Goldman Asia Conviction Call Catch-Up 13sep10
Goldman Asia Conviction Call Catch-Up 13sep10
Goldman Asia Conviction Call Catch-Up 13sep10
coverage universe and -0.1% hedged with MSCI AEJ (year-to-date: +3.2% 50%
and +3.7%), while Japan CL generated -0.2% alpha hedged with our rated 40%
coverage universe and was flat hedged with TOPIX (year-to-date: +0.4% 30%
10%
CL additions during w/e September 10. Chimei Innolux (Buy) and Honghua 0%
Jun-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-06
Oct-06
Dec-06
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
(Sell) were added to the AEJ CL. JFE Holdings (Buy) was added to the
Japan CL. Specific reasons for each of these CL additions can be found by Conviction List vs. AEJ rated coverage Conviction List vs. MSCI AEJ
clicking the appropriate link in the “Latest research” section of this report. Japan CL hedged performance since inception
35%
CL removals during w/e September 10. We removed ANA (Sell) from the
30%
Japan CL due to a lack of near-term catalysts to reverse recent share price
25%
15%
5%
The DOR Asia Focus List currently consists of 16 stocks and reflects the
0%
AEJ and Japan CL stocks that research management finds most attractive
-5%
on a range of qualitative/quantitative factors. For the w/e September 10,
Jun-06
Aug-06
Oct-06
Dec-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Focus List alpha hedged with MSCI Asia was +1.8% (year-to-date: +2.8%) Conviction List vs. Japan rated coverage Conviction List vs. TOPIX
Marine, Sumitomo Heavy, Tata Steel, and Wistron Corp. Results presented above cannot be viewed as an indicator
of future performance.
Paul D. Bernard, CFA The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with
+852-2978-1587 paul.bernard@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
Keith Hayes
+852-2978-1333 keith.hayes@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
Mike Warren
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
+852-2978-1383 mike.warren@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the
Joy Nguyen
end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification,
+852-2978-1106 joy.nguyen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US
affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the
U.S.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.
Monitoring. We segment our coverage universe into appropriate sub-sectors and measure
Conviction Call performance relative to the sub-sector on a total return, equal weight, local
currency, and daily rebalance methodology. We use an equal-weighted basis to keep the
focus on idea generation, which means the resulting Conviction List is unencumbered by
attempts to call the market or relative performance of sectors, and does not try to adjust for
size and liquidity. The returns of individual ideas are calculated using the first closing price
post publication of the idea and the first closing price post publication of the idea’s expiry.
Performance calculations assume closing levels with no bid/ask spread and no commission.
We regularly review each Conviction Call to check the validity of our rating. If a Conviction
Call reaches our target price or moves against our rating, we consider whether to keep it or
to remove it to realize gains or limit losses.
The prices in this report are based on the market close of September 10, 2010. Relative performance of individual Conviction Calls is calculated relative to rated Conviction Call sector.
Results presented above cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
For methodology and risks associated with price targets mentioned, please refer to the analyst’s previously published research. Link to Japan Research: https://360.gs.com/gir/portal/research/ir/asia/japan/.
For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html
FY0 stands for the last reported fiscal year, FY1 for the upcoming reported fiscal year, and FY2 for the next fiscal year after FY1.
Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.
FY0 stands for the last reported fiscal year, FY1 for the upcoming reported fiscal year, and FY2 for the next fiscal year after FY1.
Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Exhibit 1: DOR Asia Focus List stocks: Summary of key characteristics and reasons for inclusion
Data as of September 10, 2010 close. (1) Basic Director's Cut (DC): The framework selects valuation outliers based on sector relative EV/GCI (market value of gross cash invested) to CROCI/WACC (excess returns). The underlying
assumption of the methodology is that a company's EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC ratio will converge with the sector average over time as under/overvaluations are arbitraged away. Stocks that are in the most attractive 20% (i.e. below the
sector average line and appear undervalued) are assigned a score of 1 and in the least attractive 20% a score of 5. Scores are on a 12-month forward basis. (2) Investment Profiling (IP): Each stock is ranked relative to our AEJ/Japan
coverage universe on growth, returns and valuation. We combine these rankings to produce an overall score, called Investment Profiling (IP) score, of how attractive each stock appears on these criteria vs. its peer group. Stocks that are in
the top 20% (i.e. which offer strong growth, high returns and trade at attractive multiples on a sector relative basis) are assigned a score of 1 and in the bottom 20% a score of 5. IP scores as of September 9, 2010 close. (3) On our GS
SUSTAIN Focus List.
Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.
Stock Reasons for inclusion in DOR Asia Focus List + potential catalysts
Attractive valuation at below mid-cycle EV/IC and beneficiary of potential cyclical recovery in orders for key export products such as construction and
Sumitomo
plastic injection molding equipment for China. 2QFY3/11 result in Oct should provide increased visibility on potential strong recovery in FY3/11E ROE/EPS
Heavy
and our EPS estimates are currently significantly ahead of both company guidance and consensus forecasts
Attractive valuation at below mid-cycle P/B and stronger-than-expected cyclical recovery in its bulk and container shipping operations with sector-relative
China COSCO
CROCI to rise to Quartile 1 in 2012E from Quartile 3 in 2010E. 3Q10 result in Oct should provide more visibility on this recovery and push up consensus
(A)
EPS/ROE estimates as bulk shipping freight rates strengthen due to dissipating market concerns on industry oversupply/hard landing for China’s economy
Attractive valuation at steep NAV discount and strong upside leverage if market concerns on a prolonged downturn in China’s property market dissipate.
Evergrande Real
During 2H10, the following catalysts should become more visible and cause the NAV discount to narrow: (1) solid ytd execution on residential unit sales
Estate
and improving financial position; and (2) stabilization in China’s real estate sector following 1H10 introduction of government tightening measures
Leverage to potential recovery in LCD panel prices and shipment volumes during 4Q10/1Q11 and attractive valuation at below mid-cycle P/B. During 4Q10,
Chimei Innolux we expect LCD datapoints should provide increased visibility on potential recovery in LCD panel prices, with demand from the Chinese market a key
driver. 4Q10 result in Jan 2011 should provide evidence of this recovery and a positive outlook for 1H11
Leverage to China’s strong economic growth outlook and attractive valuation at below mid-cycle P/B. Outperformance over next 6-12 months to be driven
Angang Steel (A) by 2H10 stabilization and modest 1H11 recovery in steel ASPs and demand, following 1H10 softening on the back of government tightening measures in
key sectors such as property. 3Q10 result in Oct should provide initial datapoints to show stabilization in steel ASPs and demand
Attractive valuation at below mid-cycle P/E and beneficiary of potential increase in China A-share trading volumes over the next 6-12 months. We forecast
CITIC Securities
monthly A-share trading volumes should start to increase during 4Q10 and 1Q11 as inflationary pressures in China’s economy dissipate and government
(A)
tightening measures come to an end
Attractive valuation at below mid-cycle P/B and beneficiary of ongoing restructuring through the integration of Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric
Panasonic Corp Works. During 2HFY3/11, we expect further visibility on potential restructuring benefits through the announcement of specific integration measures and
possible synergies from these measures
Attractive valuation at below mid-cycle P/B and beneficiary of cyclical recovery in key businesses and restructuring measures in prior years. 2QFY3/11 result
FUJIFILM
in Oct should provide increased visibility on a potential strong recovery in FY3/11E ROE/EPS on the back of two key catalysts: (1) lower costs following
Holdings
several years of structural reforms; and (2) improving returns in core businesses, such as medical and LCD materials
Leverage to the strong growth prospects for China’s gas distribution sector. Outperformance over next 6-12 months to be driven by increasing visibility on
China Gas
robust gas sales volume growth we forecast for FY3/11. 1HFY3/11 result in Dec should provide evidence of this growth and also should provide an update
Holdings
on latest developments in the company’s LPG business
Reasonable valuation at below mid-cycle P/E and stronger-than-expected ROE and EPS growth in 2010/2011. Recent market concerns on margin pressure
Wistron Corp should dissipate as investors refocus on the company’s diversification into higher-margin products such as LCD TV and desktop PC. 3Q10 result in Oct
should highlight stable operating margin outlook and strong ROE/EPS growth prospects during 2H10
Attractive valuation at lower end of historical Embedded Value (EV) range and stronger-than-expected EV growth over next 6-12 months. Monthly results
Samsung Fire &
during 2HFY3/11 should show strong performance from new products, with growth coming not only from savings products but also from higher-margin
Marine
protection type insurance
Reasonable valuation and leverage to strong growth potential of China’s wind power sector. 2H10 result in Mar 2011 should provide increased visibility on
China High
following two key catalysts: (1) strong growth in its principal business of wind gearbox manufacturing (3-year sales CAGR of 24% over 2010E-2012E); and
Speed
(2) emerging growth drivers from the company’s marine gear and high-speed/light rail operations
Attractive valuation at below mid-cycle NAV discount and beneficiary from current upcycle in Singapore’s real estate market and potential 2011 recovery
CapitaLand in China’s property market. Potential catalysts during 2H10: (1) expanding margins for Ascott, its international service residence business; and (2)
stabilization in China’s property market as investors become more confident recent tightening measures should not cause a prolonged downturn
Reasonable valuation at mid-cycle P/B and P/E and leverage to operational turnaround at its restructured European steel business on which market
Tata Steel expectations are at a low level with current share price implying a negative EV and operating losses. 2QFY3/11 result in Nov should provide increased
visibility on improving performance at its European operations and a positive outlook for its steel business in India
Attractive valuation at lower end of historical P/E range and leverage to strong growth prospects for the company’s industry-leading global outsourcing
Li & Fung business. Outperformance over next 6-12 months to be driven by further evidence of sustainability of higher margins in its onshore business, execution
progress on recent acquisitions, and increasing visibility on long-term growth potential of the company’s Wal-Mart business. 2H10 result is in Mar 2011
Leverage to strong growth prospects of Singapore’s gaming market and below-average NAV discount. Outperformance over next 6-12 months to be
Genting Berhad driven by evidence of further robust gaming revenue from its Singapore operations. 3Q10 result in Nov should provide increased visibility on the strong
growth prospects for Singapore and a stable outlook for the company’s operations in Malaysia
Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.
Reg AC
We, Paul D. Bernard, CFA, Keith Hayes and Mike Warren, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal
views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly
or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Investment Profile
The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and
market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites
of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe.
The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows:
Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate
of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend
yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends.
Quantum
Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for
in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.
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