Ijmra 12858 PDF
Ijmra 12858 PDF
Ijmra 12858 PDF
ABSTRACT
*
(Ph.D. Research Scholar) School of Studies in Economics, Jiwaji University, Gwalior, M.P.,
India.
456 I n t e rn a ti o n a l Jo u rn a l o f R e s ea r c h i n S o c ia l S c i en c e s
http://www.ijmra.us, Email: editorijmie@gmail.com
ISSN: 2249-2496 Impact Factor: 7.081
INTRODUCTION
Demonetization is the act of stripping a currency unit of its status as legal tender. It
occurs whenever there is a change of national currency: The current form or forms of money is
pulled from circulation and retired, often to be replaced with new notes or coins. Sometimes, a
country completely replaces the old currency with new currency. The government of India has
implemented a major change in the economic environment by demonetizing the high value
currency notes – of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denomination. These ceased to be legal tender from the
midnight of 8th of November 2016. People have been given upto December 30, 2016 to
exchange the notes held by them. The application by the government involves the eradication of
these existing notes from circulation and a plodding replacement with a set of new notes. In the
short term, it is proposed that the cash in circulation would be considerably squeezed since there
are the limits placed on the amount that individuals can withdraw. The main reasons offered
behind the demonetization are two-fold: Firstly, to control the fake notes that could be
contributing to terrorism/a national security concern and secondly, to destabilize or eradicate the
―unaccounted economy‖. Demonetization for us means that Reserve Bank of India has
withdrawn the old currency of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes as an official mode of payment.
According to Investopedia, demonetization is the act of stripping a currency unit of its status as
legal tender .The policy of demonetization is being seen as a financial reformation of the
country.
BREAKS DOWN THE DEMONETIZATION
There are several reasons why nations demonetize their local units of currency:
To fight against the inflation
To fight the corruption and crime (Fake currency, Tax evasion)
To depress a cash-dependent economy
To assist the trade
To promote a Cashless economy
To eradicate the unaccounted money
Crackdown on Terrorism and Naxalism
DEMONETIZATION OF CURRENCY
Demonetization of currency means discontinuity of the particular currency from circulation and
replacing it with a new currency. In the current framework it is the exclusion of the 500 and 1000
denomination currency notes as a legal tender. The government stated that the objectives behind
the demonetization policy. These are as follows:
1. First, it is an effort to make India corruption free.
2. Second it is done to stop the unaccounted money.
3. Third to control the growing price rises.
4. Fourth to curb the funds to illegal activities.
5. Fifth to make the people accountable for every rupee they have and pay income tax
return.
6. Finally, it is an endeavor to compose a cashless society and make a Digital India.
BACKGROUND FOR THE CURRENT DECISION OF DEMONETIZATION IN INDIA
There is a background to the current decision of demonetization of 500 and 1000 rupee
notes. The government has taken a gallant steps in this direction much before its November 8,
2016 announcement.
1. Firstly, the government had urged the people to create the bank accounts under Jan Dhan
Yojana. They were asked to deposit all the money in their Jan Dhan accounts and do their
future transaction through banking methods only.
2. Secondly, the government had initiated a tax declaration of the income and had given a
deadline for this purpose upto 30 October, 2016. With the help of this method, the
government was able to mop up a huge amount of undeclared income.
3. Besides, there were many who still hoarded the unaccounted money, and in order to tackle
them; the government had decided the policy of current decision for thedemonetizationof
Rs500 and 1000 currency notes.
HISTORY OF DEMONETIZATION IN INDIA
It is not for the first time in the Indian history, that the government has taken a gallant
step. It has been occurred twice in the history. The first currency ban was announced as on 12th
January, 1946(Saturday) by RBI headquarter. At that time currency notes of 1000 and 10,000
were totally detached from the economy. Both these notes were re-introduced in the year 1954.
For that time people had given a time period of 10 days to replace these notes. Further that was
extended to 15 days more where by people has to give reasons why they had not exchanged it in
previous 10days. It had not twisted much effect for that time. At the end of 1947 out of
Rs.143.97 crores, notes of only Rs. 134.9 crores were exchanged. Thus notes worth Rs. 9.07
were conceivably ―Demonetized‖.
Secondly the currency ban was made on 16th January, 1978 (Monday), announced by R.
Janaki Raman a senior official of RBI, and at the time of Moraji Desai led Janata party. At that
time currency ban was taken 1000, 5000 and 10,000 out of circulation. For that time the people
had given only 3 days to replace the notes. This time nearly about 73.1 crore was demonetized.
Finally the freshest demonetization had been announced as on 8th November, 2016
(Tuesday) by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This time the currency of 500 and 1000 notes are
demonetized from economy. The Government had given a complete set of instructions to the
hospitals, petrol pumps, airports etc to accept the old denomination notes till 11th November,
2016.
On 28 October 2016 the total banknotes in circulation in India was Rs.17.77 trillion
(US$260 billion). In terms of value, the annual report of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of 31
March 2016 stated that total bank notes in circulation valued to Rs.16.42 trillion (US$240
billion) of which nearly 86% (around Rs.14.18 trillion (US$210 billion)) were Rs.500 and
Rs.1,000 banknotes. They were taken out of circulation from 2016.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
The literature reviews of the present study regarding the impact of demonetization in
India are as under the following headings.
Vijay and Shiva (2016) examined demonetization and its complete financial inclusion. They felt
that the rewards of demonetization are much encouraging and the demonetization is in the long-
term interest of the country. They expressed that it had given temporary pain but it taught
financial lessons. It influenced banking industries to do considerably investment on digitalization
of banking services.
Nithin and Sharmila (2016) studied demonetization and its impact on Indian Economy. They
opined that demonetization has short term negative impact on different sectors of the economy
and such impacts are solved when the new currency notes are widely circulated in the economy.
They also argued that the government should clear all the problems created due to
demonetization and help the economy to work smoothly.
Lokesh Uke (2017) researched on demonetization and its effects in India. He studied positive
and negative impact of demonization in India. The study was based on secondary data available
in newspaper, magazines etc. The main purpose of demonetization is to eradicate the black
money and diminish the corruption. He expressed that Government of India has become success
to some extent. Demonetization had negative impact for a short duration on Indian financial
markets. But he said that the real impact will be shown in future.
Books, Articles, Reports, Journals, Magazines, News Papers and Government websites.
Recently a bold decision taken by our Honorable Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi by
announcing the demonetization of currency notes of Rs 500 & Rs 1000 had definitely affected
the people holding black money. Some people are against this and some are looking forward
with hope that something good will happen to our country and to common man's life.
As expected, the poorest people and the economically weaker sections of society yet again
emerged as the main sufferers. It will take at least 6 to 9 months to replace and re-print almost 15
lakh crore rupees worth of currency notes.
Almost all the trade in vegetables and fruits was in cash and now the farmers are facing
problems. The prices of their produce have fallen and they are likely to face losses
Notably, this is a time of kharif harvest and start of rabi sowing, partly explaining why
this period is dubbed the ‘busy season’ from a standpoint of credit demand, the other
being bunching of festivals and weddings.
Agriculture is impacted through the input-output channels as well as price and output
feedback effects. Sale, transport, marketing and distribution of ready produce to
wholesale centres or mandi‘s are dominantly cash-dependent. Disruptions, breaks in
the supply chains feedback to farmers as sales fall, increased wastage of perishables,
lower revenues that show up as trade dues instead of cash in hand and when credited
into bank accounts with limited access affect the sector.
JOB MARKET: Industry is staring at temporary job losses due to demonetization, as
production gets hit, especially in labour-intensive sectors like textiles, garments, leather and
jewellery. The informal sector in India employs more than a majority of the workers and most
transactions are in cash. Disruption to this system could endanger the employment and livelihood
of weaker sections of society.
As many as 4 lakh people, mostly daily wagers, may have either lost their jobs or
shunned work temporarily due to the lack of payment so far, and the number is only going to
grow if the cash crunch persists
Besides some of the common problems which are created by the demonetization.
1. The worst hits are those who are not on plastic money and have to take care of urgent
medical expenditure.
2. Traders, taxi operators and the tourism sector have been hits badly. Horticulturists from
Himachal and Kashmir were suffering as their produce was not been sold in fruit and
vegetable markets. Textile industry,
3. The people having marriages in their families have been allowed cash withdrawal of Rs
2.5 lakh. Even for that amount a lot of riders have been added. Many of them are not
getting 2.5 lakhs due to the scarcity of currency.
4. Pensioners are going through a harrowing time and long ques and have taken many lives
already. Even senior citizens whose pension is directly linked to bank accounts are facing
a lot of problems.
5. Private hospitals and chemists are neither accepting old notes nor extending credit. The
Rs 4,000 limit that has been imposed on withdrawals from banks mean it is a hand-to-
mouth existence for many who are already in trouble.
6. Manual laborers and daily wage workers are unemployed as their employer lacks money
to pay them in cash (online is not sufficient).
8. The people in rural areas and the farmers are also facing a great deal of hardship. Many
of them do not have bank accounts or own a debit/credit card. The concept of internet
banking is far removed for them. These people may be induced to rise in revolt. Already
the case of looting of a fair price shop by the public in Madhya Pradesh has been
reported.
9. Deep Deflation, The amount of money in circulation will drop dramatically while supply
of goods will remain stable - hence prices of goods will drop. Gold prices, stock prices,
commodity prices will drop down.
10. The public is inconvenienced because they don‘t have the cash with which to buy daily
necessities of life like food, clothes and shelter.
11. Foreign tourists who have withdrawn money after landing in India are among the worst
hit. Instead of enjoying the sights and sounds of India, they are scampering around in an
alien land, trying to secure legal currency. Incredible India indeed. The negative feedback
to the tourist industry which will affect its reputation.
12. With less potential buyers in the market and fewer people having white money, the
demand for the land goes down and drives down its price. (As people get black money in
the future, they will be afraid of holding on to cash and would want to convert that right
away into other assets, such as land and gold. This increased demand for land holding, as
a form of store of value, might drive property prices higher in the future.)
13. The trader class is affected given that most wholesale shopkeepers choose to keep liquid
cash to buy material every day. Very few of them deposit money in a bank. Many of
them have incurred losses because of the liquidity drying up in the market.
14. More than a quarter of a billion people in India do not have access to the formal banking
sector, which means that a cashless society would be truly perilous.
There are some challenges which are faced by the Common Man due to Demonetization.
These are as follows:
1. Lack of Money in ATMs: Many people depend on ATM service as it's easy to withdraw
money and it also saves a lot of time and hassle. Due to demonetization, there are long
queues and inspite of people patiently waiting for hours; they are unable to get cash. Also
many don't have the time to go stand in queues due to several issues like old age or bad
health etc.
2. Currency Change not Available: Many people who are getting Rs 2000 note from banks or
ATM are not able to get the change as none of the shopkeeper is ready to give change of Rs
1800 on purchase of Rs 200 so change is a big worry now a days to common person.
3. Usage of E Wallets: Usage of E Wallets is one of the best solutions but challenge is that
many people who are of old generation don't use smart phone and if they use then also big
ratio among them is of people who don't feel secure on transferring the money through E
Wallets.
4. Banks unable to feed their Customers: You can still find long queues of people waiting
outside banks for their number and some of the times it happens that after long hours of
waiting they come to know that cash is finished and now they have to come again after some
hours or need to be in queues tomorrow again. It all shows that banks are not prepared
enough to feed their customers.
5. Old and poor people losing lives: It's been in several news channels that some of the people
who are not well or are very weak have lost their lives due to standing in queues for long
hours. But the problem is that nobody is ready to take responsibility of such activities.
Besides Old people, disabled people, pregnant women, family bread winners;
basically common man is standing in ques for hours together while corrupt black money
holders are getting new notes for nothing. People are dying after standing in ques for hours.
Even after standing, only one 2000 rupee note is being given or ―out of stock‖ board is
shown.
Contribution in GDP
Primary Sector
Tertiary Sector 17 %
53 %
Secondary
Sector
30 %
frustrating the dilemma of these farmers. There are reports of price of vegetables dropping by
almost 60 per cent across wholesale markets. The CPI inflation of vegetables has recorded a
steep decline of 10 % as per the latest estimates. The cash crisis has reportedly affected onion
trade, poultry sector and there are also reports of large scale distress sales by orange farmers in
Vidarbha region of Maharashtra. Therefore, demonetization is unlikely to affect the agricultural
growth but it is likely to hit the farmers inadequately, unless the public procurement of pulses
improves and distress sales of perishables are addressed. The prices of non-horticultural crops in
India have so far held steady although for the impact of demonetization.
Fertilizers: Fertilizer manufacturers such as IFFCO, Zuari Agro, and National Fertilizer
indicated that fertilizer sales, which suffered in the first 10 days following the demonetization of
high value notes, have since revived. They mentioned that they have extended a month of
additional credit to wholesalers, dealers, and retailers, who in turn are passing on this facility to
the farmers.
Agricultural growth in India contracted 0.2% in 2014-15 and grew no more than 1.2% in
2015-16, largely because of back-to-back droughts. It was expected to grow at 4% in this year as
per CRISIL Report, but due to Demonetization this forecast is proven wrong because Farmers
are running out of Cash to buy Seeds, Fertilizer, Equipments, and Wages payment to workers
and Commission to Agents etc. Because of Cash shortage daily supply transport system has also
suffered which was result in 25 to 50 % reduction in sales. Following are the main reasons are as
follows:
1. Farmers are not educated and aware about how to work on E-Payment System, Recent
study by RBI Says 78% of the population do not use internet in which almost 80 to 85 %
are Farmers.
2. In most of the Villages Proper Banking system is not Developed yet and Villagers are
need to go to the cities for the same because of that Farmer‗s most of the time is engaged
in exchanging the old notes in Banks.
1. Textile industry:-Most of the Brands and Retailers Report 40 to 60 % drop in sales after
Demonetization in first few weeks but from December onwards this drop is slightly
decrease, but still we can say the impact of this decision has affect the industry in 2017
also for few months.
2. Real Estate: - Demonetization destroyed the real estate market and it will result in 50%
drop down and it will remain for further few months. While the short-term impact is
negative, Experts hoping that rate cuts in the coming months would boost home sales.
3. FMCG Products: - Consumer expenditures also affected by that decision now only
those products are purchased which was necessary for daily consumption and mostly the
small traders like kirayana store, small bodies like street vendors etc. they all have done
their daily transactions only in terms of cash and because consumer has less cash in his
pockets the daily sells of these traders smashed down by 20 to 30 %. It is also a short
term impact in future things get normal.
Impact of Demonetization on Tertiary Sector
This sector hits very badly by the Demonetization decision in November 2016 worst
Slump in nearly three year is noted. The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index
(PMI), which tracks services sector companies on a monthly basis, stood at 46.7 in November,
down from 54.5 in October. The catalog slipped into the contraction of territory for the first time
since June 2015 and pointed to the sharpest diminution in output for almost three years. On other
hand if we are talking about the Banking Sector, this is the only sector which was benefited by
that decision in many aspects; this move will pull a large portion of first time users to banks,
which will have to use the system at least once to exchange their old notes for new ones.
According to the study conducted by Moody's, people tend to continue using banking services
once they have crossed the 'first-time user' mark. This development will increase bank deposits
by 1 to 2 percent compared to what they were before the demonetization scheme.
EFFECTS OF DEMONETISATION
Demonetization affects the economy through the liquidity side mostly. The Indian Economy
which was billed as the ―fastest growing major economy‖ in the world and the ―only bright spot‖
among Emerging Markets seems to have slowed down even before the latest ―shocking therapy‖
of ―demonetization‖. The following are the effects of demonetization are as under:
Cashless society means, eradication of mediators to some extent. So both producers and
consumers will get fair price.
Start-ups like paytm, free charge will boom. This will have a ripple effect in the form of
incentives for new start ups to spring up.
Cashless means more transparency. More transparency means more investor confidence
in the economy. So, it will be an incentive for foreign investors. So higher GDP growth.
5. A good legacy for the present government. PM Modi and his government will forever
be remembered for demonetization. Just like P V Narasimharao and MMS for LPG
reforms.
6. A shock to the criminals who were so far counterfeiting the higher denomination
Currency. They now have to find new ways to do the same.
7. A shock to people holding unaccounted money. Now they have to pay taxes for such
money to make it white and also face legal repercussions in some cases.
8. Joyal public mood-People are happy to witness such dramatic changes and happy to be a
part of such a cleanup process.
9. With the help of demonetization process, there should be the cleansing of Real estate
sector.
1. Arun Jaitley (Current Finance Minister of India; Senior Advocate, Delhi High Court)
According to Indian Express Mr. Arun Jaitley gives his opinion that the demonetization is
good for economy, Indian banks were facing NPA problem since last many years, now
banks will have more money to lend for many sectors of the economy.
2. Amartya Sen (Leading economist; Noble Laureate; recipient of the Bharat
Ratna)According to Indian express, Professor Amartya Sen said that millions of innocent
people have deprived from their money and being suffered to get their own money back.
3. Dr. Manmohan Singh (Former Prime Minister; eminent economist; former RBI
governor) According to Indian express, the former prime minister, RBI governor, and
economist Dr. Manmohan Singh said in Rajya Sabha that this demonetization is
organized loot. In his speech he said that, the way the scheme has been implemented will
harm the agricultural sector in India, it will also harm the small scale industry and
informal sectors of the economy. He also said that India‘s GDP can falls about 2
percentage point as a result of this note banned policy. Cooperative banks which serves
the rural areas are non functional and has been prevented from cash. Former prime
minister also said that this note banned policy is a monumental mismanagement.
4. Kaushik Basu (Leading economist; Senior Vice- President and Chief Economist at The
World Bank) According to Indian express, Mr. .Kaushik Basu said that government of
India made policy that any person who deposits money beyond the limit of 250000, have
to pay huge penalty. This policy created a new black market, in which large amount of
illicit cash broken in to smaller parts and deposited by the members of team; which is a
legal way of illegal activity. Mr., Basu said this move is hurting innocent people who has
no illegal money but they have built up cash reserve over a long period of time.
5. Arun Shourie (Former economist at the World Bank; recipient of the Padma Bhushan
and Union Minister) According to Indian express, Mr. Arun Shourie said in an interview
with NDTV, that this note banned policy made by present Indian government is not poke
on black money, because the owner of black money converted their money into tangible
and intangible assets. The persons who have huge black money, they never keep money
in cash, they never keep money under the mattress, or in gunny bags. They invested their
black money in properties, jewelries, stock markets or in other assets.
6. Arvind Virmani (Leading economist; Former India‘s representative at IMF; Former
Chief Economic Adviser, GOI) According to Arvind Virmani demonetization is a useful
technique to solve the problem of black money, but he also said that it need the deeper
study to check the effectiveness of demonetization. Immediate effects of demonetization
are negative impact in retail trade in goods and services. Currencies for everyday
transaction have to be replacing soon.
7. Surjit Bhalla (Chairman, Oxus Investments, a Delhi-based economic research/advisory
firm; Former Professor at Delhi School of Economics; Previously worked at the World
Bank) According to Mr. Surjeet Bhalla BJP government take a Courageous step, and the
credit goes to our prime minister Mr. Narendra Modi. If this step would be successful
then it will be biggest reform in India. This policy will silently create the money for the
economy
CONCLUSIONS
Demonetization in India is a great effort taken by the government of India to struggle
with the unaccounted money and corruption. It is a bold decision taken by government of India.
The main reason of demonetization is eliminating the unaccounted money and reduces the
corruption, crime and terrorism. Demonetization is an instrument used by central government to
fight against the corruption and unaccounted money. In the same way, it influenced and brought
changes in all the corner of the economy. Government of India has become success to some
extent. Most of the black money has been crushed. Amount of cash liquidity increased in the
bank day by day. Demonetization process is like a two faces of a currency because one side it
will promote the whole nation and on the other side it's going to make some temporal and long
term problems. The general public of India faced a lot of problems for less consumption of goods
due to the lack of cash liquidity. Several businesses disrupted due the lack of liquidity, business
owners as well as consumer faced so many problems. When government had taken gallant step
about the demonetization in India, government didn‘t know that Indian citizen will have to face
this kind of problem for a long time. But government has given so many remedies to the citizens
of India for time to time.
Finally we may conclude that, Demonetization is a one-time event and will not have
much long term effect and Demonetization is a best device to encounter the Inflation, Black
Money, Corruption and Crime, depress a cash dependent economy and to assist the trade.
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