AP Etoregobet
AP Etoregobet
AP Etoregobet
discrete dividends
P. tor and E. Gobet
Grenoble University and CNRS
Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann
51 rue des Mathmatiques
F - 38041 Grenoble cedex 9
pierre.etore@imag.fr, emmanuel.gobet@imag.fr
March 1, 2012
1
29 pages 2
Premia 14
Introduction
Usually, stocks pay dividends, which modeling is a non-trivial issue. This has also some
implications regarding the computational point of view, that is to efficiently price vanilla
options written on the stock and to quickly calibrate the stock model. If we use a deter-
ministic continuously paid dividend yield and assume that the asset dynamics is lognormal,
then we can extend the classical pricing Black-Scholes formula by minor modifications (see
equation (1.6)). Assuming continuous dividends is an approximation that can be justified
if one considers a large portfolio of stocks paying individually discrete dividends. However,
for a single stock, considering discrete dividends is more realistic and this is our frame-
work. Actually, our aim is to provide efficient approximation formulae for Call options
written on a single asset paying discrete dividends. For this, we follow an approach based
on stochastic expansions, using stochastic analysis tools, approach that has been similarly
developed in a series of papers [BGM09, BGM11, BGM10b, BGM10a].
In the literature, several works handle the issues of numerical computation of the call
price when dividends are discrete. Of course, a Monte Carlo approach is still possible,
whatever the asset model and the dividend model are, but usually it is not competitive
compared with analytical approximations or one-dimensional tree methods. Several works
[HHL03, VN06, VW09] rely on the dynamic programming equation between two successive
dividend dates, say ti and ti+1 . Namely, denote by C(t, S) the option price function at
time t for an asset equal to S, write di(S) for the (known) dividend policy modeling the
dividend paid at time ti (it depends on the asset): then, for a Markovian price process
(St )0tT and deterministic interest rates (rt )0tT we have
R ti+1
rs ds
C(ti , Sti ) = E(e ti
C(ti+1 , St di+1 (St ))|Sti ), (0.1)
i+1 i+1
the expectation being computed under the risk-neutral pricing measure. In [HHL03], the
authors discuss in details the proper choice of dividend policy. In addition, they compute
the price function C(., .) using integration methods to compute the expectation in (0.1),
for tractable dynamics of S (lognormal for instance). This numerical approach is exact
(up to integration error) but it is computationally intensive. In [VN06], for a piecewise
lognormal asset, the authors design a binomial tree method to solve (0.1). The main
difficulty in using a tree method is the a priori non-recombination of the nodes at the
dividend dates. The authors overcome this problem by using interpolation techniques
29 pages 3
between nodes. They also prove the convergence of their approximation, as the number of
steps in the tree method goes to infinity. Finally, in [VW09], still for a piecewise lognormal
model and for a fixed dividend policy di+1 (S) = i+1 , the authors expand the equality (0.1)
w.r.t. (i )i and provide an approximation formula involving the Black-Scholes formula
and its Greeks w.r.t. the spot. For n dividend dates, the number of BS price/greeks to
compute grows exponentially like 3n , as the number of dividend dates increase (in their
tests, the authors take n = 7, giving 2187 terms to evaluate); it may be very costly.
Another approach is developed by Bos, Gairat and Shepeleva in [BGS03]: they give an
approximation formula for the equivalent implied Black-Scholes volatility, in order to take
into account the dividends. It is obtained by a suitable average of the instantaneous
volatility of the asset paying dividends. After the submission of this article, we have been
aware of another work [SG10] based on a matching method in the case of fixed dividend
policy and lognormal model.
In this work, we derive an alternative expansion of the price function w.r.t. the div-
idends. The resulting approximation also writes as a combination of BS formulae and
Greeks w.r.t. the strike (and not the spot). Compared with [VW09], our second order
approximation formula requires the evaluation of only 45 BS price/greeks for 7 dividend
dates. Thus, at least regarding the computational cost, it improves [VW09] and it is similar
to [BGS03]. Moreover, our assumption on the dividend policy is less restrictive, see below.
In addition, the numerical results show an excellent accuracy of our formulae.
In the current work, the model for S is a piecewise lognormal model (with time-
dependent parameters) and the dividend policy is affine in S, i.e. including a fixed and a
proportional part:
di (S) = i + yiS.
One drawback of this model is that after a dividend payment, the asset price may become
negative because the relation di (S) S may be violated for small S. However, in most
of our numerical tests, the probability of such event is very small (see Tables 5 and 6);
presumably, it has a very small impact on the call price. Although this model of dividend
policy is quite simple, it is often used by practitioners. We also mention that for such
affine dividends, Buehler [Bue10] gives the necessary form of stochastic model for S, that
is coherent with the no-arbitrage assumption; this excludes our piecewise lognormal model.
Actually, our purpose is rather to expose our approximation method in a simple case, before
extending it (in further works) to more general models and piecewise affine dividends (that
are coherent with no-arbitrage, see [Reg09] for instance).
To obtain our approximations, we choose a model proxy obtained by averaging the
future dividends. Then we use stochastic expansion techniques in the spirit of the work
[BGM09, BGM11, BGM10b, BGM10a]. A significative part of effort is made to derive non
asymptotic error estimates, justifying the first order, second or third order approximation.
29 pages 4
This approach is quite flexible and we believe that this work paves the way for future
research in order to obtain analytical approximations of call price with discrete dividends
including Heston or local volatilities, or stochastic interest rate as well.
The organization of the paper is the following. In the next section, we define the model
and notations used throughout the work. In Section 2, we state our main approximation
results about first, second and third order approximation formulae for the call price. Ex-
tensions to the computation of the Delta are given as well. Section 3 is devoted to the
proof of technical results involving Malliavin calculus. Numerical tests are presented in
Section 4.
j=i+1
that j=n+1 (1 yj ) = 1 (so that n,n = 1).
Qn
In the error analysis, we use repeatedly the standard estimates E(supsT Ssk ) c S0k
for any k R.
D
recalling the definition i = i i,n DtTi . This is a shifted lognormal random variable, thus
RT
(y,)
the computation of E(e 0 rs ds (ST K)+ ) is still explicit, by taking the shifted strike
variable K (y,) (defined in (1.4)) in the Black-Scholes formula:
RT
(y,)
rs ds
E(e 0 (ST K)+ ) = CallBS 0,n S0 , K (y,) . (1.8)
RT
(y,)
The above quantity stands for the main term of our expansion formula of E(e 0 rs ds (ST
K)+ ) (see Theorems 2.3 and 2.4). The asymptotics underlying the expansion is supi i /S0
0 (small fixed dividends).
Our next purpose is now twofold: first, to provide correction terms, that will enable us
to achieve a remarkable accuracy. Second, to give tight error estimates w.r.t. the model
parameters.
2 Main results
Our analysis is based on Taylor expansions and smart computations of the correction terms
(y,)
using the proxy ST . In order to study the distance to the proxy, we use Lemma 1.1 and
equality (1.7) to write
n
(y,) (y,0) Dti MT
=ST (1 + 1)
X
ST i i,n
i=1 DT Mti
n
(y,) MT
=ST i ( 1). (2.1)
X
i=1 Mti
RT
(y,)
Our ultimate purpose is to approximate E(e 0 rs ds h(ST K)) for h(x) = x+ (that is
the Call price). Actually, the derivation of the approximation and the error estimation are
simpler when the function h is smoother than for Call/Put option. We start by this case
in subsection 2.1, for the convenience of the reader. Then, handling call payoffs h(x) = x+
requires more technicalities related to Malliavin calculus and we tackle this case later in
subsection 2.2 and section 3.
(Hk ) The function h(.) is (k1)-times continuously differentiable and the (k1)-th deriva-
tive is almost everywhere differentiable. Moreover, the derivatives are polynomially
bounded: for some positive constants C and p one has |h(x)| + kj=1 |xj h(x)|
P
RT
(y,)
First order approximation. We aim at approximating E(e 0 rs ds h(ST K)) for
functions h satisfying (H2 ) . Using a first order Taylor expansion we have
h RT i h RT i
(y,) (y,)
E e 0
rs ds
h(ST K) = E e 0
rs ds
h(ST K)
n
" #
RT
rs ds (y,) MT
(ST 1) + Error2 (h) (2.2)
X
i E e 0 h K)(
i=1 Mti
The second term on the right hand side can be rewritten using a derivative w.r.t. K (the
assumptions on h allow us to interchange derivation and expectation):
RT RT
(y,) (y,)
E[e 0
rs ds
h (ST K)] = K E[e 0
rs ds
h(ST K)]
RT
= k E[e rs ds
h(0,n ST k)] . (2.5)
0
k=K (y,)
This representation is useful for the call/put case to interpret expansion terms as Greeks
(and thus explicit terms).
Note that we have in general, for any multiplicative constant > 0, any strike k, and
any derivative of order m N of any sufficiently smooth function h,
RT RT
rs ds (m)
E[e 0 h (ST k)] = (1)m km E[e 0
rs ds
h(ST k)]. (2.6)
MT
Regarding to the first term in the r.h.s. of (2.4), we interpret the factor Mti
as a change
Rt
of measure on FT . Under the new induced measure Q , Wt =R Wt i
0 s 1ti sT ds is a
T
s2 ds
Brownian motion. Then, ST under Qi has the same law as ST e ti
under Q. Thus,
h RT
(y,) MT i
E e 0
rs ds
h (ST K) (2.7)
Mti
RT RT n
s2 ds
=E[e rs ds
h (0,n e
X
0 ti
ST i K)]
i=1
RT RT
s2 ds
rs ds
= k E[e h(0,n e ti
ST k)]
0
k=K (y,)
29 pages 9
using (2.6) at the last line. Combining the above equality with (2.5) and (2.4), and plugging
this into (2.2), we obtain our first main result.
Note that in the terms on the r.h.s. of the above equality, the function h is system-
atically evaluated at a shifted lognormal random variable. This allows for simple and
tractable one-dimensional numerical computations.
This approximation formula is a first-order expansion formula w.r.t. the fixed dividends
since the error is a O(supi i2 ).
Second order approximation. Applying the same kind of arguments, we can derive
another formula, which residual terms are of order three w.r.t. the fixed dividends.
1
RT RT RT
s2 ds+ s2 ds s2 ds
h RT i
rs ds
+ i j k2 E
X
e h(0,n e ti tj
ST k) e ti tj
0
2 1i,jn
k=K (y,)
n n RT RT
s2 ds
X X h i
2 j i k2 E e rs ds
h(0,n e ti
ST k)
0
k=K (y,)
j=1 i=1
n
!
X 2 h RT i
rs ds
+ j k2 E e h(0,n ST k) + Error3 (h), (2.9)
0
k=K (y,)
j=1
with |Error3 (h)| c(1 + S0p ) supi (i T ti )3 .
29 pages 10
Proof. The proof is similar to that of Theorem 2.1, except that the equality (2.2) is replaced
by a second order Taylor expansion. It gives
h RT i h RT i
(y,) (y,)
E e 0
rs ds
h(ST K) = E e 0
rs ds
h(ST K)
n
" #
RT
rs ds (y,) MT
(ST 1)
X
i E e 0 h K)(
i=1 Mti
!2
n
1 RT
(y,)
hM
T
i
+ E e 0 rs ds h (ST K) 1
X
i
2 i=1 Mti
+ Error3 (h)
where Error3 (h) c (1+S0p ) supi (i k M
MT
ti
1k4 )3 . Then, the announced estimate on Error3 (h)
easily follows by using (2.3).
Compared with the expansion in Theorem 2.1, it remains to transform the new contri-
bution with the factor 12 . This term is equal to
!2
n n
RT
(y,) MT X
E e rs ds
h (ST K)
X
0 i i
i=1 Mti i=1
" #
RT
rs ds (y,) MT MT
= (ST
X
i j E e 0 h K)
1i,jn Mti Mtj
n n
" #
RT
rs ds (y,) MT
2 (ST
X X
j i E e 0 h K)
j=1 i=1 Mti
2
n RT
rs ds (y,)
+ (ST
X
j E e 0 h K)
j=1
:=T1 + T2 + T3 .
We handle separately each of the three terms above.
Term T1 . We proceed analogously to the equality (2.7) by transforming this term via
MT MT
different changes of probability measure. Indeed, note that M = exp( 0T s (1ti sT +
R
t Mt i j
1 RT RT
1tj sT )dWs 2 ti
[s (1ti sT
+ 1tj sT )] ds) exp( defines (up to the sec- 2 2
ti tj s ds)
ond exponential factor) a change of measure Q under which (Wt 0t s (1ti sT +
i,j
R
(y,)
1tj sT )ds)t0 is a Brownian motion. It means that ST under Qi,j has the same
RT RT
s2 ds+ s2 ds
law as 0,n ST e under Q. Thus, we obtain
Pn
ti tj
l=1 l
n
" RT RT # RT
s2 ds+ s2 ds s2 ds
RT
rs ds
T1 = h (0,n e
X X
i j E e 0
ti tj
ST l K) e ti tj
1i,jn l=1
RT T R RT
2 ds+ s2 ds s2 ds
h RT i
rs ds
= i j k2 E ti s
X
e h(0,n e tj
ST k) e ti tj
,
0
k=K (y,)
1i,jn
29 pages 11
2 1i,jn
n n RT
s2 ds
X X
2 j i k2 CallBS (0,n S0 e ti
, K (y,) )
j=1 i=1
n
!
X 2
+ j k2 CallBS (0,n S0 , K (y,) ) + Error3 (Call), (2.13)
j=1
q 3
with |Error3 (Call)| c supi i
S0
1 ti
T
S0 T .
To state the error estimates, we have taken a specific form which allows to assert that
our approximation error is of order one or two w.r.t. supi i /S
R0
. This is especially clear for
R T T
At-The-Money options, for which 0,n S0 e 0 qs ds = K (y,) e 0
rs ds
. In that case, using the
Brenner-Subrahmanyam approximation [BS88] CallBS (x, k) = 12 x( v + o(v)) as v =
k=x
RT q 2
2
0 s ds goes to 0, we obtain that the relative ATM error is bounded by c supi i
S0
1 ti
T
q 3
(in Theorem 2.3) or c supi Si0 1 tTi (in Theorem 2.4). This indicates that the relative
accuracy of our approximation depends mainly of the ratio supi i /S0 and not much of the
other parameters. This is confirmed by the numerical results (see Section 4).
The results for put option are simply obtained by replacing the CallBS (.) function by
the PutBS (.) function. Then we observe that these approximations verify the Call-Put
parity relation.
29 pages 13
2. Second, we estimate the limsup of the error terms Error2 (hN ) and Error3 (hN ) as N
goes to infinity.
In this subsection, we only give details regarding Step 1. Step 2, involving Malliavin
calculus, is much more technical. We postpone it to the next section.
The justification of the Step 1 relies on the following Lemma.
Lemma 2.1. Assume (E), take > 0 and k > 0. Consider a sequence of measurable func-
tions (hN )N 1 and h having a polynomial growth uniformly in N, i.e. for some constants
C > 0 and p > 0 we have supxR |hN(1+|x|
(x)|+|h(x)|
p) C.
h i h i
i) Then, the functions k 7 E hN (ST k) and k 7 E h(ST k) are infinitely
continuously differentiable on ]0, [.
Proof. Under (E), the law of ST has an explicit density w.r.t. the Lebesgue measure. It
gives
qR
S0 x T
exp(x2 /2)
RT
s2 ds 12
Z
s2 ds
h i
E h(ST k) = h( e 0 0
k) dx
R DT 2
Z
= h(z)p(z + k)dz
k
RT RT
exp([log(uDT /(S0 ))+ 12 s2 ds]2 /[2 s2 ds])
where p(u) = 1u>0 q RT
0 0
. It is easy to check that p is
u 2 s2 ds
0
infinitely continuously differentiable on ]0, [ and that its derivatives at u = 0 are equal
R m
to 0. In addition, for
h any m N, i we have 0 |u p(u)|(1 + |u| )du < . These properties
p
easily imply that E h(ST k) is smooth w.r.t. k (i.e. statement i)) and that
h i Z
km E h(ST k) = h(z)zm p(z + k)dz.
k
iii) 0 hN (x) 1,
using the Black-Scholes formula (1.8) for the last equality. Moreover, using Lemma 2.1,
we obtain for any > 0
RT RT
lim k E(e 0
rs ds
hN (ST k)) = k E(e 0
rs ds
(ST k)+ )
N
= k CallBS S0 , k .
Thus, we can apply Theorem 2.1 with hN and pass to the limit as N goes to infinity. It
gives the expansion of Theorem 2.3, with
However, the upper bounds on Error2 (hN ) given in Theorem 2.1 involve hN and it does
not enable us to pass to the limit on the error estimates. In the next section, we prove
specific estimates using Malliavin calculus:
2 1i,jn
n n RT
s2 ds
X X
2 j i k2 CallBS (0,n S0 e ti
, K (y,) )
j=1 i=1
n
!
X 2
+ j k2 CallBS (0,n S0 , K (y,) )
j=1
1
RT RT RT
s2 ds+ s2 ds+ s2 ds
+
X
i j l e ti tj ti tl tj tl
6 1i,j,ln
RT RT RT
s2 ds+ s2 ds+ s2 ds
k3 CallBS (0,n S0 e ti tj tl
, K (y,) )
n RT RT RT
X s2 ds s2 ds+ s2 ds
3 k3 CallBS (0,n S0 e , K (y,) )
X
j i j e ti tj ti tj
j=1 1i,jn
n n
2 X RT
s2 ds
X
+3 j i k3 CallBS (0,n S0 e ti
, K (y,) )
j=1 i=1
n
!
X 3
j k3 CallBS (0,n S0 , K (y,) )
j=1
+ Error4 (Call),
q 4
with |Error4 (Call)| c supi i
S0
1 ti
T
S0 T .
RT
(y,)
Theorem 2.6. Assume (D) and (E). Let = S0 E(e 0 rs ds (ST K)+ ) be the Delta
of the Call option of strike K on the multidividend asset. We have
(
= 0,n x CallBS (0,n S0 , K (y,,) )
n RT
s2 ds
+ i k,x
2
CallBS (0,n S0 e , K (y,,) )
X
ti
i=1
2
k,x CallBS (0,n S0 , K (y,,))
1
RT RT RT
s2 ds s2 ds+ s2 ds
+ i j 3
CallBS (0,n S0 e , K (y,,) )
X
e ti tj
k,k,x ti tj
2 1i,jn
n n RT
s2 ds
X X
2 j i 3
k,k,x CallBS (0,n S0 e ti
, K (y,,) )
j=1 i=1
n
X 2 )
+ j 3
k,k,x CallBS (0,n S0 , K (y,,) )
j=1
+ Error3 (Digital),
q 3
with |Error3 (Digital)| c supi i
S0
1 ti
T
.
Remark 2.1. The third order error is denoted Error3 (Digital) because, up to multiplicative
R T
constants, the Delta is of the form, = E(e 0
rs ds
1S (y,,) >K ), that is the price of a Digital
T
Call option with S (y,,) as an asset to be described in the following sketch of proof.
RT
Remark 2.2. We recall that x CallBS (x, k) = e 0 qs ds N (d+ (x, k)). The other greeks are
easily computed from (2.10), (2.11). We skip details.
Proof. We only give the main lines. Details can be treated adapting the proofs of Theorems
2.2 and 2.4.
(y,)
Step 1. Taking into account Lemma 1.1, the pathwise derivative of ST w.r.t. S0 is
ST 0,n
0,n S0 = DT MT . Thus, interchanging derivation and expectation,
0,n RT
= E(e 0 rs ds 1S (y,) >K MT ).
DT T
n n
ST ST
RT RT
(y,,) s2 ds s2 ds
:= 0,n ST e = 0,n (2.15)
X X
ST 0 i i,n e ti
ST i i,n ,
i=1 Sti i=1 Sti
under Q. Thus,
0,n RT
(y,,)
= E(e 0 rs ds h(ST
K)), (2.16)
DT
with h(x) = 1x>0 .
29 pages 18
Step 2. From (2.16), we see that the evaluation of the Delta is reduced to that of the
price of a digital Call written on an asset S (y,,) with new dividend parameters (i,n
)i
(compare Lemma 1.1 and (2.15)). Then, the derivation of an approximation formula is
similar to what we have done in Theorem 2.2 and 2.4. Briefly, we take a sequence of
smooth functions (hN := 12 (tanh(N .) + 1))N converging to h almost everywhere, and we
apply Theorem 2.2 and Lemma 2.1. It gives
"
0,n h R T rs ds
i
= Ee 0 h(0,n ST K (y,,) )
DT
n RT RT
s2 ds
h i
+ i k E e rs ds
X
h(0,n e ti
ST k)
0
k=K (y,,)
i=1
RT !
h i
rs ds
k E e h(0,n ST k)
0
k=K (y,,)
1
RT RT RT
s2 ds+ s2 ds s2 ds
h RT i
rs ds
+ i j k2 E
X
e 0 h(0,n e ti tj
ST k) e ti tj
2 1i,jn
k=K (y,,)
n n RT RT
s2 ds
X X h i
2 j i k2 E e 0
rs ds
h(0,n e ti
ST k)
k=K (y,,)
j=1 i=1
n
!#
X 2 h RT i
+ j k2 E e rs ds
h(0,n ST k) + lim Error3 (hN ).
0
k=K (y,,) N
j=1
uniformly in N, using |hN | = 1 (see Remark 3.1). This gives the upper bound for
Error3 (Digital).
Step 3. It remains to relate the correction terms to the Black-Scholes formula. Actually,
for any multiplicative constant > 0 and any positive strike k, we have
0,n h R T rs ds i RT
0 qs ds
Ee 0 S >k = 0,n e
10,n N (d (0,n S0 , k))
DT T
RT
= 0,n e 0
qs ds
N (d+ (0,n S0 , k))
= 0,n x CallBS (0,n S0 , k).
Lemma 3.2. Assume (D) and (E). We have for all 0 1, F1 p1 Lp (). In
T
addition,
1
p 1, 0 1, kF1 k2,p cp 2 2 .
T S0 T
Lemma 3.3. Let (Nt )0tT be a Brownian martingale with a bounded bracket, and assume
that JT = NT 21 hNiT is in D2, . Then for all r 1, one has
keJT 1k2,r cr kJT k2,2r 1 + kJT k2,4r + kJT k21,8r e2r sup hN iT .
29 pages 20
We are now in a position to complete the proof of Propositions 2.1 and 2.2. Let us
start with Error2 (hN ): by Fubinis theorem, it is equal to
RT Z 1 h MT MT i
e rs ds
(1 )E ( 1)( 1)hN (FT K) d. (3.4)
X
0 i j
1i,jn 0 Mti Mtj
We now control (uniformly in and N) the above expectations. To remove the singularity
problem of hN , we apply an integration by parts of Malliavin calculus. Indeed, from [Nua06,
Proposition 2.1.4], one knows that for 1 i, j n and 0 1 there exists Hij1, D ,
MT MT
depending only on FT and ( M t
1)( M t
1), such that
i j
MT MT
E ( 1)( 1)hN (FT K) = E hN (FT K)Hij1, . (3.5)
Mti Mtj
MT MT
This is justified by the fact that ( M t
1)( M t
1) D , FT is in D and is non degenerate
i j
(Lemma 3.2) under the assumption (E). Our task then becomes to find an upper bound,
uniformly in , i, j, for kHij1, kp , for all p. Using the discussion in [Nua06, p.102] we have
MT MT
kHij1, kp cp kF1 k1,4p kD. (FT )k1,4p k( 1)( 1)k1,2p . (3.6)
T Mti Mtj
Considering Lemma 3.2 it remains to estimate the two last terms of the r.h.s. above. By
definition, we have
Z T Z T Z T q/2
kD. (FT )kq1,q = E|( |Dr (FT )|2 dr)1/2 |q + E 2
|Ds,r (FT )|2 dr ds .
0 0 0
Then by standard inequalities combined with Lemma 3.1, we get for any q
kD. (FT )k1,q cq S0 T . (3.7)
On the other hand, using Hlder type inequalities on k.kk,p -norms (see [Nua06, Proposition
1.5.6]), we have
MT MT MT MT
k( 1)( 1)k1,q c1,q k 1k1,2q k 1k1,2q .
Mti Mtj Mti Mtj
In order to apply Lemma 3.3, we define the Brownian martingale Nt = 0t s 1ti sT dWs
R
which bracket is bounded by 2 (T ti ). Using the notation of Lemma 3.3, notice that
1 MT
eJT = eNT 2 hN iT = M ti
. Clearly kJT k2,r cr T ti . Then from Lemma 3.3, it readily
follows that
MT q
k 1k2,r cr T ti . (3.8)
Mti
MT MT
q
In particular, it gives k( M t
1)( Mt
1)k 1,q c q 2
T ti T tj .
i j
29 pages 21
We combine the latter inequality with (3.6), (3.7), Lemma 3.2 and we obtain for any
i, j, p
q
T ti T tj
kHij1,kp cp ,
S0 T
uniformly in . Plugging this estimate into (3.5) (and using |hN | = 1) leads to
q
T t T tj
MT M T i
E ( 1)( 1)hN (FT K) c .
Mti Mtj S0 T
supi (i T ti )2
In view of (3.4), we have proved that |Error2 (hN )| c S0 T
. Proposition 2.1 is
proved.
The proof of Proposition 2.2 is very similar and we only give the main intermediate
estimates. Analogously to the identity (3.5), we have
RT 1 (1 )2
Z
rs ds
Error3 (h, N) =
X
e 0 i j l
1i,j,ln 0 2
MT h MT MT i
E ( 1)( 1)( 1)h
N (FT K) d
Mti Mtj Mtl
RT Z 1 (1 )2 h i
2,
= e 0 rs ds i j l E hN (FT K)Hijl (3.9)
X
.
1i,j,ln 0 2
Furthermore, applying the general estimates from [Nua06, p.102] combined with (3.8), we
obtain
2,
|Error3 (h, N)| c i j l sup kHijk
X
k1
1i,j,ln [0,1]
!
MT MT MT
i j l sup kF1 k22,8 kD. (FT )k22,8 1)( 1)( 1)k2,2
X
c k(
1i,j,ln [0,1] T Mti Mtj Mtl
1 2 3q q q
i j l 2 2 2 (S0 T ) T ti T tj T tl
X
c
1i,j,ln (S0 T )
q
c sup(i T ti )3 2 .
i S0 T
We are finished.
Remark 3.1. In the proof of Theorem 2.6 we have to control uniformly in N, |Error3 (hN )|,
with (hN )N approximating h(x) = 1x>0 , and satisfying |hN | = 1. Compared with the proof
of Proposition 2.2, we have to use
h MT MT MT i h
3,
i
E( 1)( 1)( 1)h
N (FT
K) = E hN (FT
K)H ijl .
Mti Mtj Mtl
29 pages 22
Indeed we cannot have a uniform control on hN here. Similarly to the proofs above, we
have
3,
sup[0,1] kHijk k1 c kF1 k33,16 kD. (FT )k33,16 k( M
MT
t
MT
1)( M t
MT
1)( M t
1)k3,2
T i j l
1 3 3 q
c (S 0 T ) T ti T tj T tl
(S02 2 T )3
n
MT Dt MT
Dt (FT ) = S0 0,n
X
t 1tT i i,n i t 1ti <tT ,
DT i=1 DT Mti
n
2 MT Dt MT
(FT ) = S0 0,n
X
Dt,r t r 1t,rT i i,n i t r 1ti <t,rT ,
DT i=1 DT Mti
n
3 MT Dt MT
(FT ) = S0 0,n
X
Dt,r,s t r s 1t,r,sT i i,n i t r s 1ti <t,r,sT .
DT i=1 DT Mti
Proof of Lemma 3.2. It is enough to consider the case p 2. Take [0, 1].
Step 1. We first estimate F1 in Lp . We have
T
Z T
FT = kDFT k2H = |Ds (FT )|2 ds (3.10)
0
n
T i 2
Z
ST2 2
X
0,n
i,n 1ti sT ds
0 i=1 Sti
2
1
ST2 2 0,n
2
t1 + 1 (T 1n=1 + t2 1n>1 t1 ) . (3.11)
(1 y1 )St 1
1
( )
1
A1 =
1+ (1 y1 )St1
29 pages 23
where the parameter will be set at a positive value close to 0. Then, on this event, we
have
1
1 1 > 0.
(1 y1 )St1 1+ 1+
Thus, on A1 , we obtain
FT 2
t1 + (T 1n=1 + t2 1n>1 t1 )
2
ST2 2 0,n (1 + )2
2 2
(T 1n=1 + t2 1n>1 ) (1 T )
(1 + )2 (1 + )2
using if n > 1 that t2 1.
We now estimate P(Ac1 ) by leveraging the assumption S0 (1 y1 ) < 1 . Using that St1
has a lognormal distribution, we obtain
1 (1 + )
!
P(Ac1) = P Mt1 < Dt1
S0 (1 y1 )
1 1 t1 2 1 (1 + )
" Z #!
= N R t1 2 1/2 log(Dt1 ) + ds + log( ) .
( 0 s ds) 2 0 s S0 (1 y1 )
#2
1 1
"
P(Ac1 ) exp 2 |r q| t1 + 2 t1 + C cp 1 ( 2 t1 )p ,
2 t1 2
c E(Fp ) + E(F2p p
kDF kH )
T
+ E(F2p 2 p
kD F kH 2 )
T
+ E(F3p 2p
kDF kH ),
T
T T T T
that is
kF1 k2,p c kF1 kp + kF1 k24p
kDFT kH
T T T 2p
2
+ kF1 k24p
kD 2FT kH 2
+ kF1 k36p
kDFT kH
. (3.13)
T 2p T 4p
One the other hand, using Minkowski and Hlder inequalities combined with Lemma 3.3,
from (3.10) we derive
Z T
1/2 Z T 1/2
kDF kH
=
|Dt FT |2 dt
kDt FT k22p dt
T 2p 0 p 0
Z T Z T 1/2
k 2Ds FT Dt,s
2
FT dsk22p dt
0 0
Z T Z T 1/2
( 2
2kDs FT k4p kDt,s FT k4p ds)2 dt c S02 3 T 3/2 .
0 0
Similarly, we obtain
Z T Z T Z T 1/2
kD 2 F kH 2
( 2
kDt,r [(Ds FT )2 ]k2p ds)2 dtdr c S02 4 T 2 .
T 2p 0 0 0
Plugging the above inequalities and the estimate (3.12) into (3.13) yields
kF1 k2,p c kF1 kp + kF1 k24p
kDFT kH
T T T 2p
2
+ kF1 k24p
kD 2 FT kH 2
+ kF1 k36p
kDFT kH
.
T 2p T 4p
1 1 1
!
c 2 2 1 + 2 2 S02 3 T 3/2 + S02 4 T 2 + 2 2 2 (S02 4 T 2 )2
S0 T S0 T (S0 T )
1
c 2 2 .
S0 T
The proof is complete.
keuJT k2r
2,2r = E([e
uJT 2r
] ) + EkDeuJT k2r 2 uJT 2r
H + EkD e k H 2
E(e2ruJT ) + E(e2ruJT kDJT k2r
H ) + E(e
2ruJT
(kD 2 JT kH 2 + kDJT k2H )2r )
c keuJT k2r 2r 4r
4r (1 + kJT k2,4r + kJT k1,8r ). (3.15)
1
Finally, since (epuNt 2 hpuN it )t defines an exponential martingale (for any fixed p), one has
1 1 1 2 p2
keuJT kpp = E[epu(NT 2 hN iT ) ] = E[epuNT 2 hpuN iT + 2 hN iT (pu+(pu) ) ] e 2 sup hN iT
.
Plugging this estimate into (3.15) and (3.14), we get the announced result.
4 Numerical experiments
In all our tests we use as benchmark a Monte Carlo price computed with 2.109 drawings,
and control variates (column "Monte Carlo" in the tables). The control variates consist in
European options with the same parameters except that 0 (see the discussion after
Lemma 1.1). In the tables the numbers between parentheses in the Monte Carlo columns
refer to the half width of the 95% confidence interval around the computed prices.
We wish first to compare our results with the ones of recent papers in the literature
(namely [BGS03, VN06, VW09]). In Table 1, the abbrevations EG3, VNRE, VN1000, VW
and BGS refer respectively to our method with the order three formula, the method of
Vellekoop and Nieuwenhuis with Richardson Extrapolation, their method without extrap-
olation and 1000 time steps (both in [VN06]), the method in [VW09] and the method in
[BGS03]. The example is the one treated in these last three papers: till time maturity
T = 7.0 we have 7 dividend payment dates 0 < t1 < . . . < t7 < T with ti+1 ti = 1 for
all 1 i < 7. We test the cases t1 = 0.1, 0.5 and 0.9. The successive i s are 6, 6.5, 7,
7.5, 8, 8 and 8. We have y 0. The coefficients (rt )t , (qt )t and (t )t are constant, with
r = 6%, q = 0% and = 25%. We take S0 = 100 and test the strikes K = 70, 100 and 130.
These tests show that the accuracy of our method is better than the one of VN1000
and BGS and similar to the one of VW. However the VNRE method seems to be the most
accurate.
29 pages 26
But note that, for n dividend payment dates, the number of terms to compute in our
order two and three formulae are respectively
As the volatility increases we observe a loss of accuracy on the prices computed with
EG1, while for EG2 and EG3 the accuracy remains nearly the same. This suggests that
our method is quite robust to variations of the volatility.
In Table 3 we set = 25%, the other parameters as in Table 2, and test the influence
of the amplitude of the i s. We take i = for all 1 i n and test the values = 2, 6, 10.
With 2 the results of EG1, EG2 and EG3 are accurate up to one basis point on
implied volatilities (even if EG1 seems to be a bit less accurate on the prices themselves).
With 6 both EG2 and EG3 match the implied volatilities, but we observe a slightly
difference of accuracy on the prices. With 10 only EG3 still performs well to match
prices and implied volatilities. Note that, as expected the solvers are always more accurate
at the money.
Finally, in Table 4 we investigate the influence of n, keeping = 25% constant, and
the other parameters as in Table 2, except 4. We choose n = 3, 5 , 10, which is related
to testing the influence of the maturity T = n.
29 pages 27
With n = 3 the solvers EG2 and EG3 perfectly match the implied volatilities. The
solver EG1 is accurate up to 2 bp on implied volatilities, which is generally sufficient for
calibration purposes. As expected, with n = 10 a loss of accuracy can be observed (both
on prices and implied volatilities). Even with EG3 the implied volatilities can fail to match
the ones corresponding to Monte Carlo prices. Some computed prices are slightly outside
the Monte Carlo confidence interval (especially for in the money options).
Note that similar tests show no significative influence of the parameters yi on the results:
for = 0.25 and the other parameters as in Table 2 , EG2 and EG3 both match the implied
volatility with 0 bp error, whatever the value of the yi s.
Note also that we have used our Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the probabilities
(y,)
that ST < 0. Indeed, with the affine type dividend model there is no guarantee that
this never occurs. The numerical results show that this probability increases with and n
(see Tables 5 and 6). For n = 10 this probability is larger than 2% (in the results of Table
1 this estimated probability is also about 2%: indeed the dividends are of high amplitude
and n = 7). This suggests that the dividend model itself has to be refined as S (y,) is close
to zero.
5 Conclusion
In this work, we have derived approximation formulae for the vanilla option prices written
on an asset paying discrete dividends, under lognormality assumptions. Numerical tests
show that the second order approximation (Theorem 2.4) is accurate enough for usual val-
ues of the fixed part of dividends (that is few % of the spot value) and for maturities smaller
than five years. For larger dividends or longer maturities, the third order approximation
(Theorem 2.5) yields additional accuracy. Moreover, compared with other methods, these
expansions are quicker to evaluate (or as quick as [BGS03]). Finally, we mention several
possible extensions. Combining the stochastic expansion approaches recently developed
in [BGM09, BGM11, BGM10b, BGM10a] with the current work, we could generalize the
closed formulae to local or stochastic volatility models, including Gaussian stochastic in-
terest rates. This is left to further research.
29 pages 28
(y,) (y,) ST ST
ST =(1 yn+1)Stn+1 n+1
Stn+1 Stn+1
n n n
ST Y Stn+1
=(1 yn+1) (1 yi ) Stn+1 (1 yj )
X Y
i
Stn+1 i=1 i=1 j=i+1 Sti
ST
n+1
Stn+1
n+1 n n S ST
T
= (1 yi ) ST i (1 yn+1 ) (1 yj )
Y X Y
n+1
i=1 i=1 j=i+1 Sti Stn+1
n+1 n+1 n+1 S
T
X
= (1 yi ) ST (1 yj )
Y Y
i .
i=1 i=1 j=i+1 Sti
References
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29 pages 30
Table 1: European Call option prices, with = 25%, r = 6%, q = 0%, S0 = 100.
29 pages 31
Table 2: European Call option prices, with r = 6%, q = 0%, S0 = 100, n = 3, y 0.02
and 2.
29 pages 32
Table 3: European Call option prices, with = 25%, r = 6%, q = 0%, S0 = 100, n = 3,
y 0.02.
29 pages 33
Table 4: European Call option, with = 25%, r = 6%, q = 0%, S0 = 100, y 0.02, 4.
29 pages 34
2 6 10
(y,)
P(ST < 0) 0 2.1019 9.106
(y,)
Table 5: P(ST < 0), with = 25%, r = 6%, q = 0%, S0 = 100, n = 3 and y 0.02.
n 3 5 10
(y,)
P(ST < 0) 0 6.106 0.03
(y,)
Table 6: P(ST < 0), with = 25%, r = 6%, q = 0%, S0 = 100, 4 and y 0.02.