Slides04 PDF
Slides04 PDF
Lecture 4
Tri Vi Dang
Columbia University
Spring 2018
I.3. Taxes and the costs of financial II.3. Business analysis and
distress financial analysis
date
1 S
x 11 x 1S Bond 1
X
x N1 x NS Bond N
This kind of abstraction will be very useful and actually needed if you want to
work at
and
Let q be S-vektor, p the N-vektor of asset prices, and X the (NS)-matrix of the
payoffs of the N assets in the S dates.
NA {q>>0 : Xq=p}.
x 11 .... x 1S q1 p1
x N1 x NS q S p
N
q1 x 11 q 2 x 12 .... q S x 1S p1
q1 x 21 q 2 x 22 .... q S x 2S p 2
q1 x N1 q 2 x N2 .... q S x NS p N
With this theorem at hand, it is easy to check whether there is arbitrage. You
only have to solve the equation system p=Xq.
The vector q=(q1, q2,...., qS) of the Theorem is the vector of prices of the
following assets.
These assets might not be (explicitly) traded but can be created out of the
tradable assets.
1 0 0 p1
X 0 1 0 and p 2
0 0 1 p
3
Solving
1 0 0 q1 p1 q1 p1
0 1 0 q
2 p2 q2 p2
0 0 1 q3 p
3
q
3
p
3
NA implies if X 0 then p 0 .
Asset A and B are identical if ( x A1 , x A2 ,....x AS ) ( xB1 , xB 2 ,....xBS ) for all xis
Law of one price: Two identical assets have the same price.
What portfolio generates y? Or what does your financial advisor recommend you
to buy?
X=y
1 x 11 2 x 21 .. N x N1 y1
1 x 1N 2 x 2N .. N x NS y S
The solution ( 1 ...... N ) of the above equation system is a portfolio that delivers
(y1,…,yS).
Asset 1: (1,2)
Asset 2: (3,4)
1 2
1, 2 (1,1)
3 4
1 3 2 1
21 4 2 1
(1 , 2 ) (0.5,0.5)
This highlights the key principle of how firms are doing cash management.
In general firms save their cash by investing in a portfolio of bonds such that it
pays off the desired amount at desired dates.
Instead of putting its cash in a checking account it has a cash management team
to manage its cash by investing in bonds.
The iPhone-maker has $148 billion of its record $257 billion cash pile invested in
corporate debt alone, according to a company filing from Wednesday. That’s enough to
buy all the assets in the world’s largest fixed-income mutual fund, the Vanguard Total
Bond Market Index Fund, which has about $145 billion of assets including company,
government and mortgage bonds.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-04/apple-buys-more-company-debt-than-the-world-s-biggest-bond-funds
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-09-05/apple-s-rain-of-cash-washes-away-doubts-about-its-debt
Apple's Bonds Are Acting More and More Like Government Debt
Bloomberg, 09/06/2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-06/apple-gets-favored-nation-status-in-bond-market-short-on-safety
Suppose you find an arbitrage (i.e. qi=0 or qi<0). How can you exploit it?
The simplest strategy is to generate a bond with (0,0,..,1,,..,0,0) that has a price
qi=0 or qi<0.
I.e.
x11 x1S
(1 ...... N )
= (0,0,..,1,..,0,0)
x N 1 x NS
By doing this, you obtain qi at t=0, and has no negative payoff and one positive
payoff at t=i.
Remark
See Problem Set 2 for examples.
DIV1 P1
P0
1 r
DIV2 P2
P1
1 r
DIV2 P2
1 r
DIV1
P0
1 r 1 r
DIV1 DIV2 P2
0 1 r (1 r ) 2
P
T
DIVt PT
Further Substitution yields: P0
t 1 (1 r ) t
(1 r )T
For T infinite
DIVt
P0
t 1 (1 r ) t
Dividend yield
DIV1
DIV ( yield )
P0
The question is how to price risky assets, such as stocks and options.
From the perspective of the investors at date t=0, outcomes (or payoffs of assets)
at t=1 are uncertain.
At t=1, there is a set of potential states of the world that can be realized.
States
1 S
x 11 x 1S Asset1
X
x N1 x NS Asset N
How does the payoff (share price) of Apple at t=1 vary with the Dow?
S={Inflation rate}
How does the payoff (share price) of Apple at t=1 vary with the inflation rate?
S=3, N=2
t=1
Solution:
q1
140 146 148 130
1130 1140 1120 q 2
q 1100
3
Two dates (t=0, und t=1) and there are N stocks with prices at t=0 of
States at t=1
1 S
x 11 x 1S Stock 1
X
x N1 x NS Stock N
There are S dates (and no uncertainty) and N bonds with prices at t=0 of
date
1 S
x 11 x 1S Bond 1
X
x N1 x NS Bond N
x 11 x 1S
X
x N1 x NS
- After forming expectations, a trader can try to find arbitrage given his
expectations.
The vector q=(q1, q2,...., qS) of the Theorem is called the vector of
These assets are called state contingent claims since they only have a positive
payoff in one state and zero payoff in all other states.
Rational traders will compete away any arbitrage profits until prices are
arbitrage free.
If it takes time to realize arbitrage profit and funds manager faces short term
compensation schemes, then they are reluctant to do so.
Herding of traders may move prices even further away from fundamental value.
Some markets (e.g. investment grade bonds) are more efficient than other market
(e.g. stock markets).
We will come back to this discussion again and again in subsequent sections.
You can generate basically all desired future payoffs with options.
Financial Engineering
Hedging of risks
A Call-Option (or Call) is an asset, that gives the holder the right but no
obligation to buy an object (the underlying) at a pre-specified date T (exercise
date) for a pre-specified price E (exercise price, strike price).
A Put-Option (Put) is an asset, that gives the holder the right but no obligation
to sell an object (the underlying) at a pre-specified date T (exercise date) for a
pre-specified price E (exercise price, strike price).
The payoff at T:
Call: XC=max[StE, 0]
E ST
Remark
This picture captures the key incentive issues underlying the debate about the
compensation of bankers (see Section I.3).
Put:XP=max[EtS, 0]
The holder can sell the object for a higher price to the market,
Payoff of Put at T
E ST
Remark
The state space is the stock price at date T.
Apple: S0=$100
Remark
The Put-Call parity says something about the relationship between option prices.
In particular, if you know the price of a call, you can price puts, or vice versa.
No arbitrage implies
E
C(S 0 , E) S 0 P(S 0 , E)
1 r
where E denotes the face value of a riskless bond at t=1, S0 denotes the price of
the stock at t=0, r is the riskless rate, C() denotes the price of a call with
exercise price E and P() the price of a put with exercise price E on that stock.
It says that the price of a call and the price of a put with the same exercise price
have to obey a specific relationship. Otherwise there is arbitrage.
In other words,
A riskless bond with payoff of E at t=1 and a call with exercise price E on a
stock
is equivalent to
a put with exercise price E on the stock and the holding of that stock.
Equivalent means that both portfolios have the same price at t=0.
NA also implies that two identical assets must have the same price.
Two assets are identical if they have identical payoff in all states.
According to NA, one just has to show that both sides of the equations yield the
same payoff in all states.
E
C(S 0 , E) S 0 P(S 0 , E)
1 r
LHS: If S1 < E, E
If S1 E, S1
RHS: If S1 < E, E
If S1 E, S1
In all states (for any stock price at T), the two portfolios have the same payoffs.
S 0 P( S 0 , E ) C ( S 0 , E )
A synthetic stock
C (S 0 , E ) P( S 0 , E ) Bond
Remark