Earlywarningdatabase

Total Distribution of Indicators
Accountability
Civil-Military Relations
External Defense
Internal Stability
Professionalism
Civic Participation
Formal Rules, Institutions, & Processes
Local Governance
Regime Effectiveness
Regime Legitimacy
Effective & Unbiased Police

Human Rights
Independent Judiciary
Local Dispute Resolution Mechanisms
Transitional Justice Mechanisms
Inflation & Unemployment

Macroeconomic Stability
Poverty & Existence of Informal Economy
Resource Competition
Trade
Demographics
Displacement
Education
Health
Social Tensions
International Influence
Structural Inequalities
The Environment & Natural Resources
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
The
Environment &
Cross-Cutting
Natural Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6

Resources
Structural 0 25 0 0 0 0 0
Inequalities
International 0 52 0 0 0 0 0
Influence 0 50 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Social Well-Being
Social Tensions 0 0 41 0 0 0 0
Health 0 0 20 0 0 0 0
Education 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Displacement 0 0 16 0 0 0 0
Demographics 0 0 17 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trade 0 0 0 42 0 0 0
Resource Compet 0 0 0 13 0 0 0
Economics
Poverty & Existe 0 0 0 28 0 0 0

Macroeconomic St 0 0 0 66 0 0 0
Justice & Reconciliation
Inflation & Unem 0 0 0 28 0 0 0

0 0
Transitional Jus 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Local Dispute Re 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
Independent Judi 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
Human Rights 0 0 0 0 24 0 0
Effective & Unbia 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Regime Legitima 0 0 0 0 0 19 0
Regime Effective 0 0 0 0 0 58 0
Governance
Local Governanc 0 0 0 0 0 6 0
Formal Rules, Ins 0 0 0 0 0 75 0
Civic Participatio 0 0 0 0 0 63 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Professionalism 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Internal Stability 0 0 0 0 0 0 92
External Defense 0 0 0 0 0 0 31
Security
Civil-Military Rel 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Accountability 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
5
Security
Governance
Justice &
Reconciliation
Economics
Social Well-
Being
Cross-Cutting
0 60 70 80 90 100
98
National Government Models
Accountability
External Defense
Internal Stability
Professionalism
Civic Participation
Local Governance
Regime Legitimacy

Human Rights

Trade
Demographics
Displacement
Education
Health
Social Tensions
0 2 4 6 8 10
The
Environment &
Cross-Cutting

Resources
Inequalities
Influence 0 7 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Social Well-Being
Health 0 0 12 0 0 0 0
Education 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trade 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
Economics


0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Governance
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Security
6
Security
Governance
Economics
Social Well-Being
Cross-Cutting
8 10 12 14
International & Regional Organization Models
Accountability
External Defense
Internal Stability
Professionalism
Civic Participation
Local Governance
Regime Legitimacy

Human Rights

Trade
Demographics
Displacement
Education
Health
Social Tensions
0 5 10 15 20
The
Environment &
Cross-Cutting

Resources
Inequalities
Influence 0 15 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Social Well-Being
Health 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
Education 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trade 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
Economics


0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Governance
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Security
7
Security
Governance
Economics
Social Well-Being
Cross-Cutting
15 20 25 30
Academic, NGO, & Think Tank
Accountability
External Defense
Internal Stability
Professionalism
Civic Participation
Local Governance
Regime Legitimacy

Human Rights

Trade
Demographics
Displacement
Education
Health
Social Tensions
0 10 20 30 40
The
Environment &
Cross-Cutting

Resources
Inequalities
Influence 0 22 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Social Well-Being
Health 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
Education 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trade 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
Economics


0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Governance
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Security
8
Security
Governance
Justice &
Reconciliation
Economics
Social Well-Being
Cross-Cutting
40 50 60
Private Models
Accountability
External Defense
Internal Stability
Professionalism
Civic Participation
Local Governance
Regime Legitimacy

Human Rights

Trade
Demographics
Displacement
Education
Health
Social Tensions
0 5 10 15 20
Cross-Cutting
The Environment & Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6

Natural Resources 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
Influence 0 6 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Social Well-Being
Health 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trade 0 0 0 19 0 0 0
Resource Competition 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Economics
Poverty & Existence o 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Macroeconomic Stabili 0 0 0 20 0 0 0
Inflation & Unemploym 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

0 0
Transitional Justice 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Local Dispute Resolut 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independent Judiciary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Effective & Unbiased P 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Regime Legitimacy 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
Regime Effectiveness 0 0 0 0 0 11 0
Governance
Local Governance 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
Formal Rules, Institut 0 0 0 0 0 22 0
Civic Participation 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Security
Civil-Military Relations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9
Security
Governance
Economics
Social Well-Being
Cross-Cutting
15 20 25
Database of Early Warning Indicators 11
Model Category Organization Model Name Pillar Category Indicator Source

Academic, Stability Security apparatus: Does the security apparatus operate as a 'state
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Security Accountability within a state', or is a professional military established that is
Tank Framework (SAF) answerable to legitimate civilian control? (29)
Academic, CAST - Conflict
Patterns of atrocities committed with impunity against communal
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Security Accountability
groups
Tank System Tool (10)
Specific groups singled out by state authorities, or by dominant
groups, for persecution or repression
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Security Accountability Emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity
Academic, CAST - Conflict Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Security Accountability that terrorize political opponents, suspected "enemies," or civilians
Tank System Tool seen to be sympathetic to the opposition (10)
Emergence of an "army within an army" that serves the interests of
the dominant military or political clique
Academic, FAST Analytical
Alliance between Musharraf and Muttahida Majilis-I-Amal on Legal
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security Accountability
Framework Order
Tank Pakistan (25)
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Accountability Disillusionment with security apparatus
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
DAC -
International Development
and Regional OECD Assistance Security Accountability Uncontrolled police and military forces
Organization Committee
Guidelines (20)
Does unlawful state violence exist? Participation of security forces
International EC Checklist for in illegal activities (road blocks, extortion, others), effective
European
and Regional Root Causes of Security Accountability prosecution of human rights abuses by security forces, existence of
Commission
Organization Conflict a minimal human rights framework for their operation, prison
conditions (8)
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Security Accountability Human rights abuses from security forces/ armed groups
Government
Guidelines (12)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Security Accountability State use of political terror
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Security Accountability Extent of state repression of citizens
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
Academic, Stability Leadership: Are elites increasingly factionalized, or do they have
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Governance Civic Participation national perspectives? Are leaders capable of winning loyalties
Tank Framework (SAF) across group lines in society? (29)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Civic Participation Civil society and media
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Civic Participation Regime type and media
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Civic Participation Political stability, opposition- and elite groups
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance Civic Participation Institutionalized political exclusion
Widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and
Academic, CAST - Conflict processes, e.g., widely boycotted or contested elections, mass
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance Civic Participation public demonstrations, sustained civil disobedience, inability of the
Tank System Tool state to collect taxes, resistance to military conscription, rise of
armed insurgencies (10)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Governance Civic Participation Contemporary political discrimination
Carrying Capacity
Tank (17)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance Civic Participation Efforts of strengthening the civil society to bridge gaps
Tank Pakistan (25)
Academic, SDM - State
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Civic Participation Becoming dissident
Tank Dynamics Model (22)
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Civic Participation Dissidents
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Civic Participation Protests
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Civic Participation Average time as dissident
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Civic Participation Regime opponents
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Civic Participation Protest intensity
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Civic Participation Propensity to protest
POFED - The
Academic, Claremont
Politics of Fertility
NGO, & Think Graduate Governance Civic Participation Rates of participation in and deaths from political violence
and Economic
Tank University
Development
(22)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
Academic, Futures for Global
National Institute Ideological oppression against democratic popular movements and
NGO, & Think Interdependence Governance Civic Participation
for Research enforced exile for political reasons
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Civic Participation Media and Propaganda: Inflammatory statements
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Civic Participation Media and Propaganda: Exploitation of divisions/tensions
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Civic Participation Institutional: Lack of civil institutions
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Civic Participation Institutional: Link between populous-government
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Political opposition/Government oppression: Proliferation of
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Civic Participation
and Early opposition groups
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Political opposition/Government oppression: Frequency of political
and Early arrests
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Civic Participation Miniaturization of dissent
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Political opposition/Government oppression: Problems processing
and Early dissent
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Civic Participation Consolidation of opposition: Increased opposition activity
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Consolidation of opposition: Increase in size and cohesion of
and Early opposition groups
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Civic Participation Integrity of elections: Voter intimidation
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Internal political instability: Dominant political positions/ideologies
and Early and their impact on peace and stability
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related General processes of democracy: communications and the role of
and Regional UNDP Governance Civic Participation
Development media
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Governance Civic Participation Political status of women
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Governance Civic Participation Failed elections
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Governance Civic Participation Biased media
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Governance Civic Participation Civil society engagement with the state
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
International CAF- Conflict
and Regional World Bank Analysis Governance Civic Participation Political and civil rights
Organization Framework (32)
and Regional World Bank Analysis Governance Civic Participation Links between government and citizens
and Regional World Bank Analysis Governance Civic Participation Role of media and freedom of expression
REWS SEE
International Regional Early Public Trust Levels Indicators: President, Government, Parliament,
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Civic Participation Local Government, Army, Police, Prosecution, Courts of Law,
Organization for Southeastern Ruling Party, Main Opposition Party
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
International Regional Early
Degree of Freedom of the Regime Indicators: Political Activity,
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Civic Participation
Business Activity
Organization for Southeastern
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Civic Participation Degree of Freedom of the Regime in Terms of Political Opponents
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
General Public Readiness to Strike Indicators: Against the Policies
of the Government
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Civic Participation Participation in Rallies and Street Protests/Expectations
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Rallies and Street Protests Indicators: Participation in, Regularity of
Demands
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Civic Participation Attitudes Towards Corruption
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Civic Participation Readiness to Protest Government Policies and Unemployment
Europe (27)
DAC -
The loss of political space for opposition, civil society and media to
and Regional OECD Assistance Governance Civic Participation
engage in public discourse.
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Governance Civic Participation Pluralism and participation
Guidelines (20)
How inclusive is the political/administrative power? Ethnic and
International EC Checklist for
European religious representativeness of the government, equality of access
and Regional Root Causes of Governance Civic Participation
Commission to political activity, participative decision-making, fair recruitment in
Organization Conflict
the administration and other public institutions… (8)
Are civil and political freedoms respected? Respect of right to
European vote/eligibility, protection of civil liberties including freedom of
Commission speech & of assembly, free and fair elections respecting the rights
of the opposition (8)
Can civil society operate freely and efficiently? Protection of NGOs
European and right of association by the state, liveliness of civil society,
Commission access to staff, training, resources and others, ability to influence
policy processes and solve tensions between communities
(8)
How independent and professional are the media? Censorship by

European government, independence of the media from partisan agendas
Commission and political or private interests, ability to reflect the views of all
social groups, access of journalists to professional training
(8)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International Public discourse, ideological factors and elite behavior: In recent
Clarke and Humanitarian
and Regional Governance Civic Participation cases, public discourse has often reflected an attempt to mobilize
UNOCHA Preparedness and
Organization popular will in favor of violent conflict.
Conflict
Prevention (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International Human rights and civil liberties: Civil liberties violations may include
and Regional Governance Civic Participation violations of the freedom of the domestic press, or harassment
Organization and/or curtailing the free movement of the international press.
Conflict
Prevention (5)
International CPN - Conflict
and Regional EU Prevention Governance Civic Participation Lack of an active and organized civil society
Organization Network (11), p. 30
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National
for Economic Spelten Model Governance Civic Participation Individual actors change political strategy
Government
Cooperation and
Development (11), p. 62
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Governance Civic Participation Lack of independent media and civil society
Government
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
National Lack of popular participation, and gender imbalance, in political and
UK DFID Assessment Governance Civic Participation
Government governance processes
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Governance Civic Participation Absence of cross cutting social and civil society organisations
Government
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
National Canadian Gov't &
Indicators for Governance Civic Participation Restrictions on Civil and Political Rights
Government Carleton U
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Governance Civic Participation Restrictions on Press Freedom
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID, Nature of political participation (absence or presence of
Alert Consultation Governance Civic Participation
Government DCHA/CMM factionalism)
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Governance Civic Participation Extent of citizen participation in selecting government
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
Standard & Poor's

Private Standard & Poor Governance Civic Participation Extent of popular participation
Ratings Group
(3), p. 225
Civil-Military
and Regional World Bank Analysis Security Militarization of society
Relations
Does civilian power control security forces? Influence of security
European Civil-Military forces over political decision-making, role of the Parliament in
and Regional Root Causes of Security
Commission Relations debating/checking their use, existence of open debate and
media/academic scrutiny on the security sector (8)
Conflict
National Civil-Military
UK DFID Assessment Security Presence of non-state military actors
Government Relations
Guidelines (12)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID, Civil-Military
Alert Consultation Security Presence/change in support for militant groups
Government DCHA/CMM Relations
and Tracking
System (28)
Academic, Stability
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Social Well-Being Demographics Demographic pressures: Are pressures mounting or easing?
Tank Framework (SAF) (29)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Social Well-Being Demographics Demographic/population pressure
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Social Well-Being Demographics Mounting Demographic Pressures
Pressures deriving from high population density relative to food
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Social Well-Being Demographics
supply and other life-sustaining resources
Academic, CAST - Conflict Pressures from skewed population distributions, such as a "youth or
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Social Well-Being Demographics age bulge," or from divergent rates of population growth among
Tank System Tool competing communal groups (10)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Social Well-Being Demographics Population pressure
Carrying Capacity
Tank (17)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Social Well-Being Demographics Societal / Socio-Demographic
Tank Pakistan (25)
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Social Well-Being Demographics Births
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Social Well-Being Demographics Population
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Social Well-Being Demographics Population growth
POFED - The
Academic, Claremont
NGO, & Think Graduate Social Well-Being Demographics Births/thousands
and Economic
Tank University
Development
(22)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Demographics Total Population
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Demographics Population Growth Rate
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Demographics Population Density
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Demographics Urban Population
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Demographics Urban Population Growth Rate
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Demographics Youth Bulge
Foreign Policy (6)
Academic, Stability Refugees and internally displaced persons (IDP) situation: Is there
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Social Well-Being Displacement massive movement of refugees and IDPs, creating humanitarian
Tank Framework (SAF) emergencies, or are these resettled and resolved? (29)
Academic, Stability
Emigration and human flight: Is there chronic and sustained human
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Social Well-Being Displacement
flight or a reductoin in the rate of emigration?
"Brain drain" of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Social Well-Being Displacement
fearing persecution or repression
Voluntary emigration of "the middle class," particularly economically
productive segments of the population, such as entrepreneurs,
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Social Well-Being Displacement
business people, artisans and traders, due to economic
Tank System Tool
deterioration (10)
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Social Well-Being Displacement Growth of exile communities
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Social Well-Being Displacement High number of Afghan refugees especially along the Afghan border
Tank Pakistan (25)
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Social Well-Being Displacement Population movements: Civilian movement across border
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Population movements: Restriction of movement into and out of the
NGO, & Think FEWER Social Well-Being Displacement
and Early state
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Social Well-Being Displacement Population movements: IDP’s and refugees
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
DAC -
Migratory flows, both internal and external, for economic and
and Regional OECD Assistance Social Well-Being Displacement
political reasons.
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Social Well-Being Displacement Large movements of people and capital
Guidelines (20)
Are there uncontrolled flows of migrants/refugees? Social friction

European between migrant and host communities (e.g. adverse pressure on
and Regional Root Causes of Social Well-Being Displacement
Commission food, water etc.), respect for basic rights of migrants/refugees,
impact of migration flows on ethnic/identity balance of host regions
(8)
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National
for Economic Spelten Model Social Well-Being Displacement Resettlement
Government
Cooperation and
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Displacement Refugees Produced (Refugees by Country of Origin)
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Displacement Refugees Hosted, IDP and Others of Concern
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Displacement Size of displaced population
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Social Well-Being Education Poor social infrastructure (education, social system)
Tank Pakistan (25)
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Social Well-Being Education Social capacity
POFED - The
Academic, Claremont
NGO, & Think Graduate Social Well-Being Education % population completed high school
and Economic
Tank University
Development
(22)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Social Well-Being Education Poor ratio of educational expenditures to GDP
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Social Well-Being Education Issues relating access to social services: education
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Education Primary School Enrollment
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Education Secondary School Enrollment
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Education Youth literacy rate
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Education Male/female literacy ratio
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Education Deviance from GDP-predicted primary school completion rate
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
Justice & Effective &
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Growth of crime syndicates linked to ruling elites
Reconciliation Unbiased Police
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Justice & Effective &
NGO, & Think FEWER Police: institutional bias
and Early Reconciliation Unbiased Police
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Justice & Effective &
and Regional UNDP Matters relating to the police
Development Reconciliation Unbiased Police
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Justice & Effective &
and Regional UNDP Biased police
Development Reconciliation Unbiased Police
Organization
Analysis (26)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Police Crime Registration
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Types of Crimes Regularly Reported By Citizens
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Police Assistance Sought for Committed Crimes (Frequency)
Europe (27)
Does organized crime undermine the country’s stability? Control of

International EC Checklist for a significant part of the country/economy by criminal networks
European Justice & Effective &
and Regional Root Causes of (drugs, natural resources, human trafficking), existence of private
Commission Reconciliation Unbiased Police
Organization Conflict armies or armed para-military groups acting with impunity, proper
re-integration of former combatants into social life
(8)
EIU - Economist CRS - Country Justice & Effective &
Private Crime
Intelligence Unit Risk Service Reconciliation Unbiased Police (7), p. 123
CRG - Control Justice & Effective &
Private CRG Ratings Crime
Risks Group Reconciliation Unbiased Police (18), p. 373
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Security External Defense Regional and international setting
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Security External Defense External (territorial) disputes
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Security External Defense Arms, small arms
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Security External Defense Military forces and control
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Security External Defense Cold War militarism
Carrying Capacity
Tank (17)
Academic, States with large standing militaries (the Military Participation Ratio,
CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Security External Defense or military personnel as a percent of labor force) and large arms
Carrying Capacity
Tank imports as a proportion of GDP were more risk prone.
(17)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security External Defense Nuclear armament
Tank Pakistan (25)
Strong smuggling networks (narcotics and weapons) particularly
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security External Defense
along the border to Afghanistan
Tank Pakistan (25)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security External Defense Ceasefire along the Line of Control between India and Pakistan
Tank Pakistan (25)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security External Defense Ongoing conflict with India
Tank Pakistan (25)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security External Defense Further nuclear activities
Tank Pakistan (25)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Security External Defense Danger that the above might lead to international warfare
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security External Defense External intervention: Threat of intervention
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security External Defense Cross-border activity: Military build-ups
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security External Defense Cross-border activity: Cross-border shootings
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Security External Defense Matters relating to the military
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Security External Defense International military involvements
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Security External Defense Threats from regional powers
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Security External Defense Role of the national military
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
International EC Checklist for Is the state affected by external threats? Destabilising policies of
European
and Regional Root Causes of Security External Defense outside forces, existence of pro-active ethnic communities/diaspora
Commission
Organization Conflict abroad, ability to control arms trafficking (8)
Is the state affecting regional stability? Support to militias or rebel
International EC Checklist for groups operating on neighbouring territories, protection of war
European
and Regional Root Causes of Security External Defense criminals or rebel groups from neighbouring states, exploitation of
Commission
Organization Conflict the country’s natural resources for foreign policy purposes,
presence of illicit international activities on the country’s territory
(8)
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Security External Defense Poorly controlled/contested borders
Government
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Security External Defense Total Armed Forces
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Security External Defense Total International Disputes
Foreign Policy (6)
CVA - Conflict
National USAID and
Vulnerability Security External Defense Arms embargo
Government Tulane
Analysis (24), p. 12
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Security External Defense War
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Security External Defense Cross-border conflict
Country Risk
Guide (23)
Standard & Poor's

Private Standard & Poor Security External Defense Internal and external security risks
Ratings Group
(3), p. 225
CRG - Control
Private CRG Ratings Security External Defense Border conflict/border war
Risks Group (18), p. 373
CRG - Control
Private CRG Ratings Security External Defense Possibility of strike
Political Risk
Private IHS Energy Group Ratings and Security External Defense War and external threat
Rankings Index (14), p. 367
Academic, Stability Formal Rules,
Public service delivery: Is public service delivery progressively
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Governance Institutions, &
deteriorating or improving?
Tank Framework (SAF) Processes (29)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning Formal Rules,
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Institutions, & Justice and the rule of law
Tank for Preventive Processes
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning Formal Rules,
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Institutions, & Corruption
Tank for Preventive Processes
Policy (13)
Academic, CAST - Conflict Formal Rules,
Increase in levels of corruption and illicit transactions among the
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance Institutions, &
general populace
Tank System Tool Processes (10)
Academic, CAST - Conflict Formal Rules, Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance Institutions, & armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens,
Tank System Tool Processes such as pension payments (10)
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance Institutions, & Massive and endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites
Resistance of ruling elites to transparency, accountability and
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance Institutions, &
political representation
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance Institutions, & Fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines
Academic, FAST Analytical Formal Rules,
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance Institutions, & Inadequate democratic political institutions
Tank Pakistan Processes (25)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance Institutions, & Widespread corruption, clientelism and nepotism
Weak democratic and federal structure also after the elections
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance Institutions, &
October 2002
Weak central state power in tribal areas of North-West Frontier
Province (NWFP) and Balochistan
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance Institutions, & Widespread corruption in traditional parties
Unbalanced public expenditures in favor of the military (nuclear
armament)
Academic, PITF - Political Formal Rules,
NGO, & Think U Maryland Instability Task Governance Institutions, & Adverse regime change: Scaled collapse of democratic institutions
Tank Force Processes (19)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
Academic, Futures for Global Formal Rules,
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Governance Institutions, & Absence of the rule of law
for Research
Tank Global Early Processes
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic, Formal Rules,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Institutions, & Unwillingness to effectively govern: Abuses of power
and Early
Tank Processes
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Institutions, & Mismanagement: Corruption
and Early
Tank Processes
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Institutions, & Ethnicity: Institutionalized persecution
and Early
Tank Processes
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Institutions, & Ethnicity: Language laws
and Early
Tank Processes
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Institutions, & Integrity of elections: Electoral fraud
and Early
Tank Processes
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Institutions, & Government policy: New discriminatory policies
and Early
Tank Processes
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Institutions, & Government policy: Supporters and opposition groups
and Early
Tank Processes
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International Formal Rules,
Related
and Regional UNDP Governance Institutions, & Weakness of administrative systems
Development
Organization Processes
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
Related
and Regional UNDP Governance Institutions, & Political corruption
Development
Analysis (26)
International CAF- Conflict Formal Rules,
and Regional World Bank Analysis Governance Institutions, & Political instability: Transformation of state structure
Organization Framework Processes (32)
and Regional World Bank Analysis Governance Institutions, & Political instability: Breakdown of law and order
and Regional World Bank Analysis Governance Institutions, & Governance and political institutions
and Regional World Bank Analysis Governance Institutions, & Stability of political institutions
REWS SEE
International Regional Early Formal Rules,
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Institutions, & Degree of Freedom of the Regime in Terms of Religious Activities
Organization for Southeastern Processes
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
International Regional Early Formal Rules,
Types of Currupt Practices and Spread of Corruption Assessed by
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Institutions, &
Citizens
Organization for Southeastern Processes
Europe (27)
DAC -
International Development Formal Rules,
Change in internal distribution of power including access to
and Regional OECD Assistance Governance Institutions, &
governmental power and privileges
Organization Committee Processes
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Governance Institutions, & Shifts in internal control of central authority including the military
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Governance Institutions, & Problems in managing transition and rapid change
Guidelines (20)
Are there proper checks and balances in the political system?

International EC Checklist for Formal Rules,
European Respect of the Constitution, ability of the Parliament and the
and Regional Root Causes of Governance Institutions, &
Commission judiciary to check on the executive, devolution of powers and ability
Organization Conflict Processes
of regional authorities (if any) to counterbalance central power…
(8)
International EC Checklist for Formal Rules, Is corruption widespread? Overall level of corruption, existence of
European
and Regional Root Causes of Governance Institutions, & anti-corruption programs, widespread bribery in bureaucracies,
Commission
Organization Conflict Processes collusion between private sector and civil servants
(8)
Are religious and cultural rights respected? Punition by law of
International EC Checklist for Formal Rules,
European religious, ethnic or cultural discrimination, recognition of minority
and Regional Root Causes of Governance Institutions, &
Commission languages e.g. in education, definition of the state with no reference
Organization Conflict Processes
to a dominant religious/cultural identity (8)
Early Warning State and institutions: States in the process of failure are more
Analysis for susceptible to violent conflict. The key question is whether a state is
Clarke and Humanitarian moving towards failure and is therefore increasingly incapable
and Regional Governance Institutions, &
UNOCHA Preparedness and (through formal and/or informal structures) of repressing, mediating
Conflict or brokering between the varying interests that could result in
Prevention violent conflict. (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for
Clarke and Humanitarian States and institutions: Unequal access to the state’s institutions
and Regional Governance Institutions, &
UNOCHA Preparedness and and/or the perception of high level corruption.
Conflict
Prevention (5)
International CPN - Conflict Formal Rules,
and Regional EU Prevention Governance Institutions, & Non-democratic and ineffective governance
Organization Network Processes (11), p. 30
HEWS -
Humanitarian
and Regional UNOCHA Governance Institutions, & Decline in the rule of law
Early Warning
System (1), pp. 208-209
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry Formal Rules,
National
for Economic Spelten Model Governance Institutions, & Legitimacy of state institutions
Government
Cooperation and Processes
Conflict Formal Rules,
National
UK DFID Assessment Governance Institutions, & Weakly institutionalised/ unrepresentative political system
Government
Guidelines Processes (12)
National
UK DFID Assessment Governance Institutions, & Corruption
Government
National
UK DFID Assessment Governance Institutions, & Weak political parties
Government
National
UK DFID Assessment Governance Institutions, & Flawed election processes
Government
CIFP - Country Formal Rules,
Indicators for Governance Institutions, & Level of Democracy
Foreign Policy Processes (6)
CIFP - Country Formal Rules,
Indicators for Governance Institutions, & Corruption Score
Foreign Policy Processes (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility Formal Rules,
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Governance Institutions, & Quality of public service/ government effectiveness
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking Processes
System (28)
C/FACTS -
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Governance Institutions, & % of population experiencing political discrimination
Government DCHA/CMM
System (28)
C/FACTS -
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Governance Institutions, & Corruption
Government DCHA/CMM
System (28)
C/FACTS -
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Governance Institutions, & Extent of rule of law/protection of property rights
Government DCHA/CMM
System (28)
CVA - Conflict Formal Rules,
National USAID and
Vulnerability Governance Institutions, & Democratic institutions
Government Tulane
Analysis Processes (24), p. 12
ICRG -
Formal Rules,
International
Private PRS Group Governance Institutions, & Legislative strength
Country Risk
Processes
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Formal Rules,
International
Private PRS Group Governance Institutions, & Contract viability
Country Risk
Processes
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Formal Rules,
International
Private PRS Group Governance Institutions, & Profits repatriation
Country Risk
Processes
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Formal Rules,
International
Private PRS Group Governance Institutions, & Payment delays
Country Risk
Processes
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Formal Rules,
International
Private PRS Group Governance Institutions, & Corruption
Country Risk
Processes
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Formal Rules,
International
Private PRS Group Governance Institutions, & Law and order
Country Risk
Processes
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Formal Rules,
International
Private PRS Group Governance Institutions, & Democratic accountability
Country Risk
Processes
Guide (23)
Formal Rules,
International Risk
Private International Risk Governance Institutions, & Regulatory
approach
Processes (16)
Formal Rules,
International Risk
Private International Risk Governance Institutions, & Legal
approach
Processes (16)
Formal Rules,
International Risk Risks related to the confiscation, expropriation or nationalization of
Private International Risk Governance Institutions, &
approach assets
Processes (16)
Formal Rules,
International Risk
Private International Risk Governance Institutions, & Government interference
approach
Processes (16)
Formal Rules,
International Risk
Private International Risk Governance Institutions, & Corruption
approach
Processes (16)
HRRP - Historical Formal Rules,
Fractionalization of the political spectrum and the power of these
Private BERI Research Ratings Governance Institutions, &
factions
Package Processes (4)
Private BERI Research Ratings Governance Institutions, & Policy continuity
Private BERI Research Ratings Governance Institutions, & Long-term loans and enforceability of contracts
Private BERI Research Ratings Governance Institutions, & Legal framework (for financial markets)
Formal Rules,
EIU - Economist CRS - Country
Private Governance Institutions, & Institutional effectiveness
Intelligence Unit Risk Service
Processes (7), p. 123
Formal Rules,
Private Governance Institutions, & Transparency/fairness
Formal Rules,
Private Governance Institutions, & Corruption
Formal Rules,
Private Governance Institutions, & Regulatory environment
Formal Rules,
Standard & Poor's
Private Standard & Poor Governance Institutions, & Form of government and adaptability of political institutions
Ratings Group
Formal Rules,
CRG - Control
Private CRG Ratings Governance Institutions, & Campaign issues
Risks Group
Academic,
CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Social Well-Being Health High infant mortality rates
Carrying Capacity
Tank (17)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- High fertility and age dependency (1990 level and 1980-1990
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Social Well-Being Health
Carrying Capacity change)
Tank (17)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Social Well-Being Health Failure to meet basic human needs
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Social Well-Being Health Issues relating access to social services: health
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Social Well-Being Health Social Assistance
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Social Well-Being Health Social Benefits
Europe (27)
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian
and Regional UNOCHA Social Well-Being Health Low and worsening levels of human development
Early Warning
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian
and Regional UNOCHA Social Well-Being Health Deterioration of food security
Early Warning
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Health Access to Improved Water Source
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Health Access to Sanitation
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Health Life Expectancy
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Health Infant Mortality Rate
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Health Maternal Mortality Rate
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Health HIV/AIDS
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Health Infant mortality rate
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Health Change in % of population living with HIV/AIDS
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Health DPT and measles immunization rates
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Health % of population with access to improved water supplies/ sanitation
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Health Male/female life expectancy ratio
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Health Deviance from GDP-predicted infant mortality
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
Academic, Stability Rule of law and human rights: Are human rights violated and the
Justice &
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Human Rights rule of law arbitrarily applied or suspened, or is a basic rule of law
Reconciliation
Tank Framework (SAF) established and are violations ceasing? (29)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Justice &
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Human Rights Human rights
Reconciliation
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Justice &
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Human Rights Criminalization
Reconciliation
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
Justice & Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Human Rights
Reconciliation Widespread Violation of Human Rights
Justice & Outbreak of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Human Rights
Reconciliation against innocent civilians
Widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including
Academic, CAST - Conflict those of individuals, groups or cultural institutions (e.g., harassment
Justice &
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Human Rights of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for
Reconciliation
Tank System Tool political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or
cultural persecution) (10)
Justice & Human rights violations especially against women (high rate of
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Human Rights
Reconciliation honor killings)
Tank Pakistan (25)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Justice &
NGO, & Think Interdependence Human Rights Violation of human rights
for Research Reconciliation
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Justice &
NGO, & Think Interdependence Human Rights Absence of respect for human life and cultural rights
for Research Reconciliation
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Justice &
NGO, & Think FEWER Human Rights Unwillingness to effectively govern: Human rights abuses
and Early Reconciliation
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Human Rights Human rights: Freedom of expression
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Human Rights Human rights: Freedom of movement
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Human Rights Human rights: Freedom of religion
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Human Rights Human rights: Freedom of assembly
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Human Rights Government policy: Mass human rights abuses
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Justice &
and Regional UNDP Human Rights Protection of human rights
Development Reconciliation
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Justice &
and Regional UNDP Human Rights Human rights abuses
Development Reconciliation
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Justice & Issues that may be perceived as threatening the well being of
and Regional UNDP Human Rights
Development Reconciliation certain groups: trafficking
Organization
Analysis (26)
Justice &
and Regional World Bank Analysis Human Rights Human rights status
Reconciliation
REWS SEE
Justice &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Human Rights Guarantees of Basic Minority Rights
Reconciliation
Europe (27)
DAC -
Justice &
and Regional OECD Assistance Human Rights A rising sense of indignity, and human rights violations.
Reconciliation
Guidelines (20)
Are other basic human rights respected? Prosecution of human

rights violations (torture, illegal detention), gender equality, freedom
European Justice & of private practices (dress codes, private life etc.), adherence to and
and Regional Root Causes of Human Rights
Commission Reconciliation implementation of commitments under international human rights
treaties and conventions, effective operation of human rights
monitoring by NGOs and/or international organizations
(8)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International Human rights and civil liberties: Rights violations should be viewed
Clarke and Humanitarian Justice &
and Regional Human Rights in their socio-political context to assess whether they are in fact
UNOCHA Preparedness and Reconciliation
Organization contributing to instability and the probability of a wider conflict.
Conflict
Prevention (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International
Clarke and Humanitarian Justice & Human rights and civil liberties: Are rights and civil liberties
and Regional Human Rights
UNOCHA Preparedness and Reconciliation violations increasing and is a particular group being singled out?
Organization
Conflict
Prevention (5)
Justice & Independent Rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment
Reconciliation Judiciary due process consistent with international norms and practices
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Justice & Independent
NGO, & Think FEWER Judiciary: institutional bias
and Early Reconciliation Judiciary
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Justice & Independent
and Regional UNDP Matters relating to the judiciary
Development Reconciliation Judiciary
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Justice & Independent
and Regional UNDP Corrupt judiciary
Development Reconciliation Judiciary
Organization
Analysis (26)
Justice & Independent
and Regional World Bank Analysis Equity of law/judicial system
Reconciliation Judiciary
How strong is the judicial system? Independence and effectiveness
European Justice & Independent of the judiciary, equality of all citizens before the law, effective
and Regional Root Causes of
Commission Reconciliation Judiciary possibility to undertake legal action against state decisions,
enforcement of legal decisions (8)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International
Clarke and Humanitarian Justice & Independent States and institutions: General failure could in some cases be
and Regional
UNOCHA Preparedness and Reconciliation Judiciary precipitated by the decay of criminal/judicial processes
Organization
Conflict
Prevention (5)
Conflict
National Justice & Independent
UK DFID Assessment Lack of independent judiciary
Government Reconciliation Judiciary
Guidelines (12)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Inflation &
NGO, & Think Interdependence Economics Higher domestic prices (Consumer Price Index)
for Research Unemployment
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Inflation & Increased unemployment and disguised unemployment: in rural and
NGO, & Think Interdependence Economics
for Research Unemployment urban slum areas
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Inflation &
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Internal Economic Stability: Degree of unemployment
and Early Unemployment
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Inflation &
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Internal Economic Stability: Inflation/ price stability
and Early Unemployment
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
Inflation &
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Youth unemployment
Unemployment
Inflation &
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Inflationary trends
Unemployment
Inflation &
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Employment and access to productive resources
Unemployment
REWS SEE
Inflation & General Public Readiness to Strike Indicators: Against
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics
Unemployment Unemployment, for Higher Salaries
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Inflation &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Monthly Real Basic Interest Rate
Unemployment
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Inflation &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Monthly Nominal Basic Interest Rate
Unemployment
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Inflation &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Consumer Price Index
Unemployment
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Inflation &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Inflation Expectations
Unemployment
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Inflation &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Number of Employed
Unemployment
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Inflation &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Number of Job Vacancies Announced by Labour Offices
Unemployment
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
International Regional Early Number of Unemployed Indicators: per Job Vacancy, Enrolled in
Inflation &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Training and Retraining Courses, Receiving Unemployment
Unemployment
Organization for Southeastern Benefits and Compensations, by Age
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Inflation & Number of Employed Indicators: by Gender, by Length of
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics
Unemployment Employment, by Age
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Inflation &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Inflation
Unemployment
Europe (27)
DAC -
Inflation &
and Regional OECD Assistance Economics Large proportion of unemployed youth.
Unemployment
Guidelines (20)
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian Inflation &
and Regional UNOCHA Economics Price of basic food items
Early Warning Unemployment
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
Conflict
National Inflation &
UK DFID Assessment Economics Economic decline: unemployment
Government Unemployment
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
National Inflation &
UK DFID Assessment Economics Economic decline: inflation
Government Unemployment
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
National Canadian Gov't & Inflation &
Indicators for Economics Inflation
Government Carleton U Unemployment
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID, Inflation &
Alert Consultation Economics Three-year inflation rate
Government DCHA/CMM Unemployment
and Tracking
System (28)
ICRG -
International Inflation &
Private PRS Group Economics Unemployment
Country Risk Unemployment
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International Inflation &
Private PRS Group Economics Annual inflation rate
Country Risk Unemployment
Guide (23)
HRRP - Historical
Inflation &
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Communications and monetary inflation
Unemployment
Package (4)
EIU - Economist CRS - Country Inflation &
Private Economics Monetary policy
Intelligence Unit Risk Service Unemployment (7), p. 123
Standard & Poor's Inflation &

Private Standard & Poor Economics Monetary policy and inflation pressures
Ratings Group Unemployment
(3), p. 225
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Security Internal Stability Violence, cohesion, and internally displaced people/refugees
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Security Internal Stability History of armed conflict and structural instability
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Security Internal Stability Non-state controlled armed forces
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
Forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or
Academic, CAST - Conflict targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages,
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Security Internal Stability disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can
Tank System Tool spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems, both within
and between countries (10)
Academic, CAST - Conflict Emergence of rival militias, guerilla forces or private armies in an
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Security Internal Stability armed struggle or protracted violent campaigns against state
Tank System Tool security forces (10)
Academic, CAST - Conflict Military or Para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Security Internal Stability state at risk by outside armies, states, identity groups or entities that
Tank System Tool affect the internal balance of power or resolution of the conflict
(10)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security Internal Stability Tribal areas in NWFP as retreats for Taliban and Al Qaida fighters
Tank Pakistan (25)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security Internal Stability High level of political violence (particularly ethnic/sectarian)
Tank Pakistan (25)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security Internal Stability 1999 Kargil Crisis
Tank Pakistan (25)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Security Internal Stability Sectarian conflicts in different parts of the country
Tank Pakistan (25)
Academic, PITF - Political
Ethnic and revolutionary war episodes: Scaled number of rebel
NGO, & Think U Maryland Instability Task Security Internal Stability
combatants or activists
Tank Force (19)
Ethnic and revolutionary war episodes: Scaled annual number of
fatalities related to fighting
Tank Force (19)
Ethnic and revolutionary war episodes: Scaled portion of country
affected by fighting
Tank Force (19)
NGO, & Think U Maryland Instability Task Security Internal Stability Genocide/politicide episodes: Scaled annual number of deaths
Tank Force (19)
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Insurgent recruitment
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Recruits through social network
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Removing insurgents
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Desired time to remove insurgents
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Removed insurgents
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Propensity to commit violence
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Violent incident intensity
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Incident intensity
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Relative strength of violent incidents
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Effect of incidents on anti-regime messages
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Message effect strength
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Perceived intensity of anti-regime messages
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Effect of anti-regime messages on recruitment
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Propensity to be recruited
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Normal propensity to be recruited
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Effect of incidents on anti-regime messages
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Frequency of anti-regime messages
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Perceived intensity of anti-regime messages
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Relative frequency of anti-regime messages
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Effect of anti-regime messages on recruitment
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Security Internal Stability Recruits through social network
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Security Internal Stability Political conflicts and violence
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Security Internal Stability Insurgency
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Security Internal Stability Internal war
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Military and security: Growing illicit arms trade
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Military and security: Number of private security firms
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Inability to effectively govern: Incomplete territorial control
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Domestic insecurity: Inability, on the part of the state, to deliver
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability
and Early security and stability
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Security forces on the streets
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Domestic insecurity: Inability to maintain territorial control
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Domestic insecurity: Imposition of curfews
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Ethnicity: Ethnic tension/violence
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Ethnicity: Territorial disputes
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Levels of violence: Political assassinations
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Levels of violence: Political violence
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Security Internal Stability Levels of violence: Ethnic violence
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Security Internal Stability Issues relating to the security of the state and people
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Security Internal Stability Rebel forces
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
and Regional World Bank Analysis Security Internal Stability History of conflict
and Regional World Bank Analysis Security Internal Stability Active regional conflicts
and Regional World Bank Analysis Security Internal Stability Culture or tradition of violence
and Regional World Bank Analysis Security Internal Stability Security of civilians
and Regional World Bank Analysis Security Internal Stability Regional conflicts
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Security Internal Stability Increased insecurity and perceived threats.
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Security Internal Stability Changes in the degree of internal state cohesion
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Security Internal Stability Shipments of (small) arms
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Security Internal Stability Legacy of violence
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
and Regional OECD Assistance Security Internal Stability Arms proliferation and irregular fighters
Guidelines (20)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International Security: The overall level of security is a fourth critical factor,
and Regional Security Internal Stability consisting of individual indicators that could include the systematic
Organization caching of weapons (for example in Rwanda), or flow).
Conflict
Prevention (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International
Clarke and Humanitarian Security: the type of small arms available could be a significant
and Regional Security Internal Stability
UNOCHA Preparedness and indicator: are they weapons of war or for personal protection?
Organization
Conflict
Prevention (5)
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian Presence of significant populations at risk from the state or from
and Regional UNOCHA Security Internal Stability
Early Warning other demographic groups
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian
and Regional UNOCHA Security Internal Stability Arms inflows
Early Warning
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National
for Economic Spelten Model Security Internal Stability Collectively perceived threats
Government
Cooperation and
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National
for Economic Spelten Model Security Internal Stability Increasing use of force and violence
Government
Cooperation and
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Security Internal Stability Security forces have limited capacity and are weakly controlled
Government
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Security Internal Stability Legacy of past conflict
Government
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Security Internal Stability Proliferation of light weapons
Government
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Security Internal Stability Armed Conflicts (Conflict Intensity Level)
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Security Internal Stability Risk of Ethnic Rebellion
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Security Internal Stability Military/Security Alliances
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Security Internal Stability Intensity of most severe ongoing armed conflict
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Security Internal Stability Proportion of area affected by ethnic or revolutionary war
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
CVA - Conflict
National USAID and
Vulnerability Security Internal Stability Recent violence
Government Tulane
CVA - Conflict
National USAID and
Vulnerability Security Internal Stability History of Peace
Government Tulane
CVA - Conflict
National USAID and
Vulnerability Security Internal Stability Cease fire
Government Tulane
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Security Internal Stability Civil war
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Security Internal Stability Terrorism
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Security Internal Stability Civil disorder
Country Risk
Guide (23)
International Risk
Private International Risk Security Internal Stability National security, including crime and terrorism
approach (16)
HRRP - Historical
Societal conflict involving demonstrations, strikes, and street
Private BERI Research Ratings Security Internal Stability
violence.
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Instability as perceived by nonconstitutional changes,
Private BERI Research Ratings Security Internal Stability
assassinations, and guerrilla wars.
Package (4)
Private Security Internal Stability War
Intelligence Unit Risk Service (7), p. 123
Private Security Internal Stability Politically motivated violence
CRG - Control
Private CRG Ratings Security Internal Stability Violent/terrorist groups
CRG - Control
Private CRG Ratings Security Internal Stability Terrorism
CRG - Control
Private CRG Ratings Security Internal Stability War conditions
Political Risk
Private IHS Energy Group Ratings and Security Internal Stability Civil and labor unrest
Political Risk
Private IHS Energy Group Ratings and Security Internal Stability Internal violence
Academic, Stability
International Regional setting: Are destabilizing regional cross-border
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Cross-cutting
Influence interventions increasing or reducing?
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
International
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting Intervening variables
Influence
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
International
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting International linkage
Influence
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
International
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting External support and intervention
Influence
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
International
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting Regional and country specific variables
Influence
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
International Intervention by donors, especially if there is a tendency towards
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Cross-cutting
Influence over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- International
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Cross-cutting Membership in the Soviet military alliance
Carrying Capacity Influence
Tank (17)
International Indian sub-continent gets divided into the predominantly Hindu
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting
Influence state India and the Muslim state Pakistan (1947), two-nation theory
Tank Pakistan (25)
International 4 wars with India: 1947-48 (Kashmir), 1965 (Kashmir), 1971 (loss of
Influence East Pakistan), 1999 Kargil Crisis
Tank Pakistan (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Longstanding conflict with India
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Fundamentalist groups support the Taliban and the Kashmir fighters
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
Academic, FAST Analytical Polarization between Iran, Shia groups in Pakistan and Northern
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Alliance versus Saudi-Arabia, Sunni groups in Pakistan and the
Influence
Tank Pakistan Taliban (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Israel-Palestine conflict boosts the militant Muslim movement
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
International Pakistan cooperates with the US in the fight against terrorism since
Influence September 2001
Tank Pakistan (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Further discussions between India and Pakistan also about Kashmir
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting External pressure to restore democracy
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Domestic support of foreign Islamists (Kashmir)
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting International intervention along the Afghan border
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Deteriorating situation in Afghanistan
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
International
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Dependence on US in the fight against terrorism
Influence
Tank Pakistan (25)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute International
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting Increased debt service ratio (Indicator of external debt)
for Research Influence
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning International
NGO, & Think FEWER Cross-cutting External intervention: External support for opposition groups
and Early Influence
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related International
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting International relations
Development Influence
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting Political interests of neighboring countries
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting Support from Diaspora
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting Influence of IFIs
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting Resources shared with regional neighbors
Organization
Analysis (26)
International
and Regional World Bank Analysis Cross-cutting Role of diasporas
Influence
DAC -
International Interventions of neighboring states, regional powers and
and Regional OECD Assistance Cross-cutting
Influence organizations
Guidelines (20)
How stable is the region’s geopolitical situation? Relations with the

European International country’s neighbours, pending border issues, dependency of the
and Regional Root Causes of Cross-cutting
Commission Influence country on unstable neighbours for vital assets (e.g. access to sea
or water), effectiveness of regional conflict-resolution mechanisms
(8)
Regional/international dimension: This factor addresses how a
Early Warning crisis might spill over regionally and in turn how external actors may
Analysis for influence the development of a crisis (both positively and
International
Clarke and Humanitarian International negatively). Are other states in the region potentially destabilized by
and Regional Cross-cutting
UNOCHA Preparedness and Influence unrest and are they likely to ‘intervene’ whether covertly or overtly?
Organization
Conflict Even where well intentioned, international involvement can arguably
Prevention have negative consequences where security guarantees are
offered in support of peace agreements. (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International Regional/international dimension: The prospect of international
Clarke and Humanitarian International
and Regional Cross-cutting sanctions can create an incentive to accelerate the pace of
UNOCHA Preparedness and Influence
Organization violence, before the international community is able to act.
Conflict
Prevention (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International Regional/international dimension: Insurgent groups may have
Clarke and Humanitarian International
and Regional Cross-cutting camps in neighboring countries as a platform for operations,
UNOCHA Preparedness and Influence
Organization caching weapons and training personel.
Conflict
Prevention (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for Regional/international dimension: Diaspora communities have
International
Clarke and Humanitarian International historically provided a ready source of funds to fuel conflict. Small
UNOCHA Preparedness and Influence arms have spilled across borders with enormous military and
Organization
Conflict human costs, threatening security within and between states.
Prevention (5)
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian International
and Regional UNOCHA Cross-cutting Significant shifts in the level of external investment or assistance
Early Warning Influence
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
HEWS -
International
and Regional UNOCHA Cross-cutting External actions/interventions
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
HEWS -
International
and Regional UNOCHA Cross-cutting Changes in geographical region/neighbouring countries
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National International
for Economic Spelten Model Cross-cutting External influence
Government Influence
Cooperation and
Conflict
National International Unstable regional/international context (e.g. political changes in
UK DFID Assessment Cross-cutting
Government Influence neighbouring countries)
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
UK DFID Assessment Cross-cutting Weak and uncoordinated international engagement
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
UK DFID Assessment Cross-cutting Destabilising role by diaspora populations
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
National Canadian Gov't & International
Indicators for Cross-cutting UN Organizations
Government Carleton U Influence
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
National Canadian Gov't & International
Indicators for Cross-cutting Multipurpose and Miscellaneous Organizations
Government Carleton U Influence
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID, International
Alert Consultation Cross-cutting Asylum requests, as % of population
Government DCHA/CMM Influence
and Tracking
System (28)
ICRG -
International International
Private PRS Group Cross-cutting Foreign pressures
Country Risk Influence
Guide (23)
International Risk International
Private International Risk Cross-cutting Diplomatic
approach Influence (16)
HRRP - Historical
International
Private BERI Research Ratings Cross-cutting Dependence on and/or importance to a major hostile power.
Influence
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
International
Private BERI Research Ratings Cross-cutting Attitude: foreign investors and profits
Influence
Package (4)
EIU - Economist CRS - Country International
Private Cross-cutting International disputes
Intelligence Unit Risk Service Influence (7), p. 123
EIU - Economist CRS - Country International
Private Cross-cutting Global environment
Intelligence Unit Risk Service Influence (7), p. 123
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning Local Dispute
Justice & Lack of tools and institutions of conflict prevention, management,
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Resolution
Reconciliation and resolution.
Tank for Preventive Mechanisms
Policy (13)
Academic, PITF - Political Local Dispute
Justice & Regime change: Contested dissolution of federated states or
NGO, & Think U Maryland Instability Task Resolution
Reconciliation secession of a substantial area of a state by extrajudicial means
Tank Force Mechanisms (19)
Academic, SDM - State Local Dispute
Justice &
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Resolution Appeasement rate
Reconciliation
Tank Dynamics Model Mechanisms (22)
Academic, SDM - State Local Dispute
Justice &
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Resolution Appeasement fraction
Reconciliation
Tank Dynamics Model Mechanisms (22)
DAC -
International Development Local Dispute
Justice & Absence of mechanisms for peaceful conciliation of different
and Regional OECD Assistance Resolution
Reconciliation interests within society
Organization Committee Mechanisms
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
Justice &
and Regional OECD Assistance Resolution Formal and informal channels of conflict management
Reconciliation
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
Justice & Conflicts between individuals and groups exist in every society and
and Regional OECD Assistance Resolution
Reconciliation have the potential to bring about positive change.
Guidelines (20)
Does the state arbitrate over tensions and disputes between

International EC Checklist for Local Dispute communities? Existence and effectiveness of mechanisms
European Justice &
and Regional Root Causes of Resolution arbitrating between conflicting parties (wisemen, elders,
Commission Reconciliation
Organization Conflict Mechanisms ombudsmen), political manipulation of ethnic/identity differences,
existence of regional forum for conflict prevention/resolution
(8)
International CPN - Conflict Local Dispute
Justice & Absence of opportunities for the peaceful conciliation of group
and Regional EU Prevention Resolution
Reconciliation interests
Organization Network Mechanisms (11), p. 30
Conflict Local Dispute
National Justice &
UK DFID Assessment Resolution Systems for managing conflict weakly developed
Government Reconciliation
Guidelines Mechanisms (12)
Conflict Local Dispute
National Justice & Failure of dispute resolution mechanisms/ decreasing legitimacy of
UK DFID Assessment Resolution
Government Reconciliation customary authorities
Guidelines Mechanisms (12)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- Number of ethnic groups that had historically enjoyed political
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Governance Local Governance
Carrying Capacity autonomy
Tank (17)
Academic, FAST Analytical Conflict about the political status of Karachi and other cities of
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance Local Governance Sindh where the Muttahida Quami Movement have fought for more
Tank Pakistan autonomy since 1986 (25)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Governance Local Governance National-local political linkages
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
HRRP - Historical
Private BERI Research Ratings Governance Local Governance Negative influences of regional political forces.
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Private BERI Research Ratings Governance Local Governance Local management and bureaucratic delays
Package (4)
Academic, Stability
Macroeconomic State of the Economy: Is there sharp or severe economic decline,
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Economics
Stability or is the economy growing?
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Economics Economic performance and wealth
Stability
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Economics Economic stability and performance
Stability
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
Academic, CAST - Conflict A pattern of progressive economic decline of the society as a whole
Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Economics as measured by per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates,
Stability
Tank System Tool poverty levels, business failures, and other economic measures
(10)
Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Economics Extreme social hardship imposed by economic austerity programs
Stability
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Economics Low GDP/capita
Carrying Capacity Stability
Tank (17)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Economics Economic growth problems
Carrying Capacity Stability
Tank (17)
Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Economics Ongoing economic crisis
Stability
Tank Pakistan (25)
Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Economics Economic performance
Stability
POFED - The
Academic, Claremont
Politics of Fertility Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think Graduate Economics GDP/capita
and Economic Stability
Tank University
Development
(22)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think Interdependence Economics Poor economic growth
for Research Stability
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Macroeconomic Increased international per-capita income disparities compared to
for Research Stability the average per-capita income in the world as a whole
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Macroeconomic Depreciated currency exchange rate (reflecting less of economic
for Research Stability strength)
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Macro-economic instability
and Early Stability
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Macroeconomic
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Food shortages
and Early Stability
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP Economics Economic policy
Development Stability
Organization
Analysis (26)
Macroeconomic
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Income per capita
Stability
Macroeconomic
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Economic growth
Stability
Macroeconomic
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Per capita income changes
Stability
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Deposits in Commercial Banks
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Domestic Credit
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Commercial Bank Reserves
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Speed of Privatization
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Sectors of Privatization
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Subjective Evaluation of the Financial Status of Households
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Income Expectations
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Income Level Indicators: Real, Nominal, Minimum
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Self-Evaluation Indicators: Job Security
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Commercial Bank Reserves
Stability
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Macroeconomic
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics GDP Growth By Sector (Agriculture, Industry and Services)
Stability
Europe (27)
DAC -
Macroeconomic
and Regional OECD Assistance Economics Economic decline
Stability
Guidelines (20)
How robust is the economy? Income dependency on a limited

European Macroeconomic number of sectors (e.g. one single agricultural product or industry or
and Regional Root Causes of Economics
Commission Stability remittance), capacity to react to natural disasters or international
conditions (f.i. massive swings in commodity prices)
(8)
Is policy framework conducive to macro-economic stability? Stability

European Macroeconomic of main macro-economic fundamentals (inflation, public deficit,
and Regional Root Causes of Economics
Commission Stability current accounts), ability to attract investment (both domestic and
FDI), implementation of policies negotiated with IFIs
(8)
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian Macroeconomic
and Regional UNOCHA Economics Worse economic decline than regional average
Early Warning Stability
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian Macroeconomic
and Regional UNOCHA Economics Level of livestock sales
Early Warning Stability
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
Conflict
National Macroeconomic
UK DFID Assessment Economics Economic decline: food security
Government Stability
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
UK DFID Assessment Economics Macro economic instability
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
UK DFID Assessment Economics Development of war economy
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
National Canadian Gov't & Macroeconomic
Indicators for Economics GDP Growth Rate
Government Carleton U Stability
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Economics GDP per Capita
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Economics Official Exchange Rate
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Economics Economic Organizations
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID, Macroeconomic
Alert Consultation Economics Three-year change in real GDP (PPP) per capita
Government DCHA/CMM Stability
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID, Macroeconomic
Alert Consultation Economics Number of days to start a business
Government DCHA/CMM Stability
and Tracking
System (28)
CVA - Conflict
National USAID and Macroeconomic
Vulnerability Economics Economic growth
Government Tulane Stability
CVA - Conflict
National USAID and Macroeconomic
Vulnerability Economics Surge in economy
Government Tulane Stability
ICRG -
International Macroeconomic
Private PRS Group Economics Consumer confidence
Country Risk Stability
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Private PRS Group Economics GDP per capita
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Private PRS Group Economics Real annual GDP growth
Guide (23)
International Risk Macroeconomic
Private International Risk Economics Economic
approach Stability (16)
Private International Risk Economics Labour
Private International Risk Economics Labour unrest
HRRP - Historical
Macroeconomic
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Labor cost/productivity
Stability
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Macroeconomic
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Professional services and contractors
Stability
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Macroeconomic
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Degree of privatization
Stability
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Macroeconomic
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Transportation
Stability
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Macroeconomic
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Partners
Stability
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Macroeconomic
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Economic growth
Stability
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Macroeconomic
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Short-term credit
Stability
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Macroeconomic
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Venture capital
Stability
Package (4)
EIU - Economist CRS - Country Macroeconomic
Private Economics Growth
Intelligence Unit Risk Service Stability (7), p. 123
EIU - Economist CRS - Country Macroeconomic
Private Economics Financial Structure
Intelligence Unit Risk Service Stability (7), p. 123
Standard & Poor's Macroeconomic

Private Standard & Poor Economics Degree of consensus on economic policy objectives
Ratings Group Stability
(3), p. 225
CRG - Control Macroeconomic
Private CRG Ratings Economics Economic stability
Risks Group Stability (18), p. 373
Political Risk
Macroeconomic
Private IHS Energy Group Ratings and Economics Economic instability
Stability
Political Risk
Macroeconomic
Private IHS Energy Group Ratings and Economics Energy vulnerability
Stability
Academic, CAST - Conflict Poverty &

Growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling,
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Economics Existence of
and capital flight
Tank System Tool Informal Economy
(10)
Academic, Poverty &

CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Economics Existence of Poverty and economic growth problems
Carrying Capacity
Tank Informal Economy
(17)
Academic, Poverty &

CCC - Conflict- Multiplicative interactions of poverty and low development level with
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Economics Existence of
Carrying Capacity high fertility, age dependency and rapid population growth.
(17)
Academic, FAST Analytical Poverty &

NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Economics Existence of Widespread poverty, dependency on agriculture
Tank Pakistan Informal Economy
(25)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
Academic, Futures for Global Poverty &
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Economics Existence of Absence of social security and welfare
for Research
Tank Global Early Informal Economy
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic, Poverty &
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Existence of Internal Economic Stability: Prevalence of poverty
and Early
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic, Poverty &
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Existence of Internal Economic Stability: Access to social security/welfare
and Early
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic, Poverty &
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Existence of Increasing poverty/ economic disparity
and Early
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International Poverty &
Related
and Regional UNDP Economics Existence of Issues relating to livelihoods and resources
Development
Organization Informal Economy
Analysis (26)
International CAF- Conflict Poverty &

and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Existence of Conflict-induced poverty
Organization Framework Informal Economy
(32)
REWS SEE
International Regional Early Poverty &
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Existence of Share of Food Expenditures in Household Budgets
Organization for Southeastern Informal Economy
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Basic Coping Strategies of Households in Cases of Insufficient
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Existence of
Incomes
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Existence of Household Production of Staple Foods
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Existence of Children's Allowances
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Existence of Self-Evaluation Indicators: Living Standards
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Existence of Delayed Social Assistance, Pensions, and Children's Allowances
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Existence of Poverty Levels
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Share of Employed in Additional Work in Services, Agriculture,
Crafts, Trade
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Distribution of Labour Force Engaged in Shadow Economy
Indicators: Demographic, Structural
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
International Regional Early Poverty & Statistic Data Indicators: Share of Government Spending, Share of
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Existence of Social Welfare Spending, Share of Public Consumption Based on
Organization for Southeastern Informal Economy Received Payments
Europe (27)
DAC -
International Development Poverty &
Impoverishment, rapid decline of access to basic services and
and Regional OECD Assistance Economics Existence of
livelihood opportunities.
Organization Committee Informal Economy
Guidelines (20)
HEWS -
International Poverty &
Humanitarian
and Regional UNOCHA Economics Existence of Value of goods in the second-hand market
Early Warning
Organization Informal Economy
System (1), pp. 208-209
Conflict Poverty &

National
UK DFID Assessment Economics Existence of Economic decline: trends in poverty
Government
Guidelines Informal Economy
(12)
Conflict Poverty &

National
UK DFID Assessment Economics Existence of Economic decline: access to social welfare
Government
(12)
Conflict Poverty &

National
UK DFID Assessment Economics Existence of Growth in black and parallel economies
Government
(12)
CIFP - Country Poverty &

Indicators for Economics Existence of Children in Labour Force
Foreign Policy Informal Economy
(6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility Poverty &
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Economics Existence of Poverty rate (% of population living on <$2 [PPP]/day)
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking Informal Economy
System (28)
ICRG -
Poverty &
International
Private PRS Group Economics Existence of Poverty
Country Risk
Informal Economy
Guide (23)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Regime
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Political exploitation of ethnic, cultural and identity differences
Effectiveness
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Regime
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Military expenditure
Effectiveness
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Regime
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Governance
Effectiveness
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Regime
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance Regime type
Effectiveness
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
Academic, CAST - Conflict Use of nationalistic political rhetoric by ruling elites, often in terms of
Regime
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance communal irredentism, (e.g., a "greater Serbia") or of communal
Effectiveness
Tank System Tool solidarity (e.g., "ethnic cleansing" or "defending the faith")
(10)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- Regime
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Governance Autocratic government
Carrying Capacity Effectiveness
Tank (17)
Regime Economic reforms and good governance principles as core policies
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance
Effectiveness of military government
Tank Pakistan (25)
Regime
NGO, & Think U Maryland Instability Task Governance Adverse regime change: Scaled failure of state authority
Effectiveness
Tank Force (19)
Regime Adverse regime change: Scaled violence associated with regime
NGO, & Think U Maryland Instability Task Governance
Effectiveness transition
Tank Force (19)
Regime Regime change: Revolutionary changes in political elites and the
Effectiveness mode of governance
Tank Force (19)
Regime Regime change: Complete or near-total collapse of central state
Effectiveness authority and the ability to govern.
Tank Force (19)
Regime
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Effect of regime resilience on recruitment
Effectiveness
Regime
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Regime resilience
Effectiveness
Regime
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Political capacity
Effectiveness
POFED - The
Academic, Claremont
Politics of Fertility Regime
NGO, & Think Graduate Governance Ratio of tax receipts government extracts to receipts expected
and Economic Effectiveness
Tank University
Development
(22)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Regime
NGO, & Think Interdependence Governance Growing ratio of military expenditure (GDP)
for Research Effectiveness
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Regime
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Military and security: Security expenditure
and Early Effectiveness
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Unwillingness to effectively govern: Constitutional abuses
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Inability to effectively govern: Systemic instability
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Inability to effectively govern: Unconsolidated power
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Regime Political opposition/Government oppression: Dissatisfaction with the
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance
and Early Effectiveness management of state affairs
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Political opposition/Government oppression: Unfulfilled expectations
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Regime Political opposition/Government oppression: General despair
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance
and Early Effectiveness (linked to justice, economic welfare, personal/family security)
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Internal political instability: Changing alliances
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Internal political instability: Politically motivated arrests
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Regime
and Regional UNDP Governance Governance: political behavior and leadership
Development Effectiveness
Organization
Analysis (26)
REWS SEE
Regime
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Perceptions for the development of the country
Effectiveness
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Regime
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Budget Deficit
Effectiveness
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Regime
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Governance Budget Surplus
Effectiveness
Europe (27)
DAC -
Regime
and Regional OECD Assistance Governance Lack of effective and legitimate government
Effectiveness
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
Regime
and Regional OECD Assistance Governance Political exploitation of cultural and other differences
Effectiveness
Guidelines (20)
What is the overall level of respect for national authorities?

International EC Checklist for Historical resentments against State authority, existence of
European Regime
and Regional Root Causes of Governance independentist movements, parties advocating for extreme
Commission Effectiveness
Organization Conflict solutions (revolutionary or reactionary) to perceived shortcomings,
perceived ability of the State to answer people’s needs
(8)
Early Warning
Analysis for Public discourse, ideological factors and elite behavior: Critical
International
Clarke and Humanitarian Regime issues include whether the pre -conditions necessary to divide
and Regional Governance
UNOCHA Preparedness and Effectiveness people and pit them against one another, exist. Are these divisions
Organization
Conflict being used instrumentally by political elites?
Prevention (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for Actors: In most if not all recent crises political actors have sought to
International
Clarke and Humanitarian Regime mobilize popular support (for example, by instrumentalizing
UNOCHA Preparedness and Effectiveness identity): the positioning of elites and their attempts to mobilize
Organization
Conflict support for war.
Prevention (5)
Early Warning
Analysis for Actors: The existence of actors capable of fomenting a crisis or
International
Clarke and Humanitarian Regime incapable of preventing one is a necessary cause of conflict. In
UNOCHA Preparedness and Effectiveness addition, a second question is whether a group capable of
Organization
Conflict undertaking violent action is crystallizing (or has already done so)?
Prevention (5)
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian Regime Number of months public sector employees, including soldiers,
and Regional UNOCHA Governance
Early Warning Effectiveness have not been paid.
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian Regime
and Regional UNOCHA Governance Changes in leadership
Early Warning Effectiveness
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian Regime
and Regional UNOCHA Governance Declarations of states of emergency
Early Warning Effectiveness
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National Regime
for Economic Spelten Model Governance Policy changes
Government Effectiveness
Cooperation and
Conflict
National Regime
UK DFID Assessment Governance High levels of military spending
Government Effectiveness
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
National Canadian Gov't & Regime
Indicators for Governance Regime Durability
Government Carleton U Effectiveness
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Governance Military Expenditure
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Governance Fraction of Regional Military Expenditure
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID, Regime
Alert Consultation Governance Number of coups d’état in last five years
Government DCHA/CMM Effectiveness
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
Alert Consultation Governance Government revenues, as percentage of GDP
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
Alert Consultation Governance % of GDP spent on military
and Tracking
System (28)
CVA - Conflict
National USAID and Regime
Vulnerability Governance Coup
Government Tulane Effectiveness
ICRG -
International Regime
Private PRS Group Governance Government unity
Country Risk Effectiveness
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Private PRS Group Governance Bureaucracy quality
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Private PRS Group Governance Budget balance as % of GDP
Guide (23)
International Risk Regime
Private International Risk Governance Political
approach Effectiveness (16)
International Risk Regime
Private International Risk Governance Public order
approach Effectiveness (16)
EIU - Economist CRS - Country Regime
Private Governance Change in government/pro-business orientation
Intelligence Unit Risk Service Effectiveness (7), p. 123
Private Governance Bureaucracy
Private Governance Fiscal policy
Standard & Poor's Regime

Private Standard & Poor Governance Political risk
Ratings Group Effectiveness
(3), p. 225
Standard & Poor's Regime

Private Standard & Poor Governance Fiscal policy and budgetary flexibility
Ratings Group Effectiveness
(3), p. 225
CRG - Control Regime
Private CRG Ratings Governance Political stability
Risks Group Effectiveness (18), p. 373
Political Risk
Regime
Private IHS Energy Group Ratings and Governance Regime instability
Effectiveness
Academic, Stability Legitimacy of the state: Is the state viewed primarily as illegitimate
Regime
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Governance or criminal, or as a legitimate actor respresentative of the people as
Legitimacy
Tank Framework (SAF) a whole? (29)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Regime
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Governance State/regime legitimacy
Legitimacy
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
Regime
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State
Legitimacy
Academic, CAST - Conflict Emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule in which
Regime
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Governance constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are
Legitimacy
Tank System Tool suspended or manipulated (10)
Regime
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance Religion used to support different military dictatorships since 1947
Legitimacy
Tank Pakistan (25)
Regime Overproportional and permanent influence of the military also in
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance
Legitimacy elected governments
Tank Pakistan (25)
Regime
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Governance Lack of legitimacy of political regime: military coup October 12, 1999
Legitimacy
Tank Pakistan (25)
Regime
NGO, & Think U Maryland Instability Task Governance Adverse regime change: Type of regime change
Legitimacy
Tank Force (19)
Regime Regime change: major and abrupt shifts away from more open,
Legitimacy electoral systems to more closed, authoritarian systems;
Tank Force (19)
Regime
NGO, & Think MIT Stability System Governance Regime legitimacy
Legitimacy
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Inability to effectively govern: Illegitimacy
and Early Legitimacy
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Governance Internal political instability: Purging of persons of doubtful loyalty
and Early Legitimacy
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
DAC -
Regime
and Regional OECD Assistance Governance Legitimate government and good governance
Legitimacy
Guidelines (20)
Conflict
National Regime
UK DFID Assessment Governance Political exploitation of ethnic/religious differences
Government Legitimacy
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
National Regime
UK DFID Assessment Governance Decreasing legitimacy of customary authorities
Government Legitimacy
Guidelines (12)
ICRG -
Private PRS Group Governance Popular support
Country Risk Legitimacy
Guide (23)
ICRG -
Private PRS Group Governance Military in politics
Country Risk Legitimacy
Guide (23)
HRRP - Historical
Regime
Private BERI Research Ratings Governance Restrictive (coercive) measures required to retain power.
Legitimacy
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Regime
Private BERI Research Ratings Governance Organization and strength of forces for a radical government.
Legitimacy
Package (4)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Resource
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Economics Resource management
Competition
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Resource
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Economics Competition over (scarce) resources (eg water)
Competition
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Resource
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Internal Economic Stability: Land distribution
and Early Competition
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Resource
and Regional UNDP Economics Flow of resources
Development Competition
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Resource
and Regional UNDP Economics Land issues
Development Competition
Organization
Analysis (26)
Resource
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Availability of natural resources
Competition
Resource
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Access to natural resources (including land)
Competition
Resource
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics In-country and cross-border competition over natural resources
Competition
DAC -
Resource
and Regional OECD Assistance Economics Competition over natural resources
Competition
Guidelines (20)
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National Resource
for Economic Spelten Model Economics Land reform
Government Competition
Cooperation and
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National Resource
for Economic Spelten Model Economics Resource competition
Cooperation and
Conflict
National Resource
UK DFID Assessment Economics Increasing competition over shared resources
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
National Canadian Gov't & Resource
Indicators for Economics People per Square Kilometre of Arable Land
Government Carleton U Competition
Foreign Policy (6)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnic tension and division
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
History of aggrieved communal groups based on recent or past
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Social Well-Being Social Tensions
injustices, which could date back centuries
Academic, CAST - Conflict Public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth,
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Social Well-Being Social Tensions status or power as evidenced in the emergence of "hate" radio,
Tank System Tool pamphleteering and stereotypical or nationalistic political rhetoric
(10)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- Heritage of forced ethnic incorporation, typically associated with
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Social Well-Being Social Tensions
Carrying Capacity persisting strong ethnic political discrimination
Tank (17)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnic and religious division between Sunni/Shia Moslems
Tank Pakistan (25)
Ethnic division between Mohajir and indigenous people in Sindh
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Social Well-Being Social Tensions
province
Tank Pakistan (25)
Academic, FAST Analytical Growing influence of Islamic parties on large parts of the society
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Social Well-Being Social Tensions starting from the mid-1990s (Talibanization) (especially through
Tank Pakistan madrassas and in politics) (25)
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Social Well-Being Social Tensions Increase of anti-American sentiments
Tank Pakistan (25)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnical discrimination and enforced exile for racial reasons
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Social Well-Being Social Tensions Religious oppression and enforced exile for religious reasons
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Social Well-Being Social Tensions Unstable social structure: Changing elites
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Social Well-Being Social Tensions Religious institutions: Antagonistic behavior
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Social Well-Being Social Tensions Religious institutions: Propaganda
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnicity: Historical rivalries
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnicity: Antagonistic behavior
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Issues that may be perceived as threatening the well being of
and Regional UNDP Social Well-Being Social Tensions
Development certain groups: migration
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related
and Regional UNDP Social Well-Being Social Tensions Social status of women should be considered
Development
Organization
Analysis (26)
and Regional World Bank Analysis Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnic dominance
and Regional World Bank Analysis Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnic cleavages
and Regional World Bank Analysis Social Well-Being Social Tensions Bridging social capital
and Regional World Bank Analysis Social Well-Being Social Tensions Group identity building
and Regional World Bank Analysis Social Well-Being Social Tensions Myth-making
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnic Relations
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Social Well-Being Social Tensions Willingness to Live in One Community with Different Ethnic Groups
Europe (27)
How good are relations between identity groups? Ability of major
identity groups to mix together, frequency of outbursts of
European racial/religious violence, perpetuation of negative stereotypes or
and Regional Root Causes of Social Well-Being Social Tensions
Commission mutual suspicions by collective memory and culture, existence and
effectiveness of reconciliation mechanisms (e.g. justice
commissions) (8)
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian
and Regional UNOCHA Social Well-Being Social Tensions Discrimination/targeting
Early Warning
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National
for Economic Spelten Model Social Well-Being Social Tensions Social awareness of conflict
Government
Cooperation and
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National
for Economic Spelten Model Social Well-Being Social Tensions Pressure for modernization
Government
Cooperation and
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National
for Economic Spelten Model Social Well-Being Social Tensions Polarization within society
Government
Cooperation and
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Social Well-Being Social Tensions Legacy of unresolved ethnic conflict
Government
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
National
UK DFID Assessment Social Well-Being Social Tensions Tensions over language, religion, ethnicity
Government
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnic Diversity Score
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Social Well-Being Social Tensions Religious Diversity Score
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Social Well-Being Social Tensions Cultural and religious freedoms
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Social Well-Being Social Tensions Religious tensions
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethnic tensions
Country Risk
Guide (23)
International Risk
Private International Risk Social Well-Being Social Tensions Social
approach (16)
HRRP - Historical
Mentality, including xenophobia, nationalism, corruption, nepotism,
Private BERI Research Ratings Social Well-Being Social Tensions
willingness to compromise, etc.
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Fractionalization by language, ethnic and/or religious groups and
Private BERI Research Ratings Social Well-Being Social Tensions
the power of these factions.
Package (4)
Private Social Well-Being Social Tensions Social unrest
Intelligence UnitRisk Service (7), p. 123
Political Risk
Private IHS Energy Group Ratings and Social Well-Being Social Tensions Ethno-linguistic factionalism
Academic, Stability Group-based hostilities: Is there a legacy of vengeance-seeking
Structural
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Cross-cutting group grievance and paranoia, or is there reconciliation and a
Inequalities
Tank Framework (SAF) reduction of hostilities? (29)
Academic, Stability
Structural Economic opportunites of groups: Is there uneven economic
NGO, & Think Clingendael Assessment Cross-cutting
Inequalities development along group lines, or are such disparities reducing?
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Structural
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting Structural and historical factors
Inequalities
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Structural
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting Non-economic social development and regional inequalities
Inequalities
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning
Structural
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting Social development and equality
Inequalities
Tank for Preventive
Policy (13)
Pressures deriving from group settlement patterns that affect the
Structural freedom to participate in common forms of human and physical
Inequalities activity, including economic productivity, travel, social interaction,
Tank System Tool
religious worship (10)
Pressures deriving from group settlement patterns and physical
Structural settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land,
Inequalities access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical
Tank System Tool
sites, and proximity to environmental hazards (10)
Structural
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Cross-cutting Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
Inequalities
Structural
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Cross-cutting Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
Inequalities
Structural Group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs,
Inequalities and economic status
Structural Group-based impoverishment as measured by poverty levels, infant
Inequalities mortality rates, education levels
Structural Rise of communal nationalism based on real or perceived group
Inequalities inequalities
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- Structural
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Cross-cutting Low industrialization/urbanization
Carrying Capacity Inequalities
Tank (17)
Academic,
CCC - Conflict- Structural
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Cross-cutting Economic discrimination
Carrying Capacity Inequalities
Tank (17)
Structural
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting Strong feudal traditions
Inequalities
Tank Pakistan (25)
Structural Unequal regional development: disagreement on Kalabagh dam
Inequalities project and oil and gas resources
Tank Pakistan (25)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute Structural
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting Stagnant per-capita income and unequal income distribution
for Research Inequalities
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning Structural
NGO, & Think FEWER Cross-cutting Internal Economic Stability: Pronounced social stratification
and Early Inequalities
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Cross-cutting Internal Economic Stability: Income disparities
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
NGO, & Think FEWER Cross-cutting Mismanagement: Disparity and inequality
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Structural
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting Social status of minorities
Development Inequalities
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Structural
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting Unequal access to health and education
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Structural
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting Economic status of women
Organization
Analysis (26)
CDA - Conflict-
International
Related Structural Economic inequality: degree of equity in the distribution of
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting
Development Inequalities economic assets and opportunities through society
Organization
Analysis (26)
Structural
and Regional World Bank Analysis Cross-cutting Social and economic cleavages
Inequalities
Structural
and Regional World Bank Analysis Cross-cutting Regional imbalances
Inequalities
Structural
and Regional World Bank Analysis Cross-cutting Differential social opportunities
Inequalities
Structural
and Regional World Bank Analysis Cross-cutting Income disparities
Inequalities
Structural
and Regional World Bank Analysis Cross-cutting Role of kindred groups outside country
Inequalities
REWS SEE
International Regional Early Household Income Per Capita Indicators: By Education Level
Structural
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Cross-cutting Reported, Types, Regularity, Place of Residence, Ethnic Group,
Inequalities
Organization for Southeastern Other Social Group
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
Structural
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Cross-cutting Relationship Between Incomes and Expenditure
Inequalities
Europe (27)
DAC -
Structural Social, economic and political exclusion of certain groups from
Inequalities mainstream development.
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
Structural Distorted distributional effects of development, and increasing
Inequalities horizontal inequalities.
Guidelines (20)
DAC -
Structural Imbalance of opportunities within society: Widening socio-economic
Inequalities disparities
Guidelines (20)
How are social welfare policies addressed? Overall level of literacy,
health, sanitation, development of safety nets & income policies (or,
European Structural by default, existence of alternative social mechanisms ensuring
Commission Inequalities local or family solidarity), correct anticipation of massive
demographic changes by public policies (especially urbanization
and youth unemployment) (8)
How are social inequalities tackled? Trend for poverty and
marginalization (especially in absolute terms), vulnerability of least-
International EC Checklist for favored segments of society, fairness of access to education, health
European Structural
and Regional Root Causes of Cross-cutting care, jobs, economic opportunities (including women and
Commission Inequalities
Organization Conflict minorities), existence of public policies addressing inequalities
among communities through land reform, quota systems, social
programs or others (8)
How are regional disparities tackled? Urban/rural gaps, existence of
European Structural regions lagging behind in terms of economic development or
Commission Inequalities particularly affected by lack of vital resources, redistributive policies
between regions (8)
Early Warning
Analysis for
International
Clarke and Humanitarian Structural Socio -economic conditions: underlying, long term root causes that
UNOCHA Preparedness and Inequalities make violent conflict more likely.
Organization
Conflict
Prevention (5)
International CPN - Conflict
Structural
and Regional EU Prevention Cross-cutting Imbalance of political, social, economic and cultural opportunities
Inequalities
Organization Network (11), p. 30
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian Structural
and Regional UNOCHA Cross-cutting High levels of disparities among demographic groups
Early Warning Inequalities
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National Structural
for Economic Spelten Model Cross-cutting Structural disparities
Government Inequalities
Cooperation and
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry
National Structural
for Economic Spelten Model Cross-cutting Structural adjustment
Cooperation and
Conflict
National Structural Widening economic disparities – growing Gini coefficient - based on
UK DFID Assessment Cross-cutting
Government Inequalities regional or ethnic divisions
Guidelines (12)
Conflict
National Structural
UK DFID Assessment Cross-cutting Social exclusion
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
National Canadian Gov't & Structural
Indicators for Cross-cutting Inequality Score
Government Carleton U Inequalities
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID, Structural
Alert Consultation Cross-cutting % of population experiencing economic discrimination
Government DCHA/CMM Inequalities
and Tracking
System (28)
CVA - Conflict
National USAID and Structural
Vulnerability Cross-cutting Colonial history
Government Tulane Inequalities
CVA - Conflict
Vulnerability Cross-cutting Inequality
CVA - Conflict
Vulnerability Cross-cutting Structure of economy
CVA - Conflict
Vulnerability Cross-cutting Minority repression
HRRP - Historical
Structural Social conditions, including population density and wealth
Private BERI Research Ratings Cross-cutting
Inequalities distribution.
Package (4)
Standard & Poor's Structural

Private Standard & Poor Cross-cutting The income and economic structure of the country
Ratings Group Inequalities
(3), p. 225
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning The Environment
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting & Natural Environmental disaster and general scarcity of natural resources
Tank for Preventive Resources
Policy (13)
An Internet Early
Academic, Warning The Environment
NGO, & Think SIPRI Indicators System Cross-cutting & Natural Problematic resources (eg oil, diamonds, and gold)
Tank for Preventive Resources
Policy (13)
Academic, The Environment
CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Cross-cutting & Natural Agricultural density (1990 level and 1980-90 change)
Carrying Capacity
Tank Resources (17)
Academic, FAST Analytical The Environment
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting & Natural Dependency on irrigation
Tank Pakistan Resources (25)
Academic, FAST Analytical The Environment
NGO, & Think Swisspeace Framework: Cross-cutting & Natural Growing poppy cultivation along the Afghan border
Tank Pakistan Resources (25)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
Academic, Futures for Global The Environment
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting & Natural Natural disasters
for Research
Tank Global Early Resources
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting & Natural Water pollution
for Research
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting & Natural Air pollution
for Research
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting & Natural Soil pollution
for Research
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting & Natural Erosion and loss of topsoil
for Research
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting & Natural Nuclear pollution
for Research
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Cross-cutting & Natural Ecological imbalance (as caused, for example, by deforestation)
for Research
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Cross-cutting & Natural Environmental: Agricultural failure
and Early
Tank Resources
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Cross-cutting & Natural Environmental: Pollution
and Early
Tank Resources
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Cross-cutting & Natural Environmental: Environmental disaster
and Early
Tank Resources
Response (9), p. 15
CDA - Conflict-
International The Environment
Related
and Regional UNDP Cross-cutting & Natural Environmental factors
Development
Organization Resources
Analysis (26)
How sustainable is the state’s environmental policy? Fairness of
International EC Checklist for The Environment management of natural resources (e.g. water), anticipation of
European
and Regional Root Causes of Cross-cutting & Natural possible internal or external conflicts over natural resources, risk of
Commission
Organization Conflict Resources serious environmental degradation (f.i. desertification) forcing
people into exile or threatening traditional ways of life (8)
BMZ - (German)
Federal Ministry The Environment
National
for Economic Spelten Model Cross-cutting & Natural Environmental conditions
Government
Cooperation and Resources
CIFP - Country The Environment
Indicators for Cross-cutting & Natural Rate of Deforestation
Foreign Policy Resources (6)
CIFP - Country The Environment
Indicators for Cross-cutting & Natural Freshwater Resources
Foreign Policy Resources (6)
CVA - Conflict The Environment
National USAID and
Vulnerability Cross-cutting & Natural Environmental damage
Government Tulane
Analysis Resources (24), p. 12
The Environment Environmental and other matters related to the specific local areas
International Risk
Private International Risk Cross-cutting & Natural or economic sectors in which a client’s operations are or will be
approach
Resources located (16)
Political Risk The Environment
Private IHS Energy Group Ratings and Cross-cutting & Natural Environmental activism
Rankings Index Resources (14), p. 367
Sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Economics Trade
investment or debt payments
NGO, & Think Fund for Peace Assessment Economics Trade Collapse or devaluation of the national currency
Academic,
CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Economics Trade Open trade in terms of exports and imports.
Carrying Capacity
Tank (17)
Academic, Foreign investment and dependence on primary products exports
CCC - Conflict-
NGO, & Think Jenkins and Bond Economics Trade (including non-fuel primary products specialization) both reduced
Carrying Capacity
Tank the risk of internal war. (17)
FUGI - GEWS
Tokyo NIRA -
National Institute
NGO, & Think Interdependence Economics Trade Decrease capital inflow and increased outflow
for Research
Tank Global Early
Advancement
Warning System
(21), pp. 167-169
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Trade International confidence: Capital flight
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Trade International confidence: Foreign debt
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Trade International confidence: Currency stability
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
FEWER - Forum
Academic,
on Early Warning
NGO, & Think FEWER Economics Trade International confidence: Foreign exchange reserves
and Early
Tank
Response (9), p. 15
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Trade Primary commodity exports
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Trade External debt management
and Regional World Bank Analysis Economics Trade Reliance on high-value primary commodities
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Trade Foreign Exchange Reserves
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Trade Foreign Assets
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Trade Foreign and Domestic Debt
Europe (27)
REWS SEE
and Regional UNDP SEE Warning System Economics Trade Balance of Payments
Europe (27)
HEWS -
International
Humanitarian
and Regional UNOCHA Economics Trade Price of key export commodities
Early Warning
Organization
System (1), pp. 208-209
Conflict
National Shift to destabilizing external investment patterns or destabilizing
UK DFID Assessment Economics Trade
Government international economic policies
Guidelines (12)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Economics Trade Foreign Direct Investment, Net Inflows
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Economics Trade Total Debt Service
Foreign Policy (6)
CIFP - Country
Indicators for Economics Trade Trade Openness
Foreign Policy (6)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Economics Trade Change in foreign investment
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
C/FACTS -
Conflict/Fragility
National USAID,
Alert Consultation Economics Trade Primary commodity exports/total exports
Government DCHA/CMM
and Tracking
System (28)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Economics Trade Total foreign debt as % of GDP
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Economics Trade Debt service as % of exports of goods and services
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Economics Trade Current account as % of exports of goods and services
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Economics Trade International liquidity as months of import cover
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Economics Trade Exchange rate stability as % change
Country Risk
Guide (23)
ICRG -
International
Private PRS Group Economics Trade Current account as % of GDP
Country Risk
Guide (23)
International Risk
Private International Risk Economics Trade Trade-related disputes
approach (16)
HRRP - Historical
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Trade Balance of payments
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Trade Currency convertibility
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Trade Foreign exchange generation
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Trade Accumulated international reserves
Package (4)
HRRP - Historical
Private BERI Research Ratings Economics Trade Foreign debt assessment
Package (4)
Private Economics Trade Exchange rate policy
Private Economics Trade Trade policy
Private Economics Trade Debt
Private Economics Trade Current Account
Private Economics Trade Liquidity
Standard & Poor's

Private Standard & Poor Economics Trade Integration in global trade and financial system
Ratings Group
(3), p. 225
Standard & Poor's

Private Standard & Poor Economics Trade Public and private debt service and debt service track record
Ratings Group
(3), p. 225
FEWER - Forum
Academic, Transitional
NGO, & Think FEWER Justice Government policy: Increased tension between regimes
Tank Mechanisms
Response (9), p. 15
Transitional
EIU - Economist CRS - Country Justice &
Private Justice Orderly political transfer
Intelligence Unit Risk Service Reconciliation
Mechanisms (7), p. 123
Transitional
Standard & Poor's Justice &
Private Standard & Poor Justice Orderliness of leadership succession
Ratings Group Reconciliation
Mechanisms (3), p. 225
z S
Matrix of Indicators
International & Regional Organization
National Gov't Models Academic, NGO, & Think Tank Models Private Models
Models
Canadian Gov't & Carleton U
Int'l and Regional Organization Total
Academic, NGO, & Think TankTotal

European Commission
National Governtment Total
Clingendael Institute
Control Risks Group

USAID DCHA/CMM
Clarke & UNOCHA
IHS Energy Group

Jenkins and Bond
International Risk
Standard & Poor

USAID & Tulane
Fund for Peace
Tokyo NIRA
Swisspeace
World Bank
PRS Group
UNDP SEE
U Maryland
Claremont
Grand Total
Private Total
UNOCHA
UK DFID
FEWER
OECD
UNDP
SIPRI
BERI
BMZ
MIT
EIU
EU
Pillars
Accountability 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 5 1 8 0 13
Civil-Military Relations 1 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 4
Security
External Defense 2 1 1 4 2 4 6 3 2 4 5 1 15 2 1 2 1 6 31
Internal Stability 2 3 3 2 3 13 2 5 2 2 5 16 12 3 21 3 4 3 4 50 2 3 2 2 1 3 13 92
Professionalism 0 0 0 0 0
Security Total 22 26 73 19 140
Civic Participation 1 2 3 2 8 2 1 4 2 5 8 3 25 1 1 12 2 1 7 3 1 1 29 1 1 63
Formal Rules, Institutions, &
Governance
Processes 1 2 4 4 1 12 2 1 3 3 2 2 1 4 18 1 7 5 2 6 1 1 23 4 1 4 5 7 1 22 75
Local Governance 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 6
Regime Effectiveness 1 3 1 3 1 9 3 1 2 1 3 3 13 1 9 1 1 3 4 1 1 4 25 1 3 1 2 2 2 11 58
Regime Legitimacy 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 2 12 2 2 4 19
Governance Total 31 58 92 40 221
Effective & Unbiased Police 0 1 2 3 6 1 1 2 1 1 2 10

Human Rights 0 2 1 1 3 1 1 9 1 6 3 2 1 2 15 0 24
Independent Judiciary 1 1 1 1 2 1 5 1 1 2 0 8
Local Dispute Resolution
Mechanisms 2 2 1 1 3 5 2 1 1 4 0 11
Transitional Justice
Mechanisms 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 3
Justice Total 3 25 24 4 56
Inflation & Unemployment 1 2 1 4 1 10 1 3 15 2 2 4 1 1 2 1 5 28
Macroeconomic Stability 4 3 2 2 11 2 1 1 11 2 3 20 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 15 8 1 2 2 3 3 1 20 66
Economics
Poverty & Existence of Informal

Economy 1 3 1 5 1 1 10 1 1 14 3 1 2 1 1 8 1 1 28
Resource Competition 2 1 1 4 1 2 3 6 1 2 3 0 13
Trade 3 1 2 6 4 1 3 8 4 2 2 1 9 5 5 1 6 2 19 42
Economic Total 26 63 39 45 177
Demographics 6 6 0 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 11 0 17
Social Well-Being
Displacement 1 2 1 4 1 2 3 2 3 3 1 9 0 16
Education 2 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 0 10
Health 6 6 12 1 2 2 5 2 1 3 0 20
Social Tensions 3 2 2 1 8 1 2 2 1 5 11 5 2 1 1 4 2 15 2 1 1 1 2 7 41
Social Total 35 20 42 7 104

Cross-Cutting
International Influence 1 2 3 1 7 4 1 1 5 3 1 15 1 1 1 1 4 13 1 22 2 2 1 1 6 50
Structural Inequalities 2 1 2 1 4 10 1 1 3 3 4 2 1 5 20 2 3 7 2 3 2 1 20 1 1 2 52
The Environment & Natural
Resources 1 2 1 4 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 7 17 1 1 2 25
Cross-Cutting Total 21 37 59 10 127

User Manual
Using the Matrix and Indicator Database
The Matrix
The categories are shown in the column on the left, arranged according to pillar, and the row at the top of the
models used, arranged according to sector. The numbers in the square cells in the center designate how man
under each category.
To see which indicators where placed in each category from each model, hold the mouse over and number in
screentip will pop up listing the indicators filed in the corresponding category and model.
To view the source material for the indicators of any model, click on the model name at the top of the spreads
indicators came from a book rather than the web; the model names for these are linked internally to their listin
section of the review.
The Indicator Database
The indicator database is searchable using the drop-down menus at the top of the spreadsheet. The menus c
indicators from a particular sector, organization, model, pillar, category or source. For example, to view all the
regime effectiveness from the private sector, one would select “private” from the model category drop down m
effectiveness” from the category menu, making sure that all other drop down menu’s read “all”. To view the ind
particular model in this sector, use the drop-down organization menu to choose an organization, such as Stan
a menu is used, the number of indicators isolated is listed at the bottom, such as “11 of 961 records found”.
12
d the row at the top of the matrix shows the

center designate how many indicators were filed
ouse over and number in the spreadsheet and a

odel.
at the top of the spreadsheet. A few of the model

ked internally to their listing in the references
preadsheet. The menus can be used to isolate

or example, to view all the indicators filed under
del category drop down menu and “regime
s read “all”. To view the indicators from one
rganization, such as Standard & Poor. Each time
1 of 961 records found”.
References
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
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http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ESSD/sdvext.nsf/67ByDocName/TheConflictAnalysisFrameworkCAFIdentifyingConflict-
relatedObstaclestoDevelopment/$FILE/CPR+5+final+legal.pdf
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Total Distribution of Indicators

Effective & Unbiased Police

Inflation & Unemployment

Natural Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6

Poverty & Existe 0 0 0 28 0 0 0

Inflation & Unem 0 0 0 28 0 0 0

Effective & Unbiased Police

Inflation & Unemployment

Natural Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6

Poverty & Existe 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

Inflation & Unem 0 0 0 4 0 0 0

Justice & Reconciliation

Effective & Unbiased Police

Inflation & Unemployment

Natural Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6

Poverty & Existe 0 0 0 14 0 0 0

Inflation & Unem 0 0 0 15 0 0 0

Justice & Reconciliation

Effective & Unbiased Police

Inflation & Unemployment

Natural Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6

Poverty & Existe 0 0 0 8 0 0 0

Inflation & Unem 0 0 0 4 0 0 0

Effective & Unbiased Police

Inflation & Unemployment

The Environment & Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6

Poverty & Existence o 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Inflation & Unemploym 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

Justice & Reconciliation

Model Category Organization Model Name Pillar Category Indicator Source

How independent and professional are the media? Censorship by

Standard & Poor's

Are there uncontrolled flows of migrants/refugees? Social friction

Does organized crime undermine the country’s stability? Control of

Standard & Poor's

Are there proper checks and balances in the political system?

Are other basic human rights respected? Prosecution of human

Standard & Poor's Inflation &

How stable is the region’s geopolitical situation? Relations with the

Does the state arbitrate over tensions and disputes between

How robust is the economy? Income dependency on a limited

Is policy framework conducive to macro-economic stability? Stability

Standard & Poor's Macroeconomic

Academic, CAST - Conflict Poverty &

Academic, Poverty &

Academic, Poverty &

Academic, FAST Analytical Poverty &

International CAF- Conflict Poverty &

Conflict Poverty &

Conflict Poverty &

Conflict Poverty &

CIFP - Country Poverty &

What is the overall level of respect for national authorities?

Standard & Poor's Regime

Standard & Poor's Regime

Standard & Poor's Structural

Standard & Poor's

Standard & Poor's

Canadian Gov't & Carleton U