Research Article Handoff and Drop Call Probability: A Case Study of Nigeria's Global System For Mobile Communications (GSM) Sector

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Scholars Journal of Engineering and Technology (SJET) ISSN 2321-435X (Online)

Sch. J. Eng. Tech., 2015; 3(2A):166-169 ISSN 2347-9523 (Print)


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Research Article
Handoff and Drop Call Probability: A Case Study of Nigeria's Global System for
Mobile Communications (GSM) Sector
Rex Ndubuisi Ali
Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania

*Corresponding author
Rex Ndubuisi Ali

Abstract: This paper investigates the quality of service of GSM networks in Nigeria using the call drop rate and the call
handover success rate as the key performance indicators. In the analysis, we have utilized the Erlang B probability
formula, which highlights the service quality at any given moment on the number of channels available at that time. The
parameters of the four main GSM services in Nigeria were analyzed with the help of data obtained from the Nigerian
Communications Commission. The results show that the operators are not performing well with regard to these metrics;
therefore, ways to increase not just the performance of the metrics but also the performance of the whole network are
suggested. The analysis shows that GSM services in Nigeria are currently unreliable. Cell splitting, sectoring, and
efficient resource management are highlighted as the possible means of maximizing the networks' quality of service
when implemented. This implementation would lead to soft handover in the network; thus, creating a more robust
telecommunication system.
Keywords: handover/hand-off, drop call rate, efficient resource management, sectoring, cell splitting.

INTRODUCTION GSM networks is affected. In order to enforce better


Telephone handsets enable us to communicate in real service quality, the Nigerian Communication
time with persons who are far away from us. When one Commission (NCC), the country's highest GSM
makes a call using a handset, it is routed from a Base regulator, set a benchmark for the key performance
Station (BS) through another BS until the call is indicators (KPIs). The KPIs are metrics for measuring
received by another person. This continuation of an the quality of service of the GSM networks. Some of
active call is a major quality of the service parameter in the KPIs are the call setup success rate (CSSR), call
telecommunication. Any time someone loses a drop rate (CDR), call handover success rate (CHSR),
connection to a BS, the call is dropped. Therefore, if call completion ratio (CCR), and call setup time among
either the caller or the called person is moving, there is others.
a need for his Mobile Station (MS) to remain connected
to a BS in order to maintain the communication. Two of these KPIs, the call drop rate - the rate
However, each BS has a defined area of coverage, so if of calls not completed successfully - and the call
either of them moves out of the coverage region of his handover success rate - the rate of successful handovers
or her BS, the call is handed over to another BS. This - are the worst performing metrics in Nigeria.
process is referred to as handoff (or handover). Furthermore, two kinds of handoff occur in GSM
networks: the soft handoff and the hard hand off. When
Handoff poses serious challenges to the the communication channel is first released before a
Nigerian telecommunications sector. The number of new channel is acquired by the MS, the on-going call is
global system for mobile communication (GSM) lost, and hard handoff is said to occur. This handoff
subscribers in Nigeria has continued to grow since its usually occurs when the BSs are located far apart or
launch in the country in 2001. The number of subscriber occupied (no available channel in the BS). The time lag
grew from 1.57 million in 2002 to 18.56 million in causes the loss of on-going calls and/or the blocking of
2005, then to 81.08 million in 2010 [1]. According to incoming calls. Call losses due to handoff are rampant
the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the and harm the Nigeria telecommunication sector.
current number of active GSM subscribers in Nigeria is Research by [3] on the quality of GSM KPIs in Nigeria
132 million [2]. However, the service qualities provided confirmed that the call drop rate is among the worst
by the GSM operators in Nigeria have remained performing metric in the country. They conducted their
abysmal. Basically, every subscriber to the country's research by distributing questionnaires to the six
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Ali RN., Sch. J. Eng. Tech., 2015; 3(2A):166-169

regions of Nigeria. Moreover, [4] in their drive time test In addition, we analyzed the latest drop call
in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, substantiates the and handoff data obtained from the NCC, and explored
claim of [3]. According to [4], most of the operators are ways to improve the overall service quality of the
yet to meet the NCC target for the two critical KPIs, - system. We further compared the service quality of
the CSSR and the CHSR. The CSSR of Glo is the best various GSM operators in Nigeria with respect to the
among the operators [3], but its CSSR is still below the investigated KPIs.
NCC threshold [4]. These papers observe that the high
value of CSSR indicates that the GSM networks - PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
which are considered in the study - are highly The Erlang B formula for loss probability is
congested. In fact, the QoS issues will persist according used to estimate the relationship between call losses and
to [4] because teledensity is forecast to grow. the number of available channels [7], [8]. This
relationship (the Erlang B formula) is given in the
Therefore, this research will focus on ways to equation (1) below:
enhance the CDR and CHSR in Nigeria GSM services.
We will analyze the latest call drop and handoff data
obtained from the NCC, and explore possible ways to
improve the overall service quality of the system. Soft
handoffs rarely result in call loss because the connected
BSs smoothly switch the call to the new channel before
the connection to the source BS is broken. Hence, this Where B = Loss probability, A = offered traffic
research will also seek to discover a robust method to intensity in Erlang, and N = available number of
achieve soft handover in our telecommunication channels. Equation (1) signifies that an increase in the
systems. number of channels leads to a decrease in drop call
probability.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Dropped calls, especially during handover, are Furthermore, the drop call probability is given as [7],
common in GSM services in Nigeria and in many other [9]:
developing countries. Call drops and handover losses
are generally due to inadequate radio resources. To
maximize the coverage areas of BSs such that handover
and drop call probabilities are reduced to a minimum,
the implementation of cell splitting, sectoring, and (2)
efficient handover management is required.
Where Vd is the drop call rate, t is the call duration, Y is
Cell splitting, sectoring, and efficient resource a random variable that counts the number of drops, and
management, if properly implemented, could help to n is the confirmed call dropped. This is a Poisson
reduce premature call losses due to handover. To Probability function with a discrete variable, which
achieve this reduction, the coverage area of each cell is counts the number of dropped calls [7].
first redesigned (split) to accommodate micro-cells and
pico-cells. Ironically, cell splitting increases the rate of Moreover, the number of dropped calls is
handoff. However, since the coverage areas of the calculated from the relation [7]:
various cells now overlap, the resulting handoff is
usually a smooth one and does not lead to the loss of an 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
Drop call rate= (3)
on-going call(s). Sectoring entails that the omni- 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑠
directional antennas, which are installed by various
operators, be replaced with several sector antennas. The application of the above formula
Sectoring uses directional antennas to further control (equations 1, 2, and 3) in probability analysis as carried
the interference and frequency reuse of channels [5]. out in various literature [7], [8], [9] shows that drop call
Sector antennas produce beams of stronger intensity probability decreases with an increasing number of
than omni-directional antennas; hence, sectoring greatly channels; thus supporting the fact that cell splitting and
improves network coverage. Moreover, a certain sectoring will greatly improve handoff in GSM.
number of channels should always be reserved to
manage handover [6]. An in-depth analysis of how cell RESULTS
splitting, sectoring, and efficient handoff management The bar graph in Figure 1 shows the DCR of the
increases radio resources was presented. We also major GSM operators in Nigeria. The two operators that
proved by using the Erlang B probability formula, that overshoot the benchmark in Figure 1 constitute over
the number of call losses decreases with an increase in 64.5% of the subscribers as can be seen in Table 1. The
radio resources. total DCR for the four telecommunication operators is
3.79%; thus, almost 4 out of every 100 calls made in

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Ali RN., Sch. J. Eng. Tech., 2015; 3(2A):166-169

Nigeria are likely to be prematurely terminated. The doubled this rate between the last quarter of 2013 and
only two operators that met the target set by NCC, the first quarter of 2014. This growth might be
Airtel and Etisalat (EMTS limited), have the lowest attributed to their fast but cheap data plans. However,
number of subscribers. The operators in red ink in the MTN, which has the highest DCR of 1.21 as illustrated
summary table (Table 1) are no longer active; therefore, in Figure 1, lost a good number of its potential
they are not included in the total calculations. customers between the last quarter of 2013 and the first
quarter of 2014, perhaps because of the implementation
Despite its high DCR, Table 1 indicates that of the Mobile Number Portability in Nigeria. Most of its
Globacom limited has continued to attract more disaffected customers that were afraid of losing their
subscribers; it grew by 3.56% between the second business phone numbers should they stop using their
quarter and the third quarter of 2013, and it more than MTN SIM card, now port to other competing networks.

Table 1: Summary of GSM subscribers in Nigeria [10]

Figure 1: Nigeria Telecoms Drop Call Rate (January, 2014) [11]

DISCUSSION given time on the number of the available channels at


In this paper, we discussed how cell splitting, that time.
sectoring, and efficient resource management could
help in the reduction of call losses due to handoff. The data presented in the result section clearly
Moreover, we analyzed the call drop and handoff data indicates that the service quality (with respect to
of GSM subscribers in Nigeria, and then we illustrated dropped calls) of GSM operators in Nigeria is
with the Erlang B formula the necessity of CDR at a inadequate. In other words, the telecoms are far from
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Ali RN., Sch. J. Eng. Tech., 2015; 3(2A):166-169

providing a reliable service in Nigeria; thus, further tent&view=article&id=125:art- statistics-


enhancement is urgently needed. Four percent of all the subscriber-data&catid=65:cat-web-
calls across the country's GSM networks get statistics&Itemid=73
prematurely lost. This translates to hundreds of 3. Popoola JJ, Megbowon O, Adeloye VSA;
thousands of call losses on daily basis, bearing in mind Performance Evaluation and Improvement on
that over one hundred million active GSM lines exist in Quality of Service of Global System for Mobile
the country. Communications in Nigeria. JITI 2009; 9(2):91-
106.
It can be concluded that the service quality of 4. Nochiri IU, Osuagwu CC, Okafor KC; Empirical
current GSM networks in Nigeria is inadequate and Analysis on the GSM Network KPIs Using Real-
unreliable. Much needs to be done to ensure that Time Methodology for a Novel Network
Nigerians enjoy better GSM service. NCC should Integration. PISER,2014;. 2(3/6):
regularly inspect these GSM networks and ensure that 5. Ohaneme CO, Onoh GN, Ifeagwu EN, Eneh II;
the operators comply with the standards. The operators Improving Channel Capacity of a Cellular System
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always be implemented in order to surmount this GPRS/GSM network. Networking Laboratory,
obstacle. When these recommendations are HUT, Otakaari, Finland.
implemented, the GSM network accessibility in the 7. Tarkaa NS, Mom JM, Ani CI; Drop Call
country will improve, and the highly congested Probability Factors in Cellular Networks. IJSER,
networks that callers currently experience will be 2011; 2(10):
minimized; thus, increasing the QoS and the overall 8. Boggia G, Camarda P, D’Alconzo A; Modeling of
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT Communications and Networking, 2007.
I would like to thank my teacher, Cheryl 9. Boggia G, Camarda P, D’Alconzo A, De Biasi A,
Wecksler for introducing me into the world of research Siviero M; Drop Call Probability in Established
writing. She also painstakingly reviewed the paper and I Cellular Networks: from Data Analysis to
am indebted. I also want to thank my friends - Obinna Modelling, IEEE Vehicular Technology
Nnamani and Elijah Agbo for their help in reviewing Conference (VTC), 2005; 5.
part of this work. 10. Nigerian Communications Commission, Abuja,
Nigeria. Assessed on: Nov. 20, 2014. Available
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