Arvind Fashions IC ICICI Sec 19jun19
Arvind Fashions IC ICICI Sec 19jun19
Arvind Fashions IC ICICI Sec 19jun19
750
650
specialty retail increased from Rs150mn in FY18 to Rs430mn in FY19 mainly due to
550
higher losses in Unlimited. Improving profitability of beauty format Sephora and a
foreign brand GAP is unlikely to offset losses of Unlimited over next two years, in our
450
view. ‘Emerging brands’ (e.g. Calvin Klein, Aeropostale, Ed Hardy, The Children’s
Mar-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
May-19
Place) are yet to attain scale and contribute meaningfully to overall EBITDA.
Net debt unlikely to increase from FY19 level of Rs8bn over the next two years
as management focuses on improving cash flow. We expect ARVINDFA to generate
OCF of Rs3bn (after factoring-in Rs2bn working capital release from exit of sub-
scale emerging brands) which should suffice its capex requirements over FY20-21E.
In the past, ARVINDFA’s OCF has not been able to fund growth, which, therefore,
has been funded by parent Arvind's cash flow, private equity investments and debt.
Key triggers: Acceleration in ‘power brands’ growth, sharp improvement in RoCE.
Key risks: Inventory obsolescence, lower consumption growth.
Market Cap Rs44.6bn/US$637mn Year to Mar 2018 2019 2020E 2021E
Bloomberg ARVINDFA IN Revenue (Rs mn) 42,189 46,439 49,627 55,354
Shares Outstanding (mn) 58.6 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,294 2,881 3,057 3,924
Research Analysts: 52-week Range (Rs) 1059/620 Net Income (Rs mn) 145 166 165 850
Krupal Maniar, CFA Free Float (%) 64.0 % Chg YoY NA 14.6 (0.6) 415.0
krupal.maniar@icicisecurities.com FII (%) 18.0 P/E (x) 306.2 267.1 268.7 52.2
+91 22 6637 7254 Daily Volume (US$'000) NA CEPS (Rs) 26.5 29.3 31.0 45.1
Dharmesh Shah
Absolute Return 3m (%) 0.3 EV/E (x) 22.3 18.1 17.0 13.3
shah.dharmesh@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6637 7480 Absolute Return 12m (%) NA Dividend Yield (%) - - - -
Sensex Return 3m (%) 2.8 RoCE (%) 5.0 6.7 6.9 9.1
Sensex Return 12m (%) 10.6 RoE (%) 1.6 1.5 1.5 7.2
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENT
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Revenue &
Growth
EBITDA
ROCE
* One Time Brand Exit Costs
The stock has corrected ~28% in last two months factoring this concern and now
trades at a reasonable 13.3x FY21E EV/E. We believe return of mid-teen growth along
with improved profitability, cashflow and return ratios would be required for any
meaningful rerating, which is unlikely in the next two years.
Table 1: Valuations based on 15x FY21E EV/E
(Rs mn)
Target EV/ EBITDA multiple (x) 15
Target EV (Rs mn) 57,962
Net debt / (cash) (Rs mn) 8,076
Target value (Rs mn) 49,886
No. of shares (mn) 58
Target price per share (Rs) 860
Source: I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
ARVINDFA has relatively higher share in the growing casual/denim wear segment
through its dominant portfolio of brands, which makes it the numero uno player in the
segment.
Chart 4: One in five casual wears bought in premium branded Chart 5: Key competitors
men’s casual/denim market is from ARVINDFA portfolio
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Chart 6: Growth in casuals / western wear segment to Chart 7: Premium casuals/ denim
outperform formal wear segment leadership revenues grew 20% YoY
in FY19
Category 2014-2025
(US$ bn) 2014 2020 2025 CAGR
Sales
Men’s formals 3.6 5.0 9.0 ~10-15%
+20%
FY18 FY19
Innerwear++ 1.6 4.1 8.3 ~15%
Management has identified opportunities for long-term growth potential in the growing
kidswear, innerwear and beauty & personal care market.
Chart 8: Kidswear grew 25% in Chart 9: Accelerating USPA Chart 10: Sephora plans to
FY19 innerwear growth expand stores and add online to
sustain high growth
+25%
+54% +35%
Sales
Sales
Sales
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Besides, ARVINDFA differentiates its portfolio in three key categories: ‘power brands’,
‘emerging brands’ and speciality retail which are at different stages of maturity, margin
profiles and return ratios.
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Chart 11: Multiple growth opportunities through Chart 12: Powerful platforms drive growth with
category/ distribution expansion improved operational efficiency
Power
Brands
Specialty
Retail
Emerging
Brands
Closure Store Sq Ft
Store Count Sq Ft (Lacs) Additions
Count (Lacs)
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
The ‘power brands’ are expected to remain at forefront as: i) they are among the top
Indian apparel brands; ii) have strong growth potential with new stores viable in short
span; and iii) enjoy significant sourcing leverage.
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
In addition to the foregoing, the ‘power brands’ portfolio has strong distribution network
comprising 1,018 EBOs with 0.89mn-sqft space as at FY19-end and also sells through
MBOs and department stores. ARVINDFA aims to leverage its wide distribution reach
to launch and scale-up new product categories.
Table 4: Significant store expansion opportunity Chart 15: Online sales of ‘power brands’ grew
for ‘power brands’ in small towns significantly in FY19 on low base
+48% +331%
FY19
Cities Gr%
Univ.
Sales
Cities Contr.
Tier
(Stores)
II/III
Management has recently decided to exit some of the customers with long credit
cycle. Accordingly, the company’s revenue growth was down by 8% YoY in Q4FY19.
Besides, investments and ad spend will likely continue due to category and network
expansion. Accordingly, margins are likely to remain range-bound over the next two
years, in our view. However, there can be an improvement over the medium term led
by acceleration in growth.
We expect ‘power brands’ to register 9.3% revenue and 8.5% EBITDA CAGR over
FY19-FY21E with EBITDA margin likely to remain flat over the same period. Cashflow
from ‘power brands’, especially USPA, will be crucial to fund the company’s growth.
Chart 16: We expect revenue from ‘power brands’ Chart 17: … and EBITDA to grow at 8.5% CAGR
to grow at 9.3% CAGR over FY19-FY21E… with flat margins as investments for new
category and network expansion continue
2,500
27,500 8.5
2,000
11.0
25,000 8.0 1,500
10.9
1,000 10.5
22,500 7.5
500
20,000 7.0 - 10.0
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
USPA case study: Category and network expansion key to sustainable
growth
Category expansion powering the super brand
USPA is the most successful brand in ARVINDFA’s portfolio with revenues of
>Rs10bn and strong margins (in mid to high teens) and RoCE of >35%. The brand
was launched in 2009 as a men’s casualwear brand accounting for 100% of revenues,
which has been brought down to nearly 50% by FY19 with category expansion in
men’s denim, kidswear, womenswear, innerwear, etc. Going ahead, management
focus will be on diversifying the product portfolio, especially in kidswear, innerwear
and footwear. These categories have potential to increase combined revenues of
>Rs10bn by 2022, as per the management.
Chart 18: USPA expanded into denims, kids and Chart 19: USPA emerges as multi-category play
women segment from 100% mens casualwear with strong presence in causals/denims by FY19
FY14
Women, 4%
Kids, 16%
Mens
casuals,
51%
Chart 20: Combined potential of >Rs10bn Chart 21: USPA potential revenue mix by FY22
revenues by FY22 as per management
FY22
Active , 2% Footwear,
7%
Tailored,
2%
Mens
casuals,
Innerwear, 33%
19%
Women, 2%
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Sustained high growth through network expansion
USPA has seen aggressive network expansion over the past few years with its
presence increased to >125 cities and more than 325 stores in FY19 against 95 cities
and 206 stores in FY15. Besides, its presence in departmental stores / MBOs has
increased from 429 counters in FY15 to >1,000 in FY19.
Trade Online
Dept. Stores Retail
Chart 23: Flying Machine department stores’ Chart 24: Flying Machine online revenues have
including value fashion revenues grew 50% YoY in doubled YoY in FY19 on low base
FY19
1.5x 2x
x
x
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Management plans to exit sub-scale non-strategic brands (likely four brands – Izod,
Elle, Gant, Nautica) in H1FY20 and targets to improve the segment’s profitability and
return ratios. These non-strategic brands together contributed revenues of ~Rs2bn
and were marginally loss making in FY19. We believe exiting these brands may lead
to one-time exit costs in FY20E, but will help improve profitability going forward and
free up capital and management bandwidth. Besides, the management is also looking
to de-risk the business model from retail dependence and making it more wholesale
and online driven to increase profitability.
In the core portfolio, the management has identified four key brands – Calvin Klein,
Aeropostale, Ed Hardy and The Children’s Place – as focus areas. We estimate these
brands fetched revenues of ~Rs4.5bn-5bn with marginal profit in FY19.
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Chart 26: We expect revenues in FY20E to Chart 27: We expect EBITDA loss to further
decline 14% YoY on exit of non-strategic brands widen in FY20E on one-time exit loss
(Rs mn)
(2.0)
(Rs mn)
(150)
6,500 0.0 (200) (3.0)
(250) (4.0)
6,000 -5.0
(300)
(4.9) (5.0)
(350)
5,500 -10.0 (5.6)
(400) (6.0)
(14.0)
FY18
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
5,000 -15.0
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
This segment has witnessed multiple headwinds in the past – such as: i) Unlimited
unable to achieve profitability despite being in the market for more than two decades;
ii) imposition of CVD and lack of local sourcing for GAP, etc. ARVINDFA has started
local sourcing coupled with increased wholesale component for GAP, which led to
50% YoY revenue growth in FY19 after turning EBITDA-positive in Q4FY19. While
Sephora became profitable from its second year of operations and continues to
witness strong revenue growth.
EBITDA loss in speciality retail has significantly increased from Rs150mn in FY18 to
Rs430mn in FY19 mainly because of increased losses in Unlimited. Overall decline in
consumption impacting the value retail business coupled with increased ad spend led
to significant increase in losses of Unlimited.
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
We believe, given the lack of a differentiating value proposition, Unlimited is likely to
face tough competition that may impact its profitability and return ratios. Management
has recently decided to stall its aggressive growth plans (earlier targeted 20-25 store
additions p.a.), consolidate existing stores and target breakeven by FY20-end. With
ongoing investments and adspends, improving profitability of Sephora and GAP is
unlikely to setoff losses of Unlimited over the next two years, in our view.
We estimate speciality retail portfolio revenues to grow at 16% CAGR over FY19-
FY21E led by >25% revenue CAGR in GAP and Sephora on low base, network
expansion and increasing contribution from online portal while Unlimited is expected to
grow in low double digits over the same period. We expect the portfolio to reach near-
breakeven with limited margin improvement in Sephora on continued investment for
store expansion and online portal. We also expect GAP to turn profitable in FY21E
with increasing scale, but Unlimited is unlikely to reach breakeven before FY23E.
Accordingly, we estimate EBITDA margin loss to decline from 3.9% in FY19 to 1% by
FY21E.
Chart 28: We expect specialty retail revenues to Chart 29: …while we expect EBITDA loss margin
grow at 16% CAGR over FY19-FY21E led by >25% to narrow down to ~1% by FY21E
revenues CAGR in GAP and Sephora…
15,000 20.0 - -
16.5 16.4 (0.5)
15.3 (100)
16.0 (1.0)
12,500
(1.6) (1.5)
(200) (1.0)
(Rs mn)
10,000 (2.5)
(300)
8.0 (3.0)
(400) (3.5)
7,500 (3.9) (4.0)
4.0
(500) (4.5)
FY18
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
5,000 0.0
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Chart 30: GAP turned EBITDA-positive in Q4FY19 Chart 31: …increasing component of high-margin
led by increasing local sourcing and… wholesale business
FY18 FY19
0.5x
-3.0x -3.0x
Wholesale
-4.0x
Online
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Retail
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
ARVINDFA’s cash conversion cycle has doubled YoY to 50 days in FY19 mainly led
by increase in inventory days (as Q4FY19 sales have been impacted) and elongated
receivables days mainly pertaining to wholesale channels. While peers have
registered marginal increase in cash conversion cycle over the same period.
ARVINDFA management has highlighted that it intends to optimise its working capital
days and focus on improving cashflow by exiting unduly long credit trade channels and
sub-scale ‘emerging brands’.
Chart 32: ARVINDFA cash conversion cycle* Chart 33: …while peer ABFRL have registered
have doubled YoY to 50 days in FY19 on increase marginal increase in the same to 14 days in FY19
in inventory days and elongated credit cycle over the same period*
200 200
150 150
(Days)
(Days)
100 100
50 50
- -
Inventory Receivables Payables Cash Inventory Receivables Payables Cash
conversion conversion
Source: Company data, I-Sec research; *adjusted for speciality retail Source: Company data, I-Sec research; *adjusted for Pantaloons
revenues revenues
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
In the past, ARVINDFA’s OCF has not been able to fund growth, which therefore has
been funded by parent Arvind's cash flow, equity dilution and debt.
Chart 34: ARVINDFA cashflow unable to fund Chart 35: OCF generations in next two years will
growth over FY17-FY19; the same has been be utilised to fund working capital and capex
funded by parent, equity dilution and debt
2,000
(Rs mn)
(4,000)
-
(6,000)
(8,000) (2,000)
(6,548)
(10,000) (4,000)
(12,000) (6,000)
(5,874) (12,422)
(14,000)
OCF Wcap Capex FCF (8,000)
blockage FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Chart 36: …accordingly net debt to remain flat at Chart 37: Return ratios may remain muted in
Rs8bn over FY19-FY21E FY20E and then improve
(%)
2.0
7,500 4.0
(x)
3.1
2.9
2.6 -
2.1 3.0
7,000
2.0 (2.0)
6,500
1.0 (4.0)
6,000 - (6.0)
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Key assumptions
We expect company’s revenues to grow at 9% CAGR over FY19-FY21E led by 9%/
16% revenue CAGR in power brands and specialty retail respectively. While emerging
brands revenues are likely to decline by 2% CAGR over FY19-FY21E on exit of non-
strategic brands; core emerging brands revenue are expected to grow at 18% CAGR
over the same period.
We expect EBITDA to grow at 17% CAGR over FY19-FY21 with EBITDA margin likely
to increase by ~90bps to 7.1% by FY21E. We expect power brands margin broadly to
remain stable, emerging brands portfolio to turn marginally profitable by FY21E while
losses in specialty retail (especially Unlimited) to narrow down over next two years.
Table 6: We expect revenues/ EBITDA to grow at 9%/ 17% CAGR over FY19-FY21
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Revenues (Rs mn)
Power brands 25,660 27,970 30,492 33,413
Emerging brands 7,010 7,370 6,342 7,053
Specialty retail 9,530 11,100 12,794 14,888
Total revenues 42,200 46,440 49,627 55,354
% YoY
Power brands 9.0 9.0 9.6
Emerging brands 5.1 (14.0) 11.2
Specialty retail 16.5 15.3 16.4
Total revenues 10.0 6.9 11.5
% YoY
Power brands 23.3 6.9 10.0
Emerging brands NA NA NA
Specialty retail NA NA NA
Total EBITDA 25.2 6.1 28.4
Margin (%)
Power brands 10.9 12.3 12.1 12.1
Emerging brands (4.9) (1.8) (5.6) 0.4
Specialty retail (1.6) (3.9) (2.1) (1.0)
Total 5.5 6.2 6.2 7.1
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Key risks
Threat from e-commerce players
As e-commerce players provide deep discounting, they impact profitability of the
premium players. ARVINDFA plans to counter this by providing facilities through
online portals though e-commerce players too have lately started focusing on
profitability. However, continuation of deep discounting strategy on e-commerce
platforms may pose a risk to our estimates.
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Company background
ARVINDFA is India's no. 1 casual and denim player, a lifestyle powerhouse with a
strong portfolio of fashion brands catering to consumers across the sub-categories
and price points. With a host of more than 28 renowned brands, both international and
indigenous, like USPA, Arrow, GAP, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, Flying Machine and
Sephora, it has presence across lifestyle brands, value fashion and prestige beauty.
These brands retailed in over 1,300 standalone stores and about 5,000 departmental
and multi-brand stores in over 192 cities and towns across India.
ARVINDFA was demerged from Arvind Ltd. w.e.f. 30th Nov’18. Post receipt of various
statutory approvals, it has got listed on both stock exchanges on 8th Mar’19. Swap
ratio for demerger was one equity shares for every five equity shares held in Arvind
Ltd.
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Financial summary
Table 8: Profit and Loss statement Table 11: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) (Rs mn, year ending March 31)
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Operating Income (Sales) 42,189 46,439 49,627 55,354 Operating Cashflow 1,410 1,744 1,857 2,671
Operating Expenses 39,895 43,557 46,571 51,430 Working Capital changes (3,040) (1,314) (143) (1,424)
EBITDA 2,294 2,881 3,057 3,924 Capital Commitments (1,701) (1,695) (1,400) (1,400)
% margin 5.4 6.2 6.2 7.1 Net Operating FCF (3,330) (1,265) 314 (154)
Depreciation & Amortisation 1,389 1,532 1,635 1,763 Investing Activities 211 41 51 60
Gross Interest 913 1,262 1,253 1,211 Issue of Share Capital 3,000 0 - -
Other Income 124 41 51 60 Buyback of shares - - - -
Recurring PBT 116 129 219 1,010 Inc(Dec) in Borrowings 138 908 - -
Add: Extraordinaries - - - - Dividend paid - - - -
Less: Taxes (14) (86) - 101 Others - 151 (54) (59)
Minority interest (16) 49 54 59 Extraordinary Items - - - -
Net Income (Reported) 145 166 165 850 Chg. in Cash & Bank 18 (164) 311 (152)
Recurring Net Income 145 166 165 850 Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Table 12: Key ratios
Table 9: Balance sheet (Rs mn, year ending March 31)
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Per Share Data (Rs)
Assets EPS(Basic) 2.5 2.9 2.8 14.7
Total Current Assets 24,068 27,062 27,166 29,946 Diluted Recurring EPS 2.5 2.9 2.8 14.7
Current Liab. & Prov. 12,838 14,683 14,332 15,840 Diluted Recurring CEPS 26.5 29.3 31.0 45.1
Net Current Assets 11,229 12,380 12,834 14,106 Dividend per share - - - -
Investments of which 0 0 0 0 Book Value 183 195 198 212
Strategic/Group 0 0 0 0
Marketable - - - - Growth Ratios (% YoY)
Net Fixed Assets* 5,326 5,489 5,254 4,891 Operating Income 26.5 10.1 6.9 11.5
of which EBITDA 46.1 25.6 6.1 28.4
Capital Work-in-Progress 6 57 57 57 Recurring Net Income NA 14.8 (0.6) 415.0
Deferred tax assets 2,362 2,692 2,692 2,692 Diluted Recurring EPS NA 14.6 (0.6) 415.0
Total Assets 18,918 20,561 20,780 21,689 Diluted Recurring CEPS 56.6 10.5 6.0 45.2
of which cash & cash
284 121 432 279 Valuation Ratios (x)
equivalents
P/E 303.5 264.8 266.3 51.7
Liabilities P/CEPS 28.6 25.9 24.4 16.8
Borrowings 7,447 8,355 8,355 8,355 P/BV 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6
Minority Interest 873 912 965 1,024 EV / EBITDA 22.3 18.1 17.0 13.3
Equity Share Capital 232 232 232 232 EV / Operating Income 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
Face value per share (Rs) 4 4 4 4 EV / Operating FCF (73.2) 121.4 30.2 41.7
Reserves & Surplus 10,366 11,062 11,227 12,078
Net Worth 10,598 11,294 11,459 12,310 Operating Ratios (%)
Total Liabilities 18,918 20,561 20,780 21,689 Raw Material / Sales 46.9 49.3 49.4 49.7
Source: Company data, I-Sec research SG&A expenses / Sales 28.6 25.6 25.3 24.2
Other Income / PBT 107.5 32.1 23.1 6.0
Effective Tax Rate (11.7) (66.8) - 10.0
Table 10: Quarterly trend NWC / Total Assets 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Inventory (x) 4.5 5.4 5.1 5.4
Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Receivables (days) 50 65 62 55
Net sales 10,068 12,091 12,590 11,690 Payable (days) 83 91 89 82
% growth (YoY) NA NA 17.2 1.5 D/E Ratio (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Recurring EBITDA 403 799 827 852
Margin (%) 4.0 6.6 6.6 7.3 Profitability Ratios (%)
Other income 11 19 11 - Rec. Net Income Margins 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.5
Extraordinaries Inc / (Loss) - - - - RoCE 5.0 6.7 6.9 9.1
Recurring Net Income (159) 60 69 196 RoNW 1.6 1.5 1.5 7.2
Source: Company data Dividend Payout - - - -
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Arvind Fashions Ltd., June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Charts
Chart 1: Management expects sharp improvement in RoCE over coming years ................. 3
Chart 2: ARVINDFA has built a diversified portfolio across categories and price points ..... 4
Chart 3: Experience of successfully launching brands across all formats ............................ 4
Chart 4: One in five casual wears bought in premium branded men’s casual/denim market
is from ARVINDFA portfolio ............................................................................................ 4
Chart 5: Key competitors ...................................................................................................... 4
Chart 6: Growth in casuals / western wear segment to outperform formal wear segment ... 5
Chart 7: Premium casuals/ denim leadership revenues grew 20% YoY in FY19 ................. 5
Chart 8: Kidswear grew 25% in FY19 ................................................................................... 5
Chart 9: Accelerating USPA innerwear growth ..................................................................... 5
Chart 10: Sephora plans to expand stores and add online to sustain high growth .............. 5
Chart 11: Multiple growth opportunities through category/ distribution expansion ............... 6
Chart 12: Powerful platforms drive growth with improved operational efficiency ................. 6
Chart 13: ARVINDFA enabled by powerful existing platforms ............................................. 6
Chart 14: Strong distribution footprint across portfolio ......................................................... 6
Chart 15: Online sales of ‘power brands’ grew significantly in FY19 on low base ............... 8
Chart 16: We expect revenue from ‘power brands’ to grow at 9.3% CAGR over FY19-
FY21E… .......................................................................................................................... 8
Chart 17: … and EBITDA to grow at 8.5% CAGR with flat margins as investments for new
category and network expansion continue...................................................................... 8
Chart 18: USPA expanded into denims, kids and women segment from 100% mens
casualwear ...................................................................................................................... 9
Chart 19: USPA emerges as multi-category play with strong presence in causals/denims
by FY19 ........................................................................................................................... 9
Chart 20: Combined potential of >Rs10bn revenues by FY22 as per management ............ 9
Chart 21: USPA potential revenue mix by FY22................................................................... 9
Chart 22: USPA multi-channel presence supports growth ................................................. 10
Chart 23: Flying Machine department stores’ including value fashion revenues grew 50%
YoY in FY19 .................................................................................................................. 10
Chart 24: Flying Machine online revenues have doubled YoY in FY19 on low base ......... 10
Chart 25: Key emerging brands portfolio ............................................................................ 11
Chart 26: We expect revenues in FY20E to decline 14% YoY on exit of non-strategic
brands ........................................................................................................................... 12
Chart 27: We expect EBITDA loss to further widen in FY20E on one-time exit loss.......... 12
Chart 28: We expect specialty retail revenues to grow at 16% CAGR over FY19-FY21E led
by >25% revenues CAGR in GAP and Sephora… ....................................................... 14
Chart 29: …while we expect EBITDA loss margin to narrow down to ~1% by FY21E ...... 14
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Arvind Fashions Ltd, June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Chart 30: GAP turned EBITDA-positive in Q4FY19 led by increasing local sourcing and…
...................................................................................................................................... 14
Chart 31: …increasing component of high-margin wholesale business ............................. 14
Chart 32: ARVINDFA cash conversion cycle* have doubled YoY to 50 days in FY19 on
increase in inventory days and elongated credit cycle ................................................. 15
Chart 33: …while peer ABFRL have registered marginal increase in the same to 14 days in
FY19 over the same period* ......................................................................................... 15
Chart 34: ARVINDFA cashflow unable to fund growth over FY17-FY19; the same has been
funded by parent, equity dilution and debt .................................................................... 16
Chart 35: OCF generations in next two years will be utilised to fund working capital and
capex ............................................................................................................................. 16
Chart 36: …accordingly net debt to remain flat at Rs8bn over FY19-FY21E ..................... 16
Chart 37: Return ratios may remain muted in FY20E and then improve ............................ 16
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Arvind Fashions Ltd., June 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
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