China?s Challenge: The Opportunities and Risks That China?s Booming Economy Provides
China?s Challenge: The Opportunities and Risks That China?s Booming Economy Provides
China?s Challenge: The Opportunities and Risks That China?s Booming Economy Provides
net/publication/46469169
CITATIONS READS
2 644
1 author:
SEE PROFILE
Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:
Cognitive Framework of High-Impact Entrepreneurs and Reasons for the Almost Complete Absence of High-Growth Ambition of Early-Stage Entrepreneurs in Brazil View
project
All content following this page was uploaded by Ronald Jean Degen on 27 May 2014.
2009
globADVANTAGE
Center of Research in International Business & Strategy
INDEA - Campus 5
Rua das Olhalvas
Instituto Politécnico de Leiria
2414 - 016 Leiria
PORTUGAL
Tel. (+351) 244 845 051
Fax. (+351) 244 845 059
E-mail: globadvantage@ipleiria.pt
Webpage: www.globadvantage.ipleiria.pt
Address:
E-mail: degen@lomasnegras.com
Phone: +55 41 9918 9000
Cabanha Orgânica Lomas Negras Ltda.
Caixa Postal 95
Campo Alegre, SC
89294-000 Brasil
ABSTRACT
The capability of designing to very low cost, and to compete successfully in
the tough Chinese market can be transformed into a competitive advantage
in other markets. On the other hand, MNCs that are not successfully in
China will probably not acquire these capabilities. They will be in a cost
disadvantage to compete against Chinese companies in their own markets.
They run the risk of becoming secondary players to Chinese companies in
the world market, as those competing in the microwave-ovens market
against Galanz found out the hard way. MNCs have no choice; they have to
accept ‘China’s challenge’ to continue world players. They have to win in
China or lose everywhere.
China’s challenge
China’s amazing growth of ten percent a year over the last thirty years
is without precedent. In these years, China has transformed itself from an
economical and technological backward nation into one of the world’s most
dynamic economies. It has opened its doors to new ideas and techniques,
introduced competition to all aspects of production, strengthened its
commitment to widespread education, and taken advantage of the
opportunities offered by its World Trade Organization (WTO) membership.
In 2004, for the first time, China attracted more foreign direct investment
than the United States. The world’s fastest-growing economy is now the
second largest behind only the United States, and by mid-century, it is
expected to be number one. This means that any company that wants to be
a key international payer has to be successful in the Chinese market (ALI,
and GUO, 2005).
Some multinationals like Procter & Gamble (P&G) realized that the
initial strategy to enter the market, by building market share for selected
products in selected large cities, in what is called the upper-tier cities
premium consumer market segment, was running out of growth
opportunities. This strategy was leaving the door open for Chinese
competitors to grown unchallenged in the lower-end consumer market. P&G
saw the opportunities offered by fast changing and growing Chinese market,
and in 2001 started its expansion into the mid-tier cities consumer market.
This move put P&G in direct competition with Chinese companies that often
had lower operating costs and a better understanding of the local markets.
In some product categories the cost differences between P&G traditional
products and those that the Chinese consumers in the lower-end market
could afford was so wide that just making the product cheaper by changing
some ingredients was not enough for P&G to become competitive (Hexter
and Woetzel, 2007, p. 6-7).
Corruption may have helped lubricate the economic reforms but over
the longer term it has potentially explosive consequences for China’s
economic and political future, as Johnston (2001, p. 8) and Minxin (2007, p.
1) points out. Illicit practices such as bribery, kickbacks, theft, and
misspending of public money cost at least 3 percent of GDP, according to
Minxin (2007, p. 1). It is also undermining the legitimacy of the ruling
Chinese Communist Party, widening income inequalities between those that
are benefiting from the economic reforms and those that are being
marginalized, and so fueling social unrest by inciting popular resentment
against the highly-visible new rich class of profiting bureaucrats and
entrepreneurs.
that the early affluent consumers that MNCs sold to in the 90s. At the same
time competition between Chinese and foreign companies for the share of
wallet in every consumer segment and business-to-business category is
becoming ferocious.
customers in the premium market of the large coastal cities, and especially
to customers in developed economies. The lower-end market Chinese,
permits companies to experiment with ‘disruptive innovations’, in less
demanding applications, and among non-traditional customers. They can
promote their ‘creative creation’, develop new ‘disruptive innovations’, and
let them grow and mature with almost no competition, before taking them
up-market to more sophisticated customers, and much tougher competition
in the premium market of the large coastal cities. If successful in China,
they then can then conquer the world markets, as Galanz and other Chinese
companies did.
Gadiesh and Vestring (2006) point out that the MNCs that are
accepting China’s challenge are aware of the threat posed by Chinese
entrepreneurs and the ‘disruptive innovation’. They are doing more than
just competing for the share of wallet of the rapid expanding lower-end
market. They are using the Chinese lower-end market to warm up for the
future worldwide competition. They are building the expertise, business
capabilities and production scale to export their Chinese products and
business know-how to other emerging markets, primarily India and Brazil,
and then building on their success and production scale to developed
13
markets. These MNCs know that China is the lead market in preparing them
to pursue businesses in other developing markets, it is also clear to these
companies that to continue succeeding globally they have to win in China
first, as P&G is winning.
beyond the premium market to China's more than 300 second-tier cities,
particularly to the 120 that have populations over one million, and
approximately 1,200 county-level third-tier cities. The race is now on to sell
in places like Yantai, Shaoxing, and Wuxi, writhe Lannes and Zhu (2009),
where middle-class incomes is rising the same way they rose in first-tier
cities earlier in the decade. China's second-tier cities now represent about
88 percent of the country's GNP. As a group, those cities experienced a
twelve-fold increase in household disposable income per capita in the years
between 2002 and 2006, while retail sales rose 79 percent. By comparison,
in first-tier cities household disposable income rose 61 percent and retail
sales increased by 80 percent in the same period.
There are many reasons for the rapid expansion of the ‘good-enough
market’. The main reason is obviously the rising income of Chinese
consumer as a direct consequence of the extraordinary growth of the
country over the last three decades. These consumers with rising income
are trading up from the lower-end products they previously purchased.
These new consumer are the driving forces for Galanz and Haier’s rapid and
successful growth, but also for the success of P&G, and specially the
spectacular growth of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) and Carrefour in China.
Curiously KFC could not duplicate its Chinese success formula to other
large developing markets like Brazil, were with only four restaurants in Rio
de Janeiro in 2009 it is struggling way behind McDonalds’ 1,144 points of
sale - 541 restaurants, 556 kiosks, and 47 McCafés - in 134 cities, of 21
states and the federal capital. According to Liu (2008) a vital ingredient in
KFC’s success was its leadership team. The team known as the ‘Taiwan
Gang’, because most of the senior member came from Taiwan, had
accumulated at least 10 years of fast-food industry prior to arriving in
China, and though predominantly Western-educated, being ethnic Chinese,
they inherently understood China. The experience and the understanding of
the culture led to an intuitive knowledge of the market context, which then
put KFC China on track to becoming a successful enterprise. Liu explains
this point: “In order to be successful, especially for foreign companies or
non-local companies, a deep and broad understanding of the market
context is critical to success. To the extent that the understanding is even
intuitive, meaning that you don't have to do the market research, you don't
have to have multiple meetings to come to the best solution to a problem,
or to point to a future strategic direction” (Cho, 2009). This means that KFC
had the right team to succeed in China and probably did not in Brazil, were
it has been struggling for decades.
back in 2006 with the purchase of Trust-Mart the Taiwanese owned top
retailer in China. However, Carrefour remains stronger than Wal-Mart in
terms of revenue per outlet, and continues to lead the field in many
innovations in the Chinese modern grocery market.
R&D in China
The success of P&G, KFC and Carrefour are based on designing the
right products for the emerging Chinese consumer in the fast expanding
middle market or ‘good-enough market’. The implication is that any MNC
that wants to succeed in this market needs to have the necessary product
research and development (R&D) capability combined with a good
understanding of the needs and aspirations of the emerging Chinese
consumer. Besides doing R&D to serve the Chinese market, an ever
increasing number of MNCs are betting that their product development
capabilities in China will eventually become for their hub for their global
R&D efforts, particularly in categories were competition is becoming
increasingly ferocious like the pharmaceutical and chemical industries, and
specially the high-tech consumer electronic area. The reason being that the
costs of doing R&D in developing countries are increasing, and a Chinese
R&D base could add up to substantial savings, particularly in products were
R&D costs are important component in the final cost of the product (Hexter
and Woetzel, 2007, p. 71).
This means that the Chinese company spends 80 percent less on R&D for
their routers, and so have a cost advantage of 16 percent for R&D alone.
The authors conclude: “A company needs extremely persuasive arguments
for it to forgo that sort of advantage by keeping R&D in its developed home
market”. An interesting example of R&D in China is the chemical giant
BASFs that has seven R&D sites in China, covering polyurethane, poly-THF,
construction chemicals, dispersion, coating & specialties, textile auxiliaries,
leather, pharmaceutical solutions, nutrition ingredients, personal care
ingredients, care chemicals & formulators, engineering plastics, plasticizer,
engineering unit, catalysts, electronic material and etc. (BASF, 2009).
about making cars but proved to be a quick study. In October a BYD sedan
called the F3 became the bestselling sedan in China, topping well-known
brands like the Volkswagen Jetta and Toyota Corolla. BYD has also begun
selling a plug-in electric car with a backup gasoline engine, a move putting
it ahead of GM, Nissan, and Toyota. BYD's plug-in, called the F3DM for ‘dual
mode’, goes farther on a single charge - 62 miles - than other electric
vehicles and sells for about $22,000, less than the plug-in Prius and much-
hyped Chevy Volt are expected to cost when they hit the market in late
2010. Put simply, this little-known upstart has accelerated ahead of its
much bigger rivals in the race to build an affordable electric car. Today BYD
employs 130,000 people in 11 factories, eight in China and one each in
India, Hungary, and Romania.
The title of the last chapter of Hexter and Woetzel’s (2007) book “win
in China or lose everywhere” says it all. The examples of Galanz, Haier, and
BYD clearly demonstrate that the new champions for every industry are
being incubated in China. Companies, Chinese of MNCs, that learn to
compete and win in the fast growing Chinese ‘good-enough market’, will
build strong positions to win in the global market, especially in the large
emerging markets of Brazil and India. The scale of the Chinese market will
give companies that are successful in China a global structural advantage
over companies that did not accept China’s challenge.
REFERENCES
ALI, Shaukat, and GUO, Wei, Guo, 2005, Determinants of FDI in China,
Journal of Global Business and Technology, Volume 1, Number 2, Fall
BASF, 2009, BASF Greater China R&D sites, http://www.greater-
china.basf.com (assessed June 2009)
BERGSTEN, C. Fred, GILL, Bates, LARDY, Nicholas R., and MITCHELL, Derek
J., 2006, China: The balance sheet, Public Affairs, New York
BRADSHER, Keith, 2009, Green power takes root in China, The New
York Times, July 2, http://www.nytimes.com (assessed July 4)
CHILD, Peter, 2006, Lessons from a global retailer: An interview with
the president of Carrefour, China, McKinsey Quarterly, (2006 Special
Edition: Serving the new Chinese consumer), p. 70-81,
www.mckinseyquarterly.com (assessed June 2009)
CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2009, China by Numbers 2009, China
Economic Review Publishing, Hong Kong
CHRISTENSEN, Clay, 1997, The innovator’s dilemma: When new
technologies cause great firms to fail, Harvard Business School
Press, Boston
CHO, Karen, 2009, KFC China's recipe for success, ISEAD Knowledge,
July 1, knowledge.insead.edu/KFCinChina090323.cfm?vid=195
CHOW, Gregory C., 2007, China’s economic transformation, Blackwell
Publishers, Oxford
CHOW, Gregory C., 2005, Corruption and China’s economic reform in the
early 21st century, CEPS Working Paper No. 116, Princeton University,
October, www.princeton.edu/ceps/workingpapers/116chow.pdf
(assessed June 2009)
20
DEGEN, Ronald J., 2009 (1), Opportunity for luxury brands in China,
www.globadvantage.ipleiria.pt, Working Paper no 31 (assesses June
2009)
DEGEN, Ronald J., 2009 (2), Understanding China’s historical
development: The profit and the risks that China’s stock market
provides investors, www.globadvantage.ipleiria.pt, Working Paper no
35 (assessed June 2009)
DiPAOLA, Paul, and LI, Jerry, 2007, From “Made in China” to “Invented
in China”, Bain & Company, p. 3
FARHOOMAN, Ali F., WOO, Claudia H.L., 2006, Business corruption in China,
Asia Case Research Center, The University of Hong Kong,
http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu (assessed June 2009)
FARRELL, Diana, GERSCH, Ulrich A., and STEPHENSON, Elisabeth, 2006,
The value of China’s emerging middle class, McKinsey Quarterly,
(2006 Special Edition: Serving the new Chinese consumer), p. 60-69,
www.mckinseyquarterly.com (assessed June 2009)
FERNANDES, Juan A., and UNDERWOOD, Laurie, 2009, China
entrepreneur: Voices of experience, John Wiley & Sons, Singapore
GADIEESH, Orit, and VESTRING, Till, 2006, China’s ‘good-enough’
market, The Wall Street Journal Asia, September 5.
GADIEESH, Orit, LEUNG, Philip, and VESTRING, Till, 2007, The battle for
China’s good-enough market, Harvard Business Review, September,
www.hbrreprint.org, Reprint R0709E (assessed June 2009)
GE, Gloria L., and DING, Daniel Z., 2007, A strategic analysis of surging
Chinese manufacturers: The case of Galanz, Published online: 10
November, Springer Science and Business Media,
GUNTHER, Marc, 2009, Warren Buffett takes charge, Fortune Magazine,
April 13,
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/13/technology/gunther_electric.fortune
(assessed June 2009)
HART, Stuart L., and CHRISTENSEN, Clayton M., 2002, The great leap:
Driving innovation from the base of the pyramid, MIT Sloan Management
Review, Fall, www.mit-smr.com, Reprint no 4415, (assessed June 2009)
HEXTER, James R., 2006, Better manufacturing in China: An interview
with two of PLP’s executives, McKinsey Quarterly 3, October,
www.mckinseyquarterly.com (assessed June 2009)
HEXTER, Jimmy, and WOETZEL, Jonathan, 2007, Operation China: From
strategy to execution, Harvard Business School Press, Boston
HOOVER, William, 2006, Making China your second home market: An
interview with the CEO of Danfoss, McKinsey Quarterly 1, p. 84-93,
www.mckinseyquarterly.com (assessed June 2009)
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDErro! A referência da hiperligação
não é válida.,
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/weoselgr.aspx
(assessed June 2009)
21
JIN, Yang, Planner, 2003, The history and civilization of China, Central
Party Literature Press, Beijing
JOHNSON, Roberta Ann, 2008, Corruption: Dare we compare the United
States and China, Paper delivered at the Western Political Science
Association meeting, March 20-22, San Diego, California,
www.allacademic.com/meta/p238323_index.html (assessed June 2009)
JOHNSTON, Michael, 2001, Corruption in China: Old ways, new
realities and a troubled future, Department of Political Science
Colgate University,
people.colgate.edu/mjohnston/MJ%20papers%2001/currhist.pdf
(assessed June 2009)
LANNES, Bruno, and ZHU, Larry Zhu, 2009, The race for "small" town
China, The Far Eastern Economic Review, January 14th,
http://www.profitfromthecore.com/bainweb/Publications, (assesses June
2009)
LEWIS, W. Arthur, 1954, Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of
Labour, The Manchester School, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 139-191.
LIEBERTHAL, Kenneth, and LIEBERTHAL, Geoffrey, 2003, The great
transition, Harvard Business Review, October, www.hbrreprint.org,
Reprint R0310D (assessed June 2009)
LIU, Warren K., 2008, KFC in China: Secret recipe for success, John
Wiley & Sons, Singapore
MALKIEL, Burton G., and TAYLOR, Patricia A., MEI, Jianping, and YANG, Rui,
2008, From Wall Street to the Great Wall: How investors can
profit from China’s booming economy, W. W. Norton & Company,
New York
McEWEN, William, FANG, Xiaoguang, ZHANG, Chuanping, and
BURKHOLDER, Richard, 2006, Inside the mind of the Chinese
Consumer, Harvard Business Review, March, www.hbrreprint.org,
Reprint R0603D (assessed June 2009)
McKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE, 2006, From made in China to sold in
China: The rise of the urban consumer, November,
www.mckinsey.com (assessed June 2009)
MINXIN, Pei, 2007, Corruption threatens China’s future, Policy Brief 55,
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 2007,
www.carnegieendowment.org (assessed June 2009)
MORISSET, Denis, and LEE, Lawrence, 2008, Welcome to the China
luxury summit 2008, http://www.chinaluxurysummit.com (accessed
April 2009)
SCHUMPETER, Joseph A., 1942, Capitalism, socialism and democracy,
Harper & Brothers, New York
TIMES global luxury survey: China, India, Russia, 2007, Time,
September 17, pg. 108
UNITED NATIONS IN CHINA, 2008, China’s progress towards the millennium
development goals 2008 Report, Published Jointly by Ministry of Foreign
22
Affairs of the People's Republic of China and the United Nations System
in China, http://www.un.org.cn/index.htm (assessed June 2009)
YUEH, Linda, 2008, China’s entrepreneurs, University of Oxford,
Department of Economics, Discussion Paper no 324,
www.economics.ox.ac.uk/Research/wp/pdf/paper324.pdf (assessed June
2009)
ZHANG, Z. John, 2006, How and why Chinese firms excel, in the art of
price war, Knowledge@Wharton, December,
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewarticle&rid=1625