Sri Handaru Yuliati

Business Plan 3
Faculty Economics and Business
Universitas Gadjah mad
market opportunity and target
market
customers
 To understand the concept, research
methods, and market analysis.
 To identify the market opportunity
 To understand the concept and customers
analysis techniques
 To determine the market and customer
targets
 To understand a market wide estimation
tecniques and sales volume
 projectsthe future numbers, characteristics,
and trends in your target market
 shows the projected number of potential
customers divided into segments.
 Also look at market value, not just market
size
 For example:
 although the high-end home segment is 2.5 times
larger than the small business segment as
measured by number of customers, the small
business customer spends almost four times as
much as the home office customer. Therefore,
the small business market is a more important
market in terms of dollar value
 Multiply
the number of potential customers
in the market by the average purchase per
customer.
 A market forecast should always be subject to a
reality check.
 you need to find a way to check it for reality.
 you could estimate sales of all the competitors and
see if the two numbers relate to each other.
 In an international market, you might check
production and import and export figures to see
whether your estimates for annual shipments appear
to be in the same general range as published figures
 You might check with vendors who sold products to
this market in some given year to see whether their
results check with your forecast.
 You might look for macro-economic data to confirm
the relative size of this market compared to other
markets with similar characteristics.
 Selecting the key target markets.
 This is the critical foundation of strategy.
 as segmentation and positioning.
 Under normal circumstances, no company will attempt to
address all the segments in a market
 Think about the inherent market differences,
keys to success, competitive advantage, and
strengths and weaknesses of your company
 Focus on the best market
 is not necessarily the largest one or the one with the
highest growth.
 will be the one that matches your own company
profile
 is the process of gaining information about your
market
 is specific information about your target market
and the key factors that influence their buying
decisions
 can be casual and limited in scope,
 although it may not be “statistically significant”
research, it can still be valuable
 the value and “degree of fit” may be based on
the quality, cost, or the amount of time to
acquire the information
 determine what form of market research is going
to work best for you.
 make that decision based on the value you will
receive, versus the time and other resources you
need to invest to gain access to that information
 isresearch that you conduct yourself, rather
than information that you find already
published
 may result from you having direct contact
with your customers or the public
 types of information gathering:
 Focus groups gather a small group of people
together for a discussion with an assigned leader.
 Customer surveys
 Existing customers
 Potential customers
 Your competition
 Solutions
 Technologies
 Niches
 Market research comes from secondary
sources.
 This is information others have acquired and
already published which you may find
relevant.
 Access to this secondary market research
data may be yours for the asking and cost
you only an email, letter, phone call, or
perhaps a nominal fee for copying and
postage.
 Much of it is entirely free.
 Much of it is available to search on the
Internet.
 http://www.datastatistik-indonesia.com
 Population, Fertility, Mortality, Married,
Migration, Labor Force, Education, Cross sectors,
others
 http://www.bps.go.id/
 http://www.rand.org/labor/bps.data/webdo
cs/statistik_industri/si_main.htm
 Survei Industri (SI)
 Large and Medium-scale Manufacturing Survey
 http://apindo.or.id
 Minimum Wage
 To find an expert forecast,
 To estimate from past data,
 To find parallel data or apply a
model.
 If you can find an expert forecast already published,
or if you have a budget to pay for an expert forecast,
that’s a luxury. This probably means you don’t have
to do your own.
 Free published expert forecasts
 Government forecasts intended to be free,
 Expert forecasts made during interviews or news media
coverage
 Professional forecasts whose highlights are released to
the media as teasers to sell the more expensive
research.
 You can look for these forecasts
 in published news reports,
 on the Internet,
 in library reference materials,
 in trade association publications.
1. Composite salesperson opinion
2. Expert opinion
3. Management concensus
 the past doesn’t really predict the future,
but it can indicate trends.
 is one of the fundamentals of forecasting.
 It’sparticularly important for market
forecasting,
 because you’ll frequently find ample data about
your market’s recent past even when you can’t
find a market forecast.
 Using the past data will get you a good
starting point and a sense of reasonableness
for your forecast.
1. Time Series Methods
1. Simple average
2. Geometric average
3. Moving average
4. Least square
2. Regression
 For example, I want to project the market for
restaurant equipment in Lane County, Oregon.
 I can go to the U.S. Census Bureau State and County
QuickFacts to find out that Lane County had 611
“eating and drinking places” in 1996 and 639 in 1999
 I don’t particularly like the fact that these numbers are
several years old, but they are the latest available and
they are also better than any other numbers I can find.
 I could count eating and drinking establishments by
using the Yellow Pages in the telephone directories,
or some other means, but any alternative would be
impractical and expensive.
 So I accept the latest available census data. I
calculate the growth rate for 1996 to 1999 and apply
that same rate into the future to create a market
forecast
 take the past data as a base number
 then add your own research and common
sense to improve on it
Examples:
 contact the local Chamber of Commerce or restaurant
association
 ask for an expert opinion about the fate of eating and
drinking establishments in the recent past and foreseeable
future
 If the local expert says there has been a boom in restaurants,
or a problem with restaurants, then you can use that
information to adjust your growth rate up or down.
 In your marketing plan text you would explain what the past
growth rate was and why you were expecting it to change.
 You could also check with the Chamber of Commerce or
the local governments to find economic growth numbers.
 compare general economic health in the 1996-1999 period to
the 2000-2005 period as well as projections for the foreseeable
future.
 revise your projected growth rate accordingly
 explain in your text about the source of the growth rate figure
 The important point is that
 Dont’t just take a wild guess about the
restaurant population
 By starting with past numbers you improve the
overall quality of the forecast
 This is mainly just common sense and educated
guessing
 Estimatepresent and future market size of
the industry
 See methods of estimating the present & future
potential market in texts (Kotler) or other sources
 Estimatepresent and future market value of
the industry
 Need information of the average purchase per
customer.
 Estimate the average maket share of your
company
 Estimate the future sales volume of your
company (next 5 years)