MATHEMATICS

TARGET IIT JEE 2020-21

XIII (X)

PROBABILITY

CONTENTS
KEY CONCEPT .................................................................. Page –2

EXERCISE–I ...................................................................... Page –6

EXERCISE–II ..................................................................... Page –8

EXERCISE–III ................................................................... Page –12

ANSWER KEY .................................................................... Page –15 - 16

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 KEY CONCEPTS
THINGS TO REMEMBER :
RESULT  1
(i) SAMPLE–SPACE : The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the SAMPLE–SPACE(S).
(ii) EVENT : A sub set of samplespace is called an EVENT.
(iii) COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT A : The set of all out comes which are in S but not in A is called
the COMPLEMENT OF THE EVENT A DENOTED BY A OR AC .
(iv) COMPOUND EVENT : If A & B are two given events then AB is called COMPOUND EVENT and
is denoted by AB or AB or A & B .
(v) MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS : Two events are said to be MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE (or disjoint or
incompatible) if the occurence of one precludes (rules out) the simultaneous occurence of the other . If
A & B are two mutually exclusive events then P (A & B) = 0.
(vi) EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS : Events are said to be EQUALLY LIKELY when each event is as likely to occur
as any other event.
(vii) EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS : Events A,B,C ........ L are said to be EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS if no event outside this
set can result as an outcome of an experiment . For example, if A & B are two events defined on a sample
space S, then A & B are exhaustive  A  B = S P (A  B) = 1 .
(viii) CLASSICAL DEF. OF PROBABILITY : If n represents the total number of equally likely , mutually exclusive
and exhaustive outcomes of an experiment and m of them are favourable to the happening of the
event A, then the probability of happening of the event A is given by P(A) = m/n .
Note : (1) 0  P(A)  1
(2) P(A) + P( A ) = 1, Where A = Not A .
x
(3) If x cases are favourable to A & y cases are favourable to A then P(A) = and
(x  y )
y
P( A ) = We say that ODDS IN FAVOUR OF A are x: y & odds against A are y : x
(x  y )

Comparative study of Equally likely , Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive events.

Experiment Events E/L M/E Exhaustive
1. Throwing of a die A : throwing an odd face {1, 3, 5} No Yes No
B : throwing a composite face {4,. 6}
2. A ball is drawn from E1 : getting a W ball
an urn containing 2W, E2 : getting a R ball No Yes Yes
3R and 4G balls E3 : getting a G ball
3. Throwing a pair of A : throwing a doublet
dice {11, 22, 33, 44, 55, 66}
B : throwing a total of 10 or more Yes No No
{46, 64, 55, 56, 65, 66}
4. From a well shuffled E1 : getting a heart
pack of cards a card is E2 : getting a spade Yes Yes Yes
drawn E3 : getting a diamond
E4 : getting a club
5. From a well shuffled A = getting a heart
pack of cards a card is B = getting a face card No No No
drawn

Probability [2]
RESULT  2
AUB = A+ B = A or B denotes occurence of at least
U
A or B. For 2 events A & B : (See fig.1)
(i) P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(AB) =
P(A. B ) + P( A .B) + P(A.B) = 1  P( A . B ) A  BA  BB  A
(ii) Opposite of " atleast A or B " is NIETHER A NOR B
i.e. A  B = 1-(A or B) = A  B AB
Note that P(A+B) + P( A  B ) = 1. Fig . 1

(iii) If A & B are mutually exclusive then P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).

(iv) For any two events A & B, P(exactly one of A , B occurs)
= PA  B  PB  A   P( A ) P( B) 2P( A  B)
= P A  B  P A  B  P A c  B c  P A c  B c
   
(v) If A & B are any two events P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A) = P(B).P(A/B), Where P(B/A) means
conditional probability of B given A & P(A/B) means conditional probability of A given B. (This can
be easily seen from the figure)
(vi) DE MORGAN'S LAW :  If A & B are two subsets of a universal set U , then
(a) (AB)c = AcBc & (b) (AB)c = AcBc
(vii) A  (BC) = (AB)  (AC) & A  (BC) = (AB)  (AC)
RESULT  3
For any three events A,B and C we A U
have (See Fig. 2) B
B A  C
(i) P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) A  B C ABC
+ P(C)  P(AB)  P(BC)
P(CA) + P(ABC)
ABC
(ii) P (at least two of A,B,C occur) =
P(BC) + P(CA) +
P(AB)  2P(ABC) ACB CBA

(iii) P(exactly two of A,B,C occur) = ABC

P(BC) + P(CA) + CA B C
P(AB)  3P(ABC)
Fig. 2
(iv) P(exactly one of A,B,C occurs) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C)  2P(BC)  2P(CA)  2P(AB)+3P(ABC)

NOTE :
If three events A, B and C are pair wise mutually exclusive then they must be mutually exclusive.
i.e P(AB) = P(BC) = P(CA) = 0  P(ABC) = 0. However the converse of this is not true.

Probability [3]
RESULT  4
INDEPENDENT EVENTS : Two events A & B are said to be independent if occurence or non occurence
of one does not effect the probability of the occurence or non occurence of other.
(i) If the occurence of one event affects the probability of the occurence of the other event then the events
are said to be DEPENDENT or CONTINGENT . For two independent events
A and B : P(A B) = P(A). P(B). Often this is taken as the definition of independent events.
(ii) Three events A , B & C are independent if & only if all the following conditions hold ;
P(AB) = P(A) . P(B) ; P(BC) = P(B) . P(C)
P(CA) = P(C) . P(A) & P(ABC) = P(A) . P(B) . P(C)
i.e. they must be pairwise as well as mutually independent .
Similarly for n events A1 , A2 , A3 , ...... An to be independent , the number of these conditions is equal
to nc2 + nc3 + ..... + ncn = 2n  n  1.
(iii) The probability of getting exactly r success in n independent trials is given by
P(r) = nCr pr qnr where : p = probability of success in a single trial .
q = probability of failure in a single trial. note : p + q = 1 .
Note : Independent events are not in general mutually exclusive & vice versa.
Mutually exclusiveness can be used when the events are taken from the same experiment & independence
can be used when the events are taken from different experiments .
RESULT  5 : BAYE'S THEOREM OR TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM :
If an event A can occur only with one of the n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events B1, B2, .... Bn
& the probabilities P(A/B1) , P(A/B2) ....... P(A/Bn) are known then,
P (Bi ). P A / Bi 
P (B1/A) = n
 P (Bi ). P A / Bi 
i 1

PROOF :
The events A occurs with one of the n mutually exclusive & exhaustive events B1,B2,B3,........Bn
A = AB1 + AB2 + AB3 + ....... + ABn
n

P(A) = P(AB1) + P(AB2) +.......+ P(ABn) =  P(ABi )

i 1

NOTE : A  event what we have ; B1  event what we want ;

B2, B3, ....Bn are alternative event .
Now,
P(A B i ) = P(A) . P(Bi/A) = P(Bi ) . P(A/Bi)
B3 Bn1
B2
P (Bi ) . P A / B i  P (B i ) . P  A / Bi 
P Bi / A  = n A Bn
P (A ) B1
 P (ABi )
i 1

P (B i ) . P  A / B i 
P  Bi / A 
 P (B ) . P A / B 
i i

Fig . 3

Probability [4]
RESULT  6
If p1 and p2 are the probabilities of speaking the truth of two indenpendent witnesses A and B then
p1 p 2
P (their combined statement is true) = .
p1 p 2  (1  p1 )(1  p 2 )
In this case it has been assumed that we have no knowledge of the event except the statement made by
A and B.
However if p is the probability of the happening of the event before their statement then
p p1 p 2
P (their combined statement is true) = .
p p1 p 2  (1  p ) (1  p1 ) (1  p 2 )
Here it has been assumed that the statement given by all the independent witnesses can be given in two
ways only, so that if all the witnesses tell falsehoods they agree in telling the same falsehood.
If this is not the case and c is the chance of their coincidence testimony then the
Pr. that the statement is true = P p1 p2
Pr. that the statement is false = (1p).c (1p1)(1p2)
However chance of coincidence testimony is taken only if the joint statement is not contradicted by any
witness.
RESULT  7
(i) A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION spells out how a total probability of 1 is distributed over several values
of a random variable .
(ii) Mean of any probability distribution of a random variable is given by :
p x i i
pi xi ( Since  pi = 1 )
  
p i

(iii) Variance of a random variable is given by, ² = ( xi  µ)² . pi

² =  pi x²i  µ² ( Note that SD =   2 )

(iv) The probability distribution for a binomial variate ‘X’ is given by ;

P (X = r)= nCr pr qnr where all symbols have the same meaning as given in result 4.

The recurrence formula P (r  1)  n  r . p , is very helpful for quickly computing

P (r) r 1 q
P(1) , P(2). P(3) etc. if P(0) is known .
(v) Mean of BPD = np ; variance of BPD = npq .
(vi) If p represents a persons chance of success in any venture and ‘M’ the sum of money which he will
receive in case of success, then his expectations or probable value = pM
expectations = pM

RESULT  8 : GEOMETRICAL APPLICATIONS :

The following statements are axiomatic :
(i) If a point is taken at random on a given staright line AB, the chance that it falls on a particular
segment PQ of the line is PQ/AB .
(ii) If a point is taken at random on the area S which includes an area , the chance that the point
falls on  is /S .

Probability [5]
 EXERCISE-I
Q.1 In a box , there are 8 alphabets cards with the letters: S, S, A, A,A, H, H, H. Find the probability that
the word ‘ASH’ will form if:
(i) the three cards are drawn one by one & placed on the table in the same order that they are drawn.
(ii) the three cards are drawn simultaneously .
Q.2 Numbers are selected at random , one at a time, from the two digit numbers 00, 01, 02, ..... , 99 with
replacement. An event E occurs if & only if the product of the two digits of a selected number is 18.
If four numbers are selected, find the probability that the event E occurs at least 3 times.
Q.3 There are 2 groups of subjects one of which consists of 5 science subjects & 3 engg. subjects & other
consists of 3 science & 5 engg. subjects . An unbiased die is cast . If the number 3 or 5 turns up a subject
is selected at random from first group, otherwise the subject is selected from 2nd group . Find the
probability that an engg. subject is selected.

Q.4 A pair of fair dice is tossed. Find the probability that the maximum of the two numbers is greater than 4.

Q.5 In a given race, the odds in favour of four horses A, B, C & D are 1 : 3, 1 : 4, 1 : 5 and 1 : 6 respectively.
Assuming that a dead heat is impossible, find the chance that one of them wins the race.
Q.6 A covered basket of flowers has some lilies and roses. In search of rose, Sweety and Shweta alternately
pick up a flower from the basket but puts it back if it is not a rose. Sweety is 3 times more likely to be the
first one to pick a rose. If sweety begin this 'rose hunt' and if there are 60 lilies in the basket, find the
number of roses in the basket.
Q.7 To pass a test a child has to perform successfully in two consecutive tasks, one easy and one hard task.
The easy task he can perform successfully with probability 'e' and the hard task he can perfrom successfully
with probability 'h', where h < e. He is allowed 3 attempts, either in the order (Easy, Hard, Easy)
(option A) or in the order (Hard, Easy, Hard) (option B) whatever may be the order, he must be successful
twice in a row. Assuming that his attempts are independent, in what order he choses to take the tasks, in
order to maximise his probability of passing the test.
Q.8(a) Players A and B alternately toss a biased coin, with A going first. A wins if A tosses a Tail before B tosses
a Head; otherwise B wins. If the probability of a head is p, find the value of p for which the game is fair
to both players.
a b
(b) The entries in a two-by-two determinant are integers that are chosen randomly and independently,,
c d
and, for each entry, the probability that the entry is odd is p. If the probability that the value of the
determinant is even is 1/2, then find the value of p.
Q.9 There are 4 urns. The first urn contains 1 white & 1 black ball, the second urn contains 2 white & 3 black
balls, the third urn contains 3 white & 5 black balls & the fourth urn contains 4 white & 7 black balls. The

th i2  1
selection of each urn is not equally likely. The probability of selecting i urn is
34
(i = 1, 2, 3, 4). If we randomly select one of the urns & draw a ball, then the probability of ball being
white is p q where p and q  N are in their lowest form. Find (p + q).

Q.10 A room has three electric lamps . From a collection of 10 electric bulbs of which 6 are good 3 are
selected at random & put in the lamps. Find the probability that the room is lighted.

Probability [6]
Q.11 A bomber wants to destroy a bridge. Two bombs are sufficient to destroy it.
If four bombs are dropped, what is the probability that it is destroyed, if the chance of a bomb hitting the
target is 0.4.
Q.12 The chance of one event happening is the square of the chance of a 2nd event, but odds against the first
are the cubes of the odds against the 2nd . Find the chances of each. (assume that both events are neither
sure nor impossible).

Q.13 A box contains 5 radio tubes of which 2 are defective . The tubes are tested one after the other until the
2 defective tubes are discovered . Find the probability that the process stopped on the
(i) Second test; (ii) Third test. If the process stopped on the third test , find the probability that the first
tube is non defective.

Q.14 Anand plays with Karpov 3 games of chess. The probability that he wins a game is 0.5, looses with
probability 0.3 and ties with probability 0.2. If he plays 3 games then find the probability that he wins
atleast two games.

Q.15 An aircraft gun can take a maximum of four shots at an enemy’s plane moving away from it. The probability
of hitting the plane at first, second, third & fourth shots are 0.4, 0.3, 0.2 & 0.1 respectively. What is the
probability that the gun hits the plane .

Q.16 In a batch of 10 articles, 4 articles are defective. 6 articles are taken from the batch for inspection.
If more than 2 articles in this batch are defective , the whole batch is rejected Find the probability that
the batch will be rejected.

Q.17 A game is played with a special fair cubic die which has one red side, two blue sides, and three green
sides. The result is the colour of the top side after the die has been rolled. If the die is rolled repeatedly,
the probability that the second blue result occurs on or before the tenth roll, can be expressed in the form
3p  2 q
where p, q, r are positive integers, find the value of p2 + q2 + r2.
3r

Q.18 An author writes a good book with a probability of 1/2. If it is good it is published with a probability of
2/3. If it is not, it is published with a probability of 1/4. Find the probability that he will get atleast one
book published if he writes two.

Q.19 3 students {A, B, C} tackle a puzzle together and offers a solution upon which majority of the 3 agrees.
Probability of A solving the puzzle correctly is p. Probability of B solving the puzzle correctly is also p. C
is a dumb student who randomly supports the solution of either A or B. There is one more student D,
whose probability of solving the puzzle correctly is once again, p. Out of the 3 member team {A, B, C}
and one member team {D}, Which one is more likely to solve the puzzle correctly.

Q.20 A uniform unbised die is constructed in the shape of a regular tetrahedron with faces numbered 2, 2, 3
and 4 and the score is taken from the face on which the die lands. If two such dice are thrown together,
find the probability of scoring.
(i) exactly 6 on each of 3 successive throws.
(ii) more than 4 on at least one of the three successive throws.
Q.21 Two cards are drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that one of them
is a red card & the other is a queen.

Probability [7]
Q.22 A person flips 4 fair coins and discards those which turn up tails. He again flips the remaining coin and
then discards those which turn up tails. Find the probability that he discards atleast 3 coins.

Q.23 Consider the following events for a family with children

A = {of both the genders} ; B = {at most one boy}
In which of the following (are/is) the events A and B are independent.
(a) if a family has 3 children (b) if a family has 2 children
Assume that the birth of a boy or a girl is equally likely mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

Q.24 A player tosses an unbiased coin and is to score two points for every head turned up and one point for
every tail turned up. If Pn denotes the probability that his score is exactly n points, prove that
1
Pn – Pn – 1 = (P – Pn – 1) n> 3
2 n–2
Also compute P1 and P2 and hence deduce the pr that he scores exactly 4.

Q.25 Each of the ‘n’ passengers sitting in a bus may get down from it at the next stop with probability
p . Moreover , at the next stop either no passenger or exactly one passenger boards the bus . The
probability of no passenger boarding the bus at the next stop being po . Find the probability that
when the bus continues on its way after the stop , there will again be ‘n’ passengers in the bus.

Q.26 A jar contains 2n throughly mixed balls, n white and n black balls. n persons each of whom draw 2 balls
simultaneously from the bag without replacement.
(a) If the probability that each of the n person draw both balls of different colours is 8 35 , then find the
value of n.
(b) If n = 4 then find the probability that each of the 4 persons draw balls of the same colour.
(c) If n = 7 then the probability that each of the 7 persons draw balls of same colour, lies in the interval.

Q.27 16 players take part in a tennis tournament. The order of the matches is chosen at random. There is
always a player better than another one, the better wins. Find
(a) The probability that all the 4 best players reach the semifinals.
(b) The probability that the sixth best reaches the semifinals.

Q.28 A pair of students is selected at random from a probability class. The probability that the pair selected
10
will consist of one male and one female student is . Find the maximum number of students the class
19
can contain.

EXERCISE-II
Q.1 The probabilities that three men hit a target are, respectively, 0.3, 0.5 and 0.4. Each fires once at the
target. (As usual, assume that the three events that each hits the target are independent)
(a) Find the probability that they all : (i) hit the target ; (ii) miss the target
(b) Find the probability that the target is hit : (i) at least once, (ii) exactly once.
(c) If only one hits the target, what is the probability that it was the first man?
Q.2 Let A & B be two events defined on a sample space . Given P(A) = 0.4 ; P(B) = 0.80 and
P A/ B  = 0.10. Then find ; (i) P AB  & P AB A B  .

Probability [8]
Q.3 Three shots are fired independently at a target in succession. The probabilities that the target is hit in the
first shot is 1/2 , in the second 2/3 and in the third shot is 3/4. In case of exactly one hit , the probability
of destroying the target is 1/3 and in the case of exactly two hits, 7/11 and in the case of three hits is
1.0. Find the probability of destroying the target in three shots.

Q.4 In a game of chance each player throws two unbiased dice and scores the difference between the larger
and smaller number which arise. Two players compete and one or the other wins if and only if he scores
atleast 4 more than his opponent. Find the probability that neither player wins.

Q.5 There are two packs A and B of 52 playing cards. All the four aces from the pack A are removed
whereas from the pack B, one ace, one king, one queen and one jack is removed. One of these two
packs is slected randomly and two cards are drawn simultaneously from it, and found to be a pair
(i.e. both have same rank e.g. two 9's or two king etc). Find the probability that the pack A was
selected.

Q.6 A plane is landing. If the weather is favourable, the pilot landing the plane can see the runway. In this case
the probability of a safe landing is p1. If there is a low cloud ceiling, the pilot has to make a blind landing
by instruments. The reliability (the probability of failure free functioning) of the instruments needed for a
blind landing is P. If the blind landing instruments function normally, the plane makes a safe landing with
the same probability p1 as in the case of a visual landing. If the blind landing instruments fail, then the pilot
may make a safe landing with probability p2 < p1. Compute the probability of a safe landing if it is known
that in K percent of the cases there is a low cloud ceiling. Also find the probability that the pilot used the
blind landing instrument, if the plane landed safely.

Q.7 A certain drug, manufactured by a Company is tested chemically for its toxic nature. Let the event "THE
DRUG IS TOXIC" be denoted by H and the event "THE CHEMICAL TEST REVEALS THAT THE DRUG IS TOXIC"

be denoted by S. Let P(H) = a, P S / H = P S / H  = 1  a. Then show that the probability that the
drug is not toxic given that the chemical test reveals that it is toxic, is free from 'a'.

Q.8 During a power blackout, 100 persons are arrested on suspect of looting. Each is given a polygraph
test. From past experience it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when administered to a guilty
person and 98% reliable when given to some one who is innocent. Suppose that of the 100 persons
taken into custody, only 12 were actually involved in any wrong doing. If the probability that a given
suspect is innocent given that the photograph says he is guilty is a b where a and b are relatively prime,
find the value of (a + b).

Q.9 n people are asked a question successively in a random order & exactly 2 of the n people know
the answer :
(a) If n > 5, find the probability that the first four of those asked do not know the answer.
(b) Show that the probability that the rth person asked is the first person to know the answer is
 2 (n  r) 
  , if 1 < r < n .
 n ( n  1) 

Q.10 A box contains three coins two of them are fair and one two  headed. A coin is selected at random and
tossed. If the head appears the coin is tossed again, if a tail appears, then another coin is selected from
the remaining coins and tossed.
(i) Find the probability that head appears twice.
(ii) If the same coin is tossed twice, find the probability that it is two headed coin.
(iii) Find the probability that tail appears twice.
Probability [9]
Q.11 The ratio of the number of trucks along a highway, on which a petrol pump is located, to the number of
cars running along the same highway is 3 : 2. It is known that an average of one truck in thirty trucks and
two cars in fifty cars stop at the petrol pump to be filled up with the fuel. If a vehicle stops at the petrol
pump to be filled up with the fuel, find the probability that it is a car.

Q.12 A batch of fifty radio sets was purchased from three different companies A, B and C. Eighteen of them
were manufactured by A, twenty of them by B and the rest were manufactured by C.
The companies A and C produce excellent quality radio sets with probability equal to 0.9 ; B produces
the same with the probability equal to 0.6.
What is the probability of the event that the excellent quality radio set chosen at random is manufactured
by the company B?

Q.13 Integers a, b, c and d not necessarily distinct, are chosen independently and at random from the set
p
S = {0, 1, 2, 3, ...... 2006, 2007}. If the probability that | ad – bc | is even, is where p and q are
q
relatively prime the find the value of (p + q).

Q.14 Eight players P1, P2, P3, ............P8 play a knock-out tournament. It is known that whenever the players
Pi and Pj play, the player Pi will win if i < j. Assuming that the players are paired at random in each round,
what is the probability that the player P4 reaches the final.

Q.15 A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor knows (prior to the visit) that 90% of the sick children
in that neighbourhood are sick with the flu, denoted by F, while 10% are sick with the measles, denoted
by M.
A well known symptom of measles is a rash, denoted by R. The probability of having a rash for a child
sick with the measles is 0.95. However, occasionally children with the flu also develop a rash, with
conditional probability 0.08.
Upon examination the child, the doctor finds a rash. What is the probability that the child has the measles?
If the probability can be expressed in the form of p q where p, q  N and are in their lowest form,
find (p + q)

Q.16 Two cards are randomly drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 playing cards, without replacement. Let
x be the first number and y be the second number.
Suppose that Ace is denoted by the number 1; Jack is denoted by the number 11 ; Queen is denoted
by the number 12 ; King is denoted by the number 13.
Find the probability that x and y satisfy log3(x + y) – log3x – log3y + 1 = 0.

Q.17(a) Two numbers x & y are chosen at random from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, ...., 3n}. Find the probability
that x2  y2 is divisible by 3.
(b) Five distinct numbers from the set {1, 2, 3, ..... 17} are chosen randomly. Find the probability that their
sum is divisible by 3.
(c) If two whole numbers x and y are randomly selected from the set of natural numbers, then find the
probability that x3 + y3 is divisible by 8.
a2
Q.18 A hunter’s chance of shooting an animal at a distance 'r' is (r > a). He fires when r = 2a and
r2
if he misses he reloads & fires when r = 3a, 4a, ..... If he misses at a distance ‘na’, the animal escapes.
Find the odds against the hunter.

Probability [10]
Q.19 A hotel packed breakfast for each of the three guests. Each breakfast should have consisted of three
types of rolls, one each of nut, cheese and fruit rolls. The preparer wrapped each of the nine rolls and
once warpped, the rolls were indistinguishable from one another. She then randomly put three rolls in a
bag for each of the guests. If the probability that each guset got one roll of each type is m n where m
and n are relatively prime integers, find the value of (m + n).
n2
Q.20 A coin is tossed (m + n) times (m>n). Show that the probability of at least m consecutive heads is
2 m 1

Q.21 There are two lots of identical articles with different amount of standard and defective articles. There are
N articles in the first lot, n of which are defective and M articles in the second lot, m of which are
defective. K articles are selected from the first lot and L articles from the second and a new lot results.
Find the probability that an article selected at random from the new lot is defective.

Q.22 In a tournament, team X, plays with each of the 6 other teams once. For each match the probabilities of
a win, draw and loss are equal. Find the probability that the team X, finishes with more wins than losses.

Q.23 With respect to a particular question on a multiple choice test (having 4 alternatives with only 1 correct)
a student knows the answer and therefore can eliminate 3 of the 4 choices from consideration with
probability 2/3, can eliminate 2 of the 4 choices from consideration with probability 1/6, can eliminate 1
choice from consideration with probability 1/9, and can eliminate none with probability 1/18. If the
student knows the answer, he answers correctly, otherwise he guesses from among the choices not
eliminated. a
If the answer given by the student was found correct, then the probability that he knew the answer is
b
where a and b are relatively prime. Find the value of (a + b).

Q.24 A match between two players A and B is won by the player who first wins two games. A's chance of
winning, drawing or losing any particular games are 1/2, 1/6 or 1/3 respectively. If the probability of A's
winning the match can be expressed in the form p/q, find (p + q).

Q.25 Three bags A, B and C are given, each containing 6 marbles. The first bag A has 5 black marbles and 1
white. The second bag B has 4 black marbles and 2 white marbles. The third bag C has 3 black marbles
and 3 white marbles. Two marbles are drawn randomly one from each of two different bags (we do not
know which bags) and found to be one white and the other black. Let P denote the probability that a
marble drawn from the remaining bag is white.
(i) Find the probability of drawing one white and one black marble from any two of the selected bags.
(ii) If one white and one black marble has been drawn, then find the probability that bags A and B were
selected.
m
(iii) If P = (as a reduced fraction), then find the value of (m + n).
n

Probability [11]
 EXERCISE-III
Q.1 A coin has probability ' p ' of showing head when tossed. It is tossed 'n' times. Let pn denote the
probability that no two (or more) consecutive heads occur. Prove that,
p1 = 1 , p2 = 1  p2 & pn = (1  p) pn  1 + p (1  p) pn  2 , for all n  3.
[ JEE ' 2000 (Mains), 5 ]

Q.2 A and B are two independent events. The probability that both occur simultaneously is 1/6 and the
probability that neither occurs is 1/3. Find the probabilities of occurance of the events A and B separately.
[ REE ' 2000 (Mains), 3]

Q.3 Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of playing cards. Find the probability that one card is a
heart and the other is an ace. [ REE ' 2001 (Mains), 3 ]

Q.4(a) An urn contains 'm' white and 'n' black balls. A ball is drawn at random and is put back into the urn along
with K additional balls of the same colour as that of the ball drawn. A ball is again drawn at random.
What is the probability that the ball drawn now is white.

(b) An unbiased die, with faces numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is thrown n times and the list of n numbers showing
up is noted. What is the probability that among the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, only three numbers appear
in the list. [JEE ' 2001 (Mains), 5 + 5 ]

Q.5 A box contains N coins, m of which are fair and the rest are biased. The probability of getting a head
when a fair coin is tossed is 1/2, while it is 2/3 when a biased coin is tossed. A coin is drawn from the box
at random and is tossed twice. The first time it shows head and the second time it shows tail. What is the
probability that the coin drawn is fair? [ JEE ' 2002 (mains)]

Q.6(a) A person takes three tests in succession. The probability of his passing the first test is p, that of his passing
each successive test is p or p/2 according as he passes or fails in the preceding one. He gets selected
provided he passes at least two tests. Determine the probability that the person is selected.

(b) In a combat, A targets B, and both B and C target A. The probabilities of A, B, C hitting their targets
are 2/3 , 1/2 and 1/3 respectively. They shoot simultaneously and A is hit. Find the probability that B hits
his target whereas C does not. [JEE' 2003, Mains-2 + 2 out of 60]

Q.7(a) Three distinct numbers are selected from first 100 natural numbers. The probability that all the three
numbers are divisible by 2 and 3 is
4 4 4 4
(A) (B) (C) (D)
25 35 55 1155

(b) If A and B are independent events, prove that P (A  B) · P (A'  B')  P (C), where C is an event
defined that exactly one of A or B occurs.

(c) A bag contains 12 red balls and 6 white balls. Six balls are drawn one by one without replacement of
which atleast 4 balls are white. Find the probability that in the next two draws exactly one white ball is
drawn (leave the answer in terms of nCr). [JEE 2004, 3 + 2 + 4]

Probability [12]
Q.8(a) A six faced fair dice is thrown until 1 comes, then the probability that 1 comes in even number of trials is
(A) 5/11 (B) 5/6 (C) 6/11 (D) 1/6
[JEE 2005 (Scr)]
1 3 2 1
(b) A person goes to office either by car, scooter, bus or train the probability of which being , , and
7 7 7 7
2 1 4 1
respectively. Probability that he reaches office late, if he takes car, scooter, bus or train is , , and
9 9 9 9
respectively. Given that he reached office in time, then what is the probability that he travelled by a car.
[JEE 2005 (Mains), 2]

Comprehension (3 questions)
There are n urns each containing n + 1 balls such that the ith urn contains i white balls and (n + 1 – i) red
balls. Let ui be the event of selecting ith urn, i = 1, 2, 3, ......, n and w denotes the event of getting a white
ball.
Q.9(a) If P(ui)  i where i = 1, 2, 3,....., n then Lim P( w ) is equal to
n 
(A) 1 (B) 2/3 (C) 3/4 (D) 1/4
(b) If P(ui) = c, where c is a constant then P(un/w) is equal to
2 1 n 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
n 1 n 1 n 1 2
1
(c) If n is even and E denotes the event of choosing even numbered urn ( P(u i )  ), then the value of
n
Pw E  , is
n2 n2 n 1
(A) (B) (C) (B)
2n  1 2n  1 n 1 n 1
[JEE 2006, 5 marks each]

Q.10(a) One Indian and four American men and their wives are to be seated randomly around a circular table.
Then the conditional probability that the Indian man is seated adjacent to his wife given that each American
man is seated adjacent to his wife is
(A) 1/2 (B) 1/3 (C) 2/5 (D) 1/5

(b) Let Ec denote the complement of an event E. Let E, F, G be pairwise independent events with P(G) > 0
and P(E  F  G) = 0. Then P(Ec  Fc | G) equals
(A) P(Ec) + P(Fc) (B) P(Ec) – P(Fc)
(C) P(Ec) – P(F) (D) P(E) – P(Fc)
(c) Let H1, H2, ....... , Hn be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events with P(Hi) > 0, i = 1, 2, ...., n. Let E
be any other event with 0 < P(E) < 1.
Statement-1: P(Hi / E) > P(E / Hi) · P(Hi) for i = 1, 2, ....., n.
because
n
Statement-2:  P(H i ) = 1
i 1
(A) Statement-1 is true, statement-2 is true; statement-2 is a correct explanation for statement-1.
(B) Statement-1 is true, statement-2 is true; statement-2 is NOT a correct explanation for statement-1.
(C) Statement-1 is true, statement-2 is false.
(D) Statement-1 is false, statement-2 is true. [JEE 2007, 3+3+3]
Probability [13]
Q.11(a) An experiment has 10 equally likely outcomes. Let A and B be two non-empty events of the experiment.
If A consists of 4 outcomes, the number of outcomes that B must have so that A and B are independent,
is
(A) 2, 4 or 8 (B) 3, 6, or 9 (C) 4 or 8 (D) 5 or 10

(b) Consider the system of equations

ax + by = 0, cx + dy = 0, where a, b, c, d  {0, 1}.
3
STATEMENT-1 : The probability that the system of equations has a unique solution is .
8
and
STATEMENT-2 : The probability that the system of equations has a solution is 1.
(A) Statement-1 is True, Statement-2 is True ; statement-2 is a correct explanation for statement-1
(B) Statement-1 is True, Statement-2 is True ; statement-2 is NOT a correct explanation for statement-1
(C) Statement-1 is True, Statement-2 is False
(D) Statement-1 is False, Statement-2 is True [JEE 2008, 3+3]

Comprehension (3 questions)
Q.12 A fair die is tossed repeatedly until a six is obtained. Let X denote the number of tosses required.
(a) The probability that X = 3 equals
25 25 5 125
(A) (B) (C) (D)
216 36 36 216
(b) The probability that X  3 equals
125 25 5 25
(A) (B) (C) (D)
216 36 36 216
(c) The conditional probability that X  6 given X > 3 equals
125 25 5 25
(A) (B) (C) (D)
216 216 36 36
[JEE 2009, 4+4+4]

Probability [14]
 ANSWER KEY
EXERCISE-I
Q.1 (i) 3/56 (ii) 9/28 Q.2 97/(25)4 Q.3 13/24 Q.4 5/9 Q.5 319/420

5 1 2
Q.6 120 Q.7 Option B Q.8 (a) ; (b) Q.9 2065
2 2

29 328 1 1
Q.10 Q.11 Q.12 , Q.13 (i) 1/10, (ii) 3/10, (iii) 2/3
30 625 9 3

Q.14 1/2 Q.15 0.6976 Q.16 19/42 Q.17 283 Q.18 407/576

125 63 189
Q.19 Both are equally likely Q.20 (i) 3 ; (ii) Q.21 101/1326 Q.22
16 64 256
Q.23 Independent in (a) and not independent in (b) Q.24 P1 = 1/2 , P2 = 3/4

Q.25 (1  p)n1 . [ po (1  p) + np(1 p0 )] Q.26 (a) 4; (b) 3 35 ; (c) 0

64 24
Q.27 (a) ; (b) Q.28 20
455 91

EXERCISE-II
5
Q.1 (a) 6%, 21% ; (b) 79%, 44%, (c) 9/44  20.45% Q.2 (i) 0.82, (ii) 0.76 Q.3
8
12
Q.4 74/81 Q.5
23

K
[ P p1  (1  P) p 2 ]
K K 100
Q.6 P(E )  (1  ) p1  [P p1  (1  P) p 2 ] ; P(H2/A) =
100 100  K  K
1   p1  [ P p1  (1  P) p 2 ]
 100  100
(n  4) (n  5)
Q.7 P H / S = 1/2 Q.8 179 Q.9 (a) n ((n  1)

4 4
Q.10 1/2, 1/2, 1/12 Q.11 Q.12 Q.13 13 Q.14 4/35
9 13

11 (5n  3) 1033 5
Q.15 262 Q.16 Q.17 (a) (9n  3) , (b) , (c)
663 3094 16

KnM  Lm N 98
Q.18 n+1 : n1 Q.19 79 Q.21 M N (K  L) Q.22
243

25 7
Q.23 317 Q.24 206 Q.25 (i) ; (ii) ; (iii) 33
54 25

Probability [15]
 EXERCISE-III
1 1 1 1
Q.2 & or &
2 3 3 2

6
1 m C 3  3 n  3.2 n  3 9m
Q.3 Q.4 (a) ; (b) Q.5
26 m n 6n m  8N

12
C 2 6 C 410 C12 C1 12 C16 C511C11C1
Q.6 (a) p2 (2 – p); (b) 1/2 Q.7 (a) D, (c) 12
C2 12
 C 2 6 C 4 12 C16 C5 12 C 0 6 C 6 
1
Q.8 (a) A, (b) Q.9 (a) B, (b) A, (c) B Q.10 (a) C; (b) C; (c) D
7
Q.11 (a) D, (b) B Q.12 (a) A, (b) B, (c) D

Probability [16]