Theageof Uneasy Peace: Chinese Power in A Divided World
Theageof Uneasy Peace: Chinese Power in A Divided World
Theageof Uneasy Peace: Chinese Power in A Divided World
40 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The Age o f Uneasy Peace
Dreaming o f a new world order: X i at a news conference in Mexico City, July 2018
terms, the gap between the two coun accords and institutions. In 2018 alone,
tries has not narrowed by much in it ditched the Intermediate-Range Nuclear
recent years: since 2015, China’s gdp Forces Treaty, the nuclear deal with Iran,
growth has slowed to less than seven and the un Human Rights Council.
percent a year, and recent estimates put It is still unclear if this retrenchment
U.S. growth above the three percent is just a momentary lapse—a short-lived
mark. In the same period, the value of aberration from the norm—or a new
the renminbi has decreased by about ten U.S. foreign policy paradigm that could
percent against the U.S. dollar, under outlive Trump’s tenure. But the global
cutting China’s import capacity and its fallout of Trumpism has already pushed
currency’s global strength. W hat has some countries toward China in ways that
changed a great deal, however, is the would have seemed inconceivable a few
expectation that the United States will years ago. Take Japanese Prime Minister
continue to promote—through diplo Shinzo Abe, who effectively reversed
macy and, if necessary, military power— Japan’s relations with China, from barely
an international order built for the most hidden hostility to cooperation, during a
part around liberal internationalist prin state visit to Beijing in October 2018,
ciples. Under Trump, the country has when China and Japan signed over 50
EDGARD GARRIDO / REUTERS
defense budget may reach $800 billion, related to the initiative, and this number
and the Chinese one may exceed $300 is set to increase in the coming years. At
billion, whereas no other global power its 2017 National Congress, the Chinese
will spend more than $80 billion on its Communist Party went so far as to
forces. The question, then, is not whether enshrine a commitment to the initiative
a bipolar U.S.-Chinese order will come in its constitution—a signal that the
to be but what this order will look like. party views the infrastructure project as
At the top of Beijing’s priorities is a more than a regular foreign policy. China
liberal economic order built on free trade. is also willing to further open its domes
China’s economic transformation over tic markets to foreign goods in exchange
the past decades from an agricultural for greater access abroad. Just in time for
society to a major global powerhouse— a major trade fair in Shanghai in November
and the world’s second-largest economy— 2018—designed to showcase the country’s
was built on exports. The country has potential as a destination for foreign
slowly worked its way up the value goods—China lowered its general tariff
chain, its exports beginning to compete from 10.5 percent to 7.8 percent.
with those of highly advanced econo Given this enthusiasm for the global
mies. Now as then, these exports are the economy, the image of a revisionist
lifeblood of the Chinese economy: they China that has gained traction in many
ensure a consistent trade surplus, and the Western capitals is misleading. Beijing
jobs they create are a vital engine of relies on a global network of trade ties,
domestic social stability. There is no so it is loath to court direct confronta
indication that this will change in the tion with the United States. Chinese
coming decade. Even amid escalating leaders fear—not without reason—that
trade tensions between Beijing and such a confrontation might cut off its
Washington, China’s overall export access to U.S. markets and lead U.S.
volume continued to grow in 2018. U.S. allies to band together against China
tariffs may sting, but they will neither rather than stay neutral, stripping it of
change Beijing’s fundamental incentives important economic partnerships and
nor portend a general turn away from valuable diplomatic connections. As a
global free trade on its part. result, caution, not assertiveness or
Quite to the contrary: because China’s aggressiveness, will be the order of the
exports are vital to its economic and day in Beijing’s foreign policy in the
political success, one should expect coming years. Even as it continues to
Beijing to double down on its attempts to modernize and expand its military,
gain and maintain access to foreign China will carefully avoid pressing
markets. This strategic impetus is at the issues that might lead to war with the
heart of the much-touted Belt and Road United States, such as those related to
Initiative, through which China hopes to the South China Sea, cybersecurity,
develop a vast network of land and sea and the weaponization of space.
routes that will connect its export hubs
to far-flung markets. As of August 2018, NEW RULES?
some 70 countries and organizations had Indeed, much as Chinese leaders hope
signed contracts with China for projects to be on par with their counterparts in
42 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Washington, they worry about the strate
gic implications of a bipolar U.S.-Chinese
order. American leaders balk at the idea
of relinquishing their position at the top FOREIGN
of the global food chain and will likely
go to great lengths to avoid having to AFFAIRS
accommodate China. Officials in Beijing,
in no hurry to become the sole object of
Washington’s apprehension and scorn,
would much rather see a multipolar
world in which other challenges—and
challengers—force the United States
to cooperate with China.
In fact, the United States’ own rise
in the nineteenth and early twentieth
centuries provides something of a model
for how the coming power transition may
take place. Because the United Kingdom,
the world’s undisputed hegemon at the We don't break
time, was preoccupied with fending off a
challenger in its vicinity—Germany—it the news;
did not bother much to contain the rise
of a much bigger rival across the pond. w e break it down.
China is hoping for a similar dynamic
now, and recent history suggests it Educate your employees and
could indeed play out. In the early customers about the most
months of George W. Bush’s presi pressing global issues of today
dency, for instance, relations between with a Foreign Affairs Foreign
Beijing and Washington were souring Policy Briefing. Bring us to
over regional disputes in the South
your office or event space to
China Sea, reaching a boiling point
when a Chinese air force pilot died in provide expert perspective on
a midair collision with a U.S. surveil the forces shaping your world
lance plane in April 2001. Following and your business.
the 9/11 attacks a few months later,
however, Washington came to see
China as a useful strategic partner in
For inquiries about events
its global fight against terrorism, and
relations improved significantly over at your organization,
the rest of Bush’s two terms. please contact us at
Today, unfortunately, the list of events@foreignaffairs.com
common threats that could force the
two countries to cooperate is short.
After 17 years of counterterrorism
43
Yan Xuetong
campaigns, the sense of urgency that tional law. In recent years, some have
once surrounded the issue has faded. interpreted public statements by
Climate change is just as unlikely to Chinese leaders in support of global
make the list of top threats anytime ization as a sign that Beijing seeks to
soon. The most plausible scenario is fashion itself as the global liberal order’s
that a new global economic crisis in new custodian, yet such sweeping inter
the coming years will push U.S. and pretations are wishful thinking: China is
Chinese leaders to shelve their disagree merely signaling its support for a liberal
ments for a moment to avoid economic economic order, not for ever-increasing
calamity—but this, too, remains a political integration. Beijing remains
hypothetical. fearful of outside interference, particu
To make matters worse, some points larly relating to Hong Kong, Taiwan,
of potential conflict are here to s ta y - Tibet, and Xinjiang, as well as on matters
chief among them Taiwan. Relations of press freedom and online regulations.
between Beijing and Taipei, already As a result, it views national sovereignty,
tense, have taken a turn for the worse rather than international responsibili
in recent years. Taiwan’s current govern ties and norms, as the fundamental
ment, elected in 2016, has questioned the principle on which the international
notion that mainland China and Taiwan order should rest. Even as a new super
form a single country, also known as the power in the coming decade, China will
“one China” principle. A future govern therefore pursue a less interventionist
ment in Taipei might well push for de jure foreign policy than the United States
independence. Yet a Taiwanese indepen did at the apex of its power. Consider
dence referendum likely constitutes a the case of Afghanistan: even though it
redline for Beijing and may prompt it to is an open secret that the United States
take military action. If the United States expects the Chinese military to shoul
were to respond by coming to Taiwan’s der some of the burden of maintaining
aid, a military intervention by Beijing stability there after U.S. troops leave
could easily spiral into a full-fledged the country, the Chinese government
U.S.-Chinese war. To avoid such a crisis, has shown no interest in this idea.
Beijing is determined to nip any Taiwan Increased Chinese clout may also
ese independence aspirations in the bud bring attempts to promote a vision of
by political and economic means. As a world order that draws on ancient
result, it is likely to continue lobbying Chinese philosophical traditions and
third countries to cut off their diplo theories of statecraft. One term in
matic ties with Taipei, an approach it particular has been making the rounds
has already taken with several Latin in Beijing: wangdao, or “humane au
American countries. thority.” The word represents a view of
Cautious or not, China set somewhat China as an enlightened, benevolent
different emphases in its approach to hegemon whose power and legitimacy
norms that undergird the international derive from its ability to fulfill other
order. In particular, a more powerful countries’ security and economic needs—
China will push for a stronger empha in exchange for their acquiescence to
sis on national sovereignty in interna Chinese leadership.
44 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The Age of Uneasy Peace
countries are also tightening control of in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time,
capital flows as they brace for a global these states still maintain close trade
economic slump in the near future. and investment relations with China,
And as concerns over immigration and and several of them have sided with
unemployment threaten to undermine Beijing in trying to reform the World
Western governments’ legitimacy, more Trade Organization.
and more countries will increase visa This two-track strategy shows just
restrictions for foreign workers. how far down the road to bipolarity the
Unlike the order that prevailed world has already advanced. And the
during the Cold War, a bipolar U.S.- fundamental driver of this process—
Chinese order will be shaped by fluid, the raw economic and military clout on
issue-specific alliances rather than which American and, increasingly,
rigid opposing blocs divided along clear Chinese dominance rests—will further
ideological lines. Since the immediate cement Beijing’s and Washington’s status
risk of a U.S.-Chinese war is vanishingly as the two global heavyweights in the
small, neither side appears willing to coming decade. Whether or not the
build or maintain an extensive—and United States recovers from its Trumpian
expensive—network of alliances. China fever and leads a renewed push for global
still avoids forming explicit alliances, and liberalism is, ultimately, of little conse
the United States regularly complains quence to the outcome: opposed in their
about free-riding allies. Moreover, neither strategic interests but evenly matched in
side is currently able to offer a grand their power, China and the United States
narrative or global vision appealing to will be unable to challenge each other
large majorities at home, let alone to a directly and settle the struggle for
large number of states. supremacy definitively. As during the
For some time to come, then, U.S.- Cold War, each side’s nuclear warheads
Chinese bipolarity will not be an ideo will prevent proxy conflicts from easily
logically driven, existential conflict over escalating into a direct confrontation
the fundamental nature of the global between the two superpowers. More
order; rather, it will be a competition important still, China’s leadership is
over consumer markets and technologi acutely aware of the benefits its country
cal advantages, playing out in disputes derives from the status quo, for now—it
about the norms and rules governing is chief among the conditions for China’s
trade, investment, employment, exchange continued economic and soft-power
rates, and intellectual property. And expansion—and will avoid putting these
rather than form clearly defined military- benefits on the line anytime soon, unless
economic blocs, most states will adopt a China’s core interests are in the balance.
two-track foreign policy, siding with the Chinese leaders will therefore work hard
United States on some issues and China to avoid setting off alarm bells in already
on others. Western allies, for instance, jittery Western capitals, and their foreign
are still closely aligned with the United policy in the coming years will reflect
States on traditional security matters this objective. Expect recurring tensions
inside nato , and Australia, India, and and fierce competition, yes, but not a
Japan have supported the U.S. strategy descent into global chaos.®
46 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The contents of Foreign Affairs are protected by copyright. © 2004 Council on Foreign
Relations, Inc., all rights reserved. To request permission to reproduce additional copies of the
article(s) you will retrieve, please contact the Permissions and Licensing office of Foreign
Affairs.