CSIS Brief - A Frozen Line in The Himalayas
CSIS Brief - A Frozen Line in The Himalayas
CSIS Brief - A Frozen Line in The Himalayas
A Frozen Line
in the Himalayas
By Richard M. Rossow, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Kriti Upadhyaya AUGUST 2020
THE ISSUE
The United States has changed rules and created novel programs to strengthen defense ties with India. However, to many Western analysts,
India remains largely absent from key conflicts the United States considers globally significant. This report contends that Washington
must use a different lens in judging India’s involvement: looking beyond the periphery of the United States and its allies, it should instead
consider India’s growing role as a regional security provider in Asia. One region where India’s influence is strongly felt is the Himalayas,
where the territorial integrity and security of smaller nations across China’s western border hangs in the balance. Through satellite imagery
analysis, this report presents how India is on the front line of China’s expansionist territorial ambitions.
U
.S.-India defense ties continue to expand viewed as insufficient to change course. India chose a
and deepen, but questions linger in position of non-alignment during the Cold War, which was
Washington as to whether there is incompatible with Washington’s “black and white” view
merit in these efforts. The United States of the world. The United States chose to build stronger
has changed rules and created novel relations with India’s two regional rivals, China and
programs to strengthen defense ties Pakistan, as part of Cold War calculations; meanwhile,
with India. However, to many Western India cemented security ties with the Soviet Union in
analysts, India remains largely absent at the front line order to gain access to modern military platforms.
of key conflicts that the United States considers globally
U.S.-India strategic ties only started gaining momentum
significant. But this is the wrong lens to interpret India’s
when U.S. policy leaders recognized that their relationship
growing security role. India faces key challenges of its own
outside of the U.S. periphery, one of which lies in the cold with India required a new type of partnership. This new
reaches of the Himalayas, where the territorial integrity relationship would not fit neatly into past boxes, such as
and security of smaller nations across China’s western “treaty ally,” and it meant that the United States would
periphery hangs in the balance. have to put some big ideas on the table that it had rarely—if
ever—offered any partner. Examples include shepherding
Government-to-government relations between the
India into the club of declared nuclear powers and looking
United States and India were chilly during most of the
for novel ways to transfer defense technologies that India
latter period of the Cold War. Strategic choices by both
could use to build up its own military industrial base.
nations created a gulf between them, and the merits of
spending heavy political capital to bridge this gulf were
The Doklam Plateau; boxes A, B, C, D indicate areas of analyses. Image from 2017. China is present in Doklam. Indian military post at Doka La lies to
the left.
CSIS prepared imagery analysis covering activity on a
portion of the Doklam Plateau (also known as Zhoglam
or Donglang) during the three years from 2017 to
2019. The Doklam Plateau lies at the junction of the
Bhutanese, Chinese, and Indian borders and is considered
to be Bhutanese territory by most of the international
community. China, however, has repeatedly expressed
territorial claims over the area and has undertaken large-
scale encroachment activities, as shown in the imagery in
this brief.
Same area; image from 2019. China is present in Doklam. Indian military post at Doka
La lies to the left.
THE DISPUTE
The Doklam dispute is grounded in the Chinese belief
that the “Thibet-Sikkim Convention [sic], 1890” settled
the border issue (the Chinese have been selective in their
renunciation of British treaties). However, Bhutan was
not party to the 1890 convention. China holds that Mount
Gipmochi is the trijunction point, while the Indian and
Bhutanese governments claim the trijunction point is near
The Trijunction Point (Batang La) between China, Bhutan, and India. China is present
in Doklam. Batang La. Despite claiming Gipmochi as the trijunction
point, the Chinese have been reluctant to formally
articulate their view on the location of Mount Gipmochi.
The confusion is amplified by the existence of Mount
Gyemochen near Mount Gipmochi, thereby complicating
the location of the real Gipmochi and Chinese claims. The
1890 convention does not provide any maps, nor was any
survey done, which leaves much to the imagination. The
first survey of the Bhutan boundary and the first official
map of Bhutan were made with the help of the Survey of
1. The Doklam Plateau and the territory claimed by China encompasses the 609.51 km2 Bhutanese Jigme Khesar Strict Nature Reserve. The reserve was originally
established in the mid-1990s as the Toorsa Strict Nature Reserve but was subsequently renamed during 2014 as the Jigme Khesar Strict Nature Reserve. See http://
www.dofps.gov.bt/?page_id=234 and http://www.wwfbhutan.org.bt/projects_/bhutan_biological_conservation_complex/jigme_khesar_strict_nature_reserve__/.
Chinese defensive positions, ongoing construction activity, military base Same area zoomed in; image from 2019. Chinese helicopter pads.
development, and helicopter pads. Image from 2017.
Same area; image from 2019. Chinese defensive positions, ongoing construction Paved road, basketball court, on-going road construction, and military base
activity, military base development, paved roads, and well-developed helicopter pads. development by the Chinese. Image from 2019.
Chinese ongoing road construction and recently installed concrete batch plant in
Doklam. Image from 2019.
Same area zoomed in; image from 2019. Chinese ongoing road construction and
recently installed concrete batch plant in Doklam.
Same area zoomed in; image from 2017. Only defensive positions present.
CSIS BRIEFS | WWW.CSIS.ORG | 8
general direction of Gyemo Chen.2 Preliminary analysis
suggests that this activity follows a general pattern:
• Extension of the Chinese road network to the
Bhutanese border;
• Extension of these road networks across the Bhutanese
border into the Doklam Plateau area;
• Establishment of small Chinese military bases and
defensive fighting positions;
• Construction of helicopter landing pads;
• Paving of the newly graded roads; and
• Further expansion to the southwest and south. Another basketball court built by the Chinese in Doklam, indicating permanent
presence. Image from 2017.
To date, no large military facilities have been constructed
by the Chinese in the area under study. However,
satellite imagery taken in 2018 and 2019 shows that an
excavation area of approximately four hectares has been
undertaken near the Chinese border on the southern
axis (27.316316° by 88.953954°). The size, layout, and
location of this excavation suggests that it could be used
for the establishment of a larger military-related facility.
The validity of this supposition, however, requires future
observation and study.
2. The names and spellings used here are based upon those accepted by the U.S. National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA).
CSIS BRIEFS are produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution
focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific
policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be
solely those of the author(s). © 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.
Cover Photo: ED JONES/AFP via Getty Images