Competing Interests of Major Powers in the

Middle East: The Case Study of Syria and Its

Implications for Regional Stability
Saman ZULFQAR*

Abstract Key Words

The Middle East region has always Syria, Strategic Competition, Conflict, Crisis,
remained the centre of attraction for major Shatterbelt, Stability.
powers due to its geostrategic importance
and huge energy resources. The Middle Introduction
East, due to hosting many ethnic and
religious nationalities, has been a conflict- The Middle East, a conflict-prone
prone region, facing various conflicts and region, is in a state of flux due to the
crises that not only make regional states shifting geopolitical landscape of the
confront each other but also invite extra- region. The current phase of instability
regional powers to play their role. and turmoil can be traced back to
two important developments – the
The paper aims at highlighting the current US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the
situation in the Middle East by taking disastrous consequences of the so
Syria as a case study. After 2011, the
called Arab Spring (later on called as
civil war in Syria and the subsequent
the Arab Uprisings).
instability provided Russia and the
United States with an opportunity to The Middle East and in particular the
support opposing factions engaged in Persian Gulf have immense strategic
war. The theme of involvement by extra- importance due to their huge energy
regional powers in regional conflicts resources. It is estimated that the
having negative implications for regional region holds 52.5% of the total crude
peace and stability will be discussed in this oil reserves of the world as well as
paper. 44.6% of total natural gas reserves.1

* Research Officer, Islamabad Policy Research Another unique geographical

Institute (IPRI), Islamabad, Pakistan. characteristic of the region is that the
E-mail: samanz.pk@gmail.com
Middle Eastern landmass is rimmed

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PERCEPTIONS, Spring 2018, Volume XXIII, Number 1, pp. 121-148.
 Saman Zulfqar

by five seas – the Caspian Sea, Black Despite unique geographical

Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean, characteristics and shared resources,
the Red Sea /Gulf of Aden and the the region has been marred with
Arabian /Persian Gulf – all of which intense sectarian conflict as well. In
are important for regional as well as particular, the US withdrawal of combat
for extra-regional powers that have troops from Iraq without signing the
historically sought to achieve control Framework Agreement shifted the
over them.2 regional balance of power in Iran’s
favor. Moreover, the Arab uprisings
Moreover, maritime transportation
through three chokepoints – the Suez of 2011 not only created chaos and
Canal (connecting the Mediterranean turmoil but weakened the monarchies
and Red Seas), Bab-al-Mandab in the region. Coupled with these
(connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf two important developments was
of Aden), and the Straits of Hormuz the signing of the Iran Nuclear Deal
(connecting the Persian Gulf to the known as the Joint Comprehensive
Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea) Plan of Action ( JCPOA), which
makes Middle East a tremendously created insecurity and fear among Iran’s
significant area in sustaining the global rival Arab states. Given the structured
economy.3 insecurity of Gulf-Arab states vis-à-vis
Iran and Syria, for which these states
The strategic location of the Middle had sought US security protection, it
East – at the junction of three continents is noteworthy that the US withdrawal
and with huge energy resources -- has of troops from Iraq and signing of the
long attracted outside powers to the JCPOA contributed to harnessing
region. Interestingly, the presence of sectarian tensions in the region.
outside powers has not stabilized the
region, rather it has further exposed the
fissures – different sectarian outlooks,
and weak state structures in the region.
The strategic location of the
To gain competitive advantage, these
Middle East – at the junction
outside powers build upon and further
of three continents and with
reinforce internal divisions in the
region. These facts have hindered the
huge energy resources -- has
geopolitical integration of the region long attracted outside powers
as most of the states rely on external to the region.
military support.4

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 Competing Interests of Major Powers in the Middle East

This paper highlights the role of The Middle East – A

regional as well as extra-regional powers
Shatterbelt Region: The
in the Syrian conflict while identifying
the implications of their involvement
Conceptual Framework
for regional peace and stability. Though
The importance of geopolitical theories
the US is still militarily a dominant
in international politics cannot be
actor, China’s expanding influence and
denied. International Relations
Russia’s renewed interest both pose scholars are well aware of geopolitical
challenges to US interests in the region. heartland-rimland theories, which
Syria, due to its prolonged civil war both emphasized the permanence and
(2011-onwards) has become a centre centrality of a global struggle for power
for major power competition between between Eurasian-based land power
the US and Russia. This renewed geo- and rimland-based sea power in the
political contest by outside powers context of global maritime dominance.5
to achieve their interests at the cost In a related conceptualization, Saul
of regional peace and stability by Cohen used the term shatterbelts as
accelerating regional states’ fears makes roughly equivalent to the concept of
the Middle East an extremely volatile rimland.6
region. The concept of Shatterbelt, a
geo-political theory, has been used as
the conceptual framework to highlight The term “shatterbelt” refers
the geostrategic importance of the to a geographical region that
Middle East, its power politics, its is beset by local conflicts
embedded sectarian conflict and most within or between states in the
importantly the on-going Syrian region and by the involvement
conflict, which has been aggravating of competing extra-regional
issues with the involvement of major powers.
regional and extra-regional powers.
The Shatterbelt concept has rarely
been used by writers in the Middle Some geographical regions are
East context. In this regard, the paper inherently more conflict-prone than
is an attempt to apply the concept of other regions and are referred to
Shatterbelt to the Middle East region. as “shatterbelts.”7 The concept of
It seems a relevant concept regarding shatterbelts was coined in geopolitical
existing realities. writings of the 20th century. The term

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 Saman Zulfqar

“shatterbelt” refers to a geographical shatterbelts were devised. The study

region that is beset by local conflicts of conflicts in the shatterbelt regions
within or between states in the region show that states, due to their internal
and by the involvement of competing fragmentations – ethnic, religious or
extra-regional major powers.8 To a linguistic cleavages – fall into civil wars
great extent, shatterbelt regions are held with higher possibility of escalation
responsible for major power conflicts of conflict due to the involvement of
– World War I and World War II are external powers.10
often said to have started in shatterbelt
regions. Initial writings on shatterbelt regions
focused on Central and Eastern
Traditional geo-politicians and conflict Europe but Cohen incorporated the
theorists have treated geography either concept of shatterbelts into his regional
as a facilitating condition – in the model of the world. He classified
context of geographical proximity – or three regions – the Middle East, Sub
as a source of conflict – with regard to Saharan Africa, and South East Asia as
territorial conflicts, while the distinct shatterbelts, which he defined as “large
feature that can be attributed to the strategically located regions, occupied
concept of shatterbelt is its uniqueness by a number of conflicting states that
of combining these two characteristics.9 are caught between the conflicting
Though the term shatterbelt was interests of the great powers.”11 The
coined much later, strategists such as physical, environmental, historical,
Mahan (1900) studied a belt of weak cultural, and political differences
Middle Eastern and Asian states that between states and uneven population
due to the anticipated presence of vast distribution in shatterbelt regions are
resources, attracted the great powers – likely to produce fragmentation in
Great Britain and Russia – which got these states, thus reducing the chances
involved in strategic competition for of political or economic coordination
territorial and economic expansion in among them. Cohen identified that
the area. shatterbelt regions have some strategic
importance – mineral wealth or control
The instability during the inter-war over shipping lanes – thus attracting
period and the outbreak of World War great power competition to enhance
II renewed the interest of geo-political their influence in these regions.
theorists to identify what makes one
region more volatile and conflict-prone The Middle East as a shatterbelt region
than other regions. In the subsequent is characterized by deep divisions
inquiry, the terms shatter zones and within and between sovereign states

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 Competing Interests of Major Powers in the Middle East

and societies, which are further the Iranian revolution in 1979, when
inflamed by great power competition.12 the US, along with the Sunni Arab
Home to many ethnic and religious monarchies, viewed Iran as a rising
communities- Sunni and Shia Muslims, threat to its interests in the region. In
Christians, and Jews; Arabs, Turks, and this context, the most notable feature
Persians; Azeris, Kurds, and Druze; regarding US policy is the 1980 Carter
Alawites and Maronits; Nilotic Blacks Doctrine, which will be discussed in
and Sudanese Arabs- the Middle the following section. The Iranian
revolution and subsequent Iran-Iraq
East has remained mired in conflicts
war provided a rationale for the extra-
and crises.13 The religious, ethnic and
regional powers to get more actively
racial strife gets intensified by scarce
involved in the affairs of the Middle
arable land and water resources as well Eastern states by exploiting the fears
as conflicting claims over oil and gas of regional states. The extra-regional
resources.14 states’ involvement, though highly
destabilizing, has become a permanent
The Middle East as a shatterbelt feature in the region.
region is characterized by deep This paper discusses the interests and
divisions within and between roles of the major powers; namely the
sovereign states and societies. US, Russia and China, in historical
context. The US and Russia had long
been involved in the affairs of the
Middle East but China, though heavily
The deep internal divisions in the
dependent on energy resources of the
Middle East shatterbelt are enhanced
Middle East, was not an active player
by major powers’ policies to achieve
in Middle East politics. For the first
their objectives. To get more leverage
time in history in January 2016, China
vis-a-vis rival states, the major powers issued a White Paper on its relations
are in direct competition due to the with the Arab States.15 Maintaining
strategic location and huge resources a balance between China’s relations
of the region, which not only increase with Israel and the Arab States as
geopolitical competition among well as between the Sunni Arab States
regional states but contribute to and Iran has been a guiding principle
exacerbating sectarian tensions as well. of China’s Middle East policy. China
has cordial relations with Israel but at
In recent times, the sectarian cleavage the same time it supports a Palestinian
in Middle East politics emerged after state with East Jerusalem as its capital

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 Saman Zulfqar

and supports a WMD-Free Zone in on the African shore of the Gulf of

the Middle East.16 Aden, while developing the port into
a commercial and strategic rival to
British Aden.20 Similarly, Italy seized
Interests of Great Powers in
Eritrea and got access to landlocked
the Middle East – Past and Ethiopia, which became the central
Present focus for Italy’s imperialist ambitions
in Northeastern Africa.21 Meanwhile,
The Middle East has remained an Czarist Russia sought expansion
arena of strategic competition during towards territories around the Caspian
the 19th and 20th centuries between Sea, bringing it into conflict with the
Western European imperialist powers Ottoman Empire and Persia.
and Czarist Russia. Even before the
dismemberment of the Ottoman
Empire in 1919, Britain, the most The Middle East has
important colonial power, had strategic remained an arena of strategic
goals in the region and opening of the competition during the 19th
Suez Canal in 1869 provided it with and 20th centuries between
an opportunity to be the dominant Western European imperialist
commercial power in the world.17
powers and Czarist Russia.
The joint control of Anglo-Egyptian
forces over Sudan gave Britain access
to the western shores of the Red Sea
to complement the base on the other In the mid-20th century, the Western
side at Aden, which commanded the European powers’ influence in the
strait of Bab-al-Mandeb, the exit to Middle East started to decline as
the Indian Ocean.18 Moreover, British France gave up its influence over
protectorates were established over Lebanon in 1945 and over Syria in
Bahrain (1867), the Trucial States 1946. Britain granted independence to
(1892) and Kuwait (1899), which trans-Jordan in 1946, and after a year, it
became bases to pursue the power withdrew its mandate from Palestine as
struggle.19 well.22 The war ravaged European states
– Britain and France left the space for
Other European powers also got the United States which became the
engaged within the Middle Eastern dominant Western power in the region.
region. France strengthened its
foothold in the Levant (Lebanon and As part of its containment strategy23
Syria) and also took hold of Djibouti, United States made defense

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 Competing Interests of Major Powers in the Middle East

arrangements with Middle East and stability of the Middle East by

states and in response, Soviet Union employing peaceful means – economic
also formalized a policy of alliances and military aid as well as through
beyond its borders. The Suez Crisis the use of force,26 while the Carter
of 1956 provided Moscow with an Doctrine stated that ‘any attempt by
opportunity to emerge as the patron of an outside power to gain control of the
Egypt, providing it with military and Persian Gulf region will be considered
economic assistance, while establishing as an attack against vital interests of the
military and air bases in the country and US and will be deterred by any means
subsequently enhancing its influence necessary including military means.’27
in the Middle East.24 Soviet alliances Similarly, US governments from time
with Middle Eastern states enabled it to time have expressed their interests in
to deploy naval forces in the eastern the Middle East as core interests.
Mediterranean, the Gulf of Aden
and the Indian Ocean. At different
times, Soviet navy had access to bases Ensuring the protection and
in Libya, Egypt, Syria, in Ethiopia’s free flow of oil has been the
Eritrea province and Somalia.25
most constant, and the most
In this backdrop of external important, US interest in the
involvement in the Middle East, the Middle East.
interests of United States, Russia and
China are discussed below.
Ensuring the protection and free flow
US Interests in the Middle of oil has been the most constant, and
East the most important, US interest in the
Middle East. Olaf Caroe, a British
The sole objective of the US has been to official, recognized the importance
maintain its predominance in the region of Middle East energy resources
and to achieve this end, US is ready to especially in the Persian Gulf and
employ all elements of national power Arabian Peninsula, and identified a role
including the use of military force. for the US to maintain preeminence in
This objective was clearly enunciated the region.28 Since the 1970s, America’s
in the Eisenhower Doctrine of 1957 strategic interest in the region has been
and in the Carter Doctrine of 1980. not only securing easy access for itself
The Eisenhower Doctrine pronounced but also ensuring an open and secure
US commitment to the security market for its allies in East Asia and

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 Saman Zulfqar

Europe. Middle Eastern countries, which has always remained indifferent

especially the states of the Persian Gulf, to the proposal, the US has also been
are key oil producers and exporters. reluctant to support such a proposal.33
Europe, China, and Japan all depend
on imported oil to meet their energy
needs. In recent times, given US- To prevent the spread of
Iran hostile relations, Iran has been nuclear weapons has been
considered as a potential threat to the another key interest of the US
free flow of oil.29 in the Middle East.
To prevent the spread of nuclear
weapons has been another key interest
of the US in the Middle East.This policy The United States maintains extensive
intends to prevent any hostile state security cooperation with Israel.
from gaining enough power to threaten Washington helps Israel preserve its
“Qualitative Military Edge”, with
US interests regarding oil security or
legislation ensuring Israel’s superiority
the security of Israel. Initially in 1981,
Israel’s preventive attack on Iraq’s over “any conventional military threat
Osirak nuclear reactor 30 eliminated from any individual state or possible
the possibility of Iraq’s developing coalition of states or from non-
of nuclear weapons. Similarly, Israel state actors.34 US and Israeli defense
attacked Syria’s al-Kibar nuclear companies often work together on
facility in 2007.31 But it is ironical that projects, including missile defense
any effort on the part of regional states programmes such as the Arrow and
to strengthen institutional mechanisms Arrow II anti-missile systems. The
regarding non-proliferation could “Iron Dome” anti-missile system,
not gain desired attention from the which helps protect Israel form Hamas
major powers. In this regard, it is and Hizbullah rockets, was a joint US-
`
35
worth noting that the proposals to Israel effort. Since the 9/11 attacks,
make the Middle East Weapons of the United States has prioritized
Mass Destruction (WMD) Free Zone counter-terrorism in its policy towards
could not produce any dividends. The the Middle East. Egypt, Jordan,
original proposal as put forward by the Saudi Arabia, and Yemen rank high
Egyptian Representative during the regarding bilateral counter-terrorism
NPT Review Conference in 1995 has cooperation.36 As far as counter-
been revived from time to time, even terrorism is concerned, through
in the last NPT Review Conference cooperative efforts, the United States
(May 2015).32 Apart from Israel, gains access to vital intelligence, local

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 Competing Interests of Major Powers in the Middle East

services use their agents and capabilities issue was considered detrimental to
to target and disrupt terrorists at home, the Gulf States’ interests and created
and in some cases, such as Yemen, the fears and doubts in the Gulf capitals
United States secures physical access in about America’s commitment to Gulf
order to launch drone strikes.37 security.39
To meet its interests, the United The Gulf States’ disillusionment with
States maintains a range of security the US, along with their economic
relationships in the Middle East. pragmatism in light of the global power
These include defense cooperation transition to the East, motivated them
agreements, basing and access rights, to diversify their political and security
and the prepositioning of military relations.
assets. The current US force structure in
the Gulf consists of bases in Bahrain, In this regard, since 2005 onwards,
Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE.38 relations with China, Russia and
Western countries were also enhanced.40
The US has been the largest arms
supplier to the regional states. US
military commitments and its security Russian Interests in the
guarantees have been the cornerstone of Middle East
the Middle East security architecture.
The US security umbrella has allowed In the post-Cold War era, Russian
Gulf monarchies to stand up against engagement with the Middle East
their powerful regional rivals – Iraq states can primarily be seen through
and Iran. the prism of countering secessionist
movements in the North Caucasus
as Moscow had been accusing Gulf
The US has been the largest
entities of funding the separatists and
arms supplier to the regional extremists in Russia.41
states.
In the past, Moscow had blamed Gulf-
based charity organizations for
The US invasion of Iraq and later on introducing radicalism in the region
withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and financing extremist groups in the
without signing any Status of Forces North Caucasus.42
Agreement has shifted the regional
order in Iran’s favor. Moreover, Russia, while fighting the Chechen
President Obama’s focus on East Asia wars, faced severe criticism from
and its engagement with Iran on nuclear Muslim countries, especially the

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 Saman Zulfqar

Middle Eastern countries which termed Caucasus have joined high military
the Chechen fight against Russia as ranks in DAESH47 in Iraq and Syria.48
a struggle for achieving right to self- This has been a cause of concern for
determination.43 The War on Terror Russia as these fighters will come
provided Russia with an opportunity to back with more battlefield experience
cooperate with the West and classify its and might try to mobilize a global
military operation in Chechnya as part Jihadist movement against the Russian
of the terrorist strategy.44 government after the end of the Syrian
conflict.49
Russia’s opposition to the Iraq war and
its anti-Western rhetoric helped it to Secondly, Russia is interested in
improve its relations with the Muslim engaging Middle Eastern states
states. In this regard, granting Russia economically but, despite its
an observer status in the Organization continuous efforts, it plays a marginal
of Islamic Countries (OIC) in 2003 role in the economies of the Gulf
was a breakthrough, which led to the States. As per 2013 statistics, out of
improvement of relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council’s $1.47
Russia and Muslim countries and trillion total trade with the world,
subsequently changed the stance of Russia-GCC trade was valued at $3.74
Muslim countries towards Russia’s billion.50 Economic relations remain
actions and policies towards its Muslim focused on three areas: arms sales,
population in the North Caucasus.45 energy, and investment. The region is
the second largest arms export market
for Russia after the Asia Pacific.51
Russia’s opposition to the
Iraq war and its anti-Western Despite having political differences
rhetoric helped it to improve on issues of Iran, Syria and Palestine,
Russia has established strong economic
its relations with the Muslim
relations with Israel, with bilateral
states. trade reaching $3 billion in 2009.52
While making arms deals with Middle
It is reported that Russian Muslims Eastern states, Russia has given due
have been participating in the war in consideration to preserve strategic
Syria as part of the rebel forces and equation vis-à-vis Israel and the
constitute the second largest group of Muslim states of the Middle East.
foreign fighters in Syria after Libyans.46 Apart from Israel, Russia has also
Similarly, militants from the North established strong economic relations
with Turkey. Their trade volume has

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 Competing Interests of Major Powers in the Middle East

been constantly increasing and has refusal to sell arms to Egypt in 2013
reached to over $34 billion in 2012.53 following the military takeover, Russia
stepped in and signed arms deals with
As regards Russia’s relations with the
the Egyptian government.58
Gulf countries, energy has remained
the most significant component of Apart from Russia’s economic
economic relations. Energy generates relations with the Middle Eastern
over 40% of Russia’s federal fund and states, the Arab uprisings in 2011
over 75% of foreign hard currency provided Russia with an opportunity
earnings.54 Russia has been continuously to expand its strategic influence in
engaging Iran, Qatar, Algeria and the region. Initially, Russia remained
Libya, the key gas producers of the neutral regarding developments taking
region, to cooperate and coordinate place in Tunisia and Egypt as part of
their policies regarding gas. 55 The the Arab Spring because these two
Russian objective is to contain Europe’s countries were not of much relevance
efforts to diversify its sources of energy to Russia.59 Developments in Libya
(as Europe imports 80% of Russia’s and the subsequent Western military
gas) away from Russia. To achieve intervention for regime change
this end, Russia has adopted a three- alarmed Russia, which abstained from
pronged strategy.56 First, to ensure that Resolution 1973, authorizing NATO’s
Russian controlled pipeline routes – airstrikes against the Qaddafi regime
Nord Stream and South Stream – are and sanctioning military support for
constructed and alternative pipelines opposition forces to topple the Qaddafi
circumventing Russia cannot be government.60
developed. Second, to engage gas
producing Central Asian states such
as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Apart from Russia’s economic
Uzbekistan to ensure that they sell relations with the Middle
their gas through Russian controlled Eastern states, the Arab
pipelines. Third, to persuade the other uprisings in 2011 provided
gas producing countries (Middle Russia with an opportunity to
Eastern) to collaborate and coordinate expand its strategic influence
with Russia in deciding market share in in the region.
the European gas market.57

The loss of Iraq as the major importer

of Russian weapons was a setback to its While opposing Western interventions,
interests in the region but after the US the Russian stance on the Syrian

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 Saman Zulfqar

conflict seems highly uncompromising. to look westwards. It was suggested that

The Syrian conflict has become a in ‘China’s far west, Washington does
litmus test for confronting the concept not have a network of alliances to block
of humanitarian intervention, as in Beijing from breaking out, thus China
2008 the Russian intervention in has greater opportunities to enhance
Georgia was to set ‘redlines against its geopolitical and economic influence
NATO enlargement.’61 Why Russian in Central Asia, the Middle East and
policy towards Syria is different from beyond.’64 After much deliberation in
its policy towards other Middle East 2013, the Chinese leadership declared
states will be discussed below. the launching of two initiatives –
the Silk Road Economic Belt and
the Maritime Silk Road, adopting
China’s Interests in the the name of the ancient trade route
Middle East between China and the West through
Central Asia and the Middle East. 65
China’s primary interest in the Middle To pursue these initiatives, China has
East has been continued access to been constructing and financing ports
energy resources. China has surpassed in Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Turkey in
the US as the largest importer of Gulf the Mediterranean region as well as
energy resources. Since 1995, the in Eritrea and Djibouti on the Red
Middle East has been China’s number Sea.66 In this regard, China has been
one source of imported petroleum. 62 In heavily investing in Egypt, pledging
this regard, Saudi Arabia and Iran are $45 billion in construction of the
of immense importance. According to Suez Canal Economic Zone and an
2012 statistics, Saudi Arabia was the additional amount of $15 billion in
number one source of petroleum while Egyptian electricity, transportation and
Iran was the fourth most important infrastructure development projects.67
supplier of imported Chinese oil.63
As regards China’s energy relations
with Iran, despite expressing public China’s primary interest in
opposition to sanctions, China has the Middle East has been
complied with the UN and the US continued access to energy
sanctions against Iran and later on resources.
played important role in negotiating
P5+1 Iran Nuclear Deal.

Moreover, rising tensions in East Asia Another of China’s interests in the

have compelled Chinese policy makers Middle East has been preserving

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 Competing Interests of Major Powers in the Middle East

internal security at home and around its

periphery. China considers the Middle Historically, China avoided
East as a strategic extension of China’s military presence in the region.
periphery, as the issues unfolding in
the Middle East will have a direct
influence on China’s internal security
and stability.68 These concerns make Current Political Dynamics
China a very cautious player in Middle in the Middle East and
East affairs.69
Major Power Competition
in Syria
China considers the Middle After analyzing the interests of US,
East as a strategic extension of Russia and China it is imperative to
China’s periphery. highlight the current regional dynamics
that attracted the active involvement of
extra-regional powers. Emile Simpson
Historically, China avoided military identifies three trends that unveil
presence in the region, and its first Russian and the US confrontationist
naval visit to the Mediterranean policies in the Middle East.72 The US
occurred in 2009. In 2010, the Chinese and its Western allies, in responding to
navy visited Jeddah and in 2011 and the Arab Spring, intervened for regime
2014, it conducted rescue operations change in Libya and later on attempted
to evacuate its nationals from Libya. it in Syria by backing the rebel forces.
Similarly, in April 2015, it evacuated But a weakening of moderate rebel
foreign nationals from Yemen while in forces and strengthening of extremists
the same year, it conducted joint naval and hardliners in each case paved the
exercises in the Mediterranean Sea for way for Russia to support the regimes
the first time. In 2016, China started on the pretext of preventing ‘Islamist
constructing a naval base in Djibouti, chaos’. The best examples of this are
an East African country that is at the Gen. Haftar in Libya, President Assad
southern entrance to the Red Sea on in Syria, and the Sisi Government in
the route to the Suez Canal and that Egypt.73
also hosts the largest US military Secondly, after signing the Nuclear deal
base in Africa.70 In July 2017, after with Iran, the Obama Administration
completion of the facility, China sent and later on Trump Administration
ships carrying troops to China’s first have taken a hard line stance against
overseas military base.71 Tehran while Russia strengthened its

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 Saman Zulfqar

relations with Tehran and acted as a share borders with non-Arab neighbors,
broker between Saudi Arabia and Iran as it shares borders with Turkey and
to set up the November 2016 OPEC Israel. The status of being a frontline
agreement.74 state adjoining Israel gives Syria an
exceptional stature in the Arab world
Apart from the US-Russia stand-off on
and makes it pivotal in international
many issues in the Middle East, China
efforts to resolve the Palestine-Israel
has remained persistent in its stance of
conflict.76 Syria considers Israel as
non-intervention in internal affairs of
a continuous external threat and its
states and opposed Western efforts to
loss of the Golan Heights, its natural
regime change in Libya and later on
defense against Israel, only augmented
in Syria, while emphasizing peaceful
its insecurity and fear.77
resolution of the conflict rather than
overthrowing the Assad regime.75 Apart from external threats, the current
Syrian conflict can be traced back to
the so called Arab Spring of 2011. The
China has remained persistent large-scale protests against President
in its stance of non-intervention Bashar al-Assad and his government
in internal affairs of states. prompted a violent response from the
Assad government. The subsequent
deterioration of the situation paved
the way for external involvement in the
The prolonged Syrian civil war attracted
Syrian conflict.
the regional as well as extra regional
powers to get involved in the conflict Since the outbreak of the current crisis,
to enhance their own interests. A the external powers have sought to
significant reason for the involvement shape the outcomes of the conflict.78
of these states has been Syria’s geo- It is more pertinent to classify external
strategic importance in the Middle actors into three groups: the first group
East. Apart from its own natural comprises those who support the Assad
resources, Syria serves as the centre of regime – Iran, and Russia; the second
thousands of kilometers of oil and gas group consists of those that oppose the
pipelines that run through the Middle Assad regime – Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
Eastern states. the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
Another reason that signifies its geo- states, the US and its NATO allies; and
strategic importance is the fact that a third group that cannot take sides in
Syria is one of only two Arab states that a decisive way; Jordan, Lebanon and
Israel.79

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 Competing Interests of Major Powers in the Middle East

President Assad with military support

Since the outbreak of the when the regime was close to collapse.
current crisis, the external Russian warships patrolled in waters
powers have sought to shape close to Syria and its military advisors
the outcomes of the conflict. provided support to the Syrian army. 83

One significant reason for Russia’s

All the actors supporting or opposing technical as well as military support for
Assad regime have different interests Syria is Russia’s access to its strategic
and different strategies. Saudi Arabia base at Tartus. The base is a refueling
and the US both have a convergence station and provides logistics facilities
of interest in reducing Iran’s influence to Russian navy ships while providing
in Syria (which they consider enables the Russian navy with the ability to
Iran to exert influence in the Levant) maintain a regular presence in the
with regard to preserving the regional eastern Mediterranean.84 Moreover,
balance of power.The Gulf Cooperation Tartus port gives Russia greater
Council (GCC) states also share these ability to navigate in the strategically
concerns.80 important Gulf of Aden as well.85

The states that support the Assad

regime have their own reasons. Syria is
Syria has been a strategic ally
the only Arab ally of Iran that reduces
of Russia since the Cold War.
its regional isolation, and provides
it leverage vis-à-vis Hizbullah and
Lebanon, and helps it challenge the Apart from strategic interests, it is
regional order supported by the US. 81 noteworthy to highlight Russia’s
Likewise, economic interests vis-à-vis Syria,
which is a transit state with regard to
As regards extra-regional powers, Syria energy pipelines.
has been a strategic ally of Russia since
the Cold War, and to protect Syria, Initially, Russia also favored non-
Russia has exercised its veto power interference and non-intervention in
at three crucial times – in 2011, 2012 Syria but later on it got actively involved
and 2014- to block the imposition in the conflict by supporting the Assad
of sanctions or use of force against regime not just diplomatically and
the Syrian regime.82 The absence of politically but by extending military
sanctions has allowed Russia to provide support as well. Russia has been

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launching airstrikes in Syria since The Syrian Conflict’s

September 2015, nominally against
Implications for Regional
DAESH targets but critics negate
Russia’s claim and assert that Russia Stability
has also been targeting rebel forces
fighting against the Assad regime. 86 The Syrian conflict in its seventh
year seemed to be winding down as
It is estimated that Russian airstrikes the Assad regime had survived and
have strengthened the Assad regime DAESH had been defeated while
for the first time in the long civil regional states were looking ahead
war that is approaching its seventh to the outcomes of the conflict. 91 In
year, enabling Syrian forces to retake this regard, on November 22, 2017, a
strategic territory near Latakia.87 meeting of leaders from Iran, Turkey,
and Russia was convened at Sochi,
As for as the US role in the Syrian
Russia to discuss the future of Syria.
conflict is concerned, after its inability
Similarly, UN-sponsored talks between
to get authorization from the United
representatives of the Syrian opposition
Nations Security Council to resort to
and Syrian government were held on
military action, it elicited the support
November 28 to chalk out the future
of Arab states in bringing forth the
Syrian National Coalition in an course.92
attempt to unify diverse opposition
forces and to get them international
recognition.88 In response to the
In Syria, Russia, Turkey and
Syrian military’s suspected poison gas Iran have emerged as the
dominant external players.
(chemical) attack on Khan Shiekhoun,
a rebel controlled town that resulted
in heavy civilian casualties- 86 people
including 27 children- the US launched To curb opposition, the Government
59 Tomahawk cruise missiles targeting of President Assad launched a fierce
the Shayrat airfield in Homs province bombing campaign against anti-
from where the chemical attack was government rebels in Eastern Ghouta
launched.89 It has been termed as the in the suburb of Damascus, killing
first direct US military attack on Assad hundreds of people including children
forces that was strongly condemned by and women.93 Despite the Security
the Russia, terming it detrimental to Council’s resolution for a truce for 30
US-Russia bilateral relations.90 days, a cease-fire has not taken effect.94

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In Syria, Russia, Turkey and Iran have The future sectarian challenge may
emerged as the dominant external emerge from the emerging political
players. The apparent disinterest of structure of Syria. Syria not only became
the United States has given Russia a battleground for regional states to
leverage to engage in post-conflict support their sectarian factions, but
settlement talks. As regards the future Syrian refugees’presence in neighboring
of Syria, to maintain the unity of Syria states created fear about demographic
as well as to accommodate the interests change in those states. This is especially
of all the stakeholders will remain a true in Lebanon (on which Lebanon’s
daunting challenge for the foreseeable political structure is based), but support
future. So far, the longevity, gravity and to pro- Syrian government factions
complexity of the Syrian conflict have and anti-Syrian government factions
created serious regional implications can lead to eruption of sectarian and
that are elaborated below. communitarian tensions as was the
case in 1975 and which fuelled the
 Harnessing the Sectarian civil war there (1975-1990).97 These
Challenge in the Region fears and concerns can trigger sectarian
strife in respective states. Syrian
The sectarian issue has long been conflict is becoming a defining factor
embedded in the regional politics of in containing or escalating sectarian
the Middle East, but Saudi-Iranian tensions in the region. This sectarian
rivalry for regional hegemony has divide is not limited to Syria alone,
harnessed the sectarian politics. 95 As Yemen is also passing through intense
mentioned earlier, Iran has been the civil war. Bahrain and Lebanon also
main beneficiary of shifting geopolitical have sectarian cleavages that can be
dynamics in the Middle East – the exploited by external players.
post-Saddam Shia regime in Iraq as
well as the Arab uprisings of 2011 have  Rising Militancy
immensely contributed to raise the The Assad regime’s renewed initiative
regional influence of Iran. Moreover, to launch attack against rebels in the
the Iranian-P5+1 deal further helped Sunni dominated region of Ghouta
Iran to shift the balance in its favor. 96 has the potential to not only generate
Iran’s increased leverage as well as sectarian violence across the region
the Sunni monarchies’ activism have but it can enhance militancy in youth.
been harnessing the sectarian divide External involvement in internal affairs
in the region and can lead to further of states has already given rise to
instability. militancy. Foreign interference on the

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pretext of humanitarian intervention in non-state actors. In this context, the

Libya and later on in Syria has been the most challenging threat has been the
determining factor in fueling militant rise of the DAESH,
tendencies in the region. In this
regard, the Syrian example is the most Though after an intense battle, DAESH
illustrious one that has become a battle has been defeated in its stronghold,
field for regional and extra-regional Mosul, Iraq, but Iraqi forces have
states to pursue their interests. The to rely on US support to meet the
neighboring states fear that the influx future challenge, as $1.2 billion in
of Syrian refugees will bring about budget funds have been requested for
militancy in their respective states as 2018 to continue supporting the Iraqi
well. forces.100 The United Nations has also
estimated $1 billion will be needed
for reconstructing Iraqi cities. 101 The
Foreign interference on the
threat of resurgence of DAESH or
pretext of humanitarian
any other non-state actor cannot be
intervention in Libya and ruled out unless state structures and
later on in Syria has been the the legitimacy of governments in the
determining factor in fueling Middle East are restored.
militant tendencies in the
region.  Regional Counter-Terrorism
Initiatives

Most states in the Middle East have

 Weak and Fractured State
been directly involved in the armed
Structures
conflicts since 2011. During 2013-17,
As a result of the Arab uprisings Saudi Arabia was the world’s second
(2011) weak state structures provided largest arms importer with arms imports
non-state actors and private militias increasing by 225% compared to 2008-
with an opportunity to rise up to fill 12. Arms imports by Egypt – the third
the security vacuum in Iraq, Syria, and largest importer in 2013-17 grew by
Yemen.98 215% between 2008-12 and 2013-
17.102 In this backdrop, in December
The prolonged conflicts in Iraq and
2015, Saudi Arabia announced the
Syria not just challenge the unity of
formation of a 41-member Islamic
these two states but threaten to redraw
Military Counter Terrorism Coalition
the map of the Middle East. 99 The
(IMCTC) to form a unified pan-
prolonged civil wars have given rise to
Islamic front against terrorism. 103

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 Competing Interests of Major Powers in the Middle East

freedom fighter. Similarly, the maiden

Most states in the Middle East visit of President Trump to the Middle
have been directly involved in East, especially Saudi Arabia, not just
the armed conflicts since 2011. heightened the fears of states that were
excluded from the IMCTC but also
concerned Russia, who has intelligence
In this regard, an Arab-Islamic-
and military relations with these states.
American Summit was held in Riyadh,
Saudi Arabia on May21-22, 2017, In is pertinent to mention that Russia
in which 55 Sunni majority Muslim has been strengthening relations with
states signed the communiqué to the states for combating terrorism –
fight terrorism.104 During the summit, Russian paratroopers conducted a joint
President Trump criticized Iran and counter-terrorism exercise with the
termed it as a state sponsor of terrorism Egyptian military – the post-Soviet,
in the region.105 Russia’s first military exercise with
Egypt. Similarly, Russia deployed a
The Islamic Military Alliance to Fight
naval flotilla off the Mediterranean
Terrorism (IMAFT) declared to
coast of Libya and it supports Field
operate in line with the UN and OIC
Marshal Khalifa Haftar, military leader
provisions on terrorism. The exclusion
of the Eastern faction in Libya.107
of Iran and Iraq from the IMAFT
reinforced the perception that it was The counter-terrorism cooperation
an alliance of Sunni states. The policy between the US and its allies and
of exclusion has contributed to signing between Russia and its allies has
of an anti-terrorism accord between the potential to escalate the existing
Iran and Iraq. The two states signed tensions and mistrust in the region.
a memorandum of understanding
to extend cooperation and exchange
experience in fighting terrorism and Conclusion
extremism, border security, education,
logistical, technical and military The Middle East, a volatile region,
support.106 has been facing immense challenges.
The regional states’ mutual distrust
Such alliances and pacts to fight and suspicions about each other
terrorism and extremism face perpetuate instability in the region.
definitional problems as the world While the strategic location and the
does not have a mutually accepted energy richness of the region has been
definition of terrorism. It is said that a contributing factor to attract outside
one country’s terrorist is another’s powers to expand their influence in

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the region, regional rivalries have been Russia and the US – make the Middle
harnessed by the outside powers by East a shatterbelt region. Much of
directly supporting the states or their the current instability is fueled by the
proxies. In this regard, the Syrian Syrian conflict, but whether resolution
case is the best example to illustrate of the Syrian conflict will address other
the involvement of regional as well as sources of instability is yet to be seen.
extra-regional states and the drastic
consequences of such involvement
for regional peace and stability. The The regional states’ mutual
inherent instability which is caused by distrust and suspicions
ethnic, tribal and sectarian conflicts, and about each other perpetuate
strategic competition between regional instability in the region.
as well as extra-regional powers –

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