YP Poll MS Statewide Survey Analysis

SURVEY ANALYSIS
TO: Y’ALL POLITICS

FROM: ROBERT COON
SUBJECT: MS STATEWIDE SURVEY – JUNE 2019
DATE: 6/25/19
Impact Management Group conducted a statewide public opinion survey among 610 likely General Elec-
tion voters in the State of Mississippi between June 10-14, 2019. Y’all Politics identified Primary and
General Election matchups in the race for Governor as of particular interest to its readers. Those results
are included in the following polling analysis document and corresponding slides.
Methodology
The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.96% unless otherwise noted. 56.23% of respondents were con-
tacted via landline telephone, and 43.77% were contacted by cell phone.
Q1 and Q2 were screening questions with 100% of respondents identifying as registered to vote and
94.59% designating themselves as “Very Likely” to vote in the November 2019 General Election.
The survey also included a question to screen Republican primary voters, capturing 354 respondents. The
Republican ballot test for the office of Governor has a margin of error of +/- 5.29%. Results have been
weighted to adjust for age.
Right Direction / Wrong Track
“Overall, would you say things in Mississippi are headed in the right direction, or have they got-
ten off on the wrong track?
49.17% of Mississippi voters believe the state is headed in the right direction, with 31.18% saying things
are on the wrong track. Self-identified Republican voters believe things are headed in the right direction
at 65% (16% wrong track), while the majority of Democrats believe the state is on the wrong track (52%).
Independents are more positive on the direction of the state (47% to 37%). There is a noticeable gender
gap between men and women on their outlook of the state with men at 61% to 23% and women at 38%
to 39%.
Primary Preference
“Thinking about the August 2019 Primary Elections, would you say you are likely to cast your
vote in the Republican Primary or the Democratic Primary?”
Republican 56.46%
Democratic 36.33%
Neither 3.14%
Undecided /Don’t Know 4.07%
56% of voters surveyed indicated they would vote in the Republican Primary election. Of those who se-
lected either the Republican or Democratic primary, 62.8% indicated they would vote Republican, which
is consistent with turnout percentages in recent elections in Mississippi. The Republican primary is the
primary of choice for voters over the age of 35, white voters (82%), and Independents (49%). 65% of men
indicated they would vote in the Republican primary compared to only 52% of women. Notably, 65% of
voters choosing the Democratic primary are women, which reinforces the gender gap present on several
questions in this survey.
GOP Governor Primary

“If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates
were Tate Reeves, Bill Waller, Jr., and Robert Foster, for whom would you vote (ROTATE)? And
is that (DEFINITELY/PROBABLY)?
Tate Reeves 50.33%

Bill Waller, Jr. 19.48%
Robert Foster 8.82%
Don’t Know/Unsure 27.65%
Tate Reeves is in command of the GOP primary race for Governor. Reeves is winning voters that view the
state as heading in the right direction while Bill Waller, Jr. is making in-roads with wrong track voters.
Waller, Jr.’s support is driven by voters who are not the traditional GOP base, including independents and
moderates. Waller, Jr. overperforms with voters over the age of 65 (28%).
Governor’s Race – General Election 1

“In November, Mississippi will hold general elections for state offices, including Governor.
2
If the election for Governor was being held today, and the candidates were: Tate Reeves, the
Republican, Jim Hood, the Democrat, and David Singletary, the Independent, for whom would
you vote?
Tate Reeves 48.00%

Jim Hood 35.78%
David Singletary 4.03%
Tate Reeves leads the ballot in the race for Governor. Reeves leads among Right Direction voters (48%)
while Hood leads among Wrong Track voters (62%). Hood has made some in-roads with Republican and
Republican-leaning voters winning 9% of GOP primary voters. Hood has nearly full support of Democrats
as well (85%). Independents are evenly split between the major party candidates at 37%. Men prefer
Reeves by a 25 point margin (54% to 29%) while women are split (42% to 43%). Reeves’ lead is driven by
a higher volume of white conservative voters, however Hood could remain competitive into the fall if he
continues chipping away at Republican leaning demographics. The entrance of David Singletary into the
race will likely erode a small percentage of votes from Hood, with no real effect on Reeves.
Governor’s Race – General Election 2

“In November, Mississippi will hold general elections for state offices, including Governor.
If the election for Governor was being held today, and the candidates were: Bill Waller, Jr., the
Republican, Jim Hood, the Democrat, and David Singletary, the Independent, for whom would
you vote?
Bill Waller, Jr. 43.29%

Jim Hood 35.99%
David Singletary 3.89%
Bill Waller, Jr. as an alternative Republican candidate for Governor results in a net drop on the Republican
side (-5%) with a corresponding increase in the undecided vote. Waller, Jr. performs better against Hood
in only one notable demographic - Independent voters (47% to 27%).
Demographics
AGE *weighted RACE
18-34 8.00% White 66.64%
35-49 18.00% Hispanic 0.71%
3
50-64 34.00% Black 26.71%
65+ 40.00% Native American 1.66%
Asian American 0.28%
GENDER Other 2.12%
Male 48.86% Don’t Know/Refused 1.88%
Female 51.14%
IDEOLOGY PARTY
Very Conservative 37.94% Republican 50.73%
Somewhat Conserva-
20.43% Democrat 28.42%
tive
Moderate 24.75% Independent 12.70%
Somewhat Liberal 5.97% Something Else 5.43%
Very Liberal 3.61%
Don’t Know/Refused 7.31%

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SURVEY ANALYSIS

TO: Y’ALL POLITICS

Right Direction / Wrong Track

GOP Governor Primary

Tate Reeves 50.33%

Governor’s Race – General Election 1

Tate Reeves 48.00%

Governor’s Race – General Election 2

Bill Waller, Jr. 43.29%

AGE *weighted RACE

18-34 8.00% White 66.64%

35-49 18.00% Hispanic 0.71%

65+ 40.00% Native American 1.66%

Asian American 0.28%

GENDER Other 2.12%

Male 48.86% Don’t Know/Refused 1.88%

Very Conservative 37.94% Republican 50.73%

Moderate 24.75% Independent 12.70%

Somewhat Liberal 5.97% Something Else 5.43%

Very Liberal 3.61%

Don’t Know/Refused 7.31%

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