water

Editorial
Water Resource Variability and Climate Change
Yingkui Li 1, * and Michael A. Urban 2
1 Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA
2 Department of Geography, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211, USA; UrbanM@missouri.edu
* Correspondence: yli32@utk.edu; Tel.: +1-865-974-0595

Academic Editor: Arjen Y. Hoekstra

Received: 11 July 2016; Accepted: 12 August 2016; Published: 17 August 2016

Abstract: A significant challenge posed by changing climates is how water cycling and surficial
and subsurface water availability will be affected at global and regional scales. Such alterations
are critical as they often lead to increased vulnerability in ecosystems and human society.
Understanding specifically how climate change affects water resource variability in different locations
is of critical importance to sustainable development in different parts of the world. The papers
included in this special issue focus on three broad perspectives associated with water resource
variability and climate change. Six papers employ remote sensing, meteorological station-based
observational data, and tree-ring records to empirically determine how water resources have been
changing over historical time periods. Eight of the contributions focus on modeling approaches
to determine how known processes are likely to manifest themselves as climate shifts over time.
Two others focus on human perceptions and adaptation strategies in the midst of unstable or unsettled
water availability. The findings and methods presented in this collection of papers provide important
contributions to the increased study and awareness of climate change on water resources.

Keywords: water resource variability; climate change; hydrological model; perception and adaptation
of climate change

1. Introduction
Climate change and increased anthropogenic pressure on earthatmosphere interactions affect
water quantity, quality, and water-related processes, such as sediment yield, on local, regional,
and global scales [13]. Recent decades have seen continuously increasing temperatures in most
parts of the world, and changes in precipitation patterns have increased the frequency of extreme
climate events such as drought and flooding [4]. The impact of changing baseline conditions coupled
with increased variability can be especially complicated in regions with rapid changes in population,
land development (especially urbanization), and economic disruptions. While public discussions
often focus more on temperature than water availability, ecosystems and human society are highly
vulnerable to water stress [58]. Understanding the mechanisms and geographic patterns by which
anthropogenic climate change is impacting water resource variability is of critical importance to
sustainable development, environmental management, and human health.
A variety of approaches have been used to examine the relationships between atmospheric
variability and surficial water resources. Instrumental data collected from meteorological and
hydrological gauging stations can be used to investigate altered hydrologic regimes over the timespan
of several decades to a few centuries in certain areas. Relatively long-term (hundreds to thousands of
years) climate and environmental records can be reconstructed using various proxies such as tree rings,
sediment cores, ice cores, and landform features [9,10]. More recently, the availability of various remote
sensing datasets, such as Landsat/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery,
ICESAT (Ice, Clouds, and Land Elevation Satellite) altimetry, GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate

Water 2016, 8, 348; doi:10.3390/w8080348 www.mdpi.com/journal/water

Water 2016, 8, 348 2 of 7

Experiment) gravity, and LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) measurements have facilitated remote
sensing-based approaches to quantifying water resource changes [1113]. Computational modeling
approaches, ranging from global circulation models (GCMs) to regional or watershed hydrological
models, are serving to simulate and forecast the projected nature of climate variability on water
resources [14,15]. Social scientists have also been investigating how groups or local communities
perceive the impacts of climate change and climate vulnerability in order to implement better
adaptation practices and sustainable development in coping with changing water resources of different
regions [16,17].
The papers included in this special issue address three broad perspectives associated with water
resource variability and climate change: (1) the quantification of water resource variability altered
by changing climates using remote sensing assessment, meteorological station-based observational
datasets, and tree-ring record reconstruction; (2) the simulation of such impacts on water resource
variability using modeling approaches; and (3) evaluating social perceptions and adaptation strategies
in the face of unstable water resource variability. The following section summarizes the individual
contributions within each perspective.

2. Contributions
Six of the papers assess the various impacts of climate change on water resources using a variety
of datasets, empirical observations, and proxies. Li et al. [18] examine surface area fluctuations
occurring in 10 major lakes in the arid province of Xinjiang, China, from 2000 to 2014 using MODIS
time series imagery. The authors develop a classification method to accommodate varied spectral
characteristics of water pixels and derived water bodies for April, July, and September in each
year for 10 major lakes (>100 km2 ) in the study area. Lakes in the lowland (close to urban and
agriculture areas) showed a shrinking trend, while mountain lakes have diverse changing patterns
(some shrinking, some expanding), and lakes on the Tibetan Plateau exhibited significant expanding
trends. By observing varied patterns of lake surface changes across the region, the authors conclude
that observed lake expansion is likely driven by rising temperature, leading to accelerated melting
of snow and glaciers in high mountains and on the Tibetan Plateau, and increased precipitation in
this region (especially in 2010), whereas the shrinking of some lakes is likely related to anthropogenic
utilization based on agricultural and industrial needs.
Ning et al. [19] analyze recent changes in water resources and grassland in the Hulun Lake region,
a semi-arid region in northeastern China, using monthly GRACE and Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission (TRMM) data. Results indicate decreasing trends in overall water storage and precipitation
between 2002 and 2007, followed by increasing trends in the period from 2007 to 2012. Water storage
trends are mainly correlated to precipitation and temperature patterns. As a result, a large proportion
of grassland recovered to its normal state in 20082012, and only a small proportion of grassland
(16.5% of the study area) is classified as degraded. The authors conclude that degraded grassland areas
in the region are more vulnerable to climate variability and require protective strategies to prevent
further degradation.
Buma et al. [20] assess observed changes in hydrological conditions of Lake Chad basin based
on the total water storage (TWS) derived from GRACE, lake levels taken from satellite altimetry,
and water fluxes and soil moisture obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS).
The authors observe a similar pattern between TWS and lake level changes and subsurface water
volume changes. The derived values for subsurface water volume changes are found to be consistent
with groundwater outputs calculated from the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM).
By utilizing recently developed remote sensing datasets, this study provides an alternative means of
generating information for the management of water resources in the Lake Chad basin.
Jiang et al. [21] summarize the changing patterns, causes, and implications of surface water
discharge and sediment load in Chinese rivers from 1956 to 2012 based on monthly hydrological and
daily meteorological data obtained from 725 rain gauge stations across the country. Numerous patterns
Water 2016, 8, 348 3 of 7

can be observed during this period. Streamflow discharges manifest a decreasing trend, a relatively
stable state, and an increasing trend within northern, southern, and western China, respectively.
Excepting the Lancang River and Yarlung Zangbo River basins, sediment loads in most Chinese river
basins show gradually decreasing trends, especially after 2000. Although patterns of streamflow and
sediment load are affected by the interaction of varied meso-scale climate systemsincluding East and
South Asian monsoons and westerliesthe authors determine that water consumption for industrial
and residential purposes, soil, and water conservation engineering, hydraulic engineering, and land
surface changes induced by other factors are likely the main causes of observed patterns of streamflow
and sediment reduction.
Wang et al. [22] investigate the impact that climate change has had on the duration of flood seasons
in the Fenhe River, China, from 1957 to 2014, based on daily precipitation data from 14 meteorological
stations in the basin and an analysis of the variations in the onset and retreat dates of yearly flood
seasons. The results show that the observed duration of the flood season has been extended since
1975. In particular, the onset of floods has advanced 15 days, although the retreat date is relatively
stable. Based on these results, the authors recommend corresponding measures to adapt to the flood
season variations.
Kwak et al. [23] conduct a drought analysis using a long-term streamflow record reconstructed
using tree ring indices within the Sacramento Basin, California, USA. By first identifying annual
streamflow patterns of the Sacramento River from 1560 to 1871 and then analyzing the hydrological
drought return period in this river basin, the authors argue that drought with a 20-year return period
can be considered a critical indicator of drought for water shortages in the Sacramento River basin.
Eight of the papers aim to simulate the impact of climate change on water resource variability
using various climatological and hydrological models. Pechlivanidis et al. [24] investigate the
impact of changing climates have on the hydro-climatology of the Indian subcontinent by comparing
current and projected future water fluxes from three RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)
scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These results are used to depict expected changes in the
annual flow cycles of three major rivers from different hydro-climatic regions, while acknowledging
that conclusions can be significantly influenced by statistical uncertainty embedded in the RCP
scenarios. Based on this study, the models project a gradual increase in temperature and uneven
changes (ranging from 20% to +50%) in long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration.
Potential surface runoff is also expected to change anywhere from 100% to +100%. The analysis of
annual cycles for the three selected regions show that the impact of climate change on discharge and
evapotranspiration varies between seasons, and the magnitude of change is primarily dependent on
the hydro-climatic gradient in different regions.
Li and Gao [25] simulate the impact of various precipitation change scenarios on runoff and
sediment yield in a hilly-gullied watershed typical of the Loess Plateau in China using the Soil and
Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This study indicates that runoff and sediment yield both increase
with increasing precipitation, while the variation in sediment yield is more sensitive to smaller rainfall
events. The authors determine that under these conditions, annual runoff and sediment yield fluctuate
greatly and the magnitude of the variations was especially amplified when precipitation increased
by 20%. Overall escalation in runoff and sediment caused by increased precipitation is greater than
corresponding decreases coincident with reduced precipitation, and runoff is the more sensitive
variable compared to sediment yield.
Ligaray et al. [26] assess the hydrological response of climate change in the Chao Phraya
River Basin, Thailand. Streamflow variations were simulated using a combination of SWAT and
meteorological data from 2003 to 2011 for various climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission
scenarios. Simulation results reveal that streamflow variations correspond to the changes in
rainfall totals and intensity, while increased air temperature likely leads to future water shortages.
The simulation also suggests that high CO2 concentration drives plant responses that may lead
to a dramatic increase in streamflow. Specifically, increased streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%,
Water 2016, 8, 348 4 of 7

and 38.4% were simulated for the three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) in the
reference period of 20032011.
Mahmood et al. [27] investigate the potential impacts of climate change on the water resources
of the Kunhar River basin, Pakistan under A2 and B2 climate scenarios. Using the HEC-HMS
(Hydrologic Engineering Centers Hydraulic Modeling System) hydrological model, the authors
simulate streamflow for the periods: 20112040, 20412070, and 20712099, and compare them with
the baseline period (19611990) to explore changes in different streamflow variables. The results
indicate an overall increase in mean annual flow projected under both A2 and B2 scenarios, but with
a high degree of variability. Stream discharge increases mainly in summer and autumn, but decreases
throughout the spring and winter months. High and median flows are predicted to increase, with peak
discharges shifting from June to July, while low flow conditions are projected to decrease. The Kunhar
basin will face a higher degree of variabilityboth more floods and droughtsby the end of the 21st
century, due to the projected increase in high flow, the decrease in low flow, and greater variations
in peak discharges. This study highlights key impacts of climate change on water resources to help
develop suitable policies for water resource use and management in this river basin.
Hesse and Krysanova [28] simulate the impacts of climatic shifts and changing management
practices on water quality and in-stream processes in the Elbe River Basin using a semi-distributed
watershed model (SWIM) with implemented in-stream nutrient (N+P) turnover and algal growth
processes. The set of modeled climate scenarios show a projected increase in temperature (+3 C)
and precipitation (+57 mm) on average until the end of the century, leading to varied changes in
discharge (+20%), nutrient loads (NO3 -N: 5%; NH4 -N: 24%; PO4 -P: +5%), phytoplankton biomass (4%),
and dissolved oxygen concentration (5%) in the Elbe River Basin. The authors utilize the model to
examine the ways in which changes in climatic variables fundamentally impact the ways by which
land use and nutrients are managed to reduce nutrient emissions to the river.
Liu and Chan [29] assess impacts on water quality in the Danshuei River estuarine system
in northern Taiwan using a coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model
driven by changes in climatic variables. The model is calibrated and validated using observed
data and then applied to simulate water quality projections under various climate change scenarios.
Results indicate that dissolved oxygen concentrations are likely to significantly decrease in the
Danshuei, whereas nutrients will increase in response to expected climate changes. In particular,
dissolved oxygen concentrations will be reduced to less than 2 mg/L in the main stream, failing to
meet accepted water quality standards. This study suggests an appropriate strategy for effective water
quality management in estuarine systems such as the Danshuei is needed to adapt to the water quality
changes likely to accompany anthropogenic climate change.
Wei et al. [30] estimate flood risk that is likely to occur under the heightened hydrologic
variability driven by climate change in the Tsengwen River Basin, Taiwan, using a SOBEK model
(Deltares, The Netherlands). Simulated results indicate that the discharge of the Tsengwen is at
increasing risk of exceeding the designed maximum streamflow at three stations from different areas
of the watershed for three projected periods of 19792003, 20152039, and 20752099. Model results
indicate that the exceedance frequency for the designed flood is 2 in 88 events in the base period
(19792003), 6 in 82 events in the near future (20152039), and 10 in 81 events at the end of the
century (20752099).
Okamoto et al. [31] turn our attention from streamflow to water fluxes driving hillslope processes.
They investigate the optimal soil hydraulic parameters for simulating unsaturated flow based on a case
study from the island of Miyakojima, Japan. The authors optimize the parameters for root water uptake
and then examine the influence of soil hydraulic parameters on simulations of evapotranspiration.
From there, they compare volumetric water content between the simulation results and those using
pedotransfer estimates obtained from ROSETTA software. The resulting comparison highlights the
importance of using soil hydraulic parameters based on measured data to simulate evapotranspiration
and unsaturated water flow processes.
Water 2016, 8, 348 5 of 7

The last two papers in this special issue examine the ways by which different perceptions of climate
change and adaptation strategies impact management and water resource variability. Ndamani and
Watanabe [32] analyze farmer perceptions of adaptation practices using semi-structured questionnaires
and focus group discussions of 100 farmer-households from four communities in the Lawra district
of Ghana. The results show that adaptation is largely driven by response to dry spells and droughts
(93.2%) rather than floods. Farmers in the region ranked improved crop varieties and irrigation
as the most important adaptation measures, but largely lacked the capacity to implement these
adaptation practices. The study also revealed that unpredictable weather, high cost of farm inputs,
limited access to reliable weather information, and lack of water resources were the most critical
barriers to successful adaptation. This study highlights the critical linkage between climate, hydrology,
perception, and environmental management.
Shandas et al. [33] present a study of differing perspectives from the field on stressors and
strategies for managing urban water scarcity in two urbanizing regions of the western US: Portland,
Oregon and Phoenix, Arizona. The results show that long-term drought, population growth,
and outdoor water use are the most important stressors to urban water systems, and indicate more
agreement across cities than across professions in terms of effective strategies, suggesting that land-use
planners and water managers remain divided in their conception of the solutions to urban water
management. The authors also recommend potential pathways for coordinating the fields of land and
water management to streamline strategies for urban sustainability.

3. Conclusions
This collection of papers focuses on a range of research topics influenced by the overriding
hydrologic mechanisms associated with anthropogenic climate change and associated water resource
variability. This includes a wide range of problems ranging from changes in surficial water levels,
streamflow, sediment yields, and water quality in lakes, rivers, watersheds, and estuarine systems.
The authors have brought a number of methodological tools to bear on these problems by examining
various datasets and techniques, such as remote sensing, meteorological station-based observational
data, tree-ring records, climate forecasts, and hydrological models used to simulate climatic impacts
on streamflow, sediment yield, and water quality. Because consequent environmental problems and
strategies for coping and mitigating deleterious effects must be defined in a social context, it is also
important to include research examining perception, vulnerability, and adaptation. This collection of
16 papers emphasizes the importance of understanding the various interrelated facets that changing
climates have on water resource variability and how focused investigations will help ground suitable
strategies for mitigating and adapting to anthropogenic climate change.

Acknowledgments: The authors of this paper, who served as the guest-editors of this special issue, wish to thank
the journal editors, all authors submitting papers to this special issue, and the many referees who contributed to
paper revision and improvement of the 16 published papers.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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