Buku Stability
Buku Stability
Buku Stability
DQG'RVDJH)RUPV
6WDELOLW\RI'UXJV
DQG'RVDJH)RUPV
6XPLH<RVKLRND
1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI +HDOWK6FLHQFHV
7RN\R-DSDQ
DQG
9DOHQWLQR-6WHOOD
7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI.DQVDV
/DZUHQFH.DQVDV
.OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV
1HZ<RUN%RVWRQ'RUGUHFKW/RQGRQ0RVFRZ
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG
1RSDUWRIWKLVH%RRNPD\EHUHSURGXFHGRUWUDQVPLWWHGLQDQ\IRUPRUE\DQ\PHDQVHOHFWURQLF
PHFKDQLFDOUHFRUGLQJRURWKHUZLVHZLWKRXWZULWWHQFRQVHQWIURPWKH3XEOLVKHU
&UHDWHGLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVRI$PHULFD
9LVLW.OXZHU2QOLQHDW KWWSZZZNOXZHURQOLQHFRP
DQG.OXZHU
VH%RRNVWRUHDW KWWSZZZHERRNVNOXZHURQOLQHFRP
3UHIDFH
$ WKRURXJK NQRZOHGJH RI WKH FKHPLFDO DQG SK\VLFDO VWDELOLW\ RI GUXJV DQG GRVDJH IRUPV LV
FULWLFDO LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG HYDOXDWLRQ RI SKDUPDFHXWLFDOV $OWKRXJK D YHU\ ODUJH QXPEHU
RI VWXGLHV RQ WKH VXEMHFW RI VWDELOLW\ KDYH DSSHDUHG LQ WKH SULPDU\ SKDUPDFHXWLFDO OLWHUDWXUH
ERRNV RQ WKH VXEMHFW KDYH QRW EHHQ FRPSUHKHQVLYH 7KHUHIRUH UHVHDUFKHUV DQG VWXGHQWV KDYH
KDGWRUHO\RQLQGLYLGXDOSDSHUVIRUDQLQGHSWKDQDO\VLVRIWKHVXEMHFW7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKLV
ERRNLVWREULQJWRJHWKHUDQGDQDO\]HLQDV\VWHPDWLFIDVKLRQVRPHH[DPSOHVUHODWLQJWRWKH
VWDELOLW\RIGUXJVIURPWKHZRUNRIRWKHUVDVZHOODVIURPVWXGLHVWKDWKDYHEHHQSHUIRUPHG
LQWKHODERUDWRULHVRIWKHDXWKRUV
7KLV WH[W LV RUJDQL]HG E\ ILUVW SUHVHQWLQJ WKH PDMRU PHFKDQLVPV FRQWULEXWLQJ WR FKHPLFDO
LQVWDELOLW\IROORZHGE\GLVFXVVLRQRIIDFWRUVDIIHFWLQJGHJUDGDWLRQEDVHGRQNLQHWLFWKHRU\
DQGRIZD\VLQZKLFKSUREOHPDWLFSKDUPDFHXWLFDOSURGXFWVPLJKWEHVWDELOL]HG3UHGLFWLRQV
RIVWDELOLW\DUHFRYHUHGIURPEDVLFWKHRU\WRSUDFWLFDOVROXWLRQV
8QOLNHHDUOLHUERRNVLQZKLFKFKHPLFDOVWDELOLW\SURILOHVDQGWKHHIIHFWVRIIDFWRUVVXFK
DVS+DQGRWKHUFDWDO\WLFFRQWULEXWLRQVRQVLQJOHVXEVWDQFHVZHUHGHVFULEHGH[WHQVLYHO\WKH
SUHVHQWWH[WDWWHPSWVWRWDNH DPRUHJOREDODSSURDFK 6SHFLILFDOO\DQDO\VLV RIWKHIDFWRUV
DIIHFWLQJ GUXJ VWDELOLW\ EDVHG RQ EDVLF NLQHWLF WKHRU\ DOORZHG IRU D VRXQG WKHRUHWLFDO
WUHDWPHQWRIDYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQ)XUWKHUPRUHWKHEDVHVIRUSK\VLFDOGHJUDGDWLRQNLQHWLFV
ZKLFKKDYHJHQHUDOO\EHHQWUHDWHGHPSLULFDOO\DUHDOVRFRYHUHG DQG VRXQGEDVHVIRUWKH
REVHUYDWLRQVDUHDOVRSUHVHQWHGDQGGLVFXVVHG
7KH FKHPLFDO DQG SK\VLFDO VWDELOLW\ RISURWHLQ DQG SHSWLGH GUXJV LV FRQVLGHUHG LQ D
VHSDUDWHFKDSWHURIWKLVERRN$OWKRXJKVRPHQHZHUWH[WVKDYHFRPSUHKHQVLYHO\DGGUHVVHG
WKH GLIILFXOW VXEMHFW RISURWHLQ VWDELOLW\ LW ZDV IHOW WKDW QR GUXJ VWDELOLW\ WH[W ZRXOG EH
FRPSOHWHZLWKRXWWKLVVXEMHFW
'UXJSURGXFWVDUHFRPSOH[PL[WXUHVRIGUXJDQGH[FLSLHQWVDQGDVVXFKWKHLUFKHPLFDO
DQGSK\VLFDO VWDELOLW\ NLQHWLFV DUH FRPSOH[ 7KH FKHPLFDODQGSK\VLFDO VWDELOLW\ RIWKHVH
FRPSOH[ GRVDJH IRUPV VWDUWLQJ ZLWK SUHIRUPXODWLRQ VWXGLHV DQG FRQWLQXLQJ WKURXJK WR
VWXGLHVRIWKHILQDOSURGXFWVLQFOXGLQJWKHUROHRISDFNDJLQJDUHGLVFXVVHG,QIRUPDWLRQRQ
WKH VWDELOLW\ RIQRYHO GUXJ GHOLYHU\ V\VWHPV VXFK DV ELRGHJUDGDEOH PLFURVSKHUHV LV DOVR
LQFOXGHG ZKHUHSRVVLEOH ,VVXHV RITXDOLW\DVVXUDQFH WKHHVWLPDWLRQRIVKHOIOLIH DQGWKH
UHOHYDQWUHJXODWRU\UHTXLUHPHQWVDUHGHVFULEHG7KHPRVWUHFHQWLQIRUPDWLRQRQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
+DUPRQLVHG*XLGHOLQHVIRUVWDELOLW\WHVWLQJLVDOVRSURYLGHGDORQJZLWKDEULHIGLVFXVVLRQ
RQFRQIOLFWVWKDWH[LVWEHWZHHQWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVRIGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHV
Y
YL 3UHIDFH
$V VWDWHG HDUOLHU WKLV ERRN DWWHPSWV WR SUHVHQW D UHDVRQDEO\ V\VWHPDWLF DQG FRPSUHKHQ
VLYH DSSURDFK WR WKH VXEMHFW RI FKHPLFDO DQG SK\VLFDO GUXJ VWDELOLW\ (IIRUWV KDYH DOVR EHHQ
PDGH WR SURYLGH D IDLUO\ FRPSUHKHQVLYH OLVWLQJ RI UHIHUHQFHV WKDW FRXOG EH XVHG E\ WKH UHDGHU
WR DFFHVV WKH SULPDU\ OLWHUDWXUH 2XU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH FKHPLFDO DQG SK\VLFDO VWDELOLW\ RI
GUXJV LQ VROLG GRVDJH IRUPV LV VWLOO TXLWH LQFRPSOHWH DQG JRRG FRPSUHKHQVLYH VWXGLHV RQ WKH
VWDELOLW\ RISURWHLQV DUH RQO\ QRZ SURYLGLQJ WKH W\SH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP ZKLFK WKH SUHGLFWLRQ
RI SK\VLFDO DQG FKHPLFDO VWDELOLW\ RI SURWHLQV PLJKW EH SRVVLEOH $GGLWLRQDOO\ ZH GR QRW
NQRZ ZKDW WKH VWDELOLW\ SUREOHPV RIWKH GUXJV RIWKH IXWXUH HVSHFLDOO\ WKH SURGXFWV RI
JHQRPLFUHVHDUFK ZLOOEH 7KHUHIRUH QRERRNRQWKH VXEMHFWRIGUXJ VWDELOLW\ VKRXOGEH
FRQVLGHUHGFRPSOHWH 2SLQLRQVDQGLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRIDQ\VFLHQWLILFVWXG\DOVRGLIIHU7KH
HPSKDVHV SUHVHQWHG KHUH UHSUHVHQW WKH ELDVHV RIWKH DXWKRUV ZKR ZHOFRPH FRQVWUXFWLYH
FRPPHQWVDQGFULWLFLVPVRQDQ\RIWKHZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQWKLV WH[W
)LQDOO\WKHDXWKRUVZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNWKHLUFROOHDJXHVIRUWKHLUFRQWULEXWLRQVWRWKH
VWXGLHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVERRN7KH\ZRXOGOLNHWRHVSHFLDOO\WKDQN'UV$VRDQG,]XWVXZKR
FRQWULEXWHGVLJQLILFDQWO\WRDQXPEHURIWKHVWXGLHVSUHVHQWHGIURP'U<RVKLRND¶VODERUDWRU\
&RQWULEXWRUVIURP3URIHVVRU6WHOOD¶VODERUDWRU\LQFOXGHYDULRXVVWXGHQWVWHFKQLFLDQVHVSH
FLDOO\0V:DXJKDQGSRVWGRFWRUDODQGYLVLWLQJVFLHQWLVWV7KHDXWKRUVZRXOGDOVROLNHWR
WKDQN0V.DZDLDQG0V1DNDPXUDRI1DQNRXGR3XEOLVKHUVZKRKHOSHGZLWKWKH RULJLQDO
-DSDQHVHYHUVLRQRIWKLVERRN
6XPLH<RVKLRND
9DOHQWLQR-6WHOOD
&RQWHQWV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
YLL
YLLL &RQWHQWV
5HIHUHQFHV
,QGH[