Introduction

Urbanization in China has been on a growing trend in the past two decades. Today, an estimated
46% (640 million) people are living in urban settings (Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD), 2013, p. 14). Based on research, there has been an overall increment
of 169% urban migration world-wide since the years 1970 to 2012. This number represents 3.6
billion people who have move from rural-areas to urban places. The most affected regions are the
developing and developed countries Angel,
Parent, Civco, Blei, & Potere, 2010. It is predicted that the growth will pro-long over the next
decade. According to He, Tian, Shi, & Hu (2011)), most people move to urban places due to
social-economic circumstances. Under these conditions most are motivated to work harder and to
attain their desired level of living standards According to statistical predictions, by the year
2050, more than 70% of Chines population will have moved to urban areas. These will consist of
more than 700 million people in Chinas urban centers. Currently China is categorized as World's
fastest-growing economy in the entire world. This increase in population growth has had
tremendous impact of economic prosperity. Overall the annual growth has consistently been
above 6% over three decades (The World Bank Group, n.d., 8). Shanghai and Guangdong are
major cities and are reflective of the urbanization and economic growth patterns. The paper will
seek to determine whether urbanization and economic growth in Shanghai and Guangdong
between 2000 and 2015 are correlated.
Urbanization refers to the growth of people who live in cities and mainly leads physical
expansion of city areas, or demographic move from rural to urban areas as well as urban land
growth that’s been observed worldwide in the recent number of decades. According to
academic literature, urban population has been increased 169% from 1970 to 2011 (1.35
billion to 3.63 billion) globally (United Nations, 2011). Urbanization has taken palace more
noticeably in under developed and developing countries than developed countries (Angel,
Parent, Civco, Blei, & Potere, 2010), and it will continue to grow specially in emerging
economies and predicted to be expend at exponential rate. Growing trend of urban population
globally is creating socio-economic problems for developing countries like delivery of
services to public, congestion, housing, education, health and unemployment (Bloom,
Canning, & Fink, 2008).
Enormous studies have been conducted and focused on urbanization, demographic
urbanization, urban land expansion and used the terminology like city proper urbanization,
agglomeration and metropolitan areas to define and discuss urban trend. However, the critical
factors that lead urbanization or urban expansion is relatively less understood and
comparative studies on main factors of urbanization among different countries are rarely
observed. Interestingly, characterizing driving forces of urbanization is the prerequisite to not
only understand the urbanization process itself, and ecological consequences but also support
fit for possible urban planning and management strategies (J. Wu & Hobbs, 2002; W. Wu,
Zhao, Zhu, & Jiang, 2015)

Definition and literature review

Urbanization is the movement of people from rural areas and settlements in urban settings. Based
on research, there has been an overall increment of 169% urban migration world-wide since the
years 1970 to 2012. This number represents 3.6 billion people who have move from rural-areas
to urban places. The most affected regions are the developing and developed countries Angel,
Parent, Civco, Blei, & Potere, 2010. It is predicted that the growth will pro-long over the next
decade. Accordin to Dawn (2012), most people move to urban places due to social-economic
circumstances People relocate to urban areas in search of employment, quality lives, better
education and health facilities or social integration/diversity. Urbanization can be calculated
through (Urban population / Total permanent resident population). Shanghai has a population of
24.24 million people, while Guangdong has a population of 113.46 million people (Garnaut,
Song, & Fang, 2018, 28). Economic growth is a positive change in a country's Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) per capita, which is obtained by dividing a region's GDP by the total permanent
population within the period using the constant price in real terms. Shanghai has a GDP of 3.27
yuan, while Guangdong has 9.7 trillion yuan (Garnaut, Song, & Fang, 2018, 36). Indicatively,
Shanghai, and Guangdong have experienced urbanization and economic growth over the past
two decades.

Hypothesis: Urbanization of Shanghai and Guangdong has a strong positive correlation with the
economic growth of the cities between 2000 and 2015.

Estimation of the population of Chinese cities has remained a challenge because it is determined
through the Hukou registration system, which has numerous shortcomings (Zund & Bettencourt,
2019, par 28). Notably, the growth of the population in major Chinese cities is because of
increased industrialization (Sun, & Lisaia, 2018, 3; Malik, Asmi, Ali, &Rahman, 2017, 150).
According to Zhang & Chen (2017, 2), urbanization in major Chinese cities occurs due to the
high demand for cheap labor in industries and factories. As a result people tend to move to urban
areas in search of these labor opportunities. The increased population in the cities has resulted
from rural-urban migration and the growth of the urban natural population (Farrell & Westlund,
2018, 86). According to Peterson (2017, par 36), the relationship between economic growth and
urbanization is considered controversial. However, Turok & McGranahan (2013, 467), argued
that urbanization could promote economic growth if cities have conducive infrastructure and
institutions. Furthermore, it can trigger cumulative economic growth to the countries involved
(Zi, 2017, 211). Past researches indicate that major cities in China, such as Shanghai and
Guangdong, have undergone increased urbanization, and their economies have improved.
According to (Yao, 2013), the economic growth of Guangdong in 2012 was estimated to have
improved by 8%. This percentage increases was the highest in the whole of china. Likewise,
Shanghai recoded an improvement in the GDP of 7.5%.
Research questions
 Do the urbanization and economic growth that occurred in Shanghai and Guangdong
between 2000 and 2015 have a causality relationship?
 Can the urbanization and economic growth trends identified in Shanghai and Guangdong
between 2000 and 2015 be used to predict the future?

Through the research questions, the article lays a blueprint that will facilitate and inform China
government of the public policy and development decision necessary to further economic
development of the two provinces. Public policy requires projection to ensure that the resources
available will benefit the population that will exist in the foreseeable future. The availability of
data on urbanization can help a city invest in development projects to address the needs of the
growing population. In that case, understanding whether a causal relationship exists between
urbanization and economic growth in Shanghai and Guangdong will help the cities project the
likely demand for resources and the likely economic growth. A positive correlation will prove
beneficial both to the city (in terms of improve infrastructures) and people (better housing and
health policies). In addition the cities can convince financial partners to invest in development
projects because they will visualize the likely economic gains. The government will extend urban
development to other cities with an aim of improving the economy in references to shanghai and
Guangdong. Furthermore, the government will be enticed to initiate self-sustaining programs
meant at ensuring that security and household availability are availed at reliable cost to
encourage more investment.
Methodology
The research follows a correlational research design. It seeks to determine whether a correlation
exists between Shanghai and Guangdong's urbanization and economic growth between 2000 and
2015. To do these, the article compares the urban migration rate with the respective economic
growth experienced. Economic growth of a country is measured through GDP per capita of each
of the cities within the period using the constant price in real terms. GDP per capita is defined as
the average individual earnings of a person in a certain country. It forms one of the main
parameters that are essential in calculation of economic growth/development. On the other hand,
Urbanization is measured by (Urban population / Total permanent resident population) in
Shanghai and Guangdong respectively. Notably, the denominator (total permanent resident) is
pivotal to arriving at the correct answer. In this case, we can spot the change in urbanization.

Data on changing population patterns and GDP per capita of Shanghai and Guangdong between
2000 and 2015 have been collected from the World Bank Group's database. Access approvals to
the database were sought, and the data sieved based on GDP per capita and population changes.
Data analysis was done through correlational tests and was meant to help determine whether a
causal relationship exists between the two variables. The results of the correlational test helped
answer the first research question. Analysis of the trend in GDP per capita and population change
in both cities between 2000 and 2015 helped answer the second research question on the use of
the data for future predictions.

Results
The table below shows the urbanization distribution of the two cities over in an interval of
5years. The article has adopted this interval in to ensure notable change in responded variables.
Consider 2000 to be the base year. In this year the article assumes that both urbanization and
GDP per capital were held at zero.

Comparison of Urbanization aand GDP per capital increase

City Year Urbanization Urban Urbanizatio GDP per capital increase

population population rise n
Shanghai 14,246,541
2000
Guangdon 7,812,008
g
Shanghai 17,055,788 2,809,247 16.47% 1266.8
2005
Guangdon 9,055,056 1,243,044 13.72% 720.295
g
Shanghai 20,314,309 3,258,521 16.04% 1748.65
2010
Guangdon 10,278,197 1,231,141 11.97% 1085.925
g
Shanghai 23,482,181 3,167,872 13.49% 2406.82
2015
Guangdon 11,694,882 1,416,685 12.11% 1881.791
g
From the above diagram, it is evident that over the last 15 years. Movement from rural to urban
areas has been a key element for people in both cities. In

Discussion
From the findings it is clear that urbanization has greatly affected the economic development of
the two cities. Shanghai whose bases year population was 14,246,541 has experience a total
increments of more than 3% since 2000. As the period progress more and people fill these city.
By the years 2015, the number of people who had migrated to shanghai has move to more than 5
million people. As a city that has an area of (Gu, Wu & Cook, 2012), these amount of people are
expected to exhaust the city of its natural resources. However, the industrial developments that
have been set up in the city have sustained this large number of people.
Piketty (2014) conducted research that seek to identify the relationship between population
growth and per capita GDP, according to his findings population growth correspond negatively to
the overall economic growth of any city. His report was backed out by the theory that continuous
increments of population will at one point affect the city resources in such a way that the
resources will not be able to sustain them. However, his theory took into consideration that the
causes if migration from rural to urban was not poverty. According to our research one of the
factor we considered was that people move due to poverty and are willing to work for long hours
in order to attain better living conditions. Maslow theory of need is provides a more profound
explanation to the reason why these people move. The need to attain certain needs motivates
them to become more self-driven and committed. Upon attainment of the basic need, people tend
to go for necessities which make their lives more comfortable.
It is worth noting that economic development translates to better infrastructures with setting of
industries and business, natural resources are improves. Road are tarmacked, communication
infrastructures improved and social responsibilities are more put into mind.
Based on Zhang & Chen (2017), industrial growth ensures that the old and the weak are looked
upon by the companies and organizations put in places. Many companies put have programs that
cater for the old in the society. They give financial support and material products to the old and
the poor in the community. Furthermore, the companies employ the strong to work in their
companies in attempts to improve the living conditions of their families and themselves.
Guangdong had a total population of 7,812,008 in the years 2000. Over the years, the population
has increased to an estimate total of 11,694,882. With comparison to the year 2000, the total
number has increased by more than 65%. Corresponding GDP per capital increase has shot from
720.29 to 1881, 45.
This increase in in the number of population has been made possible due to the increases
amenities set in the cities. According Peterson (2017), one of the essential contributors to the
growth of the population is employment opportunities. Manufacturing companies which are put
up often and restaurants that attract business people form a big of the labor market. In response
to the increased urbanization, there has been a corresponding increase in the overall gross
domestic product of individuals (Nanjing metropolitan region of China, 2002). Based on a report
provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, a positive growth has been experienced since the
industrial revolution of the two cities caused by the post-war reconstruction (Kwok 2002; Lin
2002).The positive growth experienced in the two cities shows that with areas can have
tremendous growth when resources applied to the area. Therefore, the growth of the two cities is
reliant of industrial growth and overall development of its infrastructures.
The municipal governance of the two cities has attributed the growth to well-structured policies
that allow for allocation and application and resources in the city. As a result there has been a
upward trend in the development both economic and social. More than 35% job opportunities
have been created and more than 12% of the people who use to lack basic necessities are now
able to acquire them.
From the statistical data obtained from the research, there has been upwards curve of the
population is response to economic development. Policy makers should use this information to
stablish more betters ways of ensuring improving and formulating policies that will encourage
more people to invest in these places. Creating awareness to investors of the opportunities found
in this cities will a long way in generating more growth.
Limitation

Conclusion
Urbanization in Shanghai and Guangdong between 2000 and 2015 contributed to the cities'
economic growth during the period. The cities' local administration can use the data on
urbanization and economic growth to inform policy decisions and development agenda.
Urbanization is likely to continue increasing, and this will mean increased development for the
cities. Investing in infrastructure to sustain the increasing urban population in the cities will have
guaranteed returns, considering the causality relationship identified.

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