Calculating Yaw of Repose Spin Drift FULL

Calculating Yaw of Repose and Spin Drift
-A novel and practical approach for computing the Spin Drift perturbation-
James A. Boatright & Gustavo F. Ruiz
 Introduction
 Framework of the Analytical Solution
 The Horizontal Tangent Angle
 PRODAS Simulated Flight Data
 Yaw of Repose
 Estimating the Yaw of Repose
 Analysis of the Spin Drift
 Analytic Calculation of the Spin Drift at the Target
 Estimating the Ratio of Second Moments of Inertia for Rifle Bullets
 Estimating the Spin Drift Scale Factor ScF
 Calculating the Spin Drift at the Target
 Example Calculations of ly/lx
 Example Calculations of Spin Drift
 Sensitivity analysis & Model comparisons
 Closing summary
Introduction
The Yaw of Repose angle βR is a very small, but gradually increasing, horizontally
rightward, aircraft-type yaw-attitude bias or “side-slip” angle of the coning axis of a right-
hand spinning bullet. The Yaw of Repose reverses sign and angles leftward for a left-hand
spinning bullet.
We discuss only right-hand spinning bullets here for clarity. It can be shown that for right-
hand twist, the yaw of repose lies to the right of the trajectory. Thus the bullet cones
around with an average attitude offset to the right, leading to increasing side drift to the
right.
For spin-stabilized bullets, this attitude angle creates the well known Spin Drift. The small
horizontally rightward Yaw of Repose angle causes a small rightward aerodynamic lift
force which, in turn, causes a slowly increasing horizontal velocity of the bullet.
It is important to realize that this effect occurs independently of the presence of surface
wind of any force or from any direction. Bear in mind that the Yaw of Repose represents
1 / 48 Calculating Yaw of Repose and Spin Drift for Firing Point Conditions – Boatright & Ruiz – rev.
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the horizontal yaw attitude of the bullet’s coning axis or the average yaw of the coning
bullet.
The acceleration of gravity acting upon the flat-fired bullet in free flight is the original cause
of this small yaw-attitude bias angle. The downward curving of the trajectory due to gravity
causes the airstream passing over the bullet to approach from below the nose of that bullet.
FIGURE: Extreme TDC and BDC Positions of Coning Bullet
This wind shift during each coning cycle causes an increased aerodynamic angle of attack
which peaks when the center of gravity (CG) of the bullet is at the Bottom Dead Center
(BDC) position in each coning cycle where its nose is oriented maximally upward.
Since the coning angle always exceeds this small change in the approaching airstream
direction during each coning cycle, the aerodynamic angle of attack for a bullet at Top Dead
Center (TDC) when the bullet’s nose is pointing maximally downward is at a minimum for
that coning cycle.
These modulations of aerodynamic angle of attack during each coning cycle produce small
differential rightward-acting increments in the aerodynamic overturning moment
experienced by the bullet which are centered upon the BDC and TDC positions of the bullet
during each coning cycle.
In physics these are termed “torque impulses,” and each one pushes the angular
momentum vector of the right-hand spinning bullet horizontally rightward without
affecting its spin-rate.
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Both, the overturning moment vector M and its differential torque impulse vector ΔM point
rightward for the bullet at its BDC location. While the vector M itself points leftward at TDC,
its negative differential torque vector ΔM is positive rightward as well at TDC.
The 175.16-grain M118LR 30-caliber bullet used as an example here is experiencing its
88th coning half-cycle when it reaches the target distance of 1,000 yards. The reinforcing
cumulative effect of these rightward torque impulses occurring twice per coning cycle is
the mechanism by which gravity causes the slowly increasing rightward Yaw of Repose
attitude bias of the flying bullet.
The epicyclic motion of the spin-axis direction of a typical right-hand spinning rifle bullet is
shown below for the first hundred yards, or so, of its flight. The gyroscopic stability Sg of
this bullet at launch is about 1.33
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General form of the Yaw of Repose, as described by BRL.
I d
x
d CM d
aw of epose ector
CM erodynamic erturning Moment Coef icient
I xial Moment of Inertia
ullet pin ate
ir Density
d ullet Diameter
elocity with respect of ind

If the 3-dimensional mean trajectory of a rifle bullet in nearly horizontal flat firing is
projected down onto a horizontal plane, the rightward deviation βT of its tangent direction
from the firing azimuth essentially defines this Yaw of Repose angle βR throughout the
flight, except for an even smaller horizontal tracking error εH as the trajectory curves to the
right following (but lagging behind) the slightly larger Yaw of Repose angle βR:
βR βT + εH (1)
We will formulate a good approximation for βT as an aid in formulating βR accurately. The
horizontal tracking error angle εH is inherently non-negative (εH≥0) for right-hand
spinning bullets.
The Yaw of Repose has two effects on the trajectory of the projectile: 1) it produces a
lateral lift-force that results in a the projectile drifting rightward (for a right-hand spinning
projectile); and 2) it increases the total drag due to a small additional yaw drag component.
The additional lift is of a very small magnitude, and the accompanying additional yaw drag
component is an even smaller second-order term; thus, it is omitted. Any aerodynamic lift
is always accompanied by some increase in aerodynamic drag.
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Framework of the Analytical Solution
The horizontal spin-drift SD which we observe in long-range shooting is due to a

horizontally acting aerodynamic lift force attributable to the increasing Yaw of Repose
attitude angle βR of the coning rifle bullet.
We will use the principles of linear aeroballistics in formulating the Yaw of Repose and its
resulting Spin-Drift.
Detailed analyses of PRODAS 6-DoF simulation runs show that in flat firing the magnitude
of the spin-drift SD in any given simulated firing is, beyond the first 150 yards or so, nearly
equal to some invariant scale factor ScF of about 1.2 to 2.4 percent, more or less, times the
bullet’s drop from the projected bore axis:
SD(t) = -ScF*DROP(t) (2)
In other words, the horizontal spin-drift trajectory looks just like a small fraction ScF of the
vertical trajectory rotated 90 degrees about the extended axis of the bore with both
curvatures ultimately caused by the same gravitational effect. The ratio of drift to drop
rapidly approaches ScF as a limit beyond the first 150 yards of the bullet’s flight.
We must formulate the scale factor ScF so that it can be accurately evaluated for any given
bullet type and firing conditions.
Then using Eq. 2, we need only an accurate determination of the bullet’s drop from the bore
axis at the target distance to calculate an accurate spin-drift at any long-range target.
Existing 3-DoF “point mass” trajectory programs specialize in the accurate calculation of
this bullet drop at the target distance in any firing conditions.
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The Horizontal Tangent Angle
The instantaneous tangent to the horizontal-plane projection of the mean trajectory forms
the angle βT(t) to an X-axis in that horizontal plane which defines the launch azimuth of the
fired bullet. The mean trajectory of the bullet is the 3-dimensional path which would be
followed by the CG of the bullet if it were not coning about that mean trajectory.
This horizontal tangent angle βT(t) is always defined by the horizontal projection of the
bullet’s mean elocity ector, but these mean elocity components are not calculated in our
a ailable P D reports. The bullet’s instantaneous cross-track velocity components are
modulated by the helical coning motion of the CG of the bullet in flight.
Another important use for this horizontal tangent angle function βT(t) in ballistics is in
plotting the horizontal yaw-attitude of the spin-axis of the bullet in the “wind axes” pitch-
versus-yaw plots long used by ballisticians.
Just as the pitch coordinate data for the bullet’s spin-axis direction is corrected by
subtracting out the total change since launch ΔΦTotal(t) = Φ(t) - Φ(0) in the vertical-plane
flight path angle Φ before plotting the pitch data for a simulated flight, the total change
since launch in the mean trajectory’s horizontal yaw-angle βT(t) should also be subtracted
out before plotting of the bullet’s yaw attitude data in the interest of logical consistency.
In this way, the origin of the wind axes plots could truly be defined (horizontally as well as
vertically) as the instantaneous +V direction of the bullet’s mean trajectory. The horizontal
tracking error angle εH(t) would remain in the plotted yaw attitude values instead of the
entire yaw-of-repose angle βR(t).
Because the Scale Factor ScF in Eq. 2 is essentially invariant over time t and distance X(t) at
long ranges, we can e aluate the trajectory’s horizontal-plane tangent angle βT(t) directly
from the bullet’s ertical-plane DROP data in suitable distance units at any time t during its
flight:
βT(t) = dSD/dX = - cF*[d(D P)/dt]/ (t) ≈ - cF*[Φ(t) – Φ(0)] (3)
where (t) ≈ dX/dt in flat firing.
If the scale factor ScF is known, this expression allows calculation of the bullet’s horizontal
tangent angle from either the ratio of its vertical drop rate to its forward velocity at any
point during its flight or from the total change in the vertical-plane flight path angle Φ since
launch.
The “epicyclic swer e” modulation of the bullet’s DROP(t) data rapidly fades to an
insignificant fraction of the bullet’s total DROP distance from the axis of the bore as the
flight progresses.
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The differential DROP-rate and remaining velocity V(t) are readily found from any
simulated flight data. Calculation of the invariant Scale Factor ScF for any particular flight
trajectory is discussed later in this paper.
Alternatively, one could evaluate βT(t) directly in the horizontal plane. As the bullet drifts
horizontally due solely to spin-drift SD(t), the intersection point of the tangent to the
bullet’s mean trajectory in the horizontal plane with the X-axis moves forward in the +X
direction, but at a slower velocity than the forward velocity of the bullet itself.
If we assume a continually increasing curvature of the horizontal trajectory so that this
velocity ratio varies exponentially with range X(t), we can estimate βT, the dominant
portion of βR, as:
βT ≈ T N(βT) = SD(t)/{X(t)*0.825*exp[-0.925*X(t)/X(max)]} (4)
This hand-fitted estimator function agrees quite well with βT(t) angular values extracted
from available trajectories generated by PRODAS 6-DoF simulations for our particular long-
range bullet by ratioing an extracted VR(t) to V(t) for each millisecond of the PRODAS
trajectory reports.
The horizontally rightward velocity component data VR(t) is extracted by applying a
smoothing difference operator to the P D “no wind, no Coriolis” drift data converted
into linear distance units.
Comparing the two functions for each millisecond over the 1.6923-second simulated flight
time to 1,000 yards yields a mean difference of 1.12 micro-radians with a population
standard deviation of 0.0514 milliradians.
Extraction of the small rightward horizontal velocity VR from the trajectory drift data is
complicated by the superimposed epicyclic swerving of the CG of the bullet which accounts
for most or the variance between these two functions.
The two approaches in Eq. 3 and Eq. 4 for evaluating βT(t) agree reasonably closely for
PRODAS data as the epicyclic swerve modulations in SD(t) and DROP(t) fade in significance
with ongoing flight time t.
We need to formulate these approximations for βT(t) so that it can be used as a
reasonableness check on calculations of βR(t) which is not itself reported by PRODAS.
We will eventually need an accurate formulation for βR(t) in order to calculate the Scale
Factor ScF and thence the spin-drift SD(t) for other rifle bullet trajectories without relying
upon 6-DoF simulation data.
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PRODAS Simulated Flight Data
In this paper we will use as our example bullet the U rmy’s 30-caliber 175.16-grain
“M11 L ” bullet as loaded in their M118LR Special Ball (7.62x51 mm NATO) long-range
sniper and match ammunition.
We do this because we have several PRODAS 6-DoF simulation runs on hand from 2011 for
this 7.62 mm NATO ammunition, reporting the linear ballistic results (including spin-drift)
for each millisecond of its 1.6923-second total simulated flight time to 1000 yards.
The bullet weight actually used in these PRODAS runs is 175.16 grains. The simulated firing
conditions are 1) flat firing, 2) standard sea-level ICAO atmosphere, 3) no wind, 4) no
Coliolis effect calculated, 5) muzzle velocity of 2600.07 feet per second, and 6) barrel twist
is right-handed at 11.5 inches per turn.
The “no-wind” and “no-Coliolis” conditions assure that the rightward spin-drift SD is the
only secular horizontal “bullet drift” being computed by P D .
However, the PRODAS reported drift and drop data necessarily includes the oscillating
horizontal component of the bullet’s helical coning motion about its mean trajectory
throughout its simulated flight. We also have PRODAS runs available for this same bullet
fired through constant left and right 10 MPH crosswinds as well as left-hand twist runs in
each of the three constant wind conditions.
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Yaw of Repose
We will show that in flat firing the continual downward arc of the flight path angle Φ due to
gravity causes repeated rightward differential aerodynamic torque impulses ΔM centered
about the extreme top-dead-center (TDC) and bottom-dead-center (BDC) positions of the
CG of the bullet in its coning motion.
These double-rate yaw attitude-changing horizontal torque impulses cause the forward-
pointing angular momentum vector L of the right-hand spinning bullet to shift horizontally
evermore rightward during its flight. In light of Coning Theory, we should more precisely
say the bullet’s coning axis drifts horizontally rightward in its yaw attitude throughout the
flight.
Ballisticians term this accumulating yaw-attitude bias the “Yaw of Repose” angle βR of the
flying bullet and classically formulate it from calculus as [Eq.10.83 in McCoy’s ME ]:
βR = P*G/M (5)
This expression is the particular solution for the differential Equations of Motion
determining each trajectory in terms of the classic aeroballistic auxiliary parameters:
P (Ix/Iy)*p*d/ (ω1 + ω2)*d/V (6)
G g*d*C (Φ)/V2 ≈ g*d/ 2 (7)
M = (m*d2/Iy)*[ρ* *d/(2*m)]*CMα (ω1 + ω2)*ω2*d2/V2 (8)
after converting each classic auxiliary parameter from dimensionless arc-length-rates into
the time-rate units used in our analyses of flat-firing a spin-stabilized rifle bullet.
The change-of-variables in Eq. 6 uses one of the gyroscopic relationships from Tri-Cyclic
Theory [Dr. John D. Nicolaides, 1953] that:
(Ix/Iy)*p = (Ix/Iy)*ω ω1 + ω2 (9)
McCoy defines the canonical spin-rate p of the bullet as used here to be a circular frequency
gi en in radians per second. The bullet’s spin-rate p is sometimes given elsewhere in
aeroballistics in units of revolutions per second (or hertz), or is sometimes given in radians
per foot of bullet travel, or even in radians per caliber d of bullet travel.
To avoid this confusion we use the more conventional symbol ω here for the circular
frequency of the spin-rate of the bullet given in radians per second. We also use the symbol
f for frequencies in hertz.
The change of variables in Eq. 8 uses the fundamental magnitude relationship from Coning
Theory that:
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(ρ* * 2/2)*d*CMα L*ω2 (Ix*ω)*ω2 (10)
as well as the Tri-Cyclic relation in Eq. 9 again. Note that this Coning Theory relationship
implies that the slow-mode coning rate ω2 in radians per second is always given by
(M/P)*V/d in terms of the dimensionless aeroballistic auxiliary parameters M and P.
With these changes of variables, the classic formulation for the Yaw of Repose angle βR
reduces to:
βR g/[ω2(t)* (t)] g/[2π*f2(t)*V(t)] (11)
While this formulation for βR is classic, it does not inherently yield zero at t = 0, and it is
about a factor of π too small at long ranges when compared to βT as formulated above [Eq.
1 and Eq. 3]. The magnitude of βR must always exceed that of βT.
Let us say the flight path angle Φ of the bullet’s trajectory changes downward by a small
decrement ΔΦ due solely to the pull of gravity during one-half of the period T2 of a
particular coning cycle. As a continuous variable in flight time t, this angular decrement
ΔΦ(t) 0.0 at t = 0 by definition.
In flat firing, the small decrement ΔΦ in the nearly horizontal flight path angle Φ(t) during
the time interval T2/2 of a particular half-coning cycle can be expressed as:
ΔΦ(t) ≈ T N(ΔΦ) -(g*T2)/[2*V(t)] = -g/[2*f2(t)*V(t)] = -π*g/[ω2(t)*V(t)] (12)
where f2(t) is the instantaneous coning rate, or gyroscopic precession rate, of the bullet
given in revolutions per second, or hertz. [Here we are ignoring the significant cross-bore-
axis (upward) component of the real bullet’s ballistic drag force FD in interest of
formulating a simple SD estimator. This oversimplification will be explained later.]
Comparing our version of the classic formulation for the steady-state Yaw of Repose βR(t)
in Eq. 11 with the change in flight path angle ΔΦ(t) due solely to gravity per half-coning
cycle above, we note that:
βR(t) = (-1/π)*ΔΦ(t) (13)
Thus our formulation in Eq. 12 above for ΔΦ(t), the change in flight path angle Φ per half-
coning cycle T2/2 due to gravity, which does inherently equal zero at t = 0, actually looks
like a more suitable formulation for βR(t) than does the classic form.
We will now investigate the aerodynamic and gyroscopic causes of βR(t) so that we can
formulate its value at any time t during the flight of any rifle bullet.
At each extreme vertical location, TDC and BDC, the coning bullet experiences a peak rate
of differential change in its aerodynamic overturning moment vector M due to this
differential change ΔΦ in its vertical-direction (upward airflow) aerodynamic angle-of-
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attack. Each of these two differential torque impulse vectors ΔM points horizontally
rightward as seen from behind the right-hand spinning bullet.
Here these two differential torque impulse vectors ΔM are to be evaluated by integrating
the differential torque over each (upper or lower) half of the coning period T2, giving them
units of torque multiplied by time which correspond with the units of angular momentum.
Owing to the increased aerodynamic angle-of-attack of the apparent wind experienced by
the bullet at its BDC position, the differential torque impulse ΔM at BDC is inherently
positive rightward (as seen from behind), temporarily increasing the overturning moment
M acting upon the bullet at this BDC location in its coning motion.
While the overturning moment vector M itself points leftward at the TDC position of the
bullet, the differential torque impulse vector ΔM is inherently negative due to the reduced
aerodynamic angle-of-attack experienced by the coning bullet at that upper location, and so
the differential torque impulse vector ΔM itself points positive rightward, once again, at
TDC.
Thus, the alternating sequences of TDC and BDC differential torque impulses are mutually
reinforcing throughout the bullet’s flight.
Recall that in Coning Theory the spin-axis of the bullet is pointing maximally upward when
the CG of the bullet is at its BDC position in any coning cycle; i.e., its pitch attitude is a
relative maximum during that coning cycle.
As formulated in linear aeroballistics, the instantaneous magnitude {M} of the overturning
moment M at time t is:
{M} q* *d* in[α(t)]*CMα
Where
q (ρ/2)* 2 = Dynamic Pressure in lbf/square foot.
ρ Density of the atmosphere = 0.0764742 lbm/cubic foot for the standard sea-level ICAO
atmosphere used here. This value of the density ρ must be divided by the acceleration of
gravity g = 32.174 feet per second per second to convert its units into proper density units,
mass (slugs) per cubic foot.
V = Airspeed of the bullet in feet/second.
S = Reference (frontal) area of the bullet at the base of its ogive in square feet (π/4)*d2.
d = Diameter of the bullet in feet.
α(t) Coning angle (and coning angle-of-attack) of the bullet in radians at any time t
during its flight.
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CMα Dimensionless overturning moment coefficient in linear aeroballistics theory.
Here we are ignoring the fast-mode gyroscopic nutation ω1(t) of the bullet’s spin-axis for
several reasons: 1) It does not normally move the CG of the bullet by any measurable
amount, 2) Its aeroballistic effects tend to average out to zero rather rapidly, and 3) It
rapidly damps to insignificance for most rifle bullets after any flight disturbance.
As the flat-firing trajectory of the coning bullet, flying essentially horizontally near the X-
axis (with Φ ≈ 0.0 and with its coning axis aligned into the approaching windstream), arcs
downward due to gravity, the aerodynamic angle-of-attack α(t) increases by the magnitude
of ΔΦ at its BDC location in this coning cycle.
The cosines of the coning angle α(t)<5.7 degrees, the flight path angle Φ, and the small
change in flight path angle ΔΦ all remain essentially equal 1.00. From trigonometry, the
peak magnitude {ΔM}PEAK of this differential overturning torque ΔM with the bullet at its
BDC location can be expressed as:
SIN(α + ΔΦ) = SIN(α)*COS(ΔΦ) + COS(α)*SIN(ΔΦ) ≈ IN(α) + SIN(ΔΦ)
M + {ΔM}PEAK = q*S*d*SIN(α + ΔΦ)*CMα ≈ M + q* *d* IN(ΔΦ)*CMα
{ΔM}PEAK q* *d* IN(ΔΦ)*CMα (14)
This expression can also be well approximated as:
{ΔM}PEAK q* *d*(ΔΦ)*CMα (15)
The instantaneous vertical-direction aerodynamic angle-of-attack is actually the vector
sum of three small angles in complex wind-axes coordinates (ignoring the fast-mode ω1
motion):
1. Vertical (pitch) component of the slow-mode coning angle, α(t)*C (ω2*t + ξ0)
2. Downward change in flight path angle ΔΦ, and
3. Very small vertical-direction tracking error angle εV (upward in wind-axes plots). This
vertical-direction tracking error angle εV is termed the “pitch-of-repose” by McCoy.
The primary overturning moment M is due to (1.) the coning angle-of-attack α(t). This
rotating torque vector M produces the slow-mode circular coning motion of the CG of the
bullet at the coning rate ω2(t) of the bullet as a gyroscopic precession of the bullet’s spin-
axis.
Examination of several different PRODAS runs shows that even for a dynamically stable
bullet with any early coning motion fully damped down, α(t) always exceeds ΔΦ by some
margin all the way to maximum supersonic range and beyond.
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From Coning Theory, the vertical component of the complex coning angle α(t) is the “pitch
angle” φ(t) given by the real part of the complex α(t), again neglecting the fast-mode
motion:
φ(t) Re[α(t)] {α(t)}*C (ω2*t + ξ0) (16)
Whenever {α(t)}>>ΔΦ, only the portion of φ(t) equal in magnitude to ΔΦ produces the
overturning moment impulse ΔM which drives the spin-axis of the bullet rightward giving
rise to the bullet’s Yaw of Repose angle βR, and the overturning moment impulses at BDC
and TDC can be modeled as having the same form.
The excess of φ(t) over ΔΦ goes toward enlarging the coning angle α(t), counteracting any
frictional aerodynamic damping of that slow-mode coning motion of the bullet.
The instantaneous differential overturning moment {ΔM} is then due to the vertical-
direction differential aerodynamic angle-of-attack ΔΦ(t)*COS(ω2*t + ξ0).
This modulation at the coning-rate ω2 looks like a full-wave-rectified sine wave over each
coning cycle. The time-average over each quarter wave is just 2/π times the peak value.
The average value of ΔΦ itself over each half-coning cycle is just ΔΦ/2 because the flight
path angle Φ varies almost linearly over the small interval T2/2. Averaged over the top or
bottom one-half of a coning cycle, the average effective angle-of-attack is then (2/π)*ΔΦ/2
= ΔΦ/π.
The vector sum of (2) ΔΦ and (3) εV varies only gradually with ongoing time-of-flight t. The
magnitudes of these two small angles sum to an average vertical-direction aerodynamic
angle-of-attack which drives the coning-axis direction continually downward according to
Coning Theory, tracking (but lagging behind) the downward-curving trajectory.
The time-integrated torque impulse ΔM centered at TDC or BDC must equal the differential
torque due to the time-average ΔΦ/π of the modulated aerodynamic angle-of-attack
multiplied by the total time interval T2/2 for each half-coning cycle. The interval T2
increases gradually as the coning rate ω2 slows throughout the flight.
The effective differential torque impulse ΔM integrated over a particular half-coning cycle
thus becomes:
ΔM (T2/2)*q* *d*(ΔΦ/π)*CMα (17)
Substituting the unsigned magnitude of the first expression for ΔΦ from Eq. 12 yields:
ΔM (1/π)*g*(T2/2)2 *q* *d*CMα/ (t) (18)
This differential torque impulse ΔM has units of lbf-feet-seconds which can be converted
into slug-feet squared per second, a proper set of units for angular momentum.
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The right-hand spinning bullet alters its pointing direction rightward in gyroscopic
reaction to each of these two differential torque impulses ΔM during each coning cycle.
However, it does so in an unusual way.
When a constant-magnitude, rotating overturning moment vector M is applied to a
spinning gyroscope, its spin-axis direction soon begins moving in precession and nutation
in reaction to that steadily rotating torque vector.
However, the first motion of its spin-axis is always in the direction of the eccentric force
producing the overturning moment M while those epicyclic motions are getting started.
For the spinning bullet, the eccentric force is the total aerodynamic force F acting through
the aerodynamic center-of-pressure CP of the bullet at any instant during its flight. For
spin-stabilized rifle bullets, the CP is nearly always located forward of the CG along the
spin-axis of the bullet.
In response to each small torque impulse ΔM, the spin-axis of our bullet moves initially
rightward, but each impulse ceases well before any vertically upward or downward
movement of the spin-axis can become established.
When the torque impulse vector ΔM is expressed in the same units as the angular
momentum vector L of the spinning bullet, having physical dimensions of mass times
length squared over time, their direct vector sum defines the resulting angular momentum
L of the spinning bullet after the torque impulse has been applied.
For a right-hand spinning bullet the angular momentum vector L points forward along its
spin-axis. Here, since ΔM is always acting perpendicularly to L, the direction of the angular
momentum vector L is shifted rightward by an incremental angular amount (in radians)
which we term ΔβR, but its magnitude remains unchanged.
Of course, the nose of the right-hand spinning rifle bullet in stable supersonic flight always
points essentially in the direction of its angular momentum vector L.
The incremental increase ΔβR in the Yaw of Repose angle βR during each half coning cycle is
thus:
ΔβR ≈ T N(ΔβR) {ΔM}/{L} (1/π)*g*(T2/2)2*q* *d*CMα/[L* (t)] (19)
Recalling Eq. 22 from the Coning Theory paper, we note that the right-hand side of Eq. 19
above contains the fundamental expression from Coning Theory for determining the
magnitude of the circular coning rate ω2(t) for a spin-stabilized bullet coning at non-zero
angles of attack α:
ω2 q* *d*CMα/L (α, L ≠0)
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Due to the acceleration of gravity, the coning angle α(t) cannot be zero in flat firing except
perhaps very briefly at t = 0, where this magnitude relationship still holds true.
After this change of variables,
ΔβR (1/π)*g*(T22)*ω2(t)/[4*V(t)] (20)
This change of variables is critically important in formulating an analytical calculation of βR
because it simultaneously eliminates from the formulation both the overturning moment
coefficient CMα and the angular momentum L of the bullet, each of which is difficult to
calculate for a new bullet.
The coning rate ω2(t) is more readily obtainable from Tri-Cyclic Theory.
Also recall that by definition T22 = 1/(f2)2 4π2/ω22. After this substitution we have:
ΔβR π*g*/[ω2(t)*V(t)] = g/[2*f2(t)*V(t)] = g*T2/[2*V(t)] = -ΔΦ (21)
While this expression is dimensionless, the increment in the Yaw of Repose angle ΔβR for
each half-coning-cycle T2/2 is calculated here in radians. The proper algebraic sign depends
upon coordinate system con entions and the sense of the bullet’s spin-rate.
In Linear Aeroballistics theory, the instantaneous aerodynamic lift-force driving the spin-
drift SD of the bullet horizontally rightward from the X-axis is linearly proportional to the
aerodynamic angle-of-attack for the very small Yaw of Repose angle βR.
Thus, the linear dependence of ΔβR upon ΔΦ shown in Eq. 21 explains the remarkable
similarity in shape of the horizontal-plane and vertical-plane projections of the bullet’s “no
wind, no Coriolis” mean trajectory in 3-space.
When α(t)≳δ≈ΔΦ, as in most “constant wind” 6-DoF simulations, the average torque
impulses ΔM are no longer equal at BDC and TDC. In fact, ΔM( DC)≳ΔM(TDC), and their
combined average effect would be slightly smaller (by about 5 percent) than these
estimates here yielding a maximal Yaw of Repose angle.
The Yaw of Repose angle βR(t) can be found by summing the increments ΔβR divided by
T2/2 for each half coning cycle which has occurred from t = 0 to time t, starting with βR(0)
equal zero.
Using the data from “no wind, no Coriolis” P DAS reports, yields βR(1.430 sec) = 0.67208
milliradians, which exceeds our fitted value of βT(1.430 sec) = 0.61019 mrad by 10.14
percent.
We term this difference, βR(t) – βT(t), the horizontal tracking error angle εH(t). We are
comparing these angles here at t = 1.430 seconds after launch when this M118LR bullet has
January/2017
slowed to Mach 1.20 or 1340 feet per second at 888.5 yards downrange in these simulated
firing conditions.
Using the PRODAS-calculated velocity and coning-rate data, our adjusted version of the
classic formulation of the Yaw of Repose yields βR(1.430 sec) π*P*G/M 0.70633
milliradians, which exceeds our fitted value of βT(1.430 sec) = 0.61019 mrad by 15.76
percent for the horizontal tracking error angle εH.
We believe this adjusted classic formulation for βR better matches the case for a
significantly coning bullet than for this particular minimally coning PRODAS trajectory.
January/2017
Estimating the Yaw of Repose
In the absence of having 6-DoF simulation data available, we could approximate the Yaw of
Repose angle βR(t) by assigning readily integrable (closed form) continuous functions of
time t to represent the variables ω2(t) and V(t) in Eq. 21 so that we could then approximate
this summing operation by performing the definite integration of ΔβR(t) over time from t =
0 to time t and dividing the integrated result by the total time interval t:
βR(t) (2π*g/t)∫[ω2(t)*V(t)]-1 dt (22)
Here the extra factor of 2 in this expression for βR(t) in Eq. 22 versus the expression for
ΔβR(t) in Eq. 21 is due to integrating ΔΦ(t) continuously rather than using its average value
ΔΦ/2 over each half-coning cycle.
Note that the size of the Yaw of Repose angle βR(t) whenever α(t)>>ΔΦ depends only on
the velocity V(t) and coning rate ω2(t) of the bullet as functions of time. In particular, βR(t)
in this formulation is independent of the coning angle α(t) itself in this analysis.
Since the spin-drift displacement SD(t) is caused directly by this Yaw of Repose angle βR(t)
as an aerodynamic lift effect, evaluation of the spin-drift SD(t) does not require detailed
knowledge of the bullet’s coning angle α(t). This independence of βR(t) is significant
because the coning angle α(t) is a free variable in Coning Theory and is thus difficult to
evaluate analytically except in special cases.
If we calculate the values of ω2(t) and V(t) at t = 0 and at a much later flight time t = T, and
we assume for approximation purposes that each function decays exponentially with time
t, then the definite integral for βR(t) can be expressed as:
βR(t) {2π*g/[ω2(0)* (0)*T]} ∫exp[-(kω + kV)*t/T] dt (23)
with
kω ln[(ω2(T)/ω2(0)]
ω2(t) ω2(0)*exp[kω*t/T] (24)
kV = ln[V(T)/V(0)]
V(t) = V(0)*exp[kV*t/T] (25)
Here we are using t/T as a dimensionless canonical variable in the exponential decay
expressions and as a dummy variable in the (summing) integration.
After the definite integration from t = 0 to t =T, the expression for βR(t) is:
βR(t) = {-2π*g/[ω2(0)* (0)*(kω + kV)]}*{exp[-(kω + kV)*t/T] - 1} (26)
January/2017
Note that βR(0) = 0.00 as we require here.
ur “no wind anywhere” P D runs for this M118LR bullet show that V(t) slows from
an initial velocity of 2600.07 feet per second to 1340 FPS (Mach 1.20) at 888.5 yards
downrange with a time-of-flight (T) of 1.430 seconds, and the coning rate ω2(t) of the bullet
slows from 2π*45.57 radians per second to 2π*17.00 radians per second over this same
interval T.
The Yaw of Repose βR(T) at T = 1.430 seconds, and at 888.5 yards downrange, would then
be calculated as:
kω ln[(ω2(T)/ω2(0)] = -0.98604
kV = ln[V(T)/V(0)] = -0.66328
βR(1.430 sec) = [1.6464x10-4]*[4.2034] = 0.69206 mrad = 0.039652 degrees (27)
While PRODAS does not report βR, this small 0.040-degree angle is not unreasonable for
this bullet at 888.5 yards downrange.
A smoothed value of 0.5040 milliradians (or 0.02888 degrees) can be directly calculated for
the tangent angle βT at .5 yards into a “no wind” P D simulated flight by ratioing an
extracted horizontally rightward velocity VR(t) to the forward velocity V(t) of the bullet at
t=1.430 seconds.
However, this velocity ratio is very sensitive to the ongoing epicyclic swerving motion
included in the PRODAS Drift reports, and its smoothed value probably should be
somewhat larger here at t = 1.430 seconds.
Our fitted algorithm, mentioned above, for estimating the tangent angle βT at 888.5 yards
yields 0.610186 milliradians or 0.034961 degrees. This would indicate a reasonable
horizontal tracking error angle εH of 0.08187 milliradians, or 13.4 percent of βT at that point
in the flight.
This closed-form integration yields a value of βR about midway between our numerically-
integrated value and the adjusted classic value of βR as calculated from the same PRODAS
data at t = T.
We will use this closed-form algorithm (Eq. 26) for estimating the Yaw of Repose angle
βR(t) without relying upon any 6-DoF simulation data in formulating the spin-drift SD(t) of
any rifle bullet at long ranges.
Think of these incremental yaw-attitude changes as occurring twice per coning cycle at the
TDC and BDC positions of the coning bullet throughout the flight.
January/2017
The double-coning-rate sequence of small torque impulses ΔM produces a reinforcing chain
of these “first motions” which gradually shifts the coning-axis direction of the spinning
bullet evermore rightward.
The initial Yaw of Repose at bullet launch βR(0) must be zero by definition.
These calculations serve to validate our analysis of the basic causes of the Yaw of Repose.
January/2017
Analysis of the Spin Drift
The horizontally rightward spin-drift SD(t) of the trajectory is caused by a net horizontal
aerodynamic lift-force attributable to this small, but ever increasing, rightward Yaw of
Repose angular bias βR(t) in the yaw-attitude of the coning-axis of the spinning bullet.
The pointing direction of the bullet’s coning axis quickly tracks each of these small changes
in the approaching apparent wind direction within one half of a coning cycle, just as with
any other type of wind change.
As the horizontal projection of the mean trajectory traced by the mean CG of the bullet
gradually accelerates rightward with this spin-drift SD(t), its tangent +V direction defining
the origin of wind-axes plots should properly drift slowly rightward also, following (but
lagging) the increasing Yaw of Repose attitude angle βR(t) of the bullet.
We formulated this tangent angle βT(t) earlier. Logically, only the horizontal tracking error
angle εH(t) βR(t) – βT(t) ≥ 0 should appear in these wind-axes plots.
In formulating the effective net (time-averaged) aerodynamic lift-force accelerating the CG
of the coning bullet rightward, we must consider the coning modulation of the aerodynamic
effect as the CG of the bullet moves throughout its circular coning cycle.
Here the modulation is horizontally left-to-right, and the effect being modulated is an
aerodynamic lift force.
However, for the uniformly coning rifle bullet, analysis of the modulation of this lift force
can be greatly simplified by making use of Coning Theory.
We can express the average effective aerodynamic lift-force on the coning bullet arising
from the Yaw of Repose angle βR(t) as if the bullet were not coning, but simply flying with
the spin-axis always aligned with the attitude of its coning axis [α(t) 0]. After all, it is the
attitude of that coning axis which properly defines this Yaw of Repose angle.
The actual average aerodynamic angle of attack in a coordinate system moving with the
bullet is just the tracking error angle εH(t). The lift-force attributable to this εH(t) angle of
attack keeps increasing the rightward curvature of the mean trajectory. In earth-fixed
coordinates, the average horizontal angle of attack driving the mean trajectory away from
the X-axis is εH(t)+βT(t) = βR(t).
The magnitude of the small net rightward aerodynamic lift force {FL}R attributable to the
rightward yaw attitude bias βR(t) of the coning axis is given in linear aeroballistics as:
{FL}R = q*S*CLβ*SIN[βT(t) + εH(t)] – q*S*CD* IN[βT(t)]
Or
January/2017
{FL}R ≈ q(t)* *CLβ(t)*βR(t) – q(t)*S*CD(t)*βT(t) (29)
The small rightward aerodynamic lift force acting horizontally on the bullet is actually
counteracted partially by an even smaller cross-bore component of the bullet’s significant
aerodynamic drag force FD given by q*S*CD*βT(t).
Here the coefficient of lift CLβ(t) and coefficient of drag CD(t) are evaluated for the very
small aerodynamic angle-of-attack βR(t). However, they still vary with the Mach-speed of
the slowing bullet. The dynamic pressure q(t) also reduces with the square of its airspeed
V(t) as the bullet slows.
This small rightward horizontal force {FL}R acting on a bullet of mass m for one half the
period T2 of each coning cycle produces a rightward horizontal bullet velocity increment
Δ R given here in feet per second per half-coning cycle as:
Δ R = {FL}R*T2/(2*m) = {FL}R/[2*m*f2(t)] (π/m)*{FL}R/ω2(t) (30)
Where m is the mass of the bullet expressed in slugs. Here, m = 175.16/(7000*g) =
0.00077774 slugs. We are using g = 32.174 feet per second per second for the standard
effective “acceleration of gravity” on or near the surface of our rotating earth.
These rightward velocity increments Δ R accumulate (sum) from zero at t = 0 for each half
coning cycle which occurs from launch to time t to form the horizontally rightward velocity
VR(t) of the CG of the bullet which is caused aerodynamically by the Yaw of Repose angle
βR(t).
The incremental rightward horizontal spin-drift of the bullet, Δ D in feet, during one
particular half-coning cycle T2/2 is then:
Δ D(t) R(t)*T2/2 = VR(t)/[2*f2(t)] π* R(t)/ω2(t) (31)
The horizontal spin-drift SD(t) at time t is then found by summing these incremental
displacements Δ D(t) for each half coning cycle starting with zero at t = 0. Our subject
M118LR bullet experiences 87 half-coning cycles during its flight to 1000 yards.
Numerical integration of Δ D(t) using PRODAS data for each millisecond of the simulated
“no wind” flight yields SD(1.6923 sec) = 9.7019 inches. PRODAS itself calculates a total drift
of 9.5407 inches at 1000 yards. The PRODAS drift includes the horizontal component of the
minimal coning motion of the spinning bullet.
This level of agreement verifies our aeroballistic analysis of the causes of spin-drift.
January/2017
Analytic Calculation of the Spin Drift at the Target
If we formulate a reliable estimation of the scale factor ScF for any given bullet in any given
firing conditions, this scale factor ScF can then be used together with a reliably calculated
alue of that bullet’s DROP from the bore axis at the target to calculate analytically the spin-
drift SD(t) at the target for any given rifle bullet in any firing conditions according to Eq. 2:
SD(t) = -ScF*DROP(t) (2)
e know from examination of a ailable “constant crosswind” P D 6-DoF simulations
that the scale factor ScF needs to be 0.0219685 for the “constant no-wind” runs, and
0.0222219 (or 1.154 percent larger) for the “constant 10 MPH crosswind” runs for this
example M118LR bullet fired in these simulated conditions to 1000 yards.
The unrealistic “constant no-wind” PRODAS case represents the minimum possible SD(t)
values for this bullet fired at this muzzle velocity and spin-rate in this atmosphere and
flying with the minimum possible coning motion throughout its flight.
Most dynamically stable rifle bullets fired outdoors at long ranges will likely suffer only the
minimal 1.154 percent increased “constant 10 MPH crosswind” type of spin-drift SD(t) at
long ranges.
However, a dynamically unstable rifle bullet, such as the infamous mid-range 30-caliber
168-grain Sierra International, might experience about 5 percent greater spin-drift (SD)
when fired to long ranges (up to 800 meters) through any non-zero crosswinds.
January/2017
Estimating the Ratio of Second Moments of Inertia for Rifle Bullets
We need an accurate estimation of the ratio Iy/Ix for our rifle bullet so that we can find the
coning rate ω2(t) of that bullet at any time t during its flight from Tri-Cyclic Theory.
We will use the reference diameter for our subject bullet d(in feet) = 1.00 calibers as the
distance metric throughout these calculations.
By definition, the second moment of inertia of the bullet about any of its principal axes can
be expressed as:
Ix = m*kx2
Iy = m*ky2 (32)
where
m = mass of the bullet
kx = radius of gyration about the spin-axis of the bullet (a principal axis of inertia), and
ky = radius of gyration about any transverse principal axis through the CG of the bullet.
The radius of gyration for any mass distributed about any possible axis of rotation is the
radial distance from that axis at which all of that mass could be considered to be
concentrated into a thin shell for purposes of calculating the second moment of that mass
distribution about that axis.
So, the ratio Iy/Ix becomes:
Iy/Ix = (ky/kx)2 (33)
We have accurately measured kx for a typical long-range rifle bullet to be 0.238352
calibers, and we believe this kx value (in calibers) to be reasonably invariant across the
population of the better long-range rifle bullet designs.
e analytically “sliced” a uniform-density long-range rifle bullet design into many thin
discs of equal thickness, each perpendicular to the spin-axis, and then calculated the
average radius over the length of the solid bullet as 0.337081 calibers.
We then multiplied this average outside radius by one half the square root of two (or
0.707107, the radius of gyration ratio for each thin, uniform-density disc about a central
perpendicular axis) to arrive at the radius of gyration kx = 0.238352 calibers about the
spin-axis of this representative long-range rifle bullet.
We estimate ky for any long-range rifle bullet based on several measurable bullet
parameters and the features often found in long-range rifle bullet designs: 1) presence of a
January/2017
Meplat, 2) presence of a Boat-Tail, and 3) presence of a Rear Driving-Band. We do not
include the presence of hollow cavities mainly because of the difficulties in measuring and
specifying them.
We calculate a Length-Effect LE upon ky based on the length L of the bullet in calibers:
LE = 0.50*SQRT(L2/3 + 0.25) (34)
This expression calculates the transverse radius of gyration ky for a uniform-density “short
cylinder” of 1.0-caliber diameter and L calibers in length about a transverse axis through its
midpoint CG.
We calculate a Meplat-Effect ME upon ky as:
ME = 21.0*[LOCCG + (3*LN + LFN)/4]*VOLNC/VOLBUL (35)
where
21.0 = Empirically determined weight factor
LOCCG = CG location (in calibers) behind the base of the bullet’s ogi e
LN = Measured Length of the bullet’s nose in calibers
LFN = Full length of bullet’s complete ogi e in calibers (as calculated in the C J paper)
VOLNC = (-π/12)*(DM2)*(LFN – LN) = Missing volume of truncated nose cone in cubic
calibers, and
VOLBUL = (Wt of bullet in grains)/[(2750 gr/cu. in.)*(12*d)3] = Estimated volume of the
bullet in cubic calibers. Here we are using 2750 grains per cubic inch as an estimated
average density of a jacketed lead-core long-range rifle bullet.
The large relative weight factor (21.0) used here is to account for the disparate impact on
ky versus kx caused by missing this nose-cone mass.
We calculate a Boat-Tail Effect BTE on ky as:
BTE = (L – LN – LBT/4 – LOCCG)*VOLBT/VOLBUL (36)
LBT = Measured length of boat-tail in calibers, and
VOLBT = (-π/12)*L T*[2 – DBT*(DBT + 1)] = Missing volume due to boat-tail, and
DBT = Measured diameter of base of boat-tail in calibers.
A relative weight factor of unity is assigned to this Boat-Tail Effect in this analysis.
We calculate a Rear Driving-Band Effect RDBE upon ky as:
January/2017
RDBE = 23.0*(LOCDB – LOCCG)*VOLDB/VOLBUL (37)
Where
23.0 = Empirical weight factor
LOCDB = Measured midpoint location (in calibers) of the rear driving-band behind the base
of the ogive
VOLDB = (-π/4)* D *(DD 2 – 1) = Extra volume of driving-band in cubic calibers, with
WDB = Measured effective width of driving-band in calibers
DDB = Measured outside diameter of driving-band in calibers. DDB = 1.00 calibers if no
driving-band is present.
This correction is also negative for a rear driving-band bullet design because it is missing a
thin outer shell of mass everywhere forward of its driving band. The empirical weight
factor accounts for the ratio of these “shell” masses and their disparate Iy/Ix effects,
predominantly a disproportionate reduction in kx versus ky.
The radius of gyration ky about a transverse principal axis (in calibers) is then found by
summing:
ky = 0.679897*(LE + ME + BTE + RDBE) (38)
The initial factor 0.679897 adjusts ky for a typically tapered “rifle bullet” shape and for its
typically offset CG location from its mid-length location as distinct from the uniform-
diameter “short cylinder” model used above in developing the Length-Effect LE in this
physical analysis.
The missing volume of the Meplat-Effect ME is modeled as a small right-circular cone of
height h with its mass concentrated at a CG located at h/4 on its axis.
The missing boat-tail volume is modeled as a 1.0-caliber cylinder of length LBT minus the
frustum of a conical boat-tail with the CG of the missing volume located at h/4 from its
(thicker) aft end. The Rear Driving-Band is modeled as a thin-walled cylinder.
Any low-density polymer or aluminum “tip” used in the design of a long-range rifle bullet
should be ignored in making your bullet measurements. The possible presence of hollow
cavities in any bullet designs has not yet been separately addressed because of the
expected difficulty of measuring and specifying these internal cavities.
The estimated value of Iy/Ix is then calculated for this bullet in accordance with Eq. 33 as:
Iy/Ix = (ky/0.238352)2 (39)
January/2017
This estimator calculates the second moment ratio Iy/Ix as 9.067260 for the 30-caliber
175.16-grain M118LR bullet, which matches exactly (because we selected it as typical of all
long-range bullets) the Iy/Ix ratio which can be extracted very precisely from our available
PRODAS simulation data using that bullet.
In other words, we recovered the exact Iy/Ix ratio which was calculated by the proprietary
PRODAS pre-processor for this particular type of bullet. PRODAS is well regarded world-
wide for the fidelity of its flight simulations to actual measurements of the flights of fired
projectiles of all types.
Applying this estimator to data for the old 30-caliber 168-grain Sierra International bullet
[from McCoy, page 217 MEB] yields an Iy/Ix ratio of 7.4787 or 0.502 percent greater than
the value 7.4413 reported by McCoy.
Applying this estimator to a 30-caliber 173-grain monolithic brass ultra-low-drag bullet of
new design yields an Iy/Ix ratio of 13.4623 or 0.081 percent less than the value 13.4733
calculated by numerical integration of the mass distribution for that bullet design.
However, we did use the calculated CG location of 0.5575 calibers behind the ogive and the
known density of the brass material 2128 grains per cubic inch for that new bullet design.
We calculated the accurate value of kx = 0.238352 calibers from the detailed numerical
data describing that patented bullet design as well. This monolithic (solid) brass bullet
design has uniform density throughout and has no hollow cavities.
January/2017
Estimating the Spin Drift Scale Factor ScF
With all this in mind, we formulate an estimator for an ScF value for the “constant 10 MPH
crosswind” type of coning motion of our example bullet which can be duplicated for any
other dynamically stable bullet in any likely firing conditions.
In flat firing, we can formulate the scale factor ScF in terms of the ratio of 1) the horizontal
aerodynamic lift-force acting on the flying bullet due to its Yaw of Repose βR as that bullet
nears its long-range target to 2) the vertically downward-acting weight of that bullet. In
this manner, we can formulate ScF for any given bullet and likely wind conditions as:
cF 1.01154*0.3 3703*[q(t)* ]* IN[βR(t)]*CLβ(t)/Wt
ScF = 0.3 132*[q(t)* ]*βR(t)*CLβ(t)/Wt (40)
with Wt = 175.16/7000 representing the weight of this M118LR bullet given in pounds-
force lbf.
Here again, as in the earlier simplified formulation of ΔΦ, we are ignoring the upward force
on the free-flying bullet caused by the cross-bore component of its ballistic drag force. The
force offset effects of these two simplifications cancel out here in forming this ratio for
evaluating ScF.
The initial constants (0.383703 and 0.388132) have been empirically determined from
several PRODAS runs and should be the same for any dynamically stable rifle bullet in any
firing conditions likely to be encountered in long-range shooting. The PRODAS runs show
the M118LR bullet to be dynamically stable.
These PRODAS simulations, together with the classic formulation for the yaw of repose
angle βR(t), indicate that the scale factor ScF might need to be increased by about 5 percent
for dynamically unstable bullets which will fly with significant coning angles throughout
their flight when fired through any crosswinds.
Each of these functions of time t should be evaluated at the time T when the bullet has
slowed to an airspeed of 1340 feet per second (or approximately Mach 1.20, depending
upon ambient conditions).
This flight time T and the flight distance at which it occurs are completely independent of
the actual range to the target. The time T can be determined by using a 3-DoF point-mass
trajectory calculator.
Any good long-range rifle bullet should remain safely above the turbulent transonic region
at this 1340 fps airspeed in almost any reasonable atmospheric conditions. The more
“aerodynamic” of our lowest-drag long-range rifle bullet designs will not encounter
January/2017
transonic buffeting until they slow to about Mach 1.10 airspeed. The needed coefficient of
lift CLβ is particularly difficult to estimate for any bullet in the transonic airspeed regime.
Most experienced long-range riflemen select their shooting equipment so that whenever
possible their bullets impact the target at airspeeds above Mach 1.2
For similar best-accuracy reasons, we base our calculation of ScF upon bullet data at 1340
fps airspeed regardless of the actual range to the intended target.
We calculate the potential drag-force q(T)*S using the calculated density ρ of the ambient
atmosphere in slugs per cubic foot, and the airspeed V(T) = 1340 feet per second:
q(T)* (π*d2/4)*(ρ/2)*(1340 fps)2 (41)
This potential drag-force value should be about 1.1 lbf for a 30-caliber bullet at this
airspeed depending on air density ρ. The potential drag-force at 1340 fps varies most
strongly with the square of the caliber d of the bullet (in feet).
The analytic estimate of βR(T) is calculated per Eq. 26 above with t = T and V(T) = 1340
fps. With these simplifications Eq. 26 becomes:
βR(T) = -g*{exp[-(kω + kV)] - 1}/[f2(0)* (0)*(kω + kV)] (42)
If we know the initial gyroscopic stability Sg of the bullet, we can calculate the initial
Stability Ratio R of its epicyclic rates f1/f2 from:
R = 2*{Sg + SQRT[Sg*(Sg – 1)]} – 1 (43)
The initial coning rate f2(0) in hertz can then be found from Tri-Cyclic Theory as:
f2(0) = V(0)/[Tw*(Iy/Ix)*(R + 1)] (44)
where
Tw = Absolute value of the Twist Rate of barrel in feet per turn.
Iy/Ix = Ratio of transverse to axial second moments of inertia for this bullet as estimated
above.
Substituting back into Eq. 42, we have:
βR(T) = -g*Tw*(Iy/Ix)*(R + 1)*{exp[-(kω + kV)] - 1}/[V2(0)*(kω + kV)] (45)
where
V(0) = Launch velocity of this particular bullet in feet per second. [V(0) is assumed to
exceed Mach 2.0]
kω -0.98604, as before for any long-range bullet, and
January/2017
kV = ln[1340/V(0)].
This value βR(T) in radians is the estimated Yaw of Repose angle for this bullet when it has
slowed to 1340 fps.
The CLβ(T) value is estimated based on an estimate of the initial CLβ(0) for the Mach-speed
of the bullet at launch (here Mach 2.3289) evaluated from Robert L. McCoy’s INTLIFT
program for the nose-length effect, but using our own boat-tail effect lift reduction for
these long-range bullets.
We multiply McCoy’s nose-length estimated CL by the square root of 0.2720/BC7 for each
bullet, reasoning that about half of any differing drag for bullets having higher or lower
ballistic coefficients BC7 (ballistic coefficient relative to the G7 Reference Projectile) than
our example M118LR bullet is due to having a more or less effective boat-tail design.
If a more reliable BC1 value (BC relative to the G1 Reference Projectile) is available for your
rifle bullet, use the square root of 0.5460/BC1 for this estimated CL adjustment for
variations in bullet drag.
The full nose-length (LFN) for the30-caliber M118LR bullet is 2.5955 calibers. The initial
coefficient of lift CLβ(0) at this Mach 2.3289 airspeed calculates to 2.720 using our adjusted
INTLIFT estimate.
ery slightly scaling McCoy’s published lift cur e for the well-studied 30-caliber 168-grain
Sierra International bullet to this lift coefficient 2.720 at this Mach 2.3289 airspeed yields a
coefficient of lift CLβ(T) of 1.877 at Mach 1.20 in this standard ICAO atmosphere.
The bullet’s coefficient of drag CD0 determines its time-rate of decay in Mach-speed. The
supersonic lift-to-drag ratio FL/FD for any given angle-of-attack tends to be an invariant
aerodynamic characteristic of each basic bullet shape.
Since the coefficients of lift and drag are highly correlated at any given Mach-speed over
the population of long-range rifle bullets, the same exponential time-decay coefficient:
kL = ln[CLβ(T)/ CLβ(0)] = -0.3711 (46)
can be used in propagating the coefficients of lift CLβ(T) for any long-range rifle bullets of
interest here.
We propagate this initial coefficient of lift CLβ(0) estimate forward to its value at time T as:
CLβ(T) = CLβ(0)*EXP[-0.3711*(V(0)/2600 fps)2 *(1.430 sec/T)] (47)
The coefficient of lift CLβ(T) for any very-low-drag (VLD) or ultra-low-drag (ULD) long-
range rifle bullet should be smaller than 1.90 at this airspeed of 1340 fps. Bullets designed
January/2017
for lower aerodynamic drag will also produce less aerodynamic lift. Conversely, you cannot
produce more lift without also increasing drag in aerodynamics.
The exponential propagation function [Eq. 47] estimates a larger fraction of the initial
coefficient of lift CLβ(0) remaining at 1340 fps airspeed when the time-of-flight T to that
airspeed is increased due to firing a higher-drag bullet, but the initial velocity correction
factor [V(0)/2600 fps]2 prevents this increase when time-of-flight T to 1340 fps increases
simply due to firing that same bullet with a higher muzzle velocity V(0).
That is, if the same bullet is fired at different muzzle velocities, its estimated coefficient of
lift CLβ(T) at 1340 fps airspeed should remain the same.
The muzzle velocity V(0) is assumed to exceed Mach 2. This coefficient of lift propagation
yields the expected CLβ(T) = 1.8769 at 1340 fps for the M118LR bullet, and varies by less
than 1 percent over any reasonable launch speeds V(0) for this one bullet type.
The scale factor ScF is now calculated from Eq. 40 using the values of the time-functions at
time T as calculated in Eq. 41, Eq. 45, and Eq. 47 above:
cF 0.3 132*[q(T)* ]*βR(T)*CLβ(T)/Wt (48)
where
0.388132 = An empirically determined constant (from PRODAS data) for all firings of
“normally coning” dynamically stable rifle bullets through any non-zero, “reasonably
constant” (non-diabolical) crosswinds.
This constant is numerically necessary for several likely reasons, chief among them that the
driving horizontal lift-force FL[t, βR(t)] is actually attributable only to the horizontal
tracking error attitude angle εH(t) instead of the entire yaw-of-repose angle βR(t).
If we might be slightly misestimating the Yaw of Repose angle βR(T) or coefficient of lift
CLβ(T) used here in any systematic ways for these minimal-coning-motion “constant wind”
6-DoF flight simulations, the empirically-determined initial constant factor 0.388132, from
that same PRODAS data, tends to absorb any net difference.
January/2017
Calculating the Spin Drift at the Target
The spin-drift SD(tof) at the target distance is calculated from Eq. 2 above using the
invariant Scale Factor ScF, as calculated in Eq. 48 above for the bullet slowed to 1340 fps,
and the total DROP from the axis of the bore for the time-of-flight (tof) to the actual target:
SD(tof) = -ScF*DROP(tof) (49)
The Spin-Drift SD at the target is calculated here in Eq. 49 in the same distance or angular
units in which the bullet’s DROP from the bore axis is given. Again, the proper algebraic
sign depends upon coordinate system conventions and the sense of the bullet’s spin
rotation.
The bullet DROP and time-of-flight (tof) to the target are accurately calculated in many
existing 3-DoF point-mass trajectory propagators. After all, the accurate calculation of
bullet DROP at the target distance is the basic figure of merit for these software aids.
The time-of-flight (tof) to the target is used in the Litz SD estimator and is nice to know
even if we do not actually need it in these calculations.
If your particular trajectory propagation program does not directly output “drop from bore
axis” data, you can usually “fake” it into doing so by setting your scope height equal zero,
setting the angle-of-fire accurately equal to that of the anticipated shot, setting the rifle’s
“zero range” equal to some minimum distance (ideally zero, or perhaps 5 or 10 yards if
made necessary by input limit constraints), and specifying that the trajectory calculations
go out to the target’s known or measured range.
In other words, we want to calculate the DROP from the bore axis at the target distance as if
we were “bore-sighted” on that long-range target.
The smoothed spin-drift reported by P D at 1000 yards for “constant zero-wind”
simulations with this 175.16-grain M118LR bullet fired in these conditions is 9.5407 inches.
The spin-drift SD estimated via this algorithm for 1000 yards (without the factor of
1.01154 increase in ScF) is 9.5635 inches.
Comparing the two results millisecond-by-millisecond, throughout the flight of 1692.3
milliseconds, yields a mean difference of 0.0043 inches, with a population standard
deviation of 0.0207 inches.
This level of agreement between our estimator for spin-drift for each millisecond and the
PRODAS numerical simulation results is rather astonishing. The rounding error for drop
and drift data in the PRODAS report format is 0.180 inches at 1000 yards, and we are not
e en estimating the horizontal component of the bullet’s small coning motion which is
included in the PRODAS drift data.
January/2017
The agreement of this spin-drift SD estimator with PRODAS “constant 10 MPH crosswind”
runs is also about this good when the Scale Factor ScF includes the 1.154 percent increase
as formulated above.
This 1.154-percent-augmented version of ScF in Eq. 48 should be calculated for firing any
other dynamically stable rifle bullets outdoors.
Summary
I. We fit an exponential tangent angle function βT(t) to extracted velocity-ratio

data from a PRODAS simulation which minimizes the epicyclic swerve
complications in measuring the Yaw of Repose angle βR(t). We discovered that
the spin-drift SD at long range is affected slightly (about 5 percent) by the
magnitude α(t) of coning motion experienced by the bullet en route to the target,
with consistently larger coning angles α(t) producing slightly more spin-drift
SD(t).
II. We define the horizontal and vertical direction tracking error angles, εH and εV
respecti ely, which should appear in a ballistician’s wind-axes plots resulting
from 6-DoF flight simulations. Just as with the flight path angle Φ, the Yaw of
Repose angle βR(t) logically should not appear in those wind-axes plots which
reference the +V direction of the 3-dimensional mean trajectory as their origin.
We provide an analytic formulation in Eq. 3 for βT(t), the horizontal tangent
angle, which logically should be subtracted from the bullet’s spin-axis yaw
attitude data before plotting.
III. We explain the aerodynamic causes of Yaw of Repose and spin-drift and
numerically verify those explanations using data from PRODAS 6-DoF
simulations together with the principles of linear aeroballistics theory.
IV. We reformulate the classic aeroballistic Yaw of Repose angle as βR πPG/M,

which holds for a significantly coning bullet with α(t)>>ΔΦ throughout its flight.
Furthermore, βR(0) = 0.00 at launch by definition. For a minimally coning bullet
with α(t)≳ΔΦ, βR βT + εH ≈ 0.95πPG/M.
V. We formulated an accurate analytic estimator for the ratio Iy/Ix of the second
moments of inertia for any long-range rifle bullet so that the sum of its two
epicyclic rates (ω1 + ω2) can be calculated via Tri-Cyclic Theory from the
remaining circular spin-rate ω of the bullet (in radians per second) at any time t
during its flight.
January/2017
VI. We note that in flat firing the spin-drift displacement SD of the bullet at any long
range is essentially an invariant scale factor ScF times the bullet’s drop distance
from the projected bore axis at that range. The scale factor ScF runs about 1.2 to
2.4 percent for the various long-range rifle bullets in typical flat firing. That
bullet’s drop from the axis of the bore is accurately computed in any 3-DoF
trajectory propagation program. This same scale factor ScF defines the ratio of
the horizontal and vertical angular deviations of the tangent to the mean
trajectory from the axis of the bore at firing time (when t = 0). The angular
deviation in the horizontal plane βT(t) is always equal to the Scale Factor ScF
times the vertical-direction deviation ΔΦTotal(t) Φ(t) – Φ(0).
VII. We present an analytic calculation of that invariant scale factor ScF so that an
accurate and reliable calculation of spin-drift SD(t) can be computed for any
long-range rifle bullet flat-fired in any likely conditions without relying upon 6-
DoF simulations. This dimensionless Scale Factor ScF can also be used as part of
a collection K of invariant values from Eq. 40 such that the Yaw of Repose angle
βR(t) can be calculated for any flight time t as:
βR(t) = K/[V2(t)*CLβ(t)] (50)
with
K ( cF/0.3 132)*[ t/(ρ* /2)] (51)
This formulation of βR(t) is very similar to the classic formulation for βR(t), and
this formulation also does not evaluate to zero at t = 0. This calculated non-zero
initial yaw-of-repose attitude angle βR(0) ≈ 0.130 milliradians is just the initial
yaw attitude which would be required to produce a hypothetical horizontal lift
force of ScF*Wt at muzzle velocity V(0). Of course, no such side-force exists at
bullet launch.
January/2017
Example Calculations of ly/lx
The parameters and calculations needed to determine Yaw of Repose βR and spin-drift SD
are shown in tabular format below without resorting to use of information obtained from
6-DoF simulations.
Three different 30-caliber rifle bullets are selected for these parallel calculations for variety
and based on availability of bullet measurements including Iy/Ix ratios. Two additional 30-
caliber rifle bullets are included because they were tested in “drift firings” by ryan Litz.
The obsolete 168-grain Sierra International bullet (for which McCoy supplies the needed
data) is similar to their current improved 168-grain MatchKing (SMK). We have several
PRODAS runs for the bullet used in the US Army M118LR 7.62 mm NATO Special Ball
ammunition.
The 175.16-grain M118LR bullet is used as the pattern for calculating Iy/Ix for any other
bullet, so its calculated Iy/Ix value is exactly that used by PRODAS. We are using the bullet
shape parameters for the similar 30-caliber 175-grain Sierra MatchKing bullet in lieu of the
data on the M118LR bullet until such data can be obtained.
The 173-grain solid (monolithic) brass Ultra-Low-Drag (ULD) bullet design has not yet
been tested, but its numerical design description allows accurate modeling of its flight
characteristics using McCoy’s aeroballistic estimators.
The data on the Berger 175-grain Open-Tip Match (OTM) Tactical bullet and their 185-
grain Long Range Boat Tail (LRBT) bullets, as well as the test conditions during their 1000-
yard drift firing, were taken from ryan’s publications.
The analytic method used here for estimating the Iy/Ix ratio for rifle bullets is calibrated
against the value 9.067260 used by PRODAS for the 30-caliber M118LR bullet. The pre-
processor estimation of Iy/Ix used in PRODAS is proprietary, but its results are certainly
well accepted in the ballistics community.
The Iy/Ix ratio of 7.4413 is published by McCoy for the old 168-grain Sierra International
bullet. Our estimate of 7.4787 is 0.502 percent larger than McCoy’s measured alue.
The target Iy/Ix ratio of 13.4733 for the new monolithic brass ULD bullet was calculated by
numerical integration of its elements of mass. Our estimated value here of 13.4624 is 0.081
percent smaller than this value.
The data used here for the two Berger 30-caliber bullets selected by Bryan Litz in his drift
firing experiments at 1000 yards are taken from his publications.
January/2017
175-gr
30-Caliber Example 168-gr 175-gr 173-gr 185-gr Berger
Berger
Bullets: International M118LR ULD(SB) LR-BT
Tactical
Bullet Length L (cal) 3.9800 4.0260 5.4368 4.1169 4.3929
Nose Length LN (cal) 2.2600 2.3052 2.8368 2.3701 2.5747
Diameter of Meplat DM
0.2500 0.2175 0.1000 0.1948 0.2013
(cal)
Length of Boat-Tail LBT
0.5100 0.5360 0.7012 0.6331 0.5844
(cal)
Diameter of Base DB
0.7645 0.8280 0.8420 0.8409 0.8182
(cal)
Ratio of Ogive
0.9000 1.0000 0.5000 0.9000 0.9500
Generating Radii RT/R
CG loc (cal. from ogive) 0.2000 0.3000 0.5575 0.4000 0.0000
Volume (Cu. Cal.) 2.090858 2.17797 3.004986 2.177977 2.302432
Calc. Tangent Ogive
6.997633 6.98661 9.166594 7.177891 8.499340
Radius RT (cal)
Calc. Full Tangent Ogive
2.597621 2.59549 2.986067 2.632089 2.872166
Length LFT (cal)
Calc. Full Conical Nose
3.013333 2.94594 3.152000 2.943548 3.223577
Length LFC (cal)
Calc. Full Nose Length
2.639192 2.59549 3.069033 2.663235 2.889737
LFN (cal)
ky effects:
Length-Effect (LE) 1.175812 1.18879 1.589255 1.214452 1.292517
Meplat-Effect (ME) -0.159206 -0.0928 -0.014669 -0.079836 -0.080889
BT-Effect (BTE) -0.057892 -0.0403 -0.051220 -0.040878 -0.056933
Dr-Band-Effect (DBE) 0.000000 0.00000 -0.237083 0.000000 0.000000
SUM =
0.958714 1.05563 1.286284 1.093738 1.154695
LE+ME+BTE+DBE
SUM/Target ky Ratios: 0.678195 0.67989 0.680173

Target
0.650195 0.71772 0.874896
ky=kx*SQRT(Iy/Ix)
Target Iy/Ix 7.441300 9.067260 13.473300
Calculated Iy/Ix: 7.478685 9.06726 13.462337 9.733605 10.848792
Iy/Ix Error: 0.037385 0.00000 -0.010963
Percent Error: 0.502393 0.00000 -0.081369
January/2017
Example Calculations of Spin Drift
The remaining parameters needed to calculate Yaw of Repose βR and spin-drift SD are
calculated for the five example bullets in the spreadsheet shown below. A 3-DoF trajectory
program was used to compute the time-of-flight (tof) and flight distance to an airspeed of
1340 FPS and tof to a 1000-yard target for both the 168-grain SMK bullet and the new 173-
grain ULD bullet. PRODAS trajectory data was used for the 175.16-grain M118LR bullet.
The initial gyroscopic stability factor Sg was taken from McCoy for the old 168-grain Sierra
International bullet, and Sg is calculated using McCoy’s McG program for the new 173-
grain ULD bullet.
PRODAS reports the Sg-value for each millisecond of the flight of the M118LR bullet, but we
just used their initial value. Bryan Litz gives the initial Sg values for the two Berger bullets
used in his drift firings.
The ULD bullet is a dual-diameter design with the base of the ogive measuring 0.3002
inches in diameter (1.0-calibers for this bullet design). It has a rear driving-band measuring
0.3082 inches in diameter (or 1.02665 calibers). The midpoint (CG) of the rear driving-
band is located 1.6 calibers behind the base of its 3-caliber secant ogive, and the width of
this driving band is 0.6 calibers.
Our calculated Yaw of Repose angles βR for the first three example bullets when each has
slowed to an airspeed of 1340 FPS shows an interesting progression.
The estimated Yaw of Repose angles βR of the three trajectories at the 1340 FPS airspeed
points are 0.471231 milliradians for the obsolete 168-grain International bullet at 816
yards downrange, and 0.693417 milliradians at 888.5 yards downrange for the M118LR
bullet, but just 0.434382 milliradians for the new 173-grain monolithic brass ULD bullet,
and this occurs way beyond the 1000-yard target at 1457 yards downrange.
The assumed 3200 fps muzzle velocity of this new ULD bullet is based on firing it from a
300 Remington UltraMag cartridge. Each of the other example 30-caliber bullets is
assumed to be fired from a much less powerful 7.62 mm NATO or 308 Winchester
cartridge.
For comparison purposes the spin-drift SD at 1000 yards is calculated in inches for each of
our five example bullets using the SD estimator published by Bryan Litz:
SD(inches) = 1.25*(Sg + 1.2)*(tof)1.83 (52)
Our estimates of SD at 1000 yards are smaller than ryan’s estimates for each of these fi e
example bullets. Our estimate of spin-drift SD at 1000 yards for the M118LR bullet of
January/2017
9.7037 inches matches the SD computed by PRODAS (9.5407 inches) quite closely (error:
+0.163 inches, or +1.708 percent).
We expected this value to be 1.154 percent too large because this PRODAS run is for the
unrealistic “no wind anywhere” case causing absolute minimum coning motion of this
numerically defined “perfect bullet.” Thus, the unexplained difference between our SD
estimate and that computed in PRODAS is 0.554 percent. The Litz-estimated SD of 10.2791
inches for this M118LR bullet at 1000 yards exceeds the PRODAS value by 0.7156 inches, or
+7.483 percent.
Our estimate of 7.0152 inches of spin-drift SD at 1000 yards for the old 168-grain Sierra
International bullet from a 12-inch twist barrel is approximately 2.135 inches less than the
9.15 inches shown graphically by McCoy in Figure 9.8 of his MEB, and is 3.348 inches less
than the 10.020 inches calculated by the Litz estimator for this bullet.
We expected our estimate to be at least 5 percent (or 0.458 inches) too small for this
dynamically unstable bullet. We cannot readily explain the remainder of this difference
other than point to the unusually high coning rate ω2(t) of this bullet throughout its flight
due to its low Iy/Ix ratio.
Our estimate of 3.1214 inches of spin-drift SD at 1000 yards for the radical new 173-grain
monolithic brass ULD bullet design, versus the value of 5.1696 inches calculated by the Litz
estimator for this bullet, indicates the need for our more elaborate SD calculation in
predicting the long-range flights of current and future ultra-low-lift rifle bullets, even when
fired from faster twist-rate barrels.
The Litz spin-drift estimator is closer than our estimator to reported spin-drift values for
the old 168-grain Sierra International bullet and for the Berger 175-grain OTM Tactical
bullet.
Our estimator seems closer for the remaining three bullets, especially for the two very-low-
drag (and correspondingly very-low-lift) bullets—the brass 173-grain ULD bullet and the
Berger 185-grain Long Range Boat-Tail (LR-BT) bullet.
Of course, our predictive agreement with the PRODAS calculations for the M118LR bullet is
best of all. We expect that if 6-DoF simulations could be run for the other four bullets, our
estimator would match those results more closely.
e also suspect that ryan’s drift firing results would not match linear 6-DoF simulation
results particularly well if they could be computed.
The aerodynamic responses of real rifle bullets are non-linear enough to affect the
calculation of these small second-order effects. Real bullets are also subject to other types
of aerodynamic jump phenomena in real firings—some of which might be at least partially
systematic.
January/2017
Temp
Spin-Drift Example
(Degrees- 37.00
Calculations:
F)
Std ICAO Rel.
70.00
Atmosphere: Humidity
Stat
Rho (Lbm/Cu. Ft.) 0.0764742 0.0764742 0.0764742 Pressure 28.9500
(InHg)
0.0023974
Rho (Slugs/Cu.Ft.) 0.002376894 0.0023768 0.002376 0.00239745
59
Mach 1.00 = a (FPS) 1116.45 1116.45 1116.45 1093.23 1093.23
175-gr 185-gr
168-gr 175.16-gr 173-gr
30-Caliber Example Bullets: Berger Berger LR-
International M118LR ULD(SB)
Tactical BT
Bullet Length L (cal) 3.9800 4.0260 5.4368 4.1169 4.3929
Nose Length LN (cal) 2.2600 2.3052 2.8368 2.3701 2.5747
Diameter of Meplat DM (cal) 0.2500 0.2175 0.1000 0.1948 0.2013
Length of Boat-Tail LBT (cal) 0.5100 0.5360 0.7012 0.6331 0.5844
Diameter of Base DB (cal) 0.7645 0.8280 0.8420 0.8409 0.8182
Ratio of Ogive Generating
0.9000 1.0000 0.5000 0.9000 0.9500
Radii RT/R
Calc. Tangent Ogive Radius
6.9976 6.9866 9.1666 7.1779 8.4993
RT (cal)
Calc. Full Tangent Ogive
2.5976 2.5955 2.9861 2.6321 2.8722
Length LFT (cal)
Calc. Full Conical Nose
3.0133 2.9459 3.1520 2.9435 3.2236
Length LFC (cal)
Calc. Full Nose Length LFN
2.6392 2.5955 3.0690 2.6632 2.8897
(cal)
V0=Launch velocity (FPS): 2800.00 2600.07 3200.00 2660.00 2630.00

Initial Mach-Speed 2.5079 2.3289 2.8662 2.4332 2.4057
Initial B-value 2.3000 2.1032 2.6861 2.2182 2.1880
Ballistic Coef (G1 Ref) 0.4260 0.5460 0.6290 0.5060 0.5530
Ballistic Coef (G7 Ref) 0.2180 0.2720 0.3220 0.2580 0.2830
INTLIFT CL(0) 3.1015 2.7203 2.5551 2.8145 2.6189
Time T to 1340 FPS (sec) 1.2723 1.4300 2.1070 1.3972 1.5030
Range at 1340 FPS Airspeed
816.00 888.50 1457.00 881.5400 839.1000
(yards)
Est CL(T) at 1340 FPS: 1.9120 1.8769 1.7447 1.8913 1.8248
January/2017
Twist Rate (inches/turn, RH) 12.0000 11.5000 8.2500 10.0000 10.0000
Initial Sg 1.7400 1.9400 1.5940 2.2400 1.9100
Initial Stability Ratio (R) 4.7494 5.5808 4.1341 6.8132 5.4567
Calculated (Iy/Ix) Ratio 7.478685 9.067260 13.46233 9.7336 10.8488
Initial Coning Rate f2 (hz) 65.1188 45.4687 67.3429 41.9719 45.0549
kv=LN(1340/V(0) -0.736950 -0.662869 -0.870481 -0.685657 -0.674314
komega+kv -1.722990 -1.648909 -1.85652 -1.671697 -1.660354
Beta-R at time T (mrad) 0.471231 0.693417 0.434382 0.744921 0.696844
Ref. Diam. (1.0 cal. in inches): 0.3080 0.3080 0.3002 0.3080 0.3080
Frontal Area S (square feet) 0.000517403 0.0005174 0.000491 0.0005174 0.00051740
Potential Drag Force at 1340
1.1041 1.1041 1.0489 1.1041 1.1041
fps (lbf)
Bullet Weight (grains) 168.0 175.1600 173.0 175.0 185.0

Bullet Weight (lbf) 0.0240000 0.0250229 0.02471 0.02500 0.0264286
Calculated Scale Factor ScF 0.016088267 0.0222895 0.012484 0.0241500 0.02061980
DROP from Bore Axis at 1000

436.0450 435.3450 250.0250 428.4970 414.8350
yds (inches)
Time of Flight (tof) to 1000
1.7300 1.6923 1.2390 1.6870 1.6400
yds (seconds)
Remaining Velocity at 1000
1145.00 1213.99 1836.00 1197.00 1278.00
yds (FPS)
DROP from Bore Axis at 100
2.5500 2.6750 2.1400 2.7950 2.8550
yds (inches)
Calc. 100-yard SD (inches) 0.0410 0.0596 0.0267 0.0675 0.0589
Calculated 1000-yd Spin-Drift
7.0152 9.7036 3.1214 10.3482 8.5538
(inches rightward)
SD from McCoy Figure 9.8 9.1500
SD from PRODAS runs 9.5407
SD (inches) from Drift
11.4000 6.7000
Firings
Litz Est. Spin-Drift (inches
10.0203 10.2791 5.1696 11.1967 9.6125
rightward)
Litz Est. Spin-Drift Minus Our
3.0051 0.5754 2.0482 0.8485 1.0586
Calc. SD (inches)
January/2017
Sensitivity Analysis & Model comparisons
Sensitivity analysis was significant in studying and assessing the uncertainty in the output
of our model, which can be attributed to different sources of error of the input parameters.
Sensitivity analysis is an integral part of model development and involves analytical
examination of input parameters to aid in model validation and provide guidance for future
research.
We used it to determine how different values of one or more independent variables, impact
a particular dependent variable under a given set of conditions.
In other words, it helped us to investigate the robustness of the model predictions and to
explore the impact of varying input assumptions.
We chose to set on what is known as Local (sampled) sensitivity analysis, which is
derivative based (numerical or analytical). The use of this technique is the assessment of
the local impact of input factors' variation on model response by concentrating on the
sensitivity in vicinity of a set of factor values.
Such sensitivity is often evaluated through 2-dimensional gradients or partial derivatives of
the output functions at these factor values, (the values of other input factors are kept
constant) when studying the local sensitivity of a given input factor.
One of the critical objectives was to stress-test the model as well as to study its fidelity to
known experimental and model-based 6-DoF runs.
Unfortunately there are many results and accompanying charts to add, but in order to
make the document more manageable we’ e chosen to include only a pair of them, which
are significant in terms of reliability of the underlying numerical algorithm.
The following charts compare the outputs of three models used to estimate SD, namely
Hornady 4-DoF, Litz and the B&R method presented in this paper.
In the case of Hornady’s 4-DoF, the reader must take into consideration that three major
variables, Sg, DROP and ToF, are different than the ones used to calculate the B&R and Litz
outputs because it produces different DROP and ToF values as well as a varying Sg.
On the other hand, all DROP and ToF figures are the same for both Litz and B&R, and were
calculated with a common 3-DoF Point Mass software with a fixed-muzzle-only Sg based on
Miller’ rule. Indeed neither model is intended to work with a progressively increasing static
stability.
January/2017
As can be easily seen, the response to a varying Sg with a fixed ToF is clearly linear for both
models. Same behavior for a varying ToF with a fixed Sg. Bear in mind that the variation
ranges are quite narrow, which is the normal and expected uncertainty of these inputs.
Berger 215gr Hybrid - SD (inches) with a varying Sg and fixed TOF
19.5
17.5
15.5
13.5
11.5
Litz
9.5 B&R
7.5
5.5
3.5
1.5
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
Berger 215gr Hybrid - SD (inches) with a varying TOF and fixed Sg
9.0
8.0
7.0
Litz
B&R
6.0
5.0
4.0
1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70
January/2017
The slight decrease in SD with increasing ToF shown above for the B&R model is explained
by not adjusting the velocity V(t) of the bullet as ToF is varied. The B&R model uses V(t)
explicitly in many places.
Hornady 178 BTHP - SD (Inches) with a varying Sg and fixed TOF
9.8
8.8
7.8
4DOF
6.8
5.8
4.8
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
In the 4-DoF case, the model response to a varying initial Sg with a fixed ToF, is quasi-linear
and also exhibits a quite similar magnitude of the delta variation of Sg as the Litz and B&R
models.
The 4-DoF (Modified Point-Mass, Lieske & Reiter, 1966) provides an estimate of the Yaw of
Repose. This model considers the bullet rolling motion around its longitudinal axis of
symmetry, called spinning motion. Therefore, this model presents four degrees of freedom:
three translational coordinates for describing position and one for angular speed.
Some may argue that the underlying phenomena calls for a more elaborated multi-
parameter analysis and while the concept is right, we chose to perform a single parameter
analysis in order to compare to the Litz model which is a simple 2D model and as such does
not relate the influence of one parameter over the other as the bullet goes down range,
namely the aerodynamic coefficients.
January/2017
Sierra 168 Intl. / Sierra 175 SMK / Sierra 220 SMK
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1000 1500 2000 1000 1500 2000 1000 1500 2000
B&R Hornady 4DOF Litz
The Spin Drift is expressed inches, while each bullet is compared with the three different
estimators, and grouped at 1000, 1500 and 2000 yards, which are typical ranges for
Extreme Long Range shooting.
The Litz estimator does fair work, given its simple inputs, but its reliability is dictated by
the underlying aerodynamics characteristics of the bullet, which are not accounted for in
this simple linear approach.
Consequently, as soon as the bullet does not exhibit certain properties that cannot be
encompassed by Sg alone, its predictive accuracy is decidedly affected. In general terms, the
Litz model tends to over predict SD in a significant way.
January/2017
Berger 215 Hybrid / Hornady .338 285 BTHP
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1000 1500 2000 1000 1500 2000
As can be appreciated, as the range increases, the difference among the estimators becomes
larger. The practical side of this is that the correct method is of paramount importance
when dealing with Extreme Long Range shooting.
January/2017
Sierra 168gr International / SD inches / range in yards
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900
Sierra 175gr SMK / SD inches / range in yards
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900
January/2017
Boatright 173gr ULD / SD inches / range in yards
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900
Litz B&R
Sierra 220gr SMK / SD inches /range in yards
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900
January/2017
Closing Summary
Taken together, the implications of Eq. 8 and Eq. 19 determine the bullet and rifle
characteristics which affect the size of the horizontal spin-drift SD(t) which will be seen in
flat firing at a long-range target.
First, we see from Eq. 8 that SD(t) displacement is always proportional to the bullet’s
DROP(t) in distance units from the projected axis of the bore during firing.
This implies that modern lighter-weight “flat shooting” bullets fired at higher muzzle
velocities V(0) and retaining more of that velocity farther downrange (higher ballistic
coefficient, lower drag bullets) will produce much less spin-drift SD(t) at any target
distance compared to slower, higher-drag bullets. That is, SD(t) is roughly proportional to
time-of-flight t to the target distance.
Second, according to Eq. 19, the size of the scale factor ScF, and thence the size of the spin-
drift SD(t), varies directly with the “potential ballistic drag force” q(t)* ρ* 2(t)*S/2 in
pounds. The ambient atmospheric density ρ varies with shooting conditions.
The rifle bullet’s retained elocity V(t) depends upon its muzzle velocity V(0), its mass m,
and the integrated drag function CDα of that bullet. The bullet’s cross-sectional area S =
π*d2/4 aries with the square of the bullet’s caliber d.
Third, the spin-drift SD(t) of the bullet is proportional to its yaw-of-repose angle βR(t)
throughout its flight:
βR(t) (2π*g/t)∫[ω2(t)*V(t)]-1 dt
Both the coning rate ω2(t) and the forward velocity V(t) of the bullet always gradually
decrease, continually increasing βR(t) throughout the bullet’s flight. The coning rate ω2(t) is
determined by the bullet’s fixed inertial ratio Iy/Ix and by the remaining spin-rate ω(t) and
slowly increasing gyroscopic stability Sg of the flying bullet.
The forward velocity V(t) of the flying bullet depends on its launch velocity V(0) and its
coefficient of drag profile.
The yaw-of-repose attitude angle βR(t) is increased for bullets having larger numerical
Iy/Ix ratios and higher initial stability Sg, but βR(t) is decreased by using faster twist-rate
barrels and higher muzzle velocities V(0) to achieve that higher gyroscopic stability Sg.
Fourth, the spin-drift SD(t) is directly proportional to the small-yaw coefficient of lift CLβ(t)
of the bullet. Very-low-drag (VLD) and ultra-low-drag (ULD) bullet designs usually have
correspondingly reduced coefficient-of-lift functions at all supersonic airspeeds.
January/2017
Fifth, and lastly, the spin-drift SD(t) of the bullet is inversely proportional to the weight Wt
(or mass m) of that bullet.
All else being equal, bullets made with lower average material densities, such as turned
brass bullets, will weigh less and will suffer greater spin-drift.
These five SD effects combine multiplicatively in this analysis.
Some bullet and rifle design parameters recur in several of these different SD effects, and
not always working in the same direction.
As modern long-range rifles and their bullets seem to be evolving toward lighter-weight,
smaller-caliber, lower-drag bullets fired at higher muzzle velocities, these related
incremental variations in design parameters combine algebraically to reduce the spin-drift
SD occurring on long-range targets.
Disclaimers & Notices

The findings in this report are not to be construed as an official position by any individual
or organization, unless so designated by other authorized documents.
Citation of manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an official endorsement or
approval of the use thereof.
Free and public distribution of this document is unrestricted and encouraged.
January/2017

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Calculating Yaw of Repose and Spin Drift

James A. Boatright & Gustavo F. Ruiz

FIGURE: Extreme TDC and BDC Positions of Coning Bullet

CM erodynamic erturning Moment Coef icient

I xial Moment of Inertia

ullet pin ate

elocity with respect of ind

The horizontal spin-drift SD which we observe in long-range shooting is due to a

I. We fit an exponential tangent angle function βT(t) to extracted velocity-ratio

IV. We reformulate the classic aeroballistic Yaw of Repose angle as βR πPG/M,

βR(t) = K/[V2(t)*CLβ(t)] (50)

K ( cF/0.3 132)*[ t/(ρ* /2)] (51)

SUM/Target ky Ratios: 0.678195 0.67989 0.680173

V0=Launch velocity (FPS): 2800.00 2600.07 3200.00 2660.00 2630.00

Bullet Weight (grains) 168.0 175.1600 173.0 175.0 185.0

DROP from Bore Axis at 1000

Berger 215gr Hybrid - SD (inches) with a varying Sg and fixed TOF

Berger 215gr Hybrid - SD (inches) with a varying TOF and fixed Sg

Hornady 178 BTHP - SD (Inches) with a varying Sg and fixed TOF

B&R Hornady 4DOF Litz

B&R Hornady 4DOF Litz

B&R Hornady 4DOF Litz

Sierra 175gr SMK / SD inches / range in yards

B&R Hornady 4DOF Litz

Sierra 220gr SMK / SD inches /range in yards

B&R Hornady 4DOF Litz

Disclaimers & Notices

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K ( cF/0.3 132)[ t/(ρ /2)] (51)