P4 Discrete Event System Simulation CH 01

DISCRETE EVENT SYSTEM
SIMULATION MK Simulasi Komputer

Teknik Industri UII
3RD EDITION @ 2013
J E R R Y B A N K S, E T. A L .
C H A P T E R 0 1 . I N T R O D U C T I O N T O S I M U L AT I O N
INTRODUCTION
A simulation is the imitation of a real-world process or system over
time.
The behaviour of a system as it evolve over time is studied by
developing a simulation model.
The model takes the form of a set of assumptions concerning the
operation of the system
Once developed and validated, a model can be used to investigate a
wide variety of “what-if” questions about the real system
1. JELASKAN APA YANG DIMAKSUD
DENGAN SIMULASI?
A simulation is related with
1. the imitation
2. real-world process / system
3. over time
4. The behaviour
5. a set of assumptions
6. developed
7. Validated
8. investigate
9. “what-if” questions
THE USED OF SIMULATION
To study of, and experimentation with, the internal interactions of a
complex system
Informational, organizational, and enviromental change can be
simulated, and the effect of these alterations on the model’s behavior
can be observed
The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model may be of
great value toward suggesting improvement in the system under
investigation
By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting outputs,
valuable insight may be obtained into which variables are most
important and how variables are interact
...CONTINUED
Simulation can be used as a pedagogical device to reinforce analytic
solution methodologies
Simulation can be used to experiment with new designs or policies
prior to implementation, so as to prepare for what may happen
Simulation can be used to verivy analytical solutions
By simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements can
be determined
...CONTINUED
Simulation models designed for training allow learning without the cost
and disruption of on-the-job training
Animation shows a system in simulated operation so that the plan can
be visualized
The modern system is so complex that the interactions can be treated
only thourgh simulation
WHEN IS IT NOT APPROPRIATE?
1. The problem can be solved using common sense
 Avg arrival 100/hr. Serving rate 12 hr. Number of server? 100/12=8.33
2. The problem can be solved analytically

3. If it is easier to perform direct experiments
4. The cost exceeds the saving
 Study cost US$20,000, savings might be US$10,000
5. The resources are not available

 Study cost US$20,000, resource available US$10,000
...CONTINUED
6. The time are not available
7. If data is not available
8. If no personel nor time are not avalilable to varify & validate the
model
9. If managers have unreasonable expectations
10. The system is too complex or can’t be defined.
ADVANTAGES
New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information flows,
organizational procedures, and so on can be explored without
disrupting ongoing operations of the real system
New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems, and
so on, can be tested without commiting resources for their acquisition
Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can be tested
fo feasibility
Time can be compressed or expanded allowing for speedup or
slowdown of the phenomena under investigation
...CONTINUED
Insight about the interaction of variables or the importance of
variables on performance of the system
Bottleneck analysis can be performed indicating where processes are
being delayed
“What if?” questions can be answered – particularly for a new system
DISADVANTAGES
Expensive
Extensive time needed
Lack of experienced personnel
Model building requires special training and experience
Results may be difficult to interpret
Time consuming and expensive
Use of simulation when analytical models are available and
preferable, particularly for closed-form models
AREAS OF APPLICATION
Manufacturing, Semiconductor Mfg.
Construction & Project Management
Military
Logistics, Supply Chain, Distribution
Transportation & Traffic
Business Processes
Health Care
CURRENT GENERAL TRENDS
Risk Analysis
 Insurance, options pricing, portfolio analysis
Call Center Analysis

Large Scale Systems
 Internet backbones, wireless networks, supply chains
Automated Materials Handling (AMHS)

 Control system sw - emulator
SYSTEM
A set of inputs which pass through certain processes to produce
outputs
A set of related components which work together toward a given goal
A group of objects joined in regular interactions or interdependence
for the accomplishment of some purpose
Helpful if a system is observable,
measurable, systematic
SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT
“World” in which the system exists
System is affected by elements outside the system – the system
environment
Boundary – “line” between the system & its environment
Decision on boundary is dependent upon simulation purpose
SYSTEM COMPONENTS
Consists of objects called ENTITIES
Entities have a set of properties called ATTRIBUTES that describe them
There exist interactions called ACTIVITIES and or EVENTS that occur
between the entities that cause them to change
The STATE OF A SYSTEM is a snapshot of the system at a given time
i.e. variables necessary to describe system
The model starts in its INITIAL STATE
ACTIVITIES & EVENTS
Cause changes in the attributes of the entities, and, therefore, the
state of the system
Event: instantaneous
Activity: has a length of time
SYSTEM COMPONENT EXAMPLES
System : Banking
Entities : Costumer
Attribute : Checking account balance
Activities : Making deposits
Events : Arrival; Departure
State variable : Number of busy teller; Number of costumer waiting
...CONTINUED
Production
Inventory
Try to identify!
ACTIVITIES & EVENTS
Endogenous: variables affecting the

system which are (can be) manipulated
within the system
Exogenous: variable which affect the
system but cannot be manipulated by
the system because they are outside
the system.
CLASSIFICATIONS OF SYSTEMS
Static (Monte Carlo) vs. Dynamic

Deterministic vs. Stochastic
Continuous vs. Discrete
 D: state vars. change at discrete points in time
 C: state vars. change continuously over time
Simulate
 Stochastic - Dynamic - Discrete or Continuous
MODEL
The representation of an object in some form

other than the form of the object itself, usually for
the purpose of study or experimentation
Why Model???
 1. training or instruction
 2. to aid thought
 3. to aid communication
 4. prediction
 5. experimentation
 6. ** to aid decision making process
CLASSIFICATION OF MODELS
Physical: an actual representation
Schematic: a pictorial representation
Descriptive: a verbal description
Mathematical: components are described mathematically, in the form
of equations
Heuristics: descriptive model based on rules; algorithmic; - computer
based
CHARACTERISTICS OF A GOOD MODEL
Simple to understand
Goal directed
Robust
Easy to control
Complete on important issues
Adaptive and easy to update
Evolutionary
STEPS IN A
SIMULATION STUDY
STEPS IN A SIMULATION STUDY
1. Problem Formulation
a. Statement of the problem
2. Set Objectives & Project Plan

a. Questions to be answered
b. Is simulation appropriate?
c. Methods, alternatives
d. Allocation of resources
 People, cost, time, etc.
STEPS IN A
SIMULATION
STUDY
...CONTINUED
3. Model Conceptualization
a. Requires experience
b. Begin simple and add complexity
c. Capture essence of system
d. Involve the user
4. Data Collection
a. Time consuming, begin early
b. Determine what is to be collected
STEPS IN A
SIMULATION
STUDY
...CONTINUED
5. Model translation
a. Computer form
b. general purpose vs. special purpose lang.
6. Verification
a. Does the program represent model and run properly? Common sense
7. Validated?
a. Compare model to actual system
b. Does model replicate system?
...CONTINUED
8. Experimental Design
a. Determine alternatives to simulate
b. Time, initializations, etc.
9. Production & Analysis

a. Actual runs + Analysis of results
b. Determine performance measures
10. More Runs?

...CONTINUED
11. Documentation & Reporting
a. Program & Progress Documents
b. Thoroughly document program – will likely be used over time
c. Progress reports are important as project continues – history, chronology –
changes, etc.
12. Implementation
TEN REASONS FOR FAILURE (NOTES)
1. Failure to define an achievable goal

2.Incomplete mix of essential skills
 Project leadership
 Modeling
 Programming
 Knowledge of modeled system
3.Inadequate level of user participation

4. Inappropriate level of detail
5.Poor communication
...CONTINUED
6. Using the wrong computer language
7. Obsolete or Nonexistent Documentation
8. Using an unverified model
9. Failure to use modern tools and techniques to manage the
development of a large complex computer program
10. Using Mysterious Results
ANY QUESTIONS? Class will be dismiss
otherwise..

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DISCRETE EVENT SYSTEM

SIMULATION MK Simulasi Komputer

2. The problem can be solved analytically

5. The resources are not available

Call Center Analysis

Automated Materials Handling (AMHS)

Endogenous: variables affecting the

Static (Monte Carlo) vs. Dynamic

The representation of an object in some form

2. Set Objectives & Project Plan

9. Production & Analysis

10. More Runs?

1. Failure to define an achievable goal

3.Inadequate level of user participation

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