Emerging powers in Developing Countries and their Advantages and

Barriers of Growth

-By Rehanshu Vij, K-12735

Abstract
The essay highlights aspirations and the challenges faced by the third world economies, also
known as the developing countries and the Global-South. Paper covers the economic conditions
and policies of the major third world economies, it covers China, India, suburban-African
nations, Brazil, Vietnam and Mexico. It highlights Vietnam and Mexico contender ship in rise
of power and abrupt rise in past two decades. This analysis is essential for peaceful rise of the
developing nations and predicting balance of power in the world.

“The World’s Factory”- China

The People's Republic of China is a strong emerging economic and Military power and the
term “secondary superpower” has already been credited to China by historians, media and
scholars. China does indeed have the most promising all around profile of a potential
superpower with business ventures and investment deals in South Asia Africa and Latin
America and with a degree of alienation from dominant International Society making it
potentially a power to challenge Collective World politics along with the European Union and
the United States China is a real Contender particularly with its ballooning domestic.
Economists Arvind Subramanian argues that China will direct the world's Financial systems
by the end of 2020 and within 20 years and it’s estimated by many Economists that the United
States will be surpassed by China.

But the balance of the world's economic power gained by China, by becoming a manufacturing
giant has begun to shift towards other countries due to trade war complications with the US
and thier money pondering policies. In fact, we are already starting to see some signs of other
nations around the world rising up in order to take away some of China's manufacturing
prowess away from them and we might be witnessing the creation of the next generation of
economic superpowers, but the reason that this is happening is a little bit complex.

It started a few decades ago in 1970s China when the country began shifting its Economic
Policy away from communism and more towards capitalism. They soon began building specific
economic zones were massive ports and factories could be built that would maximize
productivity and efficiency once these economic zones were opened up to foreign trade. And
investment China's economy began exploding in the 1980s many Fortune 500 companies began
having their products manufactured in China because China could make their products with a
similar level of quality for substantially at lower price than if they were to have been
manufactured in the west. And this was largely because of the extremely low wages that
Chinese workers made along with other factors like tax laws and import-export efficiencies.

China by the 2010s one-third of all products on the planet were manufactured in China and
within the span of 50 years China had turned itself around from an impoverished nation of
farmers to a nation that has the second largest economy in the World Behind the United States
now despite all of this success there have been a few strange things. Things that have happened
over the past few years. Here's a question for you. What happens when a country who builds
its Economy based upon low labor costs. All of a sudden becomes very wealthy. Well, here's
what happened to China in 1990 the average yearly wage from a Chinese worker was about a
$150 A 2005 it was two thousand eight hundred dollars in 2015. Massive increase where we
have seen the average wage of the manufacturing worker increased by over 85 hundred percent
over the last 30 years and what this means today is that the cost of making products in China
has become a lot more expensive than it used to be companies can't make products for an 80%
discount in China anymore. Like they used to and because of this we actually began to see a
decline in manufacturing in China in 2016. Teen wear for the first time in the country's modern
history their manufacturing output actually decreased by 2% but the success of China's
economy was only the first Factor coming into play when talking about the decrease in its
manufacturing output after 2016 China once again saw modest increases in manufacturing
output until the United States imposed tariffs on imports from China. This caused a decrease
in Chinese Imports to the US by seven percent in 2019.

“The Fastest Growing Economy”-India

And every single year, but arguably one of the most intriguing countries that has benefited in
recent years is that of India. India is also developing economically at around 6% per annum
trying making into the race for influencing economies. India has about the same population as
China with 1.3 billion people, but the difference is that India is still largely an Agricultural
Society with a much poorer infrastructure roughly half of the workforce in India still works in
some way in the agricultural sector and just for comparison roughly five percent of the
American population Works in agriculture regardless. Since 2002 and east economy has grown
from a GDP per capita of $472 to roughly $2100 in 2020 and this economic growth has resulted
in India lifting more than 300 million of its citizens out of poverty over the last 18 years. But
India's growth has not come from manufacturing and it's actually come from service based
Industries, like banking retail and information technology accessibility.

Despite these strides forward. India still faces are rigid caste system in rural poverty corruption
and inequality issues. Politically India is stable with a democratic government under Prime
Minister Narendra Modi, who repeated it’s government in 2019 genral elections with over 300
seats, making it biggest victory in Indian history. By 2050, India is set to rise by up to 20%
with a young working Society. But while India has impressive economic and population growth
it. Well India has such as a good economic and population growth but India has many domestic
issues such as malnutrition and Rural poverty to tackle, before tackling the political world
stage.

There was one economic experiment that began being run at the start of 2014. And that was
cell phone manufacturing. So at the start of 2014 India was manufacturing about 10 million
cell phones a year, but by the end of 2019 India was producing roughly 150 million cell phones
per year and quickly became the second largest cell phone manufacturer in the world. And
despite this massive ramp up in manufacturing cell phones. India's infrastructure is still seen as
to inadequate right now for them to become the next China but with big investments from
companies, like apple who have begun making some of their iPhones in cities like Chennai, we
might see an expansion of India's manufacturing sector in the near future.

One key advantage that India has is a large young Workforce and an extremely low cost of
Labor currently in India the average Assuring laborer makes about five dollars per day.
Meanwhile, the average Chinese manufacturing labor makes about $28 per day. This has made
India a more attractive place for some companies to take a risk in manufacture their products
in India, even if they run into some infrastructure problems along the way. So if India were to
fix their infrastructure and capitalize on Manufacturing in the same way that China did in the
1990s we might see India become an influential power in the world.

The rise of Vietnam and Mexico

There is another Asian country that has been quietly going through an economic boom over
the last several decades in the year 2000 Vietnam was a country that was experiencing extreme
poverty throughout its population of nearly 100 million people. In fact, the GDP per capita of
Vietnam was a paltry 390 dollars at the time.

But then they got funded by big manufacturing companies, as China's population began to
become somewhat wealthy in the 2000s apparel companies like Nike began building factories
in Vietnam because it became substantially cheaper to manufacture some products in Vietnam
as opposed to China and in the following decades many other companies began to do the same.
That's China's wealth began to accelerate into the 2010s Vietnam's manufacturing sector began
to accelerate as well today Vietnam is now considered a middle-income country. Country with
a GDP per capita of roughly $3,000 and keep in mind that this shift from extreme poverty to
Middle income as occurred within just 20 years making it one of the fastest growing economies
in history. And if this trend were to continue we could see a Vietnam surpassed the likes of the
United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Iran, and even Hong Kong in terms of economic power
within the next several decades another country that has benefited a lot from China's
manufacturing downturn.

Another benefitted country is Mexico. In the last two years has been Mexico Tempest Capital
has estimated that Mexico will be receiving between 12 billion and 19 billion dollars in Chinese
manufacturing redirects per year for the near future. And in fact one survey of a hundred and
sixty Executives by fully and lardner suggested that two-thirds of large corporations in the
United States were planning on moving at least part of their manufacturing based out of China
and into Mexico. Within two years now, who knows how many of these companies will
actually follow through with their plans, but there's a lot of data that is showing how Mexico
is already becoming a bigger manufacturing Hub of the world. For example in 2017. Mexico's
exports to the United States have increased by roughly 14% to a whopping 320 billion dollars
and just some perspective that is about 42 percent of what China exports to the United States.
So there's still quite a ways away.

The declining economies of Brazil and Suburban African Nations

With a strong national identity and the united sense of ambition Brazil has sought to emerge as
a serious global economic and political power on the world stage with enormous natural
resources. Including a tenth of the world's fresh water the largest remaining rainforests and a
valuable supply of minerals Brazil looks set to lead the way when it comes to tackling the
inevitable environmental issues be all face. However, the apparent lack of traditional hard
power in the shape of military resources will undoubtedly prove a hurdle for Brazil to make a
claim for world superpower status using traditional methods of aggressive advancement.
But in recent years Brazil has gone through a rollercoaster of turmoil between economic woes
corruption scandals and impeachment proceedings. Brazil is in a deep crisis many blaming
fingers point to president Dilma Rousseff was recently suspended from office, but this has been
a slow unraveling the world's fifth most populous country. So here's the situation in order to
understand foods that you need to start with for predecessor president Luiz Inacio. Luiz was
wildly popular and became a symbol for Brazil's economic incentives as one of the top
exporters the world of Commodities such as oil soybeans corn and iron ore Dilma Rousseff
with Lulu's Protege became the first woman to be elected president of Brazil in 2010 during
versus presidency Global prices for raw materials began drop and Corruption Scandal
paralyzed many infrastructure projects make severe strain on Ourselves economy, how bad did
it get Brazil's economy shrank 3.8 percent in 2015 the most in a quarter Century, the country's
credit rating was downgraded to jump and business and consumer confidence levels felt is
nearly their lowest on record Rusev's presidency is also constrained by the massive Scandal
involving petrol bunks state-run oil temp investigation dubbed operation Carwash revealed the
deeply corrupt organization and government it on Earth to scheme started over a decade ago.

Growth in Suburban Africa goes like this, around 21 countries in this region rise to 3.6 percent
in 2020. These growth rates are lower than we visited in April with growth being revised
somewhat in about two-thirds of countries in the region and this downward revision reflects
the more challenging global environment, and we have an anticipated growth in South Africa
and particular. Furthermore the growth Outlook remains splits. There are 10 countries in the
region including the two largest economies Nigeria and South Africa that are expected to
experience negative per capita growth rate in 2019. On the other hand. None resource-intensive
economies in particular will continue to grow strongly at close to 6% per year Well above the
average globally.

Intensification of the tensions is lowering growth in key trading partners is knock on effects in
the region. Already export growth from the region has already slowed markedly during Global
Trends downside risks to growth include weather-related shocks, which are becoming more
frequent and the intensification of security challenges those areas where security challenges
remain in the short term many countries need to implement plan fiscal adjustment.

The room for supporting growth in the face of elevated external risks remains mainly on the
monetary policy side and limited to those countries where inflation pressures are subdued and
growth is below potential country's needs to raise medium term growth to create enough jobs
to employ the new entrance into labor markets and help meets the sustainable development
goals boosting growth the medium term would require comprehensive. Only tackling tariff and
non-tariff barriers in the context of African Continental free trade agreements and
implementing complimentary structural reforms to boost investment and competitiveness.
 Conclusion
Developing the infrastructure for manufacturing is one of the major reasons for development
and growth of developing countries in past decade, whereas , unskilled human resource,
illiteracy and corruption were the major reasons for the declines. But this brings up the question
if the likes of India, Vietnam or Mexico might become the new China and reach a wealth
standard that China reached in the 2010s then what will the next manufacturing Hub be. Well
some say that within 50 years with enough advancements in Ai and Robotics many products
will be produced domestically by each country. But if that doesn't happen within the next half
century, there is an entire continent with a large population and cheap labor force that is already
being viewed as an economic Battleground between the United States and China clash.

References

• India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) in the New Global Order: Interests, Strategies

and Values of the Emerging Coalition -by Daniel Flemes
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