Investment Analysis of Marginal Fields

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management
United Kingdom ISSN 2348 0386 Vol. VII, Issue 7, July 2019
http://ijecm.co.uk/
INVESTMENT ANALYSIS OF MARGINAL FIELDS’ DEVELOPMENT

IN NIGERIA USING REAL OPTIONS APPROACH
Ogunsola-Saliu K
Centre for Petroleum, Energy Economics and Law (CPEEL), University of Ibadan, Nigeria
kennyg4ever2002@yahoo.com
Falode O.A
Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Technology, University of Ibadan, Nigeria
Adenikinju A.A
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Ibadan, Nigeria
Abstract
Marginal fields (MFs) are economically sensitive, and investments in them are very challenging.
Literature abound on the use of traditional financial models to evaluate investment analysis of
MFs. However, none of these captures unexpected market developments and changing
conditions. Therefore, this study investigates the investment analysis of MFs using Real Options
Approach (ROA) with emphasis on uncertainties, flexibilities, and their values in Nigeria. The
Traditional financial model was modified by incorporating three new uncertainty variables
captured under Niger Delta militant insurgencies [cost of repairing /replacing vandalised facilities
(CR), ransom paid to kidnappers (RP), and total revenue lost resulting from annual shut-down
(AS)]. The model was validated using secondary and primary data from producing MFs.
Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the impact of key uncertainty variables. Three
approaches of ROA, Deferral Option (DO), Abandonment Option (AO) and Expansion Option
(EO), were also employed to evaluate the profitability of both projects. The values of Net
Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return and Payback Period confirmed investment profits
for offshore and onshore MFs projects. Result showed that Oil price was the most sensitive on
Licensed under Creative Common Page 124

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, United Kingdom
the offshore’s NPV, while the Gas price had the most effect on the onshore’s NPV. The AS was
the most sensitive among the insurgency variables for both projects. Additional values on
investment were obtained from ROA approaches relative to the NPV valuation. In conclusion,
decision making in marginal fields’ investment is more guided using real options approach as it
is more exploratory and informative than the traditional financial models.
Keywords: Marginal fields investment analysis, Real options approach, Traditional financial
models
INTRODUCTION
Statement of Problem
As larger fields become exhausted, countries across the world are finding an alternative
production model to maximise their energy resource endowments by exploiting viable
alternative solutions in small or secluded fields (ABT oil and gas, 2014). This was why in 2003,
The Federal Government of Nigeria awarded 30 marginal fields out of the available 183 in order
to grow more reserves of petroleum assets and encourage the participation of local companies
in the upstream sector. This development was hinged on the local content initiative of the
Federal Government of Nigeria whose main objectives are the involvement of local companies
in the upstream sector of the petroleum industry towards a higher level of indigenisation, and
growing more reserves of petroleum assets (Idigbe and Bello, 2013).
Reports (for example, Uche, 2011; Chijioke, 2013; Osaneku, 2013; Idigbe and Bello,
2013; Eboh and Obasi, 2014; Adeogun and Iledare, 2015; Ashore, 2015; Ekeh and Asekomeh,
2015 and Akinwale and Akinbami, 2016) reveal that Nigeria has a enormous reservoir of
marginal fields, predictably put at over 2.3 billion barrels of Stock Tank Oil Initially in Place
(STOIIP) spread over 183 marginal fields‟. Exploring these marginal fields would increase the
country‟s daily production of oil. However, regardless of this commendable marginal fields‟
policy, the success and the involvement of the indigenous explorers in the field are still marginal
because, only few have made significant progress in producing from the fields, after its initiation
in the year 2003. According to the 2015 financial statement of the Nigerian National petroleum
Corporation, marginal fields only contributed about 3%, while the Production Sharing Contract
(PSC), Independent and Sole risks, Alternative Funding – Joint Venture (AF-JV) and Joint
Venture (JV) contributed 42%, 7%, 16%, 32% respectively to the total crude oil production in
Nigeria. This has been attributed to various challenges that marginal fields‟ investors did not
envisage and properly planned for (Awotiku, 2011).Presently, only 12 out of the 30 marginal

© Ogunsola-Saliu, Falode & Adenikinju
fields (that is 40%) have taken their fields‟ to the first oil production, which is not in accordance
with the desired pace of the federal government initiative. These necessitated the conduct of
empirical studies to investigate what could be responsible for the slow pace of the marginal oil
and gas fields‟ development by the indigenous oil companies in Nigeria.
A number of studies have investigated the marginal oil fields development in Nigeria and
issues covered included the status, constraints, challenges and prospects of marginal fields;
Uche, 2011; Chijioke, 2013; Osaneku, 2013; Idigbe and Bello, 2013; Eboh and Obasi, 2014;
Adeogun and Iledare, 2015; Ashore, 2015; Ekeh and Asekomeh, 2015 and Akinwale and
Akinbami, 2016. These studies highlighted some of the challenges the marginal oil field
operators faced. Such as, legislative and policy bottlenecks, delay in the government approval
process of marginal fields‟ award, uncertainty of assistance from foreign equity partners and
local investors, unfavourable tax regimes and multiple taxation, inadequacies in local content
development policy, oil price volatility, delay in delivery of finance services from financial
institutions, continuous community disturbances, increased asset vandalisation and illegal
refining of crude oil.
Investors that the Nigerian marginal fields were awarded to seemingly have not identified
all the associated risks; hence, difficulty in moving from bid winning to field development. Some
of the identified risks include: Technical Risks: (that is existing well not having technical
integrity/casing integrity), low reserves and militant insurgencies.
Some other risks that were however, made known to the companies from documents
and information provided prior to bidding process include: High Gas- Oil Ratio (GOR), the total
numbers of existing wells drilled and the total number of fields with reserves and nearness to
existing facilities in order to transport or store the crude oil or gas.
Managers are faced with different uncertainties in nearly every aspect of their decisions
(Janney and Dess, 2004) and most investors do not fully realise the unbelievable stress the
industry is under, and the risk factors affecting the oil and gas sector (Energy Digital, 2011). To
guarantee the success of a project, it is of utmost importance for the manager to find ways of
handling risks and uncertainties that can pose possible risks before and after the project. This
led to the research questions that this thesis addressed:
1. In the midst of various uncertainties like oil price volatility, militant insurgency, amongst
others, can marginal fields‟ investment be profitable in Nigeria?
2. What are the key uncertainty variables that can affect the profitability of the marginal
fields‟ development?

3. How can the applicability of Real Option Approach (ROA) be an active management tool
in deciding when to defer, abandon or expand a project in the midst of various
uncertainties?
Research Objectives
The primary objective of this study is to analyse the investment decisions in marginal fields‟
development in Nigeria using Real Options Approach.
The specific objectives are to:
I. Modify an existing Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model by incorporating new uncertainty
variables in order to obtain the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
and Payback Period (PP) for the marginal fields‟ development.
II. Evaluate the effect of various risks and uncertainties on the Net Present Value, Internal
Rate of Return and Payback Period using sensitivity analysis.
III. Show the applicability of Real Options Approach in some selected marginal fields‟ in
Nigeria via options to defer, abandon or expand at anytime, during the relinquishment
requirement period.
Justification for the Study

Economic analysis is an essential part of every field development, as it is the pivot on which
several other decisions revolve, and also helps to identify the best investment opportunities in
terms of cost, revenue and risk mitigation (Awotiku, 2011). Many empirical studies like:
(Abisoye, 2001; Awotiku, 2011; Uche, 2011; Chijioke, 2013; Adamuet al., 2013;Osaneku, 2013;
Idigbe and Bello, 2013; Eboh and Obasi, 2014; Adeogun and Iledare, 2015; Ashore, 2015; Ekeh
and Asekomeh, 2015 and Akinwale and Akinbami, 2016 ) have used different evaluation models
such as, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis via Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of
Return (IRR), Payback Period (PP), Profitability Index (PI) and undiscounted profit to investment
ratio to assess the economic viability of developing fields.
After reviewing various related literature, this study admits that The NPV only takes into
consideration the likely outcomes required for the development. It does not account for the
changing conditions, new information and flexibility that are open to the operator after the initial
go or no go project decision must have been taken. Hence the NPV is static and if initial
evaluations lead to a negative NPV, the suggestion would be that the field development does
not continue (MacLean, 2005). For instance, managers can increase the size of a production
operation in response to increase in unexpected demand, or cut funding for a research project
that is not discovering marketable products. This flexibility has a value that is not captured by

the traditional DCF approach (Damodaran, 2003; Kodukula, 2006; Abisoye, 2007; Bowman and
Moskowitz, 2011; Acheampong, 2010; Pire et al., 2012 ).Therefore, using such techniques to
evaluate the development of marginal fields‟ project does not show any benefit in the economics
of the field development model (MacLea, 2005).
For the purpose of this research, more literatures were reviewed to ascertain the best
model or option that will incorporate future uncertainties plus flexibilities values and weighs the
options available to guide investment decisions in the marginal fields‟ development.
The use of Real Option analysis was considered as an evaluation model in the
investment analysis of marginal fields development because it adds more value to the
evaluation process of oil field developments compared to traditional methods of making
investment decisions. Since real options, incorporates the value of flexibility to projects, upfront
capital expenditure can be saved if the project is considered not viable (Abisoye, 2001,
Acheampong, 2010).
A visual illustration of effect of flexibility on a project value is shown in figure 1.
Figure 1: Project value with and without real options

Source: Trigeorgis, 1996, p. 123

Figure 1 demonstrates that the effect of flexibility of real options is a probability distribution of
the project value skewed. The downside loss is limited by the options, and the upside potential
gain is improved. This skewness opposes the symmetric probability distribution under passive
management presented by the traditional NPV. In other words, options provide adapting tools to
react to future events different from those incorporated in the expected NPV analysis (Thuesen
and Carlsen, 2015).
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Oil and Gas Exploration and Production in Nigeria
Table 1 Snapshot of the History of Oil& Gas Exploration in Nigeria

YEAR HAPPENINGS
1907 The search for oil deposits started in Nigeria
1914 Efforts ended because of the outbreak of World War I
1923 After the World War I license was given to the D‟Arcy Exploration Company and White
Hall Petroleum. Neither of them found oil in commercial quantity so the license was
returned
1937 Exploration began again. Shell and British Petroleum (Shell D‟Archy) were granted the
sole concessionary right over the whole country. They enjoyed a monopoly of
exploration
1939-1945 Activities were terminated by world war II (WWII)
1946 Exploration wells were drilled by Shell after WWII
1951 1st test well was drilled in Owerri Area
1953 Oil was discovered in non commercial quantities
1956 1st commercial oil was discovered in an Olobiri field in the Niger Delta
1958 Second Oil discovery at Afam & the giant Bomu oil field/ First shipment of oil from
Nigeria
1960s Petroleum Sector Started playing a vital role in the economy and a total of 847,000
tonnes of crude oil was exported
1962 Elf and Nigeria Agip Oil company started operations in Nigeria
1963 The Ubata gas field was discovered by Elf and started their first production
1968 Mobil Producing Nigeria Limited was formed
1971 Nigeria joined the Oil producing, exporting countries
1970 Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) Inspectorate started/ Mobil and Agip
started production
1973 First Participation Agreement; Federal Government acquires 35% shares in the oil
companies

1974 Second Participation Agreement, Federal Government increases equity to 55%

Table 1...
1975 DPR upgraded to Ministry of Petroleum Resources
1977 NNPC was established by the Government
1979 Third participation Agreement; NNPC increases equity to 60%, Fourth Participation
Agreement; BP‟s shareholding nationalized, leaving NNPC with 80% equity and shell
20% in the joint venture
1984 The Agreement consolidates NNPC/ Shell joint venture
1989 Fifth participation; (NNPC=60%, shell, 30%, Elf=5%, Agip=5%
1993 Production Sharing Contract signed –SNEPCO/ Sixth Participation Agreement
(NNPC=55%, Shell=30%, Elf=10%, Agip=5%)
1995 SNEPCO starts drilling first exploration well/ NLNG‟s Final Investment Decision taken
1999 NLNG‟s first shipment of Gas out of Bonny Terminal
2000 NPDC/NAOC Service Contract signed
2002 A New PSCs agreement signed/ Liberalisation of the downstream sector/NNPC
commenced a retail scheme
Source: Nigeria Oil and Gas Forum, 2013
Overview of Marginal Fields’ Development in Nigeria

Marginal fields refer to discoveries which have not been exploited for long, due to one or more
of the following factors:
i. Very small sizes of reserves/pool to the extent of not being economically viable.
ii. Lack of infrastructure in the vicinities.
iii. Prohibitive development costs, fiscal levies and technological constraints.
However, should technical or economic condition change; such fields may become commercial
fields.
Marginal Field was defined as, any oil discovery whose production would, for whatever
reasons fail to match the desired or established rates-of-return of the leaseholder(Egbogah
,2011). Based on the data gotten from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) on
oil and gas activities for the year 2015the marginal fields‟ operators produced 23.3 million
barrels of crude oil, indicating a daily average of 63,812 barrels in 2015. This is against a total of
773.5 million barrels produced by all the operations in the sector in the year 2015 (Figure 2).
This translates to an average daily crude oil production of 2,119,064 barrels, showing that the
marginal fields‟ operators are yet to make a worthy impact on Nigeria‟s petroleum sector (NNPC
Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2015), (See Figure 2 for illustration). This simply indicates that
marginal fields‟ still has a total reserve of about 2.2 billion STOIP.

950 25
900
20
850
15
Million Barrels
800
Million Barrels
10
750
5
700
650 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total crude oil Production Marginal Fields' Production
Figure 2: Historical Trends of Total Crude Oil Production and

Marginal Fields Production in Nigeria (2005-2015)
Source: NNPC Statistical Annual Bulletin, 2015
LITERATURE REVIEW
Overview of Marginal Fields’ Development
Goldsmith (1995) examined the analysis of the economic effects of new and small marginal oil
fields in Alaska covering a twenty year production life. The analysis was based on existing
information about the public sector and the economy combined with a hypothetical marginal oil
field. Some of the inputs used to develop the parameters for the analysis findings came from an
ongoing study of the Badam oil. The result of the study showed that revenues generated from

the marginal field exceeded the costs to state government in all cases except the low price, low
royalty and the low production case when they are equal. Of the five sources of revenues
identified, royalties, potential personal taxes and the pipeline effect contributed most to revenue
while the corporate income tax and statewide property tax had little contribution to revenue.
Therefore it was concluded that marginal oil field development in Alaska can generate jobs and
income for workers and increase the state‟s tax base and sales for Alaska businesses
Furthermore, Awady (2001) investigated marginal field development in the western
desert of Egypt. The development plan, reservoir faces, the use of suitable technology, and
economic indicators for small fields which were operated and managed by Agiba in the Qattara
Depression were analysed. The study showed that operating and capital costs were highly
reduced for the considered field. The research concluded that;
1. Development of Marginal Fields requires flexible and innovative management
approaches that involve:
i. Operations phasing.
ii. Flexibility in the development plan to accommodate changes.
iii. Suitable technology that suits the particular condition of the fields.
iv. Nearby fields should consider sharing of available facilities to improve the
economic worth of smaller reserves.
2. It is possible to develop fields with reserves less than 5million barrels in harsh conditions
in an economic manner
Ayodele and Frimpong (2005) carried out a detailed economic analysis to assess the feasibility
of a contractual agreement of a proposed marginal oil field in Nigeria. The economic analysis
involved cash flow modelling, project profitability analysis, project sensitivity analysis and risk
modelling. Results showed that investing in the development of Nigerian marginal oil fields is
worthwhile. The result also showed that the proposed agreement leads to a favourable Return
on Investment for all parties involved. The project‟s sensitivity analysis showed that if the
combined cost of seismic survey and signature bonus is increased beyond 10%, the project
becomes uneconomical. If the price of oil falls below US$18.07, the projects need to be re-
evaluated because the discounted payback period will exceed the expected project life. Risk
analysis showed that as NPV increases, so also the risk level associated with such NPV
increases too.
Akinpelu and Omole (2009) examined the economics of Marginal Field Development.
NNPC 2012 fiscal / regulatory terms were used to identify the most significant variables
impacting the economics. The production variable was treated as one of the main uncertain
variables in the probabilistic model because Nigerian Oil and Economic models are usually

production dominated. It was stated that the main reason why many marginal fields do not make
it into development stage in the budget allocation process is economic. Results showed that the
field decline rate and initial well productivities, Exploration and Development well costs have a
significant impact on marginal fields Economics. They recommended that future research
should not just limit the variables to production and the well costs variables. Other costs like
jackets and flow line investment, barge costs and operating costs should be included in the cost
management strategy.
Nischal et al. (2012) analysed the potential of offshore marginal fields in India. The Oil
and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), India, was considered as the case study. The ONGC had
more than 165 marginal fields with a total reserve of more than 297MMT. Most of the reserves
were far away from existing infrastructures. Development on a stand-alone basis could not be
considered because of their location at a great water depth or some even had insufficient
reserves. Several efforts and integration of advanced technologies and human resources to
make the fields economically feasible became abortive. This made the ONGC to monetise 53
fields while 69 other fields are still under various stages of monetisation. Nischal et al. (2012)
illustrated through case histories the approach of the offshore marginal fields‟ with specific
emphasis on Economic marginal fields grouping, CAPEX reduction through hired FPSO e.t.c.
Due to these initiatives, production is expected to peak at about 125,000bopd and gas
production will also peak at about 17Mm3/d in 2014-2015. Also, ONGC early monetisation made
its marginal field‟s oil production to rise to 26,000 barrels per day and gas production of about
4MMSCMD.
Adamu et al. (2013) provided a perspective on diversification, investment and resource
development on offshore marginal field in Nigeria. A number of parameters were employed to
carry out economic analysis for project profitability, cash flow modelling and sensitivity analysis.
The economic parameters employed include Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return
(IRR), Present Value Rate (PVR), Pay Back Period and Profit to Investment Ratio (PIR).
Probabilistically, the certainty of having a positive NPV and good IRR values far above the
hurdle rate for investment in Nigeria was achieved. The sensitivity analysis showed that oil price
and tax rate are key sensitive parameters in maximising profit. The result also indicated that the
development of offshore marginal fields in the Niger Delta of Nigeria is economically viable.
Ezemonye and Clement (2013) provided insight on the inherent risks, discussed their
implications and validation for their economic importance and implications of Marginal Fields in
Nigeria between 2010 and 2012. A survey approach involving the use of Principal Component
Analysis (PCA) was employed. They identified 53 risk variables. The PCA was successful in
helping to reduce the data to 12 risk clusters that are appropriate to Nigeria‟s marginal fields

namely: Kernel of risk concentration, comprising of 13 variables (e.g. Recovery rate, f inancial
and economic constraint operating costs of marginal fields, oilfield size, etc.), Socioeconomic
and techno- political risks (e.g. exchange rates, operational risks, interest rates), Reservoir
uncertainty risks (e.g. marginality of the reserves), Reservoir Voluminousity (e.g. formation stock
tank), Barriers (e.g. reservoir damage, obstruction of the International Oil Companies),
Operational and Chancified risks (e.g. logistics), Security and returns risks (e.g. spot market
price), Yield and operational risks (e.g. market demands), Well production management (e.g.
statistical prediction risk), Wildcat risks syndrome (e.g. dry hole) and Ancillary costs risk (e.g.
resources cost volatility). The authors confirmed that risk sneak about in uncertainty and if not
properly planned for will affect the profitability of the project therefore needs pre-emptive
measures.
Idigbe and Bello (2013) investigated the challenges that confront the local operators and
basic roles that will improve the contribution of Marginal fields in Nigeria towards value creation.
The paper presents the opportunities to sustain social and economic responsibilities. It was
gathered that the monetisation of natural gas assets and proper business engineering in the
marginal fields‟ will be best practices for value creation and also have a significant impact on the
sustainable operations of the fields. This will guarantee the success of the marginal field
initiative, specifically, in the growing of natural gas reserves, a key component for power
generation in Nigeria.
Adeogun and Iledare (2015) argued that the notion to develop marginal oilfields as a
means of increasing oil and gas reserves in Nigeria has not been well defined since inception.
The paper redefines the concept of marginal oilfields in terms of concrete and measurable
terms, keeping in consideration recoverable reserves, prevailing fiscal terms and economic
conditions. A comprehensive economic analysis was carried out. A deterministic model was
used to determine the profitability of the field and a stochastic model was used to analyse
possible scenarios as changes occur in certain input variables with the corresponding output.
Results showed that marginal fields are considered a worthwhile investment if adequate
incentives are granted by the government. For example, if a downward review of signature
bonus had little or no impact on the rate of return of investment while reduction in royalty and
petroleum profit tax has a positive impact on investment which will make investment in marginal
fields more rewarding for investors. Oil Price was considered to be the major driver of the
profitability of the project.
Ashore (2015) addressed the economics of investment matrix for marginal fields‟
development in Nigeria. The marginal field considered in the study had a negative NPV due to
fall in oil price as the field was producing from a new facility. But results show a positive NPV

when produced from an already existing field. The result also showed that operating and capital
expenditure were too high for the marginal field and so reduced their profitability.
Ekeh and Asekomeh (2015) carried out an optimality test on an onshore and offshore
marginal field development financing arrangements in Nigeria. Because of the financial
challenges faced by many Marginal field operators, some of them resorted to partner with some
foreign investors to carry their share of development costs. The discounted cash flow was used
to analyse the economic viability of the marginal fields. Four different scenarios were
considered; Marginal fields‟ sole risk, Foreign Partner sole risk, joint venture without the foreign
partner carrying the development cost and joint venture with the foreign venture carrying part of
the development cost. Empirical results appear to imply that marginal fields‟ operators are better
off if they can contribute their share of the development costs by sourcing for funds domestically
than when they are carried fully by a foreign partner. The NPV analysis confirmed that carrying
of interest favours the foreign partners over the marginal fields in a joint venture arrangement. In
addition, oil price and petroleum profit tax are considered to have the greatest impact on the
NPV in both models.
Xochipa and Galicia (2015) presented a business case that can compete for investments
to meet the requirements of profitability and contribute to the goal of producing the project. The
study used a two stage methodology. The first stage was used to consider the individual
assessment of the fields‟. While the second stage was the search for alliance to review
opportunities for production called MEAPTECH meaning „Methodology for investment projects
applying technical, finance and business levers. Business cases for three different fields in the
Gulf of Mexico were identified and improved with attractive capital efficiency. From the three
fields, CrudoLigero Marino project has competitive economic indicators to request financial
resources and initiate the development of the other fields.
Akinwale and Akinbami (2016) carried out the economic evaluation of Marginal oil fields
using financial simulation. Fiscal regime and economic factors that could be hindering oil field
development among the indigenous oil firms were considered in their analysis. Result showed
that marginal oil field‟s project is viable with post-tax NPV. Petroleum Profit Tax, Royalty and
crude oil price have more impact on the NPV. It was recommended that a periodic assessment
of the fiscal regime and appropriate policy by the government to encourage the local players in
developing the marginal oil field.
Humphrey and Dosunmu (2016) examined the success factors underlying the
development of marginal field by Niger Delta Exploration and Production Company in Nigeria.
An extensive literature review on marginal oil fields was carried out in order to give explanation
of the success of marginal fields‟ development using Ogbelle as the case study. Humphry and

Dosunmu‟s study reveals three explanations that are relevant to the success story: The know-
how developed by the Niger Delta Exploration and production company through collaboration
with third parties, Risk management among which are the formation of partnership, and joint
venture and effective monetization of natural gas and the role of capital market in funds raising
which helps in the development of marginal field project. The critical success factors for Ogbelle
field development were identified as: Risk management through the formation of partnership,
effective utilisation of natural, collaboration with third party and the role of stock market was their
major conclusion.
Empirical and Methodological Review of Real Options Analysis in the Oil and Gas
Industry Using Binomial Lattice
Lund (1999) considered an offshore field development by using a case from the North Sea field
Heidrun in Norway. The author used a stochastic dynamic programming model for project
evaluation under uncertainty taking into account the uncertainty in oil price, reservoir size and
well rates. The study modelled the price as a geometric Brownian motion, and used a binomial
valuation model to find the optimal size of the production rig and investment timing. Results from
the case study revealed a significant value of flexibility, and clearly illustrated the shortcoming of
today‟s common evaluation methods. Particularly capacity, flexibility should not be neglected in
future development projects where uncertainty surrounding the reservoir properties is
substantial.
Abisoye (2007) investigated how Real Options analysis and decision analysis can
maximise the returns on a given project and minimise the losses. The analysis focused on the
option to change the scale of a project. The study used a sample and the Rother field as a case
study. The results of the Rother options analysis showed the optimal field development strategy
given the various reserves expectations. It was concluded that the use of Real Option analysis
can add more value to oil field developments compared to traditional methods of making
investment decisions. Since real options, add flexibility to projects, it can save upfront capital
expenditure.
Junior et al. (2007) presented the valuation of a hypothetical onshore mature oil field
using the real option approach. Their research was based on the new bidding rounds organised
by the Brazilian Petroleum Agency in 2005. A discrete- time approach and a binomial decision
tree with risk – neutral probabilities on Copeland and Antikarov (2001) were considered to
obtain the project value. The research pointed out how a project can be evaluated, considering
that the high volatility of the oil prices and the flexibilities that those projects present. This
includes improving the production through new well techniques; drilling more wells, postponing

operations and investments, and even divesture, among many others. The results show that the
traditional approach represented by the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation cannot alone be
used to help the decision makers make optimal decisions.
Acheampong (2010) carried out a real option analysis on the marginal oil field
development projects using a case of UKCS. The aim was to show the applicability and the
value of real option analysis in examining if the value of a sample oilfield in the UKS is different if
valued by the traditional DCF (NPV) methodology in comparison to real options approach. The
binomial lattice model was used because of the flexibility it provides in incorporating early
exercise. Results indicated that the traditional DCF was lagging behind that of the option values
for deferral and expansion option. But only a marginal change was exhibited by the abandonment
option with respect to the DCF value. Acheampong‟s findings implied that management will be
better off by considering various options in their field development decisions.
Numerous studies like the works of Ayodele and Frimpong (2003), Akinpelu and Omole
(2009), Adamu et al. (2013), Ezemonye and Clement (2013), Idigbe and Bello (2013)
AdeogunandIlledare (2015), Ashore (2015), Ekeh and Asekomeh (2015) and Akinwale and
Akinbanmi (2016) have analysed the investment decision in the Nigeria marginal oil fields
through economic evaluation using traditional models via the net present value, internal rate of
return, profitability index, payback period and probabilistic approach via Monte Carlo simulation.
Real Options Analysis (ROA) which serves as a step beyond Traditional Economic Approach
because of its ability to incorporate flexibility and option value has also been used by different
researchers like[Lund (1999), Abisoye (2007), Acheampong, (2010)]to evaluate investment
analysis in the oil and gas sector in United Kingdom, Norway and many more countries. Results
showed that investment shows higher return on investment when analysed with ROA compared
to when analysed with traditional approach.
However, the study already done on marginal fields have failed to consider investment in
oil and gas project in the analysis of investment decision in the marginal fields‟ development in
Nigeria. The researchers also failed to take into account all the uncertainties that might arise as
a result of Niger Delta Militants Insurgencies (NDMI) especially now that the country is losing a
whole lot of money to NMDI. Finally, no research has been done on investment analysis of
marginal fields‟ development in Nigeria using Real Options Approach. It is therefore necessary
to consider investment in the oil and gas industry especially now that the Federal Government is
working towards minimising gas flaring. This project will emulate the methodology used by some
researchers by using real option model because of its ability to incorporate flexibility and option
value, to analyse investment decision making in the Marginal Fields‟ Development in Nigeria
after incorporating all uncertainties that pose threat to the marginal fields‟ project especially

considering the fact that investment in marginal fields is irreversible and are prone to different
uncertainties. This will enable us to know whether investment in the Marginal oil and gas fields
is economically viable after experiencing various uncertainties.
METHODOLOGY
Model Building
The model for the traditional valuation includes the Net cash flow (NCF), Net Present Value
(NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period (PP) and Maximum Cash in Red (MCR).
In the probabilistic approach (incorporating risks and uncertainties), the algorithms that were
adopted in the economic analysis was in line with all Monte Carlo simulation processes. This
includes building a model, adding stochastic assumptions, running @RISK software. The model
described in this section captured the main risks and uncertainties present in oil & gas field
development projects in Nigeria.
Deterministic MODEL Formulation

This study adopted and modified the discounted cash flow model via NPV used by Awotiku (2011).
Net Present Value
The following is the formula for calculating NPV:
𝑘 𝑁𝐶𝐹𝑡
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = 𝑡=1 1+𝑟 𝑡 (1)
where,
NPV = Net Present Value
Net Cash Flow (𝑁𝐶𝐹𝑡 ) = Cash Inflow – Cash Out Flow (2)
Cash inflow = Gross Revenue
Cash outflow for a marginal fields‟ project = Royalty, Capital Expenditure, Operating
Expenditure, profit oil split to the government, Bonus, Tax, Other costs (NDDC, SDC e.t.c.)
𝑁𝐶𝐹𝑡 = 𝐺𝑅𝑡 − 𝑅𝑂𝑌𝑡 − 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐸𝑋𝑡 − 𝑂𝑃𝐸𝑋𝑡 − 𝐵𝑂𝑁𝑈𝑆𝑡 − 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝑡 − 𝑉𝐴𝑇𝑡 − 𝑃𝑂/𝐺𝑡 − 𝑂𝑇𝐻𝐸𝑅𝑡 (3)
A modification was done to include a variable (Militant Insurgency) which is considered a
pressing issue facing the oil and gas investment in Nigeria
𝑁𝐶𝐹𝑡 = 𝐺𝑅𝑡 − 𝑅𝑂𝑌𝑡 − 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐸𝑋𝑡 − 𝑂𝑃𝐸𝑋𝑡 − 𝐵𝑂𝑁𝑈𝑆𝑡 − 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝑡 − 𝑉𝐴𝑇𝑡 − 𝑃𝑂/𝐺𝑡 − 𝑂𝑇𝐻𝐸𝑅𝑡 − 𝑀𝐼𝑆𝑡
(4)
Where,
𝑀𝐼𝑆𝑡 = fn (Revenue lost as a result of annual shut down, cost of repairing/ replacing vandalised
pipeline for onshore and cost of replacing blown- up facilities for offshore and finally ransom
paid as a result of kidnap.

𝑁𝐶𝐹𝑡 = 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝐺𝑅𝑡 = 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝑅𝑂𝑌𝑡 = 𝑟𝑜𝑦𝑎𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐸𝑋𝑡 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝑂𝑃𝐸𝑋𝑡 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝐵𝑂𝑁𝑈𝑆𝑡 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝐵𝑜𝑛𝑢𝑠𝑃𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝑇𝐴𝑋𝑡 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑥𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝑉𝐴𝑇𝑡 = 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑𝑡𝑎𝑥𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝑃𝑂/𝐺𝑡 = 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑜𝑖𝑙𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑕𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝑂𝑇𝐻𝐸𝑅𝑡 = 𝑜𝑡𝑕𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑒. 𝑔. 𝑁𝐷𝐷𝐶, 𝑆𝐶𝐷, 𝐴𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
𝑀𝐼𝑆𝑡 = Militant Insurgency:
Components include the total cost incurred as a result of Militant insurgency. Three major
variables were captured here;
Offshore:
i. Revenue lost due to Annual shut down (days) as a result of blown up facilities. This
was captured by multiplying the number of shut down (days) by the oil price in those
days.
ii. Ransom paid as a result of kidnapping: This is the total amount of money paid as a
result of the kidnappings.
iii. The Cost of repairing or replacing the blown up facilities:- This is the total cost incurred
in repairing or replacing all the blown up facilities
Onshore:
i. Pipeline vandalisation: This includes the total cost incurred during the process of
repairing or replacing the pipeline vandalised through insurgency
ii. Kidnapping: The total amount of money paid to kidnappers in order to get the release
of the workers kidnapped.
iii. Revenue lost as a result of Annual shut down (days):- This is total revenue lost for the
period of shutting down production from the fields. This is as a result of vandalised
pipeline facilities.
r = hurdle rate or rate of return
t = time in years
k = total number of years in cash flow
Gross Revenue > Total investment cost = Positive NPV (profit oriented investment)
Gross Revenue < Total investment cost = Negative NPV (Investment will result in a loss)

Internal Rate of Return

Calculating IRR will be as follows:
𝑛 𝑁𝐶𝐹𝑡
𝑡=1 (1+𝐼𝑅𝑅)𝑡 =0 (5)
In equation 4.16, the net cash flow at time t is known, but IRR must be found from the above
equation as an unknown variable.
Based on this criterion, if the project ROR is more than the companies‟ hurdle rate or
interest rate of investment, then the project is considered economical and profitable, and if it is
less, then the project will be evaluated non-profitable. (Ladeinde, 2015)
Payback Period
The payback period, also referred to as the breakeven point is defined as the expected number
of years required for recovering the original investment. At this point, the cash inflow exactly
equals the cash outflow. This yardstick is used along with at least one other measure of
profitability since it does not provide a meaningful decision criterion by itself.
When related to the useful economic life of an investment, the payback figure is used as
an indication of whether the investment is repaid within the economic life. The discounted
payback period accounts for the time value of money and it provide information on how long
funds are tied up. Also future expected cash flows are generally believed to be riskier than near-
term cash flows.(Main, 2010).
Maximum Cash in Red (MCR)

Maximum Cash in Red is the maximum cumulative cash outlay in the project life cycle. It is also
known as maximum cash flow exposure
Model Assumptions
In the evaluation of our deterministic model, many factors were put into consideration. Various
factors were considered especially those that has never been captured by existing models.
Assumptions made were based on information and data gotten from the Nigeria National
Petroleum Corporation, Annual reports from Onshore and offshore already producing fields,
Literatures, Federal Inland Revenue, U.S Energy Information Administration. Main factors
considered include: capital expenditures, operational expenditures, oil and gas price, Royalty
rate, Petroleum profit tax, militant insurgency. Based on this information a base case scenario
was designed (See table 2).

Table 2: Model Assumptions

Name value
Discount rate 12.5%
Escalation Rate 3%
CA 20% (Ist 4 years, 19% 5th year)
ITA 20%of Tangible CAPEX
Oil price $40/ BBL
Gas price $3.50/MSCF
Oil OPEX 10% of revenue
Gas OPEX 10% of revenue
Costs recoverable 80% of revenue
Gas royalty rate 7% onshore, 5% offshore
SDC levy 1% of gross revenue
NDDC levy 3% of total cost incurred
Educational tax 2% of assessable profit
PPT 65.75% of taxable income
CITA 30% of taxable income
Estimated ransom paid for both Offshore: $5million per year
Onshore: $5million per year
Annual shut down for oil investment only Offshore: 40days per year
Onshore: 50 days per year
Annual shut down for oil and gas investment Offshore: 50 days per year
Onshore: 70 days in a year
Facilities replacement cost for oil investment only Offshore: 4% of tangible CAPEX
Onshore: 2% of tangible CAPEX
Facilities replacement cost for oil and gas Offshore: 5% of tangible CAPEX
investment Onshore: 3% of tangible CAPEX
Total Capex for oil investment only Offshore:$479 million dollars

Onshore:$336 million dollars
Total Capex for oil and gas investment Offshore: $801 million
Onshore:$ 621million
Timing
Investment year 2013
First oil 2016
Production Period 15 Years

Binomial Lattice
The binomial lattice model has the advantage of being flexible and it‟s therefore suitable for real
options valuation since it can be adjusted to the specific conditions of a project.
Assumptions in Binomial Option Pricing Model

One simplifying assumption that the Binomial Option Pricing Model makes is that over a certain
time period, the underlying asset price can only do one of two things: go up, or go down
In detail, the assumptions in the binomial option pricing model are as follows:
1. There are only two possible prices for the underlying asset on the next day.
2. The two possible prices are the up-price and down-price
3. The underlying asset does not pay any dividends
4. The rate of interest (r) is constant throughout the life of the option
5. Markets are frictionless i.e. there are no taxes and no transaction cost
6. Investors are risk neutral, i.e. investors are indifferent towards risk (Simpli learn, 2013)
Six-Step framework for the resolution of a valuation problem using the binomial
technique
Calculating
the option
values at each
Calculating node by
Framing the the option backward
application paramenters induction
Identifying Building the Analysing the

the input binomial result
parameters lattice tree
and
calculating
the asset
values at each
node
Figure 3: Six-Step framework

Framing the application:

Framing a real option is more difficult than framing a financial option. It involves describing the
problem in trouble-free words and pictures, identifying the option, and stating clearly the
contingent decision and the decision rule. These must be identified very clearly. Keeping the
problem simple and making it more understanding will help the communication of the results
more efficiently so as to get upper management„s buy-in.
Identifying the input parameters:

The basic input parameters for the binomial method to value any type of option include the
underlying asset value, strike price, option life, volatility factor, risk- free interest rate, and time
increments to be used in the binomial tree.
i. Underlying Asset Value (S0): The value of the underlying security at time zero
represents the underlying asset value. With real options, however, the asset value is
estimated from the cash flows.
ii. Risk free interest rate: This is the theoretical rate of return of an investment with no risk
of financial loss.
𝑟𝑓 = 𝐼𝑛 1 + 𝑟𝑑 (6)
Where, 𝑟𝑓 and 𝑟𝑑 are the continuously and discretely compounded risk-free rates, respectively
iii. Exercised price: The price at which a specific derivative contract can be exercised. A
strike price is mostly used to describe stock and index options, in which strike prices are
fixed in the contract. For call options, the strike price is where the security can be bought
(up to the expiration date), while for put options the strike price is the price at which
shares can be sold.
iv. Volatility factor (σ): Volatility is an important input variable that can have a significant
impact on the option value and is probably the most difficult variable to estimate for real
options problems. It represents a measure of the variability of the total value of the
underlying asset over its lifetime, as the uncertainty associated with the cash flows that
comprise the underlying asset value. The volatility factor σ used in the option models,
however, is the volatility of the rates of return, which is measured as the standard
deviation of the natural logarithm of cash flows returns, which are the ratios of a certain
time period cash flow into the preceding one.
𝑇2
𝜎 𝑇2 = 𝜎 𝑇1 ∗ 𝑇1
(7)

Calculating the Option Parameters:

The option parameters are intermediates to the final option value calculations and are
calculated from the input variables. These are the up (u) and down (d) factors and the risk-
neutral probability (p) required for the binomial solution.
A Simple approach to the solution of binomial lattices is the risk-neutral probability
method, which assumes a risk-free rate for discounted cash flows throughout the lattice. This
method applies to every kind of option and the calculations involved are easy once you
determine the problem parameters; results are significant for the most common cases and
quickly obtainable, making this an efficient method for Real Options Analysis solutions. The up
and down factors, u and d, are a function of the volatility of the underlying asset and can be
described as follows:
𝑢 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝜎 𝛿𝑡) (8)
𝑑 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝜎 𝛿𝑡 = 1 𝑢 (9)
Where σ is the volatility (%) represented by the standard deviation of the natural logarithm of the
underlying free cash flow returns, and δt is the time associated with each time step of the
binomial tree. The risk-neutral probability, p, is defined as follows:
exp (𝑟𝛿𝑡 )−𝑑
p= 𝑢 −𝑑
(10)
Where, r is the risk-free rate.
Building the Binomial Tree and Calculating the Asset Values at Each Node of the Tree:
The binomial tree is built based on the number of time increments selected. The underlying
asset value at each node of the tree is calculated starting with Stock Price or Option Value at
time zero at the left end of the tree and moving toward the right by using the up and down
factors.

Calculating the Option Values at Each Node of the Tree by Backward Induction:
Starting at the far right side of the binomial tree, the decision rule is applied at each node and
the optimum decision selected. The option value is identified as the asset value that reflects the
optimum decision. Moving toward the left of the tree, the option values at each node are
calculated by folding back the option values from the successor nodes by discounting them by a
risk-free rate and using the risk-neutral probability factor. This process is continued until you
reach the far left end of the tree, which reflects the option value of the project. Whereas asset
valuation shows the value of the underlying asset at each node without accounting for
management decision, the option valuation step identifies the asset value that reflects
management„s optimal decision at that node.
Analysing the Results:

After the option value has been calculated, the appropriate first step is to compare the net
present value derived from the Discounted Cash Flow method with Real Options Analysis and
evaluate the value added as a result of the flexibility created by the option(s). In order to get a
better perspective on the option solution, several analyses can be performed on the sensitivity
of the option value to input parameter variations, or to different management decisions. To gain
more information, option value changes are estimated in particular situations, such as the
presence of jumps or leaks, private risk, multiple sources of uncertainty, staged options chains
and so on.
Sources of Data
Primary Data
An in-depth interview was conducted on some officials, the deputy director of the Marginal fields
bidding process at the Department of Petroleum Resources, (DPR), already producing marginal
fields staffs, in order to get information and data which was used to identify the risk and
uncertainty involved in the marginal fields‟ development.
Secondary Data
The Secondary data used in this study were obtained from the Department of Petroleum
Resources (DPR), Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Annual Statistical Bulletin, U.S
Energy Information Administration, published articles from journals and consultant reports,
Annual and semi-annual reports of some performing marginal field operators.

EVALUATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

Deterministic Result
A spreadsheet-based deterministic economic model was employed in the evaluation of the
marginal oil and gas field projects to evaluate the investment opportunity through single point
analysis. Cash flow, profitability and scenario analysis were carried out.
Cash Flow Analysis
OFFSHORE Net Cash Flow ONSHORE Net Cash Flow

Chart Chart
400.00 200.00
350.00 150.00
300.00
NCF ($ millions)
250.00 100.00
200.00 50.00
NCF ($ millions)
150.00 0.00
100.00 (50.00)
2023
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2025
2027
2029
50.00 (100.00)
0.00 (150.00)
(50.00) (200.00)
2019
2013
2015
2017
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
(100.00) (250.00)
(150.00) (300.00)
(200.00) (350.00)
(250.00) Years
(300.00)
(350.00)
(400.00)
(450.00) NCF ($M)
Years
Figure 4: OFFSHORE and ONSHORE NCF CHART
Figure 4 above show the project net cash flow, which is forecasted to be positive for most of the
years (2017-2030). There was a negative cash flow before 2017 for both fields because those
years are the construction period of the fields and where capital is mostly invested, but after that
period, net cash flow will be positive throughout the oil and gas producing periods.
% SHARE OF CASHFLOW % SHARE OF CASHFLOW

COMPONENTS WITHOUT
COMPONENTS WITH INSURGENCY
INSURGENCY NCF Capex
NCF Capex
Insurgen 10% 5% Opex
Famour 12% 6% OPEX 9%
cy
Take 10%
14%
7%
Famour's
Take
6%
G/Take G/Take
65% 56%
Figure 5: Percent Share of Cash Flow of offshore projects

(Oil Investment only)

COMPONENTS COMPONENTS WITH INSURGENCY
NCF Capex NCF Capex
Famour 15% 12% 12% 10%
OPEX Insurgenc Opex
Take
5% 11% y 9%
18%
Famour's
Take
4%
G/Take G/Take
57% 47%
Figure 6: Percent share of Cash flow of onshore projects (oil investment only)

Capex NCF Capex
NCF
9% 12% 7% Opex
Famour 15% OPEX
Insurgenc 9%
Take 10%
6% y
18%
Famour's
Take
5% G/Take
G/Take 49%
60%
Figure 7: Percent share of Cash flow of offshore project (oil and gas investment)

NCF Capex
Capex 16% 11%
NCF 15% Opex
20% 9%
Famour OPEX
Take 12%
3%
Insurgenc
y
24%
Famour's G/Take
G/Take 38%
Take
50%
2%
Figure 8: Percent share of Cash flow of onshore project without Insurgencies

(oil and gas investment)

Figures 5 & 6 show the Cash flow components of the onshore and offshore investment for oil
project only. While Figures 7& 8 show cash flow components of the offshore and onshore
investment for oil and gas projects. The results show that the total investor take (Net cash flow
i.e. the investor share of profit plus the CAPEX and OPEX, total famour take (royalty) and total
government take (Government share of profit + tax and Royalty) without experiencing militant
insurgency is higher than when insurgency is experienced in the marginal fields‟ sector. This
indicates that when the sector experiences vandalisation, blown up of facilities, kidnap, it tends
to affect the percent share of profit.
Table 3: Offshore Profitability Results

Indicator Values of oil investment only
NCF $1,044.09 Million
NPV $200.16 Million
IRR 21.5%
Payback period 5 Years
MCR -262.23
PV of Free Cash Flow $634.67
Table 4: Onshore Profitability Results

Indicator Values of oil investment Only
NCF $423.18 Million
NPV $23.76 Million
IRR 14%
Payback period 6 years
MCR -188.55
PV of Free Cash Flow $328.21
The Analysis returned a positive NPV after tax at a discount value of 12.5% for investing in oil
project only
Sensitivity Analysis
Due to the uncertainties which have been identified, it is assumed that some of the input factors
would likely affect the profitability of the onshore and offshore marginal fields. These
uncertainties manifest in Discount rates, oil and gas prices, investment cost, etc. Therefore, to
capture these uncertainties, variables used in the deterministic model are considered to behave
stochastically which then result in a probabilistic model.

Distribution Assumptions
This signifies the probability distribution assumption made for each variable used in the
evaluation of the marginal fields. Triangular distribution was used for some of the variables
because it best estimates the distribution using the minimum, maximum and the most likely
values. Uniform distribution was used for the remaining variables because it best estimates the
distribution using equal probability between the minimum and maximum values.
For the offshore project, CAPEX was assumed to have a triangular distribution because
it ranges from $550 million to $950 million with a most likely value of $836.4 million while for the
onshore, it ranges from $400 million to $800 million with a most likeliest value of $650 million
according to information from already producing marginal fields. Oil OPEX for both offshore and
onshore assumed a triangular distribution with a most likely value of 10 and a minimum and
maximum value of 48 and 20 percent of the revenue respectively for both fields based on
information from already producing marginal fields. Similar assumption was made for gas opex
with 5, 10 and 15% of revenue as the minimum, most likeliest and the maximum values
respectively for both fields this is also based on information from already producing marginal
fields. The Discount rate is also assumed to have the same distribution with most likeliest value
of 12.5% and a maximum and minimum value of 15% and 10% respectively for both offshore
and onshore fields (information from already producing marginal fields). Petroleum profit tax for
both fields is assumed from Federal Inland revenue service to be 50%, 65.75% and 85% for
minimum, likeliest and maximum values. Table 4 summarises the distribution assumption of the
offshore and onshore projects.
Table 4: Distribution assumptions for offshore and onshore projects

Distribution Assumption for Offshore Project Distribution Assumptions for Onshore Projects Distribution
parameters
parameters
Distribution
Maximum
Maximum
Minimum
Minimum
Likeliest
Likeliest
Input
Input
type
type
Capex ($M) 550 836.4 950 Triangular Capex ($M) 400 650 800 Triangular
distribution distribution
Oil Opex (% 8 10 20 Triangular Oil Opex (% 8 10 20 Triangular
of revenue) distribution of revenue) distribution
Gas Opex 5 10 15 Triangular Gas Opex 5 10 15 Triangular
(% of distribution (% of distribution
Revenue) revenue)

Discount 10 12.5 15 Triangular Discount 10 12.5 15 Triangular

Table 4...
Rate (%) distribution Rate (%) distribution
PPT Rate 50 65.75 85 Triangular PPT Rate 50 65.75 85 Triangular
(%) Distribution (%) Distribution
Gas Price 3.00 3.50 7.00 Uniform Gas Price 3.00 3.50 7.00 Uniform
($/Mscf) distribution ($/Mscf) distribution
Oil Price 30 40 70 Uniform Oil Price 30 40 70 Uniform
($/bbl) Distribution ($/bbl) Distribution
Ransom 1 5 10 Uniform Ransom 1 5 10 Uniform
Paid ($M) Distribution Paid ($M) Distribution
Annual 20 50 100 Uniform Annual 30 70 120 Uniform
Shutdown Distribution Shutdown Distribution
(days/year) (days/ year)
Replacement 2 5 10 Triangular Replacement .5 3 6 Triangular
Cost (% of Distribution Cost (% of Distribution
Tang. Capex) Tang. Capex)
Sensitivity Analysis Results

Figures 9-14 show the sensitivity analysis of different variables on the key profitability indicators
reviewed in this study (NPV, IRR and Payback Period). The sensitivity analysis showed the
effect of changes in the input parameters.
NPV Analysis
Offshore Analysis:
Figure 9 shows that the input variables considered have either positive or negative effect on the
NPV. The oil and gas prices have a positive impact on NPV, meaning an increase (decrease) in
these variables will cause an increase (decrease) in the NPV. While the remaining variables,
Discount rate, Annual shut down(days), PPT rate, Total Capex, Replacement Cost, Estimated
Ransom paid, Oil OPEX, Gas OPEX have negative impact on the NPV. The Oil price was
considered the most sensitive variable with a positive impact of 71%, this indicates that an
increase (decrease) in the oil price will cause a 71% increase (decrease) on the NPV. This
means that a slightest fluctuation on the oil price will have a significant effect on the net present
value. This is followed by the Discount rate up to oil OPEX, which had a negative impact on the
NPV. This simply indicates that an increase in the variables will cause a decrease in NPV and
vice versa.

Onshore Analysis:
For the onshore project (Figure 10), the gas and oil price also had a positive impact on the NPV. In
the case of the onshore, the gas price was the most sensitive on the NPV with a positive impact of
53% impact. This indicates that an increase (decrease) in the gas price will cause a 53% increase
(decrease) in the NPV. This simply means gas price is very significant in the onshore oil and gas
project. This is followed by the oil price with 51%, then the discount rate down to the oil OPEX.
In Summary, both the offshore and onshore showed that both gas and oil price have a
positive relationship with the NPV. This means that an increase (decrease) in these variables
will increase (decrease) the profitability of the investment. Other variables had a negative
relationship on the NPV.
NPV (Million)
Regression Coefficients
Oil Price 0.71

Discount Rate -0.40
Annual Shutdown (days) -0.34
Gas Price 0.33
PPT Rate -0.26
Total Capex -0.21
Replacement cost -0.06
Estimated Ransom Paid -0.02
Gas Opex -0.02
Oil Opex -0.01
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8

0.6
Coefficient Value
Figure 9. NPV sensitivity chart (Offshore)
NPV ($M)
Gas Price 0.53

Oil Price 0.51
Discount Rate -0.39
Total Capex -0.36
PPT Rate -0.07
Replacement Cost -0.05
Gas Opex -0.03
Oil Opex -0.01
-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Coefficient Value
Figure 10. NPV sensitivity chart (Onshore)
Internal Rate of Return Analysis

Offshore:
According to Figure 11, the oil price still remains the most sensitive with 72%, followed by total
CAPEX with a negative impact of 47%. Only oil price and gas price has a positive impact on
IRR. All others have a negative impact. Meaning an increase in these remaining variables (total
CAPEX, annual shut down, PPT rate, etc.) makes the project less profitable while an increase in
the oil/ gas price will give a very good rate of return.
Onshore:
In the Onshore (Figure 12), the most sensitive was total CAPEX with a negative relationship of
57%, followed by oil price and gas price, then annual shutdown. Oil OPEX has the least effect
on the IRR. Only oil and gas price shows a positive effect on IRR. That is, the higher the oil
price and gas price the higher the internal rate of return and vice versa. All other variables have
a negative impact on the IRR, meaning, the higher the input variable, the lower the internal rate
of return and vice versa.
In summary, the result here still conforms to the NPV sensitivity analysis. Both oil price
and gas price have a positive relationship with the IRR. That is an increase (decrease) will
increase (decrease) the profitability of our project.
IRR
Oil Price 0.72

Total Capex -0.47
Gas Price 0.29
PPT Rate -0.20
Replacement cost -0.07
Gas Opex -0.01
Oil Opex 0.00
-0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.6

-0.6 0.0 0.4 0.8
Coefficient Value
Figure 11: IRR sensitivity graph (offshore)

IRR
Total Capex -0.57

Oil Price 0.51
Gas Price 0.49
Replacement Cost -0.06
PPT Rate -0.06

Gas Opex -0.03
Oil Opex -0.01
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Coefficient Value
Figure 12: IRR sensitivity graph (Onshore)
Payback Period Analysis

Offshore Analysis:
Figure 13, indicates that the payback period showed a different scenario from the IRR and NPV
sensitivity analysis. Both oil and gas price have negative impact on the payback period. This
means that the decrease in the price of oil and gas will increase our payback period and vice
versa. All other variables have a positive relationship. This means that an increase in the
variables will increase the payback period and vice versa. It will as well be noted that the
petroleum profit task has no impact on the payback period.
Onshore Analysis:
Also, considering the onshore investment (Figure 14), the payback period also shows a different
scenario from the IRR and NPV analysis. The oil and gas price has a negative impact on the
payback period. Meaning that, the increase in the price of oil will decrease the payback period
and vice versa. All other variables have a positive impact.
In summary, for the offshore project, the oil price was discovered to be the most
sensitivity analysis on NPV, IRR and our payback period with little or high change will affect the
profitability of the project. While for our onshore project, the Total CAPEX had the most
sensitivity on the NPV and IRR. But considering the payback period, the oil price has the most
sensitivity impact.

It will also be noted that the same variables portray similar behaviour and impact on the
payback period for both fields.
Payback Period (Years)

Oil Price -0.72

Total Capex 0.33
Annual Shutdown (days) 0.24
Gas Price -0.14

Replacement cost 0.09
Oil Opex 0.06

Gas Opex 0.02
Estimated Ransom Paid 0.01
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
Coefficient Value
Figure 13: Payback sensitivity chart (Offshore)
Payback Period (Years)

Oil Price -0.58

Total Capex 0.49
Annual Shutdown (years) 0.37
Gas Price -0.34
Facilities replacement 0.10
Oil Opex 0.05
Gas Opex 0.05
Estimated Ransom Paid 0.04
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Coefficient Value
Figure 14: Payback sensitivity chart (onshore)
Real Options Analysis

The real option analysis presented four main scenarios namely Deferral Option (considering oil
investment only), Abandonment option with oil investment only, Expansion Option (considering
an expansion from oil investment only to gas investment) and finally the Abandonment option
with oil & gas investment. All the scenarios were confirmed using the black –Scholes model.
This methodology showed how a project such as this can be evaluated, considering the
high volatility of the oil prices, militant insurgencies amongst others. It also presented the
flexibilities that can be considered in this project due to these uncertainties. Such flexibilities
include:
a. Deferral Option: A right, but not an obligation to invest in oil project now, but
delay to a later date when the project faces little or no uncertainty (like decrease
in oil price, increase in militant insurgencies e. t. c). The onshore and offshore
investment showed an additional value of $173 million and $396 million added
value, respectively if the options were delayed without losing out.
b. Abandonment option: A right, but not an obligation to abandon a project when the
market is no longer favourable. For the onshore and offshore marginal oil field
project, results showed additional benefits of $3million dollars offshore and
$2million onshore for the NPV. Pascal triangle confirms a project success rate of
99%.
c. Expansion Option: This is simply the right, but not the obligation to increase
investment by utilising all available resources within the field when the market is
favourable for a higher Rate of Return (ROR). For this study an expansion of
investing in a gas project was considered. This decision presented an increase in
the ROR. For the offshore and onshore investment, a total of $606million and
$342million was realised after an additional investment of $320million and
$372million respectively. Comparing this result with the Traditional Approach
(TA) represented by the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation, justifies that
cannot TA alone cannot be used to help the decision makers make optimal
decisions.
Tables 5 & 6 and Figures 15 & 16 presents a brief summary of real option results with charts
and tables.
Table 5: Expanded NPV (Offshore)

BLACK BINOMIAL LATTICE Real OPTION (Expanded NPV)

SCHOLES
Deferral option of oil $395 million $396 million 396+200= $596 million
project
Abandonment option of $4 million $3 million 3+200= $203 million

oil project
Expansion Option $609 million $606 million 606+200= $806 million

Note: Expanded NPV= Base NPV + Option Value
OFFSHORE INVESTMENT
400
366
350
300
Values( $million)
250
197
200
Base NPV
150
Real Options
100
50 24 24 26 24
0
Deferal Option Abandonment Expansion Option
Option
Figure 15: Comparing Base Case NPV with Real Option value
Table 6: Real Option Analysis values (Expanded NPV)

BLACK & BINOMIAL LATTICE REAL OPTION (Expanded
SCHOLES NPV)
Deferral Option 174 $173 million 173+24= $197 million
Without Gas
Abandonment Option 1 $2 million 2+24=$26 million

Expansion Option $344 million $342 million 342+24= $366 million
Note: Expanded option=Base NPV+ Option value

ONSHORE INVESTMENT
400 366
350
300
Values( $million) 250
197
200
Base NPV
150
Real Options
100
50 24 24 26 24
0
Deferal Option Abandonment Expansion Option
Option
Figure 16: Comparing Base case NPV with Real Option
SUMMARY
RESEARCH RESEARCH METHODOLOGY RESULT

QUESTIONS OBJECTIVES
1 In the midst of To develop a Discounted cash The Analysis returned a positive
various valuation model for flow via NPV, IRR NPV after tax for both fields‟. The
uncertainties like NPV by including and PP decision rule is to accept all
oil price volatility, Militant Insurgencies projects with positive NPV. This
militant as key uncertainty means that the project is
insurgency, variables affecting the economically viable. The result
amongst others, marginal oil and gas also shows that the Net cash
can Marginal fields flow, Famour and Government
Fields‟ project be take without Militant Insurgency is
profitable in higher than when Insurgency is
Nigeria? experienced in the oil and gas
sector. This indicates that when
the sector experiences
vandalisation, blown up of
facilities, kidnap, it tends to affect
the cash flow negatively.
2 What are the key Evaluate the effect of Sensitivity Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis;
uncertainty risks and Tornado and Spider Oil and Gas price has a positive
variables that can uncertainties on the Chart impact on NPV
affect the profitability of the Total Capex, Discount rates, PPT
profitability of the marginal fields rate, Oil and gas OPEX, annual
marginal fields‟ shut down (days) replacement
project? cost, have a negative effect on
the profitability indices

3 How can the To show the Estimate the Expanded NPV(Base case NPV +
applicability of applicability of real embedded project option value)
ROA be an active options analysis in options such as
management tool some selected Deferral option, Deferral Option
in deciding when marginal fields‟ in Expansion option The onshore and offshore
to defer, abandon Nigeria via Options to and Abandonment investment showed an additional
or expand a delay, abandon or option using value of $173 million and $396
project in the midst expand at any time Binomial Lattice & million added value, respectively
of various during the Crosschecked using if the options were delayed
uncertainties? relinquishment the Black and without losing out.
requirement period. Scholes
Abandonment Option without gas
For the onshore and offshore
marginal oil field project, results
showed additional benefits of
$3million offshore and $2million
onshore for the expanded NPV.
Pascal triangle confirms a project
success rate of 99%.
Expansion Option
For the offshore and onshore
investment, a total of $606million
and $342million was realised
after an additional investment of
$320million and $372million
respectively.
Conclusion
Results showed that the
traditional DCF was lagging
behind that of the option values
for deferral and expansion option.
But only a marginal change was
exhibited by the abandonment
option with respect to the DCF
value
CONCLUSION
The main conclusion is that the onshore and offshore marginal fields‟ are economically viable
and will give better returns on investment under real option consideration. Secondly, decision is
more guided using the real options approach than using the traditional approach. This research
also ascertained that gas investment is an added advantage if efficiently utilized. That is, it will
increase the profit realised from the fields. With the help of the range of the economic and

flexibility indices shown in the results obtained, it is a project that investors will be willing to
undertake.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The Oil and Gas sector constitutes the bulk of Nigeria revenue (about N1.94 trillion to GDP in
2015) and takes the largest share in export. Any form of shutdown experienced in this sector will
have a negative effect on both the economy and the investors. The outcome of this research
indicates that;
i. Marginal fields (MFs) are economically sensitive, and investments in them are very
challenging.
ii. Annual shutdown of production due to the militant insurgency has the greatest impact
among the insurgency variables captured in this research therefore affects marginal oil
and gas fields‟ development.
iii. The study also ascertained that gas investment is an added advantage when considered
as an investment by the marginal fields‟ operators.
iv. Only 12 marginal fields have started production since its initiation in 2003. This is as a
result of financial and technical incompetence of the marginal fields‟ investors
This research thus recommends that;
i. Marginal fields‟ investors should emulate the use of real options approach model as an
economic evaluation technique because decision is more guided than using the
traditional financial model.
ii. Marginal fields‟ investors should involve more in its corporate social responsibilities by
involving the participation of the local indigenes simply because Niger Delta citizens are
facing a lot of sufferings; no good roads, high unemployment rate, inadequate portable
drinking water, no farmland to farm on due to oil spillage. This is the reason why they are
always involved in pipeline vandalisation, kidnappings and blowing up of oil and gas
facilities. The Federal Government should also involve in more peaceful dialogue with
the indigenes of Niger Delta and its environs. This will reduce the act of militant
insurgency.
iii. The Federal Government should provide Gas infrastructures and increase gas flaring
penalty in order to enable Marginal Fields‟ investors diversify because majority of the
marginal oil fields‟ still flare close to half of the gas produced due to inadequate provision
of infrastructures and regulations by the government. This has made the gas industry
frustrated and almost abandoned over the years. This led to Nigeria losing a total of 31.8
billion Naira to gas flaring in the month of February, 2014 (Social Development

Integrated centre) (see http;//thenationonlineng.net/Nigeria-loses-n31-8b-to-gas-flaring/).

Many countries around the world have taken into considerations the benefits or
advantages of utilising the gas instead of flaring. These include conversion into domestic
cooking gas, liquefied natural gas, plastic production and many. So revenue can still be
generated from sales of gas which make investment in this sector worthwhile.
iv. The allocation of oil blocks/ marginal fields‟ by the Federal Government should be
transparent and granted to financially and technically qualified investors.
LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER STUDIES

This study was able to capture all cost incurred as a result of Niger Delta militant insurgencies
that are posing threat to Marginal Fields‟ development. As at the time of undergoing this study,
only three variables that can be quantified were captured. Further study could be done with the
model and knowledge provided by this research by incorporating any Niger Delta militant
insurgency variable that might incur cost in the future. This research might basically be used as
a starting point for further application of real options analysis for the marginal oil and gas assets.
The process of real options analysis illustrated can be useful for any onshore and offshore
marginal field companies when evaluating future projects.
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International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS OF MARGINAL FIELDS’ DEVELOPMENT

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Justification for the Study

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Figure 1: Project value with and without real options

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BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Table 1 Snapshot of the History of Oil& Gas Exploration in Nigeria

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1974 Second Participation Agreement, Federal Government increases equity to 55%

Overview of Marginal Fields’ Development in Nigeria

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Total crude oil Production Marginal Fields' Production

Figure 2: Historical Trends of Total Crude Oil Production and

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Deterministic MODEL Formulation

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Internal Rate of Return

Maximum Cash in Red (MCR)

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Table 2: Model Assumptions

Total Capex for oil investment only Offshore:$479 million dollars

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Assumptions in Binomial Option Pricing Model

Identifying Building the Analysing the

Figure 3: Six-Step framework

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Framing the application:

Identifying the input parameters:

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Calculating the Option Parameters:

Where, r is the risk-free rate.

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Analysing the Results:

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EVALUATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

Cash Flow Analysis

OFFSHORE Net Cash Flow ONSHORE Net Cash Flow

Figure 4: OFFSHORE and ONSHORE NCF CHART

% SHARE OF CASHFLOW % SHARE OF CASHFLOW

Figure 5: Percent Share of Cash Flow of offshore projects

% SHARE OF CASHFLOW % SHARE OF CASHFLOW

% SHARE OF CASHFLOW % SHARE OF CASHFLOW

% SHARE OF CASHFLOW % SHARE OF CASHFLOW

Figure 8: Percent share of Cash flow of onshore project without Insurgencies

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Table 3: Offshore Profitability Results

Table 4: Onshore Profitability Results

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Table 4: Distribution assumptions for offshore and onshore projects