Scribd
Upload
407 views44 pages

Agent-Based Modelling of Complex Systems

This document provides an overview and introduction to a lecture series on agent-based modeling of complex systems. It outlines the course contact information, structure, readings, assessment criteria, and key topics to be covered including complex systems, emergence, models, agent-based models, why modeling is useful, and important modeling tools like NetLogo. The goal of the course is to introduce students to creating, exploring, analyzing, and validating agent-based models of complex systems.

Uploaded by

Rully Medianto
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
407 views44 pages

Agent-Based Modelling of Complex Systems

This document provides an overview and introduction to a lecture series on agent-based modeling of complex systems. It outlines the course contact information, structure, readings, assessment criteria, and key topics to be covered including complex systems, emergence, models, agent-based models, why modeling is useful, and important modeling tools like NetLogo. The goal of the course is to introduce students to creating, exploring, analyzing, and validating agent-based models of complex systems.

Uploaded by

Rully Medianto
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 44

Agent-based modelling of complex

systems

Janusz Szwabiński

Lecture #1: Introduction


Contact data

● janusz.szwabinski@pwr.edu.pl
● office hours (C-11 building, room 5.16):
● Monday, 11.00-13.00

● Friday, 9.00-11.00

● preferably make an appointment via email,

providing details of your problem


● http://prac.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~szwabin/
Course overview

1. Introduction to agent-based modelling


2. Creating simple models
3. Exploring and extending models
4. Components of agent-based models
5. Analyzing agent-based simulations
6. Verification and validation of models
7. Computational roots of agent-based modelling
8. Examples of interesting models
Reading

1. U. Wilensky, W. Rand, „An Introduction to Agent-


Based Modeling”
2. S. F. Railsback, V. Grimm, „Agent-Based and
Individual-Based Modeling: A Practical Introduction”
3. R. Siegfried, „Modeling and Simulation of Complex
Systems: A Framework for Efficient Agent-Based
Modeling and Simulation”
Assessment

● each assignment in the lab will be graded on a 100 point basis


● submissions that do not run will receive at most 20% of the

points
● in case of not meeting the deadline for the assignment, the

score will by reduced by 25% for each day of the delay

Average score Grade


X < 65 2.0
65 ≤ X < 70 3.0
70 ≤ X < 75 3.5
75 ≤ X < 85 4.0
85 ≤ X < 95 4.5
95 ≤ X ≤ 100 5.0
Assessment

● two quizzes in the lectures: midterm and final


● closed-book

● one DIN A4 page of handwritten notes allowed

● final score according to the formula:


Outlook

● Definition of complex systems


● Notion of emergence
● Agent-based models
● Why model?
● Useful tools
Complex systems

● a system composed of many components which may interact with


each other:
● Earth’s global climate

● human brain

● ecosystems

● universe

● their behavior intrinsically difficult to model due to dependencies,


relationships or interactions between their parts
● typical properties: nonlinearity, emergence, self-organization,
adaptation, feedback loops
● usually whole is more than a sum of parts
Complex systems
Complex systems
Complex systems
Emergence

●a macro-level phenomenon
as a result of local-level interactions
● examples:

● life

● path formation (desire paths)

● traffic jams

● flocking behavior

● mexican waves, standing ovation


Emergence
Emergence
Emergence
Emergence
Emergence
Emergence
Emergence
Models

● simplifications of reality
● many kinds: formal mathematical ones, stories,

cartoons etc
● focus on the main characteristics of a problem

● different modelling approaches

● each approach involves its own set of theories,

concepts, mathematical techniques and accepted


procedures for constructing and testing models
Models: reductionistic vs integrated
models

● reductionistic Newtonian approach:


● deterministic

● a system (like the solar system) can be described as a

machine
● we can predict its development if we understand all the

mechanisms
● its relative simplicity had a great appeal to scientists

● integrated models:
● no predictability of the full trajectory of the system

● the system adjusts constantly to changing context (like a

flock of birds)
● related to changes in our perception of the world

(thermodynamics, quantum mechanics, evolution)


● very often irreversible, stochastic and out-of-equilibrium
Models: deductive vs inductive
reasoning

● inductive reasoning – a process where the starting point is the


observation of a phenomenon

Observation → pattern → tentative hypothesis → theory

● many social and life scientists use this approach


● useful if one does not know what to look for

● deductive reasoning – an approach that follows the opposite


direction

Theory → hypothesis → observation → confirmation


Models: deductive vs inductive
reasoning

● equally valid methods of deriving knowledge


● one often needs both methods to understand complex
processes
● inductive approach from the modelling perspective:
● data set from a case study as starting point

● statistics from the data set

● model that may fit the data → first step towards a theory

● deductive approach from the modelling perspective:


● start with an abstract model using rules based on existing

knowledge
● what kind of patterns will evolve within the model evolution?

● test or adjust existing theories based on the results


Agent-based models
● a class of computational models for simulating the
actions and interactions of autonomous agents (both
individual or collective entities)
● combine elements of game theory, complex systems,
emergence, computational sociology, multi-agent
systems, and evolutionary programming
● Monte Carlo methods are used to introduce randomness
● often used on non-computing related scientific domains including biology,
ecology and social science
● used to search for explanatory insight into the collective behavior of agents
obeying simple rules
● a kind of microscale model
● attempt to re-create and predict the appearance of complex phenomena
● K.I.S.S. ("Keep it simple, stupid") principle
Agent-based models
● typical elements:
● numerous agents specified at various scales

● decision-making heuristics

● learning rules or adaptive processes

● an interaction topology

● an environment

● usually implemented as computer simulations, either as custom software, or


via ABM toolkits
● these simulations are used to test how changes in individual behaviors will
affect the system's emerging overall behavior
Why model?

● Predict ● Offer crisis options in near-real time


● Explain ● Demonstrate tradeoffs/suggest
efficiencies
● Guide data collection
● Challenge the robustness of prevailing
● Illuminate core dynamics theory through perturbations
● Suggest dynamical analogies ● Expose prevailing wisdom as
● Discover new questions incompatible with available data
● Promote a scientific habit of mind ● Train practitioners
● Bound outcomes to plausible ranges ● Discipline the policy dialogue
● Illuminate core uncertainties ● Educate the general public
● Reveal the apparently simple to be
complex and vice versa

Further reading: J. M. Epstein, „Why Model?”, JASSS vol. 11, no. 4 12,
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/11/4/12.html
Predict

● prediction often presumed to be the goal of


modelling
● it might be a goal, particularly if one admits

statistical prediction in which stationary distributions


(of epidemic sizes for instance) are the regularities of
interest
Explanation

● it does not imply prediction!:


● plate tectonics

● electrostatics

● evolution

● plausible behavioral rules → macroscopic explananda


(large scale regularities)
Guided data collection

● collecting a lot of data and then running regressions on it


is not the only approach to science
● theory often precedes data collection (e.g. Maxwell’s
electromagnetic theory, general relativity)
● without models it is not always clear what data to collect
Core dynamics

● even the best models are wrong in an engineering sense


● some of them are fruitfully wrong
● they illuminate abstractions (Lotka-Volterra ecosystem

model, SIR model, Hooke’s Law)


● they capture qualitative behaviors of overarching

interest (e.g. predator-prey cycles, epidemic threshold)


Analogies

● a huge variety of seemingly unrelated processes have


formally identical models (e.g. Coulomb’s Law and
gravitational attraction)
● applying a powerful pre-existing theory (model) to an
unexplored field may lead to rapid advances
New questions

● new questions produce huge advances


● models can help us to discover them
Tools
● Python (with Numpy/Scipy, Networkx and many others
modules) as the course programming language
● Matlab and GNU Octave are reasonable high-level
alternatives
● Netlogo, Repast, MASON
● Mesa
● PyCX
● for more advanced models you may resort to compiled
programming languages as C/C++ or Fortran
Netlogo

● https://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/
● a multi-agent programmable modeling environment
● open source and freely available
● authored by Uri Wilensky and developed at
Northwestern's Center for Connected Learning and
Computer-Based Modeling
● designed in the spirit of the Logo programming language,
to be "low threshold and no ceiling" → easy to pick up
● designed for multiple audiences in mind, in particular:
● teaching children in the education community

● for domain experts without a programming background


Netlogo
● its environment enables exploration of emergent
phenomena (supported by the GUI)
● an extensive models library (a variety of domains, such as
economics, biology, physics, chemistry, psychology,
system dynamics)
● it allows authoring of new models and modification of
existing ones
● used in a wide variety of educational contexts: from
elementary school to graduate one
● used by researchers worldwide
● an online version available at
https://www.netlogoweb.org/
Netlogo
Mesa

● http://mesa.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tutorials/intro_tutoria
l.html
● agent-based modeling framework in Python
● it allows:
● to quickly create agent-based models using built-in core

components (such as spatial grids and agent schedulers)


or customized implementations
● to visualize models using a browser-based interface

● to analyze the results using Python’s data analysis tools

● Python 3-based counterpart to NetLogo, Repast, or


MASON
Mesa
PyCX
● http://pycx.sourceforge.net/
● an online repository of simple Python sample codes for
dynamic complex systems simulations:
● iterative maps

● cellular automata

● dynamical networks

● agent-based models

● runs on plain Python


● philosophy:
● simplicity

● readability

● generalizability

● pedagogical values
PyCX
● coding style:
● one simulation model, one .py file

●  same three-part structure for all dynamic simulations

→ initialization, visualization, updating


● no object-oriented programming

● frequent use of global variables

● first steps (provided Python is already installed):


● download a PyCX sample code of your interest

● run it

● read it

● change it as you like!!!


PyCX
Case study: forest fire model
Case study: forest fire model
● early versions go back to Henley (1989) and Drossel and
Schwabl (1992)
● defined as a cellular automaton on a grid with Ld cells (L –
sidelength of the grid, d – dimension of the grid)
● a cell can be:
● empty

● occupied by a tree

● burning

● in the simplest version 2 rules executed simultaneously:


1. A burning cell turns into an empty cell
2. A tree will burn if at least one neighbor is burning
Case study: forest fire model

Demos

You might also like