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    Chapter 12

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    Fanji Wijaya
    1. The document discusses air quality measurements in Denver and poses discussion questions about analyzing trends in the data, factors that could affect short, medium, and long-term visibility forecasts, and how to improve visibility over the next decade. 2. It also describes a local newspaper that implemented a sales data collection system but has seen declining revenues. The owner uses the sales data to forecast print runs but the newspaper is still struggling, despite accurate forecasts.

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    Chapter 12

    Uploaded by

    Fanji Wijaya
    265 views2 pages
    1. The document discusses air quality measurements in Denver and poses discussion questions about analyzing trends in the data, factors that could affect short, medium, and long-term visibility forecasts, and how to improve visibility over the next decade. 2. It also describes a local newspaper that implemented a sales data collection system but has seen declining revenues. The owner uses the sales data to forecast print runs but the newspaper is still struggling, despite accurate forecasts.

    Original Description:

    Chapter 12 Forecasting

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    1. The document discusses air quality measurements in Denver and poses discussion questions about analyzing trends in the data, factors that could affect short, medium, and long-term visibility forecasts, and how to improve visibility over the next decade. 2. It also describes a local newspaper that implemented a sales data collection system but has seen declining revenues. The owner uses the sales data to forecast print runs but the newspaper is still struggling, despite accurate forecasts.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    265 views2 pages

    Chapter 12

    Uploaded by

    Fanji Wijaya
    1. The document discusses air quality measurements in Denver and poses discussion questions about analyzing trends in the data, factors that could affect short, medium, and long-term visibility forecasts, and how to improve visibility over the next decade. 2. It also describes a local newspaper that implemented a sales data collection system but has seen declining revenues. The owner uses the sales data to forecast print runs but the newspaper is still struggling, despite accurate forecasts.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    Discussion Quections

    1. Figure 12.9 shows summer air visibility measurements for denver. The acceptable visibility
    standard is 100, with readings above 100 indicating clean air and good visibiIity and
    readings below 100 indicating tcmperature inversions, forest tires, volcanic cruptions, or
    collisions with coments

    a. Is these a trend in the data? Which time series techniques might be appropriate for
    estimating the average of these data?

    b. A medical center for asthma and respiratory diseases located in denver has great
    demand for Its services when air quality is poor. If you were in charge of developing a
    short-term (say, 3-day) forecast of visibility, which causal factor(s) would you analyze? In
    other words, which external factors hold the potential to significantly affrect visibility in
    the short term?

    c. Tourism, an important factor in Denver’s economy, is affected by the city’s image. Air
    quality, as measured by visibility, affects the city’s image. If you were responsible for
    development of tourism, which causal factor(s) would you analyze to forecast visibility
    for the medium term (say, the next two summers)?

    d. The federal government threatens to withhold several hundred million dollars in


    department of transportation funds unless Denver meets visibility standards within
    eight years. How would you proceed to generate a 1ong-terrn judgment forecast of
    technologies that will be available to improve visibility in the next ten years?

    2. Kay and Michael passé publish what’s Happering? A biweekly newspaper to publicize
    local events. What’s Happening? Has few subscribers; it typically is sold at checkout
    stands. Much of the revenue comes from advertisers of garage sales and supermarket
    specials. Inan effort to reduce costs associated with printing too many papers or
    delivering them to the wrong Location, Michael implemented a computerized system
    to collect sales data. Sales-counter scanners accurately record sales data for each
    location. Since the system was implemented, total sales volume has steadily declined.
    Selling advertising space and maintaining shelf space at supermarkets are getting
    more difficult.

    Reduced revenue makes controIling costs all the more important. For each issue.
    Michael carefully makes a forecast based on sales data collected at each location.
    Then he orders papers to be printed and distributed in quantities matching the
    forecast. Michael’s forecast reflects a downward trend, which is present in the sales
    data. Now onIy a few papers are left over at only a few locations. Althought the
    sales forecast accurately predict the actual sales at most locations, What Happening?
    is spiraling toward oblivion, Kay suspects that Michael is doing something wrong in
    preparing the forecast but can find no mathematical errors. Tell her what’s happening.

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