Toona Sinensis WRA
Toona Sinensis WRA
Toona Sinensis WRA
Version 1
The image on the left is a young Toona sinensis grove in Autumn and was obtained from
http://www.crocus.co.uk. The two images on the right reflect mature and regenerating
Toona sinensis in a natural park setting and were obtained from
http://www.rslandscapedesign2.blogspot.com.
Agency Contact:
Introduction Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) regulates noxious weeds under the authority
of the Plant Protection Act (7 U.S.C. § 7701-7786, 2000) and the Federal Seed Act
(7 U.S.C. § 1581-1610, 1939). A noxious weed is “any plant or plant product that
can directly or indirectly injure or cause damage to crops (including nursery stock
or plant products), livestock, poultry, or other interests of agriculture, irrigation,
navigation, the natural resources of the United States, the public health, or the
environment” (7 U.S.C. § 7701-7786, 2000). We use weed risk assessment (WRA)
—specifically, the PPQ WRA model1—to evaluate the risk potential of plants,
including those newly detected in the United States, those proposed for import, and
those emerging as weeds elsewhere in the world.
Because our WRA model is geographically and climatically neutral, it can be used
to evaluate the baseline invasive/weed potential of any plant species for the entire
United States or any area within it. We use a climate matching tool in our WRAs to
evaluate those areas of the United States that are suitable for the establishment of
the plant. We also use a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the consequences of
uncertainty on the outcome of the risk assessment. For more information on the
PPQ WRA process, please refer to the document, Introduction to the PPQ Weed
Risk Assessment Process, which is available upon request.
1
Koop, A., L. Fowler, L. Newton, and B. Caton. 2012. Development and validation of a weed screening tool for the United
States. Biological Invasions 14(2):273-294. DOI:10.1007/s10530-011-0061-4
some other introduced tree species in California (Grotkopp and Rejmanek, 2007)
and, for the same reason, has been recommended as a good alternative to
Ailanthus altissima in Kansas (Branhagan, n.d.). It has received negative press
about its invasive potential only recently, with some information available
through garden forums and blogs. For example, it is being removed from a vale
in Morris Park (a 147-acre woodland in Philadelphia), where it is reported as
“beginning to spread at an alarming rate” (Soloman and Dijois, 2011), and is
described as “an easy, potentially invasive, suckering plant” by the author Ken
Druse (2011).
WRA area: Entire United States, including territories
Impact Potential We found no specific evidence that T. sinensis is impacting natural, production, or
anthropogenic systems, but it could become a pest in natural and urban areas. Due
to its spreading behavior in a natural area within the City of Philadelphia, it is being
eradicated by the Parks and Recreation Department (Soloman and Dijois, 2011).
Root suckers and seedlings in the vicinity of the original trees are proving difficult
to manage (Brennan, 2011). In South Australia, it is “not recommended” as a tree
for natural areas (DECD, 1999). The risk score for this element is relatively low
because of the lack of documented evidence of harm. We had a moderate amount
of uncertainty with this element overall, but a high amount of uncertainty with
impact potential in natural areas.
Risk score = 2.0 Uncertainty index = 0.21
Geographic Potential Toona sinensis is widely distributed through southeastern Asia and cultivated in
many parts of the world. It is the most cold-tolerant species within the genus Toona
and can survive winter temperatures down to -20C. While it is cultivated in many
climates, it does not appear to be native or naturalized in any mediterranean
climates or desert/steppe areas. We estimate that about 45 percent of the United
States is suitable for the establishment of T sinensis (Fig. 1). The predicted
distribution is based on the species’ known distribution elsewhere in the world and
includes point-referenced localities and areas of occurrence. The map for T.
sinensis represents the joint distribution of Plant Hardiness Zones 5-13, areas with
over10 inches of annual precipitation, and the following Köppen-Geiger climate
classes: tropical rainforest, tropical savannah, humid subtropical, marine west
coast, humid continental warm summers, and humid continental cool summers.
Entry Potential We did not assess this element because this species is already present in the United
States (Grotkopp and Rejmanek, 2007; Soloman and Dijois, 2011; smgrowers.com,
2011; greergardens.com, 2011; Tasker, 2011; Corley et al., 2007).
Figure 1. Predicted distribution of Toona sinensis in the United States. Map insets
for Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico are not to scale.
Figure 2. Toona sinensis risk score (black box) relative to the risk scores of
species used to develop and validate the WRA model (other symbols). See
Appendix A for the complete assessment.
Figure 3. Monte Carlo simulation results (N=5000) for uncertainty around risk
scoresa for Toona sinensis.
a
The blue “+” symbol represents the medians of the simulated outcomes. The smallest box
contains 50 percent of the outcomes, the second 95 percent, and the largest 99 percent.
3. Discussion
The result of theWRA for T. sinensis is Evaluate Further (Fig. 2; Fig. 3); the
secondary screening gives a result of High Risk. This species has been in the
United States for decades and only recently have people begun to report invasive
behavior. Although it has characteristics in common with many invasive trees
(rapid growth, vegetative reproduction), it has not been aggressive in its introduced
range and does not appear to be comparable to the similar species Ailanthus
altissima, for example. Based on the available evidence, T. sinensis is likely to be a
minor invader (70.4 percent probability) in natural areas and a nuisance in gardens
and landscape plantings, primarily because of its tendency to produce seedlings and
root suckers up to 50 feet from the parent tree.
4. Literature Cited
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Appendix A. Weed risk assessment for Toona sinensis (A. Juss.) M. Roem. (Meliaceae). The following
information was obtained from the species’ risk assessment, which was conducted on a Microsoft Excel
platform. The information shown below was modified to fit on the page. The original Excel file, the full
questions, and the guidance to answer the questions are available upon request.