Rafael Hartke
Rafael Hartke
Rafael Hartke
2
SCHEDULE
An Overview of PETROBRAS
Conclusion
Final Remarks
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MOTIVATION AND OBJETIVE
Motivation:
New projects and new exploratory frontier present a whole new level
of complexity new techs, partnerships, optionalities, multi-fields...
4
MOTIVATION AND OBJETIVE
Objective:
Present PETROBRAS
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An Overview of PETROBRAS
PETROBRAS: AN INVESTMENT GRADE, PUBLICLY TRADED, MAJOR
INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANY
7
A WORLD-CLASS, PUBLIC, INTEGRATED ENERGY COMPANY
3.9 3.9
2009 Oil & Gas Production Gas Production boe/d
3.2
Oil Production boe/d
2.7
2.5
(mmboe/d)
2.5
2.2
1.7
84%
(oil) 0.6
3 15
6, 271
(US$ bn)
224
18 3 16 3
3, 639
12 9 12 1
2, 902 2. 666
87 85
2 , 5 9 42 , 2 2 3 2 , 1 5 8 67
747
311
X OM P BR RDS CV X BP T OT E NI C OP ST L
Source: PFC Energy
X ODecember
*Report M R D S2009C O P BP T OT PBR CVX ENI STL Source: Bloomberg
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Note: Peer companies selected above have a majority of capital traded in the public markets.
PETROBRAS CURRENT INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE
2009
2009 -- Brazil
Brazil
-- Production:
Production:
OilOil and
and LNG:
LNG: 1.971
1.971 thous.
thous. bpd
bpd
Natural
Natural Gas:
Gas: 317
317 thous.
thous. bpd
bpd
Oil Products: 1.823 thous. bpd
-- Proven
Proven Reserves:
Reserves: 14,2
14,2 million
million boe
boe
(SPE
(SPE Criteria)
Criteria)
-- Distribution
Distribution market
market share:
share: 38.6%
38.6%
- Ethanol Exportation: 362.000 m
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OFFSHORE DEEPWATER PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
1977
Enchova
410ft
1988
Marimb
1610ft
TUPI
WATER DEPTH = 7,125 ft 1994
TOTAL DRILLING DEPTH = 17,431 ft Marlin
3,370ft
TIBER 2009
WATER DEPTH = 4,134 ft Tiber
1997
TOTAL DEPTH = 35,055 ft 4,134 ft Marlin Sul
5,600ft
2003
Roncador
6,180 ft 2009 2010
Tupi Cascade
7,125 ft Chinok
8,250ft
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BUSINESS PLAN 2010-14: US$ 224 BILLION
Increased investment for integrated operations in Brazil
Business Segment
(US$ Billion)
Brazil and Abroad
1% 2% (US$ Billion)
1%
2% 3.5
8% 5.1 3.5 International
2.5 2.8 5%
17.8 11.7
118.8
53%
73.6 212.3
33%
95%
Brazil
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Upstream Business Segment
DOMESTIC UPSTREAM PROFILE
57% 57%
Onshore Shallow water (0-300m) Deep water (300-1500m) Ultra-deep water (> 1500m)
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Source: Petrobras
DOMESTIC PROVEN RESERVES PROFILE
Non-
Non-Associated Gas
43%
Undeveloped 57% Developed
Proven Reserves Proven Reserves
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MORE FIELDS ANDS BLOCKS WITH PARTNERS
o Petrobras current domestic production comes mainly from fields (97%) owned by the company
alone
o In blocks under development, 62% of blocks without partners
o More than half (53%) of the blocks under exploration or appraisal are joint ventures
97% 53%
38%
62%
47%
3%
Petrobras (100%)
Petrobras in Partnerships 34 Oil and Gas Companies (2008)
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SINN, July 2009
UPSTREAM PORTFOLIO AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
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MAIN PROJECTS 2010-2014
Updated business plan added new projects
Mexilho
Mexilho Marlim
Marlim Sul
Sul Guar
Guar Pilot
Pilot FPSO
FPSO Tupi
Tupi NE
NE Pilot
Pilot
NG Early
Early production
production of
of
NG 120,000
120,000 bpd
bpd FPSO
FPSO
SS
SS P-56
P-56 Baleia
Baleia Azul
Azul 120,000
120,000 bpd
bpd
Module FPSO
FPSO Espadarte
Espadarte
Urugu/Tamba
Urugu/Tamba Module 33
Th. bpd 100,000 100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd
FPSO
FPSO Cidade
Cidade de
de Santos
Santos 100,000 bpd
bpd
NG/35,000bpd
NG/35,000bpd
2,980
Tupi
Tupi Pilot
Pilot
2800 Cidade
Cidade de
de Angra
Angra dos
dos
Reis
Reis
100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd
Cachalote
Cachalote ee
Baleia
Baleia Franca
Franca
2400 FPSO
FPSO Capixaba
Capixaba Roncador
Roncador Papa-Terra
Papa-Terra Roncador
Roncador
100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd SS
SS P-55
P-55 TLWP
TLWP P-61
P-61 && FPSO
FPSO P-62
P-62
Module
Module 33 FPSO
FPSO P-63
P-63 Module
Module 44
180,000
180,000 bpd
bpd 150,000
150,000 bpd
bpd 180,000
180,000 bpd
bpd
2,100
2000 Tupi
Tupi NE
NE EWT
EWT Jubarte
Jubarte Tiro/Sidon Whales
Tiro/Sidon Whales Park
Park
30.000
30.000 bpd
bpd FPSO
FPSO P-57
P-57 FPSO FPSO
FPSO FPSO P-58
P-58
Guar EWT 180,000
180,000 bpd
bpd 100,000
Guar EWT 100,000 bpd
bpd 180,000
180,000 bpd
bpd
Dynamic
Dynamic Producer
Producer
30,000
30,000 bpd
bpd
Aruan
Aruan Guaiam
Guaiam
Tiro
Tiro EWT
EWT
1600 SS-11
SS-11
FPSO
FPSO FPSO
FPSO
100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd 100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd
30,000
30,000 bpd
bpd
Aruan
Aruan EWT
EWT
Cidade
Cidade Rio
Rio das
das Ostras
Ostras 44 EWT
EWT 44 EWT
EWT 33 EWT
EWT 22 EWT
EWT
15,000
15,000 bpd
bpd Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt
1200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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Risk Analysis of Offshore Multi-Field Oil Production Project in Brazil
Taxation of Offshore Oil Production in Brazil
R&D ~ 1%
Area Rental ~ 0%
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Special Participation
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PROGRIDE
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PROGRIDE
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PROGRIDE Interface
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PROGRIDE Main results
Payback Period
Financial exposure
Government take
Value @ Risk
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Offshore Multi-Field Oil Production Projects in Brazil
FPSO
Field
Field B
A
Integrated Project
A+B
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Offshore Multi-Field Oil Production Projects in Brazil
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Offshore Multi-Field Oil Production Projects in Brazil
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Offshore Multi-Field Oil Production Projects in Brazil
Some risk factors are shared among fields (Oil price, FPSO CAPEX)
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PROGRIDE Main limitations
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So
Weve got a complex tax system for offshore oil production projects
Weve got a corporate tool for Risk Analysis (and we must use it!)
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Possible solutions
Adapt PROGRIDE
using @RISK!!!
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Risk Analysis in Multi-field Oil Production Projects
@RISK+PROGRIDE Integration:
Use @RISK to create a stand-alone set of risk scenarios for the shared
risk factors (Oil price, FPSO CAPEX)
Progride Progride
for Field A for Field B
(deterministic) (deterministic)
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@RISK+PROGRIDE Integration
Progride Progride
for Field A for Field B
(deterministic) (deterministic)
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@RISK+PROGRIDE Integration
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@RISK+PROGRIDE Integration
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Risk Analysis in Multi-field Oil Production Projects Results
NPV histogram:
NPV < 0 N P V < D e te r m in is tic
0 ,2 % 4 7 ,3 %
0,0 0 0 3 0 Results here...
0,0 0 0 2 5
0,0 0 0 2 0
0,0 0 0 1 5
0,0 0 0 1 0
0,0 0 0 0 5
0,0 0 0 0 0
- 2 0 00 0 20 0 0 4 0 00 N P V6 [U
0 0S0$ M M ] 8000 1 0 00 0 12000 14000
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@RISK+PROGRIDE Integration some notes
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@RISK+PROGRIDE Integration some notes
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Conclusion
41
Final Remarks
42
Information:
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