Iii - Energy and Climate Global Energy Demand and Supply-Present and Future

REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
RIZAL TEHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING ANF INDUSTRIAL TECNOLOGY
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
Boni Ave., Mandaluyong City
III.ENERGY AND CLIMATE

Global Energy Demand and Supply- Present and Future.
Acceleration in 2018 energy consumption (+ 2.3 per cent) led by strong
growth in demand for electricity and gas. Global energy consumption increased
significantly in 2018, powered by continued economic growth and rising demand
in China, the world's largest user of energy since 2009.Chinese energy
consumption recorded its highest growth since 2012, driven mainly by power
generation, strong industrial demand and increased consumption of
transportation fuel supported by an increasing fleet of vehicles. Total energy
consumption in the United States reached a record high of 2.3 Gtoe (Gigatone of
oil equivalent) in 2018, up 3.5% from 2017, partially driven by weather conditions
(hot summer, cold winter).
On the contrary, energy consumption in the European Union (- 1%) and
especially in Germany (- 3.5%) decreased partly due to decreasing power
consumption, a milder winter, reduced consumption and improved energy
efficiency.
Energy is a key ingredient in every step of society. We live in a world that is
very interdependent, and access to sufficient and reliable energy supplies is critical
for economic growth and the quality of our lives. Yet current energy use and
production levels aren't sustainable. Approximately 40 % of the world's electricity
comes from oil, and a lot of that goes to transport uses. Oil prices depend on recent
(or foreseen) discoveries just as much as they rely on political events and
circumstances around the world. With 4.5 % of the world's population, the U.S.
consumes 24 % of the world's oil production per year; it imports 66% of that oil.
Figure 1 displays the principal energy resources used in the planet. Over
the years, the fuel mix has shifted but is now dominated by gasoline, though the
contribution of natural gas and solar is rising. Renewable energy sources are those
which cannot be used up, such as water, wind, solar and biomass. Approximately
85% of our energy comes from non-renewable fossil fuels — oil, natural gas and
coal. In the eyes of many scientists, the possibility of a connection between global
warming and fossil fuel usage, with its carbon dioxide output through combustion,
has made a change to non-fossil fuels of utmost importance— but it won't be easy.
Figure 1. World energy consumption by source, in billions of kilowatt-hours:
2006.
World energy consumption is continuing to increase, particularly in the

developing world. (See figure 2.) Global energy demand has tripled over the past
50 years, and could triple again over the next 30 years. While much of that growth
will come from China and India's rapidly booming economies, many of the
developed countries, particularly those in Europe, hope to meet their energy needs
by exposure. Though currently only a small percentage, renewable energy,
especially wind energy, is growing very rapidly. For example, by 2020, Germany
plans to meet 20 percent of its electricity requirements and 10 percent of its overall
energy needs with renewable resources. Energy is a critical constraint in China
and India's rapid economic growth. China surpassed Japan as the second-largest
consumer of oil in the world in 2003. More than 1/3 of this is imported. Unlike most
Western nations, China’s commercial energy resources are dominated by coal,
accounting for 2/3 of its energy consumption. In 2009, China surpassed the US as
the largest carbon dioxide producer. In India, biomass (wood and dung) and coal
are the principal energy resources. Half of that oil is imported from India.
Approximately 70 per cent of India's electricity comes from highly polluting coal.
But significant steps are being taken in the area of renewable energy. India has a
fast-growing base of wind energy, and the world's largest solar cooking program.
Figure 2. Past and projected world energy use (source: Based on data from
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011)
Climate Influence on Energy Use
 Temperature increases are likely to increase our energy demand, and

change our ability to produce and deliver electricity reliably. Climate
change is likely to both increase the demand for cooling electricity in the
summer and decrease the demand for heating electricity, natural gas,
heating oil and wood in the winter. In order to meet increased energy
needs new infrastructure investments.
 Climate change might affect the amount of water available for
generating electricity or extracting fuel. Competition for the water
between energy production and other uses could increase in areas
where water is already scarce.
 Rising sea level and more frequent intense storms may interfere with
energy production and delivery by damaging electricity networks, fuel
supply infrastructure and equipment, power plants or storage facilities.
The World Energy scenarios at a glance: Jazz and Symphony
The WEC has built two scenarios typified by characteristics, which, each
from their own perspective, may comprehensively describe large parts of the world
in 2050. In this scenario exercise, the elements of the two scenarios are
generalized as being applicable to the (albeit imaginary) whole world: the more
consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario.
While the scenarios are ‘music based’, they are completely different in nature.
Jazz- As an energy scenario, Jazz has a focus on energy equity with priority given
to achieving individual access and affordability of energy through economic
growth.
Symphony-As an energy scenario, Symphony has a focus on achieving

environmental sustainability through internationally coordinated policies and
practices.
JAZZ SYMPHONY
World where customers focus on achieving World where there is agreement among
energy availability, sustainability and quality voters to support environmental sustainability
of supply through the use of the best energy and energy security through acceptable
sources available. practices and policies.
Main players are multi- Governments, the public sector and private
national corporations, banks, venture capital companies, NGOs and eco-
ists and consumers who are price conscious friendly voters are key players.
.
On competitive markets innovations are Governments pick winners in innovation
selected
Sources of energy compete according to Governments endorse and enable established
price and availability. energy sources
Higher GDP growth due to more country- Lower GDP growth due to lower productivity,
wide integration, higher international greater environmental restrictions and a more
competition and reduced environmental capital-intensive road to development
constraints.
Free trade policies lead to exports rising Nationalist policies reduce exports / imports
Renewable and low-carbon energy rises Several forms of low-
according to market demand carbon and renewable energy actively
promoted by the governments
In the absence of international commitments The carbon market is top down, with
on the carbon market, global, national and obligations and allocations focused on
local policies are growing more gradually international agreement.
from the bottom up.
Conclusion
It is important to draw certain distinctions in the field of energy use between

two words which are sometimes confused. As noted elsewhere, the "energy
conservation law" is a very useful theory for the study of physical processes. It is
a theory which cannot be proved on the basis of basic principles, but is a very good
bookkeeping tool and no exceptions have ever been found.
It states that, in an isolated system, the total amount of energy will always
remain constant. The essential concept of energy conservation is related to this
principle but is remarkably different from it. This concept has to do with trying to
reduce the amount of energy used by an individual or group by (1) reducing
activities (e.g, turning down thermostats, driving fewer kilometers) and/or (2)
growing convers ion efficiencies in the performance of a specific task such as
developing and using more efficient room heaters, cars that have greater miles-
per-gallon ratings, energy-efficient compact fluorescent lights, etc.
Because energy is not lost, produced or developed in an isolated system,
one might wonder why we need to worry about energy resources, because energy
is a conserved quantity. The problem is that the end result of most energy
transformation is the transfer of waste heat to the atmosphere and the conversion
into forms of energy that are no longer useful for doing work. To put it another way,
the energy potential for generating useful work has been “degraded” in
transforming technology.

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REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES

RIZAL TEHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

III.ENERGY AND CLIMATE

World energy consumption is continuing to increase, particularly in the

Climate Influence on Energy Use

 Temperature increases are likely to increase our energy demand, and

The World Energy scenarios at a glance: Jazz and Symphony

Symphony-As an energy scenario, Symphony has a focus on achieving

It is important to draw certain distinctions in the field of energy use between

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