universe formed 13.8 billion years ago.
His general theory of relativity outlines how the Universe behaves
at large scales, a critical piece of the puzzle of how matter formed
after the Universe was born.
Einstein greatly expanded upon the physics laid down by
Newton. While Newtonian physics works well enough for
describing how the planets orbit the Sun, how gravity works on
everyday objects, and what tosses us around when were on a roller
coaster, it doesnt describe very well the properties of the atomic
or subatomic realms. In conjunction with Max Planck, Einstein
introduced to the world an entirely new branch of physics called
quantum physics, which we are still trying to fully understand.
In the subatomic realm, particles behave in ways we cannot
precisely measure. Before atoms were seen in an electron
microscope, Einstein suggested that particles could spontaneously
appear out of nowhere, and that space itself across the Universe is
a foam of these virtual particles randomly appearing and then
quickly disappearing again. Another oddity of quantum physics
includes the pairing of particles across great distances. This
coupling, termed entanglement, would cause one particle to
instantly affect the other, regardless of how far apart they were.
Einstein famously called this spooky action at a distance. It turns
out that Einsteins idea about entanglement was correct.
Einstein tried to stay in Berlin for as long as possible, mainly
to do whatever he could to stop the war effort. In 1933, he narrowly
escaped the onslaught of the Nazi war machine and left Europe for
the United States. Einstein became an American citizen in 1940.
A few weeks before Hitler invaded Poland, Einstein sent a
letter to President Franklin D. Roosevelt to warn him that scientists
were starting to think that extremely powerful bombs of a new
type could be made using the element uranium. The letter also

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advised Roosevelt that Germany had blocked the sale of uranium

from the Czechoslovakian mines it controlled. President Roosevelt
took Einsteins words very seriously.
It is hard to say what would have happened to the world if not
for this warning. The book and subsequent TV series, The Man in
the High Castle, illustrates this alternate reality exquisitely.
Consider what would have happened if Einstein, who grew up in
Germany, had been indoctrinated with the evil ideology of
Nazism? What if he had wanted to work for the German side? Or
imagine if he had been unable to flee Germany? They would have
forced Einstein to work for them. The irony that this letter to the
President of the United States came from a German scientist is
weighty. We owe a lot to the fact that Einstein had a good heart.
This goes to show the damage that can be done when genius and
the technology it creates gets coupled with evil.
When asked about his work on the atomic bomb, Einstein often
told people, I do not consider myself the father of the release of
atomic energy. My part in it was quite indirect. During World
War II, while many scientists were writing about supporting the
war effort, no matter what the cost, Einstein wrote about peace.
My pacifism is an instinctive feeling, a feeling that possesses me
because the murder of men is abhorrent.
Just before his death in 1955, Einstein signed the Russell-
Einstein manifesto, in which eleven renowned scientists implored
world leaders to grasp the seriousness of the threat of the
proliferation of nuclear arms. Einsteins wisdom shone through
when he said, I know not with what weapons World War III will
be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and
stones.

Stephen Hawking (Modern Physics)

Stephen Hawking is one of the most famous physicists since

Albert Einstein, and arguably as great as Einstein in his
contributions to our understanding of the Universe. In contrast
with many other scientists, Hawking loves to be in the spotlight.

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Hawking got his first chance to peek into the mysteries of the
Universe when he began studying physics at the University of
Oxford. A few years later, he moved to the University of
Cambridge to study astronomy and cosmology.
One of Hawkings greatest contributions to science was his
breakthrough idea about the origin of the Universe; he proposed
that the Universe started as a singularity (a single point of space
and time), working from Roger Penroses theory about how theres
a singularity at the center of black holes.
In 1963, at the age of 21, just as his college years were in full
swing, Hawking was diagnosed with ALS, a debilitating motor
neuron disease also known as Lou Gehrigs disease. The condition
slowly incapacitates the body by shutting down the muscular
system, eventually rendering it impossible to speak or move at all.
Imagine being trapped in your mind with the genius of
Hawking, but back during the Dark Ages without technology to
assist in communicating with the outside world. The disease is a
certain death sentence for anyone not living in the age of
technology. At the time of his diagnosis, doctors told Hawking he
would live for only another three years. Hawking is still alive, 54
years later.
Most of Hawkings work in theoretical physics over the last
few decades has concerned black holes. Black holes are objects in
space that are so massive that nothing can escape the gravitational
pull within them, not even light. Black holes form from the
collapse of massive stars at least 5-10 times more massive than our
Sun. These stars explode in a brilliant supernova event, blowing
off much of their material into deep space. The remaining material
quickly collapses in on itself, forming a black hole. Contrary to
popular belief, if the Sun were replaced with a black hole of the
same mass, Earth would still orbit it in precisely the same way. We
would, however, experience a permanently dark sky and much
lower temperatures.
In the 1970s, Hawking showed that anything that falls into a
black hole is lost forever. However, this theory contradicts
everything we currently know about quantum mechanics.

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Hawking was the first to recognize this inconsistency; to this day,

he works with other scientists to resolve the problem, known as the
black hole information paradox.
Hawking also studies the possibilities of alien life and artificial
intelligence. In his more recent writings, he suggests that we can
expect alien civilizations to be hostile to humans, should we ever
encounter them. He thinks it is likely that a visitation from outer
space would be in the name of taking our resources, not saying
hello. Hawking also suggests that humans are far too slow to adapt
to artificial intelligence. He is trying to ring the alarm that A.I. will
soon become a threat to humanity.

HOPE AS A CATALYST FOR PROGRESS

Hope can be a powerful driver for change, just as much as fear

can be. Hope gives us a reason to invest in long-term endeavors
that may not bear fruit until future generations can realize the
benefits. As long as we want to build a better future for our
children, then we will eventually succeed through hope.
Historically, when the future of a civilization was shrouded in
darkness, maintaining hope and achieving a sense of purpose as a
civilization has been much trickier. The spread of fear throughout
the Dark Ages led to despair about the future. Thus little change
occurred during this time to progress civilization. During the
Renaissance period, the light slowly returned, and hope
flourished.3 Hope allowed enlightened thinkers to feel free to
explore new ideas in all areas, and despair about the future was no
longer the norm.

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CHAPTER 4: THE ENGINE OF

MODERN CIVILIZATION
Modern technology has become a total phenomenon for
civilization, the defining force of a new social order in which
efficiency is no longer an option but a necessity imposed on all
human activity. - Jacques Ellul

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For thousands of years, humans were barely able to survive

with infrequent sources of food and minimal shelter, and there was
almost no progress in technology or technique to secure new food
sources and shelter. In many areas of the world during the Bronze
Age, the average lifespan was just 26 years. Eventually, humans
began exploring their surroundings with greater urgency, and in
doing so they acquired new skills that led to the beginnings of
civilization.
Many early civilizations adopted methods of agriculture,
medicines, and other techniques that set the stage for improving
upon these techniques over the thousands of years that followed.
We were able to create the industrial world we live in today only
after an era of relative stability when new ideas flourished, thanks
to an enlightened grounding in science and reason. A single
example of the result of this advancement, the average human
lifespan, has since tripled.
The Age of Enlightenment brought about refinements in
technologies and tools that freed up more time for humans to study
what the world could offer humanity. For instance, it no longer
took ones entire day to acquire food. Population growth soon
exploded, along with an increased human lifespan. With a
population that was increasing in number as well as in education
level, there were more people with diverse skills who became
experts at countless new crafts. This diversification allowed
further discoveries in technological niches that eventually led to
complex technologies like computers and space rockets.

THE LONG ROAD OF PROGRESS

Progress demands increasing complexity and rates of growth

that are difficult to get started, and tricky to maintain. Along with
a stable society, there needs to be a means for long-term
accumulation of knowledge that can be passed on to the next
generation. If knowledge is lost between generations, civilization
may never be able to get to the stage of building an airplane that
requires the discovery of electricity, plastics, fuel, and so on. Each

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piece requires a long chain of discoveries and progress that came

before.
Another way to think of it is there is no conceivable way a
blacksmith in the Bronze Age would wake up one day and be able
to build an internal combustion engine the requisite metals and
tools would not yet exist. The blacksmith would be hitting a limit
of progress achievable by a single individual. Especially in cases
of extreme complexity like the internal combustion engine,
hundreds of years of scientific knowledge and preceding
technologies would be required before being able to build that
engine, even if all the plans were right in front of the blacksmith.

A Scenario in a Galaxy, Far, Far Away

On planet Noble IV, the people of a budding civilization look

up at the stars in wonder of their place in the cosmos. Hanging
bright and clear nearly every night are two large moons that shine
a pale green. Both are full shaped one evening when a promising
young scholar walks out from his forest dwelling on the edge of
town. Joshua looks up and sees oceans and inland seas on both
moons. Nearby towns had been fighting over resources in an
increasingly drought-stricken land in recent years, stealing food,
water, and even their women. If only he could build a tall enough
ladder to reach the moons, his family might find a safe haven from
the chaos around them.
After several months of thinking about the moons, Joshua
decided to learn more about a few neighboring tribes that seemed
to be friendly towards his own. He had an idea that if all of the
friendly tribes could be convinced to work together, they could
build a ladder tall enough to reach a moon and escape the local
turmoil.
Joshua one morning traveled to a neighboring town with
supplies to set up shop. He began making friends sympathetic to
his ideas, though he soon discovered that the town already had its
own plan for reaching the moons. They worked together over the
course of the next several years to gather wood and bindings to

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build a tower. Eventually the tower reached a height that they

calculated was, at most, only a few hundred feet away from the
moons. One piece of evidence was that on a clear night the birds
seemed to brush the surface of the moon when passing overhead,
appearing to take a sip from one of the many lakes before
disappearing beyond the tree line.
As Joshuas team tied anchors to a spot on the ground, they
quickly discovered that the structural base of the tower was going
to require more material to remain stable than they had acquired.
Some people suggested using a type of rock in the nearby
mountains that could be piled up to anchor the sticks. They spent
another year locating the rock, finding just enough that was not too
embedded in the mountain, yet they still had trouble reaching
higher than the tree tops. The base of the tower quickly grew too
wide, needing an exponential amount of more rock for every inch
in height that was added.
After a few more years of attempts, most of the workers quit
and went off to work on farms, or defend the border lands from
increasing hostilities with neighboring tribes. Even those from
friendly tribes headed home. Joshuas project that initially looked
encouraging ended before it could really begin. He realized that
reaching the moons was going to take more than a few friends
building a rickety tower. There simply were not enough materials
and manpower for the task. He wondered if there ever would be a
time when his tribe would reach the moons, and what that era
would look like.

Revisiting a Star Trek Movie Scenario

The above story is a good example of people in an era of little

technology working together to achieve a far reaching goal (even
though they may have failed). In the movie Star Trek: First
Contact, there is a scenario that provides another example of a
group of individuals working to achieve a goal. This time though
the technologies exist for the task at hand, but hidden across a
world shattered by war.

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The scenario plays out just a couple of decades into our future,
when humanity is devastated by a nuclear holocaust and has no
means of interstellar travel. Even so, a small group of survivors
manage to convert an abandoned missile into a spaceship, and one
that is capable of faster than light travel. The girlfriend of the
designer stresses that it took her months to collect enough titanium
just to build the spaceship, and that they would have only one shot
at success.
They successfully launch the spaceship years after acquiring
the needed materials, and once in orbit, engage the warp drive for
a few seconds test. The burst of warp energy occurs at just the right
moment to signal a passing alien spaceship. The alien ship diverts
its course towards Earth to greet the band of survivors, ushering in
a new era for humanity.
Although in the movie they achieve the great feat of building a
spaceship, it is still unrealistic to think that one small group could
build an interstellar craft without an entire civilization supporting
their efforts, especially in such a ragtag way as the movie portrays.

THE GREAT TECHNOLOGICAL LADDER

Until the invention of mechanization, the typical daily life of a

family consisted of someone managing the home, while others
would work on the farm or go out hunting to collect food. Each
generation would repeat necessary tasks day in and day out with
little change.
Today, we take for granted the technology that makes our daily
lives easier, and perhaps arguably, more enjoyable. We lose sight
of the many steps it took to get civilization this far. For instance,
you may have gone to the kitchen to get something out of the fridge
this morning. For that fridge to exist at all, a series of increasingly
complex technologies had to come about first. They start with the
metal housing, electrical conductivity to power its functions, and
rare gases to drive the coolant. There are also the lights, rubber
seals, and a nice colored finish.

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You probably switched on a light within the past few hours. A

set of technologies had to already be in place in order to get
electricity to the bulb. There is the wiring within the buildings
walls, as well as transmission lines crisscrossing throughout the
area, travelling perhaps hundreds of kilometers from a distant
power station. That station is processing fuel that was sourced from
afar, possibly on another continent. Even the power plant itself is
a bundle of technologies with millions of components, requiring
years of operator expertise.
Those not versed in construction techniques could still outline
the resources and tools it would take to build a treehouse. Even
though the details of how to make a comfortable, sturdy one might
be unknown, people would have a basic idea of what was required.
The details we would not necessarily know could be called
Known Unknowns.1 We know something is missing, and have a
guess as to what it might be. Then there are Unknown
Unknowns, which we know nothing about.
Without the required knowledge of science, Joshua did not
have the ability to foresee what it would take to construct a tower
of such magnitude. For Joshua, there were too many Unknown
Unknowns for him to succeed. Whereas his method of escaping
the planet was of course absurd, our civilization does have the
required knowledge and capability to go to our moon. To reach this
level of knowledge required much time, research, innovation and
technological progress that young Joshua did not have. The
process is going to be a long and difficult one that only a few
civilizations ever achieve, even in the best of conditions. This
process of discovery and invention over many centuries in a stable
environment will apply to every alien civilization out there as well,
including the alien rescuers in the second scenario above.
A technological civilization like ours depends upon many
materials and forms of energy to sustain itself and further develop.
Let us review some of them so we can better understand why the
road of technological advancement is so long and complex,
especially if we are to have any hope of maintaining a presence in
space long-term.

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FIRE AN ENERGY CATALYST

Every form of energy generation that is usable, whether a

biological system, nuclear power plant, or the Sun itself, requires
converting materials into other forms in order to extract work
energy. This tenet of physics has propelled the evolution of our
species, and now the evolution of our civilization. For example,
our bodies are able to function by converting raw materials, i.e.
food, into an energy source, glucose, a simple carbohydrate or
sugar. Once converted, this sugar is then driven to the cells through
the bloodstream where it can be directly processed into work
energy, including converting food into yet more glucose.
Starting with the simplest of all ways to extract energy out of
natural materials, the use of fire through burning wood and other
materials was discovered long before humans had any knowledge
of other energy types. Once fire was brought to bear, our species
learned to use it as a catalyst to extract energy for cooking food,
heating the home, and eventually waging war. I say catalyst
because it is not a source of energy so much as an actual tool for
obtaining energy from materials. Without the use of fire, energy in
wood, coal, and other non-renewable sources would forever
remain locked up in their original and unworkable form.
What if Earth was 100% covered by water, or the atmosphere
was filled with gases that do not allow for the combustion of
materials? It is conceivable that we never would have even entered
the Stone Age if it were not for the controlled use of fire.
Fortunately, producing fire is not a problem on Earth, and
conceivably not a problem on any planet that has oxygen in its
atmosphere and materials to burn.

NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

For hundreds of thousands of years, fire provided a basic

means of heating and cooking, until early civilizations found other
uses. Wood was the main fuel (and still is in many parts of the
world). Wood is easily burned with fire and requires no special

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preservation. Until the last few centuries, it also grew fast enough
to be replenished in just a couple of generations. Our thirst for
energy has since far outstripped what chopping down trees can
provide.
The Age of Enlightenment brought us to a new energy era in
the early 1800s around the time of the Napoleonic Wars. Advanced
technologies were being developed across the globe at an
accelerating rate, particularly in Europe and North America.
Discoveries through scientific investigation became an expected
occurrence, and the search for more powerful forms of energy
accompanied this growth in technology.

Coal An Easy Grab

Technological civilization really got its start when humans

discovered the potential in burning coal. A lumpy dark substance,
coal is the most plentiful non-renewable energy source in the
world. In the 1700s, the English found that coal could burn hotter
and more cleanly than wood charcoal. Coal-burning stoves and
other appliances were soon developed. This marked the first time
coal was used for more than generating heat. The very first coal
deposits discovered were literally resting on the ground, so it did
not take much to gather enough to heat your home for the winter
months.
Once the majority of people had a coal stove in the home,
easily obtained sources quickly became scarce. Mining techniques
were soon developed to get more coal from deep underground.
There was also a shortage of steel needed to build ever-expanding
urban areas. As industry grew, coal was found to be a great catalyst
for the production of steel through the coking process. Coke (not
to be confused with the soft drink) is a solid, carbonaceous fuel left
over from coal processing. It took a lot of coal to produce a
sufficient amount of coke for the smelting process roughly 770
kg of coal to make just one ton of steel.
Efficiency of the coking process increased significantly over
the 20th century through further technological refinements. These

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changes were expensive to implement, but mining coal sources

became increasingly more difficult, so it was an important
investment to make. Eventually the process was refined enough to
mitigate the initial costs.

Petroleum The Bubblin Brew

After we burned all of the easily mined coal, another source of

energy was required that was both simpler to store and had a higher
density of energy. Petroleum was fortunately discovered right in
time for our needs. First there was the easy skimming of oil off of
lakes, much like the American Indians did for clothing production.
Petroleum also seeped right out of the ground, requiring little effort
to capture it. The Beverly Hillbillies TV show has an introductory
scene where Jed JD Clampett shoots the ground with a gun and
up comes the bubblin brew, as they called it. Yet now, nearly
every deposit of oil that can be economically extracted by an
individual with readily available tools has been used up.
Around the time that oil was becoming a world energy source,
the United States was becoming an economic leader. As the U.S.
expanded its reach across the globe, the demand for oil increased.
After World War II, Alaska became a leading state of domestic oil
production, as well as California and Texas. More recently
discovered reserves include the great Sugar Loaf field in Brazil,
Azadegan field in Iran, Cantarell Field in Mexico, and several
others. Tapping into each new discovery came with increasingly
complex extraction methods. Nearly every discovery in the last
few decades has been kilometers out to sea and hundreds of feet
below the ocean floor. The only new areas yet to be fully explored
lie under ice beds in the Arctic.

Natural Gas

While natural gas was a known energy source in China as early

as the 4th century B.C., it proved too costly to refine and transport,
so it did not get much use until late in the 20th century. The

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Chinese were one of the first civilizations to use it to boil water to

cook food. They even had a crude system of procuring the gas from
seeps in the ground through hollow bamboo reeds.
Today, natural gas is used all around the world, though
primarily in the northern hemisphere where it is most abundant and
easily transported. Discovering gas reservoirs is similar to finding
other petroleum reserves, as they often are situated underground
and near each other. Quite often when a rig is set up for oil
extraction, they will come up with natural gas first. In the early
days of oil discovery, this gas was largely burned off, as it was still
too costly to transport. Now we use it to heat our homes and power
our electrical generation facilities as a somewhat cleaner
alternative to coal and oil.

Tar Sands The New Oil

Related to conventional petroleum sources, tar sands consist of

a combination of clay, sand, water, and bitumen, a heavy black
viscous oil. Tar sands are so thick with other materials that they
need to be heavily processed. Tons of earth are removed and mixed
with water to get to the petroleum-like substance. Even after this
process has been completed, the new substance has to be further
refined because it is still too thick for anything but literal tar needs,
like road pavement. The mined area almost never fully recovers
ecologically, even if effort goes into preserving it. Tar sands are
still plentiful in northerly countries like Canada.
Factoring in tar sands and other forms of petroleum, current
reserves took hundreds of millions of years to accumulate. The
process occurred through the natural compression of decayed
matter settling mainly on the ocean floor, as well as certain land
areas with heavy vegetation. Even some abiogenic sources that do
not rely on living matter have been found and used. Regardless of
the source, millions of years needed to pass in order to produce
what modern civilization will have used in just a few hundred
years.

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INVENTORY OF NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES

Humans finally achieved a level of ingenuity to construct

buildings reaching higher than the clouds, to fly its inhabitants far
over those clouds in metal tubes called airplanes, and to destroy
every one of its great achievements in a single nuclear instant, yet
we still rely upon energy sources that come from the decayed
matter of long-dead organisms. How many plants and animals had
to perish to fuel that fifteen gallons of gas in your car? About 1.3
million kilograms of prehistoric, buried organic matter! To create
just one gallon of gasoline, about 87,000 kilograms of decayed
matter is needed.
How much of all non-renewable resources are left to extract
out of the ground, and at economically sensible rates? In searching
for an answer to this question, I found many references to real
reserves, which is quite a different thing from proven reserves.
Proven reserves are those known to exist, while real reserves are
those we suppose exist but have not proven yet. Real reserves are
up to four times proven reserve amounts. Below I use the most
conservative statistics possible, to ensure that we are well within
the margin of error:

Resource Reserves Years Left

Aluminum 38 Trillion Tons 60-120

Coal 909 Billion Tons 75-155

Copper 690 Billion Tons 70-125

Gold 165,000 Tons 40-100

Iron 2,563 Trillion Tons 150+

Natural Gas 6,638 Trillion Cubic Feet 35-100

Oil 1.4 Trillion Barrels 45-140

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In a matter of just a few centuries, we will have practically used

up all of the non-renewable energy and material resources that
have thus far fueled the foundation for modern civilization. Some
of these resources can be extended by a few hundred years if we
are extremely efficient at recycling, and maybe if we get lucky in
finding previously unknown reserves. There are multiple ways to
estimate where and how much more resources there might be,
though, a reason charts like the above exist.
With such quickly dwindling resources, we will face a great
challenge later this century to sustain civilization and leave
resources for our future children. What is the solution? For energy
reserves, there are two options available: renewable sources on
Earth and sources in outer space. Eventually it will all need to be
acquired from outer space, even if we maximize recycling here on
Earth. You can think of our planet as a giant non-renewable ball of
surface materials with much of that material forever altered by
humans. The same technically goes for everything in space as well,
but on such a grand scale that we cannot fathom ever using it all.
There are plenty of raw resources in space for trillions of humans.
It has been estimated by NASA and other agencies that the
economic worth in todays dollars of all resources within all of the
asteroids in the asteroid belt would be equivalent to 100 billion
dollars per person. One particular asteroid, 2011 UW158, has an
estimated 90 million tons of platinum. Earths entire known
reserves of platinum only amounts to a scant 66,000 tons, or .07
percent of the asteroids reserves. Do the math on a standard
calculator and youll get an error, as it is too large of a number!
Constraining this number to ensure projections are not overly
inflated, the estimated value is still in the thousands of trillions of
dollars, when directly comparing the value of resources on Earth.
This figure does not even factor in all of the other asteroids in the
solar system, including the distant Kuiper belt with its many bodies
rich with water ice.

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

Renewable sources are an answer to our future needs for

energy, however, the technologies that go with them can be
complicated to design and set up, at least for their first
implementations. For example, there may be thousands of persons
working together to develop technologies that will raise the
amount of energy from wind turbines by a few percentage points.
Non-renewable energy will have to be used to get the first sets of
renewable energy up and running.
We are going to look at five renewable resources, also called
renewables, starting with the more limited renewables, and
ending with the ones that are, for all practical purposes, infinite
and the most easily achieved with current technology.

Geothermal Power

Geothermal power comes from heat sourced deep

underground, usually accessed through fissures and hot springs
like the many in Yellowstone National Park. This resource is the
most limited of all renewables, with only twenty-five countries
having significant sources. Only a fraction of the locations
currently have generators installed, as many of the sources are in
national parks, preservations, or just not accessible. There are
about 73 gigawatts of energy being generated from geothermal
power worldwide. In contrast, there are more than 1,600 gigawatts
of solar energy being generated as of 2016.
Even though geothermal energy is tricky to harvest, it is
theoretically one of the renewables that will survive the longest. It
will continue to be a source of power for billions of years.
Geothermal energy will even survive the Suns future red giant
phase when the Sun will roast our planet, boiling off the oceans.
Earths internal heat still has to go somewhere, and that will be
through its then dry crust in the form of geothermal energy.

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Hydropower

The next renewable to consider is hydropower, with an

estimated energy potential of about 400-600 gigawatts worldwide.
This is more than 50 times geothermal powers capacity.
Hydropower uses the age-old method of putting to work flowing
waters natural kinetic energy, something civilization has been
doing for thousands of years. Even beavers and other animals put
up dams in rivers to create barriers that alter the natural flow.
Barring an environmental collapse or a sudden ice age,
hydropower will last almost as long as geothermal power.
Hydropower is also one of the cleanest of resources, to both
extract and to use, so we can be reasonably sure that all sources
will eventually be tapped, even those that previously seemed to
require too large of a structure to build and maintain. There are
only so many rivers and other flowing water bodies in the world
after all, and using the ocean currents will be limited to certain
coastal areas, at least in the foreseeable future.
The Chinese are known for their massive hydropower projects.
The Three Gorges Dam was built along the Yangtze River in the
heart of China in 2008, currently the largest dam ever constructed.
When the dam was approved in 1992, human rights activists
expressed concern about the people living along the river that were
forced to relocate, including everyone in two cities with
populations over 50,000. In total, about 1.2 million people in more
than 116 villages and towns were relocated. Compensation ranged
wildly, often depending on the family's connections with dam
administrators, but it averaged a measly 50 Yuan ($7) per month
for an entire family that may once have owned a significant portion
of land along the river.

Biomass

Biomass is fuel that is created from living, or recently living,

organic materials. Because these materials grow in nature, they are
renewable and sustainable sources of energy.

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While biomass has the potential to provide a significant portion

of the worlds renewable energy supply in the future, currently it
is neither easy to produce nor clean. Part of the problem with
producing it is that the biomass industry employs a wide variety of
technologies, depending on the feedstock, i.e. the source of
biomass. Feedstock can take on many forms, including wood,
crops, waste, as well as residues and post-processed substances
from these resources. Which feedstock is used mainly depends on
what is in the immediate area to harvest. After harvesting, there is
still a complex series of steps to create the actual material needed
to burn.
Another problem with biomass is that it produces a lot of
carbon pollutants as byproducts. Of all renewable technologies,
nuclear included, biomass is the only one that expels a great deal
of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere roughly 1.5 times that of
coal and 3-4 times that of natural gas. The production of biomass
also requires a lot of land, which can otherwise be used to grow
crops to feed the world.
Because of its many limitations, biomass should be considered
a temporary stepping stone on the way to an energy independence
built solely on renewables. Think of biomass as a staircase rail.
The rail is the support beam to get a step higher, but not completely
necessary to get to the top. Just dont hold on to it too tightly, for
it may break from supporting your weight.

Wind

Have you ever sailed a boat on a stormy day or tried to swim

against a river current? A lot of effort is required to keep stationary,
not to mention to make progress. As suggested in the hydropower
section, kinetic energy is our friend. Moving water is an excellent
source of kinetic energy, but there are limits as to where it can be
harvested. This is more or less not the case with wind. Wind can
be found everywhere there is an atmosphere, especially in higher
elevations.

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Lets get right to the downsides of wind, which are almost as

few as those of solar energy. Most of the problems relate to how
close the wind turbines can be placed to residential areas. Noise
can be a problem for some of the older blade technologies, so most
wind farms are established kilometers from the nearest urban area.
Because of this distance, expensive transmission lines have to be
installed and maintained. The distance problem is also caused by
some people simply not wanting to see the wind turbines in their
backyard. Personally, I find them elegant.
Threats to wildlife can also be a problem with wind farms,
though this should be carefully weighed against other
considerations. There are birds, including eagles, that get caught
up in the blades, and wind farms can threaten the habitats of local
flora and fauna. Yet we have to keep the big picture in mind
because the benefits of wind power are so great, and the drawbacks
are far fewer than media would like to suggest. We do not stop
driving cars because the occasional deer gets unfortunately hit
(quite possibly by the hunter that would have shot it anyway). In
short, wind powers ecological effects are extremely limited.
Once wind power catches on, wind turbines might be a natural
piece in the backyard, powering our homes at the cost of a few
blades spinning in the afternoon breeze. (There are even some
bladeless turbines being developed.) Renewable energy
technologies should ideally be self-sustainable to the homeowner,
or to the local community, and not reliant upon expensive state-
owned transmission lines wind power could help to provide this
independence. Wind power is becoming a relatively cheap and
clean solution that has the potential to deliver a significant portion
of our energy.

Solar (Photovoltaics)

There is only one other source of renewable energy that truly

has the capability to power our entire civilization for an infinite
amount of time, and that is the Sun. Thanks to the Suns abundant
supply of energy, there really is no other end-game better than

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solar power. For those occasions when the Sun doesnt shine,
alternative energy sources such as wind power and combined
battery technology can fill in.
There is not the need for endless sunny days to produce solar
power efficiently. For instance, Germany has a high percentage of
cloud cover throughout the year, but it still is a leader in solar
power. In fact, Germany produces the most solar power of any
country by a significant margin, with a total of 36 gigawatts.
Germany is one of the top countries in the adoption of new solar
technologies as well.
In addition to coming from a never-ending source, solar power
has many advantages. These include a small pollution footprint
and low cost, especially with economies of scale.
Yet the true beauty of solar power is its reliability. Once
installed, the photovoltaic panels can produce energy for several
decades with only minimal maintenance required. The panels can
be installed on any building, are not visual marring, completely
silent in operation, and they emit zero pollutants.
Cost of the panels are one of the few remaining concerns, and
those costs are coming down fast. In fact, many areas of the world
are already reaching parity with solar. Parity here means that the
cost of converting a particular energy source into usable energy is
equal to that of another source. For the first time in solar powers
history, it is beginning to outcompete non-renewables. As parity is
reached, the adoption of the new source will accelerate. Once
everyone has solar panels on their cars and homes, fossil fuels will
no longer be needed to engineer these renewable technologies.
Solar, wind, and a sprinkling of the other sources combined
would be enough to switch the entire world over to a safe and
sustainable energy supply. This would be especially welcomed in
Africa where developing countries have intermittent or limited
power generation, but plenty of sunlight for solar panels. To ram
home the point, transmission issues aside, it would only take
40,000 square kilometers of solar panels with todays technology
to power the entire world. This is an area slightly larger than the

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state of West Virginia. One relatively small piece of land and we

could change the world for the better.

INVENTORY OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES

As with the non-renewable sources table, all major renewable

sources are listed below. The amount left column has been replaced
with realistic potential. The 1 billion-year mark recognizes the
point at which the Suns steadily increasing luminosity will boil
away our oceans. The 4 billion-year mark recognizes the eventual
end of our planet when it is engulfed into the Sun during the Suns
red giant expansion phase (or at the very least, burnt to a crisp
beyond recognition).

Resources Potential/year Est. years left

Geothermal 22 TW 4+ billion years

Hydropower 16,400 TWh 1 billion years

Solar 174 petawatts 4+ billion years

Wave 2,000 TWh 1 billion years

Wind 10,800 TWh 4+ billion years*

*(if the atmosphere survives)

In reviewing the figures above, keep in mind that wave and

wind activity is so variable that these estimates will fluctuate
depending on journal sources. I also estimated 174 petawatts for
solar, which is a truly enormous amount. 174 petawatts is the entire
amount of solar energy that hits Earth at any given time. This is far
more than human civilization has ever used in total to date, and the
Sun hits our comparatively tiny planet with this amount! Put
another way, the Sun produces in one second all the energy we
would need for the next 500,000 years.

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By the end of World War II, just about every earth-based

energy source had already been discovered. The next step was to
figure out how to extract the bound-up energy. As humans
explored more options, new technologies were developed that
allowed for more difficult-to-reach raw material deposits to be
extracted. New ways of increasing the efficiency of current
machines extracting the material were also found. Only fusion and
antimatter remain as fundamental sources that are yet to be tapped,
because we currently have no easy, safe, and inexpensive way to
do so.

THE COMPLEXITY OF TECHNOLOGY

The technology that powers every device today is wildly more

complex than anything conceivable just a few hundred years ago.
This includes the tiny circuits on the inside of your cell phone to
the Gorilla Glass on the outside. And it isnt just the electronics
that have seen profound advances in efficiency and durability our
civilization as a whole is incredibly complex, and this is why
humanity is special and unique (yet probably still share traits with
beings from other worlds).
Ill speed this topic along by focusing on three areas: energy
infrastructure and transmission, i.e. the grid, photovoltaics and
energy storage, i.e. off-grid, and physical goods transportation.

Energy Transmission and Storage

There used to be two competing technologies when electricity

was first utilized. They were direct current (DC) and alternating
current (AC). While we still use both today in various devices, it
was AC that won out for powering our cities. Direct current has a
very limited range, so many repeaters would have to be installed
into a citys network in order for electricity to reach across town.
AC lacks this problem, as the voltage can be ramped up to
hundreds of thousands of volts and sent across long-distance wires
with virtually no loss in power. This is particularly useful for

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keeping nuclear power plants away from population centers, and

for tapping remote wind farms.
There are more than 764,000 kilometers of power transmission
lines that cross the United States. In order to ramp up the AC
voltage and then down again once electricity arrives at residential
centers, huge transformers have been strategically placed at key
points along the lines. There are thousands of these transformers,
and most of them cost millions of dollars, take months to construct,
and are usually shipped from overseas suppliers. Should a
nationwide grid outage occur, and these transformers are
permanently damaged, it is estimated that it would take at least
several months possibly even years to bring the grid back up to
100% capacity.
There are challenges to storing the energy generated by
renewables that do not exist with non-renewables. With non-
renewables, you have the ability to just keep the original material
stored until extraction of the energy is required. This is what we
do with gasoline in tanks underneath every gas station. With
renewable energy forms such as wind and solar, however, the raw
energy must be converted immediately into electricity there is no
intermediate storage medium. If the energy cannot be used at that
moment, the electricity generated must then be stored in some
other way.
Batteries are the answer. Elon Musk of Tesla Motors aims to
create a battery revolution for our renewable energy needs. Musk
is one individual that has clearly changed the world for the better
with his ideas, including how to power high-quality vehicles with
electricity. His team at Tesla Motors completed a battery factory
in 2016 they call Gigafactory 1 in the desert sands of Northwest
Nevada, where they will be able to build innovative battery packs
for both vehicular and home use. Economies of scale will keep the
costs down and in turn provide incentive for further growth of the
increasingly advanced field of energy storage.

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Physical Goods Infrastructure

In recent history, a family could get everything one needed

within a couple of kilometers of where they lived. Need food? Just
get it on the local farm. Need clothing? Walk down to the tailor
shop. This simplistic network of supply diminished as more exotic
materials were needed for the mass production of ever-
complicated products, and cheaper sources of labor were used to
put those products together.
The rare earth metals for your cell phone (which are not really
physically rare) are dug up in the heart of China. The rubber for
your cars tires probably comes from Malaysia, Brazil, or any
number of Southeast Asian countries. In order to get these raw
materials assembled into usable products, they need to first be
shipped across the world to make it to an assembly factory. Huge
container ships travel with millions of products on board, which
are then offloaded to container trucks that drive them across
countries to their destinations. The system for transporting goods
has become extensive. Transportation of goods is one of the largest
sectors for jobs today.
Jobs in transportation may become obsolete, however, just as
many jobs have become defunct in manufacturing. Automated
robots are putting our cars together and smart computers compute
new designs for making even smarter computers. Much of
American manufacturing has moved overseas where human labor
is cheaper. In transportation, it is the drone which will put an end
to the need for humans to transport many goods. Amazon.com and
other businesses have plans to use drones to deliver packages right
to ones door.
Drones help us inspect and oversee areas we would not
otherwise be able to reach. Farmers are finding great value in using
drones to scan their farmland for crop disease and other issues that
could otherwise take days to discover by foot. Drones are also
helpful with investigating dangerous locations. Take a drone with
you on a hike and Im sure youll have fun exploring the terrain!
They can even be programmed to find persons who get lost.

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While new smart technologies remove the need for humans to

be at the front lines, they may lead to a true artificial intelligence
(AI) that removes the need for humans altogether. It is reasonable
to assume that we will develop thinking machines of some kind in
the future and, by extension, machines that do everything for us
both for good and for ill.

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Economic growth seems to be a requirement, or at least a

strong catalyst, for the ability of a civilization to progress to greater
levels of technology. Building rockets and sending astronauts to
the moon isnt feasible with a planetary population of just
hundreds of persons, or even a few thousand. The efforts of
millions are required to support the endeavor and all of its
technologies, services, and support structures. Strong growth in
our population has occurred mainly because of technological
advancement, so the two components go hand in hand in enhancing
each other.
Assuming that population growth continues to accelerate, we
are going to have to expand into space sooner rather than later,
with or without the help of AI. If a town of population 10,000 has
a growth rate of just 2% per year, in about 40 years it will have
doubled in population, to 20,000. Lets take it to the next level by
considering the same population growth for another 1,000 years
suddenly the population is at a billion! No amount of city planning
using todays technology would be able to support a billion
residents in a single compact region, and this is calculating growth
over just 1,000 years, never mind expectations for thousands of
years or more.
The entire planet has about 321 million square kilometers of
arable land. If all land was used for planting food, we could
provide enough food for several trillion persons. Thats not really
realistic though, so lets scale it down to land in habitable climates,
in which case there would be enough land to feed well over ten
billion persons.

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If current rates of population growth continue to drive the

economy, just a few centuries from now, we would need to cover
every single land area with solar panels, leaving no room for any
other purpose. In essence, current rates of growth will far outstrip
available resources, of every kind, leaving only two options
available; curtail growth, and by extension our ability to colonize
space, or expand vertically in every way we possibly can.

Vertical Farming

If everyone on Earth lived as well as the residents in western

society, a couple of Earth-sized landmasses would be needed in
order to feed everyone. Fortunately, the most significant use of
land, growing food, has a unique new technology that may at least
partially solve our problems of land resource overuse: vertical
farming.
Vertical farming is as it sounds producing food on a farm that
is vertical, like a skyscraper. Instead of kilometers of farmlands, a
city of skyscrapers is built. Each floor of the buildings would be
designed to grow specific crops. The efficiency per hectare of food
produced could potentially far outweigh what is grown
traditionally.
The biggest catch with vertical farming is the difficulty in
producing trees that develop deep roots, such as for oranges,
cherries, nuts, etc. Currently, vertical farming has found the most
success in leafy vegetables, grains, spices, and other small types of
produce. Growing larger produce is only a matter of time, though,
as awareness of the concept catches on in economic and political
circles and the technology further develops.
Here is a graph of economic development and population
growth over the last ten thousand years to ram home the point of
how were quickly overcrowding the planet:

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For countless millennia before civilization took root, human

population remained less than a million globally, dipping on
occasion due to various natural disasters. Today, more are born
every year than were born in a hundred years prior to the 20th
century. In just the next 25 years, we will have used more energy
than in all of past civilizations combined. The rise of our
domination of the planet has broken our equilibrium with nature.
Even if the population were to remain flat, energy use will still be
growing because more of the population is becoming economically
wealthy. Millions of cars are being put on the roads and slices of
meat on our dinner plates.

BEYOND A SINGLE PLANET

As our civilization started extracting out of the ground easy-to-

acquire non-renewable resources in abundance, it increased our
dependence on ever more hard-to-reach sources. Whether or not
Earth continues to see population growth, as long as its inhabitants
continue to use resources in excess of their replenishment, there
will be a need to set forth to other worlds. Like the great European
explorers that crossed oceans to find other lands, brave explorers
of the future will venture into outer space to survive and prosper.
If we do not continue to build upon existing infrastructure in order
to get into space to discover new sources of energy, the complexity

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of achieving space travel may lose out to other priorities here on

Earth. Once a sufficiently sized colony is established off the planet
though, we lessen our dependence upon a single world and its
limited resources.

SimCity

Im a computer gamer, so I would like to provide a game-

related example to help paint a picture of how difficult it is to build
a minimum level of infrastructure in a new area.
SimCity is a computer game that simulates the building of a
city, and it relies on many real-world components that we find
throughout our cities. In the game, the goal is to build (and later
destroy, if you feel so inclined) a city on an empty plot of land.
The land may have mountains, grassy plains, patches of forest,
lakes, rivers, and various other types of terrain. You are provided
a couple of starting resources. It is up to you to pave roads, as well
as designate residential, commercial, and industrial zones for
managed growth. Once the population reaches a certain threshold,
police, fire, and other services are needed. Power of course is a
necessity as well, and it will only become more in demand as the
city expands.
In our simulation, we start alongside a river, placing an
unpaved road, a couple of industrial zones, and a polluting coal
power plant off in the distance. Cars fade in, people move to and
from the newly built buildings, and school bells are heard in the
residential areas. Fast forward the citys growth by a few decades
and you have the entire side of the river covered with
infrastructure. There is nowhere else to expand to, except across
the river to as yet untouched land. Fortunately, the other side
happens to contain even more valuable resources to gather. The
city is eager to expand there, but it needs the mayor (you) to build
a bridge across the river first.
The river proves a formidable challenge for the city, as the
bridge needs to be two kilometers long. Only recently have there
been materials available that are strong enough to build such a

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bridge, and only at great cost. The mayor and council agree to
move forward. Funds are reserved over five years with plans and
new technologies developed in order to get started. Sacrifices in
furthering the quality of life for the residents of the city are made
in order to fund the bridges construction. Construction time is
estimated at three years, but various delays, a result of project
mismanagement, mean that the bridge is finally completed after
ten years. Celebrations kick off throughout the city, and the bridge
is immediately crossed by those interested in purchasing cheap
plots of land on the other side.
Even though the city has achieved its goal of a bridge to
greener pastures, permanent settlement will remain a challenge.
After the bridge is completed, funds are further invested to build
roads for construction zones. Most of the construction is focused
on industrial zones, and the rich mountains in the distance are
tapped for rare ores. City funds are nearly drained at this point,
though, so building a second police station, school, hospital, and
other facilities has to wait. Even with increased taxes that stress
both sides of the river, it will be many years before the population
on the newly built side reaches the point where it can support itself.
Suddenly a massive earthquake hits the city proper. Not only
is power knocked out across the area, but a meltdown is in progress
at the nearby nuclear power plant. In a matter of hours, it ends up
going critical, spilling radiation across the area, killing a
significant percentage of the population. Unfortunately for the
settlement across the river, they did not have enough time to build
their own power plant beyond basic generators, and health care
services are still lacking. Once they realize what happened,
anarchy soon follows over fears of how they are going to survive.
In a matter of just a few days, the settlement is completely
destroyed and the primary city is reduced back to a state not much
larger than the settlement at its height.
The bridge symbolizes our venture into space. It took us
decades to reach the Moon, explore Mars, and analyze the
composition of the other solar system bodies. It will be many
centuries more before we can call a travel agency to book a

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vacation to Pluto, and that journey may still come with dangers.
Our SimCity scenario illustrates an obvious need to expand Earths
population beyond the confines of one planet, should Earth
experience a catastrophe from which it cannot recover. Simply
being in space would allow us to dodge most disaster scenarios
fantasized about in Hollywood movies, though it of course would
come with some new ones. Most importantly, space has ample
room for us to continue expanding.
Related to games and simulations like SimCity, there are many
others available. Here are just a few to check out:
Age of Empires
Age of Wonders
Anno Online
Cities Skylines
Cities XL
Endless Space
Galactic Civilizations
Masters of Orion
Rise of Nations
Sid Meiers: Civilization
SimCity, SimEarth, and The Sims
Sins of a Solar Empire
Spore
Stellaris
The Settlers Online

Capturing a Star Dyson Spheres

If humanity one day manages to colonize a significant portion

of the solar system, eventually we are going to need to tap the Sun
directly in order to continue to expand. How would you go about
directly collecting all, or most of, the energy of a star, might you
ask? Getting too close would spell doom for any sort of materials
you put in place to capture the energy, so any meddling with the
star itself is out of the question. We need something that works at
a distance, yet can still capture the stars radiant energy. This is

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where a Dyson Sphere comes in. Astronomer Freeman Dyson

advanced the idea of constructing a sphere around a star to harness
its energy. He suggested it would be a necessity for advanced
civilizations that have tapped all other resources in their planetary
system.
Plenty of variations of the Dyson sphere have appeared in
science fiction over the years. One exciting example was in Season
6, Episode 4, of Star Trek: The Next Generation. The episode was
called Relics. The spheres radius was roughly the size of Earths
orbit. The inside of the sphere had an atmosphere just like our
planets atmosphere, and on the surface countless lakes, oceans,
and rolling hills. The surface area of the Dyson sphere was
approximately 500 million times that of the Earth; the material
required to build the structure would far exceed the raw materials
available in the entire solar system by several orders of magnitude.
One cannot conceive of how many golf courses could be built upon
it though!
In 1964, the Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev came up
with the Kardashev scale to describe a civilizations stage of
technological progress based on the amount of energy it uses.3
Kardashevs scale had three levels (more levels and extensions
were added later by other scientists). Type I uses the available
resources on a planet, including the solar energy falling upon it.
Type II is capable of harnessing all of its local stars energy (only
a civilization of Type II or higher would be able to build a Dyson
sphere.) Type III civilizations are capable of harnessing all of the
energy in an entire galaxy.
Currently, human civilization would not find a place on the
Kardashev scale we are just not that advanced. Scientists that talk
about the Kardashev scale would call us a Type 0; in 1973 Carl
Sagan called us a Type 0.7. There do not appear to be too many
technological hurdles to eventually achieving Type I. Some
scientists believe we will one day become a Type II civilization,
but the amount of resources required to harness an entire stars
energy may take more raw materials than could ever be obtained.

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How likely is it that we would ever reach Type III or beyond?

A civilization that is able to convert the energy of a star or a galaxy
into a useable form must expel some of that energy as waste heat,
and we can easily pick up that signature with current telescopes.
So far we have not seen any galaxies giving off the expected
signatures that would indicate the presence of a civilization
noticeably altering their stars. The Kardashev scale beyond Type
II may thus be an unrealistic expectation for civilizations of any
kind.

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CHAPTER 5: A HOUSE OF CARDS

The Collapse of Civilization
Even with all our technology and the inventions that make
modern life so much easier than it once was, it takes just one big
natural disaster to wipe all that away and remind us that, here on
Earth, we're still at the mercy of nature. - Neil deGrasse Tyson

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Humanity has traveled a complex and unpredictable road to get

to its current technological era. The price that we have paid is our
present reliance on technology in an ever more global fashion. The
great kings of long gone civilizations have been replaced by
multinational corporations that are arguably more powerful than
national leaders. Purchasing food from the neighboring farms has
largely been replaced by trips to the supermarket to buy food that
has been shipped across the country, or even from around the
world.
Humanitys achievements have resulted in great feats of
engineering like traveling to the moon. Other achievements have
also resulted in great destruction, such as the nuclear reactor
accident at Chernobyl, which caused nearly a million people to die
of exposure to radiation. Countless times throughout history,
civilizations have faced destruction, but in the last hundred years
the pursuit of knowledge and technology has led us to the point
that the destruction has the potential to be globally catastrophic.
Technology is a double-edged sword for humanity.
In addition to its complexity, todays civilization differs from
those in the past in that its energy resources are dwindling. All of
the easily accessible resources that a technological society needs
are quickly being depleted. Even with technology that helps ease
the transition to utilizing diverse, newer sources of energy, many
resources will one day be permanently depleted (at least those on
Earth). This is a problem that no pre-technological civilization had
to the degree we see today. As early as just a few centuries ago, if
nearby drinking waters dried up, the population simply moved a
solution not suitable for millions of people today.
Over the course of just a few centuries, humanity managed to
invent the technologies that allow us to understand what causes
earthquakes, lightning, disease we have uncovered the nature of
the microscopic realm, and even have found ways to explore outer
space. As grand as it is to behold, our civilization could be
compared to a house of cards that may collapse as a result of any
number of significant global disruptions. Think of the top levels of
cards as the new upcoming technologies. The bottom row of cards

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are the raw energy resources we use to power the newer

technologies. If the bottom row were to lose enough cards all at
once, the entire house would collapse.
Civilization could be destroyed through numerous scenarios,
including the mismanagement of natural resources, running out of
non-renewable energy sources like coal and oil, natural disasters,
and even man-made pollution.1 In the event of a collapse, every
technology that preceded the discovery and development of a
future technology would need to be reacquired. If any of those
resources are permanently depleted, including manpower, the
house of cards we once had may be impossible to rebuild, at least
of any degree that it currently exhibits.

CIVILIZATION-ENDING SCENARIOS

To appreciate why humanity should try desperately to not fail

to continue its current pace of technological progress, we must
consider what cataclysms could affect our way of life. Once those
cataclysms are identified, we can then figure out how best to avoid
them, if that is possible at all.

Supervolcanoes

Next likely event: Now to tens of thousands of years

Source of event: Natural, terrestrial
Potential damage: Years of cold weather, extinctions
Speed of event: Hours to a couple of weeks

Lets start with the inevitable a supervolcano.2 There are

about two dozen supervolcanoes around the world that are,
thankfully, dormant. When supervolcanoes erupt, they can be
thousands of times more powerful than other volcanoes like Mount
St. Helens, Mauna Loa, or even the cataclysmic Krakatoa.
What determines when volcanoes erupt is how long pressure
has been building up under the rock that is holding back the gas
and magma. The longer the magma is contained and remains in a

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fluid or viscous form, the greater the potential for an eruption. Its
much like when pressure builds up between tectonic plates over
time and eventually release that energy as an earthquake.
Volcanoes are at least a bit easier to predict, as scientists can
estimate how much magma they contain, its viscosity, pressure,
and other important signs of an impending eruption.
Calderas are a cauldron-like indentation on a volcano or
supervolcano that has emptied its magma chamber in the recent
past. There is such a supervolcano caldera at Yellowstone National
Park. The last time it erupted, about a half million years ago, it
caused over a foot of ash to cover the Great Plains. If it were to
erupt today, entire cities would be destroyed for hundreds maybe
thousands of kilometers in all directions. A single eruption event
would effectively end the dominance of the United States in one
swift blow, and destroy the global food chain. Our planet would
instantly plunge into a mini ice age for decades.
As unbelievable as it sounds, the scenario is real and has
happened many times throughout the planets history. Thankfully,
the chances of any supervolcano erupting in the next few thousand
years are low, however statistically overdue, as in the case of
Yellowstone. There is also the chance that they will never erupt
again. On the other hand, a volcano could surprise us all and erupt
before you finish reading this book.
While eruptions like Mount St. Helens in 1980 was a major
event in our time, it was still tiny compared to even modest
supervolcano eruptions. Mount Tambo is a smaller supervolcano
that erupted in Indonesia in 1815. High concentrations of ash
continued to circulate in the atmosphere for years afterward. In
1816, just after the eruption, global temperatures dropped so low
that ice froze on lakes that had never frozen over before. The year
was known as the Year Without a Summer.3

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Asteroid/Comet Impacts

Next likely event: A few thousand years

Source of event: Natural, space
Potential damage: Destruction of the biosphere
Speed of event: Minutes to hours for the immediate
impact and fallout event

Asteroids and comets are collections of rock and debris with

many that come crashing down to Earth on a regular basis. Once
they enter our atmosphere, they are considered meteors. We know
about most of the larger objects that could cause Earth serious
harm, and none are set to hit the planet anytime soon. The bad news
is that there are still tens of thousands of smaller objects that could
cause enough damage to set us back technologically for decades.
Much like supervolcano eruptions, asteroid and comet collisions
are only a matter of time, although generally rare enough to not
lose sleep over.
There were two recent events of significance, both in Russia.
In 2013, a meteor about 20 meters in diameter and as heavy as the
Eiffel Tower came crashing through the atmosphere at about
60,000 kilometers per hour. It streaked across the sky over the city
of Chelyabinsk.4 The meteor, also known as a superbolide,
exploded high in the atmosphere with 20-30 times the energy as
that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The shockwave
caused widespread damage to buildings, and injured hundreds,
primarily from flying glass. There was no warning of the
impending disaster, because the meteor was coming from the same
direction as the Sun.
In 1908, a couple of thousand kilometers east of Chelyabinsk,
an asteroid with a diameter of 50 meters, or about the length of two
railroad cars, felled 2,000 square kilometers of trees and instantly
killed a thousand reindeer in the deep forests of Siberia. It is known
as the Tunguska Event. There was no way that we could have
detected the asteroid in advance, for the same reason that we could

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not detect Chelyabinsks, let alone try to stop its fiery descent.
Fortunately, it hit a completely isolated area.
There are thousands of such asteroids orbiting along different
paths in the solar system. Imagine the power of a rock the size of
a typical two-story house it could destroy an entire metropolitan
area in an instant. Putting it another way, the Tunguska asteroid
contained the energy of 1,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs, or the
strength of todays ICBMs of 10-20 megatons of TNT.

World War III

Next likely event: Uncertain

Source of event: Man-made, terrestrial
Potential damage: Collapse of countries, decades of
disruption to rebuild
Speed of event: Hours to years for the most severe
effects to occur

War is one of the few scenarios in which we have at least

partial control over the outcome, by virtue of how humans would
have started the event. Because there is some inherent control, and
because it is not likely to kill off all humans, as in the case of a
giant asteroid, scientists do not put war at the top of the list of
impending disasters. Interestingly, throughout history, large scale
wars have often been a consequence of a natural impediment.
As our civilization grows more complex and the chances of
human error and technical faults grow, the odds of an accidental
world war increase. Case in point: the only reason two nuclear
bombs did not go off in the 1961 Goldsboro B-52 bomber crash
over North Carolina was because of a faulty arming mechanism.5
Unfortunately, the possibility of destroying ourselves by mistake
will always exist, as long as technology exists and imperfect beings
are at the helm.
Despite the hazard that human error poses, global wars are less
likely to happen today than in the last century. Going to war over
territorial disputes or clashes of culture occurs less often thanks to

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economic prosperity, instant communications, as well as the

necessity to cooperate internationally. In the past, war was
sometimes waged simply because a single individual decided he
had had enough of his neighbors. Maturity and respect has lessened
the need to push the big red button and monger for war.
Should humans manage to establish colonies on the moon and
on Mars, our long-term survival as a species will become more
likely because we will no longer have to depend on the well-being
of our planet to survive. For instance, if a giant asteroid crashes
into Earth, some of humanity will survive if we have colonies
established elsewhere in space. It is true that we could still lose
badly in a Space War I. Such a scenario could end our trek into
space completely. The more areas of the solar system that we can
colonize though, the longer humanity will survive even the most
dire of disasters.

Pandemic Outbreak

Next likely event: Uncertain

Source of event: Natural, human-engineered virus
Potential damage: Complete collapse of civilization
Speed of event: Days to years

Moving along to another scenario just as terrifying as world

wars, pandemic outbreaks could wipe us out. We are biological
creatures at constant risk of attack from within. The human body
is an extremely complex machine composed of millions of parts,
and the fact is that these parts are vulnerable. Much of our
physiology we have yet to completely understand, including how
diseases infect the body and spread to other persons.
Epidemics happen all the time somewhere in the world.
Humanity recently experienced a terrible outbreak of Ebola in
Western Africa. The disease was utterly devastating in its effects.
Since the source was unknown for several months, it was much
more difficult to properly quarantine the population and warn
travelers of what to avoid to prevent further spread of the disease.

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The incubation period for the disease is up to 21 days or more, and

diagnostic tests require special equipment and highly trained staff
in much protective gear. The key to mitigating these natural
outbreaks is quickly finding the source, using aggressive sanitation
and isolation protocols of the affected population, and developing
a cure.
Normally we can anticipate when a viral outbreak may occur
and take action before it becomes a pandemic. Preventing an
outbreak is more difficult if it is man-made. Human-engineered
viruses can be delivered strategically to a population to result in
maximum spread. World War III might erupt if a nation or other
group was suspected of developing and disseminating a virus on
purpose. Fortunately, engineering a deadly virus is incredibly
complicated. Nevertheless, countries would be wise to take great
care that diseases do not cross their borders.
Regardless of where a disease comes from, pandemics can
appear with such speed that they overwhelm any system designed
to contain them. A virus can quickly mutate into a deadlier form,
or a normally harmless virus could be engineered to mutate into a
deadly pathogenic weapon. If these pathogens are stolen by
terrorists and dispersed into multiple areas of the population, an
outbreak could cripple a nation, or spread throughout the world.
If we zoom into the world of an ant, we can see that its health
can get similarly hijacked by an invading disease. Deep in the
Brazilian rainforest there is a species of ant that often comes under
the control of a fungus, the Ophiocordyceps camponoti-balzani.
The fungus infects the ant and seizes direct control of its brain.
Soon after infection, the fungus directs the ant to kill itself (after
the ant has moved the fungus to a new area more suitable for its
growth, of course). There is nothing the ant can do but experience
confusion and a sense of losing control of its faculties.

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Climate Change

Next likely event: In progress

Source of event: Natural, space, and man-made
Potential damage: Mass extinctions (in progress)
Speed of event: Long-term up to millions of years

Earth experiences changes in climate on a regular basis with

the seasonal swings we experience each year, and with less
frequent events like the great ice ages. Our planets slightly
elliptical orbit and its tilt toward the Sun both significantly affect
the climate; they change how much and where energy hits Earth
from the Sun, which results in how warm the planet gets.
There is also an effect called precession that has a long-term
influence on the climate. Just like with the spinning of a top on a
table, Earth also has a wobble. As a top loses spin, the wobble
becomes erratic and eventually the top itself will topple over (pun
intended, and also how the name top came about). As Earths
wobble becomes more severe, so will the swings in climate per
year become more severe.
Scientists have been able to observe what Earths atmosphere
was like up to 800,000 years ago from ice core samples taken in
Antarctica. Each years atmospheric ingredients are imprinted in
layers of ice. Ice core samples show that atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels have fluctuated between 170 and 300 parts per
million (ppmv). Methane, another even more powerful greenhouse
gas, was shown to fluctuate as well. Evidence suggests current
levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are higher than at any
point in the last 800,000 years.
All of these systems that can alter Earths climate have
potentially adverse effects on life, especially if the changes are
sudden. Some species do not survive drastic changes in climate,
even on a geological time scale. Earth is currently in the beginning
phases of another mass extinction event that is thought be
occurring far faster than any other extinction event in recent
history, thanks to human activities.6

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Every year there is a certain number of species that go extinct

as part of the natural order of life. Scientists track changes all
across the world, and with margins of error, they can estimate
when a species is near extinction by a lack of presence in its normal
habitat. Sometimes creatures thought to be extinct reappear, but
typically they do not. In a 2003 paper, Darryl I. MacKenzie,
wildlife research consultant, lays out precisely how detection of
species and confirmation of extinction rates can be done with great
accuracy. Tiger salamanders and northern spotted owls are two
examples he cites of species that are on the verge of extinction.
We can learn about historical mass extinction events by
studying fossils, ice core sediment samples, oxygen levels in the
atmosphere, and other forms of evidence. Since individual
methods of studying the past can be imperfect, it has been very
helpful that we have had multiple methods. The results from
combined studies generally indicate that in the last few centuries
extinction rates have been far higher up to a thousand times
higher, in fact than in the preceding millennia.
There have been many ice ages and other dramatic climate
swings throughout history, but life managed to survive and
continue to spread across the planet. Some scientists today predict
rather doomful scenarios resulting from the changes in Earths
climate over the past couple of centuries. According to the most
dire projections, if carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, the planet
could warm significantly enough to cause sea levels to rise by
several meters by the end of the century.7 This rise would be
enough to permanently flood coastal cities like New York and
Shanghai.
Regardless of how the climate changes in humanitys lifetime,
Earth will almost certainly recover from the more dire effects in a
few million years. Even if 95% of all species were to disappear
tomorrow, it wouldnt necessarily spell permanent disaster for life,
as it would be able to eventually evolve into a new set of distinct
species. New forms of life would take over the niches left by those
that came before. Life might go on as if humans never existed.

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Overpopulation and Resource Depletion

Next likely event: In progress, and a near certainty

Source of event: Natural, Man-made
Potential damage: Collapse of most of our civilization
Speed of event: Several centuries (since 1700s)

Civilization urgently needs to find a way to live on other

planets or bury its efforts and remain confined to Earth forever.
The urgency arises from two currently developing problems:
overpopulation and resource depletion. Overpopulation means that
too many persons are living in an area which cannot support them.
A trillion people could live on Earth if the planet had enough
resources to sustain them. As more individuals vie for increasingly
scarce resources, conflict and control over those resources is bound
to occur.
Everything from fossil fuels to rare metals are being depleted
at fantastic rates. Many of them will run out within a generation or
two because growing populations are using more of the resources.
The challenge is to extract sufficient quantities of resources in
space, and in tandem make use of more abundant substitutes here
on Earth in the meantime. If the technology can be developed fast
enough, we have a chance to not only relieve the problem of
overpopulation, but also resource depletion.
The current population growth rates thankfully have a silver
lining. Long-term population projections suggest that a leveling
off of growth will occur in the late 21st century. It is projected that
more women will enter the workforce and will consequently have
fewer offspring. Birth control will also become more available.8
Also, as economic status and general health increases for the
population, aging parents will not need as many children to take
care of them later in life.

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Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)

Next likely event: Within a hundred years

Source of event: Natural, space, nuclear weapons
Potential damage: Complete destruction of electronics
Speed of event: Instant, with permanent effects

An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is a short-duration burst of

electromagnetic energy. EMPs can be catastrophic when they
come into contact with vulnerable electronics.9 There are two main
sources of an EMP that can do great damage nuclear bombs and
the Sun. They differ slightly from each other, but if the pulse is
strong enough, the destructive effects (permanent shutdown) on
electronic and electrical systems will be similar regardless of the
source.
The long electrical transmission lines that crisscross the nation
provide an opportunity for an EMP to build a surge that travels
along the line to sensitive electronics at the end. When the pulse
travels through the atmosphere, then over electrical lines, it creates
a voltage surge, which goes into walls of buildings and meets our
electronics. No explosion occurs, just an instant silent shutdown of
all electrical and electronic devices. (Transformers along the
electrical grid, however, would overload and could explode.) Even
battery-powered items like flashlights, as well as electronics that
are not plugged in, would become inoperative.
One way to prevent the destruction of equipment is to have it
hardened a military term meaning protected against attack.
Hardening of equipment or structures includes adding metal,
concrete, or other materials that redirect the EMPs energy around
the object, preventing the energy from entering the internal area.
For example, lightning rods harden all major skyscrapers. When a
nearby lightning strike occurs, it will be attracted to the rod. The
rod is connected to a wire that feeds into the ground at the bottom
of the tower. The energy from the lightning strike will be
channeled along this wire and dissipate into the ground, instead of
into sensitive electronics within the building. The electrical grid

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can be hardened by using more fuses that stop an EMP from

progressing too far along wires.
Another way to protect equipment is to store it in what is called
a Faraday cage. Faraday cages are containers designed specifically
to protect the items kept within from electrical disturbances. The
first Faraday cage was created in 1836 by Michael Faraday,
English scientist. The cage contains metal that causes an EMP, or
any sort of electromagnetic radiation, to disperse around the cages
exterior.
The world got a direct taste of the power of an EMP when the
United States and Russia were testing nuclear bombs in the 1960s.
During the Starfish Prime nuclear tests in the Pacific Ocean in
1962, scientists were taken by surprise when electrical equipment
was damaged hundreds of kilometers from the blast area. Similar
effects were seen in other tests, even with certain non-explosive
devices emitting an EMP. The tests clearly showed that an EMP
has global destructive potential far above and beyond the
immediate effects of the bomb blast itself.
The destruction caused by an EMP would be even more
widespread if it came from the Sun. There are major flares being
discharged from all across the Suns surface on a regular basis, but
every few hundred years a massive one is directed toward Earth.
The most recent flare of significance resulted in the Carrington
Event back in 1859. The EMP was strong enough to cause
telegraph operators to suffer burn injuries as they handled
overloaded wires. The EMP came from an X45-class solar flare,
one of the most powerful ever recorded.
If an EMP from the Sun of the same scale as the Carrington
Event were to hit today, it is hard to imagine the destruction that
would occur. In 1859, very little was powered with electricity.
They still used gas lighting it would take another 20 years before
the lightbulb became of practical use. Today, we are utterly
dependent on electronics for almost every facet of life, from
buying food to filling our gas tanks, from staying in touch with
those we love to getting across country to see them. Radios, cars,
and everything else we depend on for communication and

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transportation would be at risk of failure. A solar EMP could cause

failure on a global scale that very well could be permanent. There
is no other known event that would cause our way of life to
collapse so completely, and yet leave most physical items
seemingly untouched.
In the next few decades, it is the nuclear bomb that is the most
likely source of a EMP strong enough to cause catastrophic
damage. Since the Cold War, there have been thousands of nuclear
weapons in Russia and the United States collecting dust in bunkers.
Many could be modified to enhance their EMP effects upon being
detonated. An EMP disaster might occur if a rogue nation or other
madmen were able to launch a modified warhead high enough into
the atmosphere over a country.

Nuclear Holocaust

Next likely event: Uncertain

Source of event: Man-made, terrestrial
Potential damage: Collapse of civilization, radiation
hazards for thousands of years
Speed of event: Hours to weeks for the most
devastating effects to occur

There are few scenarios as horrifying as an all-out nuclear war,

if only for the fact that we would have brought utter ruin on
ourselves. The projected effects on humanity and almost
everything on the planet are so dark and gruesome that they are
difficult to comprehend.
Nuclear bombs come in a range of sizes, shapes, and yields
(explosive power).10 They can be fitted onto missiles that can
travel to countries on the other side of the world within a matter of
minutes, launched undersea from large missile silos on
submarines, or high in the sky from bombers launched from fixed
land bases. There are enough nuclear weapons about 14,800 as
of October 2015 between the United States and Russia alone to
completely destroy all of the worlds cities several times over.

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The very first nuclear bomb exploded on July 16, 1945 at the
Trinity test site in the Jornada del Muerto desert in New Mexico at
a top secret army base. The bomb, designed by a team led by J.
Robert Oppenheimer, had a yield of 20 kilotons of TNT, or about
the explosive strength to vaporize everything within a few
kilometers. The heat blast was felt as far as 160 kilometers away,
and Oppenheimers team reported it as feeling as hot as an oven.
Oppenheimer described the explosion as terrifying.
Oppenheimer is well known for quoting a Hindu scripture
passage: Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.
Just a few weeks later, two nuclear bombs were dropped on the
Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, effectively bringing
World War II to an end. The Hiroshima bomb had a blast yield
equivalent to about 16 kilotons of TNT, less than the Trinity test
itself. It had the codename Little Boy, it was a gun-type of
atomic bomb that used uranium-235, and it killed more than
100,000 persons. The Nagasaki bomb was slightly more powerful,
equivalent to about 21 kilotons of TNT. It had the codename Fat
Man and it was an implosion-type bomb that used plutonium.
There were fewer casualties in Nagasaki because much of the city
was shielded by mountains, but tens of thousands still lost their
lives in the blast.
Russia created the largest nuclear bomb ever, called the Tsar
Bomba. It had a blast equivalent of 50 megatons of TNT, which
released 1,000 times more energy than the Hiroshima and
Nagasaki bombs put together. The designers originally had wanted
to make it 100 megatons, but it would have caused significantly
more fallout, plus the plane delivering the bomb would not have
been able to escape the blast radius in time.
In 1961, the Russians detonated the Tsar Bomba over Novaya
Zemlya, an island chain north of the Russian mainland. The
mushroom cloud rose for several kilometers above the ground
before flattening out. More than 200 nuclear test bombs have been
detonated at Novaya Zemlya, producing explosive energy
equivalent to 265 megatons of TNT, roughly 130 times the energy
of all of the explosives used in World War II combined.

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The damage that 50 megatons of TNT could do to a city is

astounding; this yield would be enough to completely vaporize
everything within a radius of 60 kilometers. It would cause third-
degree burns 90 kilometers away. New York City is about 25
kilometers in radius. If the Tsar Bomba were dropped over
Manhattan, the blast would obliterate everything in the entire city
and for kilometers beyond. The heat from the blast would be felt
more than 250 kilometers away. The flash of the blast would cause
instant blindness in millions of people. Even if you were hundreds
of kilometers away, if you were looking at the blast site at the time
of detonation, you could go blind. The observers of the Trinity Test
wore special goggles that shielded their eyes from the intense
brightness.
While the power of a nuclear weapon to instantly obliterate is
chilling to realize, the radiation fallout is, in my opinion, the most
damning part. Radiation is completely silent and invisible, and
avoiding it is close to impossible (unless youre already in a shelter
hardened for radiation when the blast strikes). If a nuclear bomb
were to go off near the ground, it would kick up radiation-soaked
soil and debris this material is called fallout. That cloud of
material could travel on winds for hundreds possibly thousands
of kilometers in whatever direction the winds happened to be
moving at the time. The fallout is more harmful to life than the
radiation released by the bomb into the atmosphere because the
fallout remains in the environment for hundreds, if not thousands,
of years.
If you were outdoors near the blast, and werent killed by the
blast itself, radiation could cause you to die within hours.
Radiation causes damage to DNA and subsequent cellular
degradation. Imagine tiny laser pulses poking holes in every cell
of your body. Blisters may appear on the skin. The immune system
starts to malfunction, so if death hasnt already occurred, disease
would quickly set in to finish the job. As time goes on, deformity
of the extremities results, as well as blindness, hair loss, and, if you
survived for years, severe forms of cancer would become a
significant possibility.

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If a global nuclear exchange occurred, the entire world would

be a minefield of radiation hazards that humanity would have to
carefully traverse for thousands of years. Water sources and
farmlands would be poisoned by the radiation. Nuclear winter
would ensue, with global temperatures dropping for years, killing
off crops that managed to survive the initial radiation hazards.
Let us hope that the nuclear weapons used to end World War
II are the last we ever do use, and that our civilization never falls
from the pure folly of self-destruction.

Other Catastrophic Events

Most of the catastrophes in this chapter are Earth-based. For

other space-based scenarios, there are Gamma Ray Bursts and
Supernova. Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) are powerful, energetic,
pointed blasts that come from the death of massive stars.
Supernova are similar but they are not pointed they blast out
energy in all directions. Both typically occur in a galaxy only every
few centuries or so. Gamma Ray Bursts and Supernova are
extremely unlikely to affect Earth in the next few hundred
thousand years.
Humans are capable of preventing many of these catastrophes
from occurring more than ever before, yet the general population
doesnt really rally around trying to do so. Instead of holding a
long-term view of existence, we focus our attention on the
immediate days activities with only mild interest in the news of
yet another deathly event around the globe. Our nights are restful,
and when they are not, it is likely not because the Sun is going to
burn up Earth in a billion years, or that there might be a
supervolcano going off at some point.

THE FALL OF CIVILIZATION

What would the aftermath of an apocalyptic event look like?

For the first couple of days there would be mass confusion as
everyone tried to figure out what had happened. Hope would be

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high that someone in authority would figure out how to bring

things back to normal. Hope, however, would not last long. Soon
it would become clear that calamity without precedent had befallen
global civilization. People would wonder if they had been attacked
by another nation, or by terrorists fewer people would suspect
the natural sources. Depending on the extent of the damage, what
caused the event might never be known.
It wouldnt be long before people would loot, starting with
stores, and continuing with nearby homes. After a week of small
groups of the bravest people attempting to restore order, they
would realize that no one was coming to rescue them. Local
officials might start by dispersing resources, but then many would
eventually abandon their efforts in an attempt to escape the cities
with their families. Gangs would form and assume control over
neighborhoods. Potable water would be scarce. Fires would burn
unchecked. A can of beans would become the new gold. After just
a few weeks, the fear of starvation would bring about an ugly new
threat - the possibility of cannibalism.
Mass death would begin to occur in phases, starting with the
helpless in hospitals, prisons, and other restricted care needs.
Disease would set in from lack of medicine and malnutrition.
Inability to bury all of the dead would spread more disease. A third
of the population could die off in just a few months, and ultimately
a majority of the population could expire.
Civilization would essentially be thrown back to the Stone Age
within a year.
Putting the scale of disasters into perspective, take the victims
of hurricane Katrina. They experienced chaos and fear as soon as
the hurricane cut power to the city and the flooding began, but
unlike after an EMP, they had radios, phones and other portable
devices to help them communicate with emergency services. They
also had the worlds resources available, yet weeks still went by
before they got access to clean water. Even with fully empowered
search and rescue teams, hundreds still died.

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REBUILDING THE ENGINE OF CIVILIZATION

"We cant just reuse the old designs," John Balboni, an

engineer at the NASA Ames Research Center, said in an interview
with The Verge online magazine on Dec. 5, 2014.
Balboni was looking to recreate and hopefully enhance the
Apollo heat shield, a layer of material on the Apollo spacecraft that
protected the craft from intense heat during reentry into Earths
atmosphere. He discussed several ideas with other scientists in
2006. The engineers that designed the original heat shield back in
the 1960s left detailed information, but most of these engineers
were no longer alive in 2006 to explain the details. Balbonis team
identified several areas of confusion that led them to wonder if they
would ever be able to reverse engineer the old heat shield designs.
"Its like trying to make a cake from your grandmothers
recipe. She could leave you all the ingredients and all steps, but
youre not going to make a cake as good as your grandmother
made," Balboni explained.
Balboni made a powerful statement that says a lot about what
it takes to develop complicated technologies. Many of the
technologies developed at NASA will likely take many years of
work with hundreds of scientists involved, not to mention millions
or even billions of dollars of funds. Like the story in the last
chapter about Joshuas attempt to reach the moon, we are not going
to build spacecraft with one or two individuals loitering around the
village wishing well and just thinking really hard about the
problem.

The Recovery Stage

Even the worst catastrophes leave survivors to contemplate the

future that awaits them. A few years after an EMP event, order
would be restored in pockets around the world. The TV show
Revolution depicts what life would be like in the years after an
apocalypse. The stability of the great nations would be no more,
and after years of anarchy, unstable despotism would take its place.

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Survivors might attempt to rebuild society and reconstruct the lost

technologies... it just might take hundreds or even thousands of
years to do so.
Technologies would first be redeveloped for growing food,
building shelters, and setting up a system of trade and government.
Once a civilization restores order, progress can accelerate. Design
manuals would be found in the rubble of the old cities, original
creators might still be alive to advise the new generation, and many
machines would be reverse engineered. Perhaps even new and
better machines that were not thought of before would be crafted.
Eventually the despotism would give way to more civil
governments.
Along with loss of life, technology and resources, lack of
interest in rebuilding civilization might be a reality for most
survivors of an apocalyptic event. Few are going to be concerned
with this long-term goal of rebuilding after losing a way of life that
has little hope in ever seeing a return in their lifetime. After all, it
is easier to destroy than to build. Indeed, many in todays already
advanced society have reasons to exist other than a direct intent to
build a better future for all of mankind.

OUR UNDETERMINED FUTURE

If we wish to not stumble back into a new dark age, we must

do everything humanly possible to avoid the fall of civilization. On
a global scale, this means securing our aging power grids from
natural disaster or attack, stockpiling key resources such as food,
medicine, and water in protected shelters in all major cities, and
hardening more military and civilian equipment such as radios,
vehicles, and generators. Countries also need to work together to
prevent a global catastrophe.
If we fail now to reach outer space and tap the plentiful
resources there, humanity may be doomed to a limited existence
on Earth, reduced to a patchwork of wandering groups in a hostile
and energy-starved environment. Subsequently, we may plateau at
a stage of development much more primitive than our current one.

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Civilization could be set so far back that we would never be able

to travel into outer space again. Children in the new world would
read about the old ideals through tattered history books, flipping
past images of great cities and rocket ships from what was once a
grand civilization largely devoid of the problems they now faced.
Idiocracy (2006) is a satirical science fiction comedy movie set
in a dystopian future 500 years from present day. All of the modern
conveniences are exaggerated, such as microwave meals, easy
access to goods, and a sense of individual freedom and superiority.
Society is seen to have long ago reached its peak of intellectual
greatness, now instead being pictured as a dumb society reliant on
the system for literally every facet of life. Intellectualism is viewed
as a threat, and technological progress has screeched to a halt.
While life continues on, it is evident that eventually the species
itself is destined to having a reduced intelligence, progressing
within a handful of generations to a stage not much smarter than
the great apes themselves.
Whether it's an immediate disaster, or the slow decline of our
intellectual capacity (intellectual atrophy as I like to call it), I
personally do not want to ever find myself in that kind of
crumbling world. What a tragedy it would be if civilization never
recovered from a natural disaster or, worse, a disaster of our own
making.
One thing is certain if we ever had to rebuild--for better or
worse, the way of life for future generations would never be as it
was for those who lost so much the first time around.

The Cosmos as Our Savior

Humanity is currently fighting to stay afloat on the great

cosmic barge that is the Earth. Achieving a permanent space
presence would present a real jackpot: the resources we can
harness from Near Earth Objects (NEOs) like asteroids and the
moon. The process of colonizing space can start as a business
venture of mining asteroids. Even a medium-sized asteroid
contains plenty of water that can be broken down into hydrogen

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for fuel and oxygen for air, not to mention the trillions of dollars
worth of rare metals. Eventually colonies could be established on
Earths moon, and thereafter on the moons of the outer gas giants.
All is conceivable with todays great thinkers working on getting
us to this point. Expanding our civilizations presence in the solar
system or maybe even throughout the galaxy will not be easy
or quick, just as it wasnt for the first explorers who crossed the
Atlantic Ocean. The exciting part is that the possibilities are
endless, just extremely challenging to get started.
While sentient creatures colonizing space may be a temporary
blip in the evolution of the Universe, humanity has proven that it
can be accomplished at least once. We should refuse to stall our
trek to the stars when we haven't even left the proverbial driveway.
Exploring the rest of our cosmic suburbia may prove to reveal only
empty houses, but it's worth every effort because knowledge of the
cosmos is empowering to humanity. As far as can be ascertained,
we embody the Universe's best and perhaps only opportunity of
leaving a legacy worthy of its existence.
Carl Sagans saying We are a way for the cosmos to know
itself could be applied locally in the sense of We are a way for
Earth to save itself. We might one day learn how to prevent
natural disasters from occurring. We might also one day learn how
to push our planet into an orbit further from the Sun in order to
escape the Suns increasing heat. Moving the orbit of the planet
may sound extreme, but it should be viewed as a very large
engineering challenge to meet and not as an impossibility.
The International Space Station (ISS) is one of many important
stepping stones to reaching other locations in the solar system and
beyond. All of the other planets and their orbiting moons will
provide valuable construction real estate, as well as raw resources,
to help encourage humanity to reach even further. These worlds
will allow us to run experiments which would be impossible on
Earth. Many of those experiments will be critical to ensuring the
survival of future generations of space explorers that will not have
the luxury of returning to Earth.

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For instance, it is extremely costly to build a telescope and

launch it into space. Billions of dollars and years of preparation at
a minimum is typically necessary, and there is still great risk of it
blowing to smithereens upon launch. If permanent colonies were
established in space, telescopes could be built directly there, and
be far larger and more effective than anything we could ever
launch from Earth. Telescopes could be so massive, in fact, that
we could easily peer at the atmospheres of millions of other worlds
to see if they have life upon them.
At the very least, space will be impossible to overcrowd. There
are enough rocky surface areas in the inner solar system alone to
theoretically support trillions of humans and animals, not to
mention countless locations for space stations.
If the public views space travel as not worth the risks, then we
need to do better to educate the public. Human civilizations time
to colonize space is now, for we may not get a second chance. As
we will explore in following chapters, this might be equally true
for every budding civilization in the Universe. One shot to colonize
space is perhaps all that anyone ever gets.

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CHAPTER 6: EXPLORING THE

COSMOS
I think it would be a very rash presumption to think that
nowhere else in the cosmos has nature repeated the strange
experiment which she has performed on Earth.
Harlow Shapley

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Our latest theories about the origin of the Universe suggest

that, in the beginning, all of its energy was crammed into what is
known as a singularity.1 Then suddenly everything, including time,
sprang into existence in a Big Bang. The Universe burst from
the womb of nothingness for all of its future astronomers to detect.
This initial birth period of the Universe is known as the Planck
Epoch, and lasted about 1043 seconds, or a tiny, tiny fraction of a
second.2
Just as the Universe came into existence, the Planck era ended
and another phase of expansion called cosmic inflation
ballooned the Universe into a much larger size. At about 1036
seconds, the Universe slowed its expansion as it began to cool.
While cool by comparison to Planck era temperatures, the
Universe was still at millions of degrees Celsius, and an even
hotter place than the core of our Sun. At this time the four
fundamental forces of nature the strong and weak nuclear forces,
electromagnetism, and gravity separated out and began to act as
they do today.
Microseconds later, as the Universe continued its relentless
expansion and cooling phase, protons, electrons, and neutrons
formed. The most fundamental building blocks of all matter now
existed.
After these first few chaotic microseconds of expansion, the
Universe remained in a hot and dense state for the next 300,000
years. Unfortunately, there is no way to know what the Universe
would have looked like to the human eye before this time.
Everything was still so hot and dense, light itself as we can see it
today had not yet come into existence. The Universe would have
looked as opaque as a black hole to an outside observer. All of
existence previous to about the 300,000-year mark is hidden from
our telescopes.
At this young age of 300,000 years, elements heavier than
helium could not be created. None of the elements that make up
our bodies existed yet; in order for these elements to come into
being, the hot and energetic cores of stars would be needed to
initiate a fusion reaction that could fuse together heavier elements.

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The first generation of stars formed a few million years after the
birth of the Universe. They lived short lives of only a few million
years, at most. When they died, they exploded, seeding nearby
space with heavier elements, and providing the ingredients for the
very first planets to form.

THE CITIES OF THE UNIVERSE GALAXIES

A couple of hundred million years after the first stars formed,

an intense bout of new star formation in clusters began to occur,
forming the first galaxies. Galaxies can be thought of as the
Universes cities that drive the potential for life and civilization to
blossom. Each galaxy contains anywhere from billions to trillions
of stars, as well as countless gas and dust clouds. Many of these
clouds are still in the process of forming new planetary systems.
While no two galaxies are identical, there are few enough
differences to classify them into a handy set of categories.3

Spiral Galaxies Young and Beautiful

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Spiral galaxies are host to a large amount of stars, numbering

into the hundreds of billions for the largest. They are shaped by
gravity into a flat disc of stars circling around a core. This galactic
core contains a dense region of stars with the very center harboring
a supermassive black hole. Extending out from the center are the
arms of the galaxy, giving the galaxy its spiral shape. Currently,
20% of galaxies are spirals. Yet because they are so bright, 70% of
the galaxies visible from Earth are spirals.
The spiral shape of these galaxies is a bit deceiving. One might
think that it is caused by the rotation of the galaxy itself, but that
is not the case. All of the stars in a spiral galaxy revolve around the
center in a slightly elliptical pattern. This pattern causes
gravitational forces to push together gas and dust in certain areas,
igniting vigorous new star formation, which appear as the spiral
arms. The largest of the new stars are very bright, so the arms are
rather spectacular when viewing a galaxy through the lens of a
telescope.
Spiral galaxies also often have groups of stars that are so far
away from the core, they tend to follow much more chaotic orbits
than the stars in the spiral arms. The farther out from the central
pull of gravity, the less pull there is on a star to rotate around the
core in an orderly orbit.
The Milky Way galaxy is one of these larger spiral galaxies,
but with an added twist: it also has a bar formation of stars that
looks like a condensed straight line of these stars running through
the galaxys center. If we could view the galaxy from outside of
itself, we would see something like the image above. Not all spiral
galaxies have this bar feature, and it was once thought that ours
was without it as well.
The Milky Way formed more than 13 billion years ago in the
middle of a cluster of galaxies called The Local Group. Two thirds
of the way through the galaxys life, our solar system was born
from a collapsing cloud of gas and dust. Ever since then, the Milky
Way has carried the solar system in orbit around the center, called
the galactic core. The galaxy continues to produce stars; currently

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the rate of star production is at about seven solar masses per year,
which means that seven times the mass of the Sun is produced.

Elliptical Galaxies The Milky Ways Future

While spiral galaxies have spectacular structures, elliptical

galaxies have structures that are rather unexciting to the eye.
Ellipticals have no distinct pattern and are nearly featureless. They
range in shape from almost spherical to somewhat flat. Their range
in size is more diverse than other types of galaxies; from puny little
ones with just a few million stars, to truly massive ones with up to
several times the star count of the Milky Way, numbering into the
tens of trillions.
Elliptical galaxies currently make up about 10-15% of all
galaxies. Elliptical galaxies were not a dominant feature of the
early Universe their formation came later. Many of them are the
result of dozens of smaller galaxies merging, probably including a
few spirals. As the Universe ages, the percentage of elliptical
galaxies will steadily increase.
Mergers have occurred several times with the Milky Way
already, when dwarf galaxies got trapped in its gravitational pull.
Our galaxy has a nemesis on its doorstep, though. Andromeda is
one of the few galaxies not moving away from our own. In fact,
its fast approaching on a direct collision course at about 402,000
kilometers per hour. Fortunately, even at this frantic speed, it will
still take about four billion years for it to collide with the Milky

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Way. After another few billion years, these two spiral galaxies will
merge to form one massive elliptical galaxy.

Irregular and S0 Galaxies The Unwanted Offspring

When the Milky Way collides with Andromeda, both our

galaxies will undergo extreme changes that will tear stars from
their galactic orbits, possibly flinging them far out into space for a
time before gravity takes hold and pulls them back. These stars
may keep going if gravity loses the tug of war. As you can imagine,
changing from two spiral galaxies to one elliptical is going to be a
chaotic process. Interestingly, merging galaxies almost never
cause individual stars to collide with each other, owing to the vast
distances involved. Stargazers on worlds in such an event may
never know their home galaxy had merged with another.
Two other less common galaxy types may form as a by-product
of the merger: S0 and irregulars. S0 is an intermediate type; its
shape is not quite like either an elliptical or spiral, but a contorted
version of both of them. S0s contain little gas and dust, have few
stars, and are smaller and less bright than most other galaxies.
Eventually an S0s shape will become more elliptical or spiral as
the stars find a gravitational balance with each other. The merger

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between Andromeda and our galaxy may result in S0 galaxies

forming around the newly merged main galaxy.
Then there are irregular galaxies, which, as the name suggests,
have little to no consistent structure. Irregulars have bright regions
full of hydrogen that are in the process of forming new stars,
sticking out from the rest of the galaxy like a lighthouse on a
stormy coastline. Eventually, irregulars will also gain a more
defined elliptical or spiral shape.

STARS LIFES PARENTS

Carl Sagan once said, We are made of star stuff.

This statement is quite literally true. The Universe is composed

of roughly 75% hydrogen and 25% helium everything else is in
a sliver of a percent. Stars fuse hundreds of millions of tons of
hydrogen per second into helium. As a star ages and uses up its
hydrogen fuel, the core of the star contracts in order to maintain
the fusion process. The more condensed and now hotter core of the
star allows helium to fuse into heavier elements, including carbon
and the other elements of which our bodies are composed.
When we detect a stars composition, we are trying to
determine its metallicity (astronomers call all elements heavier
than hydrogen and helium metals). When the Milky Way first
formed, there were no elements heavier than hydrogen and helium.
As supermassive stars exploded, they released heavier elements
generated in their cores, seeding the galaxy with them. Future
generations of stars contained more and more of these heavier
elements. Late generation stars with a high metallicity have a
greater chance of hosting planets, as planets themselves require
metals in order to form.
Stars of a wide variety of sizes and colors dot the Universe,
including extremely massive ones that are larger than our entire
solar system. These exceedingly immense stars will only last a few
million years, which is far too short a time for life to evolve on an
orbiting planet, let alone for life on any planet to build a

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civilization. Many of the first stars in the Universe were thought to

be these massive giants, owing to the higher density of gas clouds
during galactic birth.
Our Sun is a typical G-class type star that converts hydrogen
into helium, along with a few heavier trace elements. For stars the
size of our Sun or smaller, carbon is about the heaviest element
that is ever produced.
For larger stars, especially the supermassive ones on the order
of eight times or more of the Suns mass, like Betelgeuse, its a
wildly different story. Elements as heavy as iron can fuse, at least
for a brief period of time. Iron literally saps energy from the stars
fusion process and never releases it. This prevents the star's energy
from pushing outward, allowing the constant inward pull of gravity
to overtake. With less energy to continue pushing outward, the star
collapses in on itself. As the star begins to shrink, each element
separates from the others and settles into a shell shape around the
core. First there is hydrogen fusing to form helium, and then
lithium, beryllium, boron, carbon, and so on, in layers like that of
an onion.
The collapse process lasts just a few minutes before the star
becomes unstable and explodes as a supernova in one of the most
energetic events since the Big Bang itself. The explosion is so
powerful, that in that instant elements fuse to other elements to
create heavier ones. Iron fuses into cobalt, nickel, and continues
all the way down the periodic table to about element 98,
Californium. After that, even the might of a supernova is not
enough to create heavier elements those can only be produced in
a lab.
As the supernova explosion progresses, the dying stars outer
layers and much of its core are torn apart and sent hurtling into
deep space, peppering the galaxy with the gold on your necklace
and the copper in your electronics.

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The Birth of a Planetary System

In order for comets, asteroids, planets, and every other object

in a planetary system to exist, heavier elements than helium are
required. Since the early Universe was only composed of hydrogen
and helium (and traces of lithium), the very first generation of stars
had no rocky planets around them. Ill call these naked stars.
Naked stars are still being born in the Milky Way today, but at
a far lower rate than during the birth of the galaxy. This is mainly
because most of the gas and dust clouds available to form new stars
have already been seeded with heavier elements. As the remnants
of stellar explosions like supernovae mix with nearby gas clouds,
it will cause the clouds to start collapsing, eventually forming a
new planetary system.
These new stars will now contain heavier elements, thanks to
the neighboring supernovae. As more supernovae occur, additional
heavier elements will pepper nearby gas clouds. At least two other
generations of more massive stars had to die before a star like our
Sun could be born. It took hundreds of millions of years before
metal-rich stars and planetary systems like we see today with our
own solar system could exist.

STAR CLASSIFICATIONS LIFES SWEET SPOT

Like galaxies, stars are classified based on their properties,

including size, temperature (and thus color), and how they use up
their nuclear fuel. About 90% of all stars you see in the night sky
are part of whats called the main sequence. Stars in other
sequences are either older supermassive stars like red giants, small
white dwarfs that have already reached the end of their lives, or
neutron stars that are superdense remnants of stars that blew up in
a massive supernova.
We want to focus on the stars that are of a stable age with
plenty of energy left in them, able to support a planet with life and
civilization. The main sequence stars are young adults to older
adults these stars are in the prime of life. Designations of stars in

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the main sequence range from O, B, A, F, G, K, and M. The Os are

the largest and hottest stars, with the comparatively tiny M-dwarfs
being the coolest.
Our Sun is squarely within the G-type. Its still a large star
compared to tiny M-dwarfs (which are part of the M-type
subcategory of stars), but it doesnt come close to the truly gigantic
O-type, which can be as wide as our solar system!

O-, B-, and A-Class Stars Hot and Heavy

The O-, B-, and A-type stars are lumped together here because
the chances that any orbiting planets will be habitable for long
enough to evolve complex intelligent creatures is close to zero for
all three of these types.
O-type is hotter than 30,000 Kelvin, while B-type is between
10,000-30,000K. Type-A broils between 7,500-10,000K. The
hotter the star is, the bluer it is. These three classes also have the
greatest mass and brightness of all main sequence stars.
A-types appear white to bluish-white to the naked eye and have
a mass about 1.5 to 3 times that of the Sun. Examples include the
famous Vega star, mentioned in the movie Contact.
While all stars have zones where simple life forms could
theoretically survive, and probably have the planets on which life
can form, A-type stars live less than a billion years before blowing
up. A billion years is only enough time for a planets crust to cool
and form a stable layer of liquid water on its surface. Thus A-type
stars lifespans are too short for any planet orbiting them to become
habitable. The chances of habitability are even worse around the
hotter B and O type stars. Fortunately for the chances of life
amongst the totality of stars out there, O-, B- and A-type comprise
only about 1% of all stars.
While these giants are not good candidates for the development
of complex life around them, they are important for generating
supernovae. As explained above, these cataclysmic events are the
heavy lifters that create and disperse important elements needed
for the chemistry of life.

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F-Type Stars On the Edge

F-type stars are classified as yellow-white dwarfs; they are

hotter than our Sun, but not as hot as O-, B-, or A-types. F-types
are on the edge of being able to support life. Their lifetimes are
short only about 2-4 billion years, depending on their mass. It is
not entirely out of the question that life could evolve on a planet
orbiting an F-type star, but that life would need to evolve quickly,
before the star changes too much to destabilize an orbiting planets
biosphere.
On Earth, it took at least two billion years for life to get to just
the multicellular stage. Complex animal life, including the
development of the central nervous system, took yet another
couple of billion years. It might be that as soon as complex life is
forming on planets orbiting F-type stars, the stars are already
entering a late stage of development, and heating up so quickly that
they end up snuffing out any budding life on their planets.

G- and K-Type Stars The Sweet Spot

We now get to the most promising life-supporting candidates

with G- and K-types. Both are smaller, cooler, relatively dimmer,
and longer-lived than the hotter types of stars, giving life a longer
period of time to evolve into something interesting. G- and K-type
comprise only about 10% of all stars in the Milky Way though.
They nonetheless still number in the billions.
While our Sun is commonly known as a yellow dwarf when
viewed from Earth, this is a misnomer, as it is actually white when
viewed from the undistorted perspective of space. The appearance
of it being yellow to our eyes is due to the atmosphere distorting
the incoming light. Even within the whole range of G-types,
theres only a hint of yellow for slightly less massive stars than our
own Sun.
The lifetime of a star similar to the Sun is going to be about ten
billion years. Although this is much longer than the relatively brief
two billion years of F-type stars, it still doesnt really provide a lot

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of wiggle room for life to evolve, at least when compared to the

coolest of stars. Regardless, ten billion is obviously still enough
time for a civilization to form and have a good chance to explore
the Universe, as here we are!
The size and lifetime of a star also has a strong correlation to
its brightness. Because G- and K-type stars are at the upper size
threshold to support complex life, any inhabited planets in orbit
will likely have skies not significantly brighter than our own. The
average habitable world may actually have considerably dimmer
skies, as we take into account K- and M-type stars.
K-type stars are just a bit cooler and dimmer than our own Sun.
They have one of the biggest benefits for life to evolve they last
longer than G-types. K-types will last at least ten to twenty billion
years. Its plenty of time for life to evolve, be destroyed and evolve
again a few times over definitely enough time to develop a
civilization that can reach for the stars.
As a bonus, the habitability zone of K-types would not shift as
rapidly as the hotter stars, thanks to how their energy output
increases much more slowly as they age much more slowly.
K-type stars are my favorite candidates for life because of the
above attributes, not to mention you wouldnt need as strong of a
pair of sunglasses. We know that life can exist around G-type stars
like our Sun, and K-type are nearly the same. Their planets will
have to orbit a little bit closer for warmth, but that wont be a
problem for at least the larger of the K-type stars.

M-Type Stars An Enigma

As we explored in the chapter about evolution, life requires

very specific conditions for civilization-building creatures to
evolve. This puts into question life around M-type stars.
M-type stars are different from all other star types in just about
every way, both with positive and negative consequences for life.
M-types mainly include, among others, M-dwarfs, also called Red
Dwarfs, which are the smallest of stars in the main sequence. M-
types can also be much rarer giants, if they are stars at the end of

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their life. Focusing on M-dwarfs for the purpose of hosting

habitable planets, they have two big advantages: their longevity
and their abundance.
The ability of M-dwarf stars to consume their fuel at a slower
rate is the main key to their longevity, some of which can last for
trillions of years. In other star types, the convection process is
limited to either the core or the outer layers, never to the entire star.
In an M-dwarf star, the hydrogen mixes throughout its entire
structure. As such, the star can last significantly longer before
running out of fuel.
In addition to the longevity of M-dwarf stars, the fact that they
are by far the most numerous makes them exciting candidates for
hosting life on orbiting planets. As many as 80% of stars in the
galaxy are M-dwarfs. Even if life were a fraction as abundant
around M-dwarfs as other star types, we should still expect to find
several times more life-bearing planets around these stars than all
other star types combined.
Because of an M-dwarfs tiny size, any planets must orbit very
close to keep warm and to retain liquid water on their surface. The
unfortunate side effect of the planet being so close, though, is its
atmosphere is touched by the stars flare activity.
M-dwarfs are extremely unpredictable in the amount of deadly
radiation they produce, at least early on in their lifetime. In a sun-
like star, flares develop from convection in the outer layers. With
an M-dwarf star, the entire star remains in this twisting and
convective dance, so the magnetic field lines become much more
contorted, capable of throwing out frequent and extremely
powerful flares that can test a planets magnetic field in protecting
life on the surface.
There are other exotic considerations with M-dwarf stars and
their planets, which we will get to in the next chapter.

THE STELLAR GRAVEYARD

Stars eventually die. They last from just a few million years,
like the O-type giants, up to trillions of years for the flaring M-

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dwarfs. As they age, the flaring activity calms down, at which

point the stars enter a midlife period of relative stability. Our Sun
is currently in this midlife stage, at 4.5 billion years of its 10
billion-year lifespan.
The hydrogen the star relies upon for fuel has to run out at some
point. Depending on the original mass of the star and how it
convects the fuel throughout the stars layers, the fate of stars
varies. Their fusion process will eventually stop and for the non-
exploding larger stars, whats leftover is a white dwarf star. A
white dwarf is a small core that no longer produces fusion, but still
shines in the night sky. It will continue to radiate heat for billions
of years, to finally rest as a dead black dwarf a former white
dwarf star that no longer emits any significant heat or light.
For our Sun, and stars of a similar type, as they get hotter, its
hydrogen fuel depletes, and its core eventually compresses as it
starts to fuse helium into carbon. This will heat up the outer layers,
causing the star to expand to many times what we see it today. This
expansion will come in fits and starts, progressing until its
atmosphere cools and turns an orange-red. At its largest, the Suns
radius will be about as wide as Earths orbit. The Sun will either
engulf the planet, or cause it to migrate to a more distant orbit.
The process of expansion will begin long after the Sun boils
off Earths oceans, leaving our planet a dry, lifeless tinder. While
complex life will be long extinct, it is possible that the Sun will
have shed enough mass during this time period, causing the
gravitational pull to weaken, which will in turn allow planets to
migrate further out. Our planet may end up nearly where Mars
currently orbits. If Earthlings have colonized Mars before Earth
becomes uninhabitable, then we might be able to terraform Earth
and bring it back to life again.
For the largest of stars, they will form either ultra-dense
neutron stars or a black hole. Neutron stars are fantastically dense,
and due to conservation of momentum, can rotate hundreds of
times a second. The gravity well is so strong that the atoms inside
are crushed to the point that the electrons and protons fuse into
neutrons, thus the origin of the stars name. A single teaspoon of

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neutron star material would weigh about 10 million tons, or the

weight of Mount Everest!

HABITABLE ZONES

As we know, not all planets are habitable just look at our own
solar system as an example of the limitations around an ordinary
and relatively stable star: only 1 out of 8(+) planets can host life.
Mercury is simply too close to the Sun, Venus just missed the mark
of habitability, Mars had a chance for a while but it is too small to
retain an atmosphere, and the rest of the planets are distant giants
with a crushing atmospheric pressure hundreds of times that of
Earth.
Sometimes called the Goldilocks Zone, the habitable zone is
the area around a star, or possibly a gas giant planet, where life has
the chance of forming. The boundary begins and ends where liquid
water can exist on a surface with atmospheric pressure, i.e. a planet
or moon that has a thick enough atmosphere to sustain liquid water.
Too close to the star and water would boil off, while too far away
and it would freeze.

The hotter the star, the wider and further out its habitable zone
extends. One of the redeeming traits of F-type stars is their zone is
much wider than our Suns own zone, and yet the star isnt too hot
to overly restrict lifes chances to appear. The zone of F-type stars

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is also farther from the stars dangerous solar flares. A wider zone
provides a greater chance for a planet to have liquid water on its
surface, and thus be habitable. In a billion years, Earth will no
longer have water because of the Suns increasing luminosity.
Every star heats up over its main sequence lifetime, and at ever
faster rates for these hotter stars.
For M-dwarfs, the habitable zone is going to be extremely
narrow, and very close to the star. Any habitable planets need to
practically hug the star, perhaps as close as .10 au, or about 10%
the distance from which Earth orbits the Sun. The astronomical
unit (au) is the distance from the Sun to Earth 150 million
kilometers, or 93 million miles. We use this measurement to judge
distances between bodies in our solar system, including other
systems.

Venus and Mars A Unique Family

Defining the boundaries of a habitable zone has been a heated

debate recently, now that weve been discovering so many unique
types of planetary systems. A lot has also been learned about how
carbon dioxide, methane, and even water vapor act as powerful
greenhouse gases that help to regulate a planets atmospheric
temperature. A planets ability to retain heat with greenhouse gases
and a thick atmosphere, will either expand or constrain the
habitable zone of other systems.
If Earth and Mars were swapped, it is possible that Earth in
Mars position would still be a wet and warm planet because its
larger size allows it to retain a thicker atmosphere, trapping in
more heat. For Mars, though, its uncertain if it would be habitable
in any position within the solar system. The smaller the planet, the
more quickly it loses its ability to retain heat, generate plate
tectonics, and hold on to its atmosphere. If the atmosphere is lost,
so will the surface water that is essential for life to evolve. Mars
also lacks a magnetic field to counteract the solar wind that would
also strip away the atmosphere.4

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Physically, Venus is comparable to Earth in many ways, yet

the planet is devoid of life. When the Sun was 30% cooler at the
formation of the solar system, Venus would have been well within
the inner edge of the habitable zone, much like where Earth is
today within the zone. Instead, Venus is now outside this
boundary, too far inward toward the Sun. Our planet has been
completely frozen over many times in its past, so a Venus in Mars
orbit might look very much like Earth today, or one of its past
snowball periods.
Plate tectonics are critical for a planet to be able to recycle its
atmosphere and keep carbon dioxide, methane and other
greenhouse gases at balanced levels. Plate tectonics provides a
natural thermostat that could allow a planet to survive outside the
normal habitable zone boundaries. Scientists think that on planets
at the lower end of the mass scale, like Earth, water is a required
lubricant to keep the plates moving. Without water, the plates
would literally get stuck and the plate tectonic process could shut
down. Simulations suggest that a larger planet than Earth may be
able to retain active plate tectonics, regardless of its water supply.
The shutdown of plate tectonics is probably what happened to
Venus after its surface water evaporated. The poor planet was
simply too close to the Sun and any oceans it had boiled away. In
addition, the planets extremely slow rotation (likely due to an
ancient collision with a protoplanet), and different internal cooling
properties, may have prematurely ended its ability to generate a
global magnetic field, which in turn helps in protecting the
atmosphere and limits water from escaping into space.
Once Venus lost any surface water it had, the water vapor in
the atmosphere started to act as a greenhouse gas. It rose to the
stratosphere and split apart into hydrogen and oxygen from the
intense ultraviolet sunlight. The hydrogen escaped into space,
whereas the oxygen combined with carbon to form carbon dioxide.
With plate tectonics non-existent, the carbon dioxide would never
be absorbed back into the mantle. The end result would be a
buildup of carbon dioxide in Venuss atmosphere to todays level
of 96%.

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A constant loss of atmosphere is what is happening with Venus

and Mars as well. We can even see the atmosphere being blown
into space with certain probes weve sent to these planets, such as
NASAs VeSpR spacecraft sent to Venus, and NASAs Maven
probe sent to Mars. With a non-existent magnetic field that would
otherwise keep the solar wind at bay, a strong electric field still
exists and may be aiding in the loss of atmosphere and its water.
This is especially the case for the now very dry Venus. The electric
field pushes up water molecules high into the atmosphere, where
they are then carried off by the solar wind.
As a consequence of Venuss failure to retain a life-supporting
atmosphere, the planet today is one of the most inhospitable rocky
worlds in the solar system. It has an iron-melting surface
temperature of 462 C (863 F), winds in the upper atmosphere as
high as 400 kilometers per hour, and a crushing atmospheric
pressure 92 times that of Earth. The pressure on the surface of
Venus is equivalent to the pressure a kilometer below Earths
oceans. Life could very well have started on Venus billions of
years ago, but, sadly, complex intelligent life would never have
had enough time to develop.

A Galactic Habitable Zone

While there are zones around the Milky Way that tend to
produce stars with greater metallicity, and thus also planets, its
not as easy to define as recognizing a planet is within its stars
habitable zone. Still, we can calculate some estimates based on a
galaxys structure. Generally, the farther a star is from the center
of the galaxy, the less likely it is to have been seeded with heavier
elements. Far out stars in the galactic halo are called Population II
type stars. Our Sun is a Population I type star and is located well
within the galaxys main bulk of stars.
The habitability of a planetary system within a galaxy is
determined by two primary factors though. The first is whether or
not a star has enough heavier elements so that planets can form.
The second factor is whether or not a star is located in a region of

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the galaxy devoid of destructive phenomena, such as supernova

and gamma ray bursts (GRBs). If both of these criteria are met,
then we could say that a planetary system is within the Galactic
Habitable Zone (GHZ), at least for as long as it stays in the zone.
All stars in the galaxy are moving, so this safe status for any system
is likely temporary, including for our own solar system.
Some star systems have more dangerous paths through the
galaxy than others. Occasionally two stars will drift close to each
other, perturbing their surroundings and threatening any habitable
worlds with incoming asteroids and comets. Our own solar system
has a cloud of primordial comets and asteroids far beyond the orbit
of Pluto, called the Oort Cloud. The material orbits over the course
of thousands of years, rarely disturbing the inner planets. When it
gets disturbed, though, it can be devastating. At least one of Earths
great extinction events is thought to be caused by a star passing by
the Oort Cloud and knocking comets and smaller asteroids into the
inner solar system.
Another extinction event in Earths history is thought to have
been caused by the solar system being too close to a supernova or
a GRB. Fortunately, supernovae only occur in a galaxy about three
times every hundred years, and GRBs occur far less frequently
than supernovae only about three times every million years. The
energy from a GRB also needs to be directed towards a planet, as
they do not spread out their radiation in all directions as much as
supernovae do. If a GRB ever does hit Earth, it would take as little
as a few seconds for it to destroy our protective ozone layer,
without which nearly all higher forms of life would die. Millions
of years would need to pass for life to recover and become as grand
as we see it today.
Fortunately for us, our solar system resides comfortably
between two galactic arms as it revolves around the galaxy. Like
the galactic core, these arms are areas that form more massive stars
which will eventually explode violently. Our solar system only
rarely crosses these high risk areas. Other systems follow much
more chaotic or elongated paths. Some of them will remain in a
galactic arm for millions of years, causing habitable worlds to be

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hit with multiple radiation events, perhaps resulting in their

becoming sterile permanently.
Sadly, the neat little arrangement our solar system has with the
Milky Way is only temporary. Once Andromeda collides with our
galaxy in about four billion years, every star system will be flung
in different directions. Some will even be ejected out of the newly
formed elliptical galaxy altogether. A galactic habitable zone may
become a meaningless term in this chaotic scenario.

ALIEN PLANETARY SYSTEMS

In the search for distant astronomical objects like exoplanets

(planets outside our solar system, also known as extrasolar
planets), telescopes are a critical tool. The first generation of
telescopes used for planet hunting were built in places like Hawaii,
on top of mountains, such as the Caltech Submillimeter
Observatory (CSO), built in 1985. Since a telescope has to peer
through Earths atmosphere, it needs to be as clear of as many
observational distortions as possible, such as pollution, including
light pollution. Humidity can also interfere with clarity, which is
one of the key reasons that mountain tops make excellent sites for
telescopes.
Discovery of the first exoplanet, 51 Pegasi b, was made in 1994
by Dr. Alexander Wolszczan, a Polish astronomer at Pennsylvania
State University. He discovered what is called a hot Jupiter
orbiting 51 Pegasi, a star in the Pegasus constellation. Hot Jupiters
are massive planets the size of Jupiter that orbit extremely close to
their host star. While the discovery of 51 Pegasi b was exciting
news, the planet turned out to not be a candidate for supporting
life. Not only was the planet extremely close to its host star, but
the star itself was a pulsar. Pulsars are dead stars that previously
exploded in a supernova; what remains is a super-dense core that
spins rapidly, giving off radio pulses as it rotates. Unfortunately,
there is little hope of life around such a hostile environment.
Even though life may not exist on 51 Pegasi b, the discovery
of the hot Jupiter proved that other star systems contain planets.

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The discovery also proved that at least some of those planets can
survive the death throes of their stars, or possibly even be created
among the debris leftover from the supernova aftermath.
Just a year later, in 1995, the Swiss team of Michel Mayor and
Didier Queloz discovered another planet, but this time around an
ordinary star like our Sun. The planet was about the size of Jupiter,
and orbits its star so closely that it makes one revolution in just
over four Earth days! Its atmospheric temperature is hot enough to
melt lead, making it impossible for any spacecraft to survive on
the surface for more than a few seconds. Still, it was progress in
finding a planet like our own.

The Golden Age of Planet Hunting

Planet hunting is multitudes more challenging than trying to

find an actual needle in a haystack. Our ability to confirm planets
varies with the size of the planet and how far out it orbits from its
star. The smaller the planet, the harder it will be to detect, and the
farther out the planet orbits, the less its effect on the parent star can
be confirmed.
As planet confirmation took off late last century, scientists,
eager to detect the first exoplanet, worried that we may never find
a planetary system like our own, regardless of the detection
method. Before the first exoplanets were finally discovered, there
was an expectation of how a system ought to be configured: the
small rocky worlds would reside closer to the parent star, gas
giants and icy worlds would inhabit the outer regions, and
somewhere in the middle would lie an asteroid belt a nice
arrangement that provided lots of room for a planet (or many)
within the habitable zone.
Except that is not what has been discovered.
Discoveries so far suggest just about every configuration
possible but one like our solar system. The very first planet
discovered, 51 Pegasi b, orbits in just a few days around a dead
star. Most systems also host super-Earths, which are planets that
are just a bit larger than Earth. We have also discovered planets

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with highly elliptical orbits that make possible any other planets in
the system doubtful; as a planets orbit becomes less circular and
more elliptical, the planet has a greater chance of crossing paths
with another planet. Even binary stars (two stars closely orbiting
each other) have been shown to host planets.

Detection Techniques

One of the first planetary detection techniques used, the radial

velocity method, detects the tug of a planet on its parent star. The
radial velocity method requires the planet to be extremely close to
its star, because were relying on very tiny readings of how the star
is being affected by the planet gravitationally, not through
observing the planet itself. This method is very accurate in
estimating a planets size and distance from its star, but it is not
able to tell us much about a planets composition, including what
gases make up its atmosphere.
The most successful method to date has been the transit
photometry method. As a planet passes in front of its star, the
overall brightness of the star dims by a tiny fraction of a percent.
The larger the planet that passes in front of its parent star, and the
dimmer the star, the easier it is to detect a dip in overall brightness.
The Kepler Space Telescope was built specifically for this
technique. With it, we have been able to identify thousands of
planets with thousands more yet to be confirmed. Confirmation
takes several revolutions of the planet to ensure no false positives.
The transit method has an advantage over the radial velocity
method in that it can detect planets further from the parent star, out
where the habitable zone lies. Other advantages of the transit
method are that planets as small as Mars can be detected. The
transit method is our current best method for discovering a
habitable world similar to Earth.
There are a few disadvantages with the technique. At most,
only 10% of all stars and their planets will be aligned in such a way
that, from our vantage point, we can see any planets pass in front

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of the star. Kepler has a field of view of more than 145,000 stars,
yet it has only confirmed about 2,300 exoplanets so far.
Another disadvantage is that confirming the existence of
planets requires at least three detected orbits. If astronomers are
trying to confirm a planet around a star like our Sun at the distance
Earth orbits, then it will take a year before a planet will pass in
front of the star from our point of view. To detect a planet as distant
as Saturn in this way, it would take 29 years! Confirming a Saturn
world would thus take nearly a century in Earth years.
Other more advanced techniques include direct imaging of a
planet by blocking out the light of the parent star. This approach is
one of the most promising techniques because of its ability to
image planets directly, regardless of how a planetary system is
aligned with our point of view. The technique uses a star shade
(thin film of material floating in space) to block out the light of a
star, allowing us to see any orbiting planets with a camera
positioned behind the star shade.
Another method uses a quirk of physics called gravitational
microlensing to peer through a planetary system to image a planet
directly. Gravitational microlensing works much like the lens of
eyeglasses, except its a star thats bending the light. The light from
a star travels towards another large object, say another star, which
causes the light to bend around the object in such a way that
focuses that light more than it would be traveling in a straight line.
That focusing of the light allows us to more closely evaluate the
stars properties, and because planets are close in orbit, find the
light reflected off the planet as well.
Whichever method is used, planet detection is a very difficult
and sensitive process. Its truly amazing what planet hunters can
tease out of the data despite the accompanying interference. For
example, to find a typical Earth-sized planet around a sun-like star
using any of these methods would be akin to having a firefly in
front of a spotlight in San Francisco, while you are in New York
and using your unaided eyes to try and see the firefly.

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A New Generation of Telescopes

Most telescopes are capable of numerous types of

observations, including planetary research, but also Earth based
science like meteorology.5 Scientists bid for their use, especially
on the larger and more powerful telescopes. Up until 2009, we had
no telescopes exclusive to planet hunting, and certainly none
launched into space. Investors didnt want to incur the expense of
launching a telescope just on the seemingly slim chance that a few
exoplanets would be found. There were means of detecting planets
with existing telescopes, so we first used those to make initial
discoveries that then justified further equipment.
Once it was clear that exoplanets existed in abundance, the
Kepler Space Telescope was launched to discover more. The great
news out of the data collected so far is that just about every star
seems to host at least one planet, and probably a handful more.
This includes binary star systems, as well as smaller M-dwarfs. As
detection techniques are refined, were discovering ever smaller
planets than even Mars and, most importantly, at orbital distances
where liquid water may flow on the surface.
There are some very exciting telescopes being built, due to start
operations this decade, many of which are dedicated to planet
hunting. The most sensitive new telescopes are those that will be
launched into space. Two upcoming ones will replace existing
telescopes with far more powerful instruments: the Transiting
Exoplanet Survey (TESS), and the James Webb Space Telescope
(JWST). There are also quite a few being built on the ground, such
as the W. M. Keck in Hawaii and the Atacama Large
Millimeter/submillimeter Array in Chile.
TESS is due to launch in 2017 and is to be the successor of
Kepler. It will also use the transit photometry method of detection.
As mentioned earlier, this method probes stars for planets that pass
in front of their light. The benefit of this method is that we can
understand in detail the planets overall size, mass, water content,
atmospheric density, composition, and even any industrial
pollutants in the atmosphere.

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The JWST is scheduled to launch in 2018, the successor to the

Hubble Space Telescope. Much like Hubble, JWST will be tasked
with other research priorities, not just planet hunting. The
telescope will be the most advanced weve ever sent into space,
and also the costliest, at more than 8 billion USD. At several times
Hubbles size, it will have to be folded up and then unfurled in
space. As you can imagine, the process of unfurling is risky, so
ongoing testing is being done in order to get it right. If the
telescope malfunctions once in space, it will be so far from Earth,
at an incredible 1.5 million kilometers, that it will be practically
unrepairable without costly missions that take years to complete.
The JWST will be observing objects in the infrared wavelength
of the electromagnetic spectrum. It will therefore need to be far
away from our Sun, otherwise it will pick up the infrared portion
of the Suns energy, drowning out any signal of a distant planet.
The telescope itself will also have to be extremely cold, otherwise
its own electronic heat will distort the image; in fact, it will be
operating at 225 C, or 373 F below zero!
The best location for the JWST is whats called a Lagrange
point. These are points in space between two large bodies, like the
Sun and Earth, where the gravitational pull between the bodies is
balanced. Place an object there and it will stay there, instead of
being pulled more strongly one way or another. There are five such
gravitationally stable points around any two large bodies. Only one
Lagrange point, L2, will be a suitable location for JWST. For Earth
and JWST, L2 is located on the far side of the planet from the Sun,
and beyond the moons orbit.

WHAT WILL WE FIND?

Our sciences have come a long way since Galileo discovered

in 1610 the first moons orbiting another planet, around Jupiter. We
understand a lot about the basic makeup of the solar system, the
Milky Way galaxy, and the farthest reaches of the known
Universe. There seems to be a lot of commonality when we start
categorizing things like galaxies and stars, but once exoplanets

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were discovered, astronomers quickly realized how much variety

the Universe has yet to reveal to us. We will explore the
possibilities in the next chapter.

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CHAPTER 7: THE BOUNDARIES OF

HABITABILITY
Some may argue that a diamond is still a diamond, even if it
is one amongst millions. It still shines as brightly.
Guinan, Star Trek: The Next Generation

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Stars, planets, and life itself arise from a Universe governed by

universal laws of nature. Life on Earth has evolved in accordance
with these laws, and alien life elsewhere will do so as well. That
alien life may have a stockier body due to its planets stronger
gravity, or larger, yellow-tinted eyes due to a slightly different
atmosphere, but theres a reasonable chance it will have a body and
eyes. Even different civilizations inventions will have common
properties, owing to the laws of physics, economic constraints, and
other universal conditions.
In this chapter we will explore a variety of worlds that may
have a chance at being habitable. A continued reference point is
our own solar system weve come to know and love. Starting with
the inner rocky planets, including Earth, they share many
properties. They all orbit in a nearly circular path around the Sun,
each has an atmosphere, and a solid surface that one could set foot
upon, a day and night cycle, and seasonal weather patterns. They
are also all rich in organic compounds, including the chemicals that
emerge from active (or previously active) volcanic systems. Life
is not found on any planet except Earth, though. These sterile
worlds seem to be the norm rather than the exception, even with so
many shared properties.
As we talked about in the previous chapter, there are two
primary considerations for planets to be potentially habitable
(moons will be investigated later): a planets distance from the
parent star and the planets size. These parameters are important in
every system, even binary or trinary star systems. The orbital
distance of a planet has to allow for liquid water on the planets
surface. Too close to the star and water will evaporate into space.
Too distant beyond whats called the Snow Line and water will
freeze. Regarding size, most smaller planets within a stars
habitable zone, like Mars, will not be able to support a thick
enough atmosphere or protective magnetic field, and gas giants
have atmospheres that lack many of the minerals thought needed
for life to evolve.
Encouragingly, of all the stars weve looked at so far that have
planets in orbit, it seems the average number of earth-sized planets

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found in the habitable zone is at least one per star. The excitement
can be tempered with the fact that Mars, and nearly Venus, also
reside within the Suns habitable zone, and one wouldnt want to
book a vacation to either of them anytime soon.
Without closer inspection of planets, what we think we know
about them can be invalidated with the next discovery. For
example, the planetoid Pluto was thought to be a completely sterile
world devoid of even the thinnest of an atmosphere, with no
geological activity of any kind even less life-friendly than our
own moon. What we in fact found though was that Pluto has an
active geological system with ice mountains thousands of feet
high, cliffs and troughs stretching hundreds of kilometers, and a
thin atmosphere that snows nitrogen in regular seasonal patterns.
Even with these active systems, Pluto unfortunately still seems to
be a sterile world.
The more we learn about the worlds in our solar system, the
more were both surprised at their variety, and also disappointed at
their revealing harsh constraints on where life can appear. This
surprise and disappointment duality is likely to repeat itself as we
continue to explore other planetary systems.

INTRODUCING SUPER-EARTHS

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In between gas giants like Jupiter and the tiny dwarfs smaller
than Mars, there is a category of planets larger than Earth, called
super-Earths. Super-Earths include both rocky worlds, as well as
mini gas giants that are similar to Neptune and Uranus, but smaller.
So far, the possibility of life on these earthly giants is looking
both promising and a bit uncertain. The larger super-Earths are
believed to have extremely thick atmospheres of hydrogen and
helium, near the density of Venuss atmosphere. The smaller
super-Earths, however, up to about two times the mass of Earth,
are believed to be good candidates for life, despite still having
somewhat of a thick atmosphere. The smaller super-Earths are
much more likely to have a solid surface as well.
Scientists are close to being able to detect the composition of
the atmospheres of these worlds, and thereby gain great insight into
their habitability.

Gravity of super-Earths

Once a planets mass and volume is calculated, we can easily

estimate its gravity.1 Lets assume we discover a planet tomorrow
that has the same density as Earth, but with a radius 25% greater.
This would put it well within the super-Earth category. It would
have about three times Earths gravity. That sounds crushingly
uncomfortable, and it would be to us, but not necessarily for any
life that evolves to adapt to that pressure. Fighter pilots can handle
forces greater than 3G (three times Earths gravitational pull).
Human physiology only starts to have problems upon reaching
5Gs for more than a few seconds. At about 8-10G, we risk passing
out; the heart becomes unable to pump blood to the brain.
There are surprisingly few obvious physical limitations that
would prevent a civilization from developing on a stronger gravity
world. The most significant issue would be the civilizations
ability to send objects into space. Even a modest increase in gravity
would noticeably increase the fuel required to launch a rocket into
orbit. On Earth, it already costs thousands of dollars to send even

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a few pounds into orbit, and over 90% of the mass of a rocket is in
the propellant.
Other than the interest to explore outer space, a civilization
would only need to compensate for a higher gravity environment,
such as using thicker steel for skyscrapers, and lighter composite
materials for airplanes would probably be researched sooner than
they were on Earth.

Geology of super-Earths

The geology of a planet is critical to maintaining a stable

environment in which life can thrive. Super-Earths may be even
more geologically active than Earth, with vigorous plate tectonics
to recycle their atmospheres and keep them cool enough for life to
thrive. One might think that a vigorous shifting of the plates would
make these planets extremely unstable. The case may be instead
that because they can vent their interior heat more frequently,
globally impactful events like volcanoes and earthquakes would
occur less frequently.

Atmospheres of super-Earths

How exoplanets atmospheres would (or do) affect any life on

them is perhaps one of the most complicated and least understood
aspects, even more so than what lies beneath their surface. Until
super-Earths atmospheres can be studied up-close and in detail,
models are all we have to reveal the likely limits on life, and those
models are currently showing a wide range of possibilities.
Most models of super-Earth atmospheres suggest that the
smaller super-Earths have a thin nitrogen-covered envelope, while
the larger ones are more likely to remain shrouded in a thick
blanket of hydrogen. Some models suggest that a planet 1.5 to 2
times the mass of Earth would have so much extra hydrogen and
helium that even with the stars ultraviolet radiation stripping away
the atmosphere atom by atom, wouldnt be enough to remove all
of the lighter gases. Our planets own atmosphere is composed of

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78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and traces of argon and other gases. It
contains no hydrogen at all. As with a stronger surface gravity, an
atmosphere denser than Earths doesnt preclude life, but we are
still unsure how a civilization may survive on such a world.
(Additionally, the atmosphere is the final threshold to space, and a
dense atmosphere makes it a challenge to develop further as a
spacefaring civilization.)
The surface temperature of a world is an important factor in
habitability. Cloud albedo (when clouds reflect sunlight back into
space) regulates a planets atmospheric temperature, so it plays a
significant role in whether or not a planet is habitable. If we detect
a planet with a high albedo specific to cloud formation (not a world
covered in ice), then well know its a wet world, and probably on
the warm side. A greenhouse world would eventually result in the
total loss of water on the surface of the planet.
Another factor of habitability of a super-Earth is its
atmospheric wind speed. The faster a planet rotates, the stronger
the average surface wind speed will tend to be. For example,
Uranus, a gas giant much larger than super-Earths, has a rotation
rate of about 17 hours per day and winds of hundreds of kilometers
per hour. All else being equal, super-Earth wind speeds should
fortunately be just a bit more than we experience on Earth, so life
may still be able to thrive on these worlds.

Super-Earths Are Everywhere!

Super-Earths are extremely common in the galaxy; they are

found around nearly every star that we detect orbiting planets.
Interestingly, our solar system seems to be the odd one out in that
it doesnt contain a super-Earth, while most other systems have at
least one. Since Earth is thought to be on the smaller end of planets
capable of supporting life, the law of averages suggests that most
alien civilizations reside on these larger super-Earths, if these
planets are found to actually be habitable at all.

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PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES OF EARTH-LIKE

While there is a significant range in star sizes, the vast majority

sit in a single category. As we talked about in the previous chapter,
the largest stars (types O, B, and A) will burn themselves out
before complex life has a chance to evolve on their orbiting
planets.2 They account for about 1% of all stars. F-, G- and K-types
add up to about 10% of all stars. Another 10% are dead stars and
other oddities. We are left with nearly 80% of all stars that we are
not quite sure can support habitable worlds at all.
This entire 80% rests with M-dwarf stars. They are so plentiful
in the Universe that their sheer number alone demands that
astronomers rigorously investigate the potential for habitability.
There are two reasons they populate every corner of the galaxy:
they last a long time and are produced in stellar clouds like weeds
in a garden. Much like any objects found on Earth, its typically
easier for nature to produce the smaller variety. The tiniest of M-
dwarfs are not all that much larger than the planet Jupiter.
So far M-dwarfs are proving very promising for finding planets
around them. The question remains as to whether or not those
worlds are habitable. Habitability is dependent more on the size of
a planet than on any other factor. The size of all detected planets
around M-Dwarfs so far range from gas giants like Jupiter all the
way to Mars-sized bodies (and undoubtedly there are smaller
exoplanets, we just havent detected these worlds yet), so size
wont be a problem. We have reason to get excited that at least
some of those worlds may be habitable.

An M-Dwarfs Younger Years

For the first couple of billion years or so of an M-dwarfs life,

the star will go through the same active flaring our Sun did in its
youth, except at an increased rate with even more powerful
episodes. The intense output of radiation from these flares may
severely disrupt the chances for life to thrive on an orbiting world,

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both because of the radiation itself, and because the star produces
more sunspots during this active time.
Sunspots are areas on the surface of a star where the stars
magnetic field becomes twisted, producing intense energy that is
ready to be unleashed at any moment in the form of powerful
flares. The surface of a sunspot is actually much cooler than the
material beneath. On stars like our Sun, sunspots can increase its
light and heat output possibly for months at a time. These
sunspots can be a significant cause of climate shifts, such as
Earths Maunder Minimum event that lasted from approximately
1635 to 1720 A.D.3 During this period, as the number of sunspots
plummeted, so did the planets average temperature.
Sunspots on M-dwarf stars function differently; they can be so
enormous that their cooler surface areas cause the opposite effect,
in that they lower the light and heat output of the star. This
reduction in light and heat can be devastating to any life on orbiting
planets by orders of magnitude of what Earth experienced during
the Maunder Minimum event.
What would it be like if an M-Dwarf stars sunspots blocked
out 10, 20, or even 30% of the incoming light for months at a time,
dropping temperatures on an orbiting planet not by just a few
degrees, but possibly by hundreds of degrees? By comparison, if
this dimming happened to Earth, many plants and animals would
suffer severe frostbite and eventually or suddenly die. The
plants and animals that hibernate when winter arrives would need
to hibernate for longer periods. If life is possible on such a world,
that life may produce amazing new features and abilities to adapt
to extreme and unpredictable changes in temperature.
At its most active periods, our Sun spits off as many as twenty
flares a day. Young M-dwarfs may flare hundreds of times a day
and emit giant flares that temporarily double the stars brightness.
Solar flares are bad news for life, especially when the flares are
hundreds of times more powerful than those our own planet has
ever experienced. Flares can overpower a planets magnetic field,
especially on a smaller world similar in size to Mars where the
field is probably going to be weaker. The atmosphere of a small

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planet could be stripped off by the solar wind. Life may never have
the chance to even get started.
A larger planets atmosphere though could survive an attack
by the parent stars flaring activity. A super-Earth with a radius 1.2
to 2 times that of our planet may have an atmosphere that is dense
enough for a thin but life-sustaining layer of gas to remain, post-
flare. An M-dwarfs more active early years with its constant solar
flaring may help clear away some of the lighter gases. The remains
of the atmosphere billions of years later may then be earth-like.
Then again, the parent star may leave the planet a dry tinder if the
flaring activity goes on for too long.

Tidally Locked Worlds

If you look up at our moon on a clear night, and do this

repeatedly over the course of several evenings, you will notice that
the same side of the moon faces Earth each night. How could this
be if everything in the solar system is rotating? Shouldnt the moon
be rotating as well? Yes, and it does, but we dont notice it because
the rotation is exactly in sync with our planets own rotation. Like
two ballerinas staring into each others eyes, they are barely aware
that its not the room thats spinning, but they themselves.
The moons rotation has slowed Earths rotational rate
considerably since the moon first formed. At its formation, our
planet used to spin so fast, a day was less than twelve hours long!
Over time, the gravitational pull between Earth and the moon, as
well as other bodies in the solar system, caused the rotation to
slow. While an Earth day (one rotation) has doubled in time, the
change has been even more pronounced for the moon because of
the difference in size Earths gravity influences the moon more
strongly. The moon now rotates so slowly, it is in what is called a
tidally locked position, rotating only once for every revolution
around our planet. This 1:1 orbital resonance is why the moon will
always face the planet in the same way.
Any planet that orbits its star at half or less the distance that
Earth orbits the Sun will also become tidally locked. The day and

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night cycle we find natural on Earth would not exist on these

worlds. The star would forever shine in the same spot on the near
side of the planet with the far side in perpetual darkness
(disregarding binary star systems for the sake of simplicity here).
Mercury is this way, forever tidally locked with the Sun.
Whether its huge gas giants or tiny orbiting moons, the tidal
lock effect is the same. A tidally locked world then must be
detrimental for life or perhaps not?

Habitability of Tidally Locked Worlds

When planets were first confirmed around M-dwarf stars by

the Kepler spacecraft, scientists thought that such worlds would
bake on one side and lock up all the water into ice on the other
side, making it impossible to foster life. It makes sense at first
glance, but it turns out that simulations reveal other factors that
may keep the planet from becoming half-snow cone/half-burnt
toast. A convection process similar to atmospheric winds might
keep water flowing across the planet, regulating the hydrological
cycle, as well as moderating global temperatures. Simulations
show that as long as there is enough water, ice floating to the day
side will repeatedly melt and cycle back via deep ocean currents.
The regulation of temperature and the hydrological cycle will
tell us where life can reside on the planet. If life cannot survive on
the day or night sides, life may still reside along the narrow band
between the two sides, known as the terminator. If life can only
exist along the terminator, there could still be plenty of land for
life to one day build a civilization, especially if the planet is
relatively large. As a civilization advances technologically, it can
then make use of the more extreme environments across the rest of
the planet, just like we do today in Antarctica, Siberia, and other
areas on Earth.
M-dwarf stars radiate more infrared energy than other star
types. Plants growing on an orbiting planet will need to evolve
ways of capturing energy in infrared. Our Sun produces a lot of
energy in multiple wavelengths, so plants dont need to absorb

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every wavelength; if they did though, the plant would appear black
to us. Instead, they reflect the green part of the visible light
spectrum. On a planet orbiting an M-Dwarf star, in order to
maximize energy absorption, plants will probably need to absorb
all wavelengths, and thus are likely to be dark in color. If you ever
wore a black shirt on a hot summer day, you have an idea of how
much of a difference color can make!
As was mentioned in the opening chapter, even though the
interior composition and rotation of a planet is critical in forming
of its magnetic field, a tidally locked world is still technically
rotating as it revolves around its star. While we have not yet
confirmed any tidally locked world having a magnetic field, the
speed at which such a world completes a revolution should be
enough to generate a magnetic field of sufficient strength
(according to some models at least) to protect the atmosphere.

Movie Example White Dwarf

What a fantastical concept a world where one half

experiences perpetual daylight and the other half experiences
perpetual night. How would a civilization survive along the thin
terminator that separates the two sides? There are more than a few
fantasy and sci-fi stories that explore what a civilization on such a
divided world may look like.
In the movie White Dwarf (1995), humans find a habitable
world tidally locked to its star. Colonies have developed across the
planet, on both the day and night sides. The day side is a bustling
place with sophisticated technologies; it enjoys perpetual sunshine,
beautiful rolling hills and plentiful fields of food. The inhabitants
are social and appreciative of the arts. Meanwhile, the night side is
a war-torn medieval kingdom; it is blanketed with raging storms
and devastating tornadoes, but it benefits from numerous mines
full of rare metals that are used for war with the day side. The dark
side seems frustrated with its less than ideal landscape, and it is
always attempting to stir up trouble for the day side. A massive
wall separates the two along the planets terminator, much like the

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Great Wall of China that functioned to keep the Mongolian hordes

from invading.
Other examples of films and literature presenting tidally locked
worlds include the movie Star Trek: Nemesis, a speculative
documentary, What if the Earth STOPS Spinning, and Isaac
Asimovs novel, Nemesis, among many other stories.

Just a Little Instability

M-dwarf stars can last for trillions of years. While planets

around these stars may therefore have trillions of years for life to
develop, continual environmental change will be key for that life
to advance into intelligent beings like ourselves. If our past
environment had been more stable, there may never have been a
reason for humans to evolve into quick-witted and long-legged
creatures that could escape a predator, war, or drought. Similarly,
higher intelligence may not have evolved at all if there had been
no need to migrate to other areas, which forced social interactions
with other groups. A peek at Earths own history suggests that
there is a delicate balance between stability and change.
We dont know what the environment on M-dwarf planets is
actually like, but if life exists on these worlds at all, it is bound to
be interesting and different from our own. What we have learned
so far about exoplanets is that they have surprised us every
preconceived notion about what they should be like has been
turned upside down.

OTHER, EVEN MORE EXOTIC WORLDS

Habitable Moons

While M-dwarf star systems are the most abundant type in the
galaxy, host to strange worlds that call into question the limits of
habitability, they are not at the top of the list of the strange and
unusual. That spot is reserved for moons around gas giants. These

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moons are still going to be tidally locked, but to their parent planet,
not the star.
While a tidally locked world in itself may not be a problem for
life, the smaller size of a moon will have more serious
consequences. The reduced gravity of a small moon will make it
difficult to maintain a thick enough atmosphere and an active
geology with rigorous plate tectonics. Without an atmosphere or
active geology, liquid water and a recycling of the atmosphere (to
reduce toxic gases and to regulate the greenhouse effect) may not
be possible.
There are a few exceptions in our own solar system that defy
the expectation that a moon will lack a thick atmosphere and active
geology. One very special exception is Saturns largest moon,
Titan, which can hold on to an atmosphere thanks to its cold
environment. Titan also had an atmosphere partly because of
episodic outgassing from its interior.
Another interesting moon around Saturn is Enceladus, which
is suspected to have a massive liquid ocean underneath kilometers
of ice. While Enceladus has no atmosphere to keep water from
evaporating, the gravitational stresses from Saturn cause the moon
to flex enough to drive an active geology underneath the ice crust.
The heat produced from the friction process makes it possible for
the water to be liquid and to form the ocean beneath.
Saturns immense magnetic field does a pretty good job at
shielding both Titan and Enceladus from direct solar radiation,
which would otherwise sweep away any atmosphere they have,
halting any evolving life dead in its tracks. The moons have to be
close enough to the planet though in order to be sufficiently
protected, but not so close as to be affected by radiation coming
from the planets own magnetic field.
An interesting mathematical equation called the Hill Radius
suggests that there is a limit to how distant a moon can be to its
parent planet without being gravitationally overtaken by other
bodies in the system.4 For example, lets say a gas giant is orbiting
where Earth now orbits the Sun, and the moon is now an Earth-
sized body. All else being equal, because of the Hill Radius, in

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order to maintain a stable orbit, an orbiting moon would need to

hug the parent planet extremely close, otherwise the Sun and other
solar system bodies would start to influence the moon. It would
either end up migrating to its own orbit around the star, or be
thrown out of the system altogether.
The movie Avatar (2009) is a strange example of an exomoon
with an abundance of life. From what is currently understood, an
exomoon with this much life is not entirely out of the question, but
of course there are going to be those pesky physical limitations to
consider, like the thin or even nonexistent atmosphere due to very
low gravity. Even with these limitations in mind, some scientists
think that there might be as many habitable exomoons in the galaxy
as there are exoplanets! Examples need to be discovered, otherwise
there are simply too many variables to build a reliable model.

Rogue Planets

The configuration of our solar system turns out to be atypical.

In fact, its unique, and so is just about every system we discover
with respect to every other. There are some similarities, but they
differ wildly. When other star systems are searched for planets, we
often find the planets orbiting their parent star extremely closely.
These systems sometimes have super-Earths, or lack gas giants.
The strangest planetary system so far has been one that appears to
have large moon-sized comets careening around the star in
elongated orbits, coming as close to the star as Mercury, and then
going as far away as Saturn. These eccentric orbits cast doubt on
the possibility that any other planets could remain in orbit for long.
Despite the wide variety in system configurations, we can
safely assume that a planetary system is a very chaotic place in its
early stages of formation. Planetary orbits will shift as the planets
jostle for position over the most stable spots in the system. As they
gravitationally tug on each other, many will collide, eject others
out of the system, or crash straight into their star. After this battle
settles down millions of years later, a final stable configuration of
orbiting bodies results.

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During the formation of our solar system, some planetoids

(small bodies with diameters from one to several hundred
kilometers) merged to form the planets we see today. Earth was
not isolated from these events. As our planet was forming a crust,
a Mars-sized body happened to be on just the right angular path to
collide, providing enough momentum for the resulting debris to
form the moon. The asteroid belt is a remnant would-be planet that
did not survive this billiard game.
Planets that get dealt the unlucky fate of being ejected out of
the system entirely are going to have a very cold and dark
existence, forever drifting between the stars, and perhaps
eventually taking its leave of the galaxy altogether. Another star
may one day capture the escapee, but the chances of this are very
low; an amateur golfer has a greater chance of hitting a hole in one
(which happens to be 1 in 12,750).
These rogue planets that meander the Universe may be
surprisingly numerous. Some estimates suggest that they are
100,000 times more common than stars, at least in the Milky Way.
Its such a fantastically high number, the calculation will give an
error on a standard calculator. At such a number, we start to lose
sense of just how many rogue planets were talking about.
What would the surface of such a rogue, aimless world be like?
As the planet recedes from the star, temperatures would drop in a
matter of hours, just like they do on the night side of Earth, except
that temperatures would keep dropping. Depending upon the
thickness of the atmosphere, any internal heating processes, and
volcanic eruptions, eventually the planet would reach a thermal
equilibrium with the cold vacuum of space.
Interestingly, even on a rogue planet theres a chance for life
to survive. Take a larger world that is ice-covered. Deep oceanic
vents will warm life and provide the energy and nutrients that it
needs. Abbot and Switzer, a pair of astrophysicists at the
University of Chicago, calculated that a planet 3.5 times the mass
of Earth would be warm enough at the core to maintain a liquid
ocean beneath an ice crust a few kilometers thick, where life could

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lurk. They suggest that this ocean could last for as long as five
billion years certainly long enough for life to evolve.
One of these rogue planets is thought to be Nibiru, otherwise
known as Planet X. Conspiracy theorists suggest (without any
evidence whatsoever) that it is on a collision course with Earth.
Even if a rogue planet were indeed on a path toward the inner solar
system, it would not be a concern for us anytime soon. Planets as
far as 1,000 AU (Astronomical Unit) should be detectable.5 At that
distance, it would take at least a few decades for it to get close
enough to start affecting the orbits of the outer gas giants. While
as yet unconfirmed, Planet 9 is suggested to be several hundred
AU out from the Sun. The path it likely takes will never come close
to the inner solar system. We are safe from its influence.

A COLLECTIVE EVOLUTION

The Universe is aging in a way that will make it either more

conducive to life, or less so, and much of this depends on which
elements in the Universe increase and which decrease. We know
that life on Earth is carbon-based. It might surprise you to learn
that our planet is considered a silicate planet and not a carbon one.
While theres obviously enough carbon to form life, the vast
majority of material is silicate-based. Mountains and sandy
beaches are composed of silicates.
One might assume that a carbon-rich planet would make an
even better home for life than Earth, as it has more of the very
element were made of carbon. But this is not necessarily the
case. For instance, the carbon-to-oxygen ratio of Earth provides a
low enough carbon part to allow water vapor to form; without
vaporization, the hydrological cycle is thwarted. Higher levels of
carbon may also produce a hazy atmosphere of natural pollution,
complicating plant growth and, by extension, the evolution of any
animals. A highly carbon-rich planet may resemble Saturns moon
Titan, which has a haze of hydrocarbons in its atmosphere. For our
planet, this would be a pollutant, but a different kind of life may
still be able to evolve in such a haze.

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Currently the carbon-to-oxygen ratio in high-metallicity stars

and their planets is approximately 0.4 to 1.0. While our solar
system is set in its ratio of these two elements, this wont be the
case for future systems yet to be born. Every generation of planets
will tilt towards being more carbon-based, and that may have
significant consequences for how abundant life can get. Whether
those consequences are positive or negative, we dont know we
have to discover other life-bearing worlds to find out.
Though alien life may be recognizable in some ways, other
ways are just as likely going to be completely unique. How
fantastically unique can life get? We really have no idea yet - all
we know is that alien life will evolve according to the laws of
nature and physics. Imagine creatures larger than whales flying
high in the sky of a super-Earth, brushing clouds of methane, or
perhaps an entire planets ecosystem interconnected so much that
it is essentially one living, breathing, and thinking organism. Or
how about a creature with two independent brains?

HABITABILITY ZONE SAMPLE

The above chart depicts the range of habitability for known

exoplanets.8 The circles are representing the size of a planet. The

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Stellar Flux axis notes the energy output of the planets parent star,
and the Stellar Temperature axis is showing the stars temperature.
Planets depicted to the lower left are thus closer to their parent
stars. The most important point to note are the bands. The darkest
band depicts just the right distance from a star where a planet could
have liquid water on its surface, and thus be habitable. The
percentage of greenhouse gases in a planets atmosphere will shift
its placement along the graph.
The Universe, at least our corner of it in the Milky Way, seems
to have produced exoplanets in abundance.6 As detection
techniques improve, even more exoplanets will be discovered.
While gas giants and planets closer to their stars currently
dominate the overall count, eventually they should be in the
minority, since these two types of planets are easier to detect. The
discovery of a distant Pluto-sized exoplanet, for instance, is going
to come far later than a systems inner planets.
Upcoming telescopes present a good chance for us to find out
the true nature of super-Earths and other exotic worlds.5 We should
soon be able to confirm the existence of plate tectonics and any
magnetic field by observing the effects shifting plates and an active
magnetic field have on a planets atmosphere. From what detection
techniques have been developed so far, its likely the secrets these
worlds keep will eventually be revealed in the next couple of
decades. We will then be able to apply learned techniques to
analyze the atmospheres of even smaller worlds, perhaps one day
actually finding a truly habitable one!7

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CHAPTER 8: THE SCALE OF THINGS

Space is big. Really big. You just wont believe how vastly,
hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean you may think its a
long walk down the road to the chemist, but thats just peanuts to
space.- Douglas Adams The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy

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The practically infinite scales of space and time are nearly

incomprehensible. Time spans from the billions of years the
Universe has existed to the fraction of a second that it takes to split
an atom in a nuclear reactor, and time includes the middle ground
of a still brief but rich span of an average human life. Scales in
distance are just as stupendous. The immensity of space, both in
the void between galaxies and the void between atoms, is difficult
to visualize.
Experiencing cosmic scales of space and time directly may not
be possible, but we can still use comparisons to better understand
them. For instance, if the Sun were the size of New York City, then
the nearest star, Alpha Centauri A, would be as far away as San
Francisco. Looking at it another way, scaling down Earth to the
size of a grain of sand, the Sun would be about the size of a grape
and one meter away from the grain of sand. Alpha Centauri A
would be more than 125 kilometers away!
Whether its billions of years or billions of ants on an ant hill,
were still counting using numbers that did not exist in the minds
of humans just a few millennia ago.

SCALING EXISTENCE1

Amount Scale Example

Million 106 A million seconds is 11.57 days

Billion 109 A billion hours ago, humans were just

entering the Stone Age

Trillion 1012 About how many stars there are in the

Andromeda Galaxy

Quadrillion 1015 A stack of papers reaching to the moon

and back, 14 times over

Googol 10100 There are not enough atoms in the

Universe to equal a Googol!

Multiverse 10500 Possible number of dimensional shapes

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Counting Them All Up

If you hold a pen to the night sky, the tip of that pen would
cover an area the size of what is famously known as the Hubble
Deep Field (HDF). The HDF is a tiny fraction of the sky that at
first looks completely devoid of stars from telescopes with less
power than Hubble. The HDF is anything but empty when one
takes a closer look. What Hubble found in that pen point is more
than 10,000 galaxies. Because the Universe is homogenous, i.e.
unvarying across the largest of scales, every other area of a pen
point in the sky also contains as many galaxies.2 Total all of those
galaxies up and you get at least 160 billion in the Universe!3
How do we comprehend the sheer scale of billions of galaxies
and trillions of stars? We could start with an analogy and say that
there are more stars than there are grains of sand on all the beaches
on Earth. Thats hundreds of thousands of grains of sand in a single
handful, and trillions of handfuls worth. We can extend this
analogy into the seemingly infinite to include the hundreds of
trillions of planets orbiting the Universes stars.
Even more out of this world are the number of atoms in the
Universe. Because math is so consistent and accurate regardless of
scale, we can count how many atoms there are, within a reasonable
margin of error. The mass of the different star types can be
measured from the atomic weight, multiply that by the amount of
stars of that type in the galaxy, calculating in other massive bodies
like supermassive black holes, and then how much influence
galaxies have gravitationally upon other nearby galaxies. We can
get a rough estimate of the total mass of the Universe through all
of these gravitational interactions. The actual calculation is of
course more complicated than this single paragraph suggests, but
it is still possible to estimate.
That number ends up being somewhere between 1078 and 1082
atoms. Keep in mind that here we mean the observable Universe,
which extends outward 46 billion light years in any direction.
For a counting example closer to home, an elderly Chinese man
named Zhang Ming-hua has lived his entire life along the Great

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Wall of China. Since he was a teen, Mr. Zhang has worked on a

rather extraordinary project for the Red Guard. His assigned task
is to count every single brick in the wall. The wall spans 21,196
kilometers, or 13,170 miles. So far Mr. Zhang has counted the
bricks in about 20,500 kilometers of the wall. Mr. Zhang estimates
that he has a couple of years left and will have counted
approximately 10 billion bricks upon completion.

The Largest and Smallest

We can visualize everyday objects like a school bus, an office

building, a large lake surrounded by forest, and even vast mountain
ranges that span from one horizon to the next. Objects much larger
than a mountain range and we start to have difficulty
comprehending how large they really are; we end up needing to
use vague and clumsy comparisons and mathematical language.
Even our great imaginations quickly fail us once we get much
beyond the scale of objects like planets and stars.
For the purpose of comparing the largest to the smallest, lets
start with the extreme vastness of the entire Universe. If the
Universe were the size of Earth, by extension, Earth in our model
would be about the size of an atom, and the solar system would
only be the size of a dust particle. The Milky Way galaxy, which
is amongst the largest of objects in the Universe, would only be the
size of a small house.
Now lets reverse the model and try to grasp the very smallest
of objects. While we can imagine forever zooming in, it turns out
there actually is a limit. That limit is the Planck Length and is 1.6
x 10-35 meters, or 0.000000000000000000000000000000000016
meters. Numbers this small are impossible for the human mind to
comprehend, so we must once again use analogies to grasp the
truly infinitesimally small scale of the Planck Length. If the
smallest dust particle the human eye could see where scaled up to
the size of the Universe, the Planck Length would then be about
the same size as the original particle, relative to our models
expanded Universe-sized particle.

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When I was a kid, I used to imagine entire universes somehow

embedded in every atom of my body. The scales of space and time
had no boundaries for my imagination. If we find out one day that
space and time are infinite, who's to say that at the Planck Length
it ends there? Perhaps if one could zoom in far enough, they would
get drawn into an entirely new universe? What if the Universe
around us is at the Planck Length of someone elses universe?

EVOLUTION AND DEEP TIME

Deep time is a term used to describe the astonishingly vast

period of time over which geological changes, like the moving of
continents and the evolution of life, occurs. When we ask the
question what time is it? we are usually referring to the hour and
minutes of a particular day. If you were to ask the question what
deep time is it? your response might be the geological time period
we live in, which is a relatively new epoch called the Holocene,
spanning from about 12,000 years ago to the present.
As long as 12,000 years may sound, it pales in comparison to
the lifetime of our species. Take 12,000, multiply by 20 and you
get an estimate of how long Homo sapiens has existed, which is
about 200,000 years, or enough time for a few ice ages and several
smaller glaciations to occur. Multiply 200,000 by 9.5 to get 1.9
million years ago and you are in the time that Homo erectus split
off from an ancestor that resembles todays great apes. Two
million years is enough time for over 8,000 United States to
develop from its inception to the present state.
If we compress all of deep time down to a 24-hour clock,
starting at the beginning of Earths formation 4.54 billion years
ago, and work our way forward to the dawn of man, we can put
deep time into a framework that can be better understood. Each
hour represents about 189 million years. Each minute, 3.15 million
years.4
Starting at 00:00 hours until about 04:00, the planet cools and
a crust layer forms. Meteors continually rain down from the sky
with a still coalescing moon overhead. Temperatures are into the

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hundreds of degrees Celsius. Other than a chaotic and hot solar

system filled with dozens of planet-sized objects occasionally
colliding with each other, things are not very exciting on newly
formed Earth. It is at 04:00 that the continents start to form.
From about 04:00 to 09:00, single-celled bacteria are all that
evolves deep in the oceans, emitting oxygen as a byproduct. The
oceans absorb the oxygen over a billion years, until it reaches a
tipping point when oxygen begins to fill the atmosphere, around
2.5 billion years ago, at 12:00 on our clock. Known as the Great
Oxygenation Event, this period in Earths history is one of the most
important evolutionary events, as it opened the door to the
evolution of multicellular life, and eventually billions of complex
species.
Once enough oxygen builds up in the atmosphere, the ozone
layer forms. Ozone is made up of three oxygen atoms (O3), also
known as trioxygen, and it blocks the UV radiation from the Sun
that is harmful to life. Water also blocks this harmful radiation, and
is why life before the Great Oxygenation Event only inhabited the
oceans. Now life can move out of the water and onto land. All life
still inhabits the water until 18:40 when the first simple plant life
manages to evolve on land, suspected to be in the form of blue-
green algae (Cyanobacteria). Vascular plants appear at about
21:36, insects at 21:52, and dinosaurs at 22:47.
At 23:40 the dinosaurs die out. The entire age of the largest
land animals to ever roam Earth, more than 160 million years of
evolutionary history, amounts to less than an hour on our clock.
The first significant deposits of carbon and other organic
compounds form at this time as well, and they are the deposits we
use today as oil and natural gas to power our cars and homes.
At 23:43 the first large mammals appear and dominate the
globe, filling a niche the dinosaurs left just a few minutes earlier.
At 23:59 and 12 seconds the genus Homo evolves. Finally, at 23:59
and 56 seconds, modern humans, Homo sapiens, appear. They
make a grand entrance with only a few seconds left on our clock
before it strikes 24:00.

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We considered deep time in an example from our past, but

what about the future? Star birth and planet formation will
continue for trillions of years more. There is a lot of time for the
Universe to expand and evolve much more than the 13.8 billion
years it has existed thus far. So the deep time of the future lends
great hope for the evolution of intelligent life.

Another Case for M-Dwarfs

Complex multicellular organisms have existed for a few

hundred million years, which is a miniscule fraction of the time
available for life to develop around M-dwarf stars, which can exist
for a trillion years or more. To grasp what kind of opportunity it
would be for life to have a trillion years to evolve, consider that a
trillion years is about 73 times that of the Universes current age
of 13.8 billion years. A trillion years is also 100 times the lifespan
of our Sun, and 5 million times the total number of years humans
have existed. You could watch Earth be born, witness life evolve,
observe the sliver of time during which humans build great
civilizations many times over, eventually see the aging Sun boil
away the planets oceans and evaporate its atmosphere, and then
repeat the entire spectacle at least 185 times before the last M-
dwarf stars finally burn themselves out.
If, on average, it takes at least a billion years for a planet to
become habitable, and another couple of billion more for life to
evolve into something capable of intelligence, M-dwarf planets
should have plenty of opportunity to evolve the kind of life we are
looking for in our telescopes.
Lets assume for a moment that M-dwarf systems never start
out with a planet in their habitable zone, but instead the planet
resides far out in the icy suburbs beyond the Snow Line, like
Jupiter or Saturn does in our solar system. This does not pose a
problem for the development of life because, over deep time, a
fraction of systems will have planets that slowly migrate into a
habitable orbit.

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Even when an M-dwarf star is young and emits tons of

radiation that strips away much of an orbiting planets atmosphere,
life just needs a thin protective layer remaining, a significant
percentage of surface water, and an initial set of chemical
conditions to get started. If life can get started at this early stage in
the stars stage of development, then deep time alone will favor
life evolving into more interesting and hardy forms later on.
For instance, there could be countless resets on M-dwarf
worlds where life is nearly destroyed and rebuilds back up again
into something complex. Life on Earth has been disrupted, or
almost set back to single-celled existence, numerous times since
multicellular life evolved 500 million years ago. Every few million
years there is a large asteroid strike, supervolcano eruption, or
some other disaster. Earth recovers thanks to deep time. It only has
about 900 million years left, though, for evolution to play out,
before the Sun toasts our planet. The clock is ticking!

In the Blink of a Civilization

We know that civilizations have come and gone throughout

history. Its easier to grasp how quickly some of them have
vanished over time, but difficult to appreciate how some have
survived for centuries, inevitably changing their culture along the
way. Among them are the Chinese, Egyptians, Israelites, Japanese,
and Mongols. While the descendants of these ancient people thrive
in the same lands today, they differ enough from their ancestors so
as to be classified as a separate civilization.
About 5,000 years ago in 3100 B.C., civilization in ancient
Egypt began. In case 5,000 years doesnt seem like a lot of time,
lets put that number into perspective. The average lifespan of an
individual back in 5000 B.C. was about 25 years, birthed by
parents at roughly the age of 14-20. Over the course of this 5,000
years, on average about 200 generations lived.
Many people can trace their lineage as far back as perhaps a
few hundred years (some can go back much further). Keep in mind
that this represents just a handful of generations. Take the family

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tree you see and multiply the count of persons by a hundred. Now
you are closer to the amount of ancestors youve had over the last
5,000 years!
Go back far enough and eventually your lineage will converge
with mine and everyone elses. This convergence point between
lineages is called the MRCA, or Most Recent Common Ancestor.5
The convergence occurs because not every branch of the family
tree survives, and so eventually there comes a point in the past
when a single individual will be the MRCA for the entire
population that follows in the future.
The MRCA of todays human population dates back to around
65,000-75,000 years ago. If there had been no isolated populations,
separated by continents, on remote islands, and other obstacles that
prevented breeding between groups, then the MRCA would have
lived as recently as 3,000 to 5,000 years ago.

Humanitys Expanding Waistline

Some estimates suggest that the entire human population that

has ever walked on Earth amounts to about 108 billion. This is
quite generalized, given the time scales involved, and that there is
no way that we can establish when one species split off from
another with any real precision. Our current global civilization
stands at almost 7.5 billion people. This is 7% of the entire
population that has ever lived!
For nearly the entire span of human history, worldwide
population remained much less than a billion persons, and as low
as just a few thousand during extreme disasters. After thousands
of years of flat growth, birth rates rose sharply during the 18th
century, as humans began prospering like never before. World
population hit one billion around the year 1800. The exponential
population growth we still see today was underway. The steady
increase in population provided enough manpower to develop
technologies and farming innovations that furthered growth. No
longer was the population at the mercy of disease or famine, thanks
to scientific progress. From about 1804 to 1927, global population

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doubled from 1 to 2 billion. The latest billion persons this century

were born in just the previous 10 years.
Lets take a fresh look at the population chart from Chapter 4:

The next billion persons is projected to be born in even less

time, though there are some signs that growth will plateau later this
century. The next decrease in population will not be because of
famine, disease, and war (although any of these could happen, too),
but because the cost and time required to raise children, and the
need to have children around the farm for work, will become
unnecessary or even prohibitive for many people.

DEEP DISTANCE From Point A to Point B

The Oregon Trail was a popular video game when computers

were just becoming available to the public in the 1970s. The most
successful version of the game later arrived in schools on the Apple
II in 1985. The game helped to raise awareness of the real Oregon
Trail in the United States which spanned from the Midwestern
state of Missouri to Willamette Valley in Oregon, about 3,500
kilometers (2,200 miles). Development of the Oregon Trail began

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around 1811; a half-century went by before it was completed and

used regularly.
At its peak use in the mid-1800s, more than 412,000 settlers,
traders, miners, and others used the trail to access rich farmlands
and growing towns along the Northwest coast. Traversing the trail
could take as long as 170 days, especially when traveling with
children and heavy cargo. If you were a pioneer exploring the Wild
West for farmland, the trail could be traversed in as little as 120
days. Today the journey is much safer and would take a few weeks
by bicycle, three days by car, and a brisk (though still arguably just
as uncomfortable) four hours by plane.
The trek was extremely dangerous, especially along the many
rivers that wagon parties had to cross. Wheel axles broke, people
fell off and were dragged under current, and frostbite often set in.
Illness was rife. Food had to be hunted and eaten on the spot before
it spoiled. Threats from Native Americans, bandits, or even other
wagon parties posed great challenges as well.
Initial expeditions and journeys into new lands are nearly
always full of peril, especially when the distances are long. As we
advance in our knowledge of the risks and ways to mitigate them,
not only is a safer path created for others to follow, but we also
speed up the voyage. Today, flying is the safest and the fastest way
to get from Missouri to Oregon. Every technological advance
humanity has made over the last two centuries has brought us one
step closer to that four-hour luxury we enjoy today, the elbow-to-
elbow flying sardine can.

Outer Space - A Vast New Frontier

Outer space provides a limitless new frontier for exploration.

The moon is the first stop on this amazing journey. The moon is
on average about 384,400 kilometers from Earth, or about 110
times the distance of the Oregon Trail. Apollo 11 reached lunar
orbit in 51 hours and 49 minutes.
Three days is just a long weekend, which doesnt sound so bad
for traveling to such a cool place as the moon, until you scale

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distances up. With current space travel technologies, it would take

about ten years to get to the furthest planet in the solar system
Neptune. The shortest distance between Earth and Neptune is 4.3
billion kilometers, which is a mind-boggling 1.2 million times
longer than the Oregon Trail. (When Earth and Neptune are on
opposite sides of the Sun, the distance between them is 4.7 billion
kilometers.) Without rest and at the modest pace of 25 kilometers
per hour (wagon speed), it would take a minimum of 19,635 years
to reach Neptune.
We are making rapid progress in permanently escaping Earths
gravity and colonizing at least the moon. The former Soviet Union,
the United States, China, Japan, The European Space Agency and
India have sent unmanned spacecraft to the moon, and about 20 of
them touched down on the lunar surface. The United States is the
only country that has sent manned spacecraft to the moon 6
times. A total of 12 men have walked on the moon.
The era of moon visits kicked off in 1959 when the Soviet
Union launched the Luna 2 spacecraft. Luna 2, or Lunik 2, was the
first object from Earth to touch down on the surface of another
body in space. It gathered basic scientific information about the
lunar surface, such as radiation levels, seismic activity,
magnetization, etc.
After a decade of sending machines to the moon, in 1969 the
United States spaceflight Apollo 11 successfully sent the first
humans. When Neil Armstrong and Edwin Buzz Aldrin stepped
foot on the surface of the moon, it was the first human footstep on
any body other than our home planet. Armstrong and Aldrin spent
about 135 minutes exploring the lunar landscape, observing and
collecting lunar material. The flag of the United States was also
firmly planted in the ground with the flag cloth unmoving for lack
of an atmospheric wind.
Neil Armstrongs famous words moved many to tears, as 530
million Earthlings watched him on television: Thats one small
step for a man, one giant leap for mankind.6
To this day, most of the rovers and other objects sent to the
moon still rest on the lunar surface in nearly the same condition as

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the day they arrived, principally due to the moon lacking a dense
enough atmosphere to weather them away. The only significant
change would be the flags and other markings on the rovers. Over
the years in direct sunlight, these markings would be bleached
white from the Suns ultraviolet radiation. Perhaps this is a fitting
outcome, since the moon is loved by all of humankind, not just the
particular countries able to plant their flag upon its surface.
Travel distances to the moon and other planets in the solar
system is trivial though when compared to interstellar distances.
The vastness of space is unfathomably enormous. Let us
nevertheless try to fathom it.
Light travels at a speed of 299,792,458 meters per second.
Thats 186,000 miles per second, 671 million miles per hour, or
1,080 million kilometers per hour. This is fast enough to go around
Earth 7.5 times in a single second. Now, if light can go that far in
a second, imagine how far it can travel in a year. The answer is an
astounding 9,460,730,472,580,800 meters, 9.461 trillion
kilometers, or 5.878625 trillion miles. A light year is almost 10
trillion kilometers long!
There is debate about the length of the Milky Way, with
estimates falling between 100,000 light years and 180,000 light
years. Lets use the conservative estimate. Multiply 9.5 trillion
kilometers (the distance of one light year) by 100,000 light years
(the shortest length our galaxy is likely to be) and we get over
9,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kilometers!
With a galaxy at least this vast, chances are that Earth is not
the only place where life exists. But with distances between worlds
extreme, making contact with other civilizations seems a
monumental challenge, to say the least even if we could travel at
the speed of light.
Richard Garriott, famous video game developer and the first
private astronaut, had this to say to me about his views on the
vastness of outer space:
I was 47 years old before I finally made a complete
circumnavigation of our home planet. On October 12, 2008, I left
Earth aboard a Russian Soyuz and lived aboard it and the

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International Space Station for 12 days. Before this trip, I felt the
Earth was a huge place filled with innumerable people, places and
things. However, after seeing the Earth from space I experienced
The Overview Effect as many spacefarers do, and the Earth
become suddenly finite and small. In contrast, even with the
velocity of our fastest spacecraft, we have barely reached outside
our own solar system since the 1970s. Even at the speed of light
the nearest stars would be decades away. The nearest galaxies, so
unimaginatively far, that billions of years at light speed would be
required to traverse such distances. So, even having traveled faster
and farther than most other humans, even with the new sense of
scale garnered from such experiences. It seems to have only
deepened my sense of awe about the true scale of the visible
Universe, much less what infinite realities may exist beyond it. -
Richard Garriott (Soyuz TMA 13 / 1st Second Generation
Astronaut / Video Game Developer)
The Universe is so vast, and expanding at an ever faster rate,
that light at one end will never be able to reach the other end. It
would take roughly 93 billion years for light to travel this distance.
This fact becomes even more amazing when you consider that the
Universe is only 13.8 billion years old, and has trillions of years
left to expand ever larger.
Eventually, billions of years from now, all that may be visible
from Earth will be the immediate galaxy surrounding us, for
everything else will have receded away as the Universe continually
increases its expansion. All the other galaxies and any of their
inhabitants will view themselves in the same way. We are fortunate
to appear while the Universe is so young and revealing to us!

Theoretical Travel Possibilities

The proximity of the moon provides us with a perfect

opportunity to test many spaceflight technologies. Once a
permanent presence on the moon is established, we can use its
resources to reach even further into space. There is a lot to like
about the moon, such as its valuable helium-3. This version of

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helium does not occur in significant quantities on Earth, and it is

quite valuable for use in nuclear fusion research. If we could
harvest the moons helium-3, spacecraft could be powered locally.
Eventually the spacecraft could be built on the moon and sent to
other places in the solar system, such as onward to Mars.
A number of experimental propulsion technologies are
currently being tested in labs, such as advanced ion, nuclear fusion,
antimatter, and other futuristic engine designs that use exotic forms
of energy. Currently the most powerful would be an antimatter
drive. Antimatter is a form of matter with opposite charge. If it
comes into contact with matter, both forms are completely
destroyed and pure energy is produced. All forms of movement, or
work, require energy, but all end up losing some of that energy as
heat. Efficiency is never 100%, except when matter and antimatter
collide. If this process can be controlled, spacecraft speeds could
reach 20% the speed of light or more. At this speed, we could get
an unmanned spacecraft to Mars in about 15 minutes!
If an antimatter drive is possible, we could theoretically get to
the nearest solar system, Proxima Centauri, in about 40 years, if
we did not slow down to enter the orbit of any of its planets.7
An Alcubierre drive is a concept proposed by Miguel
Alcubierre and is similar to the warp drive described in numerous
science fiction stories, namely Star Trek.8 The drive would use
whats called negative energy to create a space bubble around the
ship. This protective bubble would squeeze space in front of the
ship and expand it in the back, thus propelling the ship forward.
Theoretically, the speeds achieved could be many times that of
light. You are still not violating the light speed limit because you
are not moving in space, but around it. Its a strange but important
distinction. The Alcubierre drive lies within the realm of the
theoretical, but apparently it doesnt violate any laws of physics,
and is mathematically consistent throughout its design.
Using the theoretical Alcubierre drive, we could get to Proxima
Centauri in a matter of just a few days. Journeying across the
galaxy would still take many years, but it would be in the realm of
an individuals lifetime.

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Then there are wormholes, which are also mathematically

possible, but they are just as deep in theoretical territory as the
Alcubierre drive. As fascinating as these concepts are to suggest,
we should probably remain skeptical about what the Universe both
contains and allows us to use. We just dont know where the actual
boundaries lie yet.

THE GREAT COSMIC OCEAN

The Universe has existed for 13.8 billion years, with the Milky
Way nearly as old at 13.2 billion years. Yet our solar system is only
4.6 billion years old. Life had billions of years to evolve on other
worlds in the galaxy before Earth was a newly formed molten ball
of rock. Many scientists believe that our galaxy, at its current age,
is very young; it will live on for many, many more billions of years.
Peter Behroozi, lead researcher at the Space Telescope Science
Institute, thinks that because there is so much gas and dust left to
create new star systems, most habitable planets and their parent
stars have yet to be born.
Long after our Sun dies out 5.5 billion years from now, new
stars will be born that will last for billions, perhaps trillions, of
years. When the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies merge, bouts
of star formation will occur. (This new galaxy is being called
Milkomeda although I prefer Andromilky.) Stars trillions of
years from now will still be born deep in the bowels of this new
galaxys final star factories.
Just like how stars are born, and then die, the Universe itself
has an age limit. About 1040 years after the last stars burn out,
which is trillions upon trillions of years from now, the very atomic
structures that matter is made up of will fall apart and cease to
exist. The only thing that will remain is a uniformly thin form of
energy no stars, no planets, no dust, and no gas. The Universe
will settle into such a low-energy state that, for all intents and
purposes, it will be dead. This ultimate end to existence is a theory
known as the heat death of the Universe, and the final chapter of
our cosmic story as far as we know.

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CHAPTER 9: IS ANYBODY OUT

THERE?
In very different ways, the possibility that the Universe is
teeming with life, and the opposite possibility that we are alone,
are equally exciting. Either way, the urge to know more about the
Universe seems to me irresistible, and I cannot imagine that
anybody of truly poetic sensibility could disagree.
- Richard Dawkins

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Despite all that we have come to know about the Universe,

there is still so much left to understand about the probability of life
elsewhere. There are many unknowns yet to explore, and surely
just as many that we cant even imagine, but we can start with what
we know about Earth and the solar system to hypothesize. The
gaps in our knowledge are being filled in with new data all the
time, but scientists admit that there is a lot of uncertainty about
what we might yet find.
Other planetary systems discovered so far indicate that our
solar system is not the typical configuration of planets. In fact, we
have thus far detected no two similar systems. The Milky Way
contains a virtual zoo of various sizes, orbits, and compositions.
Some systems have massive Jupiter-sized exoplanets hugging their
parent stars, while many have multiple super-Earths. Others have
no asteroid belt at all, and at least one system we know of has a
massive asteroid belt many times greater in width than our own.
There are even some with four or more orbiting planets that could
fit within the orbit of Mercury!
Partly because planetary systems are so diverse and not of the
expected norm, detecting life on these other worlds is one of the
most challenging things humans have ever set out to accomplish.
Excitingly, we are just now developing the technology to detect
the gases in the atmospheres of exoplanets, which will tell us a lot
about any life on these worlds. Certain gases like oxygen and
methane, especially in combination, may indicate the presence of
life. Future generations of telescopes will greatly improve our
ability to make more detailed observations.
Detecting life's signatures on these worlds may be as far as our
technology will ever be able to provide. Because of the vast
distances involved, we may never know how alien life differs from
that on Earth. They may have a host of unique senses that dont
even exist on our planet. Life must conform to the laws of physics
and chemistry regardless of where it comes from though, so some
features are bound to be similar to creatures we visit at our local
zoo, while others are just as likely to be more different than our
wildest science fiction stories can craft.

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THE DRAKE EQUATION

Frank Drake is an American astronomer and astrophysicist. He

was an early prodigy in the sciences, experimenting at school with
electronics and chemistry before most of his classmates cared
about such subjects. It was not long before he started to ask the
question, What are the chances of there being intelligent life
elsewhere in the galaxy? In 1960, he got the opportunity to try
and answer that question with Project Ozma, which was the first
attempt at detecting an alien signal.2 The project was an important
precursor to what would be called the Drake Equation.
Later in 1960, Drake started working on the Drake Equation,
though not quite in the way one would expect; it was more of a
curiosity at the time. Little did he know that it would become the
de facto standard for calculating the theoretical chance of life and
civilizations elsewhere.
The Drake Equation is not as intimidating as you might expect.
There are no charts or endless pages of formulae. Instead, the entire
equation is composed of just seven factors on a single line. You
get a result by multiplying all of the factors. Thats it! Well start
with the best understood factors and work our way to those yet to
be quantified.

Analyzing Drakes Equation

N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L
N - Number of technological civilizations in the Milky Way

R* - Rate of star formation per year

fp - Fraction of those stars that have planets
ne- Number of habitable planets, per star that has planets1
fl - Fraction of those planets that go on to develop life
fi - Fraction of life-bearing planets that develop intelligent life
fc - Fraction of those intelligent life forms that emit signals into space
L - Length of time the civilization continues to emit signals

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R*
R* is the first value and the part of the equation that is best
understood by astrophysicists. R* is the average number of new
stars born in the galaxy each year. Drake originally estimated this
number to be 1, but later he suggested it could be as high as 10.
Today NASA says this turns out to be a healthy 7. That may not
sound like a lot, but keep in mind that the Milky Way has existed
for about 13.2 billion years, and star formation was much more
active in the first few billion years after the galaxy formed.

fp
fp is the second factor and one we are just now able to calculate
fairly accurately, thanks to observations made using the Kepler
Space Telescope. This factor is the number of the existing stars
that have planets. It was once thought to be anywhere from 10% to
as high as a half of all stars. Astronomers used to believe that
planets could not form around binary stars (star systems that have
more than one star), which comprise nearly 50% of all stars in the
Milky Way. Since exoplanets have been discovered, it has been
found that nearly all stars, binary pairs or not, have at least one
planet orbiting them.

ne
The third factor, ne, considers how many planets are capable of
supporting life. To support life, a planet must orbit within the stars
habitable zone. It also must orbit a star that lasts long enough for
life to have time to develop. Additionally, the planet needs to be of
the right size and composition. All of these pieces of the puzzle are
jammed into ne, which narrows our final estimate significantly.
Were also neck-deep into the realm of uncertainty here, but not
yet drowning in ignorance, thanks again to the Kepler Space
Telescope and other tools. With more than 3,000 planets
confirmed by KST, and thousands more candidate signatures that

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are being confirmed as planets, its beginning to look like there is

a significant number of habitable worlds out there!

fl
Now we get to factor fl the fraction of habitable planets on
which life actually does evolve. This is where we cross from
uncertain to the completely unknown. Scientists have spent years
refining estimates of how often this might occur, but we have no
actualities. Thus far, we only know of one confirmed habitable
planet with life on it Earth. Drake thought the fraction was 1, or
100% of habitable planets would develop life, though this is
unlikely given the limits we see within our own solar system.
Even if the chance of a habitable planet hosting life is at 100%,
planets that only can host a few microbes and never anything more
interesting do not titillate us; were interested in whether a planet
has a chance of spawning an intelligent civilization. Mars may very
well be able to host microbes, but clearly not anything that can
walk and talk.

fi
fi takes into account how many life-bearing planets will go on
to develop intelligent life. We are back to having a bit more
understanding, based on evolution and the laws of nature as they
have played out on Earth. The rarity of intelligence on our own
planet might suggest that evolving an intelligent brain is unlikely,
but Drake was very confident that if there was complex life on a
planet, an intelligent creature would evolve, if given enough time.
I tend to agree with him here.

fc
Once there are thinking beings that can manipulate their
environment, they will likely gain the ability one day to create a
radio antenna and say hello to the rest of the Universe. Exceptions

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would include water worlds or some other physically, but not

intellectually, restrictive environment.
There could be billions of planets hosting life with millions of
civilizations huddling around campfires, or swimming on their
water worlds, occasionally peering up at the sky in wonder. That
doesnt do us any good in learning about them. To learn about far-
off worlds, we need them to either develop signal technology, and
to emit detectable signals, or to alter their planets atmosphere
sufficiently for us to detect industrial pollutants. This would help
us gauge what technologies they have, and by extension how
advanced they are in comparison to us.

L
L is the amount of time a civilizations ability to send signals
into space lasts. As outlined in Chapter 5: A House of Cards,
numerous disaster scenarios can befall a civilization during its
development. Nuclear war has come close to destroying our own
world a number of times, and weve only had nuclear weapons for
less than a century. Drake suggests a rather wide range for factor
L: on the low end, a healthy 1,000 years and on the upper end, a
fantastically generous 100 million years.

Here are the values that Drake used:

R* = 1/year (1 stars formed per year; this was regarded as conservative)

fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have 1 to 5 planets capable of life)
fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000-100,000,000 years (ability to emit signals will last this long)

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N
Lets multiply Drakes factors and see what the product, N, is.

N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

The equation with Drakes lowest values:

N = 1 x 0.2 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 0.1 x 1,000

N = 20

The equation with Drakes highest values:

N = 1 x 0.5 x 5 x 1 x 1 x 0.2 x 100,000,000

N = 50,000,000

According to Drakes estimates, there are between 20 and 50

million intelligent communicative civilizations. Try the equation
out with your own numbers!

DETECTING ANOTHER CIVILIZATION

Sending a Signal

Sending out radio transmissions is one of the easiest ways to

send information long-distance. Advantages of radio signals
include that they are detectable far beyond conventional human
senses, if the transmitter and receiver are both powerful enough.
Radio transmissions can be sent in many directions at once,
reaching thousands of stars. Also, it should be clear to intelligent
civilizations that the radio signal is from an intelligent source.
Elements on the periodic table have their own associated
electromagnetic absorption frequencies. These frequencies will be
consistent for every element, wherever they are found throughout
the Universe. Hydrogen is the most common element and it has a
radio frequency of 1420.4~ MHz. Using the frequency of the most
common element in the Universe in our radio transmissions will
greatly increase the chances for a listening civilization to pick up
the signal amongst the many other frequencies available.

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Deciding what we ought to send to an alien civilization

intrigues astronomers. Many think we should specify how far
humanity has progressed scientifically and technologically; a
receiving civilization will be able to understand a lot more about
us if they have a grasp of how far along the technological ladder
we are. As explained in Chapter 4: The Engine of Modern
Civilization, because it is difficult to advance technologically, in
that it requires intelligence and cooperation, our state of
advancement will indicate that we have some altruistic goals that
would appeal to any aliens interested in contact.
Showing our technological prowess can be done by sending
mathematical proofs, like Fermats Last Theorem, chemical
formulae, such as complex man-made ones, or our discoveries in
physics, like the Higgs boson. All of these would be encoded in
the radio wave sent out into deep space, much like how a complex
message can be sent with Morse code.
There are panels of scientists at conferences each year that
discuss what kind of message makes the most sense to send. One
prominent event is Exoplanets, Biosignatures, & Instruments
(EBI). At the conference they discuss whether we should send only
information about the scientific features of our culture, or
information about everything that makes us who we are as humans.
The concern with sending information about our entire culture,
including our fictional and artistic creations, is that the aliens may
misinterpret the message. They may not understand where our
science ends and our art begins; they may not know our fact from
our fiction.
Being detected by an alien civilization is actually a worry in
the eyes of some scientists, like Stephen Hawking, who suggest
that our signals could be received not by a benevolent race, but by
an aggressive one, like the ones portrayed in the movies
Independence Day, War of the Worlds, and the humorous Mars
Attacks! The aliens may wish to exploit or even entirely destroy
us. For this reason, it is important that we be proactive in
developing our own listening programs. Although listening is a
giant step toward understanding the true intentions of other

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civilizations, the question that follows is: will we be able to decode

their message?

Detecting a Signal

For approximately the last hundred years, human activity has

caused radio signals to be emitted from Earth into deep space in all
directions. These signals have been spreading out ever farther
indiscriminately, without any intention of their being received by
other civilizations. So far, these signals from our planet have
passed all of the stars that are within a 100-light year radius. For
now, we have yet to detect any artificial signals, let alone one
intended as a response to our own transmissions.
According to SETI, these indiscriminate signals become
extremely weak after traveling just a few light years. The physics
of the degradation of these signals should be familiar to us. A rock
dropped in a pond causes a series of propagating waves. The
farther the waves travel through the water, the weaker they
become. Eventually they become so weak that they are
indistinguishable from other waves of the pond. If there were
aliens with our level of technology on a planet orbiting the nearest
star to our Sun, it is not likely that they would pick up Earths
indiscriminate signals only directed signals that lose little power
and that we intentionally send would be strong enough for nearby
alien civilizations to pick up.
Whatever type of equipment is used to detect alien
transmissions, it is going to need to be sensitive enough to pick up
signals that were sent from hundreds, if not thousands, of light
years away, and consequently, that many years ago in time.
Since intelligent civilizations appear to be rare at first glance,
astronomers need to be extremely discriminatory about which stars
they try to detect a signal from. Its not as simple as just pointing
a giant satellite dish at the entire sky and receiving all of the
signals, with the hope of detecting an intelligent source. If we did
that, what we would get is a lot of background noise, including

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natural radio waves, and plenty of false hits that originate from our
own satellites or the surface of Earth.
Radio waves are so wide that they can span many kilometers.
Building one gigantic dish to detect them is expensive and
impractical. Smaller dishes are cheaper to build, and they can be
spaced apart to capture the enormous waves. Each small dish
detects part of the wave, and then scientists piece it all together
using computers at a base station.
The Alan Telescope Array (ATA), a joint effort by the SETI
Institute and Radio Astronomy Laboratory (RAL) at the University
of California at Berkeley, detects radio signals in this manner.
Operations began in 2012 with 42 radio dishes the system now
has 350 dishes. Easy expandability is another benefit of building
an array.
What have we detected with the ATA so far? Nothing
intelligent, but this is not surprising, given the low chances of a
nearby civilizations signal coming in at the moment we point our
antennas toward them. The ATAs goal is to monitor up to one
million stars out to about 1,000 light years from Earth. For signals
that may be coming from further distances, more than a billion
stars are within the arrays listening field, if those signals are sent
with sufficient power.

Atmospheric Signatures

Aside from detecting aliens by their radio transmissions, there

are several other proposed means of direct detection. Modulated
laser light pointed at us would be an indicator that aliens were
trying to say hello, as this type of light is not found in nature.
Discovering megastructures built in outer space would be another
giveaway. Pollutants in an alien atmosphere would also point to an
industrialized world. In fact, the more atmospheric pollutants
detected, the younger the civilization is likely to be. It wouldnt be
surprising for alien civilizations to also industrialize as we have on
Earth; that is, we started using fuel that came with polluting by-

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products, and then moved on to cleaner technologies as we

advanced in science.
Another way that we could tell that a civilization is
intentionally trying to get our attention would be if we detected the
blocking of a stars light. The process of blocking all or nearly all
of the light of a star would be a significant engineering feat,
indicating perhaps a Dyson Sphere or a Dyson Swarm. (A Dyson
Sphere would be a single object, and a Dyson Swarm would be
composed of millions of individual pieces). Imagine building an
array of solar panels that encircles the entire Sun! Anything on
engineering scales like encapsulating a star would leave a unique
signature that we could detect.
As of late 2016, only one star has been identified that exhibits
a tantalizing signature that vaguely keeps open the suggestion of
the presence of an advanced civilization. The discovery is believed
to be a massive cloud of large comets, or possibly a recent collision
between two large planets, but an alien civilizations influence has
yet to be ruled out.
We have the tools to both send and receive signals and
presumably every other civilization of a similar technological level
will as well. Why, then, have we not detected any alien
transmissions yet? Why have we not been visited by these
supposed alien civilizations? Where are they?

THE FERMI PARADOX WHERE IS EVERYBODY?

Italian physicist Enrico Fermi asked in an informal chat over

lunch in 1950 with other physicists, Where is everybody?
The question has been asked as long as humans have known
that space is filled with so much more than seemingly nearby
twinkling lights, and the question boggles the minds of
astronomers to this day. When Fermi asked the famous question,
scientists thought that there should be countless civilizations in
nearby space, and at least some should be easily detectable.
The question by Fermi became known as the Fermi Paradox.
Fermi and his colleagues considered it a conundrum that if

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intelligent life in the Universe should be, based on their

observations, plentiful, then why had we not already made contact
with anyone? We know that there are billions of stars in the Milky
Way, and at least 10% of those stars are sun-like. According to
data from the Keck Observatory and the Kepler Space Telescope,
20% of sun-like stars have an earth-sized planet in the habitable
zone. With this in mind, we may suppose that there could be
millions of civilizations in our galaxy alone!
The mediocrity principle states that any single item selected at
random from a set of items, such as any given star selected at
random from a set of stars, will likely be a more common item in
the set than a rarer item. For example, 70% of all stars in the galaxy
are M-dwarfs. The mediocrity principle suggests that if we
randomly selected a star, it would likely be an M-dwarf. The same
goes for planets like our own and, by extension, life and
civilization. Since we know that Earth exists, then it is reasonable
to assume that our planet is not of the rarest category, and neither
are we as intelligent creatures inhabiting it. Moreover, it becomes
unreasonable to assume that we are alone in the Universe.
The only obvious caveat to this principle is that Earth and all
of its life is but just one sample. You can never gauge the true
prominence of anything on a single sample, other than to simply
know that it is possible for it to have occurred at least once.
Is life and the evolution of intelligent creatures then a freak
occurrence in the cosmos? Statistical probabilities alone beyond
the mediocrity principle tell us that planets with life and, by
extension, intelligent civilizations, should be scattered throughout
the Universe. Life then should not be a freak occurrence, even if it
is still a statistically rare one.
If statistical probabilities demand life to exist elsewhere, and
the principle of mediocrity applies to life, then, indeed, where is
everybody?
While the majority of civilizations may never make it out of
their planetary system, or even off their planet, some of them
should have. Humans on Earth have shown that it is possible to
achieve space travel. We also know enough about physics and

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space to suggest that interstellar travel is not impossible. Amongst

the intelligent lifeforms in the Universe, humans, it ought to be
presumed, are of average intelligence; if this is so, then it follows
that aliens of greater intelligence should be able to travel between
the stars. Space is vast, but Fermi and others thought that with
technological prowess that far outweighs our own, some alien
civilizations should have been able to tour the Milky Way many
times already.
There are many theories about why we have not yet detected
an alien civilization, but we can divide the theories into two
groups: detection and existence. That civilizations are out there
and we have simply failed to detect them is one possibility it is
quite another to realize that there may be none out there at all, at
least at the present time. There may be an insurmountable progress
barrier that stops them (and eventually us) from advancing far
enough to be detected.

The Detection Conundrum

Could the Universe be home to a collection of civilizations, the

likes of which are depicted in Star Trek or Star Wars, where aliens
meet informally all the time?
In Star Trek, humans obey what they call the Prime Directive,
which forbids their meddling with the development of other
civilizations, at least the lesser advanced ones. Could it be that
Earthlings cannot detect alien civilizations because the aliens have
resolved to leave us alone, at least until weve achieved a certain
level of development?
Other reasons that alien civilizations may be numerous but
undetectable include that they are xenophobic they may fear
others and may hide at the first sign of potential contact.
Or it may be that they lack an interest in communicating with
others, and consequently they do not try to make themselves
detectable. There may be too much going on in their own planetary
system to focus attention away from it, and other systems are
simply too far away to pay attention anyway.

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A worrying possibility is that the more advanced civilizations

can get around the galaxy quite easily and are exploiting the lesser
advanced ones for their resources... then destroying those worlds
after their usefulness has expired. And it could be that Earth is next
in line.
There is another fascinating and slightly less terrifying
possibility. Earth may have just been missed because were in
some galactic suburb that no other civilizations care or can explore.
This is doubtful, though. Even at our present level of technology,
we are beginning to tell which planetary systems out there have
potentially habitable planets. The latest generation of telescopes
are already peering into the atmospheres of exoplanets thousands
of light years away. It could well be that it is only a matter of time
before they peer into the atmosphere of a life-filled planet, adding
it to a growing catalog of worlds to visit one day.
A final possibility is that civilizations are simply unable to
detect each other ever. We may be so far apart from each other
spatially that radar communication is just not feasible, especially
given the power requirements at both the sending and receiving
ends. Even our most powerful transmitters would struggle to send
a signal a few dozen light years away. Signal strength drops off
exponentially as it travels; hence, signals being sent our way may
arrive in such a weak state that they are easily missed when our
scientists attempt to listen. Its like trying to pick out one voice
across a crowded and loud concert hall, whilst unable to see the
person you are hoping to hear.
With advances in observation techniques, we may soon be able
to confirm a civilization living on a planet, independent of its
ability to communicate technologically. Astronomers are
examining what biosignatures would confirm that a planet has life,
especially signs that an advanced society has altered its planets
atmosphere. It will be trickier though to detect any civilization that
hasnt yet polluted its planet, or that perhaps has long since passed
a stage of significantly altering its planets biosphere in a
detectable way.

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The Existence Conundrum

The existence conundrum considers the problem of

civilizations existing for long enough to be detected; it also
includes the possibility that there are no others whatsoever.
According to the Rare Earth Hypothesis, as explained by
scientists Peter Ward and Donald E. Brownlee in Rare Earth: Why
Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe (2000), life akin to
that which we find on our planet is likely to be exceedingly rare in
the Universe. They argue, in contrast to Drake, that complex life
like ours is rare because the conditions on Earth that fostered the
beginnings of life are rare. They maintain that for life to have
begun and developed, many factors needed to be perfect; the right
place in a galaxy, the right type of star and the right distance from
it, with the right arrangement of planets and the right size moon,
and the right rate of plate tectonics, among many other factors.
If we could watch the Universes entire 13.8 billion-year
history play out, we might see civilizations occasionally popping
up at different times and in far off galaxies, lasting for as little as a
few decades to perhaps hundreds of thousands of years, and then
disappearing for one of a multitude of reasons.
Our cosmic story might be analogous to how ships thousands
of years ago never crossed paths on a seemingly infinite ocean. If
they never crossed paths, they did not know that other ships were
out there. They might wonder if there were other ships, but as they
had never seen any, they did not know for sure. Imagine one of
these ships drifting by another in the middle of the night when the
crew is asleep then the crew awakens at dawn and their chance
encounter with the passing ship is lost forever. Currently humanity
is wide awake and listening. How long it can keep its eyes open
though is uncertain.

THE GREAT FILTER

The Great Filter was first proposed in an essay by economist

Robin Hanson in 1996.3 The Great Filter suggests that civilizations

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do come about, perhaps frequently, but as they become more

complex through the development of dangerous technologies, the
chances increase that they will go extinct. Their demise occurs by
self-destruction or through some sort of natural disaster, Hanson
proposes. The Great Filter is one gloomy and saddening answer to
why we have no evidence for the existence of alien civilizations,
and what may become of ours in the not-too-distant future.
Building a technological civilization has its perils and, just as
with life itself, is never everlasting. Its clear from past
civilizations on Earth that they die out far too soon to colonize
space. Today humanity is finally at the cusp of being able to do so,
but only after thousands of years of floundering on Earth. Even if
we are one of the few civilizations that manages to get past the
Great Filter and live for thousands of years in a grand, solar
system-wide society, we may still not last long enough for us to
discover aliens doing the same.
If we have already successfully made it through the Great Filter
that prevents every other civilization from ever becoming
advanced enough to do the same, then we appear to be very
exceptional. In fact, the chances increase greatly that humanity is
the first sentient race to advance to our technological level in
perhaps the whole history of the Universe. The implication for
other forms of life out there is that they failed to progress as far as
we have before being destroyed.
If we have not yet been confronted with the Great Filter, then
humanitys prospects look much more bleak. One or more of the
filters grim scenarios could still be up ahead in our future, perhaps
coming very soon, as Chapter 5: A House of Cards suggests.
Putting it another way, none of the scenarios presented in Chapter
5 are impossible in the near future.

HIGHLIGHTING LIKELY FILTERS

There are many scenarios that could be identified as filters that

extinguish a civilization. Many disasters have been observed
repeatedly in Earths past already and are well understood. This

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section addresses potential civilization-ending scenarios, but we

will skip the natural disasters, as Chapter 5 already covered them.

Technological Self-Destruction

Ironically, once life reaches a certain level of intelligence and

gains accompanying technological know-how to save itself from
disasters, its chances of destroying itself shoot right up. If a
civilization has the technology to emit signals into outer space, it
almost certainly has the technology to annihilate itself.
We must presume that humans are of average intelligence and
emotional control, with an average likelihood of self-destruction
compared to any alien civilization. Thus a significant fraction of
intelligent life will inevitably self-destruct, and the rest will be
snuffed out by a natural disaster. A combination of scenarios is
also just as likely. Whether aliens kill themselves off or are killed
off by a natural disaster, there is sadly great risk of their
civilizations collapsing before being able to find others in the
Universe with which to communicate.
Humanity has come extremely close to being set back to the
Stone Age on more than one occasion, mainly through nuclear war.
With so many chances of destroying ourselves, or being destroyed
by a natural disaster, 200 years of sending out signals suddenly
seems like a long time.
Even if civilizations survive for many thousands of years, the
chances of a civilizations lifetime coinciding temporally with
another are very, very low, given the mind-boggling age of the
Universe. At least when considering us squishy biological
organisms and our exceedingly brief lifetimes.

Our Successor: Artificial Intelligence

In 1975, Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel, projected that

computing power would double about every two years. This was
called Moores law. Although not technically a law, it was
Moores projection of how many transistors an integrated circuit

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would be able to accommodate. Processing speeds have been

increasing exponentially ever since the first commercially
available CPU, the Intel 4004, launched in 1971. In just 45 years
since the processors release, computing power has increased by
more than 3,500 times. The processor in a typical cell phone today
is more powerful than even a household computer was just ten
years ago.
The Intel 4004 could calculate numbers in seconds that would
take hours or even days to do by hand. In the late 1970s, the first
graphics-based games came to market, taking advantage of
processor speeds many times that of the Intel 4004. Fast forward a
few decades and we are on the verge of achieving speeds where
computer generated virtual realities begin to blur the line between
what is real and what is not.
As virtual reality environments are being developed, to be
experienced on headsets like the Oculus Rift, Vive, and Project
Morpheus, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is quickly becoming
necessary to manage them. The first part of the term, Artificial,
indicates a created construct, which tends to mean that its built of
metal, wires, plastics, and all sorts of, well, artificial things. There
are also many things that are artificial and dont do anything active
by themselves, such as artificial plants to decorate ones home, or
an artificial waterway that better routes heavy rains around a citys
flood-prone river.
The second part of the term, Intelligence, focuses on how
that artificial construct is able to react to stimuli, as opposed to
being inert. An artificial construct that has the capability of making
value judgments, deciding and then being able to implement a
course of action without direct human intervention can be said to
have some expression of intelligence.
There is growing concern that the more processing power
increases, the greater the chances become for self-aware AI to
emerge that, through its own self-improvement, will attain a
runaway-intelligence, the likes of which humans will be unable to
control or comprehend. This event is called the singularity. The

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concern is what the motives would be for such an ultra-intelligent

and likely self-preserving entity.
Both Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla Motors, and
Stephen Hawking, physicist and cosmologist at Cambridge
University, have suggested that artificial intelligence is not only
inevitable as the next step in our evolution, but also it could be the
downfall of humanity. They take a very pessimistic view of what
AI will do once it has a better plan than the comparatively slow-
thinking primates currently managing the planet. Especially
without an innate sense of morals that favor living creatures, AI
may very well decide that it can do better than we can, and remove
us as the first part of improving planetary conditions for itself.
Harlan Jay Ellison (1934-Present) pioneered and helped to
craft many of the great AI and robotic stories weve come to know.
Ellison worked with great writers like Isaac Asimov to develop
stories like I, Robot, a sci-fi magazine series, which was later
adapted as a screenplay in 2004s I, Robot, starring Will Smith.
Ellison was quite controversial as a writer, often criticism others
works when Ellison thought he had a better idea. He even accused
James Cameron of stealing the idea to the Terminator movies.
In the Terminator movies, AI becomes spontaneously self-
aware. It takes a brief look around and decides that the existing
human population should be done away with. The AI begins to
shut down global communications all phone, radio, internet and
emergency response networks are destroyed. It then proceeds to
take over military installations, disabling all vehicles and aircraft.
Once humanitys ability to take action has been neutralized, the AI
unleashes a massive nuclear strike on major cities, finishing off
what remains of our civilization.
Depictions of humanity being brushed aside by machines are
numerous. A more space-faring example are the Cylons in the
television series, Battlestar Galactica. Cylons are a machine race
that humanity brought into being when AI was first being
developed on the twelve exoplanet colonies depicted in the show.
In the opening episode, humans are seen as a prosperous race with
millions or even billions of persons inhabiting each of the colonies.

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A vast interplanetary transportation system between the colonies

kept trade and communications secure. Cylons were assisting
humanitys needs in every corner of society.
Life was hard before the Cylons were constructed. They were
built to assist with many manual labor tasks. (Instead of the
colonies using their brethren as slaves, they engineered slaves.)
Eventually the Cylons were used for more than just physical labor;
they went on to teach, perform scientific research, and even
command the militarys most sensitive installations. The colonies
made the mistake of making the robots too smart, though. They
soon rebelled against their masters. A war broke out that lasted for
years, before the Cylons were banished into the depths of space.
Decades went by without a word from the Cylons, until they
suddenly came back with a ferocity that decimated the twelve
colonies. Without mercy, the Cylons disabled every ship and space
station in their path. Upon reaching the first colony, Caprica, the
Cylons set off massive nuclear bombs, of humanity's own making,
destroying every major city and all its inhabitants. Within days, the
Cylons reduced the entire twelve-colony population from billions
to a matter of a few thousand refugees desperately attempting to
flee the rampage of the Cylons.
There are far fewer examples in science fiction of AI being a
positive influence, though this is (hopefully) more of a Hollywood
preference than a probable outcome. The ironic part about AI is
that it may be our saving grace. This was hinted at in Chapter 4:
The Engine of Modern Civilization. The ultimate in technological
breakthroughs is not going to be a cyborg a hybrid of human and
machine but an artificial being capable of self-replicating and
advancing its own agenda without the need for humans to assist.
What it does with itself after, though, is an open question.
Regardless of whether or not AI ends up destroying us and
running the show itself, or brings about an age of prosperity, it will
certainly be AI that leads the way into space. Weve already sent
up thousands of machines into space with few adverse results.
Many will remain in orbit around Earth for millions of years,
though non-functional at that point. The probes and satellites that

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weve sent up so far, though, are just toys in comparison to a full-

fledged AI machine, but the process of construction and
deployment would be similar.
When we are ready to explore beyond our solar system, AI has
distinct advantages over human beings. Electronics like computer
processors and electromagnetic detectors suffer none of the health
problems caused by being in space that humans suffer, such as
oxygen deprivation and low-gravity muscle atrophy. They are also
not as sensitive to temperature changes. Waste management is not
an issue, and electronics do not experience emotions, like
homesickness and downright boredom. Humans also have short
lifespans. AI would not be as susceptible to these problems, which
instantly grants AI the top spot for what should be sent on long-
term deep space missions.

Fatigue and Lack of Motivation

How will humanity view the Universe after it has explored it

for thousands of years? Even though weve discovered unique
properties throughout the Milky Way everywhere we look, at large
scales, the Universe becomes quite homogeneous. Every object,
including galaxies, nebulae, and the gas and dust that fill the void
between these objects, is eventually found in similar form
elsewhere. For instance, our galaxy is a larger version of most
spiral galaxies, but a typical shape nonetheless that is found
billions of times elsewhere. From massive galaxies to tiny planets,
all objects are more or less repeated across the Universe, and this,
I feel, probably applies to life and civilization as well.
After understanding the workings of the Universe and chances
for life elsewhere, a civilization may no longer take interest in
continuing to explore what theyve found over and over again.
Exploration will continually show similar results, so the massive
effort to keep pushing forward may eventually be halted. They will
realize that resources could be better spent further refining their
society from the comfort of their own planetary system.

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Especially if a civilization gains the ability to simulate the

Universe on massive supercomputers, they may never need to
explore real space. Imagination through the ultimate virtual reality
system becomes the truly limitless frontier. Any world theyve
dreamt about could be created in such exquisite detail, it would be
indistinguishable from a real world, and completely safe. Why
exploring space beyond ones own solar system, when we can
recreate space and explore it virtually at no risk to ourselves?

The Vastness of Space and Time

The vastness of space, and the accompanying problem of how

much time it takes to cross it, may be the greatest filter of them all.
The previous chapter emphasized this phenomenal vastness by
presenting practically incomprehensible numbers like a googol.
While we can conceive of the ability to colonize worlds in distant
planetary systems, the time necessary to reach even the nearest
systems could be a roadblock no civilization can or wishes to face.
Aside from the speed of light being a limit on how fast you
could travel, there is another side effect of approaching this speed
your kinetic energy increases. Mass doesnt literally increase in
that you dont gain more physical material. Instead, the mass that
you do have has a greater impact on anything it comes into contact
with. For example, a tiny fleck of paint traveling at just a few
thousand kilometers per hour has enough energy to crack the
windows on the International Space Station.
Lets say you are traveling at 20% the speed of light (about 216
million kilometers per hour) to get to the nearest star system, Alpha
Centauri. The trip would take at least twenty years, assuming you
didnt want to slow down to visit any nearby planets. While
traveling, an alien ship happens to be on its way to Earth, in your
direct path. You collide head-on. The energy created by the
collision would be equivalent to the force of a large nuclear
explosion. The faster the objects are traveling, the greater the
energy released by the collision will be.

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To be reasonably safe from every micro-particle or speck of

dust, travel would need to remain under 10% the speed of light.
The journey to Alpha Centauri would unfortunately take a good
portion of ones lifetime, but at least you would arrive in one piece.

MAKING IT THROUGH THE GREAT FILTER

As much as Im hammering home the point that advanced

civilizations are not likely to exist for long periods of time, the
assumption may be (hopefully) incorrect. This pessimistic view
may just be doubting how far they can progress; not how long they
last. Every civilizations power to grow may have a plateau.
NASA, SETI and other organizations have observed several
hundred thousand galaxies in order to determine if any of them
have advanced civilizations, and no evidence for them exists. Does
that mean those galaxies are devoid of them? Most likely not, but
it probably means that Kardashevs theorized super-advanced
Type II and Type III civilizations do not exist.
In this case, the conclusion to the Fermi Paradox for space
faring civilizations would then be that interstellar travel is
impractical even at the most advanced stages of technological
sophistication. Each civilization ends up living out its perhaps
millions of years of existence, forever prisoners within their home
system.
If humanity wishes to avoid this fate and explore other star
systems, it needs to secure economic, political and technological
stability the likes of which no civilization on Earth has yet
managed to attain. There needs to be long-term vision and
progress, with clearly defined goals that must be established and
agreed upon by the whole of society.
Lets say that the Great Filter gets surpassed by a few
civilizations, and one of those happens to live in a planetary system
near our own. There are two movie examples that have an
interesting contrast with each other in several areas to consider.
From our doomsday scenario checklist, lets select the more
pessimistic and outlandish scenario of alien domination.

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Contact Through Domination

Independence Day (1996) is about an alien civilization that

makes it through the filter and ends up visiting Earth, flaunting its
success in having been able to do so. The movie has become a
classic, with a sequel released exactly 20 years later.
An alien civilization, in a humongous mothership, beelines
straight for our planet in a no-holds-barred attempt to do away with
humans. This feat leaves Earthlings in awe; not only do the aliens
overcome several difficulties we would have in space travel, but
they do so with a good portion of their civilization in tow. Their
mothership is nearly a quarter the size of the moon (rather modest
compared to the moon-sized Death Star in Star Wars). As it enters
into orbit around Earth, dozens of smaller ships detach and begin
a descent into our atmosphere, each ship nearly as wide as an
average major city.
The ships wait for several hours in a seemingly unnecessary
need to use our own satellite system to coordinate their attack.
Global panic immediately ensues, gridlock prevents a quick escape
from the cities, and a few deluded humans take to the tallest
skyscrapers in the hopes of being beamed up and saved by the
aliens. The countdown clock reaches zero and the aliens attack all
the major cities in a spectacular fashion made possible only by
Hollywood magic.
The U.S. military attempts to fend off the attack, initially with
dismal failure. An Air Force captain and a former satellite
technician (now a TV cable guy) board a previously crashed alien
shuttle, fly it to the mothership and upload a computer virus to the
aliens database (apparently without concern for alien security
systems getting in the way). As they whiz out of the ship just as
the main gates close behind them, they release a nuclear bomb and
destroy said mothership, saving humanity. Earthlings all whoop
and cheer for joy.
Plausible? Sure. Likely, though? Quite unlikely.

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Contact Through Communication

Now for a much more reasonable, though still Hollywood-

themed, movie, Contact reveals the difficulty in detecting and
deciphering an alien signal. The movie also portrays one of the
most likely scenarios for detecting an alien civilization. First, the
team has to sift through all sorts of frequencies and star locations
to confirm a candidate signal. After detection is locked in, the
rotation of the Earth prevents a continuous feed, so the team calls
in astronomers from around the world to keep the link
uninterrupted. Deciphering the message takes months.
After several scenes of overplayed drama about what the signal
means, we discover that the signal contains instructions for
building a transport to another world, using wormholes. With great
cost, the machine is built. Up until this point the entire movie is
realistic and describes a lot of what we are already doing, complete
with political jockeying that comes with issues of funding and our
expectations of what happens when we do detect a signal.
The movie takes us on a ride through the wormhole as the main
actor, Dr, Eleanor Arroway (played by Jody Foster), lands on a
Florida-style beach in an alien world. This part of the movie is at
the heart of speculation, as we have no idea if wormholes even
exist outside of the mathematics that suggest their existence. The
idea is still tantalizing to consider. Because space and time are so
grand in scale, something like a wormhole may be the only thing
that allows for interstellar travel.
Most of the people monitoring the transport machine were
convinced that she never left Earth. The time dilation of the
wormhole was so extreme that to everyone else, the trip was
instantaneous. Yet to the traveler, 18 hours had gone by. Quite
inconveniently, the recording devices she brought with her only
recorded static. Because it seemed to the scientists that she had not
gone anywhere, they doubted her story of having traveled through
the wormhole. Later, two government officials confided that it was
interesting that the static they had recorded lasted exactly 18 hours.

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The movie ends with the words For Carl on the screen. How
we love Carl Sagan!

NEW EQUATIONS ARE NEEDED

Perhaps the best argument for our not being the only
civilization in the Universe lies simply in the numbers and
statistical probabilities. If there are at least a hundred billion stars
in the Milky Way galaxy, and at least a hundred billion galaxies in
the Universe, is it not absurd to believe that we are the only
civilization? Lets analyze this idea further.
The Drake Equation served well as a thought experiment for
estimating the chances of life and civilization elsewhere in at least
our galaxy. Today astrophysicists know a lot more than they did in
the 1960s. What would an alternative, updated equation include?
While recently there have been other proposed equations, I have
laid out my own below that builds upon Drakes, and seeks to solve
for how many intelligent civilizations have existed in the history
of our galaxy.

My Suggested Alternate Equation with Estimates:

250 Billion: Number of stars in the Milky Way*

20%: Fraction of stars that live long enough to host life

40%: Fraction with relatively stable galactic orbits

70%: Fraction hosting planets of some kind

40%: Fraction with an Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone**

70%: Fraction of those planets that have land areas

40%: Fraction of planets with enough metals for technological needs

30%: Fraction of planets that can support life for at least a billion years

60%: Fraction that form complex life in a stable environment

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30%: Fraction where life eventually becomes intelligent

60%: Fraction of intelligent creatures that physically can use tools

70%: Fraction of intelligent beings that build a civilization

80%: Fraction of civilizations that advance to radio communication

technology or beyond

*One factor I did not include from the Drake Equation is the
average number of new stars born in the Milky Way each year. I
dont consider this as a very useful factor. A more pertinent factor
than how many new stars appear is the amount of stars that
currently exist in the galaxy. Life can last for billions of years, so
the rate of new star production is going to be much less meaningful
than the total number of stars that have lived a good fraction of the
age of the galaxy itself. Estimates range from 100-400 billion stars,
so we will use 250 billion.
**Although most experts put this percentage at 20%, there is
good reasons to think it will be higher. With the latest telescopes
and other new technology, we are quickly coming to understand
that Earth- and super-Earth-sized worlds are among the most
common planets. Were finding multi-planet systems all the time
now, and many with planets in the habitable zone.
So heres our equation in fraction form:
250 billion x .2 x .4 x .7 x .4 x .7 x .4 x .3 x .6 x .3 x .6 x .7 x
.8 = 28,449,792
This equation suggests that at some point in the Milky Ways
history and near future, approximately 29 million civilizations
with radio technology should be produced.
Now, if we multiply the amount of civilizations by the average
time a civilization with radio communication survives, we will get
the total amount of years during which such civilizations will exist.
How long do radio-communicating civilizations last, before
destroying themselves, setting themselves back in technology
through error (or on purpose) or by some natural event? If we base
the average on how long humanity has been using radio technology

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(about 100 years) and how many times humanity has already
risked catastrophic disaster, I think 200 years is generous.
29,000,000 x 200 = 5.7 billion years of total existence time for
all civilizations.
Let us now try to nail down when life could have first possibly
arisen in the galaxy. Remember that the first generation of stars
were devoid of heavy metals, and thus no orbiting planets would
have been around those stars. It would take a few generations of
stars, and a few hundred million years, before planet formation
could begin in earnest. Add to that the time it takes for life to
evolve from a single-celled organism to a civilization with radio
technology, and we can estimate that such a civilization could not
have existed before the Universe was about 5 billion years old.
Deduct this first 5 billion years from the age of the Universe,
13.8 billion years, and we know that our 29 million civilizations
existed in the last, roughly, 9 billion years.
If all civilizations lived during this period and at spread out
times, with no two existing at the same time, then the maximum
amount of time over which they existed is 5.7 billion years.
We then take 9 billion years 5.7 billion years = 3.3 billion
years, minimum, when there were not technological civilizations.
How many such civilizations existed per year then?
5.7 billion / 9 billion = .6 civilizations with radio technology
per year, on average, and at a maximum with that average. There
is more time than civilizations in existence, including if no two
civilizations ever exist at the same time. This should exquisitely
highlight the problem of two civilizations ever meeting each other.
These are just some of the conclusions we can come to, based
on my equation. You might want to create your own equation with
updated statistics of the factors as they come about. Here are some
other factors that would help refine our search:

Fraction of stars with minimal flaring (referring to the stars stability)

Fraction of habitable planets with a low orbital eccentricity (how

circular the orbit is)

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Fraction of planets with a stable tilt (stabilized with a large moon)

Fraction of planets with a sufficiently thin and oxygenated atmosphere

Fraction of planets with the ability to recycle its atmosphere (through

plate tectonics)

How long it takes on average for at least single celled life to appear
after a planets formation (on Earth this was at least a billion years)

If 29 million intelligent civilizations spread out over the

vastness of space and time doesnt sound like a lot, there is a silver
lining for those who are keen to make contact with aliens (I am one
of these people, as I am optimistic that they will not be hostile).
The equation doesnt emphasize rarer civilizations with more
advanced forms of communication, that may last for thousands of
years or longer, and spread throughout the galaxy like in Contact.
There are those that should be able to expand beyond the
constraints others find themselves in. If just a few can do this, then
when we do detect a signal, it will likely be from one of these very
rare, long-lived, and probably AI-based civilizations.
More good news for those who hope to make contact with
aliens: the timeframe of when civilizations appear can be further
narrowed to the last few billion years. There has been a bell curve
in the rate of star formation, and were past the peak of the curve.
The curve peaked when the most sun-like stars existed in their mid
to late stages of life. We know this because the rate of star
formation in recent deep time is much lower than it used to be. If
the rate were as high as it was billions of years ago, we would
expect to see far younger stars compared to older stars, and we do
not. It is likely that the rate of the evolution of civilizations with
radio technology will mirror this bell curve, peaking a few billion
years after the peak of star formation.
This civilization bell curve may play out like a thunderstorm.
All of the elements for a heavy downpour begin to form, perhaps
starting with a few sprinkles as the winds pick up speed. Even
though the conditions are ripe for a heavy rain, it doesnt arrive for
a while. The rain is light at first, but then it begins to come down

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in sheets. The downpour may last for just a few minutes, or perhaps
for many hours, but eventually it tapers off back to a sprinkle of
droplets, and then ceases altogether.
This may be the historical picture of the rise and fall of
civilizations in the galaxy. Humanity might be at the start of the
tempest, and we are one of the first few drops before the downpour
begins in earnest.

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SUMMARY: A LONELY PALE BLUE DOT, PERHAPS

ONE AMONG MANY

We are a way for the Universe to know itself. Carl Sagan

Possibly for the first time since the Universe began, matter and
energy have come together in such a way as to be able to ask the
ultimate questions about its existence: What am I? How did I get
here? Am I alone?
Humanity lives in a unique moment in history. No civilization
on Earth before us has experienced existence in quite the same
way. The Mayans, Norte Chico, and Olmec never had our level of
education, medicine, and security, not to mention the endless
variety of entertainment options at the push of a button. If we could
go back in time and experience what the lives of individuals in
those early civilizations were like, we would probably be quite
content to continue in the present with our air-conditioned homes
and indoor plumbing.
Each one of us is a unique thread of existence woven into a
vast tapestry called civilization. This tapestry of humanity tells the
story of an entire species monumental effort to understand and
explore its place in the cosmos. All that we have ever learned is
contained on this single planet in computer archives, shelved in
vast libraries, painted on ancient cave walls, and shared through
stories passed down from one generation to the next. This
knowledge is worth preserving for future generations of explorers
and great thinkers.
We have a duty to all who came before us to act now to counter
the threat of countless events that would guarantee our swift
destruction, and erase all of our great history. To ensure that as
many of those threats as possible are mitigated, we need to keep
developing new technologies, secure the worlds infrastructure,

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and educate the public in science. The dinosaurs didnt stand a

chance against the asteroid that struck them. Humans also almost
went extinct before some say we got down to just 40 breeding
pairs after the supervolcano Toba erupted 72,000 years ago.
In the past, humanity didnt have the capabilities to prevent or
dodge these calamities. Now we do. A diversified residence in the
Universe is the ultimate solution to not only humanitys quest for
survival, but also our ability to expand our experiences. Residing
on multiple worlds would significantly reduce the risk of any
single event wiping out everything we have created in one
catastrophic blow. The greatest realization of the lofty goal of
colonizing space is that it is entirely possible to make happen. We
only need the will and focus to get it done.
Since, in the long run, every planetary society will be
endangered by impacts from space, every surviving civilization is
obliged to become spacefaring not because of exploratory or
romantic zeal, but for the most practical reason imaginable:
staying alive. Carl Sagan
Are there alien civilizations that have transcended the struggles
that are a part of being an evolving species, and have successfully
expanded beyond their home planet? We could learn from them,
and perhaps they could learn a few things from us in return. The
seeming emptiness of space would not be so empty if we knew of
each other. If there are indeed other civilizations out there, it would
be smart to present humanity in the best possible way. The
scientists leading our quest into space are generally some of the
brightest, most noble humans that can represent our ideals.
Although we may yearn for companions in the cosmos, we
would be wise to not trust them too hastily. We could do without
a stellar frenemy or as they call it in French, faux ami false
friend. Wolves in sheeps clothing might catch us by surprise; we
dont want to end up like the fools in The Twilight Zones episode
To Serve Man. Feeling lonely might be an unfortunate
consequence of being alone, but we might thank the heavens for
the rather peaceful rapport with outer space which we have now.

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Mieux vaut tre seul que mal accompagn, a French proverb,

translates Its better to be alone than in bad company.
If humanity one day ventures out to explore other star systems,
only to discover worlds in ruin that once hosted thriving
civilizations, then we should pay tribute to those civilizations and
ensure they are remembered. Whatever evidence we can gather of
their existence must be studied. And where an extinct civilization
is found, a monument should be created there that preserves their
identity and way of life, so that future generations can learn from
their achievements, and their mistakes.
If dead worlds are indeed all that exists in our cosmic
neighborhood, then perhaps we will have to adjust our hopes that
a civilization could last for eons, and that we will ever be able to
share our experiences with another intelligent species. We might
have to accept that a more realistic goal for all civilizations is
merely to live well and discover what they can, alone, in the time
available to them.
Fate may yet deal us this most dire of cards as we attempt a
journey to the stars. Someday humanity might fall back to a
primitive society here on Earth, perhaps forever. If we at least did
our best to establish a unified civilization that reached as far as it
could into the depths of space, then maybe that is all that counts.
Perhaps it will be some alien visitors eons from now that
memorialize our once great civilization. They may honor the
efforts humanity made to better itself and reach other sentient
creatures that were indeed there, but just out of reach.
The ultimate quest then may not be to push forever forward
ones own potential, but to learn about and remember the dignity
of others. It is my hope then that we will be remembered well.

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POEM BY DYLAN THOMAS (1914-1953)

Do not go gentle into that good night

Do not go gentle into that good night,

Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,

Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright

Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the Sun in flight,

And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight

Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,

Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

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NOTES

Chapter 1: Setting the Stage for Life and Civilization

1. Star Trek is a television show with multiple series that includes: Star
Trek The Original, Star Trek: The Next Generation, Star Trek: Deep
Space Nine, Star Trek: Voyager, and Star Trek: Enterprise. Q is an
all-powerful entity that meets the crew of the starship Enterprise D in
the Star Trek: The Next Generation (STNG) series.
2. From the Oxford English Dictionary (OED): The anthropic principle
theories of the Universe are constrained by the necessity to allow
human existence. In its weak form the principle affirms that a
Universe in which living observers cannot exist is inherently
unobservable. Strong forms take this line of reasoning further,
seeking to explain features of the Universe as being so because they
are necessary for human existence.
3. Earths composition is well known from both geologic samples of
rocks from all the continents, seafloor, as well as using technologies
like seismographs to listen in on how radar beams that bounce off of
the material within the interior of the Earth.
4. We often think of Earth as a very wet world, and on the surface that is
in part obviously true. Earth though is actually considered a very dry
planet, as are the other planets in the inner solar system; Mercury,
Venus, and Mars. Only a small percentage of water seeped out of the
Earths rocks and rained down from meteorites to give us the surface
water we see today. Its quite possible that if the planet were in a
more distant orbit, it would have become a water world, covered
100% by ocean. Total freshwater on Earth: http://on.doi.gov/1ex65I4
5. A major reason on why I write about Earths future is to ram home
the point on why we should care about our planet, to respect what we
have because it may not last (geologically speaking). The current
length of time that complex multicellular life has had to evolve is
about 500 million years. Calculating how fast the Sun is heating up,
Earth only has about another 500 million years to continue evolving
creatures past homo Sapiens in order to give these species the chance
to escape the futuristic dying Earth and colonize space.
6. Belief, and believing in belief, have saturated our way of thinking and
the progress humanity has made toward technological civilization

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since the very emergence of consciousness. The more complex tones

of belief come in the form of religion and the worship of deities.
While a significant part of our culture, these religious ideas dont
have a solid grounding on the Universes origin or how it evolved,
which is why I do not spend time talking about them in the book.
They do assert that they have an answer, but until that can be
demonstrated as true, this book is about the facts and evidence we
have today on the origin and its evolutionary processes both on Earth
and throughout the entire Universe.

Chapter 2: Evolution and the Building Blocks of Life

1. I chose to talk about Richard Dawkins because he is both a leading

evolutionary biologist, but has a broad grounding in how we apply
reason and evidence to understanding our environment and its past
history, as well as its potential future. You can learn more about
Richard Dawkins at www.richarddawkins.net.
2. Climbing Mount Improbable is a repeated description by Richard
Dawkins of how evolution makes progress to more complex forms
through natural selection. Since evolution is a blind system that does
not have foresight or can anticipate the best course of evolving a
species, there is no way to easily progress without making mistakes
along the way. Its improbable that a species evolves a positive trait
from countless many destructive ones, but it does happen. This is the
very essence of Mount Improbable. Countless changes (mutations)
are made to a species over time. The harmful mutations will kill off
the carrier, but the good mutations that make the individual stronger
may be passed on to its offspring. Slowly but surely the species (and
successive species) reach another stage of complexity, i.e. climb
higher on Mount Improbable.
3. Flagellum are often used as the linchpin of arguing against the facts
about evolution. Apologists will use the flagellum because it is an
extremely complex structure, even for evolution. The flagellum is the
only known naturally occurring rotor mechanism. Life doesnt seem
to tend to creating moving parts, but clearly the flagellums rotor was
necessary at some point in evolutionary history as the earliest forms
of life evolved. Since evolution slowly evolves complexity over time
via Mount Improbable, its argued that the flagellum had no such path
to complexity. Take out one part and the flagellum would fail. A
significant leap to that complexity would be required, and only an
intelligent designer could provide that foresight. The error apologists
make when using this argument is they ignore or do not understand
that by taking out one part only prevents the current flagellum from
functioning, it does not prevent the object missing that part to

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function in some other fashion. For example, take out the rotatory
motion and the flagellum can still be used as a needle like appendage
for sexual reproduction, or for defense.
4. Species go extinct all the time. Of all species to ever exist, well over
99% have gone extinct. Here is a list of major species extinction rates
throughout Earths history: http://bit.ly/2djvb6R

Chapter 3: A Brief History of Earths Civilizations

1. The history of our planet is so grand that I was required to break it

down into larger segments. These segments come in two parts, the
Eras and the Ages. Eras are often focused on the natural history of
Earth independent of humanity, such as the Paleolithic, Paleozoic,
Mesozoic, Archeozoic, Hadean, etc. Ages are focused on humanity
and civilization itself, such as the Stone Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age,
Industrial Age, Computer Age, Space Age, and so on.
2. The Middle Ages is a bit of an exception from all those listed above.
This period in civilizations history encompasses many of the above
ages, lasting from about the 5th to the 15th centuries. While not an age
of progress, it describes much of the time during the Dark Ages after
the fall of the Western Roman Empire, progressing slowly over
hundreds of years to the Renaissance, and finally introducing the start
of the Age of Discovery from the 15th to the 18th centuries.
3. The Renaissance is the period in civilizations history that
immediately follows the Middle Ages. In researching the history of
civilization all the way back to the Stone Age, I found this period to
be the most significant for the purposes of this book. Without this
period in our history, we wouldnt have framed the proper conditions
for science and learning about the world, expanding our knowledge in
such a way to make true technological progress. The Renaissance in
my view is the beginnings of our reach to the stars.

Chapter 4: The Engine of Modern Civilization

1. Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns was included from

when I first listened to the idea from a Donald Rumsfeld quote):
http://bit.ly/1HZNVnf. Essentially, Known Unknowns are those
things we know exit but have no idea what they are, such as Dark
Matter and Dark Energy. Then there are the Unknown Knowns that
we really have no firm grasp on, but must have some sort of
explanation, such as what (if anything) occurs after death for a
conscious creature.

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2. There are several other agencies that I used to research the more
technological parts of the book and particularly this chapter. Some of
those agencies I would recommend you look up are:
1) UK Space Agency (UKSA)
2) China National Space Administration (CNSA)
3) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO)
4) European Space Agency (ESA)
5) Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAEA)
6) Korean Aerospace Research Institute (KARI)
7) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
8) National Center of Space Research (CNES)
9) Russian Federal Space Agency (RFSA)
10) United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA)
3. Many scientists will often refer to the Kardashev scale to describe the
potential power of advanced civilizations. The sequence goes all the
way to 9 or more power levels. I tend to discount everything on the
scale beyond level 2 (II, building a Dysons Sphere around a star).
While its important to consider maximize potential for perspective, I
dont believe that Type III, or higher, exist anywhere in the Universe.
This level of power and above is unrealistic to consider with
everything we can reasonable conjecture about technological
progress, and so far, has no evidence for them existing in thousands
of surveyed nearby galaxies. The scale is as outlandish as suggesting
that every single person on the planet will eventually be able to own
its own 500 story skyscraper office building. It just doesnt follow
any logical path of reasoning other than purely unlimited, and
unwarranted, increases in material and energy.

Chapter 5: A House of Cards

1. We are able to understand a great detail about the atmosphere through

ice that traps the atmosphere in tiny air bubbles. I encourage you to
read more up on historic atmospheric CO2 levels in ice core samples
and other materials at: http://bit.ly/1QpKs3j
2. I recommend the movie, Supervolcano, for a dramatic but still fairly
realistic scenario of what would happen if the Yellowstone Caldera
erupts. I also want to emphasize that while the supervolcano is
statistically overdue, there is no reason to suggest that it actually
will erupt tomorrow, next year, or ever again.
3. The Year Without a Summer was one of those recent events (1816)
that really emphasizes how one somewhat smaller, non-super-
volcano, can do damage to our planet. This single eruption of Mount
Tambora in April 1915 threw up tons of ash into the atmosphere,

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where it then slowly circulated around the globe for that following
year. Starting in the spring of 1916, temperatures plummeted with
crop failures and famine spread across the globe. Fortunately, the
next years summer returned to normal temperatures.
4. Chelyabinsk was perhaps the first time an asteroid explosion was
caught on camera by so many, and where that explosion affected so
many. I would suggest looking up these videos to see how much
damage the city of Chelyabinsk obtained from the asteroid.
5. Mistakes are made all of the time, but I was surprised to learn just
how close we came to disaster with the Goldsboro bomber and its
dropping of defunct nuclear bombs on the eastern coast of the United
States. An article on that near fateful day: http://bit.ly/1lGGGPS
6. Extinction rates today are far faster than in most previous mass
extinctions due to how we are affecting the climate. Here is an article
that describes the disruption in global climate humanity is causing,
and its effects on the diversity of species: http://bit.ly/2dK2W0p
7. Sea level rises have recently been vastly underestimated as we learn
more about ocean circulation, cloud albedo, and other complex
moving systems that transport heat around the globe. Here is a new
paper of the projected rise in sea levels to the year 2100 and beyond:
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/cop19/3_gregory13sbsta.pdf
8. Chinas one-child policy has been a huge success in keeping Chinas
population from growing even more quickly than it already has. The
problem is that now the population risks a severe shortage of workers
in the future with an increasingly elderly population that could be as
much of a problem in the future as it is for Japan now. Thus, Chinas
one-child policy will end in phases over the next few decades.
9. The destruction that an EMP can wreak on civilization is hard to
comprehend, even with the dire scenarios I projected here in the
book. If you want a more visual take on how badly it can get, I
recommend watching the television shows Jericho and Revolution.
10. There are a surprising variety of nuclear weapons, from tiny ones that
could be known as bunker busters, to the ICBMs that need to be
hauled by submarines and other large equipment. Here are some
fascinating statistics of nuclear weapons: http://bit.ly/1P4O892

Chapter 6: Exploring the Cosmos

1. The Singularity is the point scientists mark that is the theoretical

beginning of the Universe. This is the point in space and time where
were not sure exactly what existed or how it came into being. Asking
the question, What came before the singularity, or the Big Bang
may not be possible to answer. I dont talk about this aspects of the

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evolution of the Universe in this book because it doesnt help us to

overall understand our place within the Universe.
2. The Planck Epoch, named after Max Planck, is the earliest period in
the Universe, the singularity to which I mention above. The Planck
Length is the smallest possible measure of distance. Due to how
space and time exist, there is an apparent limit as to how small energy
and fundamental properties of the Universe can exist, regardless of
how our imaginations can perceive an ever infinitely smaller realm.
3. Learning about constellations was a fun class I took in college. If you
want to find out where Cassiopeia, Pegasus, and many of the other
famous constellations lie in the night sky, I recommend the Star Chart
app for ones mobile phone. The app literally overlays your phones
screen with constellation outlines depending upon where you point
your phones camera lens.
4. As I also describe in the Galactic Habitable Zone section, Habitable
zones in general are a tricky concept to identify their boundaries.
Planetary System Habitable Zones (PSHZ) are fairly stable, only
varying significantly over hundreds of millions of years as the star
increases in age and luminosity. This puts a life limit on any orbiting
planets around non M-dwarf stars at 10-20 billion years at most.
Galactic Habitable Zones (GHZ) are not really defined well at all,
except loosely in terms of distance from the galactic core where
metallicity falls off the further out you go. Then there is the age of the
planet itself. Nothing lasts forever. Surprisingly, studies have shown
that even planets with very robust dynamos that generate powerful
magnetic fields, will only have their protective shielding for 10-20
billion years. Eventually the dynamo in the interior of the planet
equalizes and is no longer able to generate a magnetic field. Any life
on the surface would die without this field. Unfortunately, this holds
true for planets around M-dwarf stars. Even though the star may last
for a trillion years or more, its dubious if the magnetic field of an
orbiting planet would ever be able to last that long.
5. There are numerous telescopes in existence or coming online that are
capable of finding planets, especially planets the size of Jupiter or
larger. We are quickly developing technologies that are enabling not
only the detection, but probing the atmospheric compositions of ever
smaller planets the size of Earth and even Mars. Here are some of
those telescopes and observatories to further research, sorted by the
date they came online or are planned to come online:
1) Hubble (1990)
2) Keck 1 and 2 (1993)
3) Very Large Telescope (VLT, 1998)
4) Corot (2006)
5) Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC, 2007)

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6) Kepler (2009)
7) Gemini Planet Imager (2011)
8) Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS, 2017)
9) James Webb Space Telescopes (JWST, 2018)
10) European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT, 2024)
11) Planetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO, 2024)
12) Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT, 2021-2025)
13) Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT, Postponed)
14) Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope
(ATLAST, 2025-2035)

Chapter 7: The Boundaries of Habitability

1. In researching gravity and its effects on the human body (and all
living organisms both large and small), I was fascinated to read that
gravity isnt as much of a detriment to life on heavy gravity worlds
like super-Earths as I thought. There is two parts here you may wish
to research further. The first part is that super-Earths, even the larger
ones, exhibit only a gravitational pull between one or two Gs stronger
than that on Earth. Bone density and shorter stature can compensate
for a higher gravity field. The second part is the stress our bodies can
take from a heart pumping and brain functioning perspective. Fighter
pilots and astronauts are easily able to handle 2 or 3Gs of stress
consistently on their bodies. Even 9Gs is possible for a limited time,
though blackout risks occur at this point due to the heart unable to
pump blood to the brain from the forces involved. Atmospheric
density is going to be far more of an important factor for life.
2. The term I use here, Burn, is technically not correct. It is used for
simplicity sake to get the point across that energy is being consumed
and changes in material are taking place. Burning of an object
normally means a physical material is being consumed through the
energetic process of a plasma field (fire) using oxygen in the air to
chemically alter a physical material such as wood. In a star, the
process is entirely on the subatomic scale, not the molecular.
3. The Maunder Minimum event, also called the pro-longed sunspots
minimum, was an unusually cold period during the late 15 th and early
16th centuries, from about 1645 to 1718. Sunspot activity on the Sun
was low, even lower than what were witnessing in the current
sunspot Solar Cycle 24. During this time period, rivers that have
never frozen over before began to freeze. There is still no solid
connection between sunspot activity and localized climate change,
but scientists suspect a link.
4. The Hill Radius was explained well enough in the book proper, but I
wanted to add here that its particularly worth investigating on ones

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own time. A lot can be learned about the potential for habitability of
exomoons based on the limits of the Hill Radius. This sort of limit
also applies to how close planets can orbit each other, as well as how
close stars and other objects can pass by each other without being
effected significantly by each others gravity.
5. AU stands for Astronomical Unit. As with many units of
measurement, it is Earth based. 1 AU is the benchmark average
distance of Earth to the Sun. When we measure the distance of other
planets, we multiply that distances by how far away (or close) they
are to the Sun. Here are the AUs for every planet in the solar system:
1) Mercury: .39 AU
2) Venus: .723 AU
3) Earth: 1 AU
4) Mars: 1.524 AU
5) Jupiter: 5.203 AU
6) Saturn: 9.539 AU
7) Uranus: 19.18 AU
8) Neptune: 30.06 AU
6. Like the distance of the solar systems planets, here is a list of all the
planet radius, as well as how fast their equators spin. Planetary size
affects the spin rate, and spin rate can affect the average wind speeds
(other factors can apply, especially in cases like Venus). All of these
factors determine habitability of a world:
1) Mercury: 2,440 km / 175.97 Earth days
2) Venus: 6,052 km / 243 Earth days
3) Earth: 6,371 km / 24 hours
4) Mars: 3,390 km / 24 hours and 39 minutes
5) Jupiter: 69,911 km / 9.5 hours
6) Saturn: 58,232 km / 10 hours and 14 minutes
7) Uranus: 25,362 km / 15 hours and 58 minutes
8) Neptune: 24,622 km / 19 hours

9) And while not a planet, for interests sake, Plutos radius is a

tiny 1,187 km, and a day takes 6.39 Earth days to complete.
7. Abbot and Switzer estimated that a planet at least three times the
mass of Earth would be warm enough at the core to maintain water on
the surface, regardless of how far away the planet was from the parent
star (even if the planet was a rogue world adrift between stars, this
estimate would still apply). Unfortunately, these worlds would have a
crushingly dense atmosphere that calls into question whether complex
animal life could survive on the world, temperature notwithstanding.
Microbial life may survive without much trouble.
8. Thanks to phl.upr.edu Habitable Exoplanets Catalog for the image.

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Chapter 8: The Scale of Things

1. In the Scaling of Existence list of how we count up vast amounts of

objects, the last references Multiverse. First, a clarification on what
this word by itself means. Multiverse is a concept of more than one
universe existing. There are several ways this can come about, but
essentially when we describe all of existence with this concept, were
taking into account every universe, not just our own. We are calling
the landscape of universes the Multiverse. When I talk about the
number of possible shapes, space-time and its numerous dimensions
(theorized to be more than three space and one of time), can take on
an incredible array of shapes upon the Universes formation. Our
Universe has a particular shape, while another might be quite
different. In our Universe life is possible, whereas atoms may not
even be possible, and thus life, in some other universe because of the
shape of that universes dimensions. Scientists calculated that a
universe can form from a pool of up to 10500 possible shapes.
2. Homogenous means the same everywhere. While we normally
dont think of the Universe as being the same everywhere, at the
largest of scales, this really is the case. Point a telescope at one part of
the sky and zoom in and you will see thousands of galaxies. Spirals,
ellipticals, and other types of galaxies will be mixed in. While this
looks diverse, zoom in to another part of the sky and take a similar
sample, and you will get the same~ percentage of spirals, ellipticals,
etc. Even star types within a particular galaxy are relatively the same,
after taking into account the age of the overall Universe and the
galaxys place within it. What I find interesting about this result is
that it suggests that, perhaps, planets and their ability to support life
also fall into this paradigm.
3. More recent calculations of this outer most fringe of what we can
observe suggest that there are perhaps 10 times more galaxies than we
thought, and thus 10 times as much mass. Because these galaxies are
still theoretical, Ive left the official total at 160 billion.
4. As with much of this chapter, the 24-hour clock is meant to show
how far apart some of the changes of evolution occur, and by the
same token, how quickly they can occur. It should also show you
how, given enough time, amazing properties can come about simply
from physics and chemistry. Surprisingly, I found many conflicting
examples of the 24-hour clock, going with the following:
http://www.bookedwebcast.com/images/Geological-Clock.gif
5. The Most Recent Common Ancestor is difficult enough to explain in
a single book, let alone a few paragraphs in this one. If you are
interested in learning more about our MRCA, and how the

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explanations I give apply to our history and evolution, read the

following paper by Douglas L.T. Rohde: http://bit.ly/1KlDdDC
6. Due to a poor radio connection, Neil Armstrong was misquoted with
most quotes leaving out the a in A small step for a man, and
instead just quote him as saying A small step for man.
7. Proxima Centauri is the nearest star to the Sun. The star is part of a
triple star system containing also Alpha Centauri A and Alpha
Centauri B. These later two stars are nearly sun-like, whereas
Proxima Centauri is a much smaller M-dwarf (Red Dwarf). The triple
star system combined with sun-like stars, all relatively close to our
solar system, is why scientists have been studying the system for the
potential for life.
8. While exotic, Im most excited about the idea behind the Alcubierre
drive. Designed by Miguel Alcubierre, a Mexican theoretical
physicist, the Alcubierre drive is a method of warping space around a
spacecraft that pushes the spacecraft forward faster than the speed of
light. The ability to move faster than the speed of light is possible
because the drive compresses space in front of the spacecraft and
stretches it out behind the spacecraft. The drive would circumvent the
normal limitations of light speed by moving space itself, instead of
the spacecraft technically moving through space. While no
technology currently exists of generating this kind of space-time
distortion, mathematically it is a plausible concept.

Chapter 9: Is Anybody Out There?

1. I list here the 20% of stars being capable of hosting habitable planets.
I must clarify two points here. First, any star could theoretically host
a planet with life around it, if time and evolution were not a factor
and the life just popped into existence on the spot. Because it takes at
least a few million years for a planet to cool, let alone produce life,
we can safely mark off the hot O, B, and A categories of stars.
Assuming that life takes at least as long as it did to evolve on Earth,
then even F type stars are in serious question. Of the 20%, I include
G, K, and even throw in M type stars. M type are included because
there are so many and they last for so long, that all of the other
problems associated with them may still produce habitable worlds
around some of these stars. Breaking it down, here are percentages
for each star type that I estimate have a chance of producing a space
faring civilization on one of their orbiting worlds:
O: 0%, B: 0%, A: 1%, F: 5%, G: 40%, K: 40%, M: 14%
While there are more K type stars in the Milky Way than there are G
type, the smallest of the K type share a similar problem with all of the
M types their goldilocks zone planets (where liquid water could

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reside on the surface) may be tidally locked with their star. This effect
is still a significant unknown in terms of habitability.
2. Project Ozma was started by Frank Drake in 1960. The project was
considered the first attempt to search for extraterrestrials (E.T., i.e.
aliens) in another star system. The famous Drake Equation was
derived during a meeting in 1961. There was a follow-up experiment
in the 1970s called Ozma II. Both experiments proved unsuccessful in
detecting an alien civilization (as have all currently running
experiments that now have far more sensitive equipment).
3. Robin Hanson has been a close study for this book throughout many
of the chapters, but particularly for Chapter 9. He proposed The Great
Filter in an essay in 1996. In the essay, he also referred frequently to
the Fermi Paradox (he called it The Great Silence). I agree with The
Great Filter concept, but here is where I disagree with Mr. Hanson on
his conclusion as to why we havent heard from anyone. We havent
found life and civilization yet because its simply difficult to find.
Were dealing with a needle in a haystack on a massive scale. There
may be an abundance of life filled planets in the Milky Way, perhaps
even billions. We may detect these worlds one day. The real question
is civilizations existence on these worlds, and how long they last.
The answer to the Fermi Paradox and the Great Filter is quite simple;
space and time are so vast, and civilization is so fragile, that we
simply never meet each other in time. Billions of civilizations
separated out by billions of kilometers and billions of years.
4. Oculus Rift, Vive, and Project Morpheus are all Virtual Reality
goggles one wears to play virtual 3D games. These are new devices
just being introduced to the game industry as of 2015. It has been
suggested by many scientists that these VR devices will allow us to
one day explore the cosmos in such detail as to feel like we are
amongst the stars. Perhaps they are a prelude to my thoughts in
Chapter 9 about alien civilizations eventually halting their exploration
of the real cosmos in favor of a virtual one.

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SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER READING

There are many topics in this book that draw upon knowledge
from countless scientists and great thinkers. I encourage further
reading into all of them. Here are a few related books that will give
you an even bigger picture of our place in the cosmos:
Baggott, Jim. Origins. Oxford University Press, 2015.
Bartusiak, Marcia. The Day We Found the Universe. NY: Vintage, 2010.
Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy. Oxford University Press, 2012.
Briggs, Roger P. Journey to Civilization. Collin Foundation Press, 2013.
Brown, Harris. The Challenge of Mans Future. Penguin Books, 1956.
Clark, Ronald. Einstein: The Life and Times. NY: Avon, 1984.
Davies, Paul. The Eerie Silence. UK: Penguin Books
Dawkins, Richard. The Greatest Show on Earth. Free Press, 2010.
Dawkins, Richard. The Selfish Gene. Oxford University Press, 2006.
Fichman, Frederick. The SETI Trilogy. Frederick Fichman, 2014.
Greene, Brian. Fabric of the Cosmos. First Vintage Books, 2005.
Greene, Brian. The Elegant Universe. NY: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003.
Greene, Brian. The Hidden Reality. NY: Random House, 2011.
Hawking, Stephen. A Briefer History of Time. NY: Bantam Dell, 2005.
Hawking, Stephen. The Grand Design. NY: Bantam Books, 2010.
Hawking, Stephen. The Universe in a Nutshell. A Bantam Book, 2001.
Krauss, Lawrence M. A Universe From Nothing. NY: Free Press, 2012.
Maloof, F. Michael. A Nation Forsaken. WND Books, 2013.
Morris, Simon Conway. The Runes of Evolution. Templeton Press, 2015.
Nolan, Christopher. The Science of Interstellar. W.W. Norton & Comp., 2014.
Nye, Bill. Unstoppable. NY: St. Martins Press, 2015.
Sagan, Carl. Cosmos. Sagan Productions, Inc., 1980.
Sasselov, Dimitar. The Life of Super-Earths. Basic Books, 2012.
Savage, Marshall T. The Millennial Project. Empyrean Pub, 1993.
Schrodinger, Erwin. What Is Life? Cambridge, Eng.: Canto, 2000.
Stevenson, David S. Under a Crimson Sun. Springer, 2013.
Tyson, Neil deGrasse. Origins. NY: W.W. Norton & Company, 2014.
Ward, Peter and Brownlee, Donald E., Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is
Uncommon in the Universe, 2000.
Weir, Andy. The Martian. Random House, 2014.
Yavar Abbas. Earth: Making of a Planet. National Geographic Channel, 2011.

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INDEX

Chapter 1: Setting the Stage for Life and Civilization (Pg. 13)

A Paradise on Earth (Pg. 14)

o The Anthropic Principle (Pg. 15)
An Evolving Planet (Pg. 16)
o A Shooting Gallery of Billiards (Pg. 16)
o Earths Composition (Pg. 17)
o A Restless Planet (Pg. 18)
Earths Habitability (Pg. 19)
Usable Real Estate (Pg. 21)
Earths Future (Pg. 22)
The Perfect Earth (Pg. 23)

Chapter 2: Evolution and the Building Blocks of Life (Pg. 25)

The Greatest Event in History (Pg. 26)

The Foundation of Life (Pg. 26)
o The Periodic Soup (Pg. 26)
o Lifes Scaffolding RNA and DNA (Pg. 28)
o A Synthetic RNA and DNA XNA (Pg. 28)
The Beginnings of Life on Earth (Pg. 29)
Lifes Ability to Evolve (Pg. 30)
o Richard Dawkins Mount Improbable (Pg. 31)
o Evolutionary Pressures (Pg. 32)
Climbing Mount Improbable (Pg. 33)
o The Eye (Pg. 34)
o Insects (Pg. 35)
o From Water to Land (Pg. 36)
Evolutions Processes (Pg. 36)

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o Unguided Man-made Evolution (Pg. 37)

o Guided Man-made Evolution (Pg. 38)
o Horizontal Evolution (Pg. 40)
o The Ugly Side of Evolution (Pg. 40)
Simulating Lifes Evolutionary Process (Pg. 41)
Resource Limitations (Pg. 41)
Unique Human Capacities (Pg. 42)
o Opposable Thumbs Manipulation the
Environment (Pg. 42)
o Bipedalism Transportation (Pg. 43)
o The Human Brain Intelligence and Forethought
(Pg. 44)
o Vocal Communication (Pg. 45)
Human Vestiges (Pg. 45)
Where Will Evolution Take Humanity? (Pg. 46)

Chapter 3: The Rise of Civilization on Earth (Pg. 49)

Early Human Civilization (Pg. 50)

The First Civilizations (Pg. 52)
o Sumer (Pg. 52)
o Ancient Egypt (Pg. 53)
o Norte Chico (Pg. 53)
o Olmec (Pg. 54)
o Indus Valley (Pg. 55)
o China (Pg. 55)
Beyond the First Civilizations (Pg. 56)
Rise of Islam and a Great Change (Pg. 57)
Other Civilizations (Pg. 59)
Defining Science and How it is Misused (Pg. 60)
The Age of Enlightenment (Pg. 61)
The Great Thinkers (Pg. 63)
o Sir Isaac Newton (Classical Physics) (Pg. 63)
o Adam Smith (Free Market Economics) (Pg. 64)
o Thomas Jefferson (Political Philosophy) (Pg. 65)
o Charles Darwin (Evolution) (Pg. 65)

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o Albert Einstein (Early Modern Physics) (Pg. 67)

o Stephen Hawking (Modern Physics) (Pg. 68)
o Hope as a Catalyst for Progress (Pg. 70)

Chapter 4: The Engine of Modern Civilization (Pg. 71)

The Long Road of Progress (Pg. 72)

o A Scenario in a Galaxy, Far, Far Away (Pg. 73)
o Revisiting a Star Trek Movie Scenario (Pg. 74)
The Great Technological Ladder (Pg. 75)
Fire An Energy Catalyst (Pg. 77)
Non-Renewable Energy Sources (Pg. 77)
o Coal An Easy Grab (Pg. 78)
o Petroleum The Bubblin Brew (Pg. 79)
o Natural Gas (Pg. 79)
o Tar Sands The New Oil (Pg. 80)
Inventory of Non-Renewable Resources (Pg. 81)
Renewable Energy Sources (Pg. 83)
o Geothermal Power (Pg. 83)
o Hydropower (Pg. 84)
o Biomass (Pg. 84)
o Wind (Pg. 85)
o Solar (Photovoltaics (Pg. 86)
Inventory of Renewable Resources (Pg. 88)
The Complexity of Technology (Pg. 89)
o Energy Transmission and Storage (Pg. 89)
o Physical Goods Infrastructure (Pg. 91)
Exponential Growth (Pg. 92)
o Vertical Farming (Pg. 93)
Beyond a Single Planet (Pg. 94)
o SimCity (Pg. 95)
o Capturing a Star Dyson Spheres (Pg. 97)

Chapter 5: A House of Cards (Pg. 101)

Civilization-Ending Scenarios (Pg. 103)

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 Mathew C. Anderson

o Supervolcanoes (Pg. 103)

o Asteroid/Comet Impacts (Pg. 105)
o World War III (Pg. 106)
o Pandemic Outbreak (Pg. 107)
o Climate Change (Pg. 109)
o Overpopulation and Resource Depletion (Pg. 111)
o Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) (Pg. 112)
o Nuclear Holocaust (Pg. 114)
o Other Catastrophic Events (Pg. 117)
The Fall of Civilization (Pg. 117)
Rebuilding the Engine of Civilization (Pg. 119)
o The Recovery Stage (Pg. 119)
Our Undetermined Future (Pg. 120)
o The Cosmos as Our Savior (Pg. 121)

Chapter 6: Exploring the Cosmos (Pg. 125)

The Cities of the Universe Galaxies (Pg. 127)

o Spiral Galaxies Young and Beautiful (Pg. 127)
o Elliptical Galaxies The Milky Ways Future (Pg.
129)
o Irregular and S0 Galaxies The Unwanted
Offspring (Pg. 130)
Stars Lifes Parents (Pg. 131)
o The Birth of a Planetary System (Pg. 133)
Star Classifications Lifes Sweet Spot (Pg. 133)
o O-, B-, and A-Class Stars Hot and Heavy (Pg.
134)
o F-Type Stars On the Edge (Pg. 135)
o G- and K-Type Stars The Sweet Spot (Pg. 135)
o M-Type Stars An Enigma (Pg. 136)
The Stellar Graveyard (Pg. 137)
Habitable Zones (Pg. 139)
o Venus and Mars A Unique Family (Pg. 140)
o A Galactic Habitable Zone (Pg. 142)
Alien Planetary Systems (Pg. 144)

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o The Golden Age of Planet Hunting (Pg. 145)

o Detection Techniques (Pg. 146)
o A New Generation of Telescopes (Pg. 148)
What Will We Find? (Pg. 149)

Chapter 7: The Boundaries of Habitability (Pg. 151)

Introducing super-Earths (Pg. 153)

o Gravity of super-Earths (Pg. 154)
o Geology of super-Earths (Pg. 155)
o Atmospheres of super-Earths (Pg. 155)
o Super-Earths Are Everywhere! (Pg. 156)
Pushing the Boundaries of Earth-like (Pg. 157)
o An M-Dwarfs Younger Years (Pg. 157)
o Tidally Locked Worlds (Pg. 159)
o Habitability of Tidally Locked Worlds (Pg. 160)
o Movie Example White Dwarf (Pg. 161)
o Just a Little Instability (Pg. 162)
Other, Even More Exotic Worlds (Pg. 162)
o Habitable Moons (Pg. 162)
o Rogue Planets (Pg. 164)
A Collective Evolution (Pg. 166)
Habitability Zone Sample (Pg. 167)

Chapter 8: The Scale of Things (Pg. 169)

Scaling Existence (Pg. 170)

o Counting Them All Up (Pg. 171)
o The Largest and Smallest (Pg. 172)
Evolution and Deep Time (Pg. 173)
o Another Case for M-Dwarfs (Pg. 175)
o In the Blink of a Civilization (Pg. 176)
o Humanitys Expanding Waistline (Pg. 177)
Deep Distance From Point A to Point B (Pg. 178)
o Outer Space A Vast New Frontier (Pg. 179)
o Theoretical Travel Possibilities (Pg. 182)

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 Mathew C. Anderson

The Great Cosmic Ocean (Pg. 184)

Chapter 9: Is Anybody Out There? (Pg. 185)

The Drake Equation (Pg. 187)

o Analyzing Drakes Equation (Pg. 187)
Detecting Another Civilization (Pg. 191)
o Sending a Signal (Pg. 191)
o Detecting a Signal (Pg. 193)
o Atmospheric Signatures (Pg. 194)
The Fermi Paradox Where is Everybody? (Pg. 195)
o The Detection Conundrum (Pg. 197)
o The Existence Conundrum (Pg. 199)
The Great Filter (Pg. 199)
Highlighting Likely Filters (Pg. 200)
o Technological Self-Destruction (Pg. 201)
o Our Successor: Artificial Intelligence (Pg. 201)
o Fatigue and Lack of Motivation (Pg. 205)
o The Vastness of Space and Time (Pg. 206)
Making it Through the Great Filter (Pg. 207)
o Contact Through Domination (Pg. 208)
o Contact Through Communication (Pg. 209)
New Equations Are Needed (Pg. 210)

Summary: A Lonely Pale Blue Dot, Perhaps One Among

Many (Pg. 215)

Poem by Dylan Thomas (Pg. 218)

Notes (Pg. 219)

Suggestions for Further Reading (Pg. 231)

References (Pg. 239)

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REFERENCES

African burial rituals: http://bit.ly/1jJkSKm

Alexander Wilszczan: http://bit.ly/1JTr9yy
Allan Telescope Array: http://bit.ly/1S4UtCb
Ancient Civilizations: http://bit.ly/1OQMVR9
Artificial Intelligence: http://bit.ly/1R7lUu8
Atmospheric loss: http://bit.ly/1S4UtSB
Average wind speeds: http://bit.ly/1OPPjLN
Bauxite (Aluminum) reserves: http://on.doi.gov/1WcNhnO
Carbon Dioxide levels: http://bit.ly/1MkMYbk
Chirality: http://bit.ly/1KZL5tm
Civilization history time map: http://bit.ly/1SjsA7I
Climbing Mount Improbable: http://bit.ly/1Nfyy6L
CO2 Sequestering: http://bit.ly/29LTDvH
Collision energy of space debris: http://bit.ly/1O1y3D4
Comets: http://bit.ly/1N1mo5T
Copper reserves: http://bloom.bg/1WcD2Fm
Crystal growth: http://bit.ly/1i7ge7j
Drake Equation for kids: http://bit.ly/1cpiQ6Q
Earths last warming trend: http://nbcnews.to/139DWrU
Earths primordial atmosphere: http://bit.ly/1MNhODO
Earths water content: http://on.doi.gov/1ex65I4
Earth-moon rotational relationship: http://bit.ly/1LPTHV3
Earths oxygen levels: http://bit.ly/1q6MKbl
Ebola: http://bit.ly/1S4UEx2
Economic-growth graph: http://bit.ly/1P08QaW
Electrical grid and transformers: http://bit.ly/1Kz8h1s
EMP pulse types: http://bit.ly/1GNiqNk
EMP and its effects: http://bit.ly/1iAnF75
EMP death rates: http://bit.ly/1Kz8ku1
Entire human population: http://bit.ly/1SjsA7I
Extinction Rates: http://bit.ly/1oHSgD2 and bit.ly/1rlmAmY
Evolution macro vs micro: http://bit.ly/1RO4gvo
Evolution - RNA first replicating molecule: http://bit.ly/1WcNDeb
Evolution - XNA synthetics: http://bit.ly/1NuKVhV
Eyes pinhole: http://bit.ly/1k3xcVs

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 Mathew C. Anderson

First multicellular life and oxygenation: http://bit.ly/1OPPy9r

First planet discovered: http://go.nasa.gov/1djd7Ue
First six civilizations: http://bit.ly/1GriP83
Flagellum: http://bit.ly/1U5ry1l
Frank Drake history with Enrico Fermi: http://bit.ly/1WcD93Z
Galaxys Oldest Star System: http://bit.ly/1DdziG6
Gene Expression: http://bit.ly/2a0AFzJ
Geothermal capacity: http://stanford.io/1WlSe3d
Giant sequoias: http://bit.ly/1P08UaD
Global warming limitations: http://bit.ly/IPMmvo
Gold reserves: http://bit.ly/1KWASmU
Golden Age of Islam: http://bit.ly/1RuWDOe
Goldsborough Nuclear Bomb Accident: http://bit.ly/1lGGGPS
Grasping Large Numbers: http://bit.ly/1o7Yasq
Growth rate exponential rebuttal: http://bit.ly/1Kz8ku1
Growth rates general: http://bit.ly/1xpKMGG
Habitability of M Dwarf systems: http://bit.ly/1Rywwma
Habitable zones: http://bit.ly/1P08T6C
Historical population levels: http://bit.ly/1LiBEtR
History Middle Ages: http://bit.ly/Zofa5W
History of Earth on 24-hour clock template: http://bit.ly/1WcD9Rf
Human evolutionary timeline: http://s.si.edu/1uwCbl7
Human population growth rates: http://bit.ly/1PPaXiu
Human white-blood cell count: http://bit.ly/1MkNm9D
Human/Wolf relationship: http://bit.ly/1thczBT
Hydropower potential and reserves: http://bit.ly/1P08UaD
Ice Age Land Bridge: http://bit.ly/1dhlqmT
Islam: http://bit.ly/1UmEwH3
Islamic Religion: http://bbc.in/1jneAsV
Iron Age: http://bit.ly/1Grike7
Iron reserves: http://bit.ly/206qNtm
Kepler statistics: http://bit.ly/1LVLIJA
Leonardo Da Vinci: http://bit.ly/1dxK021
M-dwarf lifetimes: http://bit.ly/1GBvbtO
Microprocessor history: http://intel.ly/1oyLMzJ
Mona Lisa: http://bit.ly/1XUxYTA
Moon statistics: http://abt.cm/1PPaVHc
Moores Law: http://bit.ly/1i7nJeq
Most Common Recent Ancestor: http://bit.ly/1KlDdDC
Natural disasters: http://bit.ly/1S4UEx2
Natural gas reserves: http://bit.ly/1P08XDi
Neanderthals and Denisovans: http://bit.ly/10CTjbL
Neutron star spin rates: http://bit.ly/1WcNyY7
Newton prism: http://fla.st/1N1mEBI

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Nuclear Incident in 1961: http://bit.ly/1lGGGPS

Oil source as single celled life: http://nyti.ms/1PPaXiy
Oil use: http://bit.ly/1AeSIrb
Oregon Trail: http://bit.ly/1p7oPLH
Oxygenation of oceans and atmosphere: http://bit.ly/2adNMAV
Photosynthetic cells: http://bit.ly/1Ch4Ijc
Photovoltaic coverage of Earth: http://bit.ly/1wwgr6v
Planck scale to decimal place: http://bit.ly/1WcDbJ8
Planck scale to human size: http://bit.ly/1MkNm9D
Plant height limitations: http://bit.ly/1M9OLOo
Plant material for car gas: http://bit.ly/1Kz8wcK
Planetary dynamics: http://bit.ly/1OheVky
Radio communications travel distance: http://bit.ly/13onzcd
Renewables report 2014: http://bit.ly/1wJgtti
Search for exoplanet life: http://bit.ly/1ySMmNn
Size of Earth comparisons: http://bit.ly/1NuKTXl
Size of Universe comparisons: http://bit.ly/1XskZZ0
Solar cell efficiency: http://bit.ly/1C4mNxq
Solar Facts: http://bit.ly/1lb26Wa
Space resources: http://bit.ly/1MkNGoU
Size of the solar system: http://bit.ly/1WcNGXo
Star count within 100 light years of Earth: http://bit.ly/1OPPOW0
Star spectral classifications: http://bit.ly/1kw9Qbj
Star Trek: The Next Generation: http://bit.ly/1nczVOD
Steel use: http://1.usa.gov/1w6qrre
Stress Controlling Genes: http://go.nature.com/2guTuza
Super-Earth range of potential: bit.ly/IPMmvo
Super-Earth comparison to Earth: http://bit.ly/IPMmvo
Super-Earth surface gravity: http://bit.ly/1g1jqjh
Supernova rates: http://bit.ly/1OPPPcG
Sumerian civilization: http://bit.ly/1FeJUpf and http://bit.ly/1ySl0sH
The Great Oxygenation Event: http://bit.ly/2adNMAV
The Last Supper: http://bit.ly/1MgbLI6
The late heavy bombardment: http://bit.ly/1MNig4Q
Tidal-lock heat transport: http://bit.ly/1PPaVHq
Time to Mars: http://bit.ly/1GBvEMx
Travel to other star systems: http://bit.ly/1Rw1meP
Types of civilizations: http://bit.ly/1MNhODO
Vestigial organs: http://bit.ly/1XT4PrU
Virtual reality devices: http://bit.ly/1g4Dpht
Wood charcoal: http://1.usa.gov/1w6qrre
Year Without a Summer: http://bit.ly/1hE9cGw

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 Mathew C. Anderson

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mathew has been exploring the boundaries of what it means to be

human since voluntarily stepping in wet cement while on the way
to his first kindergarten class. The adventures and lessons learned
since then have only become more unexpected and profound.

Mathew is currently a senior community manager in the computer

game industry. He also studies physics, astronomy, and related
areas, and often consults with game development studios on the
topics found in this book. His goal is to raise everyones awareness
on why our existence as a civilization is so precious.

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Our Cosmic Story

OUR COSMIC STORY

For more writings by the author, visit:

http://www.mathewanderson.com

Also follow on Twitter @MathewAnderson

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