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    Binomial Probability

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    Najib Hamdan
    The document describes the binomial distribution and its properties. It defines a binomial experiment as having a fixed number of independent trials (n) with two possible outcomes (success or failure) and a constant probability of success (p). It provides the formula to calculate the probability of getting x successes in n trials. Several examples are worked out applying the binomial probability distribution formula to calculate probabilities. It also discusses calculating the mean, variance and standard deviation of a binomial distribution.

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    Binomial Probability

    Uploaded by

    Najib Hamdan
    154 views14 pages
    The document describes the binomial distribution and its properties. It defines a binomial experiment as having a fixed number of independent trials (n) with two possible outcomes (success or failure) and a constant probability of success (p). It provides the formula to calculate the probability of getting x successes in n trials. Several examples are worked out applying the binomial probability distribution formula to calculate probabilities. It also discusses calculating the mean, variance and standard deviation of a binomial distribution.

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    Binomial Probability

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    The document describes the binomial distribution and its properties. It defines a binomial experiment as having a fixed number of independent trials (n) with two possible outcomes (success or failure) and a constant probability of success (p). It provides the formula to calculate the probability of getting x successes in n trials. Several examples are worked out applying the binomial probability distribution formula to calculate probabilities. It also discusses calculating the mean, variance and standard deviation of a binomial distribution.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    154 views14 pages

    Binomial Probability

    Uploaded by

    Najib Hamdan
    The document describes the binomial distribution and its properties. It defines a binomial experiment as having a fixed number of independent trials (n) with two possible outcomes (success or failure) and a constant probability of success (p). It provides the formula to calculate the probability of getting x successes in n trials. Several examples are worked out applying the binomial probability distribution formula to calculate probabilities. It also discusses calculating the mean, variance and standard deviation of a binomial distribution.

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    Binomial

    Distribution
    Binomial Experiment

    The binomial experiment consists of a fixed number of


    trials: n
    Each trial has two possible outcomes: success and
    failure.
    The probability of success is p. The probability of
    failure is 1 – p.
    The trials are independent.

    Binomial random variable is the number of success in n trials.


    Each trial is a Bernoulli process if properties 2 – 4 are satisfied.
    Example of Binomial experiment

     Flip a coin 10 times.

     Draw 5 cards out of a shuffled deck.

     A political survey asks 1500 voters whom


    they intend to vote.
    Binomial Probability Distribution

    x = number of successes in binomial experiment with n trials.


    x takes values 0, 1, 2, … , n, therefore, it is discrete.
    n – x = number of failures.

    Probability that there are x successes and n – x failures:

    p x (1  p) n x
    Number of ways to get x successes and n – x failures:
    n!
    C 
    n

    x!(n  x)!
    x

    where n!=n(n – 1)(n – 2) · · · (2)(1), e.g. 0!=1, 3!=3(2)(1)=6.


    Binomial Probability Distribution
    Formula

    The probability of x successes in a binomial


    experiment with n trials and probability of
    success p is

    n! n x
    P( x )  p (1  p) for x  0, 1, ..., n
    x

    x!(n  x )!
    Example 1

    A quiz consists of 10 multiple-choice questions.


    Each question has 5 possible answers, only one of
    which is correct. Pat plans to guess the answer to
    each question. Find the probability that Pat gets

    a. one answer correct.

    b. all 10 answers correct.


    ANSWER

    n!
    Formula P( x )  p x (1  p)n x
    x!(n  x )!
    Solution: n = 10, p = 1/5 = 0.2

    10!
    a. P(1)  (0.2)1 (1  0.2)101  10(0.2)(0.8)9  .2684
    1!(10  1)!

    10!
    b. P(10)  (0.2)10 (1  0.2)1010  1(0.2)10 (1)  .0000001
    10!(10  10)!

    Table probability

    x 0 1 2 3 4 5

    P(x) 0.107 0.268 0.302 0.201 0.88 0.026


    Example 2
    In the “Pepsi Challenge” a random sample of 20
    subjects are asked to try two unmarked cups of
    pop (Pepsi and Coke) and choose which one
    they prefer. If preference is based solely on
    chance what is the probability that:

    a) 6 will prefer Pepsi?

    b) 12 will prefer Coke?


    ANSWER
    n!
    Formula P( x )  p x (1  p ) n  x
    x! ( n  x )!

    P( x  6)[ p  .05, n  20] )

    20!
    a ) P ( 6)  (0.5)6 (1  0.5) 206
    6! ( 20  6)!
     0.037

    20!
    b) P(12)  (0.5)12 (1  0.5) 2012
    12! ( 20  12)!
     0.1201
    Cumulative Probability

    c) at least 15 will prefer Pepsi?


    P(at least 15) = P(15) + P(16) + P(17) + P(18) + P(19) + P(20)

    P(X ≥ 15) = 1 – P(X ≤ 14) = 1 – 0.9793 = 0.0207

    d) at most 8 will prefer Coke?


    P(at most 8) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + … + P(6) + P(7) + P(8)

    P(X ≤ 8) = 0.2517
    Mean and Variance of a Binomial
    Distribution

    Mean , μ = np
    Variance, σ2 = np(1 – p)
    Standard Deviation, σ = √ np(1 – p)

    Example: If a class is full of students like Pat, what is the


    mean mark? What is the standard deviation?
    Solution: given n= 10 p = 0.2
    μ = np = 10(0.2) = 2
    σ2 = np(1 – p) =2( 1- 0.2) = 1.6
    σ = √ 1.6
    = 1.26
    Exercise 1
    Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability that
    each egg is broken is 0.35

    Find the probability in a random box of eggs:

    a. There are 4 broken eggs.

    b. There are less than 3 broken eggs

    c. Calculate the mean, variance and standard


    deviation
    Answer

    12!
    a. P( X  4)  (0.35) 4 (1  0.35)124
    4! (12  4)!
     495 * (0.015) * (0.032)
     0.235

    b. P( X  3)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)

    12C0  0.350  0.6512 12C1  0.351  0.6511  C2  0.35  0.65


    12 2 10

     1  1  0.005688  12  0.351  0.6511  66  0.1225  0.01346


     0.0151
    Answer

    c. i) Mean , μ = np
    μ = 12 x 0.35
    μ = 42

    ii) Variance,  2
     np(1  p)
    = 12 x 0.35 ( 1-0.35)
    = 2.73

    iii) Standard Deviation,    2

      2.73
     1.65

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