Beating the House: Roulette

Cameron Leslie
King Williams College
001345-0046
Introduction

“No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the

table while the croupier isn’t looking,” is a quote by Albert Einstein that

accurately reflects most opinions on roulette. Roulette is a casino

game, which most people believe is impossible to get an edge on. The

house edge is the percentage chance that the house or casino will beat

a player. There are methods to get an advantage over the casino

though, such as relying on a biased wheel or using a computer to track

the ball. One suggested method to beat roulette is by spreading bets

properly.

Through this investigation, I want to see whether the methods that

can be used to beat Roulette are possible. I chose this topic as I find it

interesting and I am curious as to how you can beat a game, which is

known by most professional gamblers for the “fact” that you can’t get

an edge on it. I wanted to see the different ways mathematics could be

applied to beat the casino's roulette wheel.

My interest in casino games has always been there as I have family

friends who are professional black jack players who are able to beat

the “house.” My interest in roulette arose specifically after I saw a

video on online roulette, which contained a “fool-proof way to beat

roulette.” The method used is known as the Martingale Strategy and is

inefficient and ineffective. It would also require an enormous bankroll

to be effective. It wouldn’t work in a real casino but it did get me

006718-008 1
curious as to whether it was possible to beat a game as unpredictable

as roulette.

Roulette

There are multiple types of Roulette, but for the sake of this

investigation, it will focus on French or single zero roulette. American

Roulette has an extra number, which is 00. 1 This gives an even greater

edge to the casino as opposed to the probability of winning being out

of 37 it is out of 38. This investigation will be using the French version

of roulette without the 00 number. European and French roulette have

the same amount of numbers but a different table layout. Figure 1

shows the layout of a French roulette table.2

The Game

In the game of Roulette, players choose to place their bets on either a

single number or a range of numbers, the colours red or black, or

whether a number is odd or even. To determine the winning number or

1 The Wizard of Odds. "Roulette." Last modified March 2, 2013.

wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/.
2 Shelley, Ron. "French Layout-Single Zero Wheel." Wikipedia. 1986.
Accessed March 9, 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:French_Layout-
Single_Zero_Wheel.jpg.

006718-008 2
colour, the croupier spins a wheel in one

direction and spins a ball in the opposite

direction on a small track around the

circumference of the wheel. When the ball

loses momentum, it falls into the wheel and

lands in one of 37 (38 in American roulette)

Figure 1
coloured and numbered pockets on the wheel.

The types of bets in Roulette are important to

understand, as each one gives the player a

different probability of winning. This is due to

different bets covering a different number of

squares. Different bets can also have different

payouts, which depend on the number of

squares being bet on. There are two types of

bets, an inside bet and an outside bet. An

inside bet has a lower probability of winning

3
and a larger payout.

Inside Bets
 Straight
o A bet on a single number or square
 Split
o A bet on two adjoining numbers (vertical or horizontal on
the betting table)
 Street

3 The Wizard of Odds. "Roulette." Last modified March 2, 2013.

wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/.

006718-008 3
 o A bet on three numbers in a single horizontal line.
 Corner
o A bet on 4 numbers in a square.
 Six line
o A bet placed on two adjoining streets.
 Trio
o A bet on 0, 1 and 2 or 0, 2 and 3.
 Basket
o A bet on 0, 1, 2 and 3.

Outside Bets
 Manque
o A bet on the numbers 1-18.
 Passe
o A bet on the number 19-36.
 Rouge ou Noir
o A bet on which colour the wheel will show (red or black)
 Pair ou Impair
o A bet on either an even number or an odd number not
including zero.
 Dozen Bets
o A bet on either the first, second or third group of twelve
numbers (1-12, 13-24, 25-36)
 Column Bets
o A bet on twelve numbers of one of the three vertical lines.
(1-34, 2-35, 3-36)
All of these different bets payout differently. The formula for calculating

the payout that a bet will have is:

1 36
payout= ( 36−n )= −1
n n
4
Where n is the number of squares the player is betting on.

Type Of Bet Number of Payo

Squares ut
Straight 1 35
Split 2 17
4 The Wizard of Odds. "Roulette." Last modified March 2, 2013.
wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/.

006718-008 4
Trio and Street 3 11
Basket and Corner 4 8
Six Line 6 5
Dozen and Column 12 2
Bets
Manque, passe, 18 1
rouge ou noir and
pair ou impair
The payout is designed in this way so that regardless of the number of

squares bet on, the casino will always get the same edge or expected

value.

The House Edge

The house edge or expected is the percentage of the bet that you will

lose on average in the long run. Calculating the expected value

requires knowledge of how much money that will either be won or lost,

the probability that the casino wins and the probability that the casino

loses. Due to the fact that the house edge is how much the casino will

win in the long run, it is not simply the probability that the casino will

beat you.5

The house edge can be calculated using expected value though, as the

house edge is a long-run average.

To find the expected value, let P ( X=x ) be the probability of an event

happening. This means that to find the house edge we need to find the

mean of P( X =x) . Assuming that a manque bet is made with £1, then

5 Play Roulette Online | Online Roulette Casino Reviews. "Roulette House

Edge | Online Roulette Games House Edge." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://www.roulettestar.com/house-edge.php.

006718-008 5
there are two events that could happen. There could be a gain of £1 by

the bettor or the loss of £1 by the bettor.

If we let x be either +1 or -1 (win or lose) then the respective

18 19
probabilities for P( X =x) are or . This can be more clearly
37 37

shown in the following probability distribution:

x +1 -1
P( X =x) 18 19
37 37
Considering that the expected value is the average of what will either

be won or lost in the long run, the expected value would be equal to

the mean of X .

The mean of X or the expected value of X can be found using the

formula:
i =n
E ( X )=∑ xi P( X =xi )
i=1

This is the same as:

E ( X )=x 1 ∙ P ( X =x 1) + x 2 ∙ P ( X =x 2 )+ …+ x n ∙ P ( X =xn )

This formula6 is the sum of all of the x values multiplied by the

corresponding P( X =x) values.

6 Buckle, Nigel, Iain Dunbar, and Fabio Cirrito. Mathematics Higher Level
(Core): International Baccalaureate. [Victoria]: IBID Press, 2007(521-526).

006718-008 6
This would mean in terms of roulette and the above probability

distribution, the expected value can be calculated as follows:

18 19
E ( X )=1 ∙ +(−1)∙
37 37

´
E ( X )=−0. 027

This means that for that if you are betting on a manque bet you would

on average lose 2.7% of what your betting to the casino and would not

gain anything. This is the expected value and the house edge. Making

different bets, which have different payouts, has similar results. For

example if a £1 split bet is made, two squares are bet on. Using the

payout formula:

36
−1=17
2

This means that that £1 bet would win a player £17. The probability of

2 35
that bet wining is and the probability of that bet losing is .
37 37

The probability distribution of this bet is:

x +17 -1
P( X =x) 2 35
37 37

If the same formula for the mean of X as shown above, the result is:

2 35
E ( X )=17 ∙ + (−1 ) ∙
37 37

´
E ( X )=−0. 027

006718-008 7
This demonstrates why the payout varies depending on the amount of

numbers that are bet on. It is so the expected value stays the same

regardless. This has the benefit of making it very hard to make the

house edge smaller. There are strategies though, which are supposed

to give the player a slight advantage.

Betting Methods

There are many betting methods, which are supposed to give the

player an advantage over the casino, but unfortunately most of them

are not successful. An example of this is the martingale strategy.

This is where a player makes a bet on a set of 18 numbers and doubles

their bet after a loss.7 This is an unfeasible method though as table

limits will prevent the amount of times that a bet can be doubled and

also there is a limit to the amount that players can afford. Also, if the

doubled bet wins, most of what is won is simply making up what was

lost. The profit will be only what the original bet would have won,

making it an inefficient method.

The James Bond method is a roulette strategy developed by writer Ian

Fleming. It involves spreading bets around to try and get an advantage

over the casino. It requires making three bets simultaneously; a passé,

7 Top Ten Las Vegas Tips, plus our How-to-Gamble guide. "Betting Systems --
Gambling systems explained." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://vegasclick.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html.

006718-008 8
a six line and a straight bet.8 This strategy involves spreading your

bets so certain amounts are placed on each of these bets.

70% of the bet is placed on the passe and 5% of the bet is placed on

the zero for the straight bet. 25% of the bet is placed on the six line

bet. If the amount of money that a player has to bet is £200, £10

would go on the zero for the straight bet. £140 would be placed on the

passe and £50 is placed on the straight bet. If any of these bets won,

they would each have a different return. The returns are as follows:

Bet Formula Payout Payout Including

Losses
Straight (£10) 36 £350 £160
1  35
1
Six line (£50) 36 £250 £100
1  5
6
Passe (£140) 36 £140 £80
  1  1
18
Although there is a small return 25 out of the 37 squares now have
 
bets on them. This means that the chance that the casino wins is now
 

reduced to 12 or 32.4%. The chance a player has of earning money

37

is 67.6%. The probability distribution of this method is shown as:

x +350 +250 +140 -200

P( X =x) 1 6 18 12
37 37 37 37

8 How To Win In A Casino | Roulette Strategy at MyCasinoStrategy. "Roulette

James Bond Strategy." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://mycasinostrategy.com/roulette+james+bond+strategy/1/MlW-
gRWfIpSPM9O3I1KzcNWrcdOjMhOfMhKvYZe7gRKjU5OLU9OHUlKLgdaPId.

006718-008 9
The expected value or the mean of X can be found using the same
formula as shown on page 6 of this exploration. The result is:
1 6 18 12
E ( X )=350 ∙ +250 ∙ +140 ∙ +(−200) ∙
37 37 37 37
´
E ( X )=53. 243
E (X ) ´
=0.26 621
200

This would mean on average if a player keeps making the same bets

with £200 spread as described in the method would win on average

26.6 pence for every pound that is be or £53 per £200 that is bet. This

is a large return for a game that is thought to be impossible to get an

edge on, which is why this is such a popular strategy. This result is

incorrect though, as it doesn’t incorporate the fact that receiving return

from one of the bets means that what was bet on other numbers is

lost. This means that the true probability distribution table is as

follows:

x +160 +130 +80 -200

P( X =x) 1 6 18 12
37 37 37 37

This means the actual expected value is:

1 6 18 12
E ( X )=160 ∙ +130 ∙ +80 ∙ +(−200)∙
37 37 37 37
´
E ( X )=−5.4 054
E( X) ´
=−0. 027
200

006718-008 10
This means that on average for each of the £200 bets made, the return

will be a loss of 5.4054 in the long-term. In the long term the expected

value would still be in favour of the casino. Even though this appears to
  method due to the fact that the number of squares the
be a good

bettor covers is more than the casino, it infact has the same expected

value as any other bet made on Roulette. This makes it a method of

betting, which would lead to loss in the long run.

A Generalisation

It can be proven that even with multiple bets, the result will always be

a loss through a generalisation of the formula.

Two bets are made that each cover n squares. Let these two bets be W1

and W2. As W1 and W2 are both bets, they will both be positive

numbers. W1 will cover n1 squares and W2 will cover n2 squares. The

bets cannot both win so the winning of one bet must lead to the loss of

the other. The information necessary to calculate the expected value is

demonstrated in the table below.

Bet Formula Payout Payout Chance of

including Winning
Loss
W1 36 W1 W1 n1
−1
n1 36 36
( n1 )
−1 (n1 )
−1 −W 2 37

W2 36 W2 W2 n2
−1
n2 36
( n2 )
−1 ( 36n −1)−W
1
1
37

37−(n1 +n2 )
The probability of both bets losing would be .
37

006718-008 11
 The expected value can be calculated by using this information. Both
the generalised probability distribution table and the expected value
are shown below.

x W1 W2 − (W1+ W2)
36 36
( n1 )
−1 −W 2 ( n1 )
−1 −W 1

P(X  x) n1 n2 37−(n1 +n2 )

37 37 37

W
W
 
(¿ ¿ 2 ( 36n −1)−W )∙ 37n +−(W +W )∙ 37−(37n + n )
2
1
2
1 2
1 2

36 n
E ( X )=(¿ ¿ 1 ( n −1 )−W )∙ +¿ 1
2
1 37
¿

36W 1 n 36 W 2 n 37−(n1 +n2 )

E ( X )=( −W 1−W 2 )∙ 1 +( −W 2−W 1) ∙ 2 +−(W 1 +W 2 )∙
n1 37 n2 37 37

36W 1 W 1 n1 W 2 n1 36 W 2 W 2 n2 W 1 n2 −(W 1 +W 2 )(37−n1−n 2)

E ( X )=( − − )+( − − )+
37 37 37 37 37 37 37

36 W 1 W 1 n1 W 2 n1 36 W 2 W 2 n2 W 1 n 2 −37 W 1+W 1 n1 +W 2 n1−37W 2+ W 2 n2+ W 2 n2

E ( X )= − − + − − +
37 37 37 37 37 37 37

36 W 1 37 W 1 36 W 2 37 W 2
E ( X )= − + −
37 37 37 37

W
−( ¿ ¿ 1+ W 2)
37
E X )=¿
(
As the wager is W1 and W2 together, to get the expected value per

pound, you must divide the expected value by (W1 + W2).

006718-008 12
 W
−1
(¿ ¿ 1+W 2 )=
37
E( X)
¿

W
´
(¿ ¿ 1+W 2 )=−0. 027
E(X)
¿

This proves that the expected value will always be ´

−0. 027 even with

spread bets.

Predicting the wheel

There are other ways to beat a roulette wheel. One method is to

establish if a wheel has any bias. This is a possible solution, but is not

worth trying.

Wheels with biases are very hard to find, as when an obvious bias is

revealed, the wheel is replaced so the casino can get back its edge. It

requires viewing a wheel hundreds of times and if it is established that

a bias exists, when someone wins consistently, a casino is likely to

investigate and change the wheel. Another method, which has been

proven to be successful, uses the initial position, velocity and

acceleration of the ball to ascertain the area that the ball will end up

in.9 The American institute of physics, has recently released a paper 10

9 The Free Library. "How to win at roulette." Last modified October 20, 2012.
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/How%20to%20win%20at%20roulette.-
a0305780128.

10 Full paper can be found at:

http://school.maths.uwa.edu.au/~small/pdf/Chaos22-6.pdf

006718-008 13
on this subject.11 The key behind the method shown in the paper is

separating the path of the ball into four stages. These stages are: when

the ball has a fast enough momentum that it remains in the rim of the

wheel, when the balls momentum drop enough that it leaves the rim of

the wheel, when the ball is rotating freely around the wheel but not in

the rim and when the ball starts to hit the deflectors. For an accurate

prediction, the angle of the wheel also needs to be included in the

calculation. One consideration that made calculations within this paper

easier though, is the fact that the only difference in every spin is the

time the ball spends in the rim. The velocity of the ball when it leaves

the rim will be the exact same in every case as the balls are all of the

same exact size and weight. This means that by finding the point at

which the ball leaves the rim is how the final location of the ball will be

found. Edward O. Thorpe has also released a paper on predicting the

outcome of roulette although it is not as detailed as the previous one.12

11 Small, Michael, and Chi Kong Tse. "Predicting the Outcome of

Roulette."Interdisciplinary 22 (2012): Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/22/3/10.1063/1.4753920.
12 Thorpe, Edward O. "The Invention of the First Wearable Computer."
Columbia University. Last modified January 20, 2003.
http://monet.cs.columbia.edu/courses/mobwear/resources/thorp-iswc98.pdf.

006718-008 14
Conclusion

Unlike in Internet roulette, which uses sophisticated random number

generators, it is very possible to predict the outcome of a physical

roulette wheel by using the velocity and initial position when the ball

leaves the rim of the wheel. It is not possible though, to beat Roulette

through spreading bets, even though it appears to be possible. The

expected value for French roulette will always be ´ , regardless

−0. 027

of spreading bets or how many squares a better covers. A game, which

was considered unbeatable for so many years by mathematicians, is

now beatable due to computers, laser scanners and applying physics

to the model. Without the aid of computers though, the casino will

always beat a player in roulette.

006718-008 15
Bibliography
Buckle, Nigel, Iain Dunbar, and Fabio Cirrito. Mathematics Higher Level
(Core):
International Baccalaureate. [Victoria]: IBID Press, 2007(521-526).

How To Win In A Casino | Roulette Strategy at MyCasinoStrategy. "Roulette

James Bond Strategy." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://mycasinostrategy.com/roulette+james+bond+strategy/1/MlW-
gRWfIpSPM9O3I1KzcNWrcdOjMhOfMhKvYZe7gRKjU5OLU9OHUlKLgdaPId.

Play Roulette Online | Online Roulette Casino Reviews. "Roulette House Edge |
Online Roulette Games House Edge." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://www.roulettestar.com/house-edge.php.

Shelley, Ron. "French Layout-Single Zero Wheel." Wikipedia. 1986. Accessed

March 9, 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:French_Layout-
Single_Zero_Wheel.jpg.

Small, Michael, and Chi Kong Tse. "Predicting the Outcome of

Roulette."Interdisciplinary 22 (2012): Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/22/3/10.1063/1.4753920.

The Free Library. "How to win at roulette." Last modified October 20, 2012.
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/How%20to%20win%20at%20roulette.-
a0305780128.

The Wizard of Odds. "Roulette." Last modified March 2, 2013.

wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/.

Thorpe, Edward O. "The Invention of the First Wearable Computer." Columbia

University. Last modified January 20, 2003.
http://monet.cs.columbia.edu/courses/mobwear/resources/thorp-iswc98.pdf.

Top Ten Las Vegas Tips, plus our How-to-Gamble guide. "Betting Systems --
Gambling systems explained." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://vegasclick.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html.

006718-008 16