Ted Talk With Gavin Schmidt Climate Change Video Notes

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TED Talk With Gavin Schmidt Climate Change Video Notes

- You can't chop climate into smaller parts


- You can't use the normal products of reductionism to get a smaller and small thing that
he can study in a laboratory and say “Oh that is something that I now understand” (It's
the whole or nothing)

- The different scales that give you these type of patterns range over an enormous range
of magnitude
- Roughly 14 orders of magnitude from the small microscopic particles that seed clouds to
the size of the plant itself from 10 to the minus six to 10 to the eight (14 orders of spatial
magnitude)

- Weather model (Spans about five orders of magnitude from the planet to a few
kilometers)
- And the time scale from a few minutes to 10 days maybe a month

- Climate change models in 1990 (Only about 3 orders of magnitude)


- Climate Change models in 2010 (four orders of magnitude)
- Have 14 to go

- What does a climate model look like:


- Old punch card - (Punch card, a single line of fortran code)

- Swirls in southern ocean, the tropical cyclone in the gulf of Mexico, rivers of atmospheric
water- are Emergent Properties that come from the interactions of all the small scale
processes he mentioned

- Wobbles in earth’s orbit over hundreds and thousands of years, changes in the solar
cycle every 11 years and longer, Big volcanoes go off, changes of biomass burning in
smoke and aerosol particles, ozone hole, deforestation, contrails, greenhouse gases
ALL cause climate change

- Models are always wrong they are approximations


- A model result is skillful if it gives better predictions than a simpler alternative

- If we had observations of the future, we obviously would trust them more than models
but unfortunately observations of the future and not available at this time
Personal Takeaway:

When I watched the video I was really engaged in what he was saying. He made many
important key points that I learnt a lot from. A few key points he made were that climate isn’t
something small, you can’t just learn a small portion of it and say you know what it is. You need
to learn about the whole thing in order to understand it fully. I learnt that climate models aren’t
always right, they are just approximations, but they do help us understand some sort of pattern.
Models are all we really have that can help us predict what the climate may be, of course we
aren’t gonna be right, but approximately we should be close to what we have predicted. Overall,
watching this video made me recognize how many things we do not know about climate change
and how many aspects/things on earth affect it and moreover how we should be aware of what
our climate is in our region.

Why don’t they use Punch Cards anymore?

How can we help prevent Climate change since we can’t fully stop it? How can we lower the
chances?

What will it take for us humans to change our living ways/actions and help prevent things from
affecting our climate?

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