Research Article Handoff and Drop Call Probability: A Case Study of Nigeria's Global System For Mobile Communications (GSM) Sector
Research Article Handoff and Drop Call Probability: A Case Study of Nigeria's Global System For Mobile Communications (GSM) Sector
Research Article Handoff and Drop Call Probability: A Case Study of Nigeria's Global System For Mobile Communications (GSM) Sector
Research Article
Handoff and Drop Call Probability: A Case Study of Nigeria's Global System for
Mobile Communications (GSM) Sector
Rex Ndubuisi Ali
Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania
*Corresponding author
Rex Ndubuisi Ali
Abstract: This paper investigates the quality of service of GSM networks in Nigeria using the call drop rate and the call
handover success rate as the key performance indicators. In the analysis, we have utilized the Erlang B probability
formula, which highlights the service quality at any given moment on the number of channels available at that time. The
parameters of the four main GSM services in Nigeria were analyzed with the help of data obtained from the Nigerian
Communications Commission. The results show that the operators are not performing well with regard to these metrics;
therefore, ways to increase not just the performance of the metrics but also the performance of the whole network are
suggested. The analysis shows that GSM services in Nigeria are currently unreliable. Cell splitting, sectoring, and
efficient resource management are highlighted as the possible means of maximizing the networks' quality of service
when implemented. This implementation would lead to soft handover in the network; thus, creating a more robust
telecommunication system.
Keywords: handover/hand-off, drop call rate, efficient resource management, sectoring, cell splitting.
regions of Nigeria. Moreover, [4] in their drive time test In addition, we analyzed the latest drop call
in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, substantiates the and handoff data obtained from the NCC, and explored
claim of [3]. According to [4], most of the operators are ways to improve the overall service quality of the
yet to meet the NCC target for the two critical KPIs, - system. We further compared the service quality of
the CSSR and the CHSR. The CSSR of Glo is the best various GSM operators in Nigeria with respect to the
among the operators [3], but its CSSR is still below the investigated KPIs.
NCC threshold [4]. These papers observe that the high
value of CSSR indicates that the GSM networks - PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
which are considered in the study - are highly The Erlang B formula for loss probability is
congested. In fact, the QoS issues will persist according used to estimate the relationship between call losses and
to [4] because teledensity is forecast to grow. the number of available channels [7], [8]. This
relationship (the Erlang B formula) is given in the
Therefore, this research will focus on ways to equation (1) below:
enhance the CDR and CHSR in Nigeria GSM services.
We will analyze the latest call drop and handoff data
obtained from the NCC, and explore possible ways to
improve the overall service quality of the system. Soft
handoffs rarely result in call loss because the connected
BSs smoothly switch the call to the new channel before
the connection to the source BS is broken. Hence, this Where B = Loss probability, A = offered traffic
research will also seek to discover a robust method to intensity in Erlang, and N = available number of
achieve soft handover in our telecommunication channels. Equation (1) signifies that an increase in the
systems. number of channels leads to a decrease in drop call
probability.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Dropped calls, especially during handover, are Furthermore, the drop call probability is given as [7],
common in GSM services in Nigeria and in many other [9]:
developing countries. Call drops and handover losses
are generally due to inadequate radio resources. To
maximize the coverage areas of BSs such that handover
and drop call probabilities are reduced to a minimum,
the implementation of cell splitting, sectoring, and (2)
efficient handover management is required.
Where Vd is the drop call rate, t is the call duration, Y is
Cell splitting, sectoring, and efficient resource a random variable that counts the number of drops, and
management, if properly implemented, could help to n is the confirmed call dropped. This is a Poisson
reduce premature call losses due to handover. To Probability function with a discrete variable, which
achieve this reduction, the coverage area of each cell is counts the number of dropped calls [7].
first redesigned (split) to accommodate micro-cells and
pico-cells. Ironically, cell splitting increases the rate of Moreover, the number of dropped calls is
handoff. However, since the coverage areas of the calculated from the relation [7]:
various cells now overlap, the resulting handoff is
usually a smooth one and does not lead to the loss of an 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
Drop call rate= (3)
on-going call(s). Sectoring entails that the omni- 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑠
directional antennas, which are installed by various
operators, be replaced with several sector antennas. The application of the above formula
Sectoring uses directional antennas to further control (equations 1, 2, and 3) in probability analysis as carried
the interference and frequency reuse of channels [5]. out in various literature [7], [8], [9] shows that drop call
Sector antennas produce beams of stronger intensity probability decreases with an increasing number of
than omni-directional antennas; hence, sectoring greatly channels; thus supporting the fact that cell splitting and
improves network coverage. Moreover, a certain sectoring will greatly improve handoff in GSM.
number of channels should always be reserved to
manage handover [6]. An in-depth analysis of how cell RESULTS
splitting, sectoring, and efficient handoff management The bar graph in Figure 1 shows the DCR of the
increases radio resources was presented. We also major GSM operators in Nigeria. The two operators that
proved by using the Erlang B probability formula, that overshoot the benchmark in Figure 1 constitute over
the number of call losses decreases with an increase in 64.5% of the subscribers as can be seen in Table 1. The
radio resources. total DCR for the four telecommunication operators is
3.79%; thus, almost 4 out of every 100 calls made in
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Ali RN., Sch. J. Eng. Tech., 2015; 3(2A):166-169
Nigeria are likely to be prematurely terminated. The doubled this rate between the last quarter of 2013 and
only two operators that met the target set by NCC, the first quarter of 2014. This growth might be
Airtel and Etisalat (EMTS limited), have the lowest attributed to their fast but cheap data plans. However,
number of subscribers. The operators in red ink in the MTN, which has the highest DCR of 1.21 as illustrated
summary table (Table 1) are no longer active; therefore, in Figure 1, lost a good number of its potential
they are not included in the total calculations. customers between the last quarter of 2013 and the first
quarter of 2014, perhaps because of the implementation
Despite its high DCR, Table 1 indicates that of the Mobile Number Portability in Nigeria. Most of its
Globacom limited has continued to attract more disaffected customers that were afraid of losing their
subscribers; it grew by 3.56% between the second business phone numbers should they stop using their
quarter and the third quarter of 2013, and it more than MTN SIM card, now port to other competing networks.
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