Estimating Flood Frequency

M.J. Duncan, revised by John Fenwick 2005

Introduction

Flood frequency is the concept of the probable frequency of occurrence of a given

flood. For the design of engineering works, for example, it is not sufficient to say that
the maximum observed flood was, say, 900 m3/s; it is also necessary to say what is the
frequency of occurrence of this flood.

If the 900 m3/s flood referred to above is a size that occurs on average once in every
10 years, then for instance any bridge designed to cope with this would be under-
designed by most sensible standards, and we could expect that it might not last very
long. Normally the design problem is an economic one, involving the capital and on-
going costs of a conservatively large structure versus the greater risk of loss of a
smaller and cheaper one.

As well as engineering works like bridges, dams, etc, flood frequency information is
commonly applied to controlling land use and settlement on flood-prone areas, and
has many other applications.

There are several ways of describing flood frequency, all using statistical probability.

1. Assigning return periods to particular floods was traditionally used, but is an

unhelpful term when trying to explain its meaning to the public and others.
An example of a return period is when a flood has a 1 % probability of
occurring in a given year (i.e. 1 chance in 100) and is thus described as a 100-
year flood event. This term suggests the common but mistaken notion that
there should be an interval of 100 years between such events. In fact, the
probability of having two 100-year floods within 10 years is almost 10 %.
2. The annual exceedence probability (AEP) is also used. This is simply the
probability that a particular flood size will occur in any given year. As for the
example above, the 100-year flood will have an AEP of 1 % (or 1 chance in
100). Explaining the probability to the public in this way is usually better.
3. The probable maximum flood (PMF) concept is sometimes used for
engineering applications. Again, this is similar to the above two methods, and
often uses the 100-year / 1 % probability, as many designs are based on this.
However PMF also implies a lower probability than 1 %, and values as low as
0.1 % will be used for some applications. Trying to derive a PMF is usually
very risky unless there is a very long record.

For the purposes of this exercise we will use return period, but also use annual
exceedance probability, as this is the reciprocal of return period and the two terms are
thus simple to relate.
Method

1. Obtain a list of annual maximum flood flows for the site. Note that these must
be instantaneous values, i.e. not any sort of mean flow.
2. Rank them from largest to smallest
3. For each one, calculate the recurrence interval (T) according to the Gringorten
plotting position formula:
T = n + 0.12
m – 0.44
where: T = recurrence interval
n = total number of years of record used
m = magnitude or rank

4. Plot T vs. flood size (m3/s) on Gumbel Probability graph paper.

5. Fit a straight line by eye to the data. Disregard the largest flood or two if these
deviate from the line more than the smaller floods.
6. To estimate the flood frequency of a particular flood, go from the flood size
across the graph to the line, then drop down to the recurrence interval ordinate
to read the return period.
7. Calculate the reciprocal of the return period (1/return period) to get the annual
exceedance probability.

Example: Grey at Dobson 1968 to 1983

Year Peak discharge Magnitude (rank) Recurrence interval

m3/s (years)
m T
1970 4825 1 27
1977 4772 2 9.7
1969 4159 3 5.8
1972 4081 4 4.2
1975 4074 5 3.3
1980 3996 6 2.7
1973 3978 7 2.3
1979 3958 8 2.0
1982 3940 9 1.76
1974 3731 10 1.55
1968 3639 11 1.43
1976 3430 12 1.31
1981 3427 13 1.20
1978 3274 14 1.11
1971 2420 15 1.038

From the graph, the size of flood with a return period of 100 years or an annual
exceedence probability of 1 % is 7634 m3/s.
XF Plot 1968 to 1982
5460

5000 A
B
Flow m3/s

C
E D
G F
4000 H
I

K J
L
M

3000 N

2420 O
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
Annual prob. greater
A-O site 91401 Grey at Dobson Jul-1968 thru Dec-1982 Flow m3/s m=12

XF Table 1968 to 1982

Site 91401 Grey at Dobson
From 24-Jul-1968 11:45:00 to 31-Dec-1982 24:00:00
Data selected from months July to June inclusive

12 mth Recorded maximum (Alpha=0.440)

Partition Value measured ann. ret.
starts at Flow Prob. per
yyyymm yyyymmdd:hhmmss m3/s 1/y y
197007 19700831:131900 4899.1 A 0.037 27
197607 19770119:030000 4841.4 B 0.103 10
196807 19690413:155500 4203.1 C 0.169 6
197207 19721008:023000 4125.6 D 0.235 4
197407 19750402:071003 4117.8 E 0.302 3
197907 19800124:234500 4039.7 F 0.368 3
197307 19731121:202736 4021.6 G 0.434 2
198107 19820123:064500 3975.2 H 0.500 2
197807 19790506:211500 3908.5 I 0.566 2
197507 19760715:211500 3463.4 J 0.632 2
198007 19800826:200046 3417.5 K 0.698 1
197707 19780328:211102 3302.9 L 0.765 1
198207 19821225:211500 3242.6 M 0.831 1
196907 19690908:065936 2977.6 N 0.897 1
197107 19711003:202600 2420.5 O 0.963 1
Mean = 3797.1
 FRED Plot 1968 to 1982

9000

8000

7000
Flow m3/s

6000

5000

4000

3000

2420

Annual 0.02 0.01

prob. greater
0.05
site 91401 0.1Dec-1982 Flow m3/s m=12
0.2 Jul-1968 thru
0.5 Grey at Dobson
1 Gumbel Distn. Location & Scale= 3610. 479.6

FRED Plot -1968 to 2004

9000

8000

7000
Flow m3/s

6000

5000

4000

3000

2420
0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.02 0.01
1 Annual prob. greater
site 91401 Grey at Dobson Jul-1968 thru Oct-2004 Flow m3/s m=12
Gumbel Distn. Location & Scale= 3323. 759.6
 XF plot -1968 to 2004

9000

8000

7000
Flow m3/s

A
6000 B
C

5000 G F E D

H
K J I
4000 ON M L
P
RQ
S
T
WVU
YX
cbaZ
3000 f ed
g
2420 h

0.05 Annual 0.02 0.01

prob. greater
A-h site 91401
0.5 Grey at Dobson 0.1Oct-2004 Flow m3/s m=12
0.2 Jul-1968 thru
1
XF Table -1968 to 2004

~~~ NIWA Tideda ~~~ SunWater Demo 17-APR-2005 09:32

~~~ XFPLOT ~~~
Reading data from C:\Program Files\NIWA\Tideda\Working\EVENTS.DAT
(Source file is C:\aaJF\US visit 2004\Tideda Info\Tid Data\Gym.mtd)
Site 91401 Grey at Dobson
From 24-Jul-1968 11:45:00 to 12-Oct-2004 13:30:00
Data selected from months January to December inclusive

12 mth Recorded maximum (Alpha=0.440)

Partition Value measured ann. ret.
starts at Flow Prob. per
yyyymm yyyymmdd:hhmmss m3/s 1/y y
199701 19971216:120000 5950.8 A 0.015 66
198801 19880913:150000 5840.4 B 0.042 24
199801 19981019:221500 5670.0 C 0.069 14
197001 19700831:131900 4899.1 D 0.096 10
199401 19940105:023000 4844.5 E 0.123 8
197701 19770119:030000 4841.4 F 0.150 7
198401 19841123:204500 4814.3 G 0.177 6
198301 19830710:031500 4228.2 H 0.204 5
196901 19690413:155500 4203.1 I 0.231 4
197201 19721008:023000 4125.6 J 0.258 4
197501 19750402:071003 4117.8 K 0.284 4
198001 19800124:234500 4039.7 L 0.311 3
197301 19731121:202736 4021.6 M 0.338 3
197901 19791203:114301 4000.9 N 0.365 3
198201 19820123:064500 3975.2 O 0.392 3
199601 19961013:161500 3866.7 P 0.419 2
200001 20001228:150000 3809.5 Q 0.446 2
197401 19740414:210000 3771.7 R 0.473 2
196801 19681030:050800 3678.0 S 0.500 2
200201 20020618:033000 3517.4 T 0.527 2
197601 19760715:211500 3463.4 U 0.554 2
198101 19810920:143000 3448.9 V 0.581 2
199301 19930613:170000 3422.3 W 0.608 2
200101 20011207:050000 3342.7 X 0.635 2
197801 19780328:211102 3302.9 Y 0.662 2
200401 20040109:180000 3224.1 Z 0.689 1
200301 20030701:031500 3221.9 a 0.716 1
198901 19891215:222541 3217.7 b 0.742 1
199501 19950926:094500 3185.8 c 0.769 1
199201 19920809:113000 3177.6 d 0.796 1
199101 19910817:114500 3091.2 e 0.823 1
199901 19991006:200000 3070.0 f 0.850 1
199001 19900726:170000 2806.8 g 0.877 1
197101 19711003:202600 2420.5 h 0.904 1
198701 19870118:130000 2385.4 i 0.931 1
198601 19860406:163000 2364.9 j 0.958 1
198501 19850718:150000 1794.8 k 0.985 1
Mean = 3761.0
FRED Table -1968 to 2004
Site 91401 Grey at Dobson
From 24-Jul-1968 11:45:00 to 12-Oct-2004 13:30:00

Moments L1= 3761.0 L2= 526.5 T3= 0.104 T4= 0.187

L-moments estimates of distributions's parameters:
Location = 3322.5 Scale = 759.6 100yr/2.33yr = 1.812
Data selected from months January to December inclusive

12 mth Recorded maximum -- Gumbel Distribution --

partition value measured 1.96 ann. ret.
starts at Flow Flow std. prob. per.
yyyymm yyyymmdd:hhmmss m3/s m3/s dev. 1/y y
8569.2 1494.9 0.001 1000
6816.7 994.1 0.010 100
6286.4 845.1 0.020 50
199701 19971216:120000 5950.8 A 5950.8 752.1 0.031 32
198801 19880913:150000 5840.4 B 5840.4 721.8 0.036 28
199801 19981019:221500 5670.0 C 5670.0 675.4 0.044 22
5578.6 650.7 0.050 20
5031.9 507.3 0.100 10
197001 19700831:131900 4899.1 D 4899.1 474.0 0.118 8
199401 19940105:023000 4844.5 E 4844.5 460.6 0.126 8
197701 19770119:030000 4841.4 F 4841.4 459.8 0.127 8
198401 19841123:204500 4814.3 G 4814.3 453.2 0.131 8
4461.9 372.1 0.200 5
198301 19830710:031500 4228.2 H 4228.2 325.2 0.262 4
196901 19690413:155500 4203.1 I 4203.1 320.6 0.269 4
197201 19721008:023000 4125.6 J 4125.6 307.1 0.293 3
197501 19750402:071003 4117.8 K 4117.8 305.8 0.296 3
198001 19800124:234500 4039.7 L 4039.7 293.5 0.322 3
197301 19731121:202736 4021.6 M 4021.6 290.8 0.329 3
197901 19791203:114301 4000.9 N 4000.9 287.9 0.336 3
198201 19820123:064500 3975.2 O 3975.2 284.3 0.345 3
199601 19961013:161500 3866.7 P 3866.7 271.1 0.386 3
200001 20001228:150000 3809.5 Q 3809.5 265.4 0.409 2
197401 19740414:210000 3771.7 R 3771.7 262.1 0.425 2
3761.0 261.3 0.430 2.33
196801 19681030:050800 3678.0 S 3678.0 256.0 0.465 2
200201 20020618:033000 3517.4 T 3517.4 252.0 0.539 2
197601 19760715:211500 3463.4 U 3463.4 252.7 0.564 2
198101 19810920:143000 3448.9 V 3448.9 253.0 0.571 2
199301 19930613:170000 3422.3 W 3422.3 253.8 0.584 2
200101 20011207:050000 3342.7 X 3342.7 257.6 0.622 2
197801 19780328:211102 3302.9 Y 3302.9 260.2 0.642 2
200401 20040109:180000 3224.1 Z 3224.1 266.9 0.680 1
200301 20030701:031500 3221.9 a 3221.9 267.1 0.681 1
198901 19891215:222541 3217.7 b 3217.7 267.5 0.683 1
199501 19950926:094500 3185.8 c 3185.8 270.8 0.698 1
199201 19920809:113000 3177.6 d 3177.6 271.7 0.702 1
199101 19910817:114500 3091.2 e 3091.2 282.1 0.742 1
199901 19991006:200000 3070.0 f 3070.0 284.9 0.752 1
199001 19900726:170000 2806.8 g 2806.8 327.9 0.861 1
197101 19711003:202600 2420.5 h 2420.5 409.3 0.962 1
198701 19870118:130000 2385.4 i 2385.4 417.5 0.968 1
198601 19860406:163000 2364.9 j 2364.9 422.3 0.971 1
198501 19850718:150000 1794.8 k 1794.8 564.7 0.999 1
Mean = 3761.0

End of process