Scribd
Upload
394 views7 pages

Case Study Report 2: 2020 Busa3015 - Business Forecasting

This document provides instructions for Case Study Report 2 of the 2020 BUSA3015 - Business Forecasting course. Students must complete 3 exercises involving forecasting food retailing data for 2020. Exercise 1 requires a linear regression forecast with time as the sole predictor. Exercise 2 uses multiple regression with time and dummy variables as predictors. Students submit numerical responses to 2 quizzes and a written report analyzing and comparing the 2 models, making recommendations. The report must not exceed 3 pages and 800 words. Late submissions are penalized 10% per day.

Uploaded by

'Josh G Mwaniki
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
394 views7 pages

Case Study Report 2: 2020 Busa3015 - Business Forecasting

This document provides instructions for Case Study Report 2 of the 2020 BUSA3015 - Business Forecasting course. Students must complete 3 exercises involving forecasting food retailing data for 2020. Exercise 1 requires a linear regression forecast with time as the sole predictor. Exercise 2 uses multiple regression with time and dummy variables as predictors. Students submit numerical responses to 2 quizzes and a written report analyzing and comparing the 2 models, making recommendations. The report must not exceed 3 pages and 800 words. Late submissions are penalized 10% per day.

Uploaded by

'Josh G Mwaniki
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 7

2020 BUSA3015 – BUSINESS FORECASTING

Case Study Report 2

Due: 11:59 pm, Monday 26th October

Format

The submission of this assessment requires:


▪ A numerical submission for Exercise 1 and Exercise 2 via an iLearn quiz tool.
▪ A written submission for Exercise 3 via a PDF submission through Turn-It-In.

The main tables, charts and results should be presented throughout the report to highlight
your responses to the questions. There is no need for an appendix.

For the numerical submission: an online quiz tool will be available on iLearn from the 21st
of September where you can type in your numerical answers. All answers are to be rounded to
2 decimal places.

For the written submission: 800 words (+/- 10%) not counting labels and numbers on
graphs AND no more than three A4 sheets in portrait/vertical mode (use the template DOC file
provided on iLearn). A Turn-It-In submission link will be available on iLearn from the 19th of
October.

Convert your DOC file into a PDF prior to submission. You will also have to upload your XLS
file through iLearn. Only the PDF file will be marked, the XLS file will not be marked.

There will be a deduction of 10% of the total available marks made from the total awarded
mark for each 24-hour period, or part thereof, that the submission is late (for example, 25
hours late in submission – 20% penalty). This penalty does not apply for cases in which an
application for Special Consideration is made and approved.

1
For the written part of this assignment – the answers must be typed on the pre-
formatted DOC file that has been uploaded on iLearn.

Please do not alter the formatting of the pre-formatted DOC file:


▪ Do not change the font size.
▪ Do not change the line spacing.
▪ Do not change the paragraph settings.
▪ Do not change the page margins.
▪ Do not change the headers or footers.
▪ Do not edit any other component of the file apart from typing your answers and cutting
and pasting relevant output.

Please number your questions. You do not need to re-type your questions.

As per the pre-formatted DOC file on iLearn, your answers will be in Georgia font, size 11. The
answers are to be in black font.

Not adhering to the above will results in a penalisation of marks.

If you want relevant output to be marked, you can cut-and-paste relevant output into these
pages. Any pages including appendices (beyond the required 3 pages) will not be
marked.

2
2020 S2 BUSA3015 – BUSINESS FORECASTING

You have been employed as a consultant for a joint project by the Australian Food and Grocery Council
and the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment.

As part of your role in the Business Analytics and Data Analytics team, you have been asked to forecast
Food Retailing as part of a wider report being commissioned by the above collaboration – on Australia’s
food security.

Questions
▪ Unless you made an error obtaining the correct data, use the same dataset that you used or
Report 1. If you used the incorrect data for Report 1, please consult the unit convenor.
▪ Just as for Report 1, for the purposes of this report, only consider the data from January 2010 to
December 2019 as the sample of data that is available to you – that is, ignore any recent
observations. This means that the first actual observation in your Excel file is from January 2010
and your last actual observation in your Excel file is from December 2019.
▪ Use Excel and no other statistical software for the purposes of this report. You may use Minitab
for constructing correlograms.

This report will require two separate submissions.


The numerical responses need to be submitted via a quiz tool in iLearn.
The written responses need to be submitted via a PDF uploaded via Turn-It-In in iLearn.

[Please turn over]

3
Numerical responses to be submitted via a quiz tool on iLearn:

Exercise 1 (10 marks)


For the Seasonally-adjusted data used in Report 1: Forecast food retailing for every month of 2020
using a simple linear regression with an intercept, and time as the explanatory variable.
Once you perform this regression, what are the following numerical values:
1. The coefficient of time.
2. The t-statistic for the coefficient of time.
3. The p-value for the coefficient of time.
4. The value of the intercept.
5. The value of R2.
6. The within-sample forecast for December 2019.
7. The out-of-sample forecast for January 2020.
8. The out-of-sample forecast for December 2020.
9. The MSE.
10. The MAE.

[Please turn over]

4
Exercise 2 (10 marks)
For the Original data used in Report 1: Forecast food retailing for every month of 2020 using a multiple
linear regression with an intercept, time as an explanatory variable, and 11 dummy variables for all
months except December – hence use December as the base.
Once you perform this regression, what are the following numerical values:
11. The coefficient of time.
12. The t-statistic for the coefficient of time.
13. The p-value for the coefficient of time.
14. The value of the intercept.
15. The value of R2.
16. The within-sample forecast for December 2019.
17. The out-of-sample forecast for January 2020.
18. The out-of-sample forecast for December 2020.
19. The MSE.
20. The MAE.

[Please turn over]

5
Written responses submitted via a PDF upload via Turn-It-In in iLearn:

Exercise 3 (20 marks)

800 words (+/- 10%) not counting labels and numbers on graphs AND no more than three A4 sheets
in portrait/vertical mode (use the template DOC file provided on iLearn):

For Exercise 1 – Label this “Critical Analysis – Exercise 1” (5 marks)


21. Plot a chart that contains both the sample data (January 2010 – December 2019) and the forecasts
(January 2020 – December 2020) – make sure there is a clear distinction between the sample data
and the forecasts.
22. Critically analyse and comment on your smoothing.
23. Perform the appropriate check/s and test/s that help critically analyse whether your model has
captured all the systematic components and/or whether the errors are random. Explain your
answer.

For Exercise 2 – Label this “Critical Analysis – Exercise 2” (5 marks)


24. Plot a chart that contains both the sample data (January 2010 – December 2019) and the forecasts
(January 2020 – December 2020) – make sure there is a clear distinction between the sample data
and the forecasts.
25. Critically analyse and comment on your smoothing.
26. Perform the appropriate check/s and test/s that help critically analyse whether your model has
captured all the systematic components and/or whether the errors are random. Explain your
answer.

For both Exercise 1 and Exercise 2 – Label this “Critical Analysis, Evaluation, and Recommendation”
(10 marks)
27. Compare and contrast the two models (in this report) and critically analyse your results and put
forward a recommendation for your choice of model.
28. Do any of your results (for any of the above questions) suggest any re-evaluation or modification
of the forecasting method/s, if at all? Explain your answer.
29. Given that you have some of the actual data available for 2020, critically evaluate your forecasts
and forecasting method.

6
30. Compare and contrast the models from Exercise 1 in Report 1 and Report 2 and critically analyse
your results and put forward a recommendation for your choice of model.
31. Compare and contrast the models from Exercise 2 in Report 1 and Report 2 and critically analyse
your results and put forward a recommendation for your choice of model.

END OF CASE STUDY

You might also like