The answer’s of the Case Problem 10.

2 are :
1. Metode Moving Average
n

D i
MA n  i 1

n
3014
Moving Average 3 bulan = MA 3 =  1004,67  1005 order for year 15
3
4548
Moving Average 5 bulan = MA 5 =  910 order for year 15
5
2. Linear Trend Line
y = a + bx
Year (x) Computers sold (y) xy x2
1 518 518 1
2 651 1302 4
3 708 2124 9
4 921 3684 16
5 775 3875 25
6 810 4860 36
7 856 5992 49
8 792 6336 64
9 877 7893 81
10 693 6930 100
11 841 9251 121
12 1009 12108 144
13 902 11726 169
14 1103 15442 196
Total 11456 92041 1015

x = 7.5
y = 818.3
 xy  n xy
b=
 x  nx
2 2

92041  85920
=  26.9
1015  787.5
a= y - b x = 616.5
y = 616.5 + 26.9 x
y15 = 1020
Forecasting for year 15 is 1020 order.
3. Constant Method
 t dt dt' e=dt-dt' e2 SEE
1 518 -300,29 90171,51
2 651 -167,29 27984,51
3 708 -110,29 12162,94
4 921 102,71 10550,22
5 775 -43,29 1873,65
6 810 -8,29 68,65
7 856 37,71 1422,37
818,29 149
8 792 -26,29 690,94
9 877 58,71 3447,37
10 693 -125,29 15696,51
11 841 22,71 515,94
12 1009 190,71 36371,94
13 902 83,71 7008,08
14 1103 284,71 81062,22
Total 289026,86

a= d t
'
t 1
 d t  818,29
N
n

SEE =  (d
t 1
t  d t' ) 2

n f

11456
=  149
14  1

The Constant method gives result 149 order for 15th year.
4. Linier Method
t dt t.dt t2 dt'=616.5+26.905t e= dt-dt' e2
1 518 518 1 643,400 -125,400 15725,160
2 651 1302 4 670,305 -19,305 372,683
3 708 2124 9 697,210 10,790 116,424
4 921 3684 16 724,115 196,885 38763,703
5 775 3875 25 751,020 23,980 575,040
6 810 4860 36 777,925 32,075 1028,806
7 856 5992 49 804,830 51,170 2618,369
8 792 6336 64 831,735 -39,735 1578,870
9 877 7893 81 858,640 18,360 337,090
10 693 6930 100 885,545 -192,545 37073,577
11 841 9251 121 912,450 -71,450 5105,103
12 1009 12108 144 939,355 69,645 4850,426
13 902 11726 169 966,260 -64,260 4129,348
14 1103 15442 196 993,165 109,835 12063,727
Total 11456 92041 1015 11455,955 0,045 124338,325
 n n n
N  t.dt   dt  t
t 1 t 1 t 1
b= 2
 n
 n
Nt 2  t 
t 1  t 1 
14 * 92041  11456 * 105
b=  26.905
14 *1015  (105) 2
n n

a=  dt b t
t 1
 t 1
 dt  bt
N N
a= dt  bt

a = 818.286-(26.905*7.5) = 616.495
dt’ = 616.495 + 26.905 t
n

SEE =   dt  dt '
t 1
2

n f

124338,325
SEE =  97,789
13

Linier Method

1200,000

1000,000
Forecasting

800,000

600,000 dt'
400,000

200,000

0,000
8 8 5 6 7 1 2
51 70 77 85 87 84 90
Actual

From this chart, we know that the demand for computer have experiencing of
increase every year. So, the producer of the computer can forecast the demand of
computer for future pursuant to data which have pre-existed.
5. Square Method
t dt t.dt t2 t 2.dt t2 dt' e=dt-dt' e2
-7 518 -3626 49 25382 2401 672,3953731 -154,395 23837,93125
-6 651 -3906 36 23436 1296 692,362516 -41,3625 1710,857729
-5 708 -3540 25 17700 625 712,8896588 -4,88966 23,90876366
-4 921 -3684 16 14736 256 733,9768017 187,0232 34977,6767
-3 775 -2325 9 6975 81 755,6239446 19,37606 375,4315243
-2 810 -1620 4 3240 16 777,8310874 32,16891 1034,838937
-1 856 -856 1 856 1 800,5982303 55,40177 3069,356088
1 792 792 1 792 1 847,812516 -55,8125 3115,036941
2 877 1754 4 3508 16 872,2596588 4,740341 22,47083423
3 693 2079 9 6237 81 897,2668017 -204,267 41724,92628
4 841 3364 16 13456 256 922,8339446 -81,8339 6696,794483
5 1009 5045 25 25225 625 948,9610874 60,03891 3604,671024
6 902 5412 36 32472 1296 975,6482303 -73,6482 5424,061823
7 1103 7721 49 54047 2401 1002,895373 100,1046 10020,93632
Total 11456 6610 280 228062 9352 11613,35522 135638,8987

 t.dt
t 1
b= n

t
t 1
2

6610
b=  23.61
280
n n n

 dt  t 2  N  t 2 dt
t 1 t 1 t 1
c= n n

t
t 1
4
 n t 4
t 1

(11456 * 280)  (14 * 228062)

a=  dt  C  t 2
t 1 t 1

N
11456  (0.28 * 280)
a=  823.925
14
dt'= 823.925+23.61t+0.28t2
n

SEE =   dt  dt '
t 1
2

n f

135638.8987
SEE =  1241
11
 Konstan Linier Siklis
SEE 149 98 111

From tables of above, the selected method is linear method, so that the request of

computer in the year ke-15 =