Coal Price and

FX market forecasts
March/April 2020

Overview
This bulletin provides a summary of coal price forecasts (hard coking coal, PCI, semi-soft coking coal
and Newcastle benchmark thermal coal) and AUD:USD exchange rate forecasts as at March/April
2020. These have been sourced from various research databases and broker reports (the Contributors),
presented on a 31 December year end basis. Where available, we have included the Contributors’
long-term price forecasts. We have also included the average and median forecasts presented in our
previous bulletin (December 2019/January 2020).

All coal price forecasts, other than long term, are While we recognise there are differing hard coking coal
presented in nominal USD per metric tonne, free on board specifications, we note that the Contributors commonly
terms. The long term prices are in real current (2020) USD don’t differentiate between grades of hard coking coal
per metric tonne, free on board terms. Where applicable, in their forecasts. Accordingly we do not distinguish
we have made the following adjustments to certain coal between grades of hard coking coal in the bulletin.
price forecasts: The names of the Contributors have not been provided,
• Where Contributors have expressed coal price and have been presented as “Contributor [Number]”.
forecasts in real terms over the explicit forecast period, We note that not all Contributors have provided AUD:USD
we have converted into nominal terms using a high rate forecasts or coal price forecasts for each forecast year,
level inflation assumption of 2.5 percent per annum. and not all Contributors have provided forecasts for each
• Where long term coal price forecasts have been coal type.
expressed in nominal terms, we have converted into The forecast data presented in this report represents an
real current (2020) terms using a high level inflation unbiased summary of commodity price and exchange
assumption of 2.5 percent per annum. rate forecasts, based on the views of individual economic
• Where coal prices have been expressed in Australian commentators and broking houses. It is not necessarily
Fiscal Year (1 July to 30 June) terms (FY) we have reflective of either KPMG’s views on coal price or exchange
adjusted the forecast prices to be consistent with rate forecasts, or our preferred approach in determining
calendar year terms (CY), by adding 50 percent of forecast coal prices and forecast exchange rates.
the current FY forecast (1 July to 31 December) and This analysis is provided to you on an information only
50 percent of the prior year’s FY forecast (1 January basis and if you wish to rely on this analysis or any part
to 30 June). thereof you do so entirely at your own risk.
• Where coal prices have been expressed in Japanese This bulletin makes reference to ‘KPMG Analysis’. This
Fiscal Year (1 April to 31 March) terms (JFY) we have indicates only that we have (where specified) undertaken
adjusted the forecast prices to be consistent with CY certain analytical activities on the underlying data to arrive
terms, by adding 75 percent of the current JFY forecast at the information presented.
(1 April to 31 December) and 25 percent of the prior
year’s JFY forecast (1 January to 31 March).
With regards to Newcastle benchmark thermal coal,
we note that some of the Contributors forecast spot
prices while some forecast contract prices. We have not
distinguished between these in the bulletin.

© 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”),
a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

 Hard coking coal price forecasts Low and ultra-low volatile PCI coal price forecasts
The hard coking coal price forecasts are summarised below: The low and ultra-low volatile PCI coal price forecasts are
summarised below:

180.0 130.0

170.0 125.0

160.0 120.0
115.0
150.0
110.0
140.0
USD/t

USD/t
105.0
130.0
100.0
120.0
95.0
110.0 90.0
100.0 85.0
90.0 80.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Range Average Median Range Average Median

Hard coking coal (USD/t Nominal) Low and ultra-low volatile PCI coal (USD/t Nominal)
Year ended Reporting 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 LT Year ended Reporting 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 LT
31 December date (2020) 31 December date (2020)
Contributor 1 23-Apr-20 128.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Contributor 3 15-Apr-20 109.0 112.0 99.0 123.0 126.0 115.0
Contributor 2 23-Apr-20 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 150.0 n/a Contributor 7 6-Apr-20 101.2 99.0 97.9 96.6 102.8 93.2
Contributor 3 15-Apr-20 151.0 165.0 145.0 145.0 148.0 135.0 Contributor 13 27-Mar-20 90.0 95.0 95.0 100.0 106.0 95.0
Contributor 5 8-Apr-20 153.0 153.8 157.6 161.5 165.6 n/a Contributor 14 24-Mar-20 86.0 118.0 115.0 122.0 110.0 98.0
Contributor 7 6-Apr-20 142.5 143.5 141.8 140.0 149.0 135.0 Contributor 15 24-Mar-20 107.0 107.0 104.0 104.0 103.0 88.8
Contributor 8 6-Apr-20 153.5 152.0 150.5 148.0 140.0 142.0 Contributor 16 23-Mar-20 110.0 110.0 100.0 n/a n/a 100.0
Contributor 9 1-Apr-20 150.0 153.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a Contributor 17 18-Mar-20 117.0 120.0 115.0 119.0 n/a 120.0
Contributor 10 1-Apr-20 144.0 141.0 n/a n/a n/a 140.0 Low 86.0 95.0 95.0 96.6 102.8 88.8
Contributor 11 1-Apr-20 136.5 155.0 160.0 160.0 150.0 135.9 High 117.0 120.0 115.0 123.0 126.0 120.0
Contributor 12 1-Apr-20 160.0 150.0 n/a n/a n/a 130.0 Average 102.9 108.7 103.7 110.8 109.6 101.4
Contributor 13 27-Mar-20 145.0 145.0 145.0 150.0 150.0 135.0 Median 107.0 110.0 100.0 111.5 106.0 98.0
Contributor 14 24-Mar-20 139.0 163.0 171.0 163.0 150.0 132.0 Previous bulletin (Dec19/Jan20)
Contributor 15 24-Mar-20 149.0 142.0 136.0 136.0 135.0 119.0 Average 108.9 109.9 103.4 110.8 109.5 102.0
Contributor 16 23-Mar-20 150.0 150.0 150.0 n/a n/a 150.0 Median 110.0 109.0 100.0 111.0 106.0 100.0
Contributor 17 18-Mar-20 166.0 166.0 160.0 160.0 n/a 160.0
Contributor 19 16-Mar-20 95.0 133.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 Source: Thomson Research, the Contributors, KPMG Analysis
n/a: forecast not available
Contributor 20 11-Mar-20 146.3 145.8 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Low 95.0 130.0 136.0 136.0 135.0 119.0
High 166.0 166.0 171.0 163.0 165.6 160.0
Average 142.9 149.3 150.6 151.2 148.8 138.7
Median 146.3 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 135.4
Previous bulletin (Dec19/Jan20)

Average 154.3 153.4 151.6 153.3 150.2 139.7

Median 153.0 153.0 150.0 150.0 149.0 137.5

Source: Thomson Research, the Contributors, KPMG Analysis

n/a: forecast not available

© 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”),
a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

Semi-soft coking coal price forecasts Newcastle benchmark thermal coal price forecasts
The semi-soft coking coal price forecasts are The Newcastle benchmark thermal coal price forecasts are
summarised below: summarised below:

115.0 95.0

110.0 90.0

105.0 85.0

80.0
100.0
75.0
USD/t

USD/t
95.0
70.0
90.0
65.0
85.0
60.0
80.0 55.0

75.0 50.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Range Average Median Range Average Median

Semi-soft coking coal (USD/t Nominal) Newcastle thermal coal (USD/t Nominal)
Year ended Reporting 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 LT Year ended 31 Reporting 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 LT
31 December date (2020) December date (2020)
Contributor 8 6-Apr-20 104.0 103.0 105.5 107.5 104.5 107.0 Contributor 1 23-Apr-20 55.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Contributor 9 1-Apr-20 90.0 92.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a Contributor 2 23-Apr-20 59.0 61.0 70.0 75.0 75.0 n/a
Contributor 10 1-Apr-20 96.0 96.0 n/a n/a n/a 98.0 Contributor 3 15-Apr-20 66.2 72.0 80.0 74.9 76.7 70.0
Contributor 11 1-Apr-20 88.8 101.0 104.0 100.0 100.0 90.6 Contributor 4 9-Apr-20 62.9 67.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Contributor 13 27-Mar-20 79.0 80.0 80.0 85.0 89.0 80.0 Contributor 8 6-Apr-20 66.0 65.0 66.0 67.0 70.0 77.0
Contributor 14 24-Mar-20 78.0 107.0 103.0 111.0 100.0 88.0 Contributor 10 1-Apr-20 68.0 69.0 n/a n/a n/a 67.0
Contributor 15 24-Mar-20 103.0 98.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 82.8 Contributor 11 1-Apr-20 77.7 66.8 62.8 63.5 62.5 56.6
Contributor 16 23-Mar-20 100.0 100.0 90.0 n/a n/a 90.0 Contributor 12 1-Apr-20 71.0 72.0 n/a n/a n/a 75.0
Contributor 17 18-Mar-20 107.0 108.0 104.0 106.0 n/a 105.0 Contributor 13 27-Mar-20 65.0 70.0 75.0 75.0 78.0 70.0
Low 78.0 80.0 80.0 85.0 89.0 80.0 Contributor 14 24-Mar-20 65.0 68.0 71.0 66.0 68.0 56.0
High 107.0 108.0 105.5 111.0 104.5 107.0 Contributor 15 24-Mar-20 63.0 68.0 72.0 75.0 75.0 65.5
Average 94.0 98.3 97.4 100.8 97.7 92.7 Contributor 16 23-Mar-20 75.0 85.0 90.0 n/a n/a 90.0
Median 96.0 100.0 103.0 103.0 100.0 90.3 Contributor 17 18-Mar-20 66.0 69.0 75.0 76.0 n/a 75.0
Previous bulletin (Dec19/Jan20) Contributor 19 16-Mar-20 58.0 66.0 70.0 70.0 65.0 65.0

Average 98.9 100.9 97.5 100.8 97.1 93.0 Contributor 20 11-Mar-20 67.8 65.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Median 100.0 104.0 103.0 103.0 97.5 90.3 Low 55.0 61.0 62.8 63.5 62.5 56.0
High 77.7 85.0 90.0 76.0 78.0 90.0
Source: Thomson Research, the Contributors, KPMG Analysis Average 65.7 68.9 73.2 71.4 71.3 69.7
n/a: forecast not available
Median 66.0 68.0 71.5 74.9 72.5 70.0
Previous bulletin (Dec19/Jan20)

Average 70.3 70.7 74.4 72.7 75.1 71.8

Median 70.0 70.0 75.0 75.0 76.7 72.6

Source: Thomson Research, the Contributors, KPMG Analysis

n/a: forecast not available

© 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”),
a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

 Forecast AUD:USD exchange rates
Forecast AUD:USD exchange rates are summarised below:

0.80
0.78
0.76
0.74
0.72
0.70
0.68
AUD:USD

0.66
0.64
0.62
0.60
0.58
0.56
0.54
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Range Average Median

AUD:USD exchange rate (Nominal)

Year ended Reporting 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 LT
31 December date (2020)
Contributor 2 6-Mar-20 0.69 0.72 0.78 0.77 0.77 n/a
Contributor 3 5-Apr-20 0.64 0.68 n/a n/a n/a 0.73
Contributor 4 9-Apr-20 0.59 0.58 0.61 0.64 0.69 n/a
Contributor 5 8-Apr-20 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Contributor 6 7-Apr-20 0.63 0.66 0.71 0.74 0.78 0.81
Contributor 7 6-Apr-20 0.73 0.77 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75
Contributor 8 6-Apr-20 0.61 0.67 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.74
Contributor 10 1-Apr-20 0.63 0.61 n/a n/a n/a 0.74
Contributor 11 1-Apr-20 0.63 0.66 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75
Contributor 12 8-Apr-20 0.66 0.65 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Contributor 13 27-Mar-20 0.62 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.75
Contributor 14 24-Mar-20 0.55 0.63 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.75
Contributor 15 24-Mar-20 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.71
Contributor 16 23-Mar-20 0.67 0.69 0.71 n/a n/a 0.75
Contributor 17 18-Mar-20 0.70 0.72 0.75 0.75 n/a 0.75
Contributor 18 18-Mar-20 0.65 0.65 0.72 0.77 0.77 n/a
Contributor 19 16-Mar-20 0.61 0.66 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69
Contributor 20 30-Mar-20 0.60 0.68 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Low 0.55 0.58 0.61 0.64 0.69 0.69 Contact us
High 0.73 0.77 0.78 0.77 0.78 0.81
Average 0.64 0.67 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 If you require any further information
in relation to this bulletin, please contact:
Median 0.64 0.68 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.75
Previous bulletin (Dec19/Jan20) Bill Allen
Average 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 Partner, Valuation Services,
Median 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.74 0.75 0.75
Deals, Tax & Legal
T: + 61 7 3233 3174
E: billallen@kpmg.com.au
Source: Thomson Research, the Contributors, KPMG Analysis
n/a: forecast not available

KPMG.com.au

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© 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

May 2020. 499986567ENR.