Amicus of ADHS
Amicus of ADHS
Amicus of ADHS
Petitioners,
v.
Respondent.
BRIEF OF CARA M. CHRIST, M.D., M.S. IN HER OFFICIAL CAPACITY
AS DIRECTOR OF THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
SERVICES AS AMICUS CURIAE IN SUPPORT OF
RESPONDENT DOUGLAS A. DUCEY
Gregory W. Falls (011206)
Craig A. Morgan (023373)
SHERMAN & HOWARD L.L.C.
201 E. Washington St., Suite 800
Phoenix, Arizona 85004-1043
GFalls@ShermanHoward.com
CMorgan@ShermanHoward.com
Attorneys for Cara M. Christ, M.D., M.S.
Click on the headings below to go to corresponding page
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
AMICUS CURIAE’S STATEMENT OF INTEREST ...............................................1
I. ARIZONANS UNNECESSARILY WILL GET SICK, SUFFER, AND
MAY DIE IF PETITIONERS ARE GRANTED THE RELIEF THEY
SEEK ...............................................................................................................3
A. BARS ARE ESPECIALLY UNSAFE DURING THIS PANDEMIC .......................4
B. COVID-19 IS AN AIRBORNE DISEASE THAT IS SPREAD THROUGH
SOMETHING AS MUNDANE AS TALKING OR BREATHING--ACTIVITIES
THAT ARE PARTICULARLY PREVALENT AND UNAVOIDABLE IN A BAR
SETTING ....................................................................................................6
C. GUIDANCE FROM THE UNITED STATES, STATE AND LOCAL
GOVERNMENT AUTHORITIES, AND RESPECTED EXPERTS AND
PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS LIKEWISE SUPPORTS (IF NOT COMPELS)
GOVERNOR DUCEY’S DECISION TO TEMPORARILY CLOSE BARS IN
ARIZONA .................................................................................................11
D. ARIZONA IS AT A CROSSROADS WHERE THE DECISIONS MADE WILL
EITHER SAVE LIVES OR EXACERBATE THE SPREAD OF COVID-19
POTENTIALLY TO A POINT OF NO RETURN ............................................16
II. CONCLUSION..............................................................................................19
APPENDIX ..............................................................................................................21
White House Coronavirus Task Force Report .....................................................22
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TABLE OF AUTHORITIES
Page
Statutes
A.R.S. § 36-132..........................................................................................................2
A.R.S. § 36-787..........................................................................................................2
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prejudice: spread from one person to another, or rather from one person to many
others. People of all ages and socio-economic backgrounds are getting sick. Many
are dying. Many who do not die will be impaired in one way or another for life.
than ever, we must all come together, make sacrifices, and do what we must to
protect the public health and welfare. Many Arizonans, and many Arizona
businesses, have valiantly answered that call. The relief Petitioners seek would
place all Arizonans at greater risk of sickness, suffering, and even death. This
1
The Director started her career with the Department in 2000 as an Infectious
Disease Epidemiologist. She left the Department in 2001 to attend medical school
at the University of Arizona College of Medicine and completed her residency at
Banner Good Samaritan Medical Center in Phoenix. She also has a master’s
degree in microbiology with an emphasis in molecular virology and public health.
She returned to the Department after her residency to serve between 2008 and 2009
as the State Tuberculosis Control Officer and Medical Director for the Bureau of
Epidemiology and Disease Control. From 2009 to 2012, she was the Bureau Chief
for Epidemiology and Disease Control and Public Health Chief Medical Officer.
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and its Director are tasked with protecting the health and wellness of all Arizonans.
It is the Director’s duty to “… [p]rotect the health of the people of the state” and
through the Director, must “coordinate all matters pertaining to the public health
response and recovery for this state,” “[c]oordinating public health emergency
response among state, local and tribal authorities,” and “[c]oordinating recovery
combating COVID-19 and safeguarding the health and welfare of all Arizonans.
She served as the Assistant Director for the Division of Public Health Licensing
Services from 2012 to 2014. Beginning in 2014, she was the Deputy Director for
the Division of Public Health Services and served as the Department’s Chief
Medical Officer from 2012 to 2015. She was appointed Director of the
Department in May 2015.
2
Unless otherwise indicated, all statutory and administrative rule citations are to
the version currently in effect.
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undo measures meant to keep Arizona safe and overcome the devastation wrought
by COVID-19. The Director has a genuine and substantial interest in the outcome
of this Special Action. In her medical opinion, science and common-sense compel
the measures Governor Ducey has carefully enacted through Executive Order
(“EO”) 2020-43. Those actions are meant to, and will, save lives. The Director
agreed with Governor Ducey that it is not for Petitioners (or this Court) to second
Arizonans and mitigate further disaster. For these reasons, and those that follow,
the Director submits this Brief as Amicus Curiae in support of Governor Ducey.
and bars are of particular concern. Governor Ducey’s Response Brief recites
several facts, statistics, and other data related to the spread of COVID-19,
particularly in and around bars. The Director agrees with and adopts those
recitations, and will endeavor not to unnecessarily repeat them again here. Instead,
the Director will provide this Court with additional information and data
(1) supporting Governor Ducey’s decision to focus on bars in his effort to combat
the COVID-19 pandemic, and (2) compelling this Court to show substantial
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person coughs, sneezes, or talks. Those viral droplets can land in the mouths or
noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. They also
may spread to the hands from a contaminated surface and then to the nose or
mouth. Spread is more likely when people are in close contact with one another
(within about 6 feet). See Considerations for Restaurants and Bars (updated Jul.
COVID-19 because “[n]ot only is there a chance you could encounter a large
https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/what-activities-pose-the-highest-risk-
for-covid-19-experts-weigh-in (last visited, Jul. 17, 2020). One New Orleans bar
owner aptly summarized these concerns: “On our busiest nights, it’s sweaty, and
it’s loud and it’s impossible to navigate without touching a half-dozen other
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Indeed, “bars are emerging as fertile breeding grounds for the coronavirus.
They create a risky cocktail of tight quarters, young adults unbowed by the fear of
illness and, in some instances, proprietors who don’t enforce crowd limits and
of-covid-contagion/ (last visited Jul. 17, 2020) (noting “as bars and other public
places reopen, rates of infection in younger adults are rising, and bars are a
This concern is not speculative. It is real. For example, at least 100 people
tested positive for COVID-19 after visiting bars in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. See
Jul. 22, 2020). Ada County, Idaho, had a rapid increase of 303 cases of COVID-
19, many of which were linked with individuals who reported going to bars and
3
“‘People almost don’t want to social-distance if they go to the bar,’ said Dr.
Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health
Security in Baltimore. ‘They’re going to be drinking alcohol, which is a social
lubricant. People will often be loud, and if they have forceful speech, that’s going
to create more droplets.’” https://khn.org/news/packed-bars-serve-up-new-rounds-
of-covid-contagion/ (last visited Jul. 19, 2020).
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Similarly, in Orlando, Florida, a bar had its liquor license suspended after more
orlando/coronavirus/2020/06/23/ucf-area-bar-gets-liquor-license-pulled-after-
of COVID-19 that spread to nearly 140 people was linked to a large brewpub. See
https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/07/why-bars-are-a-big-risk-for-
Jul. 19, 2020). And in Itaewon, South Korea, a 29-year-old who visited multiple
clubs and bars was linked to over 100 people who were infected. See
2020).
Most everyone enjoys going out with friends, family, and even strangers to
have a drink and celebrate something, or even just to unwind after a long day. In
times of pandemic, what we do during “normal” times must take a back seat to
someone talks (perhaps to speak over a loud crowd or loud music or shout at a
friend across the room), the larger the quantity of viral droplets that will emit and
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expose others to infection. See Asadi, S., Wexler, A.S., Cappa, C.D., et al.,
Aerosol emission and superemission during human speech increase with voice
38808-z (last visited Jul. 17, 2020). We also know that airborne viral infection can
spread in short range indoor environments through a “direct spray route by which
large droplets are deposited directly on the mucous membranes of the susceptible
host (large droplet route) or by direct inhalation of fine droplets or droplet nuclei
(airborne route),” with the latter “referred to as the short-range airborne route
because exposure occurs when the 2 individuals are in close contact.” Wei, J.,
Yuguo, L., Airborne spread of infectious agents in the indoor environment, Am.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196655316305314?via%3Dih
19) in a bar setting is a very real concern rooted in science. While we know that
Organization (WHO), together with the scientific community, has been evaluating
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2020), https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/transmission-of-sars-
particularly alarming and informative. See Kline SE, Hedemark LL, Davies SF,
That study followed a homeless patient with highly infectious tuberculosis who
was a regular patron of a neighborhood bar. Id. The result: that one individual, in
active tuberculosis cases and 27 of which were, at the time, infected but without
disease. Id.
2020). Importantly, the study “noted many COVID-19 clusters were associated
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cheering at clubs, [or] having conversations in bars ….” Id. In other words, the
routine activities that occur in a bar setting are the very activities that exacerbate
such a high risk of exposure and require close attention during this pandemic. Like
bars, restaurants can easily become crowded places where social distancing is
minimal and patrons are engaged in close interaction prone to the spread of viral
droplets. But unlike bars, measures to minimize the spread of viral droplets can
more easily be implemented in restaurants (less tables used, more take-out versus
when those protections are not implemented and consistently enforced, science
For example, a published study from China concluded that COVID-19 viral
and air conditioned ventilation. See Lu, Jianyun et al., COVID-19 outbreak
4
Likewise, a not yet peer reviewed article also concludes that poor ventilation
conditions in a restaurant facilitated transmission of COVID-19. See Li, Yuguo, et
al., Evidence for probable aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a poorly
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Similarly, another published study from Korea found that a person showing
restaurant where people were sitting within one meter (just over 3 feet) of each
other and had no direct contact (not an atypical social distance in a bar setting).
See Kim N.J., Choe P.G., Park S.J., et al., A cluster of tertiary transmissions of
COVID-19 could transmit the virus from the first day of illness through daily
Governor Ducey should temporarily close bars to combat the spread of COVID-19.
That science unquestionably demonstrates that bars pose a unique risk for the
spread of COVID-19, warranting not only close scrutiny and regulation in order to
overcome the devastation that is COVID-19, but more than justifying Governor
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bar, inside, is bad news … [w]e really have got to stop that.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bars-closing-stop-coronavirus-covid-19-science-
michigan-california/ (last visited Jul. 17, 2020). The Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (the “CDC”), addressing the risks bars pose concerning the
transmission of COVID-19, has stated that the “Highest Risk” is present where
consumption occurs on-site, even with both indoor and outdoor seating, when
seating capacity is not reduced and tables are not spaced at least 6 feet apart.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/organizations/business-
unequivocally states that bars and restaurants should “[a]void group events,
Regarding Arizona specifically, a July 14, 2020 report prepared for the
“[c]ontinue bar and gym closures in hot spot counties” like Maricopa and Pima.
See https://publicintegrity.org/health/coronavirus-and-inequality/exclusive-white-
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the document prepared for the White House Coronavirus Task Force updated as of
Jul. 19, 2020). That same report offered Arizona the following policy
“[d]o not got to bars, nightclubs, or gyms”; and (2) with regard to “Public
The decision to close bars in an effort to save lives and prevent the spread of
COVID-19 measures. The following map shows that eight states and the District
of Columbia have left in place mandates for the closure of bars, nine others (like
Arizona) have newly closed bars, and two have enacted new service limits:
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See https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/state-data-and-policy-
Tellingly, most states in the Southwestern United States have closed bars or
otherwise taken action to closely regulate their activity to help curb the spread of
COVID-19. And of all the states that border Arizona, only one (Utah) has
that “[t]he more alcohol or other substances people consume, the less they may be
Experts and professional associations agree with Arizona’s (and many other
states’) decision to temporarily close bars during the COVID-19 pandemic. For
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example, the Texas Medical Association ranks going to a bar as among the riskiest
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See https://www.texmed.org/uploadedFiles/Current/2016_Public_Health/Infect
ious_Diseases/309193%20Risk%20Assessment%20Chart%20V2_FINAL.pdf (last
visited July 22, 2020) (Texas Medical Association). Nebraska Medicine ranks
going to a bar as one of the riskiest activities (“9” out of “9”) for the transmission
of COVID-19.
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See https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/7-steps-to-identify-risky-covid-19-
health/coronavirus/covid-19-risk-chart/63-723ae01d-4dc6-4a17-a8f0-
1e68013515af (last visited Jul. 19, 2020). Dr. Janowski ranked going to a bar a
“9” out of “10,” with nobody wearing masks or practicing social distancing, and a
“7” out of “10” when social distancing is observed and masks are worn. Id.
The requirements of EO 2020-43 are far from irrational and comport with
positive cases in Arizona and 2,974 deaths as a result of COVID-19. The CDC has
reported that, throughout the country, the actual number of positive cases is
coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-labs-interactive-serology-
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After bars were allowed to reopen on May 13, Arizona saw a sharp increase
in the number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily. On May 13, 2020 Arizona
reported 413 new cases. On June 29, 2020 Arizona set a daily record for new
cases: 5,385 (one of several records set in May and June--including repeated daily
records for hospitalizations). Tellingly, during the month of June, there were only
two days where the number of new COVID-19 cases was less than 1,000.
The number of deaths from COVID-19 also has increased since the phased
reopening in May but, fortunately, that increase has not been as sharp as the
number of new cases, hospitalizations, and ventilators in use. That said, in June,
positive, with that age group representing 47% of all positive tests and 22% of all
hospitalizations. And even with the significant efforts and sacrifices made so far,
there still is “community spread,” which means someone gets COVID-19 without
any known contact with a sick person, and the virus continues to spread. In short:
And given the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in Arizona since May, the
Director simply cannot ignore the evidence described throughout this brief that
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precautions, such as the use of face coverings and social distancing. Moreover,
bars generally attract a younger adult population, which currently represents the
demographic more likely to act is if they are not infected, when in fact they are;
appropriate given the threat COVID-19 presents to Arizona’s health care system;
such as bars, and activities that pose a higher risk of spreading COVID-19, is
COVID-19 cases since the reopening in May, including through the enactment of
EO 2020-43, all the efforts over the past few months to address COVID-19 would
have been for naught, and the spread of COVID-19 would exponentially increase
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supplies and hospital space availability, which in turn will help ensure that health
care providers are not forced to make triage decisions as to which patient should be
saved and are otherwise able to protect our most vulnerable citizens;
resources since the beginning of this pandemic, the recent surge of COVID-19
cases, coupled with the limited remaining availability of hospital beds and
2020-43 encourage physical distancing measures which the Director believes are
critical to continue to slow the spread and impact of COVID-19, lessen the strain
on health care providers, and ensure the on-going capabilities of Arizona’s health
care system.
In the end, the Director fully, and without reservation, believes that
curb the spread of COVID-19 and protect the health and wellness of all Arizonans.
II. CONCLUSION
EO 2020-43 has helped, and will continue to help, curb the spread of
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the public, it is the Director’s professional opinion that COVID-19 cases will rise,
placing renewed pressures on the health care system, and increasing the threat to
all Arizonans. In that event, many more Arizonans will get sick, many will suffer,
and some will die. From the Director’s perspective, the temporary burden EO
2020-43 places on bars is far outweighed by the lives that will be saved.
Accordingly, for the foregoing reasons, the Court should deny jurisdiction
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APPENDIX
Document Page
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ARIZONA
STATE REPORT | 07.19.2020
SUMMARY
• Arizona is in the red zone for cases, indicating more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week, and the
red zone for test positivity, indicating a rate above 10%.
• Arizona has seen a decrease in new cases and a decrease in testing positivity over the past week.
• The following three counties had the highest number of new cases over the past 3 weeks: 1. Maricopa County, 2.
Pima County, and 3. Yuma County. These counties represent 86.3 percent of new cases in Arizona.
• Arizona had 297 new cases per 100,000 population in the past week, compared to a national average of 140 per
100,000.
• The federal government has deployed the following staff as assets to support the state response: 10 to support
operations activities from FEMA; 150 to support medical activities from ASPR; 2 to support operations activities
from ASPR; 6 from CDC; 1 to support operations activities from USCG; 63 to support medical activities from VA;
and 3 to support operations activities from VA.
• The federal government has supported a surge testing site in Phoenix.
• During Jul 15 - Jul 17, on average, 149 patients with confirmed COVID-19 and 259 patients with suspected COVID-
19 were reported as newly admitted each day to hospitals in Arizona. An average of 61 percent of hospitals
reported each day during this period; therefore, this may be an underestimate of the actual total number of
COVID-related hospitalizations. Underreporting may lead to a lower allocation of critical supplies. *
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Continue weekly testing of all workers in assisted living and long-term care facilities and require masks and social distancing for all visitors.
• Mandate public use of masks in all current and evolving hot spots.
• Continue bar and gym closures in hot spot counties.
• Move to outdoor dining and limit indoor dining to less than 25% of normal capacity.
• Ask citizens to limit social gatherings to 10 or fewer people.
• Encourage individuals that have participated in large social gatherings to get tested.
• Increase messaging regarding the risk of serious disease in all age groups with preexisting obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus.
• Continue the scale-up of testing, moving to community-led neighborhood testing and pooled household testing in Maricopa, Pima, and Yuma
counties.
• Work with local communities to implement and provide clear guidance for households that test positive, including on individual isolation
procedures.
• Continue to enhance contact tracing and ensure the ability of cases and contacts to quarantine or isolate safely.
• Monitor testing data to identify additional sites of increased transmission and focus public health resources on them.
• Test households in one tube with rapid turnaround testing. For households that test positive, isolate and conduct follow-up individual tests.
• Expand testing capacity in public health labs, adding shifts and weekend shifts to decrease turnaround times; institute 2:1 pooling of test
specimens.
• Tribal Nations: Continued enforcement of social distancing and masking measures in areas of increased transmission. Continue enhanced testing
activities. Support 100% pooled testing in households with isolation for positive households to ensure all outbreaks are immediately curtailed.
Increase supplies of Abbott ID Now to test individuals in positive households.
• Specific, detailed guidance on community mitigation measures can be found on the CDC website.
The purpose of this report is to develop a shared understanding of the current status of the pandemic at the national, regional, state and local levels. We recognize
that data at the state level may differ from that available at the federal level. Our objective is to use consistent data sources and methods that allow for comparisons
to be made across localities. We appreciate your continued support in identifying data discrepancies and improving data completeness and sharing across systems.
We look forward to your feedback.
* This figure may differ from state data due to differences in hospital lists between federal and state systems or inclusion of hospitals that
are not admitting COVID-19 patients. We are working to incorporate feedback on an ongoing basis to update these figures. These data
exclude psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals. COVID-19
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COVID-19
ARIZONA
STATE REPORT | 07.19.2020
STATE, % CHANGE FEMA/HHS
STATE, FROM PREVIOUS REGION, UNITED STATES,
LAST WEEK WEEK LAST WEEK LAST WEEK
DIAGNOSTIC TEST
17.7% -3.8%* 10.3% 9.1%
POSITIVITY RATE
COVID-19
ARIZONA
STATE REPORT | 07.19.2020
LOCALITIES IN LOCALITIES IN
RED ZONE YELLOW ZONE
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler
Tucson
Yuma
METRO Show Low
AREA
11 0
Lake Havasu City-Kingman
Flagstaff N/A
(CBSA) Prescott Valley-Prescott
Sierra Vista-Douglas
LAST WEEK Nogales
Payson
Safford
Maricopa
Pima
Yuma
13
Pinal
2
Navajo
COUNTY Mohave Apache
Coconino Greenlee
LAST WEEK Top 12 shown Yavapai
(full list Cochise
below) Santa Cruz
Gila
Graham
All Red Counties: Maricopa, Pima, Yuma, Pinal, Navajo, Mohave, Coconino, Yavapai, Cochise, Santa Cruz, Gila,
Graham, La Paz
Red Zone: Those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per
100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result above 10%.
Yellow Zone: Those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases between 10-
100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result between 5-10%, or one of those two conditions and one condition
qualifying as being in the “Red Zone.”
Note: Top 12 locations are selected based on the highest number of new cases in the last three weeks.
DATA SOURCES
Cases and Deaths: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match
those reported directly by the state. Data is through 7/17/2020; last week is 7/11 - 7/17, three weeks is 6/27 - 7/17.
Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data through 7/15/2020. Last week is 7/9 - 7/15.
Testing data may be backfilled over time, resulting in changes week-to-week in testing data. It is critical that states provide as up-to-
date testing data as possible. 24
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Public Officials
• Close bars and gyms, and create outdoor dining opportunities with pedestrian areas
• Limit social gatherings to 10 people or fewer
• Institute routine weekly testing of all workers in assisted living and long-term care facilities. Require masks for all staff and prohibit
visitors
• Ensure that all business retailers and personal services require masks and can safely social distance
• Increase messaging on the risk of serious disease for individuals in all age groups with preexisting obesity, hypertension, and diabetes
mellitus, and recommend to shelter in place
• Work with local community groups to provide targeted, tailored messaging to communities with high case rates, and increase community
level testing
• Recruit more contact tracers as community outreach workers to ensure all cases are contacted and all positive households are
individually tested within 24 hours
• Provide isolation facilities outside of households if COVID-positive individuals can’t quarantine successfully
Testing
• Move to community-led neighborhood testing and work with local community groups to increase access to testing
• Surge testing and contact tracing resources to neighborhoods and zip codes with highest case rates
• Diagnostic pooling: Laboratories should use pooling of samples to increase testing access and reduce turnaround times to under 12
hours. Consider pools of 2-3 individuals in high incidence settings and 5:1 pools in setting where test positivity is under 10%
• Surveillance pooling: For family and cohabitating households, screen entire households in a single test by pooling specimens of all
members into single collection device
Public Officials
• Limit gyms to 25% occupancy and close bars until percent positive rates are under 3%; create outdoor dining opportunities with
pedestrian areas
• Limit social gatherings to 25 people or fewer
• Institute routine weekly testing of all workers in assisted living and long-term care facilities. Require masks for all staff and prohibit
visitors
• Ensure that all business retailers and personal services require masks and can safely social distance
• Increase messaging on the risk of serious disease for individuals in all age groups with preexisting obesity, hypertension, and diabetes
mellitus, and recommend to shelter in place
• Work with local community groups to provide targeted, tailored messaging to communities with high case rates, and increase community
level testing
• Recruit more contact tracers as community outreach workers to ensure all cases are contacted and all positive households are
individually tested within 24 hours
• Provide isolation facilities outside of households if COVID-positive individuals can’t quarantine successfully
Testing
• Move to community-led neighborhood testing and work with local community groups to increase access to testing
• Surge testing and contact tracing resources to neighborhoods and zip codes with highest case rates
• Diagnostic pooling: Laboratories should use pooling of samples to increase testing access and reduce turnaround times to under 12
hours. Consider pools of 3-5 individuals
• Surveillance pooling: For family and cohabitating households, screen entire households in a single test by pooling specimens of all
members into single collection device
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COVID-19
ARIZONA
STATE REPORT | 07.19.2020
NEW CASES
TESTING
DATA SOURCES
Cases: County-level data from USAFacts. State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts;
therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 7/17/2020.
Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data through 7/15/2020.
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COVID-19
DATA SOURCES
Cases: County-level data from USAFacts through 7/17/2020. Last 3 weeks is 6/27 - 7/17.
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COVID-19
ARIZONA
STATE REPORT | 07.19.2020
DATA SOURCES
Cases: County-level data from USAFacts through 7/17/2020. Last week is 7/11 - 7/17, previous week is 7/4 - 7/10
Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data through 7/15/2020. Last week is 7/9 -
7/15, previous week is 7/2 - 7/8. Testing data may be backfilled over time, resulting in changes week-to-week in testing data. It is
critical that states provide as up-to-date testing data as possible.
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COVID-19
National Picture
NEW CASES PER 100,000 LAST WEEK
DATA SOURCES
Cases: County-level data from USAFacts through 7/17/2020. Last week is 7/11 - 7/17
Testing: Combination of CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data and HHS
Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial
labs) through 7/15/2020. Last week is 7/9 - 7/15. Testing data may be backfilled over time, resulting in changes week-to-
week in testing data. It is critical that states provide as up-to-date testing data as possible.
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COVID-19
Methods
STATE REPORT | 07.19.2020
COLOR THRESHOLDS: Results for each indicator should be taken in context of the findings
for related indicators (e.g., changes in case incidence and testing volume)
Metric Green Yellow Red
New cases per 100,000 population per week <10 10-100 >100
Percent change in new cases per 100,000 population <-10% -10% - 10% >10%
Diagnostic test result positivity rate <5% 5%-10% >10%
Change in test positivity <-0.5% -0.5%-0.5% >0.5%
Total diagnostic tests resulted per 100,000 population >1000 500-1000 <500
per week
Percent change in tests per 100,000 population >10% -10% - 10% <-10%
COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population per week <0.5 0.5-2 >2
Percent change in deaths per 100,000 population <-10% -10% - 10% >10%
Skilled Nursing Facilities with at least one COVID-19 case 0% 0.1%-5% >5%
Change in SNFs with at least one COVID-19 case <-0.5% -0.5%-0.5% >0.5%
DATA NOTES
• Cases and deaths: County-level data from USAFacts as of 13:00 EDT on 07/18/2020. State values are calculated by
aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, values may not match those reported directly by the
state. Data are reviewed on a daily basis against internal and verified external sources and, if needed, adjusted.
Last week data are from 7/11 to 7/17; previous week data are from 7/4 to 7/10.
• Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data are used to describe
state-level totals when able to be disaggregated from serology test results and to describe county-level totals
when information is available on patients’ county of residence or healthcare providers’ practice location. HHS
Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and
commercial labs) are used otherwise. Some states did not report on certain days, which may affect the total
number of tests resulted and positivity rate values. Total diagnostic tests are the number of tests performed, not
the number of individuals tested. Diagnostic test positivity rate is the number of positive tests divided by the
number of tests performed and resulted. Last week data are from 7/9 to 7/15; previous week data are from 7/2 to
7/8. HHS Protect data is recent as of 16:30 EDT on 07/19/2020. Testing data are inclusive of everything received
and processed by the CELR system as of 14:00 EDT on 07/19/2020. Testing data may be backfilled over time,
resulting in changes week-to-week in testing data. It is critical that states provide as up-to-date testing data as
possible.
• Mobility: Descartes Labs. These data depict the median distance moved across a collection of mobile devices to
estimate the level of human mobility within a locality; 100% represents the baseline mobility level. Data is recent
as of 13:00 EDT on 07/18/2020 and through 7/16/2020.
• Hospitalizations: Unified hospitalization dataset in HHS Protect. This figure may differ from state data due to
differences in hospital lists and reporting between federal and state systems. These data exclude psychiatric,
rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals.
• Skilled Nursing Facilities: National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Quality checks are performed on data
submitted to the NHSN. Data that fail these quality checks or appear inconsistent with surveillance protocols may
be excluded from analysis. Also note that data presented by NHSN is more recent than the data publicly posted by
CMS. Therefore, data presented may differ slightly from those publicly posted by CMS.
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