TR Edison Research August 2010
TR Edison Research August 2010
TR Edison Research August 2010
4 August 2010
Price 2.78p
Tower Resources Market Cap £28m
Year Revenue PBT* EPS* DPS P/E Yield
End ($m) ($m) (c) (c) (x) (%) Share price graph
12/08 0.0 (0.93) (0.2) 0.0 N/A N/A
Tower has a 15% working interest in Licence 0010 located between about 50km and
Balance Sheet as at 31 December 2009
200km west of the Namibian coast. The operator is Arcadia Petroleum, a privately Debt/Equity (%) N/A
held oil trading company with oil exploration interests, including in the Falklands in NAV per share (c) 2.7
conjunction with Desire Petroleum. Importantly, Tower is free carried during the Net cash ($m)* 2.0
*Estimated end July 2010.
seismic gathering phase and for the first exploration well.
sedimentary basins offshore Namibia contain broadly similar Mid Cretaceous source
Valuation
rocks to those in the prolific Brazilian offshore oilfields.
2009 2010e 2011e
Resource base: Supergiant potential P/E relative N/A N/A N/A
P/CF N/A N/A N/A
According to Oilfield International’s CPR, Licence 0010 has gross prospective
EV/Sales N/A N/A N/A
resources at the 50% probability level of 9.6bnboe in the event of light oil bearing ROE N/A N/A N/A
structures. This is similar in scale to the supergiant Tupi discovery offshore Brazil. Net
to Tower, prospective resources on the same basis are put at 1.38bnboe. Geography based on revenues (2009)
UK Europe US Other
Valuation: Namibia EMV of 45p/share 0% 0% 0% 0%
At this stage any valuations are necessarily tentative. Oil International’s EMV for
Analysts
Tower’s 15% working interest in Namibia Licence 0010 is $696m or 45p/share. This
Peter J Dupont 020 3077 5741
is based on net risk adjusted resources of 170mmboe and implies $4.1/boe. We
Neil Shah 020 3077 5715
believe this is a plausible valuation basis in the event that drilling points to gross oilandgas@edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk
recoverable resources of over 1bnboe with a heavy weighting towards crude oil.
During both the rifting and post rifting phase the south-west African margin was subject to heavy
faulting. This has provided an effective mechanism for the efficient migration and trapping of
hydrocarbons. In common with elsewhere in the South Atlantic basin, it is the combination of
tectonic activity and sedimentation that makes the south-west African margin prospective for
hydrocarbons.
Norsk Hydro drilled two wells in 1994 and 1995 on Block 1911 in what is now the Arcadia/Tower
Licence 0010 located in the Walvis and Namibe basins. Both wells were abandoned as dry holes,
but the drilling revealed three potential source rock horizons along with a number of good quality
reservoirs and residual oil saturations.
Chariot is arguably further down the exploration trail than most of the players with acreage in the
south-west African margin. It has undertaken an extensive 2-D and 3-D seismic gathering exercise
which has resulted in one prospect and 25 leads so far. Gross un-risked resources across
Chariot’s acreage are put at 8.5bn barrels which is clearly in supergiant field territory. Significantly,
in Block 2714A in the Orange basin Chariot has farmed out a 50% working interest to Petrobras.
3 | Edison Investment Research | Update | Tower Resources | 4 August 2010
So far, Petrobras is the only major to have exposure to the south-west Africa offshore margin.
Chariot is actively seeking farm-in partners to speed drilling activity. We believe the south-west
Africa margin could attract growing exploration interest in the near term, particularly if there are
further discoveries in Falklands’ waters.
2-D seismic surveys were shot on Licence 0010 in 2006 and 2007 and further seismic data was
acquired. The results were very encouraging with four large structures identified running south-east
to north-west over a distance of about 200km towards the western extremity of the Licence area.
Running from north to south the structures are called Beta, Alpha, Gamma and Delta. Beta lies
about 200km south-west of the Kuene gas find. The structural highs appear to have been uplifted
to their present positions due to tectonic activity in relatively recent Middle Miocene or even
Pliocene times. The Delta structure appears the most promising for hydrocarbons based on the
seismic and AVO analysis. Indeed, it is the location of the only prospect identified so far which
means that it is theoretically suitable for drilling without further information. To improve
understanding and minimise drilling risk, a 3-D seismic survey is presently being shot over the Delta
prospect. This commenced in early July and should be completed towards the end of August.
Analysis and interpretation is expected to take until early 2011.
The Delta prospect, 54km south-west of the Norsk Hydro 1911-15 well, refers to a Maastricht
(Upper Cretaceous) sandstone horizon target. The evidence from 2-D seismic points to a well
defined closure, while confidence is high in terms of the presence of a seal in the form of shale.
Confidence however is somewhat lower in terms of hydrocarbons migration and particular the
presence and quality of the reservoir. Overall, Oil International has assigned a 26% geological
chance of success to the Delta prospect, which is relatively high for this early stage of exploration.
In addition to the Delta prospect, Licence 0010 contains three leads as follows: Delta Palaeocene,
Alpha Palaeocene and Gamma Palaeocene. These are all high risk targets at this stage and require
further information to raise confidence to the prospect level. Geological chances of success for the
three leads have been assessed by Oil International at 8%, 20% and 12% respectively.
4 | Edison Investment Research | Update | Tower Resources | 4 August 2010
Drilling plan
The current plan is to drill an exploration well on the Delta prospect in the weather window between
October 2011 and April 2012, with the 3-D seismic assisting in identifying the precise location.
Given the time constraints related to Arcadia needing to farm-out before contracting a rig and the
lead time for well planning, it now seems unlikely that drilling will occur before early 2012. Assuming
a commercial discovery is made an appraisal drilling programme might then be undertaken,
followed possibly by another exploration well before the expiry of the current exploration licence
period in August 2013. Production is theoretically possible by end 2015 using a FPSO facility. A
large scale appraisal and development programme would however probably take until 2020.
Given the location and nature of the planned exploration well drilling will be costly. The average
depth of water over Delta is relatively deep at 1,115m, while the supply line from Walvis Bay is long.
The well will also be relatively deep if it is in line with the approximately 4,500m of the earlier Norsk
Hydro wells. All told, we believe the cost of the planned exploration well will be in the region of
$50m. Heavy exploration spending suggests that Arcadia/Tower will in all likelihood have to seek
farm-in partners in the coming months. It should also be noted that due to heavy exploration and
development expenditure, hydrocarbon reserves will need to be substantial to justify development.
Much, of course, will depend on price developments over the next two or three years and whether
discoveries are orientated to gas or oil. Assuming oil, we believe that to achieve critical-mass
recoverable reserves of at least 200 or 300mm barrels will be required at today’s economics to
justify development.
Resources
Oil International has derived its estimates of resources based on three different assumptions for the
fluid type. These are that the reservoirs are predominantly light oil, gas condensate and dry gas
bearing. For the Delta structure, Oil International assigned probabilities to these outcomes of 50%,
40% and 10% respectively, while the other structures were rated 45%, 44% and 11% respectively.
The odds of discovering gas are believed to be greater in the more northerly structures where the
source rocks are deeper.
Oil International’s estimates of prospective resources based on the alternative fluid type
assumptions are as follows:
In the event of light oil, gross recoverable resources of 7.55bn barrels and 12.4tcf of
natural gas or 9.6bnboe. Tower’s share would be 1.08bn barrels and 1.8tcf or
1.38bnboe.
In the event of gas condensate, gross recoverable resources of 765mm barrels and
28.5tcf of natural gas or 5.52bnboe. Net to Tower this would be equivalent to 109mm
barrels and 4.1tcf or 792mmboe.
In the event of dry gas, gross recoverable resources of 67mm barrels and 27.8tcf of
natural gas or 4.70bnboe. Net to Tower this would be equivalent to 10mm barrels and
3.9tcf or 660mmboe.
5 | Edison Investment Research | Update | Tower Resources | 4 August 2010
Clearly, the first outcome would suggest a supergiant oil and gas discovery similar to those, such
as Tupi, made in recent years in the Santos Basin, offshore Brazil. Given the scale of the oil
resources and the potential for light oil, project economics would probably also look highly
attractive despite the relatively remote location and fairly deep water. The gas intensive outcomes
also point to substantial resources but the economics of a gas development project would be
considerably less attractive than for one based predominantly on light oil.
Uganda
Drilling results revisited
Tower’s drilling programme in Uganda’s Block 5, the most northerly concession in the Albertine
Basin, has so far proved disappointing. The Iti-1 well drilled in May/June 2009 and the Avivi-1 well
drilled in February 2010 both proved dry or perhaps more accurately the results were ambiguous.
As is usually the case with drilling programmes, Tower’s knowledge of Block 5 was greatly
enhanced by the drilling programme and it remains confident in the prospectivity of the zone.
Significantly in the case of Iti-1, subsequent analysis of the drilling results has proved more
encouraging than the initial interpretation. Independent analyses confirmed the presence of clean
reservoir sands with good porosity. Permeability, however, was found to be low. Studies of the fluid
samples have revealed traces of oil, while small quantities of oil were extracted from the rock
samples. The conclusion perhaps is that Iti-1 was an oil find in a poor quality reservoir.
The Avivi-1 well, located 20km south of Iti-1, also encountered traces of oil in the fluid samples
similar to those encountered in Iti-1 and from surface samples. Again, reservoir quality appeared to
be of poor quality. Importantly, the Avivi-1 well encountered thick sequences of organic rich clays
which point to high quality source rocks in the deeper areas of the basin. Overall, Tower believes
that it has significantly de-risked the issues of oil generation and migration towards the southern
extremity of Block 5. According to Tower, the challenge now is to identify structures in the deeper
part of the basin where reservoir quality is considerably better than that encountered up to now.
This will involve obtaining substantially more seismic coverage in the areas of interest.
Tower has recently completed an 8,412km aero gravity gradiometry survey. The results should be
known by end August and will provide vital information for a planned 500km 2-D seismic shoot.
This in turn will be used in selecting the next drilling target. The seismic survey will cost a
substantial $12m and will require third party financing. Tower has indicated that it is sounding out
farm-in interest regarding the seismic survey and a new Block 5 exploration well. Probably the
6 | Edison Investment Research | Update | Tower Resources | 4 August 2010
earliest that a well could be drilled is the second quarter of 2011. Based on the experience with
Avivi-1, an exploration well is likely to cost about $7.5m with another $1m for testing.
Compared with the deepwater offshore Namibia play, the minimum resources required for
commercial development in Uganda Block 5 would be decidedly modest. In all probability 25mm
barrels would be sufficient at current prices and assuming light oil. Initially oil from an oilfield
towards the southern end of Block 5 could be trucked to the gathering and processing facility
planned for the large fields discovered in Bocks 1 and 2, 60 to 100km to the south. Subsequently a
pipeline link could probably be added cost effectively. By 2015, it should be noted, an export
pipeline is expected to be in operation linking the Lake Albert gathering and processing facility with
the Indian Ocean port and refinery of Mombasa.
Tullow has also recently announced the conclusion of its purchase of Heritage Oil’s assets in the
Albertine Basin. This paves the way for the commercial development of the large oilfields
discovered in recent years in Blocks 1, 2 and 3 in conjunction with Tullow’s new joint venture
partners, CNOOC and Total. The first commercial production is expected in Q4 2011 from the
Kasamene oil and Nzizi gas fields. Initially, the production and processing facilities will have a
capacity of 10,000b/d. Gas will be supplied to a new regional power station at Hoima. By 2015
Tullow expects oil production in the Albertine Basin to be running at over 200,000b/d.
Financials
Tower ended 2009 with a very comfortable cash position of $8.6m. Demands on cash, however, in
2010 have been heavy. Following the Avivi-1 well at the end of February the cash balance was
down to $3.5m and in the subsequent five months there has been an outflow of an estimated
$2.8m comprising $1.8m for the Namibia CPR and gravity survey plus $1m for corporate and
general overhead. With the cash balance now down to about $0.7m it is likely that a fund-raising
will be required in the coming months to finance the latter. In 2011 any capital spending on the
Ugandan and Namibian projects will be largely or wholly undertaken by farm-in partners.
It should be noted that the overhead burden has recently been significantly reduced due to the
directors agreeing to waive $84,000 in fees between May 2010 and April 2011in exchange for
6,339,622 warrants. These are exercisable at 1.325p between 28 May 2011 and 28 May 2013.
7 | Edison Investment Research | Update | Tower Resources | 4 August 2010
Valuation
Oil International has concluded that the EMV (expected monetary value) of Tower’s 15% working
interest in Namibia Licence 0010 is $696m or 45p/share. This, it should be noted, is based on net
risk adjusted resources of 170mmboe and a 2020 start-up for commercial production. The
valuation basis is an implied $4.1/boe. For perspective, Tower Resources’ current market
capitalisation is about $44m (£28m at $1.56/£) or 2.8p/share.
However, any valuation based on discounted cash flow calculations for offshore Namibia should be
considered highly tentative even when, as in this case, there is a risked assessment of resources.
Given the frontier nature of the Namibia project, the long lead time to commercial production and
the need to secure a farm-in partner or partners to drill the first well, the level of uncertainty
surrounding the project at this stage is particularly high.
As Oil International has intimated, 45p/share should not be considered as the market value of the
15% stake in Licence 0010. Rather, in our view, it should be considered as the potential value if,
after drilling, it appears that gross recoverable resources of significantly over 1bnboe are on the
cards. In these circumstances we believe a price/boe of $4 to $5 would be plausible subject to the
caveat that the resource base is heavily orientated towards light oil. A gas find, in our view, would
sell for well under this valuation basis, given considerably less favourable economics. On a positive
note, if resources really are as large as the un-risked estimates made by Oil International the
potential valuation is far higher than 45p/share.
Finally there is the question of the valuation of the Ugandan play. In the past, Tower has suggested
that Block 1 has the potential to yield discoveries with recoverable resources of up to 100mm
barrels. If correct and assuming a chance of success of 20%, a working interest of 30% and a
price/barrel of $5, it could be argued that Uganda is potentially worth $30m currently. This would
be equivalent to 2p/share.
The key issue now concerning Tower is what might drive the stock over the coming six or so
months. Over this time frame we believe the most influential items of news will potentially be as
follows:
Farm-in partners for the Namibian offshore project possibly combined with greater
visibility on a drilling target and date.
Results of the Namibian 3-D seismic survey which should be known early in 2011.
Results of the aero gravity programme in Uganda
Farm-in partners and work programme in Uganda.
As for other exploration plays, news concerning drilling will be particularly influential.
8 | Edison Investment Research | Update | Tower Resources | 4 August 2010
Exhibit 1: Financials
$ '000s 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year end 31 December IF R S IF R S IF R S IF R S
P R OF IT & L OS S
R e ve nue 0 0 0 0
Cost of S ales 0 0 0 0
Gross Profit 0 0 0 0
E B ITD A ( 9 49 ) ( 715) ( 1,46 5) ( 1,46 5)
Ope ra tin g P rof it ( be f ore GW a n d e xc e pt.) ( 9 8 4) ( 750) ( 1,500) ( 1,500)
Intangible Amortisation 0 0 0 0
Exceptionals (311) (336) 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0
Ope ra tin g P rof it ( 1,29 5) ( 1,08 6 ) ( 1,500) ( 1,500)
Net Interest 51 40 3 0
P rof it B e f ore Ta x ( n orm) (9 3 3 ) ( 710) ( 1,49 7) ( 1,500)
P rof it B e f ore Ta x ( F R S 3 ) ( 1,244) ( 1,046 ) ( 1,49 7) ( 1,500)
Tax 0 0 0 0
P rof it A f te r Ta x ( n orm) (9 3 3 ) ( 710) ( 1,49 7) ( 1,500)
P rof it A f te r Ta x ( F R S 3 ) ( 1,244) ( 1,046 ) ( 1,49 7) ( 1,500)
B ALANCE S HE ET
F ixe d A s s e ts 15,29 4 18 ,3 29 25,6 9 5 27,727
Intangible Assets 15,140 18 ,18 7 25,58 7 27,58 7
Tangible Assets 154 142 108 140
Investments 0 0 0 0
C u rre n t A s s e ts 1,146 9 ,6 05 1,024 1,024
S tocks 0 0 0 0
Debtors 419 1,024 1,024 1,024
Cash 727 8 ,58 1 0 0
C u rre n t L ia bilitie s ( 1,715) ( 579 ) ( 8 6 0) ( 4,3 25)
Creditors (1,715) (579) (579) (579)
S hort term borrowings 0 0 (28 1) (3,746)
L on g Te rm L i a bilitie s 0 0 0 0
Long term borrowings 0 0 0 0
Other long term liabilities 0 0 0 0
N e t A s s e ts 14,725 27,3 55 25,8 59 24,426
C A S H F L OW
Ope ra tin g C a s h F low ( 771) ( 2,59 0) ( 1,46 5) ( 1,46 5)
Net Interest 51 40 3 0
Tax 0 0 0 0
Capex (5,563) (2,937) (7,400) (2,000)
Acquisitions/disposals (94) 0 0 0
Financing 1,568 13,341 0 0
Dividends 0 0 0 0
Net Cash Flow (4,8 09) 7,8 54 (8 ,8 62) (3,465)
Ope n in g n e t de bt/( c a s h ) ( 5,53 6 ) ( 727) ( 8 ,58 1) 28 1
HP finance leases initiated 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0
C los i n g n e t de bt/( c a s h ) ( 727) ( 8 ,58 1) 28 1 3 ,746
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