Chapter One: The Importance of Technological Innovation
Chapter One: The Importance of Technological Innovation
Chapter One: The Importance of Technological Innovation
Introduction
THE IMPORTANCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
technological In many industries technological innovation is now the most important driver of
innovation competitive success. Firms in a wide range of industries rely on products developed
The act of within the past five years for almost one-third (or more) of their sales and profits. For
introducing a
new device,
example, at Johnson & Johnson, products developed within the last five years account
method, or for over 30 percent of sales, and sales from products developed within the past five
material for years at 3M have hit as high as 45 percent in recent years.
application to The increasing importance of innovation is due in part to the globalization of mar-
commercial or kets. Foreign competition has put pressure on firms to continuously innovate in order
practical
objectives.
to produce differentiated products and services. Introducing new products helps firms
protect their margins, while investing in process innovation helps firms lower their
costs. Advances in information technology also have played a role in speeding the
pace of innovation. Computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing have
made it easier and faster for firms to design and produce new products, while flex-
ible manufacturing technologies have made shorter production runs economical and
have reduced the importance of production economies of scale.1 These technologies
help firms develop and produce more product variants that closely meet the needs
of narrowly defined customer groups, thus achieving differentiation from competi-
tors. For example, in 2015, Toyota offered 21 different passenger vehicle lines under
the Toyota brand (e.g., Camry, Prius, Highlander, and Tundra). Within each of the
vehicle lines, Toyota also offered several different models (e.g., Camry L, Camry LE,
and Camry SE) with different features and at different price points. In total, Toyota
offered 167 car models ranging in price from $14,845 (for the Yaris three-door lift-
back) to $80,115 (for the Land Cruiser), and seating anywhere from three passengers
(e.g., Tacoma Regular Cab truck) to eight passengers (Sienna Minivan). On top of
this, Toyota also produced a range of luxury vehicles under its Lexus brand. Similarly,
Samsung introduced 52 unique smartphones in 2014 alone. Companies can use broad
portfolios of product models to help ensure they can penetrate almost every conceiv-
able market niche. While producing multiple product variations used to be expensive
1
2 Chapter 1 Introduction
FIGURE 1.2
Gross $50,000
Domestic
Product per $45,000
Capita, 1969–
$40,000
2014 (in Real
2010 $US $35,000
Billions)
Source: USDA
$30,000
Economic Research
Service, International $25,000
Macroeconomic
Dataset (http://www.
$20,000
ers.usda.gov, accessed
August 17, 2015)
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
20 9
20 5
20 3
20 7
20 1
69
99
95
89
85
13
93
83
79
97
75
87
73
77
11
0
0
0
0
0
91
81
71
20
20
19
19
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19
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19
19
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19
19
19
19
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19
World Developed Countries Developing Countries
In a large-scale survey administered by the Prod- significantly longer, clocking in at 57 weeks. The
uct Development and Management Association development of radical products or technologies
(PDMA), researchers examined the length of time took the longest, averaging 82 weeks. The study
it took firms to develop a new product from initial also found that on average, for more innovative
concept to market introduction. The study divided and radical projects, firms reported significantly
new product development projects into catego- shorter cycle times than those reported in the pre-
ries representing their degree of innovativeness: vious PDMA surveys conducted in 1995 and 2004.
“radical” projects, “more innovative” projects, and a
Adapted from Markham, SK, and Lee, H. “Product
“incremental” projects. On average, incremental Development and Management Association’s 2012
projects took only 33 weeks from concept to mar- comparative performance assessment study,” Journal
ket introduction. More innovative projects took of Product Innovation Management 30 (2013), issue 3:
408–429.
a project is even formally initiated. According to one study that combined data from
prior studies of innovation success rates with data on patents, venture capital fund-
ing, and surveys, it takes about 3,000 raw ideas to produce one significantly new and
successful commercial product.8 The pharmaceutical industry demonstrates this
well—only one out of every 5,000 compounds makes it to the pharmacist’s shelf, and
only one-third of those will be successful enough to recoup their R&D costs.9 Further-
more, most studies indicate that it costs at least $1.5 billion and a decade of research to
bring a new Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved pharmaceutical product
to market! 10 The innovation process is thus often conceived of as a funnel, with many
potential new product ideas going in the wide end, but very few making it through the
development process (see Figure 1.3).
FIGURE 1.3
The New Prod-
uct Develop-
ment Funnel in
Pharmaceuticals
5,000 125
2-3 drugs tested 1 drug
Compounds Leads Rx
FIGURE 1.4
The Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
Chapter 6
Defining the Organization’s
Strategic Direction
Feedback
8 Chapter 1 Introduction
In Chapter Eleven, we will review a series of “best practices” that have been identi-
fied in managing the new product development process. This includes such questions as:
Should new product development processes be performed sequentially or in parallel?
What are the advantages and disadvantages of using project champions? What are
the benefits and risks of involving customers and/or suppliers in the development
process? What tools can the firm use to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of
its new product development processes? How does the firm assess whether its new
product development process is successful? This chapter provides an extensive review
of methods that have been developed to improve the management of new product
development projects and to measure their performance.
Chapter Twelve builds on the previous chapter by illuminating how team composi-
tion and structure will influence project outcomes. This chapter addresses questions
such as: How big should teams be? What are the advantages and disadvantages of
choosing highly diverse team members? Do teams need to be collocated? When
should teams be full-time and/or permanent? What type of team leader and manage-
ment practices should be used for the team? This chapter provides detailed guidelines
for constructing new product development teams that are matched to the type of new
product development project under way.
Finally, in Chapter Thirteen, we will look at innovation deployment strategies.
This chapter will address such questions as: How do we accelerate the adoption of the
technological innovation? How do we decide whether to use licensing or OEM agree-
ments? Does it make more sense to use penetration pricing or a market-skimming
price? When should we sell direct versus using intermediaries? What strategies can
the firm use to encourage distributors and complementary goods providers to sup-
port the innovation? What are the advantages and disadvantages of major marketing
methods? This chapter complements traditional marketing, distribution, and pricing
courses by looking at how a deployment strategy can be crafted that especially targets
the needs of a new technological innovation.
Summary 1. Technological innovation is now often the single most important competitive
of driver in many industries. Many firms receive more than one-third of their sales
and profits from products developed within the past five years.
Chapter
2. The increasing importance of innovation has been driven largely by the global-
ization of markets and the advent of advanced technologies that enable more
rapid product design and allow shorter production runs to be economically
feasible.
3. Technological innovation has a number of important effects on society, includ-
ing fostering increased GDP, enabling greater communication and mobility, and
improving medical treatments.
4. Technological innovation may also pose some negative externalities, including
pollution, resource depletion, and other unintended consequences of technological
change.
10 Chapter 1 Introduction
Suggested Classics
Further Arrow, K. J., “Economic welfare and the allocation of resources for inventions,”
Reading in The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, ed.
R. Nelson (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1962), pp. 609–25.
Mansfield, E., “Contributions of R and D to economic growth in the United States,”
Science CLXXV (1972), pp. 477–86.
Schumpeter, J. A., The Theory of Economic Development (1911; English translation,
Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1936).
Stalk,G. and Hout, T.M., “Competing Against Time: How Time-Based Competition Is
Reshaping Global Markets” (New York: Free Press, 1990).
Recent Work
Ahlstrom, D., “Innovation and growth: How business contributes to society,” Acad-
emy of Management Perspectives, (2010) August, pp. 10–23.
Baumol, W. J., The Free Market Innovation Machine: Analyzing the Growth Miracle
of Capitalism (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002).
Editors, “The top 25 innovations of the last 25 years,” Popular Science (2012),
November 15th. (www.popsci.com)
Friedman, T. L., The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century (New
York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2006).
Schilling, M.A. 2015. Towards dynamic efficiency: Innovation and its implications for
antitrust. Forthcoming in Antitrust Bulletin.
Endnotes 1. J. P. Womack, D. T. Jones, and D. Roos, The Machine That Changed the World (New York:
Rawson Associates, 1990).
2. W. Qualls, R. W. Olshavsky, and R. E. Michaels, “Shortening of the PLC—an Empirical Test,”
Journal of Marketing 45 (1981), pp. 76–80.
3. M. A. Schilling and C. E. Vasco, “Product and Process Technological Change and the Adoption of
Modular Organizational Forms,” in Winning Strategies in a Deconstructing World, eds. R. Bresser,
M. Hitt, R. Nixon, and D. Heuskel (Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons, 2000), pp. 25–50.
CHAPTER 3. CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS FOR MEASURING BUSINESS INNOVATION │ 67
This chapter provides a set of definitions to guide statistical surveys of innovation within
the Business sector, including a taxonomy for different types of innovation. The definitions
within this chapter also help characterise business enterprises in relation to their innovations
and their activities in pursuit of innovation. The aim of his chap er s defini ions and
complementary guidance is to facilitate the collection and reporting of comparable data
on innovation and related activities for firms in different countries and industries and for
firms of different sizes and structures, ranging from small single-product firms to large
multinational firms responsible for a wide range of products (goods or services). The
chapter concludes with recommendations on the use of definitions in surveys.
3.1. Introduction
3.1. Based on the concepts presented in Chapter 2, this chapter provides a set of
definitions to guide statistical surveys of innovation within the Business sector. As innovation
is a pervasive, heterogeneous and multi-faceted phenomenon, clear and concise definitions
for innovation and related concepts are required for accurate measurement and interpretation
of business innovation activities and to establish a common standard that serves the needs
of the producers and users of innovation statistics.
3.2. The definitions given in this chapter facilitate the collection and reporting of comparable
data on innovation and related activities for firms in different countries and industries and
for firms of different sizes and structures, ranging from small single-product firms to large
multinational firms that produce a wide range of products, including services.
3.3. Section 3.2 contains the main definitions for measuring innovation in the Business
enterprise sector. Section 3.3 develops various taxonomies of business innovation including
by type, and by novelty and impacts. Changes that are not innovations are described in
section 3.4. Section 3.5 categorises firms according to their innovation status. Section 3.6
concludes with recommendations on the use of definitions in surveys.
3.21. Innovation changes the characteristics of one or more products or business processes
and consequently common usage describes innovation in terms of its purpose or object. For
example, managers may refer to their firm s ser ice inno ations or to a deli er s stem
innovation. Information on the object of an innovation is useful for assessing the purpose
of the innovation, its general characteristics, its potential impacts on the firm, and the types
of innovation activities that are relevant to its development and implementation.
Product innovation
3.24. The term product is defined in the System of National Accounts and encompasses
both goods and services. Products are the economic output of production activities. They
can be exchanged and used as inputs in the production of other goods and services, as final
consumption by households or governments, or for investment, as in the case of financial
products (EC et al., 2009).
A product innovation is a new or improved good or service that differs significantly
from he firm s pre io s goods or ser ices and ha has been in rod ced on he marke .
Types of products
3.30. Product innovations can involve two generic types of products: goods and services.
These product types have been introduced in Chapter 2 and are defined below drawing on
the System of National Accounts (SNA) (EC et al., 2009).
Goods include tangible objects and some knowledge-capturing products (see
below) over which ownership rights can be established and whose ownership can
be transferred through market transactions.
Services are intangible activities that are produced and consumed simultaneously
and that change the conditions (e.g. physical, psychological, etc.) of users. The
engagement of users through their time, availability, attention, transmission of
information, or effort is often a necessary condition that leads to the co-production
of services by users and the firm. The attributes or experience of a service can
therefore depend on the input of users. Services can also include some knowledge-
capturing products (see below).
3.31. As noted in Chapter 2, the dividing line between goods and services can sometimes
be difficult to establish and some products can have characteristics of both. A company can
sell goods to its customers or rent their use as a service, as is often the case for durable
consumer goods and for assets for business production. Firms can also bundle ancillary
services such as service contracts or insurance with their goods.
3.32. Knowledge-capturing products (as identified in the SNA) can have the characteristics
of either a good or service and concern the provision, storage, safekeeping, communication
and dissemination of digital information that users can access repeatedly. These products
can be stored on physical objects and infrastructure, such as electronic media or the Cloud.
An example is when access to digital products such as music, films and books is provided
on demand to consumers for a fee. Knowledge-capturing products are similar to a good if
consumers can share or sell them to others after purchase, but they are similar to a service
if the cons mer s rights are limited b a license that restricts sharing or selling. Digital
technologies, through reducing the cost of copying and exchanging information to a
negligible amount, have contributed to the proliferation of knowledge-capturing products.
3.33. At a minimum, it is recommended to collect data on both goods and services.
Surveys should specifically refer to services to ensure that the questions are relevant to
respondents from service sector firms. Where possible, data should be collected on
knowledge-capturing products, especially those of a digital nature, to support research on
the prevalence of these products and the factors that influence their development.
Table 3.1. Functional categories for identifying the type of business process innovations
Source: Adapted from Brown (2008), B siness processes and b siness f nctions: A ne a of looking at
emplo ment , www.bls.gov/mlr/2008/12/art3full.pdf and Eurostat (2018), Glossary of Statistical Terms,
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Glossary:Business_functions.
3.40. Table 3.1 provides a list of six main business functions based on the relevant
management and statistical literature that may be the object of innovation. The function
production of goods and services constitutes the core function of a firm, whereas the
other five functions comprise ancillary activities to support production and bring products
to the market. Firms can develop business process innovations that target one or more
functions. For example, the implementation of an online ordering system could represent
an innovation in to the distribution and logistics business functions. The short descriptions
of each business function, followed by the detailed description, are recommended for use
in data collection. The list is sufficiently brief for use in surveys and provides moderate
comparability with the definitions of process, organisational, and marketing innovations in
the third edition of the Oslo Manual. More detailed applications of this taxonomy can
improve comparability with the results of innovation surveys that followed the third edition
of this manual. The new categories also cover areas that were not identified in the third
edition, such as changes in financing (item 5c) and changes in functions dedicated to
product or process development (item 6).
3.41. The latter captures business process innovations in the business function dedicated
to the development of products and other business processes of the firm. There was no
equivalent type of business process in earlier editions of this manual. Examples of
innovations in this function include the use of new gene editing technologies to develop
either existing or new plant varieties or pharmaceuticals and the application of data mining
analysis to large databases to identify potential market development opportunities. Other
examples for an innovation in this category include the adoption of new methodologies
such as design thinking, co-creation, rapid prototyping or high-throughput screening. An
innovation of this type may just seek to introduce incremental modifications that do not
qualify as innovations e.g. to be able to cater to different c stomers needs or may seek
to bring about product or business process innovations. However, there is no guarantee that
such innovations will ultimately materialise.
3.42. For data collection, some functions can be combined into a single item or disaggregated.
For example, functions 1 and 6 could be combined into a single function that includes both
production activities and the development of products and business processes. Functions 3
and 5 could be further disaggregated to facilitate comparison with the definitions of
organisational and marketing innovation in the third edition of the manual (see next section
for details).
Comparison of innovation types with the previous edition of the Oslo Manual
3.43. Table 3.2 compares the types of product and business process innovations used in
this manual with the definitions used in the third edition of the Oslo Manual.
3.44. Two types of marketing innovation that are included in the third edition of the Oslo
Manual (adoption of methods for product placement and product promotion or pricing) are
not listed in the short description of the six business functions in Table 3.1, but these are
included in the detailed descriptions. In addition, this manual assigns innovations involving
the design of products under product innovation, whereas the third edition included these
under marketing innovation. The change is due to the close relationship between design
activities and the development of product characteristics for both goods and services.
However, changes in the design of packaging remain under marketing.
3.45. There is a good match between the fourth edition and the third edition s definitions
for two types of business process innovations, namely the production of goods and services
and for distribution and logistics. The third edition s s bcategor of ancillary services is
divided in this edition between information and communication systems on the one hand
and administration and management on the other, with the latter including activities that
are listed in the third edition under organisational innovation.
Table 3.2. Comparing types of innovation in the current and previous Oslo Manual editions
3.46. Empirical research has shown that business managers can find it difficult to
differentiate between organisational and process innovations. Organisational innovations
in this manual are therefore subsumed under one type of business process (administration
and management) that includes activities that can involve what previously was described
as organisational innovation, such as strategic management (business practices and external
relations in the third edition) and human resource management (workplace organisation in
the third edition).
3.47. The third edition of the manual supported the construction of a category of product
or process innovators only that excluded firms that were only organisational or marketing
innovators. This category can be approximated using this man al s categor of prod ct
innovation plus three business process categories: (i) production of goods or services;
(ii) distribution and logistics; and (iii) information and communication systems. The
approximation is not perfect because of differences between the third and current edition in
the classification of different types of product design, purchasing and accounting services.
3.48. Previous innovation surveys that followed the third edition of this manual collected
data on multiple types of innovation. For example, the European Community Innovation
Survey (CIS) collected data on two types of product innovations, three types of process
innovations, four types of organisational innovations and four types of marketing
innovations. This data can be reanalysed to approximate the innovation categories in
Table 3.1, thus minimising the impact of a break in series. However, there are several
exceptions where surveys based on the third edition cannot replicate the categories of this
manual, due to a lack of coverage of several administrative and management functions
(e.g. corporate governance), financing, after-sales services, and the business function of
product and business process development.
and business functions. In many cases it is difficult to distinguish partial business model
innovations from product and business process innovations.
3.53. Comprehensive business model innovations are of greater interest because they can
have substantial effects on supply chains and economic production, transforming markets
and potentially creating new ones. They can influence how a firm creates utility for users
(product innovation) and how products are produced, brought to market, or priced (business
process innovations).
3.54. There are three types of comprehensive business model innovations in existing
firms: (i) a firm extends its business to include completely new types of products and
markets that require new business processes to deliver; (ii) a firm ceases its previous
activities and enters into new types of products and markets that require new business
processes; and (iii) a firm changes the business model for its existing products, for example
it switches to a digital model with new business processes for production and delivery and
the product changes from a tangible good to a knowledge-capturing service.
3.55. It is not recommended to directly collect data on business model innovation as a
distinct, stand-alone category through innovation surveys because of the difficulty in
differentiating partial business model innovations from other types. However, the occurrence
of comprehensive business model innovations could be estimated through analysis (see
Chapter 11) that combines information on the types of innovations introduced by a firm with
other questions on innovation objectives, including a question on the objective of establishing
a new business model (see Chapter 8). Identifying the third type of comprehensive business
model innovation could require dedicated questions on changes to existing products.
3.58. It is recommended to ask respondents if their firm has one or more product
innovations or business process innovations that are a market novelty (i.e. a first to their
market innovation). The interpretation of market novelty must be combined with information
on the geographical area served by the firm. A local or regional market novelty could be
based on imitating what is already available in other geographical markets, whereas a
world-first innovation will be a market leader.
3.59. Respondents can find it difficult to estimate if they have a world-first product
innovation, unless the innovation is based on one or more patented inventions that
underwent rigorous screening to establish global novelty. A world-first product innovation
implies a qualitatively greater degree of novelty than a new-to-market innovation.
3.60. Firms that first develop innovations are often drivers of follow-on innovation
within an industry. New ideas and knowledge often originate from these firms, but the
economic impact of their innovations will usually depend on the adoption (or imitation) of
their innovations by other firms. Information on the degree of novelty can be used to
identify the developers, adopters and imitators of innovations, to examine patterns of
diffusion, and to identify market leaders and followers.
3.61. The novelty of business process innovations in comparison to what is already in
use by other firms can be difficult for respondents to determine due to the importance of
secrecy and confidentiality for protecting business processes. However, evidence from
cognitive testing suggests that many managers are able to assess the novelty of process
innovations in their market, particularly for their most important business process innovations.
F rthermore, a don t kno response can pro ide al able information on the extent to
which secrecy is used in specific industries or types of firms.
3.62. The second option on the potential for an innovation to transform (or create) a
market can provide a possible indicator for the incidence of a radical or a disruptive
innovation. Radical innovations are considered to transform the status quo, while a disruptive
innovation takes root in simple applications in a niche market and then diffuses throughout
the market, eventually displacing established competitors (Christensen, 1997). Although
managers may be able to estimate the potential of an innovation to transform a market,
radical and disruptive innovations are likely to be very rare and therefore innovation
surveys may be a poor instrument for their detection. Relevant questions should be limited
to a single, most important innovation (see Chapter 10).
3.63. The third option on the effect of inno ations on the firm s competiti eness can be
assessed for product innovations through the observed change in sales over the observation
period (see Chapter 4) or by asking directly about future expectations of the effect of
innovations on competitiveness (see Chapter 7).
3.64. This section discusses changes that are either not an innovation or which can only
be considered an innovation if specific conditions are met. The basic principles are those
introduced earlier in section 3.2, namely that an innovation must have been implemented
and m st be significantl different from the firm s pre io s prod cts or b siness processes.
3.65. Routine changes or updates do not by themselves represent product innovations.
This includes software updates that only identify and remove coding errors and seasonal
changes in clothing fashions.
3.66. Simple capital replacement or extension is not an innovation. This includes the
purchase of identical models of installed equipment or minor extensions and updates to
existing equipment or software. New equipment or extensions must be new to the firm and
involve a significant improvement in specifications.
3.67. Product introductions that only involve minor aesthetic changes, such as a change
in colour or a minor change in shape, do not meet the requirement for a significant
difference and are therefore not product innovations.
3.68. Firms engaged in custom production make single and often complex goods or
services for sale on the market (e.g. computer games, films) or according to customer
orders (e.g. buildings, production plants, logistic systems, machinery, consulting reports).
Unless the one-off item displays significantly different attributes from products that the
firm has previously made, it is not a product innovation. It is not a business process
innovation unless developing the one-off item required the firm to develop and use
significantly different or enhanced capabilities. However, the first use of customised
production can be a business process innovation.
3.69. An advertised concept, prototype or model of a product that does not yet exist
is in general not a product innovation because it does not meet the implementation
requirement, even if customers can pre-order or make advance payments for the concept,
such as a product concept funded by crowdsourcing. The concept can fail or take
considerably longer than expected before it is available for use.
3.70. It may be more difficult to decide whether implementation has taken place in the
case of new knowledge products that have been sold to other parties. While the seller has
brought a new product to the market, the buyer may hold on from using it in their business
processes or taking it to their own markets. Such information may not be known to the
knowledge provider that is the subject of measurement and has to decide on whether to
report an innovation. If the knowledge product meets the novelty and significance requirements
to be considered a product innovation, a knowledge product can be considered to pass the
implementation test if it has been sold in the market by a firm to another party or parties.
3.71. The outputs of creative and professional service firms, such as reports for clients,
books, or films are not by default an innovation for the firms that develop them. For
example, a report by a consulting firm that summarises the results of a design project
without major novelty elements conducted under contract for a client is not a product
inno ation for the cons lting firm. The report s role in inno ation for the buying firm
depends on hether or not its res lts are sed in the client firm s inno ation acti ities.
However, the consulting firm could be credited with an innovation if it implemented new
business processes as part of conducting the project for its client, or if the blueprints or
designs that are sold on the market meet the innovation requirements of novelty and
significance. These phenomena are considered in more detail in Chapters 4 and 6.
3.72. Actions by retail, wholesale, transport and storage, and personal service firms to
extend the range of products handled or offered to customers are only an innovation if
the extension requires significant changes by the firm to its business processes. A fruit
importer or wholesaler who adds a new variety of fruit for sale to retailers is not engaged
in innovation unless the extension requires a major change to business processes such as
developing a new supply chain or the purchase of novel refrigerating equipment (e.g. to
permit the delivery of fresh produce that was not previously possible).
3.73. The activities of newly created firms (most of which are service firms) present a
potential source of confusion with respect to the basic definition of an innovation because
for a period of time a new firm will have no previous products or business processes for
comparison. In this case, the comparison group is what is available in the relevant market.
A product of a new firm is an innovation if it differs significantly from products available
in its markets. Likewise, a business process of a new firm is a process innovation if it differs
significantly from the business processes used by its competitors. However, respondents
from new firms may view all of their products or business processes as innovations.
Consequently it may be necessary to provide separate results for newly created firms such
as start-ups. In addition, it would be worthwhile for specialised surveys of start-up firms to
experiment with measuring product and business process novelty.
3.74. In the absence of further qualification, mergers or the acquisition of other firms
are not business process innovations in their own right. Mergers and acquisitions can drive
business process innovations, however, if the firm develops or adopts a new business
process as a result of the merger or for the purpose of improving the success of the merger
or acquisition.
3.75. Ceasing to use a business process, ceasing to outsource a business process, or
withdrawing a product from the market are not innovations. However, the first
implementation of business processes to determine when an activity should cease could
meet the requirements for an innovation.
3.76. A change due to externally determined factor prices is unlikely to represent an
innovation. For example, an innovation does not occur when the same model of a mobile phone
is constructed and sold at a lower price simply because the price of a video processor chip falls.
3.77. The formulation of a new corporate or managerial strategy is not an innovation
if it is not implemented. Furthermore, a change in a business process is not an innovation
if it is already in use in an identical form in other divisions of the firm.
3.81. The combinations in Table 3.3 result in three core definitions that apply to firms:
An innovative firm reports one or more innovations within the observation period.
This applies equally to a firm that is individually or jointly responsible for an innovation.
A non-innovative firm reports no innovations within the observation period.
An innovation-active firm is engaged at some time during the observation period
in one or more activities to develop or implement new or improved products or
business processes for an intended use. Both innovative and non-innovative firms
can be innovation-active during an observation period.
3.82. The fourth category of an innovative firm with no innovation activities during the
observation period is very rare. It would for example occur if a firm undertook all innovation
activities except implementation before the observation period and the implementation
required no additional resources. It may also occur if an innovation results from generic
business activities that were not explicitly aimed at introducing an innovation.
3.83. It is important for measurement practices to account for the dynamic relationship
between innovation viewed as a process (innovation activities) and as an outcome. The
length of the observation period will also directly influence the distribution of firms across
the four categories in Table 3.3. In industries with short development times and long
product life cycles, a short observation period could result in a low percentage of innovative
and innovation-active firms. In industries with long development times, a short observation
period could result in a high share of innovation-active firms combined with a low share of
innovative firms that report at least one innovation. Chapter 9 provides further discussion
of the effect of the observation period length on innovation status.
3.84. Innovation is a subjective construct with the potential for measurement to give
di erging res lts, depending on the respondent s perspecti e, beliefs and conte t (Galindo-
Rueda and Van Cruysen, 2016). To ensure statistical quality and comparability, the definitions
used in surveys and other data collection methods must therefore capture the intended
meaning of the definitions in this manual, while taking into account differences in language
and the vocabulary used and understood by potential respondents.
own understanding. This could result in more objective responses and reduce issues of
comparability across industries or countries. An example is the Australian Business
Characteristics Survey, which replaces the term innovation with a description of all types
of innovations. For instance, the 2013 survey (based on the third edition of the Oslo
Manual) asks respondents here did this b siness so rce ideas and information for the
development or introduction of new goods, services, processes or methods? . This also
illustrates an important disadvantage of avoiding the use of innovation : it can require
listing all types of innovations in multiple questions. However, the adoption in this manual
of only two major categories of innovations, products and business processes, will improve
the ability of data collection exercises to avoid the term innovation while ensuring some
economy of language.
Chapter 2
43
I-2. CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS FOR IDENTIFYING R&D
2.1. Introduction
2.1 The Frascati Manual has provided the definition of research and
experimental development (R&D) and of its components, basic research, applied
research and experimental development, for more than half a century, and the
definitions have stood the test of time. The definitions in this chapter do not
differ in substance from those in previous editions. However, there is recognition
of cultural change in the definition of R&D and of the use of language in the
definition of experimental development.
2.2 Since the previous edition of this manual, the System of National
Accounts (SNA) has changed the treatment of expenditure on R&D from an
expense to a capital investment leading to a capital stock of knowledge created
as a result of R&D. The SNA 2008 (EC et al., 2009) draws on this manual for the
definition of R&D. A consequence of becoming a more integral part of the SNA is
the use of its language in this manual. Such usage will be noted when it occurs.
2.3 R&D is found in the social sciences, humanities and the arts as well as in
the natural sciences and engineering. This manual gives greater emphasis than
past editions to the social sciences, humanities and the arts. This requires no
changes in the definitions and conventions, but it does require greater attention
to the boundaries that define what is and what is not R&D. Also, countries using
this manual are at different stages of economic development, and this chapter
tries to accommodate the differing needs.
2.4 The chapter provides definitions of R&D and its components, together
with a set of criteria for identifying R&D. Examples of R&D, boundaries and
exclusions are provided to illustrate how the definitions are applied. This is a
statistical manual, and its fundamental purpose is to provide guidance for
the measurement of R&D activities using various means of data-gathering
from surveys, interviews and administrative sources. The manual is also used
for interpreting R&D data as part of the development, implementation and
evaluation of policy. However, users should note that the focus of this chapter is
on definitions for measurement purposes.
2.6 A set of common features identifies R&D activities, even if these are
carried out by different performers. R&D activities may be aimed at achieving
either specific or general objectives. R&D is always aimed at new findings,
based on original concepts (and their interpretation) or hypotheses. It is largely
uncertain about its final outcome (or at least about the quantity of time and
resources needed to achieve it), it is planned for and budgeted (even when
carried out by individuals), and it is aimed at producing results that could be
either freely transferred or traded in a marketplace. For an activity to be an R&D
activity, it must satisfy five core criteria.
2.7 The activity must be:
● novel
● creative
● uncertain
● systematic
2.8 All five criteria are to be met, at least in principle, every time an
R&D activity is undertaken whether on a continuous or occasional basis. The
definition of R&D just given is consistent with the definition of R&D used in
the previous editions of the Frascati Manual and covers the same range of
activities.
2.9 The term R&D covers three types of activity: basic research, applied
research and experimental development. Basic research is experimental
or theoretical work undertaken primarily to acquire new knowledge of the
underlying foundations of phenomena and observable facts, without any
particular application or use in view. Applied research is original investigation
undertaken in order to acquire new knowledge. It is, however, directed primarily
towards a specific, practical aim or objective. Experimental development is
systematic work, drawing on knowledge gained from research and practical
experience and producing additional knowledge, which is directed to producing
new products or processes or to improving existing products or processes. These
three types of R&D are discussed further in Section 2.5.
2.10 This manual follows the System of National Accounts convention
in which “product” refers to a good or a service (EC et al., 2009: para. 2.36).
Throughout this manual, “process” refers to the transformation of inputs to
outputs and their delivery or to organisational structures or practices.
2.11 The order in which the three types of R&D activity appear is not
meant to suggest that basic research leads to applied research and then to
experimental development. There are many flows of information and knowledge
in the R&D system. Experimental development can inform basic research, and
there is no reason why basic research cannot lead directly to new products or
processes.
Examples
2.21 To understand the aim of a project, it is essential to identify its R&D
content and the institutional context in which R&D is performed. Some examples
follow.
● In the field of medicine, a routine autopsy to determine the causes of death
is the practice of medical care and is not R&D; a special investigation of a
particular mortality to establish the side effects of certain cancer treatments
is R&D (in fact, novelty and uncertainty about the final results of the study, as
well as the transferability of the results for broader use, apply here).
● Similarly, routine tests such as blood and bacteriological tests carried out for
medical checks are not R&D, whereas a special programme of blood tests for
patients taking a new drug is R&D.
● Keeping daily records of temperatures or of atmospheric pressure is not R&D,
but a standard procedure. The investigation of new methods of measuring
temperature is R&D, as is the study and development of new models for
weather prediction.
● R&D activities in the mechanical engineering industry often have a close
connection with design. In small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in this
industry, there is usually no special R&D department, and R&D performance
is often included under the general heading “design and drawing”. If
calculations, designs, working drawings and operating instructions are
needed for setting up and operating pilot plants or prototypes, they should
be included in R&D. If they are carried out for the preparation, execution
and maintenance of production standardisation (e.g. jigs, machine tools)
a. What are the objectives The pursuit of original and challenging objectives through the creation of
of the project? “new knowledge” (such as seeking previously undiscovered phenomena,
structures or relationships) is a key criterion for R&D. Any use of already
available knowledge (adaptation, customisation, etc.) which does not entail an
attempt to expand the state of the art should be excluded (Novelty).
b. What is new about this In addition to the development of “new knowledge”, an R&D project should
project? have a creative approach, such as devising new applications of existing
scientific knowledge or new uses of available techniques or technologies
(Creativity).
c. What methods are being Methods used in scientific and technological research, as well as in
used to carry out the research in the social sciences, humanities and the arts, are accepted
project? provided that they address uncertainty about the project’s final outcome.
The uncertainty could be about how much time and resources will be
needed to achieve the planned goal. The choice of method could be part of
the project’s creativity and a means of dealing with uncertainty (Creativity
and uncertainty).
d. How generally applicable To be generally applicable, the findings of an R&D project have to meet
are the findings or results the criterion of being transferable/reproducible, in addition to the other
of the project? four criteria. Transferring the results may for example be demonstrated by
publication in the scientific literature and the use of instruments of intellectual
property protection.
e. What types of staff are A range of skills is assumed to be required to undertake an R&D project
working on the project? (the R&D personnel issue is discussed in Chapter 5 of this manual).
Research personnel in projects are classified as researchers, technicians
and other supporting staff, but only researchers, working as researchers,
are needed to identify an R&D activity which, implicitly, satisfies all five
core criteria.
f. How should the research In selected cases, an “institutional approach” can be used to distinguish
projects of research between R&D and non-R&D projects. For instance, most projects carried
institutions be classified? out in research institutes or research universities can be qualified as R&D
projects. Projects launched in other domains – like business enterprises or
institutions not totally devoted to R&D – should be checked against the five
R&D criteria (see institutions in Chapter 3).
● applied research
● experimental development.
Basic research
2.25 Basic research is experimental or theoretical work undertaken
primarily to acquire new knowledge of the underlying foundations of
phenomena and observable facts, without any particular application or use
in view.
2.26 Basic research analyses properties, structures and relationships with
a view to formulating and testing hypotheses, theories or laws. The reference to
no “particular application in view” in the definition of basic research is crucial,
as the performer may not know about potential applications when doing the
research or responding to survey questionnaires. The results of basic research
are not generally sold but are usually published in scientific journals or circulated
to interested colleagues. Occasionally, the publication of basic research may be
restricted for reasons of national security.
2.27 In basic research, the researcher is expected to have some freedom
to set goals. Such research is usually performed in the Higher education sector
but also to some extent in the Government sector. Basic research can be oriented
or directed towards some broad fields of general interest, with the explicit goal
of a range of future applications. Business enterprises in the private sector may
also undertake basic research even though there may be no specific commercial
applications anticipated in the short term. Research on some kinds of energy-
saving technologies may be described as basic according to the above definition
if it does not have a specific use in view. However, it does have a specific direction:
improved energy savings. Such research in this manual is referred to as “oriented
basic research”.
2.28 Oriented basic research may be distinguished from “pure basic
research” as follows:
● Pure basic research is carried out for the advancement of knowledge, without
seeking economic or social benefits or making an active effort to apply the
results to practical problems or to transfer the results to sectors responsible
for their application.
● Oriented basic research is carried out with the expectation that it will produce
a broad base of knowledge likely to form the basis of the solution to recognised
or expected current or future problems or possibilities.
Applied research
2.29 Applied research is original investigation undertaken in order to
acquire new knowledge. It is, however, directed primarily towards a specific,
practical aim or objective.
2.30 Applied research is undertaken either to determine possible uses
for the findings of basic research or to determine new methods or ways of
achieving specific and predetermined objectives. It involves considering the
available knowledge and its extension in order to solve actual problems. In the
Business enterprise sector, the distinction between basic and applied research
is often marked by the creation of a new project to explore promising results of
a basic research programme (moving from a long-term to a medium-short term
perspective in the exploitation of the results of intramural [see Glossary] R&D).
2.31 The results of applied research are intended primarily to be valid
for possible applications to products, operations, methods or systems. Applied
research gives operational form to ideas. The applications of the knowledge
derived can be protected by intellectual property instruments, including
secrecy.
Experimental development
2.32 Experimental development is systematic work, drawing on
knowledge gained from research and practical experience and producing
additional knowledge, which is directed to producing new products or
processes or to improving existing products or processes.
2.33 The development of new products or processes qualifies as
experimental development if it meets the criteria for identifying R&D activity.
An example is uncertainty about the resources needed to achieve the goal of the
R&D project in which the development activity is taking place. In this manual the
“D” in R&D refers to experimental development.
● how broad is the range of potential fields of application for the results of the
R&D project (the more fundamental the research, the broader the potential
field of application).
2.38 The relationship between basic research, applied research and
experimental development has to be seen within a dynamic perspective. It is
possible that applied research and experimental development could adapt
fundamental knowledge arising from basic research directly for general
application. However, the linearity of such a process is affected by the feedback
that takes place when knowledge is used to solve a problem. This dynamic
interaction between knowledge generation and the solution of problems links
basic and applied research and experimental development.
2.39 With reference to the organisations where R&D is performed, a
clear-cut separation of the three types of R&D rarely exists. All three types may
sometimes be carried out in the same unit by essentially the same staff, but some
research projects may genuinely straddle categories. For instance, the search for
a new medical treatment for people affected by an epidemic disease may involve
both basic and applied research. It is recommended to undertake an evaluation of
the type of R&D at the project level, by classifying the project’s expected results
according to the two “indicators” described above. Some examples are provided in
the next paragraphs.
engineering. It should be noted that these examples must also meet the basic
criteria identified in this chapter to be considered as R&D.
● In economics and business:
● In history:
❖ Basic research: Historians study the history and human impact of glacial
outburst floods in a country.
❖ Applied research: Historians examine past societies’ responses to
catastrophic natural events (e.g. floods, droughts, epidemics) in order to
understand how contemporary society might better respond to global
climate change.
❖ Experimental development: Using previous research findings, historians
design a new museum exhibit on the adaptations of past human societies
to environmental changes; this serves as a prototype for other museums
and educational installations.
● In language/linguistics:
Pilot plants
2.51 The construction and operation of a pilot plant is a part of R&D as long
as the principal purposes are to obtain experience and to compile engineering
and other data to be used in:
● evaluating hypotheses
2.52 If, as soon as this experimental phase is over, a pilot plant switches to
operating as a normal commercial production unit, the activity can no longer be
considered R&D even though it may still be described as a pilot plant. As long as
the primary purpose in operating a pilot plant is non-commercial, it makes no
difference in principle if part or all of the output is sold. Such receipts should not
be deducted from the cost of R&D activity (Chapter 4).
Large-scale projects
2.53 Large-scale projects (in areas like defence, aerospace or big science)
usually cover a spectrum of activity from experimental to pre-production
development. Under these circumstances, the funding and/or performing
organisation often cannot distinguish between R&D and other elements
of expenditure. The distinction between R&D and non-R&D expenditure is
particularly important in countries where a large proportion of government R&D
expenditure is directed to defence.
2.54 It is important to look closely at the nature of costly pilot plants
or prototypes, such as the first of a new line of nuclear power stations or of
icebreakers. They may be constructed almost entirely from existing materials
and use existing technology, and they are often built for simultaneous use for
R&D and for providing the primary service concerned (power generation, ice
breaking). The construction of such plants and prototypes should not be wholly
credited to R&D. Only the additional costs due to the experimental nature of
these products should be attributed to R&D.
Trial production
2.55 After a prototype has been satisfactorily tested and any necessary
modifications made, the manufacturing start-up phase may begin. This
is related to full-scale production; it may consist of product or process
modification or retraining personnel in the new techniques or in the use of new
machinery. Unless the manufacturing start-up phase implies further design
and engineering R&D, it should not be counted as R&D, since the primary
objective is no longer to make further improvements to the products but to
start the production process. The first units of a trial production run for a mass
production series should not be considered as R&D prototypes even if they are
loosely described as such.
2.56 For example, if a new product is to be assembled by automatic
welding, the process of optimising the settings on the welding equipment in
order to achieve maximum production speed and efficiency would not count
as R&D.
Trouble-shooting
2.57 Trouble-shooting occasionally shows the need for further R&D, but
more frequently it involves the detection of faults in equipment or processes and
results in minor modifications of standard equipment and processes. It should
not, therefore, be included in R&D.
“Feedback” R&D
2.58 After a new product or process has been turned over to production
units, there will still be technical problems to be solved, some of which may
demand further R&D. Such “feedback” R&D should be included.
Tooling up and industrial engineering
2.59 In most cases, the tooling up and industrial engineering phases of
any project are considered to be part of the production process, and not of R&D.
Three phases of tooling up can be identified:
● the first-time use of components (including the use of components resulting
from R&D efforts)
● the initial tooling of equipment for mass production
new products and processes. Among these activities are initial preparations
for the planning of new products or processes, and work on their design and
implementation, including adjustments and further changes. This description
emphasises the creative role of design within an innovation process, a feature
potentially shared with the R&D performed in the same context. Some design-
related activities may be considered R&D to the extent that they play a role
in a product development process, which is aiming at something “new” (but
not necessarily at new knowledge), is creative and original, can be formalised
(performed by a dedicated team), and leads to a codified output to be passed on
to the development team. The main difference with R&D is that no uncertainty
is likely to be found when skilled designers are asked to contribute to an
innovation project. This leads to a view that design is not R&D and that it has to
be kept distinct from R&D for any statistical purpose.
2.63 While an R&D project involves uncertainty about whether an
expected outcome will be delivered within an agreed time schedule, a design
project’s uncertainty will be directly influenced by the clarity and the feasibility
of its original goals. As an example, designing a standard building does not
involve major uncertainty about the final outcome; yet the more challenging
the concept of the building, the adding of new features, for example, the higher
the uncertainty about the time and costs needed to complete the project. R&D
activity, complementing the use of existing design tools, may be required to
address the uncertainty.
2.74 Starting in the 1993 SNA (EC et al., 1994), total expenditure on software
(including R&D for software development) was regarded as capital investment.
In the 2008 SNA (EC et al., 2009), total expenditure on R&D is regarded as capital
investment. According to the Handbook on deriving capital measures of intellectual
property products (OECD, 2009), which further developed the 2008 SNA guidance
on intangibles, capitalised software R&D remained in software investment. It is
important to be able to identify explicitly R&D expenditure devoted to software to
better inform both R&D and SNA statisticians and users of the overlap between
software and R&D. This is discussed further in Chapter 4.
interest or that only the government has the resources to record. Examples are
routine topographical mapping; routine geological, hydrological, oceanographic
and meteorological surveying; and astronomical observations. Data collected
solely or primarily as part of the R&D process are included in R&D (e.g. data
collected by a detector that is part of an elementary particle scattering experiment
at CERN). The same reasoning applies to the processing and interpretation of the
data. The social sciences, in particular, are very dependent on an accurate record of
facts relating to society in the form of censuses, sample surveys, etc. When these
are specially collected or processed for the purpose of scientific research, the cost
should be attributed to research and should cover the planning and systematising
of the data. R&D can also be identified when a specific project is aimed at
developing totally new statistical methods (e.g. conceptual and methodological
work in relation to the development of completely new or substantially modified
surveys and statistical systems, work on sampling methodologies, small area
statistical estimates and advanced data-capturing techniques) or data collection
methodologies and techniques. However, data collected for other or general
purposes, such as quarterly sampling of unemployment, should be excluded from
R&D even if exploited for research (unless the researcher had to pay for the right
to use such data in the research). Market surveys should also be excluded.
2.91 The activities of a scientific and technical information service or of a
research laboratory library that is maintained predominantly for the benefit of
the research workers in the laboratory should be included in R&D. The activities
of a firm’s documentation centre open to all the firm’s staff should be excluded
from R&D even if it shares the same premises as the business research unit
(the need to avoid an over-evaluation of R&D-related activities applies here).
Similarly, the activities of central university libraries should be excluded from
R&D. These criteria, which will have to be applied also to electronic libraries and
data repositories, apply only when it is necessary to deal with the activities of
an institution or a department in their entirety. Where more detailed accounting
methods are used, it may be possible to impute part of the costs of the excluded
activities to R&D overheads. Whereas the preparation of scientific and technical
publications is, generally speaking, excluded, the preparation of the original
report of research findings should be included in R&D.
and data-driven innovation. These activities are R&D if and only if they meet
the five core criteria, in particular the general requirement that the activity or
project should be undertaken in a systematic way – i.e. by clearly identifying
the original knowledge gap and focusing specific resources on addressing it.
An example is the “Human Genome Project”, which attracted researchers and
institutions from 18 countries to co-operate in a 13-year-long research effort
to sequence and map out the human DNA code. Through digitisation, the R&D
codification criterion plays a major part in big data projects, as the usability of
the data arising from “big data” science projects depends on its ability to convey
knowledge about specific phenomena for which the data have been gathered.
These data may or may not be made widely accessible or usable for research
purposes. The concept of open science commonly refers to efforts to make the
output of publicly funded research more widely accessible in digital format to
the scientific community, the business sector or society more generally (OECD,
2015). In some cases, efforts to make research data openly accessible to the
broad scientific community, including developing specific tools that facilitate
the reproducibility of the research, will be an integral part of an R&D project,
provided that they are explicitly formulated as such within the R&D project’s
objectives and are budgeted. In other cases, these should be treated as separate
dissemination efforts and not counted as R&D.
Space exploration
2.94 A difficulty with space exploration is that, in some respects, much
space activity may now be considered routine; certainly, most costs are incurred
for the purchase of goods and services that are not R&D. It may be necessary
to separate the activities associated with space exploration, including the
development of vehicles, equipment, software and techniques, from those
involved in the routine placing of orbiting satellites or the establishment of
tracking and communication stations.
develop new test and drilling techniques that the mining industry can draw on
for its exploration and routine activities. Mining and prospecting sometimes
cause problems owing to a linguistic confusion between research for new or
substantially improved resources (food, energy, etc.) and the search for existing
reserves of natural resources, a confusion that blurs the distinction between
R&D and surveying and prospecting. In theory, in order to establish accurate R&D
data, the following activities should be identified, measured and summed:
● the development of new surveying methods and techniques
Demonstration projects
2.100 Two concepts of demonstration have already been adopted in R&D
statistics: “user demonstration”, which takes place when a prototype is operated
at or near full scale in a realistic environment to aid the formulation of policy
or the promotion of its use, which is not R&D; and “technical demonstration”
● coding
● recording
● classifying
● disseminating
● translating
● analysing
● evaluating
by:
● scientific and technical personnel
● bibliographic services
● patent services
● scientific conferences
Feasibility studies
2.114 The investigation of proposed engineering projects, using existing
techniques to provide additional information before deciding on implementation,
is not R&D. In the social sciences, feasibility studies are investigations of the
socio-economic characteristics and implications of specific situations (e.g. a
study of the viability of a petrochemical complex in a certain region). However,
feasibility studies on research projects are part of R&D.
Policy-related studies
2.116 In this context, “policy” refers not only to national policy but also to
policy at regional and local levels, as well as the policy of business enterprises
in the pursuit of their economic activity. Policy-related studies cover a range
of activities, such as the analysis and assessment of the existing programmes,
policies and operations of government departments and other institutions; the
work of units concerned with the continuing analysis and monitoring of external
History of Tesla
In the year 2003, an engineer named Martin Eberhard was looking for his next
big project. A tall, slim man with a mop of gray hair, Eberhard was a serial entre-
preneur who had launched a number of start-ups, including a company called
NuvoMedia, which he sold to Gemstar in a $187 million deal. Eberhard was also
looking for a sports car that would be environmentally friendly—he had concerns
about global warming and U.S. dependence on the Middle East for oil. When he
didn’t find the car of his dreams on the market he began contemplating building
43
44 Part One Industry Dynamics of Technological Innovation
one himself, even though he had zero experience in the auto industry. Eberhard
noticed that many of the driveways that had a Toyota Prius hybrid electric
vehicle (or “dork mobile” as he called it) also had expensive sports cars in them—
making Eberhard speculate that there could be a market for a high-performance
environmentally friendly car. As explained by Eberhard, “It was clear that people
weren’t buying a Prius to save money on gas—gas was selling close to inflation–
adjusted all-time lows. They were buying them to make a statement about the
environment.”a
Eberhard began to consider a range of alternative fuel options for his car:
hydrogen fuel cells, natural gas, and diesel. However, he soon concluded that
the highest efficiency and performance would come from a pure electric vehicle.
Luckily for Eberhard, Al Cocconi (founder of AC Propulsion and one of the original
engineers for GM’s ill-fated EV-1) had concluded the same thing and had pro-
duced a car called the tzero. The tzero could go from zero to 60 miles per hour in
4.1 seconds, but it was powered with extremely heavy lead-acid batteries, limit-
ing its range to about 60 miles between charges. Eberhard approached Cocconi
with the idea of using the lighter lithium ion batteries, which offered six times
more energy per pound. Cocconi was eager to try out the idea (he had, in fact,
been experimenting with lithium ion batteries himself), and the resulting lithium
ion-based tzero accelerated to 60 miles per hour in 3.6 seconds, and could travel
more than 300 miles. Eberhard licensed the electric-drive-train technology from
AC Propulsion, and founded his company, Tesla Motors (named after Nikola Tesla,
a late nineteenth-century and early twentieth-century inventor who developed,
among other things, the AC electrical systems used in the United States today).b
Meanwhile, there was another entrepreneur—one with much deeper pockets—
also interested in developing electric vehicles based on the tzero: Elon Musk. In
2002, Elon Musk was a 31-year-old South African living in California, who had
founded a company that ultimately became PayPal. After selling PayPal to eBay
in 2002 for $1.5 billion, he started a company called SpaceX with the ambitious
goal of developing cheap, consumer space travel. (SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft
ultimately made history in May of 2012 by becoming the first commercial vehicle
to launch and dock at the International Space Station.c) Musk was also the chair-
man of a high profile clean tech venture in Northern California called Solar City.
Musk’s assertive style, and his astonishing record of high-tech entrepreneurship,
made him one of the inspirations for the Tony Stark character in Jon Favreau’s
Iron Man movies.
Like Eberhard, Musk thought electric cars were the key to the United States
achieving energy independence, and he approached Cocconi about buying the
tzero. Tom Gage, who was then AC Propulsion’s CEO, suggested that Musk
collaborate with Eberhard. After a two hour meeting in February of 2004, Musk
agreed to fund Eberhard’s plan with $6.3 million. He would be the company’s
chairman and Eberhard would serve as CEO.
The Roadster
The first Tesla prototype, named the Roadster, was based on the $45,000 Lotus
Elise, a fast and light sports car that seemed perfect for the creation of Eberhard
Chapter 3 Types and Patterns of Innovation 45
and Musk’s grand idea. The car would have 400 volts of electric potential, liquid-
cooled lithium ion batteries, and a series of silicon transistors that would give the
car acceleration so powerful the driver would be pressed back against their seat.d
It would be about as fast as a Porsche 911 Turbo, would not create a single emis-
sion, and would get about 220 miles on a single charge from the kind of outlet
you would use to power a washing machine.e
After a series of clashes between Musk and Eberhard that led to delays in
launching the Roadster, Eberhard was pushed out of the company. The Roadster
missed its deadline for beginning production at the Lotus facility, triggering a
penalty built into the manufacturing contract Eberhard had signed with Lotus: a
$4 million fee. However, when the car finally launched in 2008, the enthusias-
tic response it received was astonishing—it boasted an all-star list of celebrities
with reservations to buy, and everywhere the Roadster drove, people stopped
to stare.f
The Model S
Musk’s ambitions did not stop at a niche high-end car. He wanted to build a major
U.S. auto company—a feat that had not been successfully accomplished since
the 1920s. To do so, he knew he needed to introduce a less-expensive car that
could attract a higher volume of sales, if not quite the mass market. In June of
2008, Tesla announced the Model S—a high-performance all-electric sedan that
would sell for a price ranging from $57,400 to $77,400 and compete against
cars like the BMW 5-series. The car would have an all-aluminum body, and a
range of up to 300 miles per charge.g The Model S cost $500 million to develop,h
however offsetting that cost was a $465 million loan Tesla received from the
U.S. government to build the car, as part of the U.S. government’s initiative to
promote the development of technologies that would help the United States to
achieve energy independence.
By May of 2012, Tesla reported that it already had 10,000 reservations for
customers hoping to buy the Model S, and Musk confidently claimed that the
company would soon be producing—and selling—20,000 Model S cars a year.
Musk also noted that after ramping up production, he expected to see “at least
10,000 units a year from demand in Europe and at least 5,000 in Asia.”i The
production of the Model S went more smoothly than that of the Roadster, and
by June of 2012, the first Model S cars were rolling off the factory floor. The very
first went to Jeff Skoll, eBay’s first president, and a major investor in Tesla. On the
day of the launch, Skoll talked with Musk about whether it was harder to build a
rocket or a car (referring to Musk’s SpaceXcompany): “We decided it was a car.
There isn’t a lot of competition in space.”j
To build the car, Tesla bought a recently closed automobile factory in Fremont,
California, that had been used for the New United Motor Manufacturing Inc.
(NUMMI) venture between Toyota and General Motors. The factory, which was
capable of producing 1,000 cars a week, was far bigger than Tesla’s immedi-
ate needs and would give the company room to grow. Furthermore, though
the plant and the land it was on had been appraised at around $1 billion
before NUMMI was shut down, Tesla was able to snap up the idled factory for
46 Part One Industry Dynamics of Technological Innovation
$42 million.k Tesla also used the factory to produce battery packs for Toyota’s
RAV4, and a charger for a subcompact Daimler AG electric vehicle. These proj-
ects would supplement Tesla’s income while also helping it to build scale and
learning curve efficiencies in its technologies.
In the first quarter of 2013, Tesla announced its first quarterly profit. The
company had taken in $562 million in revenues and reported an $11.2 million
profit. Then more good news came: The Model S had earned Consumer Reports’
highest rating and had outsold similarly priced BMW and Mercedes models in
the first quarter.l In May of 2013, the company raised $1 billion by issuing new
shares and then surprised investors by announcing that it had paid back its gov-
ernment loan. After repaying the loan, Tesla had about $679 million in cash.
Musk had announced confidently that he felt it was his obligation to pay back
taxpayer money as soon as possible and that the company had sufficient funds
now to develop its next generation of automobiles without the loan and without
issuing further shares.m
Discussion Questions
1. Is the Tesla Model S a radical innovation or an incremental innovation?
Competence enhancing or destroying, and from whose perspective? Is it a
component or an architectural innovation?
2. What factors do you think influence the rate at which consumers have
adopted (or will adopt) the Tesla Model S?
3. Where do you think electric vehicle battery technology is on the technology
s curve?
4. Do you think Tesla Motors will be profitable? Why or why not?
Chapter 3 Types and Patterns of Innovation 47
a
Copeland, M.V. 2008. Tesla’s wild ride. Fortune, Vol. 158, issue 2, pg. 82–94.
b
Copeland, M.V. 2008. Tesla’s wild ride. Fortune, Vol. 158, issue 2, pg. 82–94.
c
Boudreau. J. 2012. In a Silicon Valley milestone, Tesla Motors begins delivering Model S electric cars.
June 24: Breaking News Section.
d
Copeland, M.V. 2008. Tesla’s wild ride. Fortune, Vol. 158, issue 2, pg. 82–94.
e
Williams, A. 2009. Taking a Tesla for a status check in New York. New York Times, July 19th, ST.7.
f
Williams, A. 2009. Taking a Tesla for a status check in New York. New York Times, July 19th, ST.7.
g
Ramsey, M. 2011. Tesla sets 300-mile range for second electric car. Wall Street Journal (Online),
March 7th: n/a
h
Vance, A. 2015. Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future. New York:
Harper Collins
i
Sweet, C. 2013. Tesla posts its first quarterly profit. Wall Street Journal (Online), May 9th: n/a.
j
Boudreau. J. 2012. In a Silicon Valley milestone, Tesla Motors begins delivering Model S electric cars.
Oakland Tribune, June 24: Breaking News Section.
k
Anonymous. 2010. Idle Fremont plant gears up for Tesla. Wall Street Journal (Online),
October 20th: n/a
l
Levi, M. 2013. How Tesla pulled ahead of the electric-car pack. Wall Street Journal, June 21:A.11.
m
White, J.B. 2013. Corporate News: Electric car startup Tesla repays U.S. loan. Wall Street Journal, May
23rd:B.3.
n
Caranddriver.com, accessed May 11, 2015.
o
Boudreau. J. 2012. In a Silicon Valley milestone, Tesla Motors begins delivering Model S electric cars.
Oakland Tribune, June 24: Breaking News Section.
OVERVIEW
The previous chapters pointed out that technological innovation can come from many
sources and take many forms. Different types of technological innovations offer dif-
ferent opportunities for organizations and society, and they pose different demands
upon producers, users, and regulators. While there is no single agreed-upon taxonomy
to describe different kinds of technological innovations, in this chapter we will review
several dimensions that are often used to categorize technologies. These dimensions are
useful for understanding some key ways that one innovation may differ from another.
technology The path a technology follows through time is termed its technology trajectory.
trajectory Technology trajectories are most often used to represent the technology’s rate of per-
The path a tech- formance improvement or its rate of adoption in the marketplace. Though many fac-
nology takes
through its life-
tors can influence these technology trajectories (as discussed in both this chapter and
time. This path the following chapters), some patterns have been consistently identified in technology
may refer to its trajectories across many industry contexts and over many periods. Understanding
rate of perfor- these patterns of technological innovation provides a useful foundation that we will
mance improve- build upon in the later chapters on formulating technology strategy.
ment, its rate
of diffusion, or
The chapter begins by reviewing the dimensions used to distinguish types of
other change of innovations. It then describes the s-curve patterns so often observed in both the rate
interest. of technology improvement and the rate of technology diffusion to the market. In the
last section, the chapter describes research suggesting that technological innovation
follows a cyclical pattern composed of distinct and reliably occurring phases.
48 Part One Industry Dynamics of Technological Innovation
TYPES OF INNOVATION
Technological innovations are often described using dimensions such as “radical” ver-
sus “incremental.” Different types of innovation require different kinds of underlying
knowledge and have different impacts on the industry’s competitors and customers.
Four of the dimensions most commonly used to categorize innovations are described
here: product versus process innovation, radical versus incremental, competence enhanc-
ing versus competence destroying, and architectural versus component.
generation. Thus, while each generation embodies innovation, these innovations lever-
age Intel’s existing competencies, making them more valuable.
An innovation is considered to be competence destroying from the perspective of a
particular firm if the technology does not build on the firm’s existing competencies or
renders them obsolete. For example, from the 1600s to the early 1970s, no self-respecting
mathematician or engineer would have been caught without a slide rule. Slide rules are
lightweight devices, often constructed of wood, that use logarithm scales to solve com-
plex mathematical functions. They were used to calculate everything from the structural
properties of a bridge to the range and fuel use of an aircraft. Specially designed slide
rules for businesses had, for example, scales for doing loan calculations or determin-
ing optimal purchase quantities. During the 1950s and 1960s, Keuffel & Esser was the
preeminent slide-rule maker in the United States, producing 5,000 slide rules a month.
However, in the early 1970s, a new innovation relegated the slide rule to collectors and
museum displays within just a few years: the inexpensive handheld calculator. Keuffel
& Esser had no background in the electronic components that made electronic calcula-
tors possible and was unable to transition to the new technology. By 1976, Keuffel &
Esser withdrew from the market.3 Whereas the inexpensive handheld calculator built on
the existing competencies of companies such as Hewlett-Packard and Texas Instruments
(and thus for them would be competence enhancing), for Keuffel & Esser, the calculator
was a competence-destroying innovation.
bicycles had extremely large front wheels. Because there were no gears, the size of
the front wheel directly determined the speed of the bicycle since the circumference
of the wheel was the distance that could be traveled in a single rotation of the ped-
als. However, by the start of the twentieth century, improvements in metallurgy had
enabled the production of a fine chain and a sprocket that was small enough and light
enough for a human to power. This enabled bicycles to be built with two equally sized
wheels, while using gears to accomplish the speeds that the large front wheel had
enabled. Because smaller wheels meant shorter shock-absorbing spokes, the move to
smaller wheels also prompted the development of suspension systems and pneumatic
(air-filled) tires. The new bicycles were lighter, cheaper, and more flexible. This
architectural innovation led to the rise of companies such as Dunlop (which invented
the pneumatic tire) and Raleigh (which pioneered the three-speed, all-steel bicycle),
and transformed the bicycle from a curiosity into a practical transportation device.
For a firm to initiate or adopt a component innovation may require that the firm
have knowledge only about that component. However, for a firm to initiate or adopt an
architectural innovation typically requires that the firm have architectural knowledge
about the way components link and integrate to form the whole system. Firms must
be able to understand how the attributes of components interact, and how changes in
some system features might trigger the need for changes in many other design features
of the overall system or the individual components.
TECHNOLOGY S-CURVES
Both the rate of a technology’s performance improvement and the rate at which the
technology is adopted in the marketplace repeatedly have been shown to conform to an
s-shape curve. Though s-curves in technology performance and s-curves in technology
diffusion are related (improvements in performance may foster faster adoption, and
greater adoption may motivate further investment in improving performance), they are
52 Part One Industry Dynamics of Technological Innovation
FIGURE 3.1
S-Curve of Limit of Technology
Technology
Performance
Performance
Effort
Chapter 3 Types and Patterns of Innovation 53
relatively constant over time, plotting performance against time will result in the same
characteristic curve as plotting performance against effort. However, if the amount of
effort invested in a technology decreases or increases over time, the resulting curve could
appear to flatten much more quickly, or not flatten at all. For instance, one of the more
well-known technology trajectories is described by an axiom that became known as
Moore’s law. In 1965, Gordon Moore, cofounder of Intel, noted that the density of tran-
sistors on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was
invented. That rate has since slowed to doubling every 18 months, but the rate of accel-
eration is still very steep. Figure 3.2 reveals a sharply increasing performance curve.
However, Intel’s rate of investment (research and development dollars per year)
has also been increasing rapidly, as shown in Figure 3.3. Not all of Intel’s R&D
expense goes directly to improving microprocessor power, but it is reasonable to
assume that Intel’s investment specifically in microprocessors would exhibit a simi-
lar pattern of increase. Figure 3.3 shows that the big gains in transistor density have
come at a big cost in terms of effort invested. Though the curve does not yet resemble
the traditional s-curve, its rate of increase is not as sharp as when the curve is plotted
against years. Gordon Moore predicted that transistor miniaturization will reach its
discontinuous physical limits about 2017.
technology Technologies do not always get the opportunity to reach their limits; they may
A technology be rendered obsolete by new, discontinuous technologies. A new innovation is
that fulfills a discontinuous when it fulfills a similar market need, but does so by building on an
similar market entirely new knowledge base.9 For example, the switches from propeller-based planes
need by building
on an entirely to jets, from silver halide (chemical) photography to digital photography, from carbon
new knowledge copying to photocopying, and from vinyl records (or analog cassettes) to compact
base. discs were all technological discontinuities.
FIGURE 3.2
Improvements in Intel’s Microprocessor Transistor Density over Time
FIGURE 3.3
800,000,000
Graph of
Transistor
700,000,000
Density versus
Cumulative
600,000,000
R&D Expense,
1972–2007
Transistor Density 500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative R&D Expense ($millions)
Initially, the technological discontinuity may have lower performance than the
incumbent technology. For instance, one of the earliest automobiles, introduced in 1771
by Nicolas Joseph Cugnot, was never put into commercial production because it was
much slower and harder to operate than a horse-drawn carriage. It was three-wheeled,
steam-powered, and could travel at 2.3 miles per hour. A number of steam- and gas-
powered vehicles were introduced in the 1800s, but it was not until the early 1900s
that automobiles began to be produced in quantity.
In early stages, effort invested in a new technology may reap lower returns than
effort invested in the current technology, and firms are often reluctant to switch.
However, if the disruptive technology has a steeper s-curve (see Figure 3.4a) or an
s-curve that increases to a higher performance limit (see Figure 3.4b), there may come
a time when the returns to effort invested in the new technology are much higher
than effort invested in the incumbent technology. New firms entering the industry
are likely to choose the disruptive technology, and incumbent firms face the difficult
choice of trying to extend the life of their current technology or investing in switch-
ing to the new technology. If the disruptive technology has much greater performance
potential for a given amount of effort, in the long run it is likely to displace the incum-
bent technology, but the rate at which it does so can vary significantly.
FIGURE 3.5
Average $1,000
Sales Prices
of Consumer $800
Electronics
Source: Consumer
$600
Electronics
Association.
$400
$200
$0
00
02
04
90
80
96
92
86
98
82
88
94
84
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
VCR CD Player Cell Phone
FIGURE 3.6
Penetration 100%
of Consumer 90%
Percent of U.S. Households
Electronics 80%
70%
Source: Consumer
Electronics 60%
Association. 50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
00
02
04
90
80
96
92
86
98
82
88
94
84
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
drops, further accelerating adoption by users. For example, as shown in Figures 3.5
and 3.6, drops in average sales prices for video recorders, compact disc players, and
cell phones roughly correspond to their increases in household penetration.
multiple producers. Managers could then use these curves to assess whether a technol-
ogy appears to be approaching its limits or to identify new technologies that might be
emerging on s-curves that will intersect the firm’s technology s-curve. Managers could
then switch s-curves by acquiring or developing the new technology. However, as a
prescriptive tool, the s-curve model has several serious limitations.
TECHNOLOGY CYCLES
The s-curve model above suggests that technological change is cyclical: Each new
s-curve ushers in an initial period of turbulence, followed by rapid improvement, then
diminishing returns, and ultimately is displaced by a new technological discontinuity.16
The emergence of a new technological discontinuity can overturn the existing competi-
tive structure of an industry, creating new leaders and new losers. Schumpeter called
this process creative destruction, and argued that it was the key driver of progress in a
capitalist society.17
Several studies have tried to identify and characterize the stages of the technology
cycle in order to better understand why some technologies succeed and others fail,
and whether established firms or new firms are more likely to be successful in intro-
ducing or adopting a new technology.18 One technology evolution model that rose to
58 Part One Industry Dynamics of Technological Innovation
Research Brief
The Diffusion of Innovation and Adopter
Categories
S-curves in technology diffusion are often early adopters make excellent missionaries for new
explained as a process of different categories products or processes. Rogers estimated that the
of people adopting the technology at different next 13.5 percent of individuals to adopt an inno-
times. One typology of adopter categories that vation (after innovators) are in this category.
gained prominence was proposed by Everett
M. Rogers.a Figure 3.7 shows each of Rogers’s EARLY MAJORITY
adopter categories on a technology diffusion Rogers identifies the next 34 percent of individuals
s-curve. The figure also shows that if the non- in a social system to adopt a new innovation as the
cumulative share of each of these adopter groups early majority. The early majority adopts innova-
is plotted on the vertical axis with time on the tions slightly before the average member of a
horizontal axis, the resulting curve is typically social system. They are typically not opinion lead-
bell shaped (though in practice it may be skewed ers, but they interact frequently with their peers.
right or left).
LATE MAJORITY
INNOVATORS The next 34 percent of the individuals in a social
Innovators are the first individuals to adopt an system to adopt an innovation are the late major-
innovation. Extremely adventurous in their pur- ity, according to Rogers. Like the early majority, the
chasing behavior, they are comfortable with late majority constitutes one-third of the individ-
a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. uals in a social system. Those in the late majority
Innovators typically have access to substantial approach innovation with a skeptical air and may
financial resources (and thus can afford the losses not adopt the innovation until they feel pres-
incurred in unsuccessful adoption decisions). sure from their peers. The late majority may have
Though they are not always well integrated into scarce resources, thus making them reluctant to
a particular social system, innovators play an invest in adoption until most of the uncertainty
extremely important role in the diffusion of an about the innovation has been resolved.
innovation because they are the individuals who
bring new ideas into the social system. Rogers LAGGARDS
estimated that the first 2.5 percent of individuals The last 16 percent of the individuals in a social
to adopt a new technology are in this category. system to adopt an innovation are termed lag-
gards. They may base their decisions primarily
EARLY ADOPTERS
upon past experience rather than influence from
The second category of adopters is the early
the social network, and they possess almost no
adopters. Early adopters are well integrated into
opinion leadership. They are highly skeptical of
their social system and have the greatest poten-
innovations and innovators, and they must feel
tial for opinion leadership. Early adopters are
certain that a new innovation will not fail before
respected by their peers and know that to retain
adopting it.
that respect they must make sound innovation
adoption decisions. Other potential adopters look a
E. M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, 3rd ed. (New
to early adopters for information and advice; thus York: Free Press, 1983).
continued
Chapter 3 Types and Patterns of Innovation 59
concluded
FIGURE 3.7
Technology Diffusion S-Curve with Adopter Categories
100%
Cumulative
Adopters Laggards
84%
Late Majority
50%
Early Majority
16%
Early Adopters
2.5% Innovators
Time
(a)
34%
Share
13.5%
2.5%
Time
(b)
Theory in Action “Segment Zero”—A Serious Threat to Microsoft?
From 1980 to 2012, Microsoft was entrenched as the feature-rich products can command higher margins.
dominant personal computer operating system, giv- Though customers may also expect to have better-
ing it enormous influence over many aspects of the performing products over time, their ability to fully
computer hardware and software industries. Though utilize such performance improvements is slowed
competing operating systems had been introduced by the need to learn how to use new features and
during that time (e.g., Unix, Geoworks, NeXTSTEP, adapt their work and lifestyles. Thus, while both
Linux, and the Mac OS), Microsoft’s share of the per- the trajectory of technology improvement and the
sonal computer operating system market held sta- trajectory of customer demands are upward slop-
ble at roughly 85 percent throughout most of that ing, the trajectory for technology improvement is
period. In 2013, however, Microsoft’s dominance steeper (for simplicity, the technology trajectories
in computer operating systems was under greater are drawn in Figure 3.8 as straight lines and plotted
threat than it had ever been. A high-stakes race for against time in order to compare them against cus-
dominance over the next generation of computing tomer requirements).
was well underway, and Microsoft was not even in In Figure 3.8, the technology trajectory begins
the front pack. at a point where it provides performance close to
that demanded by the mass market, but over time
“SEGMENT ZERO” it increases faster than the expectations of the mass
As Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel, noted in market as the firm targets the high-end market. As
1998, in many industries—including microproces- the price of the technology rises, the mass market
sors, software, motorcycles, and electric vehicles— may feel it is overpaying for technological features it
technologies improve faster than customer demands does not value. In Figure 3.9, the low-end market is
of those technologies increase. Firms often add fea- not being served; it either pays far more for technol-
tures (speed, power, etc.) to products faster than cus- ogy that it does not need, or it goes without. It is this
tomers’ capacity to absorb them. Why would firms market that Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel, refers
provide higher performance than that required by to as segment zero.
the bulk of their customers? The answer appears to For Intel, segment zero was the market for low-
lie in the market segmentation and pricing objec- end personal computers (those less than $1,000).
tives of a technology’s providers. As competition in While segment zero may seem unattractive in terms
an industry drives prices and margins lower, firms of margins, if it is neglected, it can become the
often try to shift sales into progressively higher tiers breeding ground for companies that provide lower-
of the market. In these tiers, high performance and end versions of the technology. As Grove notes,
Technology
High-end
trajectory
technology
High-end market High-end market
Low-end
technology
Time Time
continued
60
concluded
“The overlooked, underserved, and seemingly business model used for the phones was also extremely
unprofitable end of the market can provide fertile attractive to both developers and customers, and
ground for massive competitive change.”a quickly resulted in enormous libraries of applications
As the firms serving low-end markets with sim- that ranged from the ridiculous to the indispensible.
pler technologies ride up their own trajectories From a traditional economics perspective, the
(which are also steeper than the slope of the trajec- phone operating system market should not be that
tories of customer expectations), they can eventually attractive to Microsoft—people do not spend as much
reach a performance level that meets the demands on the applications, and the carriers have too much
of the mass market, while offering a much lower bargaining power, among other reasons. However,
price than the premium technology (see Figure 3.9). those smartphone operating systems soon became
At this point, the firms offering the premium tech- tablet operating systems, and tablets were rapidly
nology may suddenly find they are losing the bulk becoming fully functional computers. Suddenly,
of their sales revenue to industry contenders that do all of that mindshare that Apple and Google had
not look so low end anymore. For example, by 1998, achieved in smartphone operating systems was
the combination of rising microprocessor power and transforming into mindshare in personal computer
decreasing prices enabled personal computers priced operating systems. Despite years of masterminding
under $1,000 to capture 20 percent of the market. the computing industry, Microsoft’s dominant posi-
tion was at risk of evaporating. The outcome was
THE THREAT TO MICROSOFT still uncertain–in 2015 Microsoft had an impressive
So where was the “segment zero” that could threaten arsenal of capital, talent, and relationships in its
Microsoft? Look in your pocket. In 2015, Apple’s armory—but for the first time, it was fighting the
iPhone operating system (iOS) and Google’s Android battle from a disadvantaged position.
collectively controlled over 90 percent of the world-
wide market for smartphone, followed by Research
in Motion’s Blackberry.b Gartner estimates put a
A. S. Grove, “Managing Segment Zero,” Leader to Leader,
Microsoft’s share at 3 percent. The iOS and Android 1999, p. 11.
interfaces offered a double whammy of beautiful aes- b
Dignan, L. 2013. Android, Apple iOS flip consumer, corpo-
thetics and remarkable ease of use. The applications rate market share. Between the Lines, February 13th.
prominence was proposed by Utterback and Abernathy. They observed that a tech-
nology passed through distinct phases. In the first phase (what they termed the fluid
phase), there was considerable uncertainty about both the technology and its market.
Products or services based on the technology might be crude, unreliable, or expensive,
but might suit the needs of some market niches. In this phase, firms experiment with
different form factors or product features to assess the market response. Eventually,
however, producers and customers begin to arrive at some consensus about the desired
dominant product attributes, and a dominant design emerges.19 The dominant design estab-
design lishes a stable architecture for the technology and enables firms to focus their efforts
A product design on process innovations that make production of the design more effective and effi-
that is adopted
by the majority
cient or on incremental innovations to improve components within the architecture.
of producers, Utterback and Abernathy termed this phase the specific phase because innovations
typically creating in products, materials, and manufacturing processes are all specific to the dominant
a stable archi- design. For example, in the United States the vast majority of energy production is
tecture on which based on the use of fossil fuels (e.g., oil, coal), and the methods of producing energy
the industry can
focus its efforts.
based on these fuels are well established. On the other hand, technologies that produce
energy based on renewable resources (e.g., solar, wind, hydrogen) are still in the fluid
61
62 Part One Industry Dynamics of Technological Innovation
FIGURE 3.10
The Era of Ferment
Technology Design Competition
Substitution
Cycle
phase. Organizations such as Royal Dutch/Shell, General Electric, and Ballard Power
are experimenting with various forms of solar photocell technologies, wind-turbine
technologies, and hydrogen fuel cells in efforts to find methods of using renewable
resources that meet the capacity and cost requirements of serving large populations.
Building on the Utterback and Abernathy model, Anderson and Tushman studied the
history of the U.S. minicomputer, cement, and glass industries through several cycles
of technological change. Like Utterback and Abernathy, Anderson and Tushman found
that each technological discontinuity inaugurated a period of turbulence and uncertainty
(which they termed the era of ferment) (see Figure 3.10). The new technology might offer
breakthrough capabilities, but there is little agreement about what the major subsystems
of the technology should be or how they should be configured together. Furthermore, as
later researchers noted, during the era of ferment different stakeholders might have dif-
ferent concepts of what purpose the technology should serve, or how a business model
might be built around it.20 Thus, while the new technology displaces the old (Anderson
and Tushman refer to this as substitution), there is considerable design competition as
firms experiment with different forms of the technology. Just as in the Utterback and
Abernathy model, Anderson and Tushman found that a dominant design always arose
to command the majority of the market share unless the next discontinuity arrived too
soon and disrupted the cycle, or several producers patented their own proprietary tech-
nologies and refused to license to each other. Anderson and Tushman also found that the
dominant design was never in the same form as the original discontinuity, but it was also
never on the leading edge of the technology. Instead of maximizing performance on any
individual dimension of the technology, the dominant design tended to bundle together
a combination of features that best fulfilled the demands of the majority of the market.
In the words of Anderson and Tushman, the rise of a dominant design signals the
transition from the era of ferment to the era of incremental change.21 In this era, firms
focus on efficiency and market penetration. Firms may attempt to achieve greater market
segmentation by offering different models and price points. They may also attempt to
lower production costs by simplifying the design or improving the production process.
This period of accumulating small improvements may account for the bulk of the techno-
logical progress in an industry, and it continues until the next technological discontinuity.
Understanding the knowledge that firms develop during different eras lends insight
into why successful firms often resist the transition to a new technology, even if it
Chapter 3 Types and Patterns of Innovation 63
provides significant advantages. During the era of incremental change, many firms
cease to invest in learning about alternative design architectures and instead invest
in refining their competencies related to the dominant architecture. Most competition
revolves around improving components rather than altering the architecture; thus,
companies focus their efforts on developing component knowledge and knowledge
related to the dominant architecture. As firms’ routines and capabilities become more
and more wedded to the dominant architecture, the firms become less able to identify
and respond to a major architectural innovation. For example, the firm might estab-
lish divisions based on the primary components of the architecture and structure the
communication channels between divisions on the basis of how those components
interact. In the firm’s effort to absorb and process the vast amount of information avail-
able to it, it is likely to establish filters that enable it to identify the information most
crucial to its understanding of the existing technology design.22 As the firm’s exper-
tise, structure, communication channels, and filters all become oriented around maxi-
mizing its ability to compete in the existing dominant design, they become barriers to
the firm’s recognizing and reacting to a new technology architecture.
While many industries appear to conform to this model in which a dominant design
emerges, there are exceptions. In some industries, heterogeneity of products and
production processes are a primary determinant of value, and thus a dominant design
is undesirable.23 For example, art and cuisine may be examples of industries in which
there is more pressure to do things differently than to settle upon a standard.
Summary 1. Different dimensions have been used to distinguish types of innovation. Some of
of the most widely used dimensions include product versus process innovation, radical
versus incremental innovation, competence-enhancing versus competence-destroying
Chapter innovation, and architectural versus component innovation.
2. A graph of technology performance over cumulative effort invested often exhibits an
s-shape curve. This suggests that performance improvement in a new technology is
initially difficult and costly, but, as the fundamental principles of the technology are
worked out, it then begins to accelerate as the technology becomes better understood,
and finally diminishing returns set in as the technology approaches its inherent limits.
3. A graph of a technology’s market adoption over time also typically exhibits an
s-shape curve. Initially the technology may seem uncertain and there may be great
costs or risks for potential adopters. Gradually, the technology becomes more cer-
tain (and its costs may be driven down), enabling the technology to be adopted by
larger market segments. Eventually the technology’s diffusion slows as it reaches
market saturation or is displaced by a newer technology.
4. The rate at which a technology improves over time is often faster than the rate at
which customer requirements increase over time. This means technologies that
initially met the demands of the mass market may eventually exceed the needs of
the market. Furthermore, technologies that initially served only low-end custom-
ers (segment zero) may eventually meet the needs of the mass market and capture
the market share that originally went to the higher-performing technology.
5. Technological change often follows a cyclical pattern. First, a technological
discontinuity causes a period of turbulence and uncertainty, and producers and
64 Part One Industry Dynamics of Technological Innovation
Discussion
1. What are some reasons that established firms might resist adopting a new
Questions technology?
2. Are well-established firms or new entrants more likely to (a) develop and/or
(b) adopt new technologies? Why?
3. Think of an example of an innovation you have studied at work or school. How
would you characterize it on the dimensions described at the beginning of the
chapter?
4. What are some reasons that both technology improvement and technology
diffusion exhibit s-shape curves?
5. Why do technologies often improve faster than customer requirements? What are
the advantages and disadvantages to a firm of developing a technology beyond the
current state of market needs?
6. In what industries would you expect to see particularly short technology cycles?
In what industries would you expect to see particularly long technology cycles?
What factors might influence the length of technology cycles in an industry?
Suggested Classics
Further Anderson, P., and M. L. Tushman, “Technological discontinuities and dominant
designs,” Administrative Science Quarterly 35 (1990), pp. 604–33.
Reading
Bijker, W. E., T. P. Hughes, and T. J. Pinch, The Social Construction of Technological
Systems (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1987).
Christensen, C. M., The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great
Firms to Fail (Boston: Harvard Business School Publishing, 1997).
Dosi, G., “Technological paradigms and technological trajectories,” Research Policy
11 (1982), pp. 147–60.
Rogers, E., Diffusion of Innovations, 5th ed. (New York: Simon & Schuster Publishing,
2003).
Utterback, J. M., and W. J. Abernathy, “A dynamic model of process and product
innovations,” Omega 3 (1975), pp. 639–56.