LIST OF 16 MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

(Article from https://www.moneycrashers.com/leading-lagging-economic-indicators/)

Most economists talk about where the economy is headed – it’s what they do. But in case you haven’t noticed,
many of their predictions are wrong. For example, Ben Bernanke (head of the Federal Reserve) made a prediction
in 2007 that the United States was not headed into a recession. He further claimed that the stock and housing
markets would be as strong as ever. As we know now, he was wrong.

Because the pundits’ predictions are often unreliable – purposefully so or not – it is important to develop your own
understanding of the economy and the factors shaping it. Paying attention to economic indicators can give you an
idea of where the economy is headed so you can plan your finances and even your career accordingly.

There are two types of indicators you need to be aware of:

1. Leading indicators often change prior to large economic adjustments and, as such, can be used to
predict future trends.
2. Lagging indicators, however, reflect the economy’s historical performance and changes to these are
only identifiable after an economic trend or pattern has already been established.

Leading Indicators

Because leading indicators have the potential to forecast where an economy is headed, fiscal policymakers and
governments make use of them to implement or alter programs in order to ward off a recession or other negative
economic events. The top leading indicators follow below:

1. Stock Market

Though the stock market is not the most important indicator, it’s the one that most people look to first. Because
stock prices are based in part on what companies are expected to earn, the market can indicate the economy’s
direction if earnings estimates are accurate.

For example, a strong market may suggest that earnings estimates are up and therefore that the overall economy
is preparing to thrive. Conversely, a down market may indicate that company earnings are expected to decrease
and that the economy is headed toward a recession.

However, there are inherent flaws to relying on the stock market as a leading indicator. First, earnings estimates
can be wrong. Second, the stock market is vulnerable to manipulation. For example, the government and Federal
Reserve have used quantitative easing, federal stimulus money, and other strategies to keep markets high in order
to keep the public from panicking in the event of an economic crisis.

Moreover, Wall Street traders and corporations can manipulate numbers to inflate stocks via high-volume trades,
complex financial derivative strategies, and creative accounting principles (legal and illegal). Since individual
stocks and the overall market can be manipulated as such, a stock or index price is not necessarily a reflection of
its true underlying strength or value.

Finally, the stock market is also susceptible to the creation of “bubbles,” which may give a false positive regarding
the market’s direction. Market bubbles are created when investors ignore underlying economic indicators, and
mere exuberance leads to unsupported increases in price levels. This can create a “perfect storm” for a market
correction, which we saw when the market crashed in 2008 as a result of overvalued subprime loans and credit
default swaps.

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2. Manufacturing Activity

Manufacturing activity is another indicator of the state of the economy. This influences the GDP (gross domestic
product) strongly; an increase in which suggests more demand for consumer goods and, in turn, a healthy
economy. Moreover, since workers are required to manufacture new goods, increases in manufacturing activity
also boost employment and possibly wages as well.

However, increases in manufacturing activity can also be misleading. For example, sometimes the goods produced
do not make it to the end consumer. They may sit in wholesale or retailer inventory for a while, which increases
the cost of holding the assets. Therefore, when looking at manufacturing data, it is also important to look at retail
sales data. If both are on the rise, it indicates there is heightened demand for consumer goods. However, it’s also
important to look at inventory levels, which we’ll discuss next.

3. Inventory Levels

High inventory levels can reflect two very different things: either that demand for inventory is expected to increase
or that there is a current lack of demand.

In the first scenario, businesses purposely bulk up inventory to prepare for increased consumption in the coming
months. If consumer activity increases as expected, businesses with high inventory can meet the demand and
thereby increase their profit. Both are good things for the economy.

In the second scenario, however, high inventories reflect that company supplies exceed demand. Not only does
this cost companies money, but it indicates that retail sales and consumer confidence are both down, which further
suggests that tough times are ahead.

4. Retail Sales

Retail sales are particularly important metrics and function hand in hand with inventory levels and manufacturing
activity. Most importantly, strong retail sales directly increase GDP, which also strengthens the home currency.
When sales improve, companies can hire more employees to sell and manufacture more product, which in turn
puts more money back in the pockets of consumers.

One downside to this metric, though, is that it doesn’t account for how people pay for their purchases. For example,
if consumers go into debt to acquire goods, it could signal an impending recession if the debt becomes too steep
to pay off. However, in general, an increase in retail sales indicates an improving economy.

5. Building Permits

Building permits offer foresight into future real estate supply levels. A high volume indicates the construction
industry will be active, which forecasts more jobs and, again, an increase in GDP.

But just like with inventory levels, if more houses are built than consumers are willing to buy, it takes away from
the builder’s bottom line. To compensate, housing prices are likely to decline, which, in turn, devalues the entire
real estate market and not just “new” homes.

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6. Housing Market

A decline in housing prices can suggest that supply exceeds demand, that existing prices are unaffordable, and/or
that housing prices are inflated and need to correct as a result of a housing bubble.

In any scenario, declines in housing have a negative impact on the economy for several key reasons:

1. They decrease homeowner wealth.

2. They reduce the number of construction jobs needed to build new homes, which thereby increases
unemployment.
3. They reduce property taxes, which limits government resources.
4. Homeowners are less able to refinance or sell their homes, which may force them into foreclosure.

When you look at housing data, look at two things: changes in housing values and changes in sales. When sales
decline, it generally indicates that values will also drop. For example, the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007
had dire effects on the economy and is widely blamed for driving the United States into a recession.

7. Level of New Business Startups

The number of new businesses entering the economy is another indicator of economic health. In fact, some have
claimed that small businesses hire more employees than larger corporations and, thereby, contribute more to
addressing unemployment.

Moreover, small businesses can contribute significantly to GDP, and they introduce innovative ideas and products
that stimulate growth. Therefore, increases in small businesses are an extremely important indicator of the
economic well-being of any capitalist nation.

Lagging Indicators

Unlike leading indicators, lagging indicators shift after the economy changes. Although they do not typically tell us
where the economy is headed, they indicate how the economy changes over time and can help identify long-term
trends.

1. Changes in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP is typically considered by economists to be the most important measure of the economy’s current health.
When GDP increases, it’s a sign the economy is strong. In fact, businesses will adjust their expenditures on
inventory, payroll, and other investments based on GDP output.

However, GDP is also not a flawless indicator. Like the stock market, GDP can be misleading because of programs
such as quantitative easing and excessive government spending. For example, the government has increased
GDP by 4% as a result of stimulus spending and the Federal Reserve has pumped approximately $2 trillion into
the economy. Both of these attempts to correct recession fallout are at least partially responsible for GDP growth.

Moreover, as a lagging indicator, some question the true value of the GDP metric. After all, it simply tells us what
has already happened, not what is going to happen. Nonetheless, GDP is a key determinant as to whether or not
the United States is entering a recession. The rule of thumb is that when the GDP drops for more than two quarters,
a recession is at hand.

2. Income and Wages

If the economy is operating efficiently, earnings should increase regularly to keep up with the average cost of living.
When incomes decline, however, it is a sign that employers are either cutting pay rates, laying workers off, or

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reducing their hours. Declining incomes can also reflect an environment where investments are not performing as
well.

Incomes are broken down by different demographics, such as gender, age, ethnicity, and level of education, and
these demographics give insight into how wages change for various groups. This is important because a trend
affecting a few outliers may suggest an income problem for the entire country, rather than just the groups it effects.

3. Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is very important and measures the number of people looking for work as a percentage of
the total labor force. In a healthy economy, the unemployment rate will be anywhere from 3% to 5%.

When unemployment rates are high, however, consumers have less money to spend, which negatively affects
retail stores, GDP, housing markets, and stocks, to name a few. Government debt can also increase via stimulus
spending and assistance programs, such as unemployment benefits and food stamps.

However, like most other indicators, the unemployment rate can be misleading. It only reflects the portion of
unemployed who have sought work within the past four weeks and it considers those with part-time work to be fully
employed. Therefore, the official unemployment rate may actually be significantly understated.

One alternative metric is to include as unemployed workers those who are marginally attached to the workforce
(i.e. those who stopped looking but would take a job again if the economy improved) and those who can only find
part-time work.

4. Consumer Price Index (Inflation)

The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the increased cost of living, or inflation. The CPI is calculated by measuring
the costs of essential goods and services, including vehicles, medical care, professional services, shelter, clothing,
transportation, and electronics. Inflation is then determined by the average increased cost of the total basket of
goods over a period of time.

A high rate of inflation may erode the value of the dollar more quickly than the average consumer’s income can
compensate. This, thereby, decreases consumer purchasing power, and the average standard of living declines.
Moreover, inflation can affect other factors, such as job growth, and can lead to decreases in the employment rate
and GDP.

However, inflation is not entirely a bad thing, especially if it is in line with changes in the average consumer’s
income. Some key benefits to moderate levels of inflation include:

1. It encourages spending and investing, which can help grow an economy. Otherwise, the value of money
held in cash would be simply corroded by inflation.
2. It keeps interest rates at a moderately high level, which encourages people to invest their money and
provide loans to small businesses and entrepreneurs.
3. It’s not deflation, which can lead to an economic depression.

Deflation is a condition in which the cost of living decreases. Although this sounds like a good thing, it is an indicator
that the economy is in very poor shape. Deflation occurs when consumers decide to cut back on spending and is
often caused by a reduction in the supply of money. This forces retailers to lower their prices to meet a lower
demand. But as retailers lower their prices, their profits contract considerably. Since they don’t have as much
money to pay their employees, creditors, and suppliers, they have to cut wages, lay off employees, or default on
their loans.

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These issues cause the supply of money to contract even further, which leads to higher levels of deflation and
creates a vicious cycle that may result in an economic depression.

5. Currency Strength

A strong currency increases a country’s purchasing and selling power with other nations. The country with the
stronger currency can sell its products overseas at higher foreign prices and import products more cheaply.

However, there are advantages to having a weak dollar as well. When the dollar is weak, the United States can
draw in more tourists and encourage other countries to buy U.S. goods. In fact, as the dollar drops, the demand
for American products increases.

6. Interest Rates

Interest rates are another important lagging indicator of economic growth. They represent the cost of borrowing
money and are based around the federal funds rate, which represents the rate at which money is lent from one
bank to another and is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These rates change as a
result of economic and market events.

When the federal funds rate increases, banks and other lenders have to pay higher interest rates to obtain money.
They, in turn, lend money to borrowers at higher rates to compensate, which thereby makes borrowers more
reluctant to take out loans. This discourages businesses from expanding and consumers from taking on debt. As
a result, GDP growth becomes stagnant.

On the other hand, rates that are too low can lead to an increased demand for money and raise the likelihood of
inflation, which as we’ve discussed above, can distort the economy and the value of its currency. Current interest
rates are thus indicative of the economy’s current condition and can further suggest where it might be headed as
well.

7. Corporate Profits

Strong corporate profits are correlated with a rise in GDP because they reflect an increase in sales and therefore
encourage job growth. They also increase stock market performance as investors look for places to invest income.
That said, growth in profits does not always reflect a healthy economy.

For example, in the recession that began in 2008, companies enjoyed increased profits largely as a result of
excessive outsourcing and downsizing (including major job cuts). Since both activities took jobs out of the
economy, this indicator falsely suggested a strong economy.

8. Balance of Trade

The balance of trade is the net difference between the value of exports and imports and shows whether there is a
trade surplus (more money coming into the country) or a trade deficit (more money going out of the country).

Trade surpluses are generally desirable, but if the trade surplus is too high, a country may not be taking full
advantage of the opportunity to purchase other countries’ products. That is, in a global economy, nations specialize
in manufacturing specific products while taking advantage of the goods other nations produce at a cheaper, more
efficient rate.

Trade deficits, however, can lead to significant domestic debt. Over the long term, a trade deficit can result in a
devaluation of the local currency as foreign debt increases. This increase in debt will reduce the credibility of the
local currency, which will inevitably lower the demand for it and thereby the value. Moreover, significant debt will
likely lead to a major financial burden for future generations who will be forced to pay it off.

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9. Value of Commodity Substitutes to U.S. Dollar

Gold and silver are often viewed as substitutes to the U.S. dollar. When the economy suffers or the value of the
U.S. dollar declines, these commodities increase in price because more people buy them as a measure of
protection. They are viewed to have inherent value that does not decline.

Furthermore, because these metals are priced in U.S. dollars, any deterioration or projected decline in the value
of the dollar must logically lead to an increase in the price of the metal. Thus, precious metal prices can act as a
reflection of consumer sentiment towards the U.S. dollar and its future. For example, consider the record-high price
of gold at $1,900 an ounce in 2011 as the value of the U.S. dollar deteriorated.

Final Word

Since the health of the economy is intimately connected to consumer sentiment as can be seen by indicators such
as retail sales, politicians prefer to spin data in a positive light or manipulate it such that everything appears rosy.
For this reason, to accurately characterize the state of the economy, you must rely on your own analysis or perhaps
the analysis of others without a particular agenda.

Keep in mind that most economic indicators work best in corporation with other indicators. By considering the
entire picture, you can thereby make better decisions regarding your overall plans and investments.

Which economic indicators do you usually look at when assessing the overall health of the economy?

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 THE TOP 10 ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WHAT TO WATCH AND WHY
(https://www.aaii.com/journal/article/the-top-10-economic-indicators-what-to-watch-and-why.touch)
Economic reports and indicators are those often-voluminous statistics put out by government agencies, non-profit
organizations and even private companies. They provide measurements for evaluating the health of our economy,
the latest business cycles and how consumers are spending and generally faring. Various economic indicators are
released daily, weekly, monthly and/or quarterly.
While it is important to keep a pulse on the economy, few analysts or economists wade through all of these massive
volumes of data.
Which reports are worth it—and why?
Here's a primer on 10 of the most common and vital economic indicators. Even if you don't follow these reports
yourself, it is helpful to know where the "experts" are drawing their opinions from. If you do peruse these reports,
remember that data can change rapidly, and that broad trends are not judged by one isolated economic data point.
1. Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
The Federal Reserve uses data such as the real GDP and other related economic indicators to adjust its monetary
policy.
The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the data quarterly, including any
revisions, within the last week to 10 days of each month following the end of the quarter. Data are spelled out as
being "advance estimates," "preliminary estimates," and "final" numbers. Each data release includes an
explanation of why the GDP increased or decreased from the previous quarter (quarterly data are also annualized).
What is it? The real GDP is the market value of all goods and services produced in a nation during a specific time
period. Real GDP measures a society's wealth by indicating how fast profits may grow and the expected return on
capital. It is labeled "real" because each year's data is adjusted to account for changes in year-to-year prices. The
real GDP is a comprehensive way to gauge the health and well-being of an economy.

2. M2 (Money Supply)
It does not include institutional money fund assets, large denominated (more than $100,000) time deposits, or any
special reserves banks are required to maintain.
The Federal Reserve uses this data to assess current economic and financial conditions, and to help alter its
monetary policy, which includes raising and lowering interest rates. The Fed's actions are aimed at bolstering or
reducing the money supply.
Economists and others also use M2 data to predict cyclical economic recessions and recoveries and expected
changes in stock prices—not to mention expected changes in the Fed's monetary policy.
Some economists believe that M2's relevancy has waned over the past 20 years. For many years this monetary
measurement had closely paralleled the growth or contraction of the U.S. economy and overall changes in prices.
But over the past two decades, a bevy of changes—such as the introduction of new depository products, the
movement of consumer funds from bank deposits to investment accounts and the internationalization of the
economy—has caused the money supply data to fall out of sync with other economic indicators.
Nevertheless, the Fed and some economists and analysts pay attention to the longer-term trends in growth or
reduction of the money supply, particularly the six-month figures. And the Fed retains its power to increase the
money supply by lowering interest rates as a way to counter a sluggish economy, and to reduce the money supply
by raising interest rates if the economy gets overheated.
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System releases the data both weekly (on Thursdays) and
monthly, during either the second or third week of the month. Monthly data goes back to January 1959; weekly
information has been available since January 1975.
Where to find online: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6
What is it? M2 money supply represents the aggregate total of all money a country has in circulation. It takes into
account all physical currency such as bills and coins; demand deposit savings and checking accounts; traveler's

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checks; assets in retail money market accounts and small money market mutual funds, (i.e., less than $100,000);
individual time deposits and savings deposits, such as certificates of deposits; in addition to some repurchase
agreements and Eurodollar holdings.

3. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI does not include every item an individual may buy, but instead takes a sampling of several hundred goods
and services across 200 item categories. Data is collected through phone calls and personal visits in 87 urban
areas across the country.
The CPI does not include income, Social Security taxes, or investments in stocks, bonds or life insurance. But it
does include all sales taxes associated with the purchases of those goods and services.
Why is it important?
This statistic is the best indicator of inflation that we have to rely on. It is particularly closely scrutinized by
financial economists now since it shows inflation to be at a 16-year low. Changes in inflation can spur the Fed to
take action to change its monetary policy.
Where does the data come from?
The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the national CPI-an average of all areas
sampled, monthly, during the second or third week after the end of the measured month. CPIs for three specific
metropolitan areas are also published monthly, while CPIs for other specific metropolitan regions are published
every other month. Data releases include details about very specific products.
Where to find online: www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm
What is it? The CPI measures changes in the prices paid for goods and services by urban consumers for the
specified month. The CPI is essentially a measure of individuals' cost of living changes and provides a gauge of
the inflation rate related to purchasing those goods and services.

4. Producer Price Index (PPI)

The PPI tracks price changes in virtually all goods-producing sectors, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries,
mining and manufacturing. The PPI also tracks price changes for a growing portion of the non-goods-producing
sectors of the economy as new PPIs are introduced. Prices from 25,000 establishments are tracked monthly.
This report measures prices for goods at three stages of production: finished goods, intermediate goods and crude
goods.
This was called the Wholesale Price Index from 1902 until 1978.
Why is it important? This index is timely because it is the first inflation measure available in the month. In addition,
by watching crude prices, which are first in the chain of production trends, one can sometimes spot inflation in the
pipeline, before it shows up in the CPI.
Where does the data come from? The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the data
monthly, during the second full week of the month following the reporting month.
Where to find online: www.bls.gov/ppi/home.htm
What is it? The PPI is a group of indexes that measures the changes in the selling price of goods and services
received by U.S. producers over a period of time. Think of it as the business-side equivalent to the CPI that
measures changes in prices paid by consumers: The PPI captures price movements at the wholesale level, before
price changes have bubbled up to the retail level.

5. Consumer Confidence Survey

Five questions are asked of a random sampling of 5,000 individuals, of whom about 3,500 respond. The survey
asks their thoughts and feelings about business conditions, the labor market, consumer spending and economic
growth, and their financial and employment expectations six months into the future. Each question can be assigned
three opinions: positive, negative and neutral.

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Why is it important? This statistic is a leading indicator of consumer spending-consumers are more inclined to
spend money when they are feeling confident about their financial and employment prospects.
Where does the data come from? The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center releases the data monthly
on the last Tuesday of each month.
Where to find online: http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
What is it? A gauge of the public's confidence about the health of the U.S. economy that reflects the public's
optimism/pessimism and the nation's mood.

6. Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Employment data is based on a survey of 300,000 establishments across 600 industries, which account for
approximately one-third of all payroll employees. Industries include retail trade, manufacturing and construction.
CES provides details on numbers of hours worked and earnings of all surveyed across the nation.
The "employed" are defined as all full- and part-time workers and temporary and intermittent employees who
received pay for the cited period. It includes those on paid vacation or sick leave, and excludes business
proprietors, self-employed, unpaid family members and volunteers.
Why is it important? This is the earliest indicator of economic trends released each month. Employment rates
indicate the well-being of the economy and labor force. Changes in wages point to earnings trends and related
labor costs. Economists focus on the monthly change in total non-farm payrolls and in which sectors jobs were
gained or lost.
Interesting trends can also be derived from the payroll data, such as the average number of hours per week worked
and the average hourly earnings. This data gives an indication of how tight the labor market is—tight labor markets
can translate into wage inflation.
Where does the data come from? The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the data
monthly, usually on the first Friday following the reference month, but always within the first 10 days after month-
end.
Where to find online: www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm
What is it? CES provides comprehensive data on national employment, unemployment and wages and earnings
data across all non-agriculture industries, including all civilian government workers. Information is disseminated in
many different ways-for example, employment/unemployment rates among men and women, varied ethnic groups
and teens.

7. Retail Trade Sales and Food Services Sales

The data is based on a random sampling of 5,000 retail and food service firms. Figures are broken out to both
include and exclude sales of automobiles. Sales are weighted and benchmarked to represent the nation's three
million retail and food services firms.
Why is it important? The numbers measure consumers' personal consumption across retail industries and track
growth or deceleration of personal consumption spending, which makes up approximately two-thirds of the annual
U.S. GDP. Analysts use the data to help track consumer spending trends and forecast the direction and magnitude
of future spending. Automobile sales are separated from the data because of their volatility, which can sometimes
obscure the underlying pattern of spending.
Where does it come from? The U.S. Department of Commerce's U.S. Census Bureau releases the data monthly,
during the second week of each month.
Where to find online: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
What is it? This data tracks monthly U.S. retail and food service sales, details changes from previous periods, and
identifies in which sectors sales increased and/or decreased.

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8. Housing Starts (Formally Known as "New Residential Construction")
Why is it important? Housing starts are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, which are affected by
changes in interest rates. Although this indicator is highly volatile, it represents about 4% of annual GDP, and can
signal changes in the economy and the effects of current financial conditions. Analysts and economists know to
watch for longer-term trends in housing starts.
Where does the data come from? The U.S. Department of Commerce's U.S. Census Bureau releases the data
monthly, within two to three weeks after the end of the reporting month.
Where to find online: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html
What is it? An approximation of the number of housing units on which some construction was performed during
the month. Data is provided for single-family homes and multiple unit buildings. The data indicates how many
homes were issued building permits, how many housing construction projects were initiated and how many home
construction projects were completed.

9. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales

Why is it important? This data set is the primary source of information on the state of business inventories and
business sales. Inventory rates often provide clues about the growth or contraction of the economy. A growth in
business inventories may mean sales are slow and the economy's rate of growth is also slowing. If sales are
slowing, businesses may be forced to cut production of goods, and that can eventually translate into inventory
reductions.
Where does the data come from? The U.S. Department of Commerce's U.S. Census Bureau releases the data
monthly, approximately six weeks after the end of the subject month.
Where to find online: https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
What is it? This data represents the combined value of trade sales and shipments by manufacturers in a specific
month, as well as the combined values of inventories in the wholesale and retail business sectors and
manufacturing. The current and most recent past month's inventory/sales ratios are also provided. Information is
provided across 17,000 manufacturing, retail and wholesale companies within 160 industries.

10. S&P 500 Stock Index (the S&P 500)

What is it? The Standard & Poor's 500 is a market-value-weighted index of 500 publicly owned stocks that are
combined into one equity basket. This basket of stocks has become the industry standard and benchmark for the
overall performance of the U.S. equity markets.
The S&P Index Committee chooses the indexed stocks based upon market size, liquidity and industry group
representation. Component companies are periodically replaced. Companies are most often removed because of
a merger with another company, financial operating failure or restructuring. Prospective companies are placed in
an index "replacement pool" and vacancies are filled from that pool.
Why is it important? The index is designed to measure changes in the stock prices of component companies. It is
used as a measure of the nation's stock of capital, as well as a gauge of future business and consumer confidence
levels. Growth of the S&P 500 index can translate into growth of business investment. It can also be a clue to
higher future consumer spending. A declining S&P 500 index can signal a tightening of belts for both businesses
and consumers.
Economists tend to look for long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations in the S&P 500 index. The S&P
500's 10-year total return, for example, has become a common indicator of longer-term trends.
Where does the data come from? Standard & Poor's is solely responsible for compilation of the S&P 500 index.
However, real-time information on the index is available daily from financial news organizations and publications,
as well as from Standard & Poor's.
Where to find online: Click here for more information.

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