Rakesh Mohan: Economic Reforms in India - Where Are We and Where Do We Go?
Rakesh Mohan: Economic Reforms in India - Where Are We and Where Do We Go?
Rakesh Mohan: Economic Reforms in India - Where Are We and Where Do We Go?
go?
Lecture by Dr Rakesh Mohan, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at a Public Seminar
organized by the Institute of South Asia Studies, Singapore, 10 November 2006.
Views expressed are personal.
* * *
We have now had a decade and a half of economic reforms. It is perhaps appropriate at this point to
stand back and take stock of what we have done as we venture further. Today I shall, therefore, make
an effort to (a) review what has been done; (b) evaluate where we are; and (c) suggest where we need
to go.
Let me give you the backdrop as to what motivated me to choose this topic. I recently came across,
The Tipping Point: How Little Things Make a Big Difference, by Malcolm Gladwell. He observes that
many large changes sometimes happen in a hurry. Whereas there is usually a step by step, gradual
process of little changes taking place, an epidemic suddenly acquires a tipping point and spreads
suddenly. I believe that at the present juncture we are in need of such an epidemic of change and
growth; we are perhaps at the tipping point. The macro-foundations of a healthy environment have
been laid and now we need lots of little things to make a big difference.
Monetary policy
Over the 1970s and 1980s, monetary policy, as we know it, had become almost non-existent: with a
system of credit allocation, administered and different interest rates for different purposes; automatic
monetization of fiscal deficits; and financial repression through pre-emption of banks’ resources.
Hence a number of measures had to be taken. These include: elimination of automatic monetization,
reduction of statutory pre-emption of the lendable resource of banks, and interest rate deregulation. As
a result of these measures independence of monetary policy and the central bank has been restored.
There was a consequent movement from direct to indirect instruments of monetary policy. These
changes in the practice of monetary policy are manifest in its effectiveness in the significant reduction
of inflation. In fact, if one bifurcates the period since independence into two, one from the early 1950s
to late 1990s, and the other since the late-1990s to present day, then there is marked difference in the
average inflation rates between the two periods. While it was around 7-8 per cent during the first forty
five years, it has fallen to around five per cent in the recent period since the late 1990s.
Industrial policy
Massive deregulation of the industrial sector, in fact, constituted the first major package of reforms in
July 1991. The obsolete system of capacity licensing of industries was discontinued; the existing
legislative restrictions on the expansion of large companies were removed; phased manufacturing
programmes were terminated; and the reservation of many basic industries for investment only by the
public sector was removed. At the same time restrictions that existed on the import of foreign
technology were withdrawn, and a new regime welcoming foreign direct investment, hitherto
discouraged with limits on foreign ownership, was introduced. With this massive reform introduced in
one stroke in 1991, the stage was set for a policy framework that encouraged new entry, introduced
new competition, both domestic and foreign, which thereby induced the attainment of much greater
efficiency in industry over a period of time. One area of industrial reform that has been sluggish has
been the removal of restrictions that exist on investment in most labour using industries – known as
small scale industry reservations. In 1991 as many as 836 industries were reserved for investment by
only small firms, defined by the level of investment. The number of these industries has now come
down to 326.
Infrastructure
A number of measures have been initiated in the development of infrastructure since 1996. Many of
these reforms emanated from the recommendations of the India Infrastructure Report of the mid
1990s. We recognized that infrastructure investment had to be raised and suggested introduction of
the private sector in infrastructure which had been restricted earlier. This was part of a world wide
move during the 1990s. This has also necessitated other wide ranging reforms including new
legislations and formation of regulatory authorities.
With deregulation, introduction of the private sector and formation of the Telecom Regulatory Authority
of India (TRAI), telecom is indeed a success story. The major reforms in roadways were: imposition of
a fuel cess to finance highway construction; the commissioning of the National Highway Development
Project and PMGSY (Prime Minister's Gram Sadak Yojana or the Rural Roads Programme). In case of
ports private operators have been introduced and then the Tariff Authority of Major Ports (TAMP)
formed; in civil aviation new private airlines, new private airports and the beginning of an open skies
policy are in evidence. In all these cases the response has been positive.
In other infrastructure sectors, the reform process experience has been mixed. In the power sector,
where some of the early efforts for reform were made in the early 1990s, problems continue to
constrain its expansion. A comprehensive modern electricity act has been enacted, which has
enabling features for encouraging private sector entry, enhanced competition, and rational regulation.
However, despite the formation of a central regulatory authority and others at the state level,
Financial sector
Financial sector reform is another area of India's success story. A major element of the financial sector
reform was the introduction of competition enhancing measures. Introduction of operational autonomy
and partial disinvestment of public ownership in public sector banks, entry of new private and foreign
banks and permission for FDI and portfolio investment in banking are some the major reform
measures in this area. Listing of almost all public sector banks is another major reform in this regard.
Besides, prudential regulations have been strengthened in line with Basel I standards and are now in
process of being updated to Basel II standards. An effort has been put in for phased implementation of
international best practices such as, CRAR, provisioning and income recognition norms, exposure
limits and measures to strengthen risk management.
The introduction of partial private sector ownership in public sector banks and their consequent listing
has been extremely important for market orientation of these banks and transparency in their accounts
and operations. This gradual process of banking sector reforms has contributed significantly to the all
round improvement in the financial health of the banking system.
Among other segments of the financial sector, new private insurance companies have been introduced
with limited foreign ownership. Subsequent to insurance nationalization in the 1950s and 1960s, all
insurance was in the public sector, with just one life insurance company and four general insurance
companies. The introduction of new competition has led to the introduction of new products and new
practices. A new regulator, the Insurance Regulation and Development Authority (IRDA) has been
formed to govern the insurance industry.
The capital market has been revived with both policy reforms and financial infrastructure development.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India was formed as the capital market regulator; a new
modern technology oriented stock exchange was formed (the National Stock Exchange, NSE); private
sector mutual funds allowed and encouraged; along with the abolition of the Controller of Capital
Issues (CCI) who controlled both issuance of securities and administered their price. A particular
development has been the building of world class payment and settlement architecture in the stock
market and government securities market. The one area that still needs considerable attention and
development is the corporate bond market.
Agriculture
Agriculture is the key significant area that has not been subject to comprehensive reforms. It is not
widely understood, though, that the reduction of industrial tariffs improved the domestic terms of trade
significantly for agriculture. In terms of trade reforms in agriculture, these have been constrained by
the lack of progress in the WTO and the intransigence of developed countries in the reduction of their
farm subsidies. There have, however, been a number of significant reforms: removal of restraints on
inter state movement of foodgrains; the restructuring of the public distribution system (PDS); relaxation
of restrictions under the Essential Commodities Act; introduction of forward trading in most agricultural
commodities; and removal of some marketing restrictions on crop produce. There is no doubt,
however, that agricultural development needs much more focused attention in order to revive the
somewhat stagnating agricultural economy.
Having given a bird's eye view of the reforms measures let me now turn to the outcome of this whole
wide ranging reform process.
Fiscal performance has still some way to go. The gross fiscal deficit has come down from 7 per cent in
1993-94 to 4.1 per cent in 2005-06. However, this needs to go to 3 per cent by 2009. Tax Revenue
has just recovered to 10 per cent of GDP, about the 1991-92 level, and needs much greater growth
(Table 5). Inflation is down from the 45 year average of 7 - 8 per cent to 4.5 - 5.0 per cent. So we have
achieved some major macro and monetary improvements. However, growth needs investment and
savings. Although the growth process stuttered somewhat in the late 1990s and early part of this
decade, it has clearly recovered now and we seem to be on a sustainable path of annual GDP growth
in excess of 8 per cent. After the award of the Pay Commission in 1997, public finances had come
under strain and hence public savings had become negative. This was also accompanied by a
business cycle slowdown and low profitability in the private corporate sector and low corporate
savings. Both recoveries have now taken place: public sector savings are now again positive; and
corporate profitability is also very healthy. With continuing growth in household savings, gross
domestic savings are now 30 per cent plus and hence sustained investment rates in excess of 32 per
Financial sector reforms in general and banking reforms in particular have been a key ingredient of the
Indian reforms process. As a result of these reforms, statutory pre-emptions of banks (in the form of
high cash reserve and statutory liquidity ratio) got reduced to a great extent - so was the extent of
financial repression. Interestingly the asset quality of the Indian banks has improved to a great extent
with a distinct improvement in capital-to-risk adjusted assets ratio (CRAR) of banks which is much
above the stipulated level (9 per cent), and drastic reduction in NPA levels, notwithstanding the
transition to 90-day delinquency norm in 2004 (Table 6). The initial recapitalization by government in
the public sector banks has been rather meagre (about 1 per cent of GDP) which was supported by
equity issuance by the public sector banks. With public listing the public sector banks in India are now
more subject to market discipline. Furthermore, there has been a distinct improvement in post-reform
productivity as reflected in various indicators such as, business per employee, profit per employee and
branch productivity. These productivity gains can be attributed to both technological improvement as
well as peer pressure or catching up effect.
There is in fact a new confidence in the air. Let me give some random illustrations - TISCO is the
lowest cost steel producer, Hindalco / Sterlite / NALCO are competitive aluminum producer, Reliance
is a major petrochemical producer. We now have world class producers in most sectors and there are
many more success stories. Moser Baer exports more than Rs.1000 crore; Hero Honda with 1.7
million motor cycles is the largest producer of motor cycles; one now gets a wide range of automobiles
in India such as Maruti, Tata, Hyundai, Toyota, GM, Ford; in Pharma there are Ranbaxy and Dr
Reddy’s among others; Bharat Forge exports castings and forgings to all main auto producers;
Sundaram Clayton has been adjudged as Best GM supplier.
Let me sum up the broad contours of success of the overall economic reform programme. In general,
the reform programme has achieved remarkable success. Annual GDP growth has averaged 6 to 6.5
per cent during the whole 15 year period since reforms began, and is now ascending to a higher
trajectory of 8 per cent plus sustained growth. The external sector is comfortable: gone are the days of
perpetual "shortage" of foreign exchange. In contrast, some observers view India’s foreign exchange
as reserves as a problem of plenty. Industrial growth has been restored and the manufacturing sector
has found a new level of competitiveness, quality and efficiency. There is a transformation in the
external impression of the Indian economy: it is now viewed with a sense of some awe and confidence
in its potential of sustainable high growth. Finally, measured poverty has been reduced significantly.
But we still have miles to go. The poverty ratio of 23-26 per cent is still too high, about a quarter billion
people living in poverty are too many. Employment growth is inadequate and we have an expanding
young labour force, which will demand quality jobs. Public service delivery continues to be poor, with
little sign of improvement.
Let me now turn to a menu of things that we need to do.
Agriculture
One of the most disturbing features of the recent growth experience has been that of the deceleration
in agriculture growth (Table 9).
Vocational training
What will these schools teach? Every educational system has had to deal with the tension between
the need for basic secondary education and vocational training, and the difficulties involved in guiding
children appropriately to the different streams. Here again, there has been little organized thinking in
India. Technical training has essentially been provided by Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) but they
are not many, and often do not turn out students with the relevant skills. It is interesting that in India
there are 175 defined trades that can be subject to organised training; in Germany there are 2500
such defined trades and occupations, each with its organized training syllabi, training certification, and
availability of training institutions. The famed German vocational training system involves a very
complex web of interaction between the federal government, state governments, local chambers of
commerce, and firms that fund and take on the trainees. Whereas it would not be appropriate to
suggest that India adopt the German model, which is itself undergoing change and modernization, I
only mention it to suggest that it is possible to evolve an organized approach that makes vocational
training respectable, demand oriented and with great local involvement and accountability. A
beginning has been made in seeking the upgradation of 500 ITIs with industry participation, but much
more needs to be done to ensure regular skill upgradation in all vocations.
The effort will have to involve extensive industry participation at the local level so that the training
imparted is seen as relevant by prospective employers. As with the new requirements for agricultural
extension systems, the systems for vocational training will need to have great heterogeneity in both
the kind of training to be imparted but also how the training to be organised, accordingly to the
different needs in the widely disparate regions of India. We also need to recognise that service
occupations need organised training as well. One can illustrate this by the longtime recognition of
training needs in the hotel industry and how the private sector itself has set up a large number of
excellent training institutions. Similar has been the case in information technology where many private
sector training institutions emerged as demand started rising. Hence this is clearly an area that is most
well suited for public private partnerships. Once again, however, the organisation of public private
partnerships also involves a great deal of organizational capacity in the public sector, which designs
delivery systems in - a way that they spawn efficiency, productivity and innovation.
Health
Before I close on the subject of human resources, I should mention the issue of health. This is in itself
a vast and complex subject which I am not competent to even touch. The key point that has to be
made, however, is that economic efficiency can only be achieved at different levels if people are
healthy. Whereas, a good deal of success has been achieved in almost eliminating a number of
infectious diseases of the past, morbidity in India remains high. There are significant issues related to
the delivery of public health, particularly the availability of clean water and sanitation but there are
equally important issues to do with the delivery of curative health. Here once again, there is
widespread evidence of the deterioration of public medical systems which are being replaced by