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    Bab Iv Pengumpulan & Pengolahan Data

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    Shendy Dio Erlangga
    This document discusses four methods for data processing and forecasting: double moving average, DESSP from Brown, DESSP from Holt, and linear regression. For each method, it provides the calculations and formulas used to make forecasts, calculate errors between actual and forecasted data, and evaluate forecast accuracy based on various error statistics. Tables of sample data and results of applying each method are also included.

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    Bab Iv Pengumpulan & Pengolahan Data

    Uploaded by

    Shendy Dio Erlangga
    19 views9 pages
    This document discusses four methods for data processing and forecasting: double moving average, DESSP from Brown, DESSP from Holt, and linear regression. For each method, it provides the calculations and formulas used to make forecasts, calculate errors between actual and forecasted data, and evaluate forecast accuracy based on various error statistics. Tables of sample data and results of applying each method are also included.

    Original Description:

    modul 1 bab 4

    Original Title

    BAB 4

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    This document discusses four methods for data processing and forecasting: double moving average, DESSP from Brown, DESSP from Holt, and linear regression. For each method, it provides the calculations and formulas used to make forecasts, calculate errors between actual and forecasted data, and evaluate forecast accuracy based on various error statistics. Tables of sample data and results of applying each method are also included.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    19 views9 pages

    Bab Iv Pengumpulan & Pengolahan Data

    Uploaded by

    Shendy Dio Erlangga
    This document discusses four methods for data processing and forecasting: double moving average, DESSP from Brown, DESSP from Holt, and linear regression. For each method, it provides the calculations and formulas used to make forecasts, calculate errors between actual and forecasted data, and evaluate forecast accuracy based on various error statistics. Tables of sample data and results of applying each method are also included.

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    You are on page 1of 9

    BAB IV

    PENGUMPULAN & PENGOLAHAN DATA

    4.1 PENGUMPULAN DATA

    Tabel 4.1 Pengumpulan Data Forecasting


    Demand
    Periode
    Data NPM
    1 8292 8333
    2 12456 12497
    3 9461 9502
    4 8438 8479
    5 9729 9770
    6 8074 8115
    7 10044 10085
    8 8973 9014
    9 9901 9942
    10 7586 7627
    11 9997 10038
    12 8974 9015
    13 9949 9990
    14 7982 8023
    15 9494 9535
    16 7982 8023
    17 9808 9849
    18 7618 7659
    19 9637 9678
    20 9845 9886
    21 10077 10118
    22 11212 11253
    23 11287 11328
    24 11367 11408
    (Sumber: Pengumpulan Data)
    4.2 PENGOLAHAN DATA

    4.2.1 Metode Double Moving Average


    Tabel 4.2 Metode Double Moving Average

    (Sumber: Pengumpulan Data)

    Perhitungan:
    a. Rata-rata data
    𝑋𝑡 +𝑋𝑡−1 +⋯+𝑋𝑡−𝑁+1
    S’t = 𝑁

    =
    =
    𝑆′𝑡 +𝑆′𝑡−1 +⋯+𝑆′𝑡−𝑁+1
    S’t = 𝑁

    =
    =

    b. Perhitungana komponen ɑt dalam data:


    ɑt = S’t + (S’t – S”t)
    =
    =

    c. Hasil perhitungan Forecasting


    Ft+m = ɑt + bt . m
    =
    =

    d. Perhitungan Error
    et = dt – ft
    =
    =
    𝑒𝑡
    PE = 𝑑𝑡 x 100

    =
    =

    e. Error Statistik
    ∑ 𝑒𝑡
    ME = 𝑛

    =
    =
    SSE = ∑ 𝑒𝑡 2
    =
    =
    𝑆𝑆𝐸
    MSE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    ∑ ǀ𝑒𝑡ǀ
    MAE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    𝑆𝑆𝐸
    SDE = √𝑛−1

    =
    =

    f. Error Relatif
    ∑ 𝑃𝐸
    MPE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    ∑ ǀ𝑃𝐸ǀ
    MAPE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    4.2.2 Metode DESSP dari Brown
    Tabel 4.3 Metode DESSP dari Brown

    (Sumber: Pengumpulan Data)


    Perhitungan:
    a. Perhitungan data
    ɑ = 0,9
    St = (ɑ . Xt + ((1-ɑ) . S”t-1)))
    =
    =
    S”t = ɑ . S’t + (1-ɑ) . S”t-1
    =
    =
    ɑt = S’t + (S’t – S”t)
    =
    =
    ɑ
    bt = 1−ɑ . (S’t – S”t)

    =
    =
    Ft = ɑt + bt . m
    =
    =

    b. Perhitungan Error
    et = dt – ft
    =
    =
    𝑒𝑡
    PE = 𝑑𝑡 x 100

    =
    =

    c. Error Statistik
    ∑ 𝑒𝑡
    ME = 𝑛

    =
    =
    SSE = ∑ 𝑒𝑡 2
    =
    =
    𝑆𝑆𝐸
    MSE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    ∑ ǀ𝑒𝑡ǀ
    MAE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    𝑆𝑆𝐸
    SDE = √𝑛−1

    =
    =

    d. Error Relatif
    ∑ 𝑃𝐸
    MPE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    ∑ ǀ𝑃𝐸ǀ
    MAPE = 𝑛

    =
    =

    4.2.3 Metode DESSP dari Holt


    Tabel 4.4 Metode DESSP dari Holt

    (Sumber: Pengumpulan Data)


    Perhitungan:
    a. Perhitungan data
    ɑ = 0,9 ɣ = 0,9
    St = ɑ . Xt + (1 - ɑ)(Stt-1 + bt-1)
    =
    =
    bt = ɣ (St + St-1) + (1-ɣ) bt-1
    =
    =
    F(t+m) = St + (St . bt)m
    =
    =

    b. Perhitungan Error
    et = dt – ft
    =
    =
    𝑒𝑡
    PE = 𝑑𝑡 x 100

    =
    =

    c. Error Statistik
    ∑ 𝑒𝑡
    ME = 𝑛

    =
    =
    SSE = ∑ 𝑒𝑡 2
    =
    =
    𝑆𝑆𝐸
    MSE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    ∑ ǀ𝑒𝑡ǀ
    MAE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    𝑆𝑆𝐸
    SDE = √𝑛−1

    =
    =

    d. Error Relatif
    ∑ 𝑃𝐸
    MPE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    ∑ ǀ𝑃𝐸ǀ
    MAPE = 𝑛

    =
    =

    4.2.4 Metode Regresi Linier


    Tabel 4.4 Metode Regresi Linier

    (Sumber: Pengumpulan Data)


    Perhitungan:
    a. Perhitungan data
    (𝑛 ∑ 𝑑𝑡)−(∑ 𝑑)(∑ 𝑡)
    b = 𝑛 ∑ 𝑡 2 −(∑ 𝑡)²

    =
    =
    (∑ 𝑑−(𝑏∗∑ 𝑡)
    ɑ = 𝑛

    =
    =

    b. Perhitungan Error
    et = dt – ft
    =
    =
    𝑒𝑡
    PE = 𝑑𝑡 x 100

    =
    =

    c. Error Statistik
    ∑ 𝑒𝑡
    ME = 𝑛

    =
    =
    SSE = ∑ 𝑒𝑡 2
    =
    =
    𝑆𝑆𝐸
    MSE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    ∑ ǀ𝑒𝑡ǀ
    MAE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    𝑆𝑆𝐸
    SDE = √𝑛−1

    =
    =

    d. Error Relatif
    ∑ 𝑃𝐸
    MPE = 𝑛

    =
    =
    ∑ ǀ𝑃𝐸ǀ
    MAPE = 𝑛
    =
    =

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