4 Factors That Shape Market Trends

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4 Factors That Shape Market Trends

Trends are what allow traders and investors to capture profits. Whether on a short- or long-term
time frame, in an overall trending market or a range of environment, the flow from one price to
another is what creates profits and losses. There are four major factors that cause both long-
term trends and short-term fluctuations. These factors are government, international
transactions, speculation and expectation and supply and demand.
Major Market Forces
Learning how these major factors shape trends over the long term can provide insight into how
future trends may occur. Here are the four major factors:
Government
Government holds much sway over the free markets. The fiscal and monetary policies that
governments and their central banks put in place have a profound effect on the financial
marketplace. By increasing and decreasing interest rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve can effectively
slow or attempt to speed up growth within the country. This is called monetary policy. If
government spending increases or contracts, this is known as fiscal policy and can be used to
help ease unemployment and/or stabilize prices. By altering interest rates and the amount of
dollars available on the open market, governments can change how much investment flows into
and out of the country.
International Transactions
The flow of funds between countries effects the strength of a country's economy and its currency.
The more money that is leaving a country, the weaker the country's economy and currency.
Countries that predominantly export, whether physical goods or services, are continually bringing
money into their countries. This money can then be reinvested and can stimulate the financial
markets within those countries.
Speculation and Expectation
Speculation and expectation are integral parts of the financial system. Consumers, investors and
politicians all hold different views about where they think the economy will go in the future and
that effects how they act today. Expectation of future action is dependent on current acts and
shapes both current and future trends. Sentiment indicators are commonly used to gauge how
certain groups are feeling about the current economy. Analysis of these indicators as well as
other forms of fundamental and technical analysis can create a bias or expectation of future price
rates and trend direction.
Supply and Demand
Supply and demand for products, services, currencies and other investments creates a push-pull
dynamic in prices. Prices and rates change as supply or demand changes. If something is in
demand and supply begins to shrink, prices will rise. If supply increases beyond current demand,
prices will fall. If supply is relatively stable, prices can fluctuate higher and lower as demand
increases or decreases.
These factors can cause both short- and long-term fluctuations in the market, but it is also
important to understand how all these elements come together to create trends. While all of
these major factors are categorically different, they are closely linked to one another.
Government mandates can effect international transactions, which play a role in speculation and
changes in supply and demand can play a role in each of these other factors.
Formative Test

What is the difference between a trend and a fad? Have your answer through the acronym:

T-

R-

E-

N-

D-

F-

A-

D-

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