Chapter 11
Chapter 11
Chapter 11
C H A P T E R E L E V E N
11–1 Introduction
Not long ago, as noted in a recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis [8], a
savings bank headquartered in the northeastern United States experienced a real liquidity
crisis. Acting on rumors of a possible embezzlement of funds, some worried depositors
launched an old-fashioned “run” on the bank. Flooding into the institution’s Philadelphia
and New York City branches, some frightened customers yanked out close to 13 percent of
the savings bank’s deposits in less than a week, sending management scrambling to find
enough cash to meet the demands of concerned depositors. While the bank appeared to
weather the storm in time, the event reminds us of at least two things: (1) how much
financial institutions depend upon public confidence to survive and prosper, and (2) how
quickly the essential item called “liquidity” can be eroded when the public, even tem-
porarily, loses its confidence in one or more financial institutions.
One of the most important tasks the management of any financial institution faces is
ensuring adequate liquidity at all times, no matter what emergencies may appear. A finan-
cial firm is considered to be “liquid” if it has ready access to immediately spendable funds
at reasonable cost at precisely the time those funds are needed. This suggests that a liquid
financial firm either has the right amount of immediately spendable funds on hand when
they are required or can raise liquid funds in timely fashion by borrowing or selling assets.
Indeed, lack of adequate liquidity can be one of the first signs that a financial institu-
tion is in trouble. For example, a troubled bank that is losing deposits will likely be forced
to dispose of some of its safer, more liquid assets. Other lending institutions may become
347
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
348 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
increasingly reluctant to lend the troubled firm any new funds without additional security
or the promise of a higher rate of interest, which may reduce the earnings of the belea-
guered institution and threaten it with failure.
The cash shortages that some financial-service providers experience make clear that
liquidity needs cannot be ignored. A financial firm can be closed if it cannot raise suffi-
cient liquidity even though, technically, it may still be solvent. For example, during the
1990s, the Federal Reserve forced the closure of the $10 billion Southeast Bank of
Miami because it couldn’t come up with enough liquidity to repay the loans it had
received from the Fed. Moreover, the competence of liquidity managers is an important
barometer of management’s overall effectiveness in achieving any institution’s goals. So,
let’s begin our journey and see how important quality liquidity management is to the
success of a financial firm.
Dividend
Deposit Volume of Repayments Other
payments
⫺ withdrawals ⫺ acceptable ⫺ of ⫺ operating ⫺
to
1outflows2 loan requests borrowings expenses
stockholders
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
TABLE 11–1
Supplies of Liquid Funds Typically Come From: Demands for Liquidity Typically Arise From:
Sources of Demand
and Supply for Incoming customer deposits Customer deposit withdrawals
Liquidity for a Revenues from the sale of nondeposit services Credit requests from quality loan customers
Customer loan repayments Repayment of nondeposit borrowings
Depository
Sales of assets Operating expenses and taxes incurred in
Institution Borrowings from the money market producing and selling services
Payment of stockholder cash dividends
When the demand for liquidity exceeds its supply (i.e., Lt < 0), management must prepare
for a liquidity deficit, deciding when and where to raise additional funds. On the other hand,
if at any point in time the supply of liquidity exceeds all liquidity demands (i.e., Lt > 0),
management must prepare for a liquidity surplus, deciding when and where to profitably
invest surplus liquid funds until they are needed to cover future cash needs.
Liquidity has a critical time dimension. Some liquidity needs are immediate or nearly so.
For example, in the case of a depository institution several large CDs may be due to mature
tomorrow, and the customers may have indicated they plan to withdraw these deposits
rather than simply rolling them over into new deposits. Sources of funds that can be
accessed immediately must be used to meet these near-term liquidity pressures.
Key URL Longer-term liquidity demands arise from seasonal, cyclical, and trend factors. For exam-
Data on the liquidity ple, liquid funds are generally in greater demand during the fall and summer coincident
positions of individual
with school, holidays, and travel plans. Anticipating these longer-term liquidity needs
depository institutions
may be found in the managers can draw upon a wider array of funds sources than is true for immediate liquidity
FDIC’s Statistics for needs, such as selling off accumulated liquid assets, aggressively advertising the institu-
Depository Institutions tion’s current menu of services, or negotiating long-term borrowings of reserves from other
at www3.fdic.gov/sdi if financial firms. Of course, not all demands for liquidity need to be met by selling assets or
you specify each
borrowing new money. For example, just the right amount of new deposits may flow in or
institution’s name, city
and state, certificate loan repayments from borrowing customers may occur close to the date new funds are
number, or bank needed. Timing is critical to liquidity management: Financial managers must plan carefully
holding company how, when, and where liquid funds can be raised.
(BHC) number. Most liquidity problems arise from outside the financial firm as a result of the activities
of customers. In effect, customers’ liquidity problems gravitate toward their liquidity sup-
pliers. If a business is short liquid reserves, for example, it will ask for a loan or draw down
its account balances, either of which may require the firm’s financial institution to come
up with additional funds. A dramatic example of this phenomenon occurred in the wake
of the worldwide stock market crash in October 1987. Investors who had borrowed heav-
ily to buy stock on margin were forced to come up with additional funds to secure their
stock loans. They went to their lending institutions in huge numbers, turning a liquidity
crisis in the capital market into a liquidity crisis for lenders.
Factoid The essence of liquidity management problems for financial institutions may be
Did you know that a described in two succinct statements:
serious liquidity crisis
inside the United States 1. Rarely are demands for liquidity equal to the supply of liquidity at any particular moment in
in 1907, which followed time. The financial firm must continually deal with either a liquidity deficit or a liquid-
several other liquidity
ity surplus.
crises in the 19th
century, led to the 2. There is a trade-off between liquidity and profitability. The more resources are tied up in
creation of the U.S. readiness to meet demands for liquidity, the lower is that financial firm’s expected prof-
central bank, the itability (other factors held constant).
Federal Reserve System,
to prevent liquidity Thus, ensuring adequate liquidity is a never-ending problem for management that will
problems in the future? always have significant implications for the financial firm’s performance.
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
350 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
Key URLs Moreover, resolving liquidity problems subjects a financial institution to costs, includ-
Financial firms provide ing the interest cost on borrowed funds, the transactions cost of time and money in find-
liquidity management
ing adequate liquid funds, and an opportunity cost in the form of future earnings that must
services not only for
themselves but for their be forgone when earning assets are sold in order to meet liquidity needs. Clearly, manage-
customers as well. ment must weigh these costs against the immediacy of the institution’s liquidity needs. If
Descriptions of such a financial firm winds up with excess liquidity, its management must be prepared to invest
services may be found at those excess funds immediately to avoid incurring an opportunity cost from idle funds not
www.uboc.com and
generating earnings.
www.firstcapitalbank.
com/%7Epeoria/ From a slightly different vantage point, we could say that the management of liquidity
business/autosweep.asp. is subject to the risks that interest rates will change (interest rate risk) and that liquid funds
will not be available in the volume needed (availability risk). If market interest rates rise,
assets that the financial firm plans to sell to raise liquid funds will decline in value, and
some must be sold at a loss. Not only will fewer liquid funds be raised from the sale of those
assets, but the losses incurred will reduce earnings as well. Then, too, raising liquid funds
by borrowing will cost more as interest rates rise, and some forms of borrowed liquidity may
no longer be available. If lenders perceive a financial institution to be more risky than
before, it will be forced to pay higher interest rates to borrow liquidity, and some lenders
will simply refuse to make liquid funds available at all.
Concept Check
11–1. What are the principal sources of liquidity demand bank assets are projected to be $18 million, (f) new
for a financial firm? deposits should total $670 million, (g) borrowings
11–2. What are the principal sources from which the from the money market are expected to be about
supply of liquidity comes? $43 million, (h) nondeposit service fees should
11–3. Suppose that a bank faces the following cash amount to $27 million, (i) previous bank borrowings
inflows and outflows during the coming week: totaling $23 million are scheduled to be repaid, and
(a) deposit withdrawals are expected to total (j) a dividend payment to bank stockholders of $140
$33 million, (b) customer loan repayments are million is scheduled. What is this bank’s projected
expected to amount to $108 million, (c) operating net liquidity position for the coming week?
expenses demanding cash payment will probably 11–4. When is a financial institution adequately liquid?
approach $51 million, (d) acceptable new loan 11–5. Why do financial firms face significant liquidity
requests should reach $294 million, (e) sales of management problems?
the largest funds-supplying customers and the holders of large unused credit lines to deter-
mine if and when withdrawals will be made and to make sure adequate funds will be avail-
able when demand for funds occurs.
Filmtoid Asset conversion strategy is used mainly by smaller financial institutions that find it a
What 1980s thriller, less risky approach to liquidity management than relying on borrowings. But it is not a
starring Kris
Kristofferson and Jane
costless approach to liquidity management. First, selling assets means loss of future earn-
Fonda, aligned murder ings those assets would have generated had they not been sold off. Thus, there is an oppor-
with the liquidity tunity cost to storing liquidity in assets when those assets must be sold. Most asset sales also
problems of Borough involve transactions costs (commissions) paid to security brokers. Moreover, the assets in
National Bank created question may need to be sold in a market experiencing declining prices, increasing the risk
by Arab withdrawals of
Eurodeposits?
of substantial losses. Management must take care that assets with the least profit potential
Answer: Rollover. are sold first in order to minimize the opportunity cost of future earnings forgone. Selling
assets to raise liquidity also tends to weaken the appearance of the balance sheet because
the assets sold are often low-risk government securities that give the impression the finan-
cial firm is financially strong. Finally, liquid assets generally carry the lowest rates of return
of all assets. Investing in liquid assets means forgoing higher returns on other assets that
might be acquired.
Borrowing Liquidity—
The Principal Options
When a liquidity deficit arises, the financial firm can borrow funds from:
1. Federal funds borrowings—reserves from other lenders that can be accessed immediately.
2. Selling liquid, low-risk securities under a repurchase agreement (RP) to financial institutions having tem-
porary surpluses of funds. RPs generally carry a fixed rate of interest and maturity, though continuing-
contract RPs remain in force until either the borrower or lender terminates the loan.
3. Issuing jumbo ($100,000+) negotiable CDs to major corporations, governmental units, and wealthy indi-
viduals for periods ranging from a few days to several months.
4. Issuing Eurocurrency deposits to multinational banks and other corporations at interest rates deter-
mined by the demand and supply for these short-term international deposits.
5. Securing advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which provides loans to institu-
tions lending in the real-estate-backed loan market.
6. Borrowing reserves from the discount window of the central bank (such as the Federal Reserve or the
Bank of Japan)—usually available within a matter of minutes provided the borrowing institution has col-
lateral on hand and a signed borrowing authorization.
asset portfolio unchanged if it is satisfied with the assets it currently holds. In contrast,
selling assets to provide liquidity for liability-derived demands, such as deposit with-
drawals, shrinks the size of a financial firm as its asset holdings decline. Finally, as we saw
in Chapter 7, liability management comes with its own control lever—the interest rate
offered to borrow funds. If the borrowing institution needs more funds, it merely raises its
offer rate until the requisite amount of funds flow in. If fewer funds are required, the
financial firm’s offer rate may be lowered.
Key URLs The principal sources of borrowed liquidity for a depository institution include jumbo
Research on liquidity ($100,000+) negotiable CDs, federal funds borrowings, repurchase agreements (in which
management issues can securities are sold temporarily with an agreement to buy them back), Eurocurrency bor-
often be found in
studies published by the rowings, advances from the Federal Home Loan Banks, and borrowings at the discount
Federal Reserve Bank of window of the central bank in each nation or region. (See the box entitled “Borrowing
St. Louis at www. Liquidity—The Principal Options” for a description of these instruments.) Liability man-
research.stlouisfed. agement techniques are used most extensively by the largest banks that often borrow close
org/wp/, the Federal to 100 percent of their liquidity needs.
Reserve Bank of New
York at www.ny.frb.org Borrowing liquidity is the most risky approach to solving liquidity problems (but also
(see Economic Research carries the highest expected return) because of the volatility of interest rates and the rapid-
link), and the Federal ity with which the availability of credit can change. Often financial-service providers must
Reserve Bank of purchase liquidity when it is most difficult to do so, both in cost and availability. Borrow-
Chicago at www. ing cost is always uncertain, which adds greater uncertainty to earnings. Moreover, a finan-
chicagofed.org/
publications/. cial firm that gets into trouble is usually most in need of borrowed liquidity, particularly
because knowledge of its difficulties spreads and customers begin to withdraw their funds.
At the same time, other financial firms become less willing to lend to the troubled insti-
tution due to the risk involved.
354 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
other anticipated liquidity needs are backstopped by advanced arrangements for lines of
credit from potential suppliers of funds. Unexpected cash needs are typically met from
near-term borrowings. Longer-term liquidity needs can be planned for and the funds to
meet these needs can be parked in short-term and medium-term assets that will provide
cash as those liquidity needs arise.
Concept Check
11–6. What are the principal differences among asset 11–7. What guidelines should management keep in
liquidity management, liability management, and mind when it manages a financial firm’s liquidity
balanced liquidity management? position?
Factoid firms make sure their liquidity reserves include both a planned component, consisting of the
Among the most rapidly reserves called for by the latest forecast, and a protective component, consisting of an extra
growing sources of
margin of liquid reserves over those dictated by the most recent forecast. The protective
borrowed liquidity
among U.S. financial liquidity component may be large or small, depending on management’s philosophy and
institutions are attitude toward risk—that is, how much chance of running a “cash-out” management
advances of funds by wishes to accept.
the Federal Home Loan Let us turn now to the most popular methods for estimating a financial institution’s
Banks which are
liquidity needs. For illustrative purposes, we will focus on the problem of estimating a
relatively low in cost
and more stable with bank’s liquidity needs because banks typically face the greatest liquidity management
longer maturities than challenges of any financial firm. However, the principles we will explore apply to other
most deposits. By the financial-service providers as well.
21st century close to
half of all U.S. banks The Sources and Uses of Funds Approach
had FHLB advances
outstanding. The sources and uses of funds method for estimating liquidity needs begins with two sim-
ple facts:
1. In the case of a bank, for example, liquidity rises as deposits increase and loans decrease.
2. Alternatively, liquidity declines when deposits decrease and loans increase.
Whenever sources and uses of liquidity do not match, there is a liquidity gap, measured
by the size of the difference between sources and uses of funds. When sources of liquidity
(e.g., increasing deposits or decreasing loans) exceed uses of liquidity (e.g., decreasing
deposits or increasing loans), the financial firm will have a positive liquidity gap (surplus).
Its surplus liquid funds must be quickly invested in earning assets until they are needed to
cover future cash needs. On the other hand, when uses exceed sources, a financial institu-
tion faces a negative liquidity gap (deficit). It now must raise funds from the cheapest and
most timely sources available.
The key steps in the sources and uses of funds approach, using a bank as an example, are:
1. Loans and deposits must be forecast for a given liquidity planning period.
2. The estimated change in loans and deposits must be calculated for that same period.
3. The liquidity manager must estimate the net liquid funds’ surplus or deficit for the
planning period by comparing the estimated change in loans (or other uses of funds) to
the estimated change in deposits (or other funds sources).
Banks, for example, use a wide variety of statistical techniques, supplemented by man-
agement’s judgment and experience, to prepare forecasts of deposits and loans. For exam-
ple, a bank’s economics department or its liquidity managers might develop the following
forecasting models:
356 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
Factoid Estimated
Did you know that change in total projected growth estimated
is a
robberies of cash from
banks have been on the deposits for function C£in personal income≥, £increase in≥,
rise again in recent the coming of in the economy retail sales
years due, in part, to period
banking offices that
stress customer current rate of
convenience and easy projected yield on
growth of the estimated rate
access rather than § ¥, £ money market ≥, and ¢ ≤S
security? Does this seem nation's money of inflation
deposits
to make sense as a supply
business decision? Why?
Using the forecasts of loans and deposits generated by the foregoing relationships, man-
agement could then estimate the bank’s need for liquidity by calculating as follows:
TABLE 11–2
Trend Estimate Seasonal Cyclical Estimated
Forecasting Deposits
Deposit Forecast for for Deposits Element* Element** Total Deposits
and Loans with the
Sources and Uses of January, Week 1 $1,210 −4 −6 $1,200
Funds Approach January, Week 2 1,212 −54 −58 1,100
January, Week 3 1,214 −121 −93 1,000
(figures in millions of
January, Week 4 1,216 −165 −101 950
dollars) February, Week 1 1,218 +70 −38 1,250
February, Week 2 1,220 +32 −52 1,200
*The seasonal element compares the average level of deposits and loans for each week over the past 10 years to the average level of
deposits and loans for the final week of December over the preceding 10 years.
**The cyclical element reflects the difference between the expected deposit and loan levels in each week during the preceding year
(measured by the trend and seasonal elements) and the actual volume of total deposits and total loans the bank posted that week.
Table 11–3 shows how we can take estimated deposit and loan figures, such as those
given in column 4 of Table 11–2, and use them to estimate expected liquidity deficits and
surpluses in the period ahead. In this instance, the liquidity manager has estimated liquid-
ity needs for the next six weeks. Columns 1 and 2 in Table 11–3 merely repeat the esti-
mated total deposit and total loan figures from column 4 in Table 11–2. Columns 3 and 4
in Table 11–3 calculate the change in total deposits and total loans from one week to the
next. Column 5 shows differences between change in loans and change in deposits each
week. When deposits fall and loans rise, a liquidity deficit is more likely to occur. When
deposits grow and loans decline, a liquidity surplus is more likely.
As Table 11–3 reveals, our bank has a projected liquidity deficit over the next three
weeks—$150 million next week, $200 million the third week, and $100 million in the
fourth week—because its loans are growing while its deposit levels are declining. Due to a
forecast of rising deposits and falling loans in the fifth week, a liquidity surplus of $550 mil-
lion is expected, followed by a $200 million liquidity deficit in week 6. What liquidity man-
agement decisions must be made over the six-week period shown in Table 11–3? The
liquidity manager must prepare to raise new funds in weeks 2, 3, 4, and 6 from the cheapest
and most reliable funds sources and to profitably invest the expected funds surplus in week 5.
TABLE 11–3 Forecasting Liquidity Deficits and Surpluses with the Sources and Uses of Funds Approach
(figures in millions of dollars)
358 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
Management can now begin planning which sources of liquid funds to draw upon, first
evaluating the bank’s stock of liquid assets to see which assets are likely to be available for
use and then determining if adequate sources of borrowed funds are also likely to be avail-
able. For example, the bank probably has already set up lines of credit for borrowing from
its principal correspondent banks and wants to be sure these credit lines are still adequate
to meet the projected amount of borrowing needed.
establishing a multidimensional relationship that will bring in additional fee income and
increase the customer’s dependence on (and, therefore, loyalty to) the lending institution.
This reasoning suggests that management must try to estimate the maximum possible fig-
ure for total loans and hold in liquid reserves or borrowing capacity the full amount (100
percent) of the difference between the actual amount of loans outstanding and the maxi-
mum potential for total loans.
Combining both loan and deposit liquidity requirements, this bank’s total liquidity
requirement would be:
Total liquidity requirement = 0.95 × (Hot money funds
= Deposit and nondeposit − Required legal reserves held
liability liquidity requirement behind hot money deposits)
and loan liquidity requirement + 0.30 × (Vulnerable deposits and
nondeposit funds − Required legal (11–5)
reserves) + 0.15 × (Stable deposits
and nondeposit funds − Required legal
reserves) + 1.00 × (Potential loans
outstanding − Actual loans outstanding)
Admittedly, the deposit and loan liquidity requirements that make up the above equation
are subjective estimates that rely heavily on management’s judgment, experience, and atti-
tude toward risk.
A numerical example of this liquidity management method is shown in Table 11–4.
First National Bank has broken down its deposit and nondeposit liabilities into hot
money, vulnerable funds, and stable (core) funds, amounting to $25 million, $24 million,
and $100 million, respectively. The bank’s loans total $135 million currently, but recently
have been as high as $140 million, and loans are projected to grow at a 10 percent annual
rate. Thus, within the coming year, total loans might reach as high as $154 million, or
$140 million + (0.10 × $140 million), which would be $19 million higher than they are
now. Applying the percentages of deposits that management wishes to hold in liquid
reserves, we find the bank needs more than $60 million in total liquidity, consisting of
both liquid assets and borrowing capacity.
TABLE 11–4
A. First National Bank finds that its current deposits and nondeposit liabilities break down as follows:
Estimating Liquidity
Needs with the Hot money $ 25 million
Structure of Funds Vulnerable funds (including the largest deposit
Method and nondeposit liability accounts) $ 24 million
Stable (core) funds $100 million
First National’s management wants to keep a 95% reserve behind its hot money deposits (less the 3%
legal reserve requirement behind many of these deposits) and nondeposit liabilities, a 30% liquidity
reserve in back of its vulnerable deposits and borrowings (less required reserves), and a 15% liquidity
reserve behind its core deposit and nondeposit funds (less required reserves).
B. First National Bank’s loans total $135 million but recently have been as high as $140 million, with a trend
growth rate of about 10 percent a year. The bank wishes to be ready at all times to honor customer
demands for all those loans that meet its quality standards.
C. The bank’s total liquidity requirement is:
Many financial firms like to use probabilities in deciding how much liquidity to hold.
Under this refinement of the structure of funds approach, the liquidity manager will want
to define the best and the worst possible liquidity positions his or her financial institution
might find itself in and assign probabilities to each. For example,
1. The worst possible liquidity position. Suppose deposit growth at the bank we have been fol-
lowing falls below management’s expectations, so that actual deposit totals sometimes go
below the lowest points on the bank’s historical minimum deposit growth track. More-
over, suppose loan demand rises significantly above management’s expectations, so that
loan demand sometimes goes beyond the high points of the bank’s loan growth track. In
this instance, the bank would face maximum pressure on its available liquid reserves
because deposit growth would not likely be able to fund all the loans customers were
demanding. In this worst situation the liquidity manager would have to prepare for a siz-
able liquidity deficit and develop a plan for raising substantial amounts of new funds.
2. The best possible liquidity position. Suppose deposit growth turns out to be above man-
agement’s expectations, so that it touches the highest points in the bank’s deposit
growth record. Moreover, suppose loan demand turns out to be below management’s
expectations, so that loan demand grows along a minimum path that touches the low
points in the bank’s loan growth track. In this case, the bank would face minimum pres-
sure on its liquid reserves because deposit growth probably could fund nearly all the
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
quality loans that walk in the door. In this “best” situation, it is likely that a liquidity
surplus will develop. The liquidity manager must have a plan for investing these surplus
funds in order to maximize the bank’s return.
Of course, neither the worst nor the best possible outcome is likely for both deposit and
loan growth. The most likely outcome lies somewhere between these extremes. Many
financial firms like to calculate their expected liquidity requirement, based on the probabili-
ties they assign to different possible outcomes. For example, suppose the liquidity manager
of the bank we have been following considers the institution’s liquidity situation next
week as likely to fall into one of three possible situations:
Estimated Probability
Estimated Estimated Liquidity Assigned by
Average Volume Average Volume Surplus or Management
Possible Liquidity of Deposits of Loans Deficit Position to Each
Outcomes Next Week Next Week Next Week Possible
for Next Week (millions) (millions) (millions) Outcome
Best possible liquidity
position (maximum
deposits, minimum
loans) $170 $110 +$60 15%
Liquidity position
bearing the highest
probability $150 $140 +$10 60%
Worst possible liquidity
position (minimum
deposits, maximum
loans) $130 $150 −$20 25%
Thus, management sees the worst possible situation next week as one characterized by a
$20 million liquidity deficit, but this least desirable outcome is assigned a probability of only
25 percent. Similarly, the best possible outcome would be a $60 million liquidity surplus.
However, this is judged to have only a 15 percent probability of occurring. More likely is the
middle ground—a $10 million liquidity surplus—with a management-estimated probability
of 60 percent.
What, then, is the bank’s expected liquidity requirement? We can find the answer from:
Estimated liquidity
Expected
surplus or
liquidity ⫽ Probability of Outcome A ⫻ § ¥
deficit in
requirement
Outcome A
(11–6)
Estimated liquidity
surplus or
⫹ Probability of Outcome B ⫻ § ¥
deficit in
Outcome B
⫹ p ⫹ p
for all possible outcomes, subject to the restriction that the sum of all probabilities
assigned by management must be 1.
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
362 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
Using this formula, this bank’s expected liquidity requirement must be:
Expected
0.15 ⫻ 1⫹$60 million2 ⫹ 0.60 ⫻ 1⫹$10 million2
liquidity ⫽
⫹ 0.25 ⫻ 1⫺$20 million2
requirement
⫽ ⫹$10 million
On average, management should plan for a $10 million liquidity surplus next week and
begin now to review the options for investing this expected surplus. Of course, management
would also do well to have a contingency plan in case the worst possible outcome occurs.
maturities with penalties for early withdrawal. This ratio measures how stable a fund-
ing base each institution possesses; a decline suggests greater deposit stability and a
lesser need for liquidity.
10. Loan commitments ratio: Unused loan commitments ÷ total assets, which measures
the volume of promises a lender has made to its customers to provide credit up to a
prespecified amount over a given time period. These commitments will not appear
on the lender’s balance sheet until a loan is actually “taken down” (i.e., drawn upon)
by the borrower. Thus, with loan commitments there is risk as to the exact amount
and timing when some portion of loan commitments become actual loans. The
lender must be prepared with sufficient liquidity to accommodate a variety of “take-
down” scenarios that borrowers may demand. A rise in this ratio implies greater
future liquidity needs.
Table 11–5 indicates recent trends in a few of these liquidity indicators among U.S.-insured
banks. In general, most liquidity indicators appear to show a recent decline in liquidity, espe-
cially those indicators that track holdings of liquid assets. We note too that the last indica-
tor ratio suggests that loan commitments have been rising relative to industry assets,
possibly leading to bigger future liquidity demands.
One reason for the apparent decline in industry liquidity is consolidation—smaller
depository institutions being absorbed by larger institutions. With fewer, but much larger,
depositories in the industry, chances are greater that money withdrawn from one cus-
tomer’s account will wind up in the account of another customer of the same bank. Thus,
from the vantage point of the whole institution daily transactions more frequently “net
out” with no overall change in a depository’s cash position.
Some analysts argue that the continuing shift in deposit accounts toward longer-maturity
deposits that tend to be more stable and experience fewer unexpected customer withdrawals
has lowered industry liquidity needs. Another important factor is the recent decline in legal
reserve requirements imposed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the
world, thus lowering legal cash needs. Moreover, there are more ways to raise liquidity today
and advancing technology has made it easier to anticipate liquidity needs and prepare for
them. Finally, the appearance of a more stable economy may have dampened the need for
large holdings of liquid reserves.
The first five liquidity indicators discussed above focus principally upon assets or
stored liquidity. The last five focus mainly upon liabilities or on future commitments to
lend money and are aimed mainly at forms of purchased liquidity. These indicators tend
to be highly sensitive to season of the year and stage of the business cycle. For example,
TABLE 11–5
Selected Liquidity Indicators 1985 1989 1993 1996 2001 2003 2005*
Recent Trends in
Liquidity Indicators Cash Position Indicator:
for FDIC-Insured Cash and deposits due from
depository institutions ÷ total assets 12.5% 10.6% 6.3% 7.3% 6.0% 4.6% 4.4%
U.S. Banks
Net Federal Funds Position:
Source: Federal Deposit (Federal funds sold − Federal funds
Insurance Corporation purchased) ÷ total assets −3.3 −3.9 −3.4 −3.4 −2.8 −1.2 −2.9
(www.fdic.gov).
Capacity Ratio:
Net loans and leases ÷ total assets 58.9 60.7 56.6 60.2 58.2 58.6 58.0
Deposit Composition Ratio:
Demand deposits ÷ time deposits 68.4 44.8 52.4 58.2 44.4 42.2 36.6
Loan Commitments Ratio:
Unused loan commitments ÷
total assets NA NA NA 33.1 49.9 70.9 66.9
Notes: *Indicates that figures shown in the 2005 column are for June 30, 2005. NA indicates the missing figures are not available.
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364 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
liquidity indicators often decline in boom periods under pressure from rising loan demand,
only to rise again during the ensuing business recession.
We must also note that using industrywide averages for each liquidity indicator can be
misleading. Each financial institution’s liquidity position must be judged relative to peer
institutions of similar size operating in similar markets. Moreover, liquidity managers usu-
ally focus on changes in their institution’s liquidity indicators rather than on the level of
each indicator. They want to know whether liquidity is rising or falling and why.
Concept Check
11–8. How does the sources and uses of funds approach 5 percent liquidity reserve. The thrift expects its
help a manager estimate a financial institution’s loans to grow 8 percent annually; its loans cur-
need for liquidity? rently total $117 million but have recently reached
11–9. Suppose that a bank estimates its total deposits $132 million. If reserve requirements on liabilities
for the next six months in millions of dollars will currently stand at 3 percent, what is this deposi-
be, respectively, $112, $132, $121, $147, $151, and tory institution’s total liquidity requirement?
$139, while its loans (also in millions of dollars) will 11–12. What is the liquidity indicator approach to liquidity
total an estimated $87, $95, $102, $113, $101, and management?
$124, respectively, over the same six months. 11–13. First National Bank posts the following balance
Under the sources and uses of funds approach, sheet entries on today’s date: Net loans and
when does this bank face liquidity deficits, if any? leases, $3,502 million; cash and deposits held
11–10. What steps are needed to carry out the structure at other banks, $633 million; Federal funds sold,
of funds approach to liquidity management? $48 million; U.S. government securities, $185 mil-
11–11. Suppose that a thrift institution’s liquidity division lion; Federal funds purchased, $62 million; demand
estimates that it holds $19 million in hot money deposits, $988 million; time deposits, $2,627 million;
deposits and other IOUs against which it will hold and total assets, $4,446 million. How many liquidity
an 80 percent liquidity reserve, $54 million in vul- indicators can you calculate from these figures?
nerable funds against which it plans to hold a 11–14. How can the discipline of the marketplace be
25 percent liquidity reserve, and $112 million in used as a guide for making liquidity management
stable or core funds against which it will hold a decisions?
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4. Loss sales of assets. Has the institution recently been forced to sell assets in a hurry, with
significant losses, in order to meet demands for liquidity? Is this a rare event or has it
become a frequent occurrence?
5. Meeting commitments to credit customers. Has the institution been able to honor all poten-
tially profitable requests for loans from its valued customers? Or have liquidity pressures
compelled management to turn down some otherwise acceptable credit applications?
6. Borrowings from the central bank. Has the institution been forced to borrow in larger vol-
ume and more frequently from the central bank in its home territory (such as the Fed-
eral Reserve or Bank of Japan) lately? Have central bank officials begun to question the
institution’s borrowings?
If the answer to any of the foregoing questions is yes, management needs to take a close
look at its liquidity management policies and practices to determine whether changes are
needed.
Legal Reserves
The manager of the money position is responsible for ensuring that the institution main-
tains an adequate level of legal reserves—assets the law and central bank regulation say
must be held in support of the institution’s deposits. In the United States, only two kinds
of assets can be used for this purpose: (1) cash in the vault; and (2) deposits held in a reserve
account at the Federal Reserve bank in the region (or, for smaller depository institutions,
deposits held with a Fed-approved institution that passes reserves through to the Fed).
Incidentally, the smallest U.S. depository institutions (those holding $7.8 million or less
in reservable deposits in 2005–6) are generally exempt from legal reserve requirements.
This exemption amount is adjusted annually to help reduce the impact of inflation on
deposit growth. Legal reserve requirements apply to all qualified depository institutions,
including commercial and savings banks, savings and loan associations, credit unions, and
agencies and branches of foreign banks that offer transaction deposits or nonpersonal
(business) time deposits or borrow through Eurocurrency liabilities.
366 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
EXHIBIT 11–1 Federal Reserve rules for calculating and maintaining required legal reserves
Federal Reserve Rules (Regulation D):
for Calculating a
Weekly Reporting
Bank’s Required Week 1 Week 2 Week 3
Legal Reserves
T W Th F S Su M T W Th F S Su M T W Th F S Su M
T W Th F S Su M T W Th F S Su M T W Th F S Su M T W
weeks later. This interval of time is known as the reserve computation period. The daily
average amount of vault cash each depository institution holds is also figured over the same
two-week computation period. Exhibit 11–1 illustrates one computation cycle. For large
institutions another cycle begins immediately.2
Reserve Maintenance
After the money position manager calculates daily average deposits and the institution’s
required legal reserves, he or she must maintain that required legal reserve on deposit with
the Federal Reserve bank in the region (less the amount of daily average vault cash held),
on average, over a 14-day period stretching from a Thursday to a Wednesday. This is
known as the reserve maintenance period. Notice from Exhibit 11–1 that this period
begins 30 days after the beginning of the reserve computation period for deposits and other
reservable liabilities. Using LRA, the money position manager has a 16-day lag following
the computation period and preceding the maintenance period. This period provides time
for money position management planning.
Reserve Requirements
How much money must be held in legal reserves? That answer depends upon the volume and
mix of each institution’s deposits and also on the particular time period, since the amount of
deposits subject to legal reserve requirements changes each year. For transaction deposits—
2
The process used for calculating legal reserve requirements described here applies to the largest U.S. depository
institutions, known as weekly reporters, that must report their cash positions to the Federal Reserve banks on a weekly
basis. The more numerous, but smaller U.S. banks and qualifying thrift institutions are known as quarterly reporters. This
latter group of institutions have their daily average deposit balances figured over a seven-day computation period beginning
on the third Tuesday in the months of March, June, September, and December, each representing one-quarter of the
calendar year. These smaller U.S. depository institutions, then, must settle their reserve position at the required level
weekly based on a legal reserve requirement determined once each quarter of the year. In contrast, the largest U.S.
depositories must meet (settle) their legal reserve requirement over successive two-week periods (biweekly).
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checking accounts, NOWs, and other deposits that can be used to make payments—the
reserve requirement in 2005–6 was 3 percent of the end-of-the-day daily average amount held
over a two-week period, from $7.8 million to $48.3 million. Transaction deposits over
$48.3 million held at the same depository institution carried a 10 percent reserve requirement.
The $48.3 million figure, known as the reserve tranche, is changed once each year based
upon the annual rate of U.S. deposit growth. Under the dictates of the Depository Insti-
tutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980, the Federal Reserve Board must
calculate the June-to-June annual growth rate of all deposits subject to legal reserve
requirements. The dollar cut-off point above which reserve requirements on transaction
deposits become 10 percent instead of 3 percent is then adjusted by 80 percent of the cal-
culated annual deposit growth rate. This annual legal reserve adjustment is designed to off-
set the impact of inflation, which over time would tend to push depository institutions
into higher reserve requirement categories.
3
Net transaction deposits include the sum total of all deposits on which a depositor is permitted to make withdrawals by
check, telephone, or other transferable instrument minus any cash items in the process of collection, and deposits held with
other depository institutions. Nonpersonal (business) time deposits and Eurocurrency liabilities also may, from time to time,
be subject to legal reserve requirements. Nonpersonal time deposits include savings deposits, CDs, and other time accounts
held by a customer who is not a natural person (i.e., not an individual, family, or sole proprietorship). Eurocurrency liabilities
are mainly the sum of net borrowings from foreign offices.
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368 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
TABLE 11–6
The applicable percentage reserve requirements imposed by the Federal Reserve Board on banks selling
Sample Calculation of deposits in the United States are as follows:*
Legal Reserve
Requirements in the The first $7.8 million of net transaction deposits are subject to a 0 percent legal reserve requirement (known
United States as the “exemption amount”). The volume of net transaction deposits over $7.8 million up to $48.3 million
carries a 3 percent reserve requirement (known as the “low reserve tranche”), while the amount over $48.3
Source: Board of Governors of million is subject to a 10 percent reserve requirement. Nontransaction reserveable liabilities (including
the Federal Reserve System. nonpersonal time deposits and Eurocurrency liabilities) are subject to a 0 percent reserve requirement.**
First National’s net transaction deposits averaged $100 million over the 14-day reserve computation period
Key URLs
while its nontransaction reserveable liabilities had a daily average of $200 million over the same period.
To learn more about
U.S. legal reserve Then First National’s daily average required legal reserve level = $0.0 × $7.8 million + 0.03 × ($48.3 million –
requirements under $7.8 million) + 0.10 × ($100 million – $48.3 million) = $6.385 million.
Regulation D, see
First National held a daily average of $5 million in vault cash over the required two-week computation period.
www.federalreserve.
Therefore, it must hold at the Federal Reserve Bank in its district the following amount, on average, over its
gov/regulations/default.
two-week reserve maintenance period:
htm. For information
about the reserve Daily average level Total Daily
requirements of the of required legal
⫽
required
⫺
average
⫽ $6.385 million ⫺ $5.00 million ⫽ $1.385 million
European Central Bank, reserves to hold on legal vault
see www.ecb.int. For deposit at the Fed reserves cash holdings
the rules applied by
Federal Reserve officials today differentiate between so-called bound and nonbound depository institutions.
other central banks
Bound institutions’ required reserves are larger than their vault cash holdings, meaning that they must hold
enter each central
additional reserves beyond the amount of their vault cash at the Federal Reserve Bank in their district.
bank’s name in your
Nonbound institutions hold more vault cash than their required reserves and therefore are not required to
search engine.
hold legal reserves at the Fed. As reserve requirements have been lowered in recent years, the number of
nonbound depositories has increased.
points (measured as an annual rate), which is applied to the amount of the deficiency.
Increased surveillance costs may also be assessed if repeated reserve deficits lead regulators
to monitor the bank’s operations more closely, possibly damaging its efficiency.
Clearing Balances
In addition to holding a legal reserve account at the central bank, many depository insti-
tutions also hold a clearing balance with the Fed to cover any checks or other debit items
drawn against them. In the United States any depository institution using the Federal
Reserve’s check-clearing facilities must maintain a minimum-size clearing balance—an
amount set by agreement between each institution and its district Federal Reserve bank,
based on its estimated check-clearing needs and recent overdrafts.
Clearing balance rules work much like legal reserve requirements, with depository insti-
tutions required to maintain a minimum daily average amount in their clearing account
over the same two-week maintenance period as applies to legal reserves. When they fall
more than 2 percent below the minimum balance required, they must provide additional
funds to bring the balance up to the promised level. If a clearing balance has an excess
amount in it, this can act as an extra cushion of reserves to help a depository institution
avoid a deficit in its legal reserve account.
A depository institution earns credit from holding a clearing balance that it can apply
to help cover the cost of using Fed services (such as the collection of checks or making
use of Fed Wire, the Federal Reserve’s electronic wire transfer service). The amount of
credit earned from holding a Fed clearing balance depends on the size of the average
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account balance and the level of the Federal funds interest rate over the relevant period.
For example, suppose a bank had a clearing balance averaging $1 million during a partic-
ular two-week maintenance period and the Federal funds interest rate over this same
period averaged 5.50 percent. Then it would earn a Federal Reserve credit of
Average clearing balance × Annualized Fed funds rate × 14 days/360 days
= $1,000,000 × .055 × .0389 = $2,138.89 (11–8)
Assuming a 360-day year for ease of computation, this bank could apply up to $2,138.89
to offset any fees charged the bank for its use of Federal Reserve services.
Factoid
The oldest kind of Controllable Factors Increasing Controllable Factors Decreasing
sweep account offered Legal Reserves Legal Reserves
by depository • Selling securities. • Purchasing securities.
institutions is • Receiving interest payments on securities. • Making interest payments to investors holding
business-oriented sweep the bank’s securities.
programs that convert • Borrowing reserves from the Federal • Repaying a loan from the Federal
business checking Reserve bank. Reserve bank.
accounts, usually • Purchasing Federal funds from other • Selling Federal funds to other institutions in
overnight, into interest- banks. need of reserves.
bearing savings deposits • Selling securities under a repurchase • Security purchases under a repurchase
or off-balance-sheet agreement (RP). agreement (RP).
interest-bearing • Selling new CDs, Eurocurrency deposits, or other • Receiving currency and coin shipments
investments. deposits to customers. from the Federal Reserve bank.
In recent years the volume of legal reserves held at the Federal Reserve by depository
institutions operating in the United States has declined sharply. Today, for example,
legal reserves held by depository institutions at all 12 Federal Reserve banks are less than
half their volume in the mid-1990s. The decline in legal reserves is largely due to the
development of sweep accounts—a customer service that results in bankers shifting
their customers’ deposited funds out of low-yielding accounts that carry reserve require-
ments (currently checkable or transaction accounts), usually overnight, into repurchase
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370 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
agreements, shares in money market funds, and savings accounts (not currently bearing
reserve requirements). Such sweeps yield an advantage to the offering depository insti-
tution because they lower its overall cost of funds, while still preserving depositor access
to his or her checking account and the ability to make payments or execute withdrawals.
Key URLs These sweep arrangements have ballooned in size to cover well over $500 billion in
For more information deposit balances, substantially lowering total required reserves of depository institutions.
on sweep accounts, see Sweep activities have been aided by access to online sites made available from the Federal
especially www.
research.stlouisfed.org/
Reserve banks that track on a real-time basis any large dollar payments flowing into or out
aggreg/swdata.html and of reserve accounts, allowing money managers to better plan what happens to their legal
www.treasurystrategies. reserve positions on a daily basis. Today the sweep accounts depository institutions offer
com. include retail sweeps, involving checking and savings accounts of individuals and families,
and business sweeps, where commercial checkable deposit balances are changed overnight
into commercial savings deposits or moved off depository institutions’ balance sheets into
interest-bearing investments and then quickly returned.
The key goal of money position management is to keep legal reserves at the required
level, with no excess reserves and no reserve deficit large enough to incur a penalty. If a
depository institution has an excess reserve position, it will sell Federal funds to other
depositories short of legal reserves, or if the excess appears to be longer lasting, purchase
securities or make new loans. If the depository institution has a legal reserve deficit, it will
usually purchase Federal funds or borrow from the Federal Reserve bank in its district. If
the deficit appears to be especially large or long lasting, the institution may sell some of its
marketable securities and cut back on its lending.
An Example
Factoid Table 11–7 illustrates how a bank, for example, can keep track of its reserve position on
Two of the most a daily basis. This example also illustrates the money desk manager’s principal problem—
important regulations trying to keep track of the many transactions each day that will affect this particular
focusing on the
management of reserves bank’s legal reserves. In this example, the money desk manager had estimated that his
and liquidity for bank needed to average $500 million per day in its reserve account at the district Reserve
depository institutions bank. However, at the end of the first day (Thursday) of the new reserve maintenance
are Regulations Q and period, it had a $550 million reserve position. The money manager tried to take advantage
D of the Federal of this excess reserve position the next day (Friday) by purchasing $100 million in Treasury
Reserve Board. Q
impacts the interest securities. The result was a reserve deficit of $130 million, much deeper than expected, due
rates depository in part to an $80 million adverse clearing balance (that is, this bank had more checks pre-
institutions are allowed sented for deduction from its customers’ deposits than it received from other depository
to pay on deposits, institutions for crediting to its own customers’ accounts).
while D sets out the To help offset this steep decline in its reserve account, the money manager borrowed
rules for calculating and
meeting legal reserve $50 million from the Federal Reserve bank’s discount window on Friday afternoon. This
requirements in the helped a little because Friday’s reserve position counts for Saturday and Sunday as well,
United States. when most depository institutions are closed, so the $130 million reserve deficit on Friday
resulted in a $390 million (3 × $130 million) cumulative reserve deficit for the whole
weekend. If the money desk manager had not borrowed the $50 million from the Fed, the
deficit would have been $180 million for Friday and thus $540 million (3 × $180 million)
for the entire weekend.
The bank depicted in Table 11–7 continued to operate below its required daily average
legal reserve of $500 million through the next Friday of the reserve maintenance period,
when a fateful decision was made. The money manager decided to borrow $100 million in
Federal funds, but at the same time to sell $50 million in Federal funds to other depository
institutions. Unfortunately, the manager did not realize until day’s end on Friday that the
bank had suffered a $70 million adverse clearing balance due to numerous checks written
by its depositors that came back for collection. On balance, the bank’s reserve deficit
Rose−Hudgins: Bank
TABLE 11–7 An Example: Daily Schedule for Evaluating a Bank’s Money Position (all figures in millions of dollars)
Daily Adjustments to the Bank’s Closing
Balance Held at the Federal Reserve Bank Daily Excess Cumulative
Competitors
Average or Excess
Federal Funds Fed’s Discount Treasury Check
IV. Managing the
Thursday $ 500 +50 −25 −25 +50 $550 +50 +50 $ 550
Friday 500 +50 −100 −80 370 −130 −80 920
Saturday 500 +50 −100 −80 370 −130 −210 1,290
Management: Strategies
11. Liquidity and Reserve
371
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372 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
increased another $10 million, for a closing balance on Friday of $480 million. Once
again, because Friday’s balance carried over for Saturday and Sunday, the money desk
manager faced a cumulative reserve deficit of $410 million on Monday morning, with only
that day plus Tuesday and Wednesday to offset the deficit before the reserve maintenance
period ended.
As we noted earlier, Federal Reserve regulations require a depository institution to be
within 4 percent of its required daily average reserve level or pay a penalty on the amount
of the deficit. Trying to avoid this penalty, the bank money manager swung into high gear,
borrowing $250 million in Federal funds on Monday and $100 million on Tuesday. Over
two days this injected $350 million in new reserves. With an additional borrowing of $70
million in the Federal funds market on Wednesday, the last day of the reserve maintenance
period (known as “bank settlement day”), the bank in our example ended the period with
a zero cumulative reserve deficit.
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Bank Size and Borrowing and Lending Reserves for the Money Position
Recent research on money position management suggests that smaller depository institu-
tions tend to have frequent reserve surpluses, particularly when loan demand is low in their
market areas, and, therefore, are interested in lending these surpluses out to larger institu-
tions. If smaller depositories do have reserve deficits, these normally occur late in the reserve
maintenance period. In contrast, the largest depository institutions tend to have reserve
needs day after day and find themselves on the borrowing side of the money market most of
the time.
Overdraft Penalties
Depository institutions operating inside the U.S. financial system run the risk of modest
penalties if they run an intraday overdraft and possibly a stiffer penalty if overnight over-
drafts occur in their reserves. Avoiding intraday and overnight overdrafts is not easy for
most institutions because they have only partial control over the amount and timing of
inflows and outflows of funds from their reserves. Because of possible overdraft penalties,
many financial institutions hold “precautionary balances” (extra supplies of reserves) to
help prevent overdrafting of their reserve account.
1. Immediacy of need. If a reserve deficit comes due within minutes or hours, the money
position manager will normally tap the Federal funds market for an overnight loan
or contact the central bank for a loan from its discount window. In contrast, a depos-
itory institution can meet its nonimmediate reserve needs by selling deposits or
assets, which may require more time to arrange than immediately available borrow-
ings normally do.
2. Duration of need. If the liquidity deficit is expected to last for only a few hours, the Fed-
eral funds market or the central bank’s discount window is normally the preferred
source of funds. Liquidity shortages lasting days, weeks, or months, on the other hand,
are often covered with sales of assets or longer-term borrowings.
3. Access to the market for liquid funds. Not all depository institutions have access to all
funds markets. For example, smaller depositories cannot, as a practical matter, draw
upon the Eurocurrency market or sell commercial paper. Liquidity managers must
restrict their range of choices to those their institution can access quickly.
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Concept Check
11–15. What is money position management? have a legal reserve deficiency? How would you
11–16. What is the principal goal of money position man- recommend that its management respond to the
agement? current situation?
11–17. Exactly how is a depository institution’s legal 11–20. What factors should a money position manager
reserve requirement determined? consider in meeting a deficit in a depository insti-
11–18. First National Bank finds that its net transaction tution’s legal reserve account?
deposits average $140 million over the latest 11–21. What are clearing balances? Of what benefit can
reserve computation period. Using the reserve clearing balances be to a depository that uses the
requirement ratios imposed by the Federal Federal Reserve System’s check-clearing network?
Reserve as given in the textbook, what is the 11–22. Suppose a bank maintains an average clearing
bank’s total required legal reserve? balance of $5 million during a period in which the
11–19. A U.S. savings bank has a daily average reserve Federal funds rate averages 6 percent. How much
balance at the Federal Reserve bank in its dis- would this bank have available in credits at the
trict of $25 million during the latest reserve Federal Reserve Bank in its district to help offset
maintenance period. Its vault cash holdings the charges assessed against the bank for using
averaged $1 million and the savings bank’s total Federal Reserve services?
transaction deposits (net of interbank deposits 11–23. What are sweep accounts? Why have they led to
and cash items in collection) averaged $200 mil- a significant decline in the total legal reserves
lion daily over the latest reserve maintenance held at the Federal Reserve banks by depository
period. Does this depository institution currently institutions operating in the United States?
4. Relative costs and risks of alternative sources of funds. The cost of each source of reserves
changes daily, and the availability of surplus liquidity is also highly uncertain. Other
things being equal, the liquidity manager will draw on the cheapest source of reliable
funds, maintaining constant contact with the money and capital markets to be aware of
how interest rates and credit conditions are changing.
5. The interest rate outlook. When planning to deal with a future liquidity deficit, the liquidity
manager wants to draw upon those funds sources whose interest rates are expected to be
the lowest. As we saw earlier in Chapter 8 new futures and options contracts, especially the
Fed funds futures and options contracts and the Eurodollar futures contracts traded on the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade, have greatly assisted liquidity
managers in forecasting the most likely scenario for future borrowing costs. These contracts
provide estimates of the probability that market interest rates will be higher or lower in the
days and weeks ahead.
6. Outlook for central bank monetary policy. Closely connected to the outlook for interest
rates is the outlook for changes in central bank monetary policy which shapes the direc-
tion and intensity of credit conditions in the money market. For example, a more
restrictive monetary policy implies higher borrowing costs and reduced credit avail-
ability for liquidity managers. The Federal funds and Eurodollar futures and options
contracts mentioned above and in Chapter 8 have proven to be especially useful to liq-
uidity managers in gauging what changes in central bank policies affecting interest rates
are most likely down the road.
7. Rules and regulations applicable to a liquidity source. Most sources of liquidity cannot be
used indiscriminately; the user must conform to the rules. For example, borrowing
reserves from a central bank frequently requires the borrowing institution to provide col-
lateral behind the loan. In the United States and Europe two key liquidity sources—the
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Federal funds and Eurocurrency markets—close down near the end of the trading day,
forcing borrowing institutions that are in danger of overdrafting their accounts to
quickly arrange for their funding needs before the door closes or look for cash elsewhere.
The liquidity manager must carefully weigh each of these factors in order to make a
rational choice among alternative sources of reserves.
Summary Managing the liquidity position for a financial institution can be one of the most challeng-
ing jobs in the financial sector. In this chapter we reviewed several fundamental principles
of liquidity management and looked at several of the liquidity manager’s best tools. Key
points in the chapter include:
• A liquid financial firm is one that can raise cash in the amount required at reasonable
cost precisely when the need for liquidity arises.
• Among depository institutions the two most common needs for cash arise when depos-
itors withdraw their funds and when requests for loans come in the door.
www.mhhe.com/rose7e
• Liquidity needs are generally met either by selling assets (i.e., converting stored liquidity
into cash) or by borrowing in the money market (i.e., using purchased liquidity) or by a
combination of these two approaches.
• Managers of financial firms have developed several different methods to estimate what
their institution’s true liquidity needs are likely to be. One of these estimation methods
is the sources and uses of funds method in which total sources and uses of funds are pro-
jected over a desired planning horizon and liquidity deficits and surpluses are calculated
from the difference between funds sources and funds uses.
• Another popular liquidity estimation technique is the structure of funds method. This
requires each financial firm to classify its funds uses and sources according to their prob-
ability of withdrawal or loss. Assigning probabilities of withdrawal or loss makes it pos-
sible to give a quantitative estimate of future liquidity needs.
• Still another liquidity estimation approach focuses on liquidity indicators, in which
selected financial ratios measuring a financial firm’s liquidity position on both sides of
its balance sheet are calculated with the liquidity manager looking for any evidence of
adverse trends in liquidity.
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376 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
• Financial institutions today can draw upon multiple sources of liquid assets and bor-
rowed liquidity. Key sources of liquidity on the asset side of the balance sheet include
correspondent balances held with depository institutions and sales of highly liquid
money market instruments. Important borrowed liquidity sources include borrowing
from the central bank’s discount window, purchasing Federal funds, employing repur-
chase agreements (RPs), and issuing CDs or Eurocurrency deposits.
• One of the most challenging areas of funds management among depository institutions
centers upon the money position manager who oversees the institution’s legal reserve
account. These legal reserves include vault cash held on a depository institution’s prem-
ises and a deposit kept with the central bank, which must be managed to achieve a tar-
get level of legal reserves over each reserve maintenance period. Failure to hold
adequate legal reserves can incur monetary penalties and greater surveillance by regu-
latory authorities.
• Liquidity and money position managers choose their sources of liquidity based on sev-
eral key factors, including (1) immediacy of need; (2) duration of need; (3) market
access; (4) relative costs and risks; (5) the outlook for market interest rates; (6) the out-
look for central bank monetary policy and (7) government regulations.
Problems 1. Clear Hills State Bank estimates that over the next 24 hours the following cash
inflows and outflows will occur (all figures in millions of dollars):
and Projects
Deposit withdrawals $ 68 Sales of bank assets 16
Deposit inflows 87 Stockholder dividend payments 178
Scheduled loan repayments 89 Revenues from sale of nondeposit services 95
Acceptable loan requests 32 Repayments of bank borrowings 67
Borrowings from the money market 61 Operating expenses 45
What is this bank’s projected net liquidity position in the next 24 hours? From what
sources can the bank cover its liquidity needs?
2. Hillpeak Savings is projecting a net liquidity surplus of $2 million next week partially as
a result of expected quality loan demand of $24 million, necessary repayments of previ-
ous borrowings of $15 million, disbursements to cover operating expenses of $18 million,
planned stockholder dividend payments of $5 million, expected deposit inflows of
$26 million, revenues from nondeposit service sales of $18 million, scheduled repay-
ments of previously made customer loans of $23 million, asset sales of $10 million,
and money market borrowings of $11 million. How much must Hillpeak’s expected
deposit withdrawals be for the coming week?
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Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
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3. First National Bank of Los Alamos has forecast its checkable deposits, time and sav-
ings deposits, and commercial and household loans over the next eight months. The
resulting estimates (in millions) are shown below. Use the sources and uses of funds
approach to indicate which months are likely to result in liquidity deficits and which
in liquidity surpluses if these forecasts turn out to be true. Explain carefully what you
would do to deal with each month’s projected liquidity position.
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inventories of goods and services for the fall season and winter. This thrift institution
has analyzed its deposit accounts thoroughly and classified them as explained below.
Management has elected to hold a 75 percent reserve in liquid assets or borrowing
capacity for each dollar of hot money deposits, a 20 percent reserve behind vulnerable
deposits, and a 5 percent reserve for its holdings of core funds. The estimated reserve
requirements on most deposits are 3 percent, except that savings deposits carry a zero
percent reserve requirement and all checkable deposits above $48.3 million carry a 10
percent reserve requirement. Jefferson currently has total loans outstanding of $2,389
million, which two weeks ago were as high as $2,567 million. Its loans’ mean annual
growth rate over the past three years has been about 8 percent. Carefully prepare low
and high estimates for Jefferson’s total liquidity requirement for September.
5. Using the following financial information for Watson National Bank, calculate as
many of the liquidity indicators discussed in this chapter for Watson as you can. Do you
detect any significant liquidity trends? Which trends should management investigate?
378 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
6. The Bank of Your Dreams has a simple balance sheet. The figures are in millions of
dollars as follows:
Although the balance sheet is simple, the bank’s manager encounters a liquidity chal-
lenge when depositors withdraw $500 million.
a. If the asset conversion method is used and securities are sold to cover the deposit
drain, what happens to the size of Bank of Your Dreams?
b. If liability management is used to cover the deposit drain, what happens to the size
of Bank of Your Dreams?
7. The liquidity manager for the Bank of Your Dreams needs cash to meet some unantic-
ipated loan demand. The loan officer has $600 million in loans that he/she wants to
make. Use the simplified balance sheet provided in the previous problem to answer
the following questions:
a. If asset conversion is used and securities are sold to provide money for the loans,
what happens to the size of Bank of Your Dreams?
b. If liability management is used to provide funds for the loans, what happens to the
size of the Bank of Your Dreams?
8. Suppose Abigail Savings Bank’s liquidity manager estimates that the bank will expe-
rience a $430 million liquidity deficit next month with a probability of 10 percent, a
$300 million liquidity deficit with a probability of 40 percent, a $230 million liquidity
surplus with a probability of 30 percent, and a $425 million liquidity surplus bearing a
probability of 20 percent. What is this savings bank’s expected liquidity requirement?
What should management do?
9. First Savings of Pierce, Iowa, reported transaction deposits of $75 million (the daily
average for the latest two-week reserve computation period). Its nonpersonal time
deposits over the most recent reserve computation period averaged $37 million daily,
while vault cash averaged $0.978 million over the vault-cash computation period.
Assuming that reserve requirements on transaction deposits are 3 percent for deposits
over $7.8 million and up to $48.3 million and 10 percent for all transaction deposits
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
over $48.3 million while time deposits carry a 3 percent required reserve, calculate this
savings institution’s required daily average reserve balance at the Federal Reserve Bank
in the district.
10. Elton Harbor Bank has a cumulative legal reserve deficit of $44 million at the Federal
Reserve bank in the district as of the close of business this Tuesday. The bank must
cover this deficit by the close of business tomorrow (Wednesday).
Charles Tilby, the bank’s money desk supervisor, examines the current distribution of
money market and long-term interest rates and discovers the following:
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One week ago, the bank borrowed $20 million from the Federal Reserve’s discount
window, which it paid back yesterday. The bank had a $5 million reserve deficit dur-
ing the previous reserve maintenance period. From the bank’s standpoint, which
sources of reserves appear to be the most promising? Which source would you recom-
mend to cover the bank’s reserve deficit? Why?
11. Poquoson Building and Loan Association estimates the following information regard-
ing this institution’s reserve position at the Federal Reserve for the reserve mainte-
nance period that begins today (Thursday):
Poquoson also had a closing reserve deficit in the preceding reserve maintenance
period of $5 million. What problems are likely to emerge as this savings association
tries to manage its reserve position over the next two weeks? Relying on the Federal
funds market and loans from the Federal Reserve’s discount window as tools to man-
age its reserve position, carefully construct a pro forma daily worksheet for this asso-
ciation’s money position over the next two weeks. Insert your planned adjustments
in discount window borrowing and Federal funds purchases and sales over the period
to show how you plan to manage Poquoson’s reserve position and hit your desired
reserve target.
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Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
380 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
12. R, W, & B Savings Bank and Trust Co. has calculated its daily average deposits and
vault cash holdings for the most recent two-week computation period as follows:
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Suppose the reserve requirements posted by the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System are as follows:
What is this savings bank’s total required level of legal reserves? How much must the
bank hold on a daily average basis with the Federal Reserve bank in its district?
13. Frost Street National Bank currently holds $750 million in transaction deposits subject
to reserve requirements but has managed to enter into sweep account arrangements with
its transaction deposit customers affecting $150 million of their deposits. Given the cur-
rent legal reserve requirements applying to transaction deposits (as mentioned in this
chapter), by how much would Frost Street’s total legal reserves decrease as a result of
these new sweep account arrangements, which stipulate that transaction deposit bal-
ances covered by the sweep agreements will be moved overnight into savings deposits?
14. Jasper Savings Association maintains a clearing account at the Federal Reserve Bank
and agrees to keep a minimum balance of $22 million in its clearing account. Over the
two-week reserve maintenance period ending today Jasper managed to keep an average
clearing account balance of $24 million. If the Federal funds interest rate has averaged
3.75 percent over this particular maintenance period, what maximum amount would
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
YOUR BANK’S LIQUIDITY REQUIREMENT: AN Application of the Liquidity Indicator Approach: Trend
EXAMINATION OF ITS LIQUIDITY INDICATORS and Comparative Analysis
Chapter 11 describes liquidity and reserve management. Within A. Data Collection: To calculate these liquidity ratios, we will
the chapter we explore how liquidity managers evaluate their use some data collected in prior assignments and revisit the
institution’s liquidity needs. Four methodologies are described: Statistics for Depository Institutions Web site (www3.fdic.
(1) the sources and uses of funds approach, (2) the structure of gov/sdi/) to gather more information for your BHC and its peer
funds approach, (3) the liquidity indicator approach, and (4) sig- group. Use SDI to create a four-column report of your bank’s
nals from the marketplace. In this assignment we will calculate information and the peer group information across years. In
and interpret several of the ratios associated with the liquidity this part of the assignment, for Report Selection you will
indicators approach. By comparing these ratios across time access a number of different reports. We suggest that you
and with a group of contemporary banks, we will examine the continue to collect percentage information to calculate your
liquidity needs of your BHC. In doing so, you will familiarize liquidity indicators. The additional information you need to
yourself with some new terms and tools associated with real collect before calculating the indicators is denoted by **. All
data. This assignment involves some data exploration that is data is available in SDI by the name given next to the **. As
best described as a financial analyst’s “treasure hunt.” you collect the information, enter the percentages for items
marked ** in Columns B–E as an addition to the spreadsheet
used for comparisons with Peer Group.
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B. Having collected the additional data needed, use the newly D. Compare and contrast the set of liquidity ratios for the peer
collected and previously collected data to calculate the group in Columns C and E to your BHC’s ratios in Columns B
liquidity indicators. For instance, the percentage data you and D. Write one or two paragraphs describing your BHC’s
have can be used to calculate the pledged securities ratio. use of asset and liability management compared to that of
The formula to enter for Cell B92 is B93/B6. the Peer Group.
C. Compare the set of liquidity ratios for your BHC across
years. Write one or two paragraphs describing changes
you observe between the two years.
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
382 Part Four Managing the Investment Portfolios and Liquidity Positions of Banks and Their Principal Competitors
Jasper have available in the form of Federal Reserve credit to help offset any fees the
Federal Reserve bank might charge this association for using Federal Reserve services?
Internet Exercises
1. Evaluate the cash assets, including legal reserves, held by the Bank of America and Citi-
group. How has their liquidity position changed recently? One Web site that provides
this information for all the depository institutions in a bank holding company (BHC)
is www3.fdic.gov/sdi/. You are particularly interested in the items identified as “Cash
and Due from Depository Institutions.”
2. With reference to the BHCs mentioned in exercise 1, what was their ratio of cash and
due from depository institutions to total assets at last year’s year-end? Do you notice any
significant trends in their liquidity position that you think have also affected the bank-
ing industry as a whole? Examine the ratios for all FDIC-insured banks. This can also
be accomplished at www3.fdic.gov/sdi/.
3. In describing reserve management, we referenced some numbers that change every year
based on U.S. bank deposit growth. The reservable liabilities exemption determines
which banks are exempt from legal reserve requirements, and the low reserve tranche
is used in calculating reserve requirements. Go to www.federalreserve.gov/regula-
tions/default.htm and explore information concerning Regulation D. Find and report
the low reserve tranche adjustment and the reservable liabilities exemption adjustment
that are being used this year.
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Selected The following studies discuss the instruments often used to manage the liquidity positions of finan-
References cial institutions and their customers:
1. Bartolini, Leonardo, Svenja Gudell, Spence Hilton, and Krista Schwarz. “Intraday
Trading in the Overnight Federal Funds Market.” Current Issues in Economics and
Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 11, no. 11 (November 2005), pp. 1–7.
2. Champ, Bruce. “Open and Operating: Providing Liquidity to Avoid a Crisis.” Economic
Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, February 15, 2003.
3. Fleming, Michael J., and Kenneth D. Garbade. “Repurchase Agreements with Negative
Interest Rates.” Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New
York 10, no. 5 (April 2004), pp. 1–7.
Rose−Hudgins: Bank IV. Managing the 11. Liquidity and Reserve © The McGraw−Hill
Management and Financial Investment Portfolios and Management: Strategies Companies, 2008
Services, Seventh Edition Liquidity Positions of and Policies
Banks and Their Principal
Competitors
4. Hilton, Spence. “Trends in Federal Funds Rate Volatility.” Current Issues in Economics
and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 11, no. 7 (July 2005), pp. 1–7.
For a review of the rules for meeting Federal Reserve deposit reserve requirements, see the following:
5. Cyree, Ken B., Mark D. Griffiths, and Drew B. Winters. “On the Pervasive Effects of
Federal Reserve Settlement Regulations.” Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,
March/April 2003, pp. 27–46.
6. Hein, Scott E., and Jonathan D. Stewart. “Reserve Requirements: A Modern Per-
spective.” Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Fourth Quarter 2002,
pp. 41–52.
For an examination of market discipline as a force in the liquidity management of financial firms,
see especially:
7. Krainer, John, and Jose A. Lopez. “How Might Financial Information Be Used for Super-
visory Purposes?” FRBSF Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2003,
pp. 29–45.
8. Stackhouse, Julie L., and Mark D. Vaughan. “Navigating the Brave New World of
Bank Liquidity.” The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 2003,
pp. 12–13.
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