Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis
Şaban Çelik
Deparment of International Trade and Finance, Yasar University,
Izmir, Turkey. Tel: +90-232-4115343;
Fax: +90-232-4115020. E-mail: saban.celik@yasar.edu.tr
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to give a comprehensive theoretical review devoted to
asset pricing models by emphasizing static and dynamic versions in the line with their empirical
investigations. A considerable amount of financial economics literature devoted to the concept of asset
pricing and their implications. The main task of asset pricing model can be seen as the way to evaluate
the present value of the pay offs or cash flows discounted for risk and time lags. The difficulty coming
from discounting process is that the relevant factors that affect the pay offs vary through the time
whereas the theoretical framework is still useful to incorporate the changing factors into an asset
pricing models. This paper fills the gap in literature by giving a comprehensive review of the models
and evaluating the historical stream of empirical investigations in the form of structural empirical
review.
Keywords: Financial economics; Asset pricing; Static CAPM; Dynamic CAPM; Structural empirical
review
JEL Classifications: G00; G12; G13
1. Introduction
In order to simplify the concept of asset pricing, it needs to give a snapshot of the literature
and a brief overview of perspectives in the field in addition with to describe what it is meant by an
asset. The assets, financial or nonfinancial, will be defined as generating risky future pay offs
distributed over time. Pricing of an asset can be seen as the present value of the pay offs or cash flows
discounted for risk and time lags. However, the difficulties coming from discounting process is to
determine the relevant factors that affect the pay offs. Navigating the market signals and inferring their
impacts on the pay offs are the main task of asset pricing and required to implement the strategic
implications. It is highly important in decision making process at the firm level and also at the macro
level. When we consider “asset” pricing we often have in mind stock prices. However, asset pricing in
general also applies to other financial assets, for instance, bonds and derivatives, to non-financial
assets such as gold, real estate. Models that are developed in the field of asset pricing shares the
positive versus normative tension present in the rest of economics. When we consider a model1 by
which we predict the future, we usually rely on the underlining assumptions behind it. If the
underlining assumptions are true after evaluation process of normative tests, their predictions should
be true which can be examined through positives tests. However, what we do is in fact not more than
putting everything in one simplified settings.
In most cases, the underlining assumptions of given model do not pass the normative tests.
Even if it is so, we can not hold the impacts of factors affecting the pay offs constant between the two
periods. On the other hand, there is another possibility that the way we describe the world should work
is not overly simplified but the world is wrong that some assets are mispriced and the models need
improvements. Cochrane (2005) states that this latter use of asset pricing theory accounts for much of
its popularity and practical application. Also, and perhaps most importantly, the prices of many assets
1
A model consists of a set of assumptions, mathematical development of the model through manipulations of
these assumptions and a set of predictions (Bodie et al., 2008:309).
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012, pp.141-178 142
or claims to uncertain cash flows are not observed, such as potential public or private investment
projects, new financial securities, buyout prospects, and complex derivatives. We can apply the theory
to establish what the prices of these claims should be as well; the answers are important guides to
public and private decisions. Asset pricing theory all stems from one simple concept: price equals
expected discounted payoff. The rest is elaboration, special cases, and a closet full of tricks that make
the central equation useful for one or another application.
The distinctiveness of the study is that this is the first attempt to review literature written on
asset pricing models and the empirical investigation conducted in the form of structural empirical
review. In doing so, the historical perspective of the concept and the place it will take in future are
clarified and the way further researches conducted will be explored.
2. Theoretical Framework
In the scope of the paper, we will explain the models that are classified in the framework of
neoclassical finance2 and evaluate the empirical investigations conducting a structural empirical
review. In neoclassical finance, the models can be grouped into absolute and relative asset pricing
models. We mean by absolute pricing that each asset is priced by reference to its exposure to
fundamental sources of macroeconomic risk. The consumption-based and general equilibrium models
are the purest examples of this approach. The absolute approach is most common in academic settings,
in which we use asset pricing theory positively to give an economic explanation for why prices are
what they are, or in order to predict how prices might change if policy or economic structure changed.
In relative pricing, a less ambitious question is answered. We ask what we can learn about an asset’s
value given the prices of some other assets. We do not ask where the prices of the other assets came
from, and we use as little information about fundamental risk factors as possible. Black—Scholes
(1973) option pricing is the classic example of this approach and its extension Contingent Claim
Analysis (CCA) developed for crediting a country’s default risk. Notwithstanding, there is no solid
line between absolute and relative asset pricing models at least in application3. The problem is how
much relative and how much absolute model may explain asset pricing fundamentals.
Figure 1 outlines the theoretical development and the root of asset pricing in short. The main
distinction starts with the notion that how individual preferences over the distribution of uncertain
wealth are taken place. Financial economists have different views on this ground which can be
classified as neoclassical based4 and behavioral based5. The rational notion behind this paradigm shift
is coming from the way individuals make their decisions. Individuals, in a simplified manner, make
observations, process the data coming out from these observations and come to point in concluding the
results. As Shefrin (2005) pointed out that in finance, these judgments and decisions pertain to the
composition of individual portfolios, the range of securities offered in the market, the character of
earnings forecasts, and the manner in which securities are priced through time. In building a
framework for the study of financial markets, academics face a fundamental choice. They need to
choose a set of assumptions about the judgments, preferences, and decisions of participants in
2
The reason for this limitation is about giving as much intiutive background of central theories as possible while
being informed about the full literature written on asset pricing. We simply cannot explain every single models
developed in the field of asset pricing in a paper.
3
Cochrane (2005) explains that asset pricing problems are solved by judiciously choosing how much absolute
and how much relative pricing one will do, depending on the assets in question and the purpose of the
calculation. Almost no problems are solved by the pure extremes. For example, the CAPM and its successor
factor models are paradigms of the absolute approach. Yet in applications, they price assets ‘‘relative’’ to the
market or other risk factors, without answering what determines the market or factor risk premia and betas. The
latter are treated as free parameters. On the other end of the spectrum, even the most practical financial
engineering questions usually involve assumptions beyond pure lack of arbitrage, assumptions about equilibrium
‘‘market prices of risk.’’
4
Interested readers may consult Cochrane (2005) for the neoclassical based models whereas Contingent Claim
Analysis (CCA) is not extended to macro level in this book. For useful explanations about CCA applied in
macro level see Gray, et.al., (2007) for theoretical explanations and also Keller, et.al., (2007) for an application
made on Turkey.
5
Interested readers may consult Shefrin (2005) for the behavioral based models. In the scope of the present
paper we will not cover in depth analysis made on the bevarioral contourparts.
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis 143
financial markets. In the neoclassical framework, financial decision-makers possess von Neumann–
Morgenstern preferences over uncertain wealth distributions, and use Bayesian techniques to make
appropriate statistical judgments from the data at their disposal.
Asset Pricing
On the other spectrum, behavioral finance is the study of how psychological phenomena
impact financial behavior. Behavioralizing asset pricing theory means tracing the implications of
behavioral assumptions for equilibrium prices. Psychologists working in the area of behavioral
decision making have produced much evidence that people do not behave as if they have von
Neumann–Morgenstern preferences, and do not form judgments in accordance with Bayesian
principles. Rather, they systematically behave in a manner different from both. Notably, behavioral
psychologists have advanced theories that address the causes and effects associated with these
systematic departures. The behavioral counterpart to von Neumann–Morgenstern theory is known as
prospect theory. The behavioral counterpart to Bayesian theory is known as “heuristics and biases.”
Evidences that are against Efficient Market Hypothesis developed by behavioral finance as follows:
High volume anomaly (Shiller, 1998); Equity Premium Puzzle (Mehra and Prescott, 1985); Volatility
(Shiller, 1998); and Predictability (Fama and French, 1988). One of the central themes of behavioral
finance is the psychological phenomenon people faced with (Shiller, 2003; Thaler, 2000; Kahneman
and Tversky, 1979; Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). These are Overconfidence (Daniel, et.al., 1998;
Lord, et.al., 1979; Daniel and Titman, 1999; Barber and Odean, 1999); Barber and Odean, 2001);
Overreaction (DeBondt and Thaler, 1985, 1987; Optimism (Weinstein, 1980; Taylor and Brown,
1988; Statman, 2002); Availability Heuristic (Barberis and Thaler, 2003); Regret Aversion (Statman,
2002; Bar-Hillel and Neter, 1996; Shefrin and Statman, 1985; Shiller, 1998); Representative Heuristic
(Tversky and Kahneman, 1971; Tversky and Kahneman, 1973) ; Anchoring Heuristic (Tversky and
Kahneman, 1974); Ambiguity Aversion (Ellsberg, 1961; Barberis and Thaler, 2003; French and
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012, pp.141-178 144
Poterba, 1991; Baxter and Jermann, 1997; Benartzi, 2001); Impossibility of applying optimization in
practice (Camerer, 1997; Benartzi and Thaler, 2001); Misattribution (Johnson and Tversky, 1983;
Saunders, 1993); Social events (Shiller, 1998; Hong, et.al., 2004; Bikhcandani and Sharma, 2000;
MacGregor, 2002).
More importantly the source of factors that affect the risk premium may also play a role to
classify the models such as the models based on macro economic or firm specific factors depending
upon the underlying assumptions behind. However, there is a clear argument to classify the models on
theoretical ground that generalizing the findings from an empirical investigation is much reasonable
than doing that by data mining. Table 1 reports the main development of Capital Asset Pricing
Models which were explained in the scope of the paper. Starting from Markowitz mean-variance
algorithm, we will explain the models into two main categories as static and dynamic models.
The main reasons behind the classification7 and formation of the model exhibited in Table 1
are historical development of the advances in asset pricing and theoretical extensions which are built
on Sharpe-Lintner CAPM. To divide the models into framework of static and dynamic structure is
useful on the theoretical ground to demonstrate how to generalize the model from discrete time
process to continuous. The models exhibited in Table 1 are just a model in one way or another to give
a simplified description of complex reality and are not free of incomplete justifications. Even tough a
model that is not an exact description of reality, it is still useful and in most cases better than a simple
average of sample return.
3. Research Methodology
This part is a complemented section to part 2 in which an extensive theoretical review made
on asset pricing models. The empirical research conducted on asset pricing literature is presented here
on systematic based selection criteria so called Structural Empirical Review (SER). In fact, SER is a
technique specifically designed and developed for the present paper to analyze research papers’
evidence and interpreting the results on more robust framework. At the first stage, we selected the
6
This is Dittmar working paper whereas article form is published in 2002.
7
Cochrane (2005) induced every asset pricing model into a consumption based asset pricing framework and
explained the dynamics of asset pricing model from different order.
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis 145
most appropriate journals through ISI WEB of Knowledge database and sorted articles based on the
field such as economics, finance in addition with the total number of citations and impact factors of
the journals. In doing this, we reached 43 journals and around 2000 articles (see table 2 for details).
The first elimination criterion we employed is that an article should contain an empirical investigation
of asset pricing models. This elimination reduced the number of articles to 416. At this stage we
explore one of the main concerns for the field of asset pricing that how much attention is paid to asset
pricing models in literature. The question is partially answered by showing the numbers of inter-
citations among the 416 articles.
Graph 1 shows the total number of citations made by the articles to themselves on annual
basis. For example, there are more than 120 citations made by the articles to the other articles in the
pool in 1996. The most interesting conclusion coming out from the inter-citation statistics is that there
is a decreasing trend on asset pricing models. However, the results have two important constraints: (i)
these articles do contain at least an empirical investigation employed on asset pricing models. There
are many theoretical articles left not to be taken into account for this question. Even in this analysis we
exclude about 1600 articles; (ii) the results are limited to 43 highly cited journals. However, there are a
considerable amount of journals published in field of finance and economics.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1974
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
The second elimination criterion is that an article should primarily investigate an asset pricing
model and their assumptions or predictions. This elimination criterion reduced the number of articles
to 136 that are deserved to be reviewed for section six (structural empirical review of asset pricing
studies). The main purpose of the review process can be classified as follows: (i) To explore the
process of asset pricing literature; (ii) To examine the results of empirical examination made on static
and dynamic asset pricing models; (iii) To document the estimation techniques employed in the
articles and (iv) To document the main problems developed in the field and their empirical findings.
Table 2 depicts the first 25 finance journals sorted on total citation which also include the first
15 finance journals sorted on impact factor classified by ISI Web of Knowledge. This ensures the
quality of the journals. Table 3 shows the first 20 economics journals based on impact factor classified
by ISI Web of Knowledge. Two journals are classified in both searching process so that in total, 43
highly cited journals are reviewed.
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012, pp.141-178 146
Table 2. Reviewed Journals and the Relevant Statistics (2006): Sorted by impact factor and total citation
Serach for 'CAPM Search for 'Capital Asset
Sorted by total citation (2006) Search for 'CAPM' test' Pricing Models' (CAPM)
Data Full Full Full
Journal Name Interval Database Text Abstract Title Text Abstract Title Text Abstract Title
1 JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING & ECONOMICS 1979-2008 sciencedirect 36 2 34 0 176 1
2 JOURNAL OF FINANCE 1946-2004 Jstor 477 43 14 345 7 1 1049 9 0
3 REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES 1996-2008 Springerlink 13 0 12 0 82 0
4 JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS 1974-2008 sciencedirect 191 34 174 13 616 48
5 JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH 1963-2002 Jstor 32 0 0 29 0 0 136 0 0
6 ACCOUNTING REVIEW 1926-2002 Jstor 37 2 0 28 1 0 173 1 0
7 REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES 1988-2004 Jstor 107 6 1 84 1 0 268 4 0
8 JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS 1975-2008 sciencedirect 23 3 19 2 5 0
9 JOURNAL OF CORPORATE FINANCE 1994-2008 sciencedirect 11 0 9 0 69 0
ACCOUNTING ORGANIZATIONS AND
10 SOCIETY 1976-2008 sciencedirect 10 0 8 0 102 0
11 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 1973-2007 Proquest 65 34 0 0 76 47
12 FINANCE AND STOCHASTICS 1997-2008 ebsco host 3 1 0 0 0 0
13 WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW 1998-2008 abi/inform 0 0 0 0 0 0
JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND
14 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS 1966-2003 Jstor 189 14 5 131 0 0 409 5 1
15 JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 1990-2008 sciencedirect 3 0 2 0 46 0
JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND
16 BANKING 1969-2004 Jstor 29 0 0 14 0 0 171 0 0
17 JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS 1952-2002 Jstor 10 1 0 8 0 0 38 0 0
18 MATHEMATICAL FINANCE 1997-2008 ebsco host 16 3 0 0 16 3
AUDITING-A JOURNAL OF PRACTICE &
19 THEORY 1995-2008 Na 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL MARKETS 1998-2008 sciencedirect 14 1 12 0 33 0
21 QUANTITATIVE FINANCE 2001-2008 informaworld 9 3 7 0 20 0
22 JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 1988-2008 ebsco host 5 0 0 0 9 0
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY
23 AND FINANCE 1982-2008 sciencedirect 60 13 53 5 233 9
CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING
24 RESEARCH 1984-2007 ebsco host 30 5 0 0 29 0
25 JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE 1977-2008 sciencedirect 183 26 160 7 769 29
Total 1553 191 20 1129 36 1 4525 156 1
Sharpe-Lintner CAPM
COV R Xi , RMi
E R X r f
E R M r f ......................................................1
VARR Mi
COV R Xi , RMi
Where; X
VARRMi
CAPM states that expected return ( E R X ) of an asset is equal to risk free rate ( r f ) plus asset’s risk
premium ( X E RM r f ). ( E R M is the expected return of hypothetical market portfolio return
which consists of all assets.)
COV R Xi , R Mi
E R X E R Z E R M E RZ .........................................2
VARRMi
Following Black (1972), the expression (2) is known as Zero Beta CAPM. Contrary to S-L CAPM, the
difference is that risk free rate is replaced by return of portfolio Z which is uncorrelated with market
portfolio. Portfolio Z technically can be called as companion8 portfolio for market portfolio since it is
uncorrelated. As Black explained that the model in expression (2) can explain why average estimates
of alpha values are positive for low beta securities and negative for high beta securities contrary to the
prediction of S-L CAPM.
Where:
PM : total value of all marketable assets
PH : total value of all nonmarketable assets
RH : one period rate of return on nonmarketable assets
Expression (3) indicates that nevertheless asset pricing is still independent of individual preferences.
Even tough unsystematic risk of the nonmarketable assets will affect individual preferences on
portfolio choices; it is only the systematic, economy-wide, component of non marketable asset returns
that matters. Asset pricing is still affected by covariance risk but it is now an asset’s covariance with
the market as well as its covariance with the systematic non-market asset return that matters.
8
This is a technical property of efficient frontier. See Merton (1972) and Roll (1977) for details.
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012, pp.141-178 148
ER X r f XM ERM r f XP E RP r f ......................................................4
Where:
The expression (4)9 depicts the expected return on asset X with market portfolio returns and portfolio
P which can be seen as a perfectly correlated portfolio with a composition of multiple consumption
goods.
International CAPM
COV R X , RWM
E R X r fX
VAR R
E RWM r fW ..................................................5
WM
Where
X denotes the international systematic risk of security I, i.e. calculated in relation to the worldwide
market portfolio;
r fX denotes the rate of the risk-free asset in the country of security I;
r fW denotes the rate of the average worldwide risk-free asset; and
RWM denotes the return on the worldwide market portfolio.
All the rates of return are expressed in the currency of the asset I country.
Several authors have developed international versions of the CAPM. Among these, we could mention
Solnik’s model10 (1974a), which is called the International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM). This model
uses a risk-free rate from the country of asset I and an average worldwide risk-free rate, obtained by
making up a portfolio of risk-free assets from different countries in the world. The weightings used are
again the same as those used for the worldwide market portfolio.
9
Derivation of expression (4) can be found in Balvers (2001). As Balvers underlined that such case is
overlooked in the literature whereas the dinamic version of the model can be found in Breeden (1979, section 7).
10
See equation 16 in Solnik (1974).
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis 149
where the values of 0 and 1 are the same for every asset. Expression (6.1) holds as a strict equality
rf 0 .
only for an exact single-factor model. If risk free asset is present, its return, , equals
RX rf
Alternatively if the factor model is constructed to explain excess returns, then 0 0 . When
0 r f
, the APT predicts:
The weight 1 is interpreted as the risk premium associated with the factor – that is, the risk premium
corresponds to the source of the systematic risk. In similar vein, if there are multifactor specification:
E R X r f X 1 E RM r f X 2 E SMB X 3 E HML ...........................(7)
Where the model says that the expected return on a portfolio in excess of the risk-free rate [E(Ri) – Rf]
is explained by the sensitivity of its return to three factors: (i) the excess return on a broad market
portfolio (RM- Rf); (ii) the difference between the return on a portfolio of small stocks and the return
on a portfolio of large stocks (SMB, small minus big); and (iii) the difference between the return on a
portfolio of high-book-to-market stocks and the return on a portfolio of low-book-to-market stocks
(HML, high minus low). Fama and French (1992; 1993; 1996) assume that the financial markets are
indeed efficient but the market factor does not explain all the risks on its own. They concluded that a
three factor model does describe the assets return whereas they specify that the selection of the factors
is not unique. In addition to the factors that are contained in three factors model they postulate
additional factors that also have explanatory power.
CLPM r f RM , R X
ER X r f
LPM r f RM
ER r
M f .................................................(8.1)
Where
E R X is the equilibrium expected rate of return on asset i;
E R M is the equilibrium expected rate of return on the market portfolio;
LPM r f R M is the lower partial moment of returns below risk free rate on the market portfolio;
CLPM r f R M , R X is the co-lower partial moment below risk free rate on the market portfolio with
returns on security X.
rf
f RM , R X RM r f R X r f df R X , RM
f R M , R X is joint probability density function of returns on asset X and on the market portfolio.
Hogan and Warren (1974) and Bawa and Lindenberg (1977) independently developed a mean-lower
partial moment capital asset pricing model (EL-CAPM). In deriving expression (8.1), the target rate in
all cases was set equal to the risk free rate. Systematic risk indicator beta is measured by CLPM/LPM
on the contrary to COV/VAR in S-L CAPM. The authors suggest that the replacement of this change
should be employed when there are distinct and significant differences between the two
measurements. Harlow and Rao (1989) generalize Hogan and Warren (1974) and Bawa and
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012, pp.141-178 150
Lindenberg (1977) and attempt for nth order lower partial moment and show in general that in this
scenario a one-beta CAPM obtains as follows:
ER X r f XMLPM n E RM r f ..................................................................(8.2)
Where
RM r f R X df R X , RM
n 1
XMLPM n
RM
n 1
r f RM df RM
where the error term, i , is assumed to be homoscedastic, independent of the excess rate of return on
the market portfolio, R M r f , independent of the squared deviation of the excess rate of return on the
market portfolio from its expected value, ( R M R M ) 2 , and to have an expected value of zero. Taking
expected values in (9) and subtracting, to express the quadratic market model in deviation form, then
multiplying both sides by R M R M , taking expected values and dividing through by R2 M yields an
expression for the beta of the ith risk asset:
( R M R M ) 3 . Similarly, multiplying both sides of the deviation form of the quadratic
c c
X 1i 2i 2
RM
X c 1i c 2 i
M
K 4 2 2
RM
where
K M4 E R M R M
4
3
R M R M
The forth central moment of the rate of return on market portfolio
By restricting investor preferences, Rubinstein [1973a] and Kraus and Litzenberger 11 [1976] extended
the traditional Sharpe-Lintner mean-variance capital asset pricing model to incorporate the effects of
skewness on equilibrium expected rates of return.
11
See equation 6 in Kraus and Litzenberger (1976).
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis 151
where
X , M X , NF NF ,M X , NF X ,M NF ,M
1X AND 2 X
1 NF , M 1 NF ,M
2 2
E R NF denotes the expected rate of return of a portfolio that has perfect negative correlation with
the risk-free asset r f . All the rates of return are used in this model are continuous rates. If the risk-
free rate is not stochastic, or if it is not correlated with the market risk, then the third fund disappears,
X , NF NF , M 0 .. We then come back to the standard formulation of the CAPM, except that
the rates of return are instantaneous and the distribution of returns is lognormal instead of being
normal.
COV R X , RC
X ,C
VARRC
Breeden (1979) derives a single beta asset pricing model in multi-good, continuous-time model with
uncertain consumption goods prices and uncertain investment opportunities. In Consumption CAPM12,
the equity premium is proportional to a single beta, which is the covariance with consumption (usually
replaced with consumption growth per capita in empirical tests) rather than to the market portfolio.
12
See equation 21 in Bredeen (1979).
13
Balvers (2001) derives the expression (13) based on the equation 6 in Lucas (1978).
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012, pp.141-178 152
was to understand the relationship between these exogenously determined productivity changes and
market determined movements in asset prices and usually used to explain the equity premium puzzle14
Investment-Based CAPM
g t 1
R I s t 1 f k t 1 k g I t ..................................................................(14)
g I t 1
Where
t t 1
R I is the investment return from state s to state s
t
The notation (t) means ‘evaluated with respect to the appropriate arguments at time t in state s ’ and
subscript denote partial derivatives. Cochrane derived the expected return and investment relationship
in a non standard asset pricing equation with functional form. Cochrane (1991) obtained equation 15
(14) in the specific context of a complete markets economy. It can be interpreted as the physical
investment return of a firm. It is obtained from a within-firm type of arbitrage: invest in the current
period and then withdraw enough investment in the next period to keep the capital stock for future
periods equal to what it would have been without the current period investment; the net payoff per unit
extra investment in the current period is the investment return.
2X
COV ctX Et 1 ctX
, ctM E t 1 ctM
VAR RtM Et 1 RtM
ctM Et 1 ctM
COV R , c E c
X M M
3X t t t 1 t
VARR E R c E c
t
M
t 1 t
M M
t t 1
M
t
COV c E c , R E R
X X M M
4X t t 1 t t t 1 t
VARR E R c E c
t
M
t 1 t
M
t
M
t 1 t
M
E t E RtM ctM r f
Acharya and Pedersen (2005) present a simple theoretical model that helps to explain how asset prices
are affected by liquidity risk and commonality in liquidity. The model provides a unified theoretical
framework that can explain the empirical findings by pricing market liquidity, average liquidity, and
liquidity that co-moves with returns and predicting future returns. In the liquidity based CAPM16, the
expected return of a security is increasing in its expected illiquidity and its ‘‘net beta,’’ which is
i
proportional to the covariance of its return, r ; net of its exogenous illiquidity costs, c i , with the
14
Mehra and Prescott use the Lucas Model to explain the theoretical discussion behind the puzzle. (cited in
Constantinides, et.al., (2003, chapter 14))
15
See equation 12 in Cochrane (1991) in addition with some specific functional form given for operational
purposes in emprical tests.
16
See equation 8 for the conditional version of expression (5) and equation 12 for unconditional version, the one
explained here, in Acharya and Pedersen (2005).
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis 153
market portfolio’s net return r M c M . The net beta can be decomposed into the standard market beta
and three betas representing different forms of liquidity risk. These liquidity risks are associated with:
(i) commonality in liquidity with the market liquidity, COV c i , c M ; (ii) return sensitivity to market
liquidity, COV r i , c M ; and, (iii) liquidity sensitivity to market returns, COV c i , r M .
Conditional CAPM
E R Xt t 1 0t 1 1t 1 Xt 1 .........................................................................(16.1)
where
Xt 1 is the conditional beta of asset i and in each period t,
COV R Xt , R Mt t 1
Xt 1
VARR Mt t 1
The subscript t indicates the relevant time period. R Xt denotes the gross return on asset X in period t
and in similar manner, R Mt is the gross return on the aggregate wealth portfolio of all assets in the
economy in period t. Explaining cross sectional variations in the unconditional expected return on
different asset, take the unconditional expectation of both sides of expression (16.1):
E R Xt 0 1 X COV 1t 1 , Xt 1 ...........................................................(16.2)
where
0 E0t 1 , 1 E1t 1 and X E Xt 1
Here, 1 -lamdal is the expected market risk premium, and X is the expected beta. If the covariance
between the conditional beta of asset X and the conditional market risk premium is zero (or a linear
function of the expected beta) for every arbitrarily chosen asset X, then expression (16.1) resembles
the static CAPM, i.e., the expected return is a linear function of the expected beta. One of the
assumptions of S-L CAPM is that the behavior of investors is estimated for one period. This is why it
is necessary to make certain assumption that the betas of assets remain constant through the time in
empirical examination of the CAPM. Jagannathan and Wang (1996) propose this model that includes
this assumption for the reason that the relative risk of a firm's cash flow is likely to vary over the
business cycle.
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012, pp.141-178 154
17 Bachrach and Is the economic rationale for the existence US Data — [1926 CAPM OLS Low price stocks are riskier than high price stocks. In the long
Galai (1979) of specific characteristics for groups of – 1968] run, the compensation is the same, on the average, for the two
securities in "low" and "high" price ranges? mutually exclusive price groups. Only part of the relatively high
average rate of return on the low price stocks can be explained
by their relatively high systematic risk.
18 Fowler, How residual behavior exists? US Data — [1965 CAPM OLS It is found that there is evidence of heteroscedasticity and low R2
et.al., (1979) – 1976] and a noticeable dependence of these with frequency of trading
in the underlying stock.
19 Baesel and Do insiders earn more than uninformed US Data — [1968 CAPM OLS. . Both ordinary insiders and bank directors earned positive
Stein (1979) investors? – 1972] premium returns relative to an uninformed trading strategy.
20 Brown, Are the market imperfection US Data — [1955 CAPM OLS There is an association between the level of autocorrelation and
(1979) (autocorrelation) associated with – 1973] the level of beta. The CAPM is the least misspecified in those
misspecification of the CAPM? subsamples where autocorrelation is essentially neutral.
21 Schallheim and Is Fama-Macbeth procedure efficient than US Data — [1935 CAPM and OLS and The simple Fama-MacBeth (averaging procedure) appears to be
Demagistris Random Coefficient Regression? – 1974] Zero beta Random sufficient. However the evidence exhibited by the percentage
(1980) CAPM coefficient differences suggests that the RCR procedure does make a
regression difference especially over the long periods.
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012, pp.141-178 156
102 Ferson, et.al., How tests of asset pricing with time-varying US Data — [1963 CAPM Maximum A single risk premium model of expected returns is not rejected
(1987) expected risk premiums and market betas – 1982] likelihood if the premium is allowed to vary over time and if the risk
perform? methods measures associated with that premium are not constrained to
equal market betas.
103 Bollerslev, Do all investors choose mean-variance US Data — [1959 CAPM (GARCH-M) The conditional covariance matrix of the asset returns is
et.al., (1988) efficient portfolios with one period horizon – 1984] maximum strongly autoregressive. The data clearly reject the assumption
although they need not have identical utility likelihood that this matrix is constant over time.
functions? estimation
104 Kroll and Levy What are the effects of the correlations Experimental CAPM and Mean-variance As predicted by the CAPM, in most cases the subjects
(1988) between the risky assets on investment (questionnaire) MPT mathematics + diversified their investment capital among the three risky assets.
portfolios? Is separation theorem valid? data ANOVA However, on the average the subjects invested considerably
more than predicted in the riskiest asset. The introduction of a
riskless asset did not enhance homogeneity in investment
behavior, in contradiction to the Separation Theorem
105 Burmeister and How APT and CAPM perform? US Data — [1972 CAPM and Iterated The January effect is an important determinant of expected
McElroy – 1982] APT nonlinear WLS, returns. The existence of a January effect that is not explained
(1988) iterated by this set of factors is evident, but, it would be trivial to add a
nonlinear SUR portfolio that exhibits a strong January effect and hence
and iterated represents a "January factor." Including or excluding a
nonlinear three January effect has, however, no appreciable effect on the
stage least following results from nested testing: the CAPM restrictions on
squares. the APT are rejected; the APT restrictions on the LFM are not
rejected.
106 Connor and How APT and CAPM perform? US Data — [1964 APT and Asymptotic The APT performs much better than either implementation of
Korajczyk – 1983] CAPM principal the CAPM in explaining the January-specific mispricing related
(1988) component to firm size. This result is due to seasonality in the estimated
(factor risk premiums of the multi-factor model that is not captured by
analysis)+OLS the single-factor CAPM relations, even though the premium in
the latter model also exhibits seasonality
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis 167
7. Concluding Remarks
The purpose of this paper is to give a comprehensive theoretical review devoted to asset pricing
models by emphasizing static and dynamic versions in the line with their empirical investigations.
This paper fills the gap in literature by giving a comprehensive review of the models and evaluating
the historical stream of empirical investigations in the form of structural empirical review. The
distinctiveness of the study is that this is the first attempt to review literature written on asset pricing
models and the empirical investigation conducted in the form of structural empirical review. In doing
so, the historical perspective of the concept and the place it will take in future are clarified and the way
further researches conducted will be explored. As it is highlighted in section 6, we present 136
research question investigated in asset pricing literature. Concluding remarks can be divided into two
main categories such as theoretical perspective and empirical investigation perspective. In terms of
theoretical perspective, we show that asset pricing models try to adopt additional variables into pricing
process. This procedure is starting with the relaxing one of the assumptions of the previous model or
approaching the problem from different perspectives. From static, one period model we see that
dynamic, intertemporal models get the higher attention than static, one period models. In terms of
empirical investigation perspective, it is documented that econometric advancement takes its biggest
place ever in financial literature when compared with the other field. Almost every single econometric
estimation technique is used to determine the most unbiased estimators of given model. This
underlines the fact that the direction of advancing a methodology is changing from financial literature
to economics due to the fact that there is huge account of raw data available to analyze. Future
research direction should be judging the empirical power of the asset pricing models and their role in
practice for incorporating a new dimension to the model.
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