Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

www.elsevier.com/locate/techsoc

Globalization and technology: how will they

change society?
K. Chareonwongsak a,∗
a
Institute of Future Studies for Development, Box 58 Santisuk Post Office, Bangkok 10113, Thailand

Abstract

Globalization, digitization, and biotechnologization are integrally connected in this new mil-
lennium. Globalization and technology share a causal relationship, each gaining from and
building on the other. Digitization, the “bones and sinews” of globalization, has taken our
lives out of the temporal and into the imaginary and unseen. Reality is no longer defined in
terms of things we can see, feel, and measure; now reality is defined by ideas and by the
ability of people to generate and communicate ideas. Added to these components is biotechnol-
ogization, an outcome of technology, whose global impact is measured by its usefulness —
and threat. All three factors form a trinity of promising yet potentially malevolent possibilities.
 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Globalization is here to stay. We are not going to reverse the trend (Roy MacLaren,
Canadian Ambassador, in London, Nov. 5, 1998).

Globalization is much more than the worldwide production and consumption of

products [1]. It is not just an economic or cultural trend but a movement of ideas,
lifestyles, and developments that could affect our families, our employment, and the
future of the world. Some view globalization negatively, i.e., as the force that col-
lapsed one after another of Asia’s economies in quick succession, or as the force

∗
Tel.: +66-23-821-5604; fax: +66-23-821-5665.
E-mail address: mailbox@ifd.or.th (K. Chareonwongsak).

0160-791X/02/$ - see front matter  2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 1 6 0 - 7 9 1 X ( 0 2 ) 0 0 0 0 4 - 0
192 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

that brings uninvited cultural influences into a country newly exposed to foreign
media and the Internet, or as the force that many predict will bring about human
annihilation through accelerated inter-nation conflict in the future. Others tout the
benefits of globalization: its power to enable rescuers to reach flood and earthquake
victims hours after a tragedy occurs, its capability for empowering handicapped citi-
zens, and its potential to create educational opportunities even for those in the
remotest areas. Thus, globalization is neither a Pandora’s box nor an Aladdin’s lamp
but a series of causes and consequences mediated by human choices.

2. Global trends in technology

A number of global trends can be seen as technology continues to expand. Among

these are: greater diffusion, faster development, greater emphasis on commercial
value, greater diversification, and increasing standardization.

2.1. Greater diffusion

2.1.1. At the national and international levels

Global trade connections will act as a wedge, enabling economic activity in new
areas. Access to new areas will be opened even further through transportation and
communication connections that link every area to the rest of the world. Technology
will be diffused worldwide via rapidly expanding world market connections. Sup-
porting this global dispersion of technology will be a massive network of telecom-
munications equipment and services. Sales via the electronic network have jumped
from $788 billion in 1995 to the trillion-dollar mark in 1998 [2]. Experts predict
sales in communications technology to grow 7% per year, double the rate of world
economic growth. Backing the momentum of free trade and telecommunication will
be global agreements such as the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) International
Telecommunications Agreement (ITA) and Trade Related Aspect on Intellectual Pro-
perty (TRIPS). Such agreements will facilitate the merging of all markets into one
massive global market. This, in turn, will spur increased use of telecommunications
products and services.
Other types of networks will web the world’s economic systems together. For
example, unrestricted finance and investment activities, including the free exchange
of production factors and labor resources, will help to blur traditional geopolitical
lines of demarcation. Technology diffusion will cause manufacturing to take on new
dimensions, allowing easier expansion into overseas markets and smoother import
of production technology. Machinery, parts, and production know-how will be car-
ried by highly trained personnel to every corner of the world. Already economic
alliances are tearing down political boundaries. Geopolitical divisions are increas-
ingly thwarted by free trade zones, economic agreements, and economic groupings
such as investment agreements by the WTO and Multilateral Agreement on Invest-
ment (MAI) members of OECD. The conditions of these agreements stipulate that
foreign investors be allowed equal access to local markets. This condition will have
 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206 193

heavy repercussions on the global economy, accelerating the growth of foreign

investment and, of course, furthering the diffusion of technology.
Transportation and telecommunication networks have grown in response to the
development of transportation facilities, transportation technology, and international
communication technology causing the rapid transfer of expertise, equipment, and
personnel. However, the influence of globalization will extend much further than
economic and political considerations alone.

2.1.2. At the social level

Globalization will enable digital technology and biotechnology to shape society
for several reasons. First, an “open society” will become dominant in many nations.
Data and images transmitted around the world will bring momentous changes in
social and cultural structures. Local traditions are being subsumed by a dominant
global culture, a “global lifestyle,” that is found in the most powerful economic
countries. The foundation of this lifestyle — its dietary patterns, employment prefer-
ences, education system, healthcare structure, social behavior, national defense con-
figurations, political structures, governance practices, etc. — will be technological
innovation.
Second, capitalism will drive technology forward. As a fundamental component
of capitalism, competition among producers benefits consumers who seek products
and services that have the highest quality at the lowest price. As people enjoy the
benefits of a prosperous economy, they become exposed to information about econ-
omic opportunities in other places and they demand access to a higher standard of
living, including machines of convenience, quality food, and better healthcare ser-
vices. Responding to these needs results in digitization and biotechnologization.
Third, stronger global trade regulations will erode the protective abilities of
national trade tariffs, thereby resulting in more intense competition, especially from
mega-corporations with better technology resources. Medium and small-size busi-
nesses will be forced to adjust in order to survive. Businesses will upgrade their
production efficiency by either developing their own technology or importing it.
Thus, in the next decade, both digitization and biotechnologization will be important
factors governing the global economy. And both factors have great potential for
increasing effectiveness and productivity.

2.1.3. At the individual level

Globalization will also cause great diffusion of technology at the personal level,
resulting in greater individualism and self-centeredness. Business has already
embraced this trend by “making the customer king.” Digital technology enables busi-
nesses to respond immediately to specific consumer needs. Even the media is follow-
ing this trend. New technologies are being tested that will enable individual viewers
to escape conventional television scheduling, and instead be able to order at will a
movie, a game show, the news, or a documentary. Digital sensors in electronic pro-
ducts, such as software programs and microwave ovens, will track customer behavior
patterns and use the information to cater to customers’ specialized needs. Other sen-
194 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

sors will relate operating information from household or office equipment to the
manufacturers.
Competition will bring about major advances in corporate efficiency that will result
in lower production and service costs. Previously, digital technology and biotechnol-
ogy were considered high- level technology, meaning that they were accompanied
by high price tags. They were restricted to scientific or technological research settings
in development labs, government organizations, or large private organizations. How-
ever, the price of new technologies will fall as further developments make them
available to general consumers. The number of commercial applications for high-
tech personal products and services will grow.
During the past two decades, the cost of international telecommunications has
dropped significantly. For example, equipment and installation costs per voice path
on the trans-Pacific route fell from $73,000 in 1975 to only $2,000 in 1996. By
1999, costs fell to less than $200 and are expected to fall to $5 in the early years
of this new millennium [2].

2.2. Faster development

Technology will continue to grow at an accelerated rate. Knowledge is expected

to change as much in the next hundred years as it did in the previous 3,500 [3].
There have been rapid changes in IT innovation, one of the most notable being the
silicon chip which has significantly accelerated innovation and processing speeds.
Consider the so-called Moore’s Law, which asserts that “computer power doubles
every 18 to 24 months”1.
Innovations in production will also occur more rapidly than in previous ages. The
world has become a global village connected by high-tech communication and rapid
transit systems, and this has caused tremendous diffusion of knowledge. The
exchange of information, concepts, expertise, and new knowledge will have fewer
boundaries, thus leading to an even quicker accumulation and exchange of knowl-
edge. Increased information should also facilitate growth in the information-to-
knowledge-to-wisdom process.
The mass media is becoming ever more important in the world. For example,
traffic on the Internet has been found to double every six to nine months. In 1999,
the number of linked Internet host computers comprising the Web was 43.23 million
[4], up from less than one million in 1993. Installation of international fixed lines
expanded 15% per year between 1990 and 1996, resulting in doubled usage during
these years. In 1999, 38% of all businesses in the US use high technology, including
the Internet and mobile phones. There was a 533% expansion in the public use of
the Internet for research purposes in the year 1999 [5]. Intense competition will put
even greater demands on telecommunication products and computers.

1
This so-called “law” was first stated in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel Corp. It is not
a scientific law but a rule-of-thumb which has uncannily predicted the evolution of computer power for
several decades.
 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206 195

2.3. Greater emphasis on commercial value

Technological development will occur more quickly in the private sector than in
the public. Increasing numbers of competitors will push prices down and narrow
profit margins. R&D will shift from academia and the government sector to the
private sector. Because of greater financial resources, private enterprise will develop
greater long-term research continuity. A world investment report estimates that phar-
maceutical development will eventually be centered in a few business groups, far
less than the seven that presently control a quarter of the global market. Similar
mergers will occur in the digital technology industry where five or less mammoth
organizations will control the global marketplace.

2.4. Greater diversification

As a result of globalization and increased competition, technology will become

centered in two groups: (1) a few large businesses that control major market share,
and (2) many small businesses that will compete by identifying and quickly adapting
themselves to niche markets and developing specialized technologies.

2.5. Greater integration

Globalization will cause states, institutions, and business organizations to merge

into one society. Likewise, technology networks will become increasingly clustered
into a few major groupings and supra-state economic organizations.
Cooperative efforts and connections among similar types of businesses will
increase. For example, educational institutions will merge to provide comprehensive
educational services. Stimulated by heavy competition, businesses will gain compara-
tive advantage by forming cooperative networks and business alliances to provide
complete “one-stop” service. In addition, greater use will be made of interdisciplinary
technologies, such as “biocomputers” where living nerve cells are integrated into
computer circuitry [6].

2.6. Increasing standardization

The number of global-level regulating organizations to control natural resources,

the environment, health care, ethics, and so on will rise. More stringent international
trade standards will be set by the most economically powerful nations. Products
entering the international market will have to meet these global standards, which
will also be imposed on development and production technologies. Green technology,
environmental safety, and environmental law will acquire greater emphasis in the
future.
196 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

3. The impact of technology in our lives

Technology is expanding faster than any known biological entity. Lifestyle and
human social behavior are responding much as they did to all other waves in human
history — with great difficulty and, at times, in unexpected ways. Significant changes
are currently shaping human societies.

3.1. A common worldview

The expansion of technology has already and will continue to bring about signifi-
cant and profound changes in the human perspective. The number of assumptions
that can be designated as worldviews (defined as the dominant perspectives that
people as a collective hold) constantly increases, and they affect our lives in profound
ways. Advances in technology carve deep and long-lasting channels in the social
terrain in which we live.
Actually, technology itself cannot directly shape people’s worldviews 2. Instead,
worldviews are derived from the concepts and philosophies that configure the mind
of the inventor of a particular technology. Thus, new concepts and views occur
independently in society, but technology helps to pull individual or small group
perspectives toward a global orientation. Technology magnifies the impact of a parti-
cular worldview by multiplying and dispersing it to a wide audience. The increasing
occurrence of an idea may not cause it to be more popularly accepted, but ease of
access via the Internet means ideas that were previously available only to a limited
audience now have the potential to become available to anyone with Internet access.
Technology has thus become a defining agent of change. Digital technology and
biotechnology will change people’s worldviews in several ways.

3.1.1. A more commonly accepted worldview

The perspectives of our world’s many societies will eventually be unified into
one global worldview. Information networks and telecommunication technology will
ensure that everyone receives the same images and influences, thus shaping world-
views by global currents of post-modernism, materialism, consumerism, individual-
ism, and capitalism, among others. Modern technology is helping to transmit these
views to every culture, resulting in a set of commonly accepted thoughts, values,
deeds, and emotions espoused by an increasing number of people.
The instruments used to create this unified worldview — computers and telecom-
munication technology — increasingly determine our future. Today technology and
technology leaders, especially those from developed countries, determine changes in
worldviews and thus they wield the power to drive the societies and lifestyles of
those receiving the technology, i.e., the people in developing and undeveloped coun-

2
“Worldview” is the pattern or frame of thinking held by every person which determines the values,
behavior and feelings of that person. Each worldview is like a pair of glasses with colored lenses. Each
person has a different set of glasses that makes them see the world in a different color.
 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206 197

tries [7]. The result is that new worldviews become the building blocks of future
societies.

3.1.2. A worldview created by individuals

Worldview affects more than groups and societies; it shapes the outlooks of indi-
vidual members of these groups. After all, not all individuals share the same set
of assumptions as the other members of their group, and technology can color the
perspectives of individuals in a variety of ways.
In the future, studies will be more individualized, especially for students in
developing nations where today curricula are highly prescriptive, public libraries are
largely inaccessible, and learning opportunities considered “normal” for children in
the developed world are unavailable to a high percentage of students. Students from
developing nations will have greater choice over what they learn. Information tech-
nology as a means of free exploration will have a greater impact on the education
of young children than traditional education modes, where knowledge is dispersed
en masse by a teacher to a group of students.
Digital technology will allow greater individual selection of media forms. For
example, Internet browsers can select the site and the depth to which they penetrate
that site. Communication technology will facilitate mass communication by and
among individuals. And whereas mass media communication was previously limited
to a uni-directional mode, it has now become bi-directional. Each visitor receives a
different blend of information, thus creating personal worldviews that are differen-
tiated for each visitor. TV science show host, James Burke, stated,

Institutions are lamentably unready for the inevitable emergence of a new, tech-
nology-generated phenomenon — the empowered, informed individual

[8]. Modern technology has enabled people to become individuals.

Information technology has become the instrument that facilitates not only the
formation of the individual but also the formation of group identity. Even views held
by the most offbeat and socially unacceptable groups take on some air of legitimacy
on the Internet. This tool empowers individuals to communicate their ideas and gain
the cooperation of other individuals with similar interests. In the future, subculture
groups may gain credibility and thus increased bargaining power within society. Via
the Internet, they are able to propagate their views to the world. Thus, groups with
advanced technology can use it to magnify, sometimes exponentially, the member-
ship base and influence of their group. Included in this trend is a growing wave of
popular democracy whereby subculture groups are allowed free expression of their
opinions through various electronic channels.

3.1.3. A worldview that allows a multi-dimensional perspective of truth

The development of technology has caused an interesting shift in the global per-
spective of truth: from an absolute entity to one that can change with time, circum-
stance, or new scientific discovery. Accompanying this degeneration of truth into
relative terms came an ethical framework that was more tenuous in nature; that is,
198 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

the dividing line between right and wrong became increasingly blurred. As with
technological developments of the past, such as Nobel’s dynamite, questions of the
short- and long-term implications of such innovations are rarely asked beforehand.
Legal and moral dilemmas surrounding groundbreaking technology are at times left
hanging, as people are hesitant to judge the outcomes of innovation. At other times,
technology has advanced so rapidly that people have little time to understand and
develop definitive ethical stances. In the future, confusion and ambiguity may charac-
terize many areas of society, from public policy to personal choice. When ethically
ambiguous issues arise, many people could conclude that absolute truth does not
exist and make decisions according to their own dictates.
Truth may be obscured by a profusion of information. The growth of information
networks will allow people to disperse personal ideas on millions of Websites. The
resulting flood of information, sometimes of questionable quality or validity, could
produce an information “overload.” Increased time pressures could cause people to
cluster issues together and make umbrella decisions. As a result, we might see
decreased acknowledgement of truth as absolute.

3.1.4. A worldview that allows greater selection

Biotechnology, especially genetic engineering, may enable people to clone living
cells and form genetically identical organisms. Genetic engineering originally was
used to design plants, animals, and microorganisms that were stronger and more
commercially viable. Today new, genetically enhanced crops and herds are increas-
ing the world’s food production capabilities.
Technology is now used to override the so-called “laws of nature,” including some
of nature’s selective processes. Instead of awarding survival to the strongest and
most able, technology places control over survival and success in human hands. For
example, technology has placed the power to create life (eugenics) or to terminate
it (abortion and euthanasia) in the hands of doctors and medical boards. Now tech-
nology is taking a larger role in determining “the fittest” — those with access to the
best technology, and the “unfit” — those denied the benefits of technology.

3.1.5. A worldview that controls rights over life

Technology has heightened our awareness of personal rights. This trend is
especially common in the case of biotechnological innovation. Breakthroughs in
scientific research have supported the mindset that technology, and thus we as the
originator of these genetic technologies, can control the formation of life in general
and human life in particular. Various issues are being raised around, for example,
the right to use personal genetic material in research and production, the right to
use personal genetic material to clone, the right to commit suicide, the right to use
addictive substances, and so on.

3.2. New social patterns

Digital and communication technologies may mold social paradigms and influence
social stratification in the coming twenty years.
 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206 199

3.2.1. Virtual relationships

Digital technology allows people to give efficiency and convenience a higher pri-
ority than before. Face-to-face meetings may be replaced with digital interfaces [9]3.
For example, as education adopts more technology, the social implications of having
an education may be redefined. Recently, a network of universities joined together
to form a “campus-less” National Technological University (USA). It will be an
important test case to see how virtual universities and remote education might fare
in the future.
Shopping is also affected by the technology revolution. Even though e-commerce
has functioned seriously only since 1995, already a rapid growth curve and increased
e-commerce market share can be seen in total world retail sales figures (see Table
1). Several experiments are being conducted to determine if individuals can survive
in isolation, communicating with the outer world only via the Internet [10]4.
Other daily activities increasingly are being governed by high technology. People
can access, via the Internet, the resources of many of the world’s major libraries, as
well as banks, movies, bookstores, information polls, election results, central bank
figures, and even military archives. Even some traditionally private sites, such as
the birthing rooms of hospitals, have been opened to some public view as a result
of Internet technology. In the future, it is likely that social interactions will be determ-

Table 1
Comparative estimates of e-commerce sales

E-commerce Percentage of Percentage of Percentage of Percentage of

estimates (US$ US catalogue US credit card direct marketing OECD-7 total
billion) sales purchases retail sales

Past(1996/97) 26 33 3 2 0.5
Near Term 330 309 24 18 5.0
(2001/02)
Future 1000 780 54 42 15.0
(2003/05)

Notes: OECD estimates; US catalogue sales ($78.6 billion) and direct marketing sales ($1,226.0 billion)
data and growth rates (6.3 and 8.7 respectively) are from Direct Marketing Association (1998), “Economic
Impact: US Direct Marketing”, April; credit card activity is based on VISA and MasterCard US charges
in 1997 ($870 billion) and the 1996 to 1997 growth rate of 10%; OECD-7 retail sales ($5,328 billion)
are for Canada (1997), France (1996), Finland (1997), Germany (1995), Japan (1994), United Kingdom
(1994) and the United States (1997).Source: ‘The Economic and Social Impact of Electronic Commerce:
Preliminary Findings and Research Agenda’ http://www.oecd.org/subject/e-commerce/ebooks/027-
054.pdf.

3
This article reported that 21% of Indonesians, 20% of Indians, 18% of Singaporeans, and 17% of
Taiwanese say they spend less time with family and friends today.
4
This article describes a week-long existence through a Net umbilical chord. Dot.com Guy, Mitch
Maddox, will live for a year on the Web.
200 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

ined by technological patterns and precedents that have been established by the digi-
tal nature of modern telecommunications.
Although high technology is efficient and caters to the human predilection for
convenience and ease, it cannot replace the desire for face-to-face contact. While
advances in technology will undoubtedly create more opportunities for communi-
cation on a horizontal level, such advances might also limit opportunities for
developing in-depth relationships. For example, many people who become friends
over the Internet often decide to meet in person. And despite the growing number
of “Net romances”, where people decide to marry based on Internet interactions
without ever having met face-to-face, no one has ever agreed to a “virtual marriage,”
although some may try it in the future.
Even so, modern societies have produced an increasing number of people who
are more antisocial [11]. Individualism and inherent human laziness may allow tech-
nology to limit the quality of human relationships. The feeling of power attained by
acquiring additional knowledge may reduce the yearnings for interdependence with
other people. Technology may also be used reduce certain competitive pressures
found in some social situations. Trends point to greater self-reliance and a resultant
distance in human relationships.

3.2.2. Deviation from social norms

Changes in the dynamics of relationships can be traced to the extension of tech-
nology and information systems to the individual level. Information is no longer
limited to leaders but is, to a large extent, now available to the general populace.
Technology opens societies and exposes people to new information, which inevitably
changes their worldview, thinking, and values. Traditional social patterns of mar-
riage, family, community, and society are being replaced. The definition of the family
will change as genetic engineering makes conception possible for infertile couples,
enhances opportunities for single parent families, and creates other relationship con-
texts that might earlier have been considered impossible.

3.3. Changes in personal privacy

The growth of democracy and the human rights movement has resulted in greater
demand for personal rights and freedoms. Despite this, both the public and private
sectors continue to violate personal rights and freedoms through various methods
used to obtain personal data. National intelligence departments and other organiza-
tions use high-tech equipment to elicit personal information from both domestic and
international sources, ostensibly for purposes of national security and/or other
reasons. The private sector is no better. Complicated competitor and customer infor-
mation is seen as vital to the development of new production processes and expansion
of market share. Personal information is derived in different ways, such as electronic
identification (iris scanning, DNA sampling, electronic fingerprinting, and electronic
vending cards), linkage of personal computer and Internet system, bar-code systems,
remote video recorders, satellite photographs, phone taps, and other machines are
being used for personal surveillance.
 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206 201

Many Internet Websites track information on the personal browsing habits of Inter-
net users. More than half of businesses using Websites do this without posting a
privacy disclosure statement (Table 2). It is expected that gathering personal infor-
mation in this way will likely increase in the future. According to forecasts, by 2013,
75% of the world’s population could be electronically identified. In the society of
the future, all personal transactions done on the Internet may be recorded and the
information stored. Privacy in that sense will no longer exist.

4. Social problems and conflicts provoked by advanced technologies

In his theory of cultural lag, Ogburn [13] suggested that social institutions need
time to adapt to major technological changes. Today technology is advancing faster
than human history has ever experienced. The possibility that societies will not be
able to adjust to these changing technologies is highly probable. In the future we
could see the rise of two types of problems.

4.1. Ethical dilemmas

Ethical controversies may continue to surround developments in biotechnology

and genetic engineering. Conception and contra-conception technologies, the creation
of new life forms, and other related issues, will be more present in the public con-
science. The uncertainties of reproductive medicine could continue to raise ethical
questions. The key task is to supplement medical or economic decisions on geneti-

Table 2
The Online Privacy Alliance: a comparison of GIPPS and OPA surveys

GIPPS Report∗ OPA Study∗∗

Number of sites in sample 361 100

Number of sites collecting personal information 337 99
Percentage of sites in sample collecting private information 93% 99%
Number of sites disclosing any private information 238 93
Percentage of sites in sample disclosing any private 66% 93%
information
Number of sites posting a privacy policy notice 157 81
Percentage of sites in sample posting a privacy policy notice 44% 81%
Number of sites including a disclosure for all four substantive 36 22
fair information practice principles
Percentage of sites in sample including a disclosure for all 10% 22%
four substantive fair information practice principles

∗
Georgetown Internet Privacy Policy Survey (GIPPS) studied 361 dot.com Website visits by at-home
consumers drawn from a sampling of the top 7,500 URLs, ranked by audience, during January 1999.
∗∗
Online Privacy Alliance (OPA) study was based on a census of the top 100 dot.com Website visits
by at-home consumers drawn from a sampling of the top 7,500 URLs, ranked by audience, during January
1999 [12].
202 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

cally engineered intervention with ethical criteria. Despite the fact that genetic engin-
eering has produced insulin and high-yield agriculture crops, the world cannot ignore
the implications of genetic engineering — a problem of control in view of the speed
of development in genetic research. “People made-to-measure” is one scenario that
could heighten the potential for conflict in the future.

4.1.1. Devaluation of people

Advances in digital technology and biotechnology may lead to placing less value
on certain people within future social frameworks. For example, those whose jobs
are replaced by intelligent robots might view themselves as being less valuable than
a machine.
Changing definitions and perimeters on human value such as these could be
especially evident in technology that deals with the starting point, the creation of
life. The possibility of cloning humans seems to be drawing ever nearer. But cloned
people, lacking unique personal traits, could feel they are no different than the pro-
ducts in a supermarket or factory. Biotechnology may cause us to value people with
“good genes” over those with “bad genes,” akin to the belief existent in many Asian
cultures that criminals have “bad blood.” Such devaluation of people could place
new pressures on society, causing people to treat each other with little or no consider-
ation or compassion. People who have lower abilities to create economic value within
society could be deemed less useful. Society may begin to accept conduct and
behaviors that dispose of economically unprofitable people. For example, much
literature justifies abortions by claiming that the parents are not economically capable
of caring for children; euthanasia is validated because of the costs it saves the medical
care system. People could look for excuses to abandon elderly or handicapped family
members. Life may be judged only by its economic validity. As a consequence,
society would lack clear norms, resulting in heightened potential for confusion
and conflict.

4.1.2. Lost personal identity

Using digitized personal identification systems could place a higher priority on
numeric identification instead of name identification. And what happens to personal
identity when the information stored in central databases is lost, stolen, destroyed,
or altered?
Cutting-edge medical technology, such as xenotransplantation (also called nuclear
transplants [14]), in which animal organs or genes are implanted into humans, could
blur the lines between species: “Is it a human, animal, or chimera?”. This practice
will grow, especially in developed countries with stronger economies where people
can afford heart, lung, and kidney transplants. Because the demand for human parts
and organs will rise (at present, the supply of transplant organs meets only 40% of
need), xenotransplants could become increasingly common (Table 3), especially for
gravely ill patients [15].
If the ethical issues associated with xenotransplants and other biotechnologies are
not clarified within the next few years, many people may suffer personal conse-
quences from such practices, and the world might witness unforeseen social conflict.
 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206 203

Table 3
Forecast of global demands for transplants

Transplants 1999 2010

Kidney transplants 33,000 300,000

Heart transplants 3,000 110,000
Lung transplants 1,200 30,000
Combined heart–lung transplants 150 20,000
Value of organ sales ⬎ $1 billion
Needed animal donor breeding units — 320
Annual revenues from pig organs — 5 billion

Source: D. Hofmann [16].

4.1.3. Conflict over personal freedom

Science fiction writers describe societies in which crime is eradicated by the instal-
lation of complicated surveillance and tracking devices [14]. However, history has
shown that when citizens lose their privacy and personal freedoms, governments and
others often seek to control people’s freedom [17]5. Thus, communication networks
could become powerful bargaining tools in the future.
If technology develops at its current or even projected pace, it would eventually
be possible to link all personal information into a single global database. Govern-
ments could then use this knowledge to control personal freedoms. In such a case,
people might not be aware that their rights and freedoms had been violated.
Many governments have already implemented huge databases to store personal
data. Conflict could arise when people disagree with government use of such data-
bases. Society will need to seek a new balance in the tradeoffs between the benefits
of globe-spanning information networks and the potential loss of personal privacy.

4.1.4. Conflict over information and dissemination

The installation of wide-bandwidth technology will bring access to many music,
movie, and television channels. A mass media that is linked to the Internet would,
theoretically, have no constraints. Yet, it is important that the government monitor
the media, as it can powerfully direct public opinion. For this reason, conflicts
between the government sector and the media will tend to become more serious in
the future.

4.2. Social disparities

New and unforeseen disparities between the wealthy and the poor, with the poten-
tial for added conflict, may appear. Such increasing economic disparity could be
caused by several technological factors, as follows.

5
The European Parliament debated a controversial resolution that would provide the technical infra-
structure to enable police agencies to eavesdrop on Internet, fax, and cell phone communications.
204 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

4.2.1. Disparities in access to information and IT

I believe new technologies could give the poor greater opportunities and more
income. At the same time, technology could also expand the opportunities and
income of the rich. The gap between the poor and the rich might become even wider
as digital technology gives those with access to it more effective production and
marketing systems, thereby resulting in higher personal productivity.
Digital technology may give people increased economic opportunities through
more direct access to the global marketplace. Digital technology business could give
small businesses, including one-man operations with a computer, an advantage. At
present, small home-based businesses are multiplying in North America and Europe.
As a result, the demand for skilled human resources in the IT field is increasing
while demands for traditional jobs are decreasing.
Within developing regions such as Asia, decreasing numbers of conventional,
labor-intensive jobs could mean the unskilled will remain unemployed. Social strati-
fication may occur by a new means. The new upper class could be defined as those
having access to information (the information elite). Those who cannot gain access
to the information channels or those who cannot adjust to the changing demands of
new technology will be isolated from information networks and associated economic
opportunities. This second scenario will characterize developing countries.
For this reason, the income gap between the developed and developing nations
will grow wider. About 93% of the world market for information technology is
concentrated in OECD nations while the remaining 7% is in the developing world.
Moreover, 75% of the world’s telephones are in North America, Western Europe,
and Japan [18].
Growing economic disparity due to technology-induced causes is also occurring
within nations. Data released from the US Department of Commerce reveals that
the so-called “digital divide” — the gap between those with access to telephones,
personal computers, and the Internet and those who do not have such access — is
growing significantly [19]. The gap in computer ownership and Internet access has
grown larger along education, income, and race divisions. Highly educated people,
high-income households, children from Caucasian families, and children from two-
parent families have greater opportunities to access information networks and Inter-
net technology than those who have low education, low income, and those from
black or single-parent families.

4.2.2. Disparities in access to biotechnology

Advances in biotechnology, especially those in the field of genetic research, will
greatly boost yields, crop quality and will lower the need for chemical solutions in
agricultural production. Farmers using biotechnology could have a greater compara-
tive advantage than those who do not. Thus, farmers in developing countries lacking
access to this technology will not be able to compete with those in the developed
countries.
We will also see disparity in R&D efforts. Scientific and technological research
in the medical, agriculture and technology fields is concentrated in the developed
countries, especially in the handful of large transnational companies. Trade agree-
 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206 205

ments will enforce the protection of intellectual property causing developments in

medical technology to remain in the hands of a few.

4.2.3. Disparities in access to employment

New digitization will not just deprive many workers of their jobs; it may leave
them stranded in a cyber society. In some cases, information technology does not
totally eliminate the need for humans but greatly reduces it. For example, translation
software provides a rough translation, but it cannot provide a coherent text. In other
cases, technology completely replaces the need for human agents. For example, digi-
tal technology has made getting an airline seat so simple that members of the public
have begun doing it for themselves rather than using a travel agent. Possibly, fewer
middle managers will be needed for supervision and reporting. Bank loan officers,
insurance clerks and middle managers could be the most common victims of down-
sizing. The new economy will create more new jobs in the developed countries but
it could help to inflate unemployment in developing countries as even moderate
increases in technology could replace large numbers of low-educated and low-skilled
laborers in these countries.

5. Conclusion

Globalization, along with digitization and biotechnologization, could produce cata-

strophic and beneficial effects in society over the next 20 years. The ability of
governments, corporations, community groups, and individuals to handle such future
trends will be contingent upon their ability to handle the changes that technology
has already thrust into way at present. Success is not only determined by our ability
to handle the present challenges, but even more so, to correctly foresee and to plan
for future ones as well.

References

[1] Human Factors and the Web. June 3, 1999. http://zing.ncsl.nist.gov/hfweb/proceedings/marcus.

[Accessed Jan. 27, 2000].
[2] British Telecommunications. Transformation of telecommunications. BT World Communication
Report, Sept. 1998. http://www.bt.com/global-Reports/1998-99/Trans.htm#growing [Accessed Jan.
27, 2000].
[3] Pelton JN. Cyberlearning vs. the university: an irresistible force meets an immovable object. The
Futurist 1996;Nov-Dec:17–20.
[4] Network Wizards. January 1999. http://www.nw.com/zone/WWW/top.html.
[5] American Management Association International. Business reliance on Internet will jump over 500%
by 1999. http://www.amanet.org/survet/netrel.htm [Accessed Jan.29, 2000]
[6] Port O. A new breed of thinking computer? Scientists race to combine living neurons and silicon.
Business Week 1999;Jun 21:86–7.
[7] Sag D. Industrial society and its future: a virtual reading. The Washington Post, 1997.
http://www.va.com.au/unabomber [Accessed Nov. 17, 1999].
206 K. Chareonwongsak / Technology in Society 24 (2002) 191–206

[8] USA Today. Quotes underscore problem of globalization.

2000.http://167.8.29.15/2000/global/globe003.htm [Accessed Jan. 29, 2000].
[9] The human face of the Internet. Asian Business, Jun 2000:36.
[10] Jordan T. A working week on the Net, alone. Asian Business 1999;35(12):20–4.
[11] Larnder J. World-class workaholics: are crazy hours and takeout dinners the elixir of America’s
success? US News and World Report 1999;127(24):42–53.
[12] Federal Trade Commission. Self regulation and privacy online: a report to congress. Bureau of
Consumer Protection, Jul. 1999. http://www.eff.org/pub/Privacy/199907—ftc—online—privacy—
report.html [Accessed Nov 17, 1999].
[13] Ogburn WF. Inventions, population and history. American Council of Learned Societies, Studies in
the History of Culture. Freeport, NY: Books for Libraries Press, 1942.
[14] Currie E. The Ambassador. London: Little, Brown, 1999.
[15] Weil V. Biotechnology and ethics: a blueprint for the future. Center for the Study of Ethics in the
Professions, Illinois Institute of Technology. http://www.biotech.nwu.edu/nsf/weil.html.
[16] Hofmann D. NZZ, xenotransplantation — der neue pharmaboom? Feb. 7, 1996.
http://www.nzz.ch/online/02—dossiers/gentech/gen960207hm.htm [Accessed Jan 7, 2000].
[17] Grayson R. Flash commerce. May 9, 1999.
http://flashcommerce.com/articles/99/05/09/091527350.shtml [Accessed July 7, 2000].
[18] Government of Canada. Canada 2005: global challenges and opportunities. Global Report.
http://www.schoolnet.ca/pri-prp/keydocs/global/07techknow-e.html [Accessed Sept 15, 1999].
[19] Trendline study on electronic access by households: 1984-1998, Part I: Household access. Survey
by U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of the Census.
http://www.ntia.doc.gov/ntiahome/fttn99/part1.html [Accessed Jan 8, 1999].

Kriengsak Chareonwongsak is a leading scholar in Thai society. As Executive Director of the Institute of
Future Studies for Development, he writes columns in several major Thai and English language newspapers
and regularly participates in government commissions, television programs, public forums, and international
academic conferences.