M3 - King Sturge
M3 - King Sturge
M3 - King Sturge
ON
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST XV
AS AT
King Sturge
Rakoczi ut 70
Budapest H-1074
PRESENT BBT INGATLAN FORGALMAZO KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY SEPTEMBER 2007
BUDAPEST
CONTENTS
PAGE
INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................5
5 ACCOMMODATION......................................................................................................................20
6 SERVICES ........................................................................................................................................22
7 CONDITION ....................................................................................................................................22
8 STATUTORY ENQUIRIES............................................................................................................22
9 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS...................................................................................23
10 TAXATION ..................................................................................................................................24
11 TENURE .......................................................................................................................................25
12 TENANCIES.................................................................................................................................26
14 VALUATION................................................................................................................................29
15 S.W.O.T. ANALYSIS...................................................................................................................38
16 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................39
Appendices
1 VALUATION CALCULATIONS
2 LOCATION PLAN
4 VISUALISATIONS
5 COMPETING SCHEMES
6 BASIS OF VALUATION
PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
Description: The property comprises land with a total site area of 155,840 m2
upon which the owner intends to develop a new Out of Town
retail park. The scheme will principally provide a two phases
developments:
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
Phase II:
The value applies for the sale of the subject property via a
quota sale & purchase rather then the acquisition of the asset
itself.
Market Value of Land: € 22,800,000 as at 30TH SEPTEMBER 2007 Euro 147 /m2
(SCENARIO 2)
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
Dear Sirs,
INTRODUCTION
1.0 Instructions
In accordance with your instructions dated 25th September 2007, from Present BBT
Ingatlan forgalmazo Kft, by Motti Peretz – Managing Director, we have inspected and
valued the above property which is owned by Present BBT Ingatlan forgalmazo Kft
(“the Company”) and referred to in the appendices, in order to advise you of our
opinion of the100% interest Market Value of the freehold interest in the currently
developed property. The valuation is of the 30th September 2007.
As referred to in the appendices the valuation has been undertaken without having
seen any structural, soil survey or environmental report and we would draw your
attention to section 1.6 below.
Our valuation advice has been prepared in accordance with the basis of valuation and
valuation assumptions set out below and in accordance with the Appraisal and
Valuation Standards, fifth edition, published by the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors (RICS).
Details of the surveyors inspecting and valuing each property are provided in the
Appendix to this report.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
We understand that this Valuation Report is required for the purpose of the company’s
financial reports, according to the IFRS. King Sturge consents that this valuation
would be attached in its entirety to the publicly published financial reports of Sybil
Europe Public Co. Limited, to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and the Israel Security
Authority.
Please note the basis of valuation adopted may not be appropriate for other purposes,
so the Valuation should not be relied upon for any other purpose without prior
consultation with us.
The value of the property has been assessed in accordance with the relevant parts of
the current Appraisal and Valuation Standards (the “Red Book”) published by the
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). PS 3.2 of the Red Book defines
"Market Value" as "The estimated amount for which a property should exchange on
the date of valuation between a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm’s-length
transaction after proper marketing wherein the parties had each acted knowledgeably,
prudently and without compulsion".
The property is held freehold for Development and as requested by Present BBT
Ingatlan forgalmazo Kft, we have considered Market Value on the following basis:
The property according to our knowledge is with planning and building permits for a
retail development.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
1.6 The Assumptions made for the purposes of our valuations are referred to
below:-
The client has provided us with such information as details of tenancies, use, town
planning consents and the like. We have obtained title documentation form the
Budapest Land Registry and floor plans from Casiopea Group, the schemes
architects. In preparing our valuation we have relied upon such information provided
to us by the client and their advisors and have assumed that the documentation
supplied is correct and that our understanding of the situation is also correct.
We have not affected official searches and for the purposes of this valuation we have
assumed that full planning consent exists. We have assumed that established use
rights are available for the existing building in its present use.
We have not calculated areas and have relied upon areas provided by the owners,
which we assume to have been calculated in accordance with local market practice.
No soil bearing tests have been carried out by us and we cannot offer any opinion
either as to the suitability of the sites for existing or proposed developments nor the
condition of or potential liability for any embankment, river, wharf or retaining wall.
We have not made any assessment of the potential liability for flooding and for the
purposes of this valuation have assumed the properties would not be subject to
flooding.
This engagement letter and the report has been prepared and signed by James
Kinnell BSc, MRICS, MPhil, a Chartered Surveyor with 12 years experience in the
region and qualified to give valuation advice on this type of property and in this
locality. This valuation has been made in accordance with the Valuation and Appraisal
Standards (the Standards) published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
(RICS), subject to the Special Assumptions explained below.
King Sturge Kft. is acting as External Valuers. An External Valuer is defined in the
Standards as “A valuer who, together with any associates, has no material links with
the client, an agent acting on behalf of the client, or the subject of the assignment.”
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
We confirm that King Sturge Kft. have no direct interest in the property or the parties
associated with it. King Sturge confirms that the engagement letter signed between it
and Present BBT Ingatlan forgalmazo Kft is on an arms length basis with a
remuneration based upon a fixed fee without insentivisation. Accordingly, we are able
to provide independent advice.
Our involvement in the property dates back to April 2007 when we were asked by
Sybil Europe Public Co. Limited to provide a valuation report for the purpose of
financial reporting.
Requires the valuation to be based on facts that differ materially from those
that exist at the date of valuation; or
In the case of this report, it is the first of these definitions that is applicable. Further
information on the use of Special Assumptions is available in PS 2.3 and Appendix 2.3
of the Standards. Copies of these can be provided on request.
The valuation provided is based upon the subject site being appropriately
zoned and the subject development being permitted. In order to develop the
site, a specific design, within the constraints of the General Development Plan
has to be submitted. Currently the land does not have these detailed permits
in place as no application has been made. Accordingly, a ‘Special
Assumption’ has been made, to the effect that the land has been issued a
Building Permit, for the specific scheme contained in this report below.
The values outlined in the report are therefore calculated, and dependent upon, these
hypotheses, although are not considered inappropriate for this exercise.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
We have arrived at the Gross Development Value of both Phase 1 and Phase 2,
based upon the assumptions herein to be:
The present residual value of the land for Phase 1 and Phase 2 respectively are:
Phase 1:
€ 16,000,000 Euros (Sixteen Million Euros) for the plot extending to 108,680m2.
Phase 2:
€ 6,800,000 Euros (Six Million Eight Hundred thousand Euros) for the plot extending
to 47,159m2.
The valuation has been prepared in accordance with the appropriate sections
contained within the RICS Appraisal and Valuation Standards, 5th edition (the "Red
Book"). This is an internationally accepted standard of valuation, and is in accordance
with the International Valuations Standards Committee (IVSC)".
King Sturge gives its consent that the valuation be used for the purpose of financial
reports, according to the IFRS, and that this valuation would be attached to the
publicly published financial reports of Sybil Europe Public Co. Limited, to the Tel Aviv
Stock Exchange and the Israel Security Authority.
Yours faithfully,
KING STURGE KFT
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. COUNTRY OVERVIEW
1.1 Hungary was part of the polyglot Austro-Hungarian Empire, which collapsed
during World War I. The country fell under Communist rule following World War II.
In 1956, a revolt and announced withdrawal from the Warsaw Pact were met with
a massive military intervention by Moscow. Under the leadership of Janos
KADAR in 1968, Hungary began liberalizing its economy, introducing so-called
"Goulash Communism." Hungary held its first multiparty elections in 1990 and
initiated a free market economy. It joined NATO in 1999 and the EU in 2004.
Since the mid-1990s, the Hungarian economy has grown at an annual average
rate of 4%, one of the highest growth rates in the EU. The private sector accounts
for over 80% of GDP. Foreign ownership of and investment in Hungarian firms
are widespread, with cumulative foreign direct investment totalling more than $60
billion since 1989. Hungarian sovereign debt was upgraded in 2000 and together
with the Czech Republic holds the highest rating among the Central European
transition economies; however, ratings agencies have expressed concerns over
Hungary's unsustainable budget and current account deficits. Germany is by far
Hungary's largest economic partner.
1.2 As a result of its early open policy toward foreign investment and due to its
central geographical location, Hungary has been the preferred location among
Central European countries for foreign direct investment since the beginning of
the transition to a market economy. It has been one of the region’s most popular
country amongst foreign investors, with 27% of all foreign investment in the
region ending up in Hungary, it is only overtaken by Poland.
1.3 In 2005, the retail sales rate in Hungary grew by 6.7%. Inflation has dropped from
14.7% in 1998 to 3.7% in 2005 but is expected to rise in 2006/7 by 1.6%. The
current unemployment rate is 5.9% and falling where as the employment rate has
risen to 52.3% of the population in 2005.
1.4 Interest rates have been steadily falling since 2002, when they began the year
with 34%. The current interest rates are 10.69% in Hungarian forints. The
elections in early April determined a second term of the Socialist Party (MSZP)
Hopefully better budget management should ensure that the country remains no
less attractive for international financial support and investment than its
neighbours. Policy challenges include cutting the public sector deficit to 3% of
GDP by 2008, from about 6.5% in 2005, and orchestrating an orderly interest rate
reduction without sparking capital outflows.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
All figures provided by CIA & KSH Hungary (Kozponti Statistical Huvatal) 2006 Edition
1.1 Demand for retail space in shopping centers has been increasing ever since the
first institutional style shopping centers were built in the mid 1990’s. Since then,
more than 54 shopping centers have been built across Hungary and 71
hypermarkets. This has added 1.3million m2 of shopping centers and 1.4million
m2 of hypermarkets making a total of now retail of 2.7million m2. Today there is
approximately 2.3m2 of retail space per capita in Hungary, albeit most of it is
concentrated around Budapest. There is a very strong demand for modern retail
in Budapest due to the high per capita income (when compared with other
countries in Central Europe) and the growing disposable income amongst its
residents. 20% of all retail sales are concentrated in supermarkets/hypermarkets
through out the country. Analysts feel that Budapest is close to reaching retail
floor space saturation and older less successful shopping center schemes will
need to rebrand or reposition them selves in the market if they are to compete
with the larger dominant attractions in Budapest.
1.2 Set against this background are the number of new trading fascias entering the
market who struggle to find appropriate space: eg, Zara, Jysk, Decathlon, Saturn.
1.3 At the end of 2006, the annual turnover of shopping centers and hypermarkets
was estimated at 4.4bn Euros or 1,450 Euros/m2 pa turnover. The growth in the
market over the coming years is anticipated to be from additional hypermarkets in
the provinces. According to major hypermarket groups they are together planning
some 10 to 12 additional units. Furthermore, we can expect to see the
development or diversification of the retail market with more specialty orientated
schemes such and factory outlets, out of town retail power centers and home
centers.
1.4 Shopping center rents vary from 70 to 100 Euros/m2 for units between 30m2 and
70m2, 30 Euros to 50 Euros for units between 70m2 and 120m2 and for anchors
and MSU’s (Medium Sized Units) between 8 and 18 Euros/m2/month. Service
charges are typically between 4.5 and 10 Euros/m2/month.
1.5 Land prices, of all forms of real estate investment, have seen the greatest
increases over the past 18 months. This has been driven by a combination of
factors, including the lack of suitable development sites, the number of new
players entering the market and the higher returns (prime yields for retail have
compressed from 8.75% in early 2005 to circa 7% in Q1 of 2006. It is anticipated
that retail developments due for completion over 2006 will command the markets
first sub 7% yields and with the weight of money chasing the still limited product
supply line, yields could even move to nearer 6.5% in the latter part of 2006.
However if interest rates rise, this will curb further yield compression.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
2. LOCATION
2.1 The subject site is located on the Pest side of the Danube in the XV th District of
Budapest referred to as Rakospalota which is located 11 km northeast of the city
center. Rakospalota is a fringe residential and commercial area of the city and is just
within the city boundary of Budapest. The subject site fronts the start of the M3
motorway which connects Budapest to Miskolcs in eastern Hungary. The proposed
development site is also 500m from the junction of the M0 orbital motorway.
The map below indicates the sites location in relation to the M3 and the M0 motorways
The population has grown in the XV th District as a result of numerous new residential
developments over the past 3 years, the most notiable schemes are Homoktovis
Residential Park. Today the population of the XV th District is 90,000 and the 5th
largest in Pest. The District supports an average household size of 3.2.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
2.1.1 The location has also been chosen by a number of leading out of town retailers which
include Metro, Mazda, Peugeot, Praktiker, Cora and Gulliver Toys. The area was first
recognised as being a strong location for retail in the mid 1990’2 when the Polus
shopping center, located in the center of XV th District, was built and subsequently
anchored by Tesco.
2.1.2 The site can be accessed directly from the M3 via the interchange, which connects the
Metro/Praktiker developments or via Mogyorod ut and Regi Foti ut. The surrounding
area is generally undeveloped and therefore offers opportunities in the future to infill
the neighbouring sites with residential projects.
Moreover, the developer has received a preliminary approval from the highway
authorities (AAP Rt) to grant the project an access, which leads the traffic from the
M3, via an underground tunnel, directly to the parking area of the project. This solution
enhances the desirability from the retailers and the continuing negotiations with them.
M3
M0
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
3.1.1 The XVth District is one of the easiest parts of Budapest to access, principally
because it is straddling one of the primary arterial roads in/out of the city. The subject
site is best reached from central Pest via the M3 dual carriageway which leads directly
from Robert Karoly Krt (inner ring road) or from the newly constructed M0 motorway
which runs to the north of the site and connect the XV th District with the IV th District.
Both roads are 2 or 3 lanes in each direction thus ensuring the free flow of carborne
traffic in the area. Estimated drive times from the main residential areas of the IV th
District are circa 10 minutes, Ujpalota in the XV th District is 5 minutes and the
northern parts of the XIV th District is 10 minutes. Accordingly, the site of the future
scheme provides good access.
3.1.2 There is a proposal within the development plan which can be seen below to construct
a new junction and link road which will be built over the M3 from the existing retail
park. This infrastructure project will provide an 8m radius roundabout from the existing
retail park which will lead on to a dual lane bridge over the M3 to a 17m radius
roundabout next to the subject site. From this round about will be a 10m wide slip
road to access the development. A second access to the site can be gained from
Mogyorod utja to the north western boundary of the site. This access is perhaps more
suited to deliveries rather than a principle means of access.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
3.1.3 By public transport the site is somewhat limited with only routes 25, 96 and 177
passing the viscinity of the site. Accordingly, it is proposed by the owner to provide a
shuttle bus service from the Polus Center and other high density pick up points to
facilitate traffic to the scheme.
3.2 SITUATION
3.2.1 The site is situated within the XV th District of Budapest which borders the IV th
District to the north west, and the XVI th District to the east and the XIV th District to
the south. The IV th and XIV th Districts are major residential districts within Budapest
and would principally form the direct catchment of the center.
3.2.2 To the north of the site are agricultural fields, a Shell petrol station and beyond some
light commercial buildings which border to Regi Foti ut and eventually the M0. To the
east the site directly borders the M3 motorway and opposite the retail park occupied
by Metro, Gulliver and Praktiker. To the south the site is defined by Mogyorod utja and
beyond residential detached houses and low rise apartment buildings whilst to the
west the site is bordered by residential properties.
Given the expected traffic generation from the retail development, a new access
junction will be developed with a filter road from the north directly in to and out of the
site. Whilst from the west, a secondary access will be constructed leading from
Mogyorod utja. It is anticipated that most of the traffic will be coming from Regi Foti ut
or the M3.
3.3 PLAN
3.3.1 Due to the rather preliminary nature of the development, plans are currently under
design by appointed architects, Casiopea Limited based in Budapest. These are
subject to change resulting from anchor and LSU occupier requirements. Thereafter
final design input can be made and the permitting plans produced.
3.4 SUMMARY
3.4.1 The property is located in what is one of the developing commercial and residential
areas of north east Budapest. There are clear signs of both residential and
commercial development and even leisure. He latter it is proposed to develop an
Aqua Park and hotel complex just south of Dunakeszi. Furthermore, with the
extension of the M0 filling the quadrant from 1 o’clock to 3 o’clock it will open up
another catchment from the XVI th District and the outer lying villages of Csomor,
Nagytarcsa and Kistarsca. This part of the M0 is scheduled for completion in 2009.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
4.0 DESCRIPTION
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
4.1.2 The scheme proposal broadly comprises in Phase I a ground floor of 34,780m2 GLA
and 8,108m2 GLA in second floor. In Phase II a ground floor of 11,294m2 GLA only.
The Center totaling net leaseable area of 54,182m2 served by surface parking
(providing approximately 1,800 open free car spaces). The configuration of the
center is arranged in the classic “U” shape layout with the anchor stores securing the
ends of the centre so as to encourage disbursement of consumers. The leisure/ food
court takes the form of a centrally positioned forum in the middle of the scheme with
an area of 250 m2 it is proposed to be operated by domestic catering operators.
4.1.3 The scheme will be anchored by a major hypermarket operator, since Metro, Cora
and Auchan are in close proximity discussions have been held with Interspar and
Tesco. The latter are known to be cramped in Polus and are looking to increase
their trading capacity in the neighbourhood. The LSU’s could comprise Electroworld
for electronics and consumer white goods, and a sports or furniture retailer. In
addition to the anchors the scheme will be further supported by 3 MSU’s (fashion
and office supplies, etc.) Fashion retailers could comprise C&A or Zara Outlet. The
access to the units will be from the parking.
4.1.4 The hypermarket is orientated to the southern elevation far from the main traffic
entrance to the Center with the capability to be independently serviced from the rear
access road.
4.1.5 Car parking, is on a ratio of 1 space per 30 m2 of the gross leaseable area of the
Center and is considered to be sustainable given that car ownership is 1 : 1.7
inhabitants. The scheme is based on functionality of the various units planned in
order to give the up most flexibility in dividing the space to big and small units, while
all are facing the parking with an appropriate frontage to dept ratio. In our view and
having appraised the market it seems appropriate as this will also aim to differentiate
the scheme from specialty and comparison retailers.
4.1.6 It is envisaged that the supermarket, variety anchor stores and the majority of the
unit shops should benefit from separate vehicle servicing areas which appears from
the plans to have been adopted, at the back side. The remainder of small units of
the scheme being informally serviced directly at the front. From the initial concept
plans provided this appears to have been satisfactorily implemented.
4.1.7 For a stand-alone facility, we believe the scheme will be predominantly reliant on car
access with less emphasis on public transportation. The design focuses on the car
parking as the primary shopping portal to the scheme. Pedestrian access to the
scheme will clearly be from the public transport points and we imagine that the bus /
shuttle bus stops will have direct access to the scheme.
4.1.8 The anchor stores and MSU’s are considered suitable to address the identified
demand. The main draw to the Center will inevitably be the food store and
competition in the immediate area is strong. A critical mass of 10,000m2 -
13,000m2 should be competitive but pricing of product will be a key driver.
Secondly, it is of fundamental importance to differentiate the Center from the variety
stores and comparison retailing found in the strip malls of Cora, Auchan and the new
Buy – Way. Our reservations are that the scheme will not work if the same retailers
are attracted nor if the concept claims to provide a one stop shopping forum.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
4.1.9 The M3 Shopping City needs to attract lower to middle income consumers who
represent the main catchment demographics and source retailers who are not yet
represented in the area with an increasing number of inbound trading fascias
entering the market. Nonetheless, it is important to emphasize that the Center's
location is advantageous in compares to the competition, in regards to its visibility
facing the M3, direct access from the M3 and the M0. With these parameters, the
competition is lacking at least with one parameter.
4.1.9 Servicing is provided for on the western and northern perimeter of the building with
smaller units having to be serviced at the front. Given the plans provided, the
circulation of service lorries around the scheme is peripheral and appears not to
handicap the customer shopping routes.
4.1.10 According to our research across Hungary and together with actual retailers, the
ideal size of shop units tends to vary between 37 and 120 m2. This does not apply to
anchors and MSU retailers who will look to occupy much larger units.
4.1.11 There is an increasing interest from larger multiples to take bigger units but at lower
rental costs and in peripheral areas of the city. This can be clearly evidenced by the
take up in schemes such as Buy- Way and Stop & Shop. These development are
similar in that they are stand alone peripheral retail developments of between
9,000m2 and 12,000m2 GLA and have secured occupiers such as Mountex, Media
Markt, C&A, Humanic, Office Depot, Jysk, Lira, Pannon Furniture, Brendon
Babyware and similar. In order to adequately comment on the schemes design and
content we have categorized the size of ‘Out of Town’ shop units into different
retailer types.
4.1.12 It is not possible to be more precise than the above ranges as individual retailers
have their own preferences. However, it is our recommendation that a range of unit
sizes for each retailer type are provided for within the design of the centre in order
that differing requirements can be satisfied.
We will briefly comment on the following factors in respect of the proposed layout of
the shopping centre:
4.1.13 Layout
In general it is fundamental to have a Power Center arranged over ground floor and
in one contiguous mass. The layout and shape of the scheme somewhat dictates the
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
placing of the anchors and the LSU’s. By having one contiguous mass and a central
promenade enables visitors to see all trading fascias in one go.
Anchors and LSU’s at either end of the scheme ensures an equal dilution of foot fall
and creates a natural gravitation from one end to the other. The choice and size of
the retail units will generally be determined by the early stages of marketing.
The existing layout of the scheme proposes entrances to the centre's units at the
front directly from the car parking to each unit. The food court, located in the middle
of the scheme will provide an enticing entrance.
In terms of the current layout of the proposed scheme the food court tenants are
situated at the center of the scheme. According to our research, food court
operators much prefer to be around the central gathering point of a scheme or at the
entrance to the Hypermarket as they benefit from the visits of their customers who
can reflect on their subsequent purchases. The design of the center allows the food
court to operate in conjunction with and independently to the rest of the scheme. We
would state that careful management of food smells will need to be monitored so as
not to infiltrate the site.
The location of anchor tenants in the centre is positioned at either ends of the
scheme. The scheme has been so designed that from any point in the site the
shopper has an uninterrupted view of all the trading fascias present in the scheme.
The anchors are further supported by MSU’s. At present it is too early to comment
on the merchandising mix although we can assume that the positioning of these
stores is to draw customers into the centre and assist with there so called ‘inline
movement’.
4.2.1 We have not been provided with any architect’s specifications for the finishes of the
power center at this stage as the final design plans and specification are not yet
prepared. Notwithstanding this, our discussions reveal that the finishes will generally
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
be of composite stone, which has good insulation and traffic resistant qualities, both
of which are important for the sustainability of the scheme.
4.2.2 The quality of materials used in the project and the provision of separate service
corridors will reduce the anticipated capital expenditure on replacing finishes. It is
usual practice, to provide quality-flooring materials in the retail sites used by the
public. Trolleying heavy loads across mall flooring in order to service unit shops will
increase wear and tear on flooring materials resulting in an inevitable shorter life
span. However, this is not applicable in the site, as the service is at the back of the
units and as the scheme of the site does not include inner corridors. It appears from
the plans provided that the units are accessed separately for each unit thus they can
be serviced during trading hours without disrupting pedestrian flow.
4.2.3 The developer intends to deliver the retail units as a cold shell, sewage, sprinkler,
electricity, air conditioning and telecoms conduits will be provided for the tenants to
plug directly into.
4.3 PHOTOGRAPHS
4.4 SUMMARY
4.4.1 The site is subject to a proposal to develop a modern "U" shape scheme, western
grade Strip Mall, which will be one of the first in Budapest and parallels a growing
market segment which currently remains virtually untapped. It will be arranged over
ground floor extending to a 46,074m2 GLA in 2 phases and 8,108m2 GLA in the first
floor. The center will be supported by surface car parking to the eastern elevation.
4.4.2 We understand that the project is currently at a planning stage with no planning
granted, other than an outline zoning.
5.0 ACCOMMODATION
5.1.1 We have been provided with final floor plans for M3 Shopping City. The schedule of
areas below are based on that information provided and may be subject to change
as a result of the final building permit. We would normally make a measured survey
of the plans in accordance with the latest addition of the RICS Code of Measuring
Practice 5th Edition. In the light of no formal information we have based our
assessment on confirmation from the schemes architects, Michael Israeli of
Casiopea who have provided the Gross Internal Floor Areas to be as follows:
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
We have relied upon the floor areas provided to us as being correct and calculated
in line with normal market practice (which varies from the 5th edition of the RICS
Code of Measuring Practice).
5.1.2 We have derived the following areas for other parts of the building:
Phase I:
Phase II:
5.2.1 Our understanding of the site boundaries are shown on the Cadastral Plan attached
at Appendix 4. The site extends to a total of 155,840 m2. The property is made up
of plot register No. 98113/1 totalling 108,681m2 and plot register No. 98109/1
totalling 47,159m2.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
5.2.2 The topography of the site is generally level and is regular is shape but generally
adopts the shape of a rectangle. The narrower part being to the north is close to the
access junction. The site approximately measures 715m along its east west axis,
200m along its northern border and 225m along its southern border. Access and
egress from the site will be via the new road.
6.0 SERVICES
6.1.1 We understand that all mains services are available to the property including
telecoms, electricity, gas and water.
Sewage infrastructure to the all area has been planned and approved by the
authorities but still has not been developed. All the property owners are to contribute
to the cost. This cost has been included in the valuation.
A new traffic solution has been developed in co-operation with Alami Auto Palya Rt
(State Motorways Authorities) and approved initially by the high way authorities. The
solution will provide a tunnel leading from the north bound carriageway of the M3
motorway, and will lead directly to the parking area of the project. It will be part of
the development and its estimated cost has been included in the valuation.
The design will be based on Hungarian OTÉK Standards. All works will be carried
out in accordance with relevant local standards and codes of practice and in
accordance with local regulations.
7.0 CONDITION
7.1.1 On the date of the inspection the construction works have not yet begun. The site
has been fenced off. Pictures of the site are contained in Appendix 2.
7.2.1 We understand that no deleterious materials will be used in the construction of the
property in accordance to the relevant regulations.
8.1.1 The property lies within the jurisdiction of the XV th District Planning Department,
sub district (Rakospalota) whose planning policies are contained within the Budapest
City Masterplan, which was adopted in May 2002. We understand that the plan
period will run from 2002 to 2008.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
8.1.2 According to the Masterplan, the site is currently zoned for mixed use and would
appear to comply with the proposed retail project. The site can be developed up to
25% which allows a maximum built foot print of 41,000m2. Foot print cannot exceed
35% of the land size, with a total building rights at a multiplier of 2.1. The maximum
built height to the eaves is 10m with a maximum finished height of 12m. The internal
floor height (slab to slab) on the ground floor is 7.5m.
8.1.3 We understand that a zoning permit application was submitted which took the land
out of recreational zoning, albeit the cadastral plans still state the site as
recreational. The reader should be made aware that not formal planning application
has been submitted and the valuation is based on the assumption that a scheme
mirroring that indicated in this report will be applied for and permitted.
8.1.4 Furthermore, the valuation assumes that all necessary building and planning
consents are forthcoming and there is minimal risk in this not being obtained. If it
transpires that the building permit will not be issued then the valuation does not hold
and the value is likely to be less than the residual site value.
8.1.5 The property is not within a conservation area. We would however recommend that
your advisors check this issue in further detail.
8.1.6 The new road infrastructure works are likely to be a condition of the planning permit
and these will need to be undertaken prior to the actual property construction works
taking place. There is some inherent risk in this approach. The up side is that the
property will eventually have direct access to an adopted highway. We are aware
that the developer is in the process of approving the traffic solution.
9.1 CONTAMINATION
9.1.2 During the course of our inspection of the property and its immediate vicinity for
valuation purposes and our usual subsequent enquires, the possibility that the
subject property may be contaminated has been considered by complying with the
various requirements of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. In particular,
we have had regard to the contents of the Appraisal and Valuation Manual and the
separate Guidance Note, Contamination and its implications for the Chartered
Surveyors, and the Property Observation Checklist for identifying apparent potential
for the contamination included herein.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
9.1.3 We did not observe evidence of potential and actual contamination on the property
that we consider could be likely to affect our valuation [or state any potential hazards
eg: landfill, knotweed, dumping, asbestos etc.
9.1.4 Our subsequent enquiries have not revealed any evidence that there is a significant
risk of contamination affecting the subject property or neighbouring properties that
would affect our valuation at this stage.
9.1.5 Therefore, for the purposes of this Valuation Report, we have assumed that no
contamination exists in relation to the property sufficient to affect value. However,
we would stress that should this assumption prove to be incorrect the values
reported herein might be reduced.
9.2.1 We understand that there is no history of flooding at this site and that it is not located
in a flood plain or flood risk area. Accordingly, we have not made any adjustment to
our valuation in respect of flood risk.
10.0 TAXATION
10.1 VAT
10.1.1 We understand that the property will be leased on formal lease agreements to
tenants in order that the receivable VAT can be off set against the VAT incurred in
the construction programme.
10.1.2 If this is the case, VAT issues should not adversely affect the value of the property
and therefore we have not made adjustment to our valuation in this regard.
We understand that the property is established within a special purpose vehicle where
transfer tax may be payable at a lower rate than normal property transactions.
Although this may provide a greater realisation in the onward sale of the property
since the taxes levied on the sale of quotas are negligible in comparison to the sale of
an asset, we have specifically not reflected this in our valuation.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
11.0 TENURE
11.1.1 The Cadastral Office in Budapest registers key information related to properties
listed in the Cadastral Extract (“Title Deeds”) from the public Cadastral Register.
The extract from the Cadastral Register notes the owner of the property, as well as
most third party rights which may encumber the property, i.e., easements,
mortgages or pre-emptive rights.
11.1.2 Under Hungarian law, data contained in the Cadastral Register are presumed to be
correct, but such presumption can be disproved by evidence to the contrary.
11.1.3 We have been provide with a copy of the cadastral extracts which are both dated
13th April 2007 and state that the ownership of the land plots below are owned
freehold by Present BBT Ingatlanforgalmazo Ltd. We summarise the cadastral
extracts below:
11.1.4 Based on the information contained within the Cadastral extract, there is a request of
registration in the name of Present BBT Ingatlanforgalmazo Ltd dated 27th August
2007.
11.1.5 We have not been provided with the Loan agreement and cannot comment there
upon. However, it is reasonable to assume that the ownership of the land may not
be transferred without prior written consent of the bank.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
11.1.6 For the purposes of the valuation we have assumed that there are no encumbrances
or unduly onerous or unusual easements, restrictions, outgoings or conditions that
are likely to have an adverse effect on the value of the property and we have
assumed that there is a good marketable title. If our assumptions on title are
incorrect then our valuation may be adversely affected.
12.0 TENANCIES
0-14 10,414
15-49 44,615
50-59 13,477
60< 21,435
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
13.2.2 It is anticipated that, as job opportunities in cities increase and, conversely, those in
rural areas decrease, the present levels of urban migration will continue. Labour
mobility is constrained by the lack of housing in the cities, and benefits retained by
protected housing rules. However, as incomes rise with the rapid growth of the
economy and the introduction of mortgage funding, more Hungarian people will be able
to afford their own homes and expenditure on DIY and household goods is likely to
increase.
13.2.3 The number of cars in Budapest is increasing daily and currently reflects 388,000
private vehicles. That suggests 1 car in every 1.7 people over the driving age. Our
conversations with Budapest Transport Department representatives reveal that the
figures of car ownership are in constant increase. Any new retail development should
cater for the need to provide for the car borne consumer. With increase in mobility, car
parking access and convenience will become increasingly important to shopping
behavior patterns. Information available from KSH indicates that average gross annual
wages in as of the end of the second quarter of 2005 of Eur 8,476 in Budapest.
13.2.4 Data available for the average monthly per capita expenditure by household (derived
from a family expenditure survey in Budapest undertaken by the Kozponti Statistical
Hivatal (KSH) and independent analysts GSK) suggest that the household expenditure
is Eur 10,083 per annum (p.a.). The expenditure data is limited to broad sectors and it is
difficult to identify retail expenditure in particular segments as opposed to expenditure
on education, holidays or health. The survey indicates that the bulk of household
expenditure being on food at 38% (excluding alcoholic and tobacco products) with
24.6% being spent on housing and utilities, 8% on transportation, 18.3% on clothing
and shoes etc.
13.2.5 Recent research by the Domestic Market Research Institute showed that the majority of
customers shop near their place of residence or work. There is a preference to visit
large stores where factors of convenience, choice, ease of car parking, time saving and
discount value apply. Some shops are positioned under the same retail area with
supermarket chains such as Cora, Tesco and Auchan. This indicates that such
shopping behavioral patterns are convenience based and primarily relating to fresh food
purchasing and weekly shopping. There is a clear migration towards shopping after
work or at weekends.
Although rental levels across all sectors remained stable in the last quarter, high street
rents in Budapest have increased on an annual basis. Yields have fallen in all sub-
sectors, continuing the downward trend from last quarter. Retail sales in 2005 showed a
healthy increase of 7.4%, compared to 2004, although this is a slower rate than two
years ago.
Occupier demand remains strong. The prime retail locations within Budapest are still
Váci utca Pedestrian Street and the shopping malls of Duna Plaza, Westend City
Center, Mammut Shopping Center and Árkád Center. Demand from foreign retailers is
still strong in these locations, although there is an increasing interest for other major city
centre locations.
Power centres, or smaller retail strip malls, and retail parks are an increasing focus for
developers. New schemes are underway in both Budapest and other major cities. New
plans for major shopping centres in Budapest are also expected, although it is not
certain how many will be completed. Concentration in the Hungarian market is
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
Foreign investor interest is continuing and although there were few transaction deals to
report in the second quarter, yields are showing a continuing downward trend. The
prime shopping centre yield fell to a record low of 7.30% in Q1 2006.
Going forward, the retail property market is expected to remain relatively stable. Steady,
moderate rental growth is anticipated for the best shopping centre and high street
locations. Investor interest is continuing, but whilst further yield falls are expected, the
pace of decline is likely to slow. Purchase offers nowadays are at the level of 6.5% - 7%
cap rates.
13.4.1 We refer you to our retail market overview attached in Appendix 5, which we consider
relevant to the subject property. The main competition will be felt from Polus Center,
Cora, Auchan, Buy Way and potentially ECE Arkad. The latter is planning a 15,000m2
extension which will create a very dominant shopping center in the XIV th District.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
14.0 VALUATION
14.1.1 In our development appraisal, we have proceeded as follows: The M3 Shopping City
proposal extends to some 54,182 m2 gross leaseable area in two phases. The
currently planned scheme incorporates a balanced blend of merchandise and
services. The success of the occupational element of the scheme will hinge on being
able to secure new and interesting trading facias and the creation of a critical mass
with sufficient variety and weight to pull customers to it.
14.1.2 After taking into consideration our market research as well as analysis of the existing
schemes throughout Budapest, approximately 40% of all the shop units are occupied
by fashion type retailers such as services, clothing, shoes, accessories and leather
goods. Given the above suggested size of the scheme it should be considered that
one supermarket and up to five - seven MSU’s in both phases could be supported
principally in the fashion, bulk goods (furniture) and sport goods sector.
14.1.3 We have valued the property assuming the construction of a fully let modern Retail
Park based upon a discounted cash flow.
14.1.4 We have based the areas on the assessment of the plans inspected and categorised
these areas in to Anchors, MSU’s, Unit shops and Food court. We have then applied
a market rental value for each sub category in order to arrive at a total estimated
average rent of €10.7/m2/mth for the ground floor, € 8.4/m2/mth for the first floor and €
16/m2/mth for phase 2.
14.1.5 We have not placed any rental value on the parking spaces as the scheme is
peripheral and we foresee only visitors to the site using the parking.
14.1.6 We have assumed that rental prices begin at Eur 8 /m2 for the hypermarket, Eur 9/m2
for the Anchors, Eur 13/m2 for the MSU’s, unit shops will range between Eur 22/m2 to
Eur 25/m2. The Phase 1 estimated annual income, if fully let, is at Eur 5,259,000
reflecting an average rent of Eur 10.17 /m2/month.
14.1.7 We have made adjustments to reflect capital expenditure on the center in year 5 and
year 8 for repairs and replacements up to the sum of 0.5m Eur.
14.1.8 Using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach with a discount rate of 8.25% and a
growth rate of 1.5% pa, we have discounted the future annual rental revenues back to
their present value in line with the cash-flow assumptions based above. Although CPI
indexation is generally adopted on rents, we have taken the approach that institutional
purchasers would expect to see growth in rents, albeit this could also be fixed stepped
increments. We have reduced the first year’s rental income to allow for rent free
periods, fitting out contributions and vacancies. We have made further deductions in
year 6 and year 8 where some of the leases will come up for renewal. We have
therefore allowed for a renegotiation on the passing rent, some rent free periods and
potential vacancy. Throughout the DCF we have assumed that there will be an
average of 5% - 7% vacancy across the scheme and we have allowed for this in our
DCF.
We have capitalised the reversionary income of both phase 1 and 2 at an all risks
yield of 7.2% and arrived at a market capital value of Eur 63.10 m for Phase 1. On
the basis of a simple capitalisation approach we have also applied a yield of 7.6% to
the second year passing income and arrived at a capital value of Eur 59,62m. The
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
basis of our yield is derived from similar investment transactions of retail schemes
which we have outlined on the following page.
The combined average of the DCF and direct capitalisation approach has resulted in a
capital value of the completed Phase 1 scheme of Eur 61,36 m and for Phase 2 a
value of 21.6m and the combined value for both of 83.0m Euros.
We have made a second valuation of the land plot based upon the project parameters
and budget for development of the project. The theoretical basis of this method is that
the expected sales proceeds or the rentals from the project are capitalised at the
project yield rate to arrive at the total capital value for the specific project. In arriving
at this value, we calculate the rent resulting from the Direct Capitalisation method in
order to arrive at the total capital value, or in the case of sales we adopt market
pricing. From this figure one deducts the total gross development costs, which is a
combination of hard and soft costs. Hard costs are considered as construction
materials, site clearance and demolition whilst soft costs are defined as planning fees,
architects, project management, mechanical and electrical engineering, marketing and
agency contingency costs and cost of finance. A further amount is deducted for the
developer’s profit (the risk reward accrued to the developer for undertaking the
project). The resultant figure represents the residual value/profit.
The residual profit is the amount the developer has for the land purchase (which
includes also the cost of purchase: agents and legal fees, stamp duty and cost of the
land finance.)
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
The discount rate used in DCF analysis is not the same as a yield as commonly
referred to in real estate transactions. A yield reflects an all risks single figure to
capture all aspects of the future performance of an investment and is growth implicit. A
discount rate is growth explicit with these factors dealt with explicitly elsewhere in the
cash flow; indexation voids and exit capitalisation rates.
The appropriate discount rate for any given investment is dependant on many factors.
The discount rate must reflect the underlying real estate characteristics of the
investment, the risk free rate of return, the risk profile of the individual investment, the
future income profile of the investment, cost of capital, cost of debt, investor’s
corporate structure, gearing ratio, target hurdle rate etc. What is immediately obvious
is that these factors are specific to individual parties and, considering the countless
interactions between the factors in the mind of any one investor, it is almost
impossible to exactly pin down one rate for all.
Office transaction have occurred between 6.15% and 6.55% during 2007, whilst prime
retail yields are at 5.9 % and prime logistics yields are between 6.75% and 7.0%. Our
applied discount rate is usually between 1000 – 140 bp above the all risks yield paid
for such an income producing asset.
We as the valuer’s must apply our own understanding of the market to build up a
picture of the “typical investor“ for the subject investments valued. We have had to
consider the typical buyer and not any specific one for a particular product since not all
investors are willing to apply the same value to an asset. This problem is amplified in a
rising market where suitable product is scarce and too much money is chasing too
little product. The very fact that an investor has been successful in securing a deal
almost automatically means they have agreed a price that would be considered above
market value. This is particularly true in the case of Central European Markets where
the subject properties have been valued.
For straight investment product it easier to estimate suitable discount rates for
valuation purposes as the attitudes of investors and lending banks to the inherent risks
are well known. The markets in which the products we are valuing, in general, have
converged such that numerous investors are of the same mind when it comes to
specific transaction profiles and the valuer can be confident in his opinion of the typical
market purchaser. In this case we have generally adopted discount rates of between
7.5 – 8.5% depending on the type of property. In respect of the appraised property we
have taken a pragmatic assumption on the discount rate of 8.25% to reflect the
development nature of the scheme. For development property the investor profile is
spread over a wider range and investors previously averse to development risk are
beginning to enter this market. Their return expectations are obviously greater than
before but may be less than developers who have traditionally operated in this sector.
At present the discount rate for development income is predominantly influenced by
the attitudes and expectations of the developers as they remain the most active.
Since development projects expose the investor to a greater level of risk we have
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
reflected this in our appraisals by choosing rates between 9 % - 10% depending upon
the product, location and period for development – the longer the period the higher the
systematic risk.
To reach an appropriate discount rate where there is a wider range of investors active,
the attitude of the investor is most important.
Ultimately there must be a personal level of comfort above and beyond the bare
numbers. The effects of this are plain to see in emerging markets where country risk,
itself hard to quantify, has such an impact. Two projects, fundamentally the same in
countries of seemingly similar risk on paper, will see investors applying different
discount rates for no better reason than that they are familiar with one country and
have perceived a greater level of comfort from this. This snowballs into a herd
mentality on the basis that if one person has made this decision and they are of a
similar profile then the developer too must be entering this market. The current
position of the Romanian, Bulgarian and Serbian markets can be viewed in this way.
Discount Rate. We have Given that both phases are likely to reflect the
adopted 8.25% similar amount of development risk we have
for Phase 1 and chosen to reflect the letting risk on the Present
2 and a PV Value factor adopting 9% for Phase 1 and 10% for
factor of 9% for Phase 2.
P1 and 10% for
P2
Leasing Voids Up to 18 months Where vacancy occurs in the scheme at the date
void of valuation we have assumed the first 18 months
will remain unlet and thereafter let at ERV. We
have assumed releasing voids in year 5 of 4
months and releasing voids in year 8 of 3 months
on the MSU’s. We have conservatively assumed
50% occupancy during the first year of trading.
We have also allowed for approximately 500,000
Euros for non recoverable operating costs.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:
We have undertaken a financial sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the
development in the light of fundamental changes to key aspects of the project. We
have run a correlation between fluctuations in the discount rate (risk return) against
fluctuations in the anticipated ERV’s secured on retail lettings. The analysis shows
the effect of the changes in the key parameters against GDV and residual land values.
The worst case scenario is represented by a 13.4% drop in GDV from business plan
assuming ERV’s drop by 10% and the discount rate increases by 10%. Whilst this
would have the effect of wiping out a majority of the profit, it is robust enough that the
residual land value maintains close to its book value and there is still a 12.75% return
on business plan costs.
We have run a sensitivity analysis for the Gross Development Value
INCOME
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
- 33 -
PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
INCOME
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
-10% 18,800,000 22,100,000 25,400,000 28,700,000 32,000,000
PREVIOUS INVOLVEMENT
King Sturge Kft. have previously valued the property in April 2007. The interests of
Millennium Heights Kft in the project Company were valued for €6,419,500. The
purpose of the valuation was for the Interim Balance Sheet dated 31st December 2005.
The interests of Present BBT Ingatlan forgalmazo Kft in the project Company were
valued for €18,000,00. The purpose of the valuation was for the Interim Balance Sheet
dated 31st December 2006.
This value reflected the interest of Present BBT Ingatlan forgalmazo Kft at that time.
The uplift in value between December 2006 and September 2007 is brought about by
the attribution of improved accessibility, value engineering, more advanced planning
and design fees and the growth in market value.
TRANSACTION HISTORY:
We are aware of the following former transactions in respect of the property over the
past 2 years.
On January 3rd 2006, the present BBT Kft purchased the full ownership from Millenium
Heights Kft for EUR 7,640,000 including. VAT.
On 21st September 2006, Solsbury Trading Limited purchased the 62% ownership of a
third party in the present BBT Kft at a value basis of EUR 10,000,000.
We have been informed by the company that as for December 31st 2006 the book value
of the property is recorded in the financial reports of Sybil Europe Limited at cost of
EUR 10,671,000 and in the financial reports of Present BBT Kft at cost of EUR
8,759,000 respectively to their holding shares.
- 34 -
PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
COMPARABLE TRANSACTIONS
The property is
let to Match,
C&A, and many
other
international
retailers.
- 35 -
PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
Market Value assuming sale of completed development of both Phase 1 and Phase 2:
14.2.1 Based on the facts and assumptions contained within this Valuation Report the Gross
Development Value of Phase 1 scheme as at 30th September 2007 is in the region of
Eur 61,400,000 (Sixty one Million, four Hundred Thousand Euros GROSS) for
phase 1. The reported value is exclusive of VAT.
14.2.2 The Gross Development Value of Phase 2 scheme as at 30th September 2007 is in the
region of Eur 21,600,000 (Twenty one Million, six Hundred Euros GROSS) for
Phase 2. The reported value is exclusive of VAT
14.2.3 Based on the facts and assumptions contained within this Valuation Report the Market
Value of the property in its existing state (i.e. a land site) as at 30th September 2007 is
in the region of Eur 22,800,000 (Twenty Two Million, Eight Hundred thousand Euros
GROSS). The reported value is exclusive of VAT.
In reaching both the Gross Development Value and Residual value figures above we have
relied upon information provided to us by the client and their advisors. Our valuation assumes
that this information is true and accurate. We have inspected the basic information and found it
to be reasonable in terms of market values and in line with normal construction costs for such
types of buildings.
For the purposes of the valuation, we have not deducted disposal costs when valuing the
property such as agents, legal fees or notary's fees nor have we included transfer tax.
In accordance with standard practice, we would confirm that this valuation certificate cannot be
relied upon by any third party, which does not comply within the instructions of valuation, thus
no responsibility is accepted to any third party in respect of the whole or any part of its contents
in this regards.
Neither the whole, nor any part of this certificate, nor any reference thereto, may be included in
any document, circular or statement without our written approval of the form and context in
which it appears. King Sturge gives its consent that the valuation be used for the purpose of
financial reports, according to the IFRS and that this valuation would be attached to the publicly
published financial reports of Sybil Europe Public Co. Limited, to Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and
the Israel Security Authority.
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PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
In comparison to our previous valuation of the property several months ago, the
main key factors, which have attributed towards the increase in the property's
value, are: The development process of the project has advanced principally in the
planning and highways process. The developer has similarly progressed in the
building permit , traffic permits process and other technical surveys are already
underway.
The developer has received a preliminary approval from the highway authorities
(AAP zRt) to grant the project an access, which leads the traffic from the
eastbound carriageway of the M3, via an underground tunnel, directly to the
parking area of the project.
Despite the tightening of the debt markets in recent months, we are yet to see a
softening of capitalisation rates and yields being considered in the market in
general and at the date of valuation there is still significant investment activity
which demonstrates more robust yields than those considered in this appraisal.
- 37 -
PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
15.1 STRENGTHS
Modern design and high specification Retail Park in a market, which is
becoming increasingly more and more interesting for institutional
purchasers.
Still a new and undiscovered concept in Budapest which is becoming
increasingly more sophisticated in its retail offer and incurs lower
developer's risk in the sense of lower development costs in compares to
shopping malls.
A counter weight to the Budaors Retail area in the south-western part of
Budapest
Sufficient critical mass to be able to compete.
Good volume of surface car parking
Located in an increasingly developing area with excellent visibility
Located adjacent to two main highways in Budapest – M3 and M0
Located approx. 10 min from city center
Good transport links – new access infrastructure approved in preliminary
stage for a direct access from the M3 to the project's parking, via a
underground tunnel.
A big site, which allows development in phases and blocking potential
competition
15.2 WEAKNESSES
The location is off center and is reliant on becoming locally well known and
requires a higher emphasis on private transportation.
The road access is not ideal and requires a lot of doubling back on
oneself. Visitors will need to learn the access route. It would be simpler if
the scheme was on the opposite side of the M3 (Budapest Exit).
Significant established retail already in existence in the catchment
15.3 OPPORTUNITIES
Increasing number of trading fascias looking to expand their retail formats
across Hungary, a dedicated scheme is one of the easiest methods of
entry.
Strong consumer spending growth is likely to increase over the coming
years
Increasing reversionary exit yields pushed by activity from institutional
investors entering the market improves business plan
With the completion of the M0 in the eastern quadrant the catchment area
can be increased.
Potential to expand the development in the event of identifying new trading
fascias entering the market.
15.4 THREATS
Possible future competition over time from other developments, and
developers causing pressure on rents.
Binding Planning approvals not yet been obtained for current project.
Changes in the financial markets may affect project returns.
Project does not appeal to small units city center retailers.
Potential difficulty in securing LSU’s and Hypermarket.
- 38 -
PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
16.0 CONCLUSION
Our assessment of gross development value has been assessed in the light of
current market evidence and makes no allowance for changes in value (cost
increases) over time except for rental indexation.
Retail schemes such as the M3 Shopping City and becoming increasingly sought
after by institutional investors and as such if appropriately designed and let will
attract a gaggle of institutional investors.
Our valuation is based on the successful permitting of the land plots and the
successful leasing of the scheme based upon the rental value estimates contained
here in. Notwithstanding, we have checked the residual land value in accordance
with market value and would state that it is 30% higher than other available plots on
the M0, arguably this subject site is better located.
17.1.1 It is recognised that the site is of sufficient size and orientation to accommodate the
proposed development.
17.1.2 We are satisfied that the scheme appears to have the prospect of a sufficient return at
the required levels to proceed subject to detailed analysis of costs and development
expenses.
17.1.3 The work necessary to secure the anchor pre-lettings and international MSU’s should
continue as this is crucial for a new project entering an already well developed market
17.1.4 Satisfactory pre-letting agreements to the anchor stores and MSU’s would also
provide the final design input required and the permitting drawings can be completed.
17.1.5 We recommend that the design continues to respond to the principal operator
requirements. Architects and cost consultants should be approached at all stages.
- 39 -
PRESENT BBT INGÁTLAN FORGALMAZÓ KFT
M3 SHOPPING CITY
BUDAPEST
SEPTEMBER 2007
We have discussed our rental values with Present BBT’s team at a local level and
consider these to be sustainable and equally affordable for inbound retailers. Whilst
we have based our assessment on fixed rental values, Present BBT would be willing
to base a rent as a fixed rental values or percentage of retail turnovers, the higher of
the two.
Discussions have been held with a number of space users including hypermarket
operators and LSU’s. Responses have generally been positive. In order to assist the
letting campaign as much information as possible will need to be provided to retailers
including population and expenditure estimates, details of the location in relation to the
highway infrastructure network and proposed improvements, details on the design and
tenant mix strategy, anchor store lettings, parking provision and anticipated service
charge liabilities will need to be provided along with an outline of the anticipated lease
structure and rent review pattern.
Reference has been made to our view that the market is strong enough for the
scheme to be leased on advantageous tenure. We envisage either a minimum term of
5 years with a mutual option to review for a further 5 or a 10-year term subject to a
rental, which is to be indexed and linked to an appropriate strong currency. We would
recommend that the rental is payable monthly/quarterly in advance in common with
- 40 -
APPENDIX 1
M3 Shopping City, Budapest - Phase I
2 049 289
4,0 Marketing
4,1 Marketing @ 0,25% of gross development value 153 415
4,2 Promotion @ 0,75% of gross development value 460 245
5,2 Marketing Management 0,10% of gross development value 61 366
4,3 Agent's fees @ 1,40% of gross development value 859 125
1 534 151
41 724 778
657 469
4,0 Marketing
4,1 Marketing @ 0,25% of gross development value 54 079
4,2 Promotion @ 0,75% of gross development value 162 238
5,2 Marketing Management 0,10% of gross development value 21 632
4,3 Agent's fees @ 2,75% of gross development value 594 874
832 823
272328
M3 Retail Park
Asset Pricing Strategy
Executive Summary - 10 year Plan
PROPERTY DESCRIPTION
(1) Leveraged analysis is based on market financing which may or may not be obtainable by an investor.
This information has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your
responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future
performance of the property. The value of this transaction to you depends on tax and other factors which should be evaluated by your tax, financial, and legal advisors. You and your advisors
should conduct a careful, independent investigation of the property to determine to your satisfaction the suitability of the property for your needs. King Sturge Corporate Finance is a division of
King Sturge International and are members of the RICS.
List of tenants and income from total lettable area DECEMBER 2006
AREA Lease fee ERV 0% End of Remaining 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5%
COMPANY Yld 0% Extn Period 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2
M2 Eur /m /mo Eur /mo Yrs End in months Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Supermarket 14 255,0 8,00 114 040,00 12 2020.05.15 - 144 684 240 1 388 323 1 408 454 1 428 876 1 449 595 1 470 614 1 491 938 1 513 571 1 535 518 1 557 783
Other Non Fashion Anchors 12 193,0 8,00 97 544,00 12 2020.05.15 - 144 585 264 1 187 501 1 204 719 1 222 188 1 239 910 1 257 888 1 276 128 1 294 631 1 313 404 1 332 448
Fashion Anchors 1 786,0 13,00 22 057,10 7 2015.05.15 84 132 343 268 523 272 417 276 367 280 374 284 440 288 564 146 374 288 564 292 748
Unit Shops 200 - 500m2 3 438,0 17,00 55 523,70 5 2013.05.15 60 333 142 675 946 685 747 695 690 705 778 358 006 705 778 716 011 726 394 736 926
Unit Shops 120 - 200m3 2 152,0 25,00 48 420,00 6 2013.05.16 72 333 142 589 465 598 012 606 684 615 480 312 202 615 480 624 405 633 459 642 644
Unit Shops 80 - 120m2 606,0 25,00 13 635,00 5 2013.05.15 60 81 810 165 992 168 399 170 841 173 318 87 916 173 318 175 831 178 381 178 381
Food Court (Incl. Open Area) 250,0 45,00 10 125,00 5 2013.05.15 60 60 750 123 262 125 049 126 862 128 702 65 284 128 702 130 568 132 461 134 382
Stands 100,0 70,00 6 300,00 5 2013.05.15 60 37 800 76 696 77 808 78 937 80 081 40 621 80 081 81 242 82 420 83 615
First Floor:
Entertainment 5 556,0 10,50 58 338,00 10 2020.05.15 120 350 028 710 207 720 505 730 952 741 551 752 303 752 303 763 212 774 278 785 505
Food 2 552,0 4,00 10 208,00 5 2013.05.15 60 61 248 124 272 126 074 127 902 129 757 65 819 129 757 131 638 133 547 135 483
Sub Total First Floor 8 108,0 8,58 68 546,0 2 659 767 5 310 187 5 387 185 5 465 299 5 544 546 4 695 093 5 642 049 5 577 485 5 798 426 5 879 916
Total Leased Area 42 888,0 PV at 8,25% 0,923787529 0,853383398 0,788344941 0,728263225 0,672760485 0,621487746 0,574122629 0,530367325 0,48994672 0,45260667 0,438897314
NPV 2 457 060 4 531 625 4 246 960 3 980 176 3 730 151 2 917 943 3 239 228 2 958 116 2 840 920 2 661 289 29 541 988
TOTAL ANNUAL INCOME ( EURO ) 2 659 767,00 5 310 186,80 CAP VAL: 59 626 648 Eur Cap Rate: 7,60%
PHASE 2:
MSU'S 4 438 14,00 745 584 10 2019.03.01 372 792 745 584 756 395 756 395 756 395 756 395 756 395 756 395 756 395
Unit Shops 500 -850 2 695 16,00 491 568 5 2014.03.01 245 784 491 568 498 696 505 927 513 263 513 263 520 705 528 255 535 915
Unit Shop 250 - 500 2 550 17,00 468 180 5 2014.03.01 234 090 468 180 474 969 481 856 481 856 481 856 481 856 481 856 488 843
Unit Shop 100 - 200 351 20,00 75 816 5 2014.03.01 37 908 75 816 76 915 78 031 79 162 79 162 80 310 81 474 82 656
Less than 100 1 260 20,00 272 160 5 2014.03.01 136 080 272 160 276 106 280 110 284 171 284 171 288 292 292 472 296 713
Total 11 294 15,15 2 053 308,00 1 026 654 2 053 308 2 083 081 2 102 318 2 114 847 2 114 847 2 127 558 2 140 452 2 160 521
PV at 8,25% 0,923787529 0,853383398 0,788344941 0,728263225 0,672760485 0,621487746 0,574122629 0,530367325 0,48994672 0,45260667 0,438897314
NPV 0 876 129 1 618 715 1 517 031 1 414 356 1 314 351 1 214 181 1 128 387 1 048 708 977 866 10 854 933
TOTAL ANNUAL INCOME ( EURO ) 0,00 876 129,48 CAP VAL: 21 298 881 Eur Cap Rate: 7,60%
Output
Annual Payment -3 971 000 Euro
Monthly Payment -330 956 Euro
Balance as of Due Date 13 018 537 Euro
First Floor:
Entertainment 350 028 710 207 720 505 730 952 741 551 752 303 752 303 763 212 774 278 785 505
Food 61 248 124 272 126 074 127 902 129 757 65 819 129 757 131 638 133 547 135 483
Phase 2:
MSU'S 372 792 745 584 756 395 756 395 756 395 756 395 756 395 756 395 756 395
Unit Shops 500 -850 245 784 491 568 498 696 505 927 513 263 513 263 520 705 528 255 535 915
Unit Shop 250 - 500 234 090 468 180 474 969 481 856 481 856 481 856 481 856 481 856 488 843
Unit Shop 100 - 200 37 908 75 816 76 915 78 031 79 162 79 162 80 310 81 474 82 656
Less than 100 136 080 272 160 276 106 280 110 284 171 284 171 288 292 292 472 296 713
TOTAL RENTAL INCOME 2 561 217 5 443 063 7 237 635 7 342 581 7 438 081 6 704 035 7 548 113 7 493 232 7 723 997 7 822 440
Parking Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL GROSS INCOME 2 561 217 5 443 063 7 237 635 7 342 581 7 438 081 6 704 035 7 548 113 7 493 232 7 723 997 7 822 440
Void - Retail 20,0% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0%
Void Cost 512 243 272 153 367 129 371 904 335 202 377 406 374 662 386 200 391 122 391 122
Non Recoverable Outgoings 514 656 85 776 85 776 85 776 85 776 85 776 85 776 85 776 85 776 85 776
Expenses 5 000 5 250 5 513 5 788 6 078 6 381 6 700 7 036 7 387 7 757
519 656 363 179 458 418 463 468 427 055 469 563 467 138 479 011 484 285 484 655
NET OPERATING INCOME 2 041 561 5 079 884 6 779 218 6 879 113 7 011 025 6 234 472 7 080 975 7 014 221 7 239 711 7 337 786
ACQUISITION/RESIDUAL
Acquisition Cost 57 154 739 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 All Cash Net Purchase Price 57 154 740
Net Residual Value 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 97 780 503 IRR Purchase Costs 2,00%
CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT -57 154 739 2 041 561 5 079 884 6 779 218 6 879 113 6 811 025 6 234 472 7 080 975 6 676 721 7 239 711 105 118 289 13,82%
FINANCING 10,763226
Principal 40 008 317 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 018 537 Leveraged 9,290895
Loan Fees & debt Services 140 029 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 -3 971 000 IRR
CASH FLOW AFTER DEBT -17 006 393 -1 929 439 1 108 884 2 808 218 2 908 113 2 840 025 2 263 472 3 109 975 2 705 721 3 268 711 114 165 825 25,10%
Cash-on-Cash Return
All Cash 3,57% 8,89% 11,86% 12,04% 11,92% 10,91% 12,39% 11,68% 12,67% 12,84%
Leveraged -11,35% 6,52% 16,51% 17,10% 16,70% 13,31% 18,29% 15,91% 19,22% 19,80%
Debt Coverage Ratio 0,51 1,28 1,71 1,73 1,72 1,57 1,78 1,68 1,82 1,85
This information has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions,
assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. The value of this transaction to you depends on tax and other factors which should be evaluated by your tax, financial, and legal advisors. You and your advisors should conduct a
careful, independent investigation of the property to determine to your satisfaction the suitability of the property for your needs.
Bradmore Consulting Corporate Finance is a division of Bradmore Securities Group (Europe) and are members of the RICS.
(1) Leveraged analysis is based on market financing which may or may not be obtainable by an investor.
(1) Leveraged analysis is based on seller financing.
APPENDIX 2
Budapesti 1. számú Körzeti Földhivatal
Budapest, XI.,Budafoki út 59. 1519 Pf. : 415. Oldal: 1 / 62
I. R É S Z
Földrészlet területe változás elõtt: 47159 (m2) törlõ határozat:9015/2005
1. Az ingatlan adatai:
alrészlet adatok terület
kat.t.jöv. alosztály adatok
mûvelési ág/kivett megnevezés/ min.o k.fill. ha m2
ter. kat.jöv
ha m2 k.fill
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- szántó - 4 4.7154 123.07
II. R É S Z
1. hányad: 1/1 törlõ határozat: 147299/1/2001/01.06.06
bejegyzõ határozat, érkezési idõ: 68339/1988/1988.05.30
törlõ határozat: 147299/1/2001/01.06.06
jogcím: -
jogállás: tsz. földhasználati jog
név: VÖRÖSMARTHY MEZÕGAZD.TSZ.
cím: 1151 BUDAPEST XV. Szabadság utca 44
III. R É S Z
1. bejegyzõ határozat, érkezési idõ: 248486/1/2003/02.10.10
törlõ határozat: 113294/1/2004/04.03.04
özvegyi jog
utalás: II /256-257.
jogosult:
név : Gyõri István
szül. : 1921
a.név : Farkas Mária
cím : 1152 BUDAPEST XV.KER. Régifóti utca 25
I. R É S Z
Földrészlet területe változás elõtt: 108681 (m2) törlõ határozat:9015/2005
1. Az ingatlan adatai:
alrészlet adatok terület
kat.t.jöv. alosztály adatok
mûvelési ág/kivett megnevezés/ min.o k.fill. ha m2
ter. kat.jöv
ha m2 k.fill
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- szántó - 10.8671 268.72
4 7.9993 208.78
5 2.8678 59.94
II. R É S Z
1. hányad: 1/1 törlõ határozat: 147032/1/2001/01.06.06
bejegyzõ határozat, érkezési idõ: 68339/1988/1988.05.30
törlõ határozat: 147032/1/2001/01.06.06
jogcím: földrendezés 1597/1960/1960.08.12
jogcím: - 68339/1988/1988.05.30
jogállás: tsz. földhasználati jog
név: VÖRÖSMARTY MEZÕGAZDASÁGI TERMELÕSZÖVETKEZET
cím: 2151 FÓT szabadság utca 44.
III. R É S Z
1. bejegyzõ határozat, érkezési idõ: 266872/1/2002/02.10.10
törlõ határozat: 113294/1/2004/04.03.04
Özvegyi jog a részre.
utalás: II /256-257.
jogosult:
név : Gyõri István
szül. : 1921
a.név : Farkas Mária
cím : 1152 BUDAPEST XV.KER. Régifóti utca 25
Competition to the M3 Retail Center is expected to be felt from the following nearby
retail formats.
4
5
KEY:
M3
1 Auchan & Buy Way
4 Polus Center
The Auchan Hypermarket is located in an area called To Part on the southern edge of
Dunakeszi and approximately 5km north east of the M3 Power Center site. This
represents a drive time of under 10 minutes.
Other principle retailers include Mustang Jeans, Reno Shoes, Dockers, St Oliver and
Deichmann Shoes. The development is serviced with its own dedicated car parking.
There is scope to develop further big box stand along retail facilities on the park.
Giacomelli, the
M3 Retail Park is located opposite the proposed M3 Power Center development and
directly fronts the M3 motorway. Driving time from Budapest is about 5 minutes. It
is easily approachable from Fót. The complex is best accessed directly from the
motorway when leaving Budapest.
Within the retail park are Praktiker (DIY store), Peugeot (car dealer), Gulliver (toy
shop) and Metro (wholesale department store) and some wholesale warehouses selling
motor cruisers and automotive components.
Pólus Center was amongst the first shopping centers to be built in Budapest and was
delivered in 1996. It is located on Szentmihályi út, 3 minutes drive away from the M3
motorway.
The 56,000 sqm scheme is anchored by a 16,000m2 Tesco hypermarket, antwo LSU’s
– Office Depot and Media Markt. The design of the scheme is arranged in a twin
parallel strip mall connecting the anchors. The unit shop provision is mainly
orientated towards services such as shoe repair, film processing, Post Office, OTP
Bank, hairdresser, jewellery, gifts, sweets, travel agency, newspaper, book stores,
lottery, pharmacy, drogerie, money change and watch repair. Other fashion occupiers
include: C&A, Orsay, Jeans Club, Woodoo, Nike sport shop, Hervis, Humanic etc.
The food court – referred to as Western City has fast food chains, such as
McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, Chinese, Greek catering offers, it is positioned infront of the
in door ice rink. The development is further supported by a 14 screen Hollywood
multiplex cinema, bowling alley, fitness center.
Pólus Center provides free parking lot with 2.500 places. The development was sold
to ING Real Estate in Q3 2005 at a yield of 8.05 %.
The Asia Center was developed in co-operation with Strabag, Michael Song and Li Li
Ping. It was completed in 2003. The development is is located next to Pólus Center
and consists of two detached symmetrical buildings, each with a strip mall and unit
shops principally selling Asian merchandise.
The main merchandise profile is clothes, shoes (mainly Chinese) and food.
The development totals 205,000 sqm GLA and is arranged over 3 levels. There is a
underground car park servicing the scheme.
China Town is located next to Asia Center. It was completed in 2005. The
development is located next to Pólus Center and consists of a single three level
detached building. Each floor is divided in to approximately 100 stalls selling
Chinese merchandise.
The development totals 35,000 sqm GLA and is arranged over 3 levels.
It is our objective to provide a professional and efficient valuation service to all our clients. In the
interests of establishing clear terms of reference at the outset we believe that it is important that we
should fully understand the requirements of our clients and the purpose and basis of the valuations that
they commission and that clients should understand the usual limitations to
the services offered. We are pleased to discuss variations, where appropriate, and to arrange the
provision of extended or additional services, such as site, building or structural surveys if required.
The following General Principles apply to all valuations and appraisals undertaken by King Sturge in
the Europe unless it is specifically agreed otherwise in confirming instructions and so stated within the
main body of the report. The General Principles themselves will normally be included as an appendix
to the report but will nonetheless comprise a part of the conditions of our engagement.
Valuations and appraisals will be carried out in accordance with the RICS Appraisal and
Valuation Standards ("The Red Book"), by valuers who conform to its requirements, and
with regard to relevant statutes or regulations. Compliance with The Red Book is
mandatory for Chartered Surveyors in the interests of maintaining high standards of
service and for the protection of clients.
2 Confirmation of Instructions
In order to comply with The Red Book, instructions must be confirmed with clients in
writing. In addition to the matters specifically referred to below, the purpose, timetable
and extent of and limitations to the valuation service are subject to such agreement.
3 Valuation Basis
Properties are valued individually and valuations and appraisals are carried out on a basis
appropriate to the purpose for which they are intended and in accordance with the
relevant definitions, commentary and assumptions contained in The Red Book. The basis
of valuation will be stated in the body of the report and the definition will usually be
included with these General Principles
4 Title & Burdens
We do not read documents of title although, where provided, we consider and take
account of matters referred to in solicitors reports or certificates of title. We would
normally assume, unless specifically informed and stated otherwise, that each property
has good and marketable title and that all documentation is satisfactorily drawn and that
there are no unusual outgoings, planning proposals, onerous restrictions or local authority
intentions which affect neither the property nor any material litigation pending.
No allowance is made in our valuation for expenses of realisation or for taxation which
may arise in the event of a disposal and our valuation is expressed as exclusive of any
VAT that may become chargeable. Properties are valued disregarding any mortgages or
other charges.
6 Sources of Information
We rely upon the information provided to us, by the sources listed, as to details of tenure
and tenancies (subject to 'Leases' below), planning consents and other relevant matters, as
summarised in our report. We assume that this information is complete and correct.
7 Boundaries
Plans accompanying reports are for identification purposes only and should not be relied
upon to define boundaries, title or easements. The extent of the site is outlined in
accordance with information given to us and/or our understanding of the boundaries.
9 Property Insurance
Our valuation assumes that the property would, in all respects, be insured against all usual
risks including terrorism, flooding and rising water table at normal, but commercially
acceptable premiums.
11 Structural Condition
Building, structural and ground condition surveys are detailed investigations of the
building, the structure, technical services and ground and soil conditions undertaken by
specialist building surveyors or engineers and fall outside the normal remit of a valuation.
Since we will not have carried out any of these investigations, except where separately
instructed to do so, we are unable to report that the property is free of any structural fault,
rot, infestation or defects of any other nature, including inherent weaknesses due to the
use in construction of deleterious materials. We do reflect the contents of any building
survey report referred to us or any defects or items of disrepair of which we are advised
or which we note during the course of our valuation inspections but otherwise assume
properties to be free from defect.
12 Ground Conditions
We assume there to be no unidentified adverse ground or soil conditions and that the load
bearing qualities of the sites of each property are sufficient to support the building
constructed or to be constructed thereon.
13 Environmental Investigations
Investigations into environmental matters would usually be commissioned of suitably
qualified environmental specialists by most responsible purchasers of higher value
properties or where there was any reason to suspect contamination or a potential future
liability. Furthermore, such investigation would be pursued to the point at which any
inherent risk was identified and quantified before a purchase proceeded. Anyone averse
to risk is strongly recommended to have a proper environmental investigation undertaken
and, besides, a favourable report may be of assistance to any future sale of the property.
Where we are provided with the conclusive results of such investigations, on which we
are instructed to rely, these will be reflected in our valuations with reference to the source
and nature of the enquiries. We would endeavour to point out any obvious indications or
occurrences known to us of harmful contamination encountered during the course of our
valuation enquiries.
We are not, however, environmental specialists and therefore we do not carry out any
scientific investigations of sites or buildings to establish the existence or otherwise of any
environmental contamination, nor do we undertake searches of public archives to seek
evidence of past activities which might identify potential for contamination. In the
absence of appropriate investigations and where there is no apparent reason to suspect
potential for contamination, our valuation will be on the assumption that the property is
unaffected. Where contamination is suspected or confirmed, but adequate investigation
has not been carried out and made available to us, then the valuation will be qualified by
reference to appropriate sections of The Red Book.
14 Leases
You should confirm to us in writing if you require us to read leases. Where we do read
leases we recommend that reliance is not placed on our interpretation of these documents
without reference to solicitors particularly where purchase or lending against the security
of a property is involved.
15 Covenant
16 Loan Security
Where instructed to comment on the suitability of property as a loan security we are only
able to comment on any inherent property risk. Determination of the degree and adequacy
of capital and income cover for loans is the responsibility of the lender having regard to
the terms of the loan.
17 Reinstatement Assessments
18 Comparable Evidence
19 Responsibility
Subject to clauses 1.3 & 16 in the valuation, our valuation is confidential to the party to
whom it is addressed for the stated purpose and no responsibility is accepted to any third
party for the whole or any part of its contents. Responsibility will not subsequently be
extended to any other party save on the basis of written and agreed instructions; this may
incur an additional fee.
20 Regulated Purpose Valuations (RPV)
The RICS has established particular requirements in circumstances where a valuation although
provided for a client may also be of use to third parties, for instance, the shareholders in a
company, defined by the RICS as “Regulated Purpose Valuations”. Where a valuation is for a
Regulated Purpose, in accordance with RICS requirements, King Sturge shall state the
following in its report:
The length of time the valuer has continuously been the signatory to valuations provided to the
client for the same purpose as the Report, together with the length of time King Sturge has
continuously been carrying out the valuation instruction for the client.
If our opinion of value is disclosed to persons other than the addressees of our report, the
basis of valuation should be stated. Neither the whole or any part of the valuation report
nor any reference thereto may be included in any published document, circular or
statement nor published in any way without our prior written approval of the form and
context in which it may appear, excluding the mentioned above, clauses 1.3 & 16 in the
valuation.
22 Complaints Procedure
In accordance with the requirements of the RICS a copy of our complaints procedure is
available on request.
23 Jurisdiction
English law shall apply in every respect in relation to the valuation and the agreement
with the client which shall be deemed to have been made in England. In the event of a
dispute arising in connection with a valuation, unless expressly agreed otherwise in
writing by King Sturge, the client, and any third party using the valuation, all will submit
to the jurisdiction of the English Courts only. This will apply wherever the property or
the client is located or the advice is provided.
Valuation Bases
Valuations based on Market Value shall adopt the definition, and the interpretive commentary,
settled by the International Valuation Standards Committee.
The estimated amount for which a property should exchange on the date of valuation between
a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm’s-length transaction after proper marketing
wherein the parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without compulsion.
Existing Use Value is the estimated amount for which a property should exchange on the date
of valuation based on continuation of its existing use, but assuming the property is
unoccupied, between a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm’s-length transaction after
proper marketing wherein the parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without
compulsion.
Market Value shall mean the price at which land and buildings could be sold under private
contract between a willing seller and an arm’s-length buyer on the date of valuation, it being
assumed that the property is publicly exposed to the market, that market conditions permit
orderly disposal and that normal period having regard to the nature of the property, is
available for the negotiation of the sale (91/647/EEC).
Market Rental Value is the estimated rent for which a property should exchange on the date of
valuation between a willing lessee and a willing lessor in an arm’s-length transaction after
proper marketing wherein the parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without
compulsion.
APPENDIX 7
HUNGARIAN RETAIL MARKET 2006/ 7
OVERVIEW
Retail spending in Hungary remained robust in 2006 despite the mid-year political unrest and
increased taxes introduced as part of the convergence package. Total retail spending during
the first 10 months of 2006 increased by 6.8% over 2005. Furthermore sales were up slightly
over the previous year during the 2006 Christmas season, in spite of the fact that everyone
expected a downturn. No new shopping centers opened in Budapest in 2006, though
construction commenced on several which will be delivered in 2007 and 2008. ECE opened
its third Hungarian shopping center in November 2006 in the city of Gy r. The 36,000 sqm
GLA development was fully let to strong local and international tenants including ZARA,
H&M, Media Markt and Hervis. Openings of strip malls and smaller format hypermarkets
continued to grow rapidly in Budapest and regional towns. The renovation of numerous
landmark buildings and the upgrading and creation of new pedestrian streets – together with
increased parking facilities – are all leading to a general rebirth of traditional downtown
Budapest, making it much more attractive for retailing.
SHOPPING CENTERS
Budapest
Over the past two years there has been renewed investor interest in developing traditional
shopping center schemes in and around Budapest, where only small neighborhood strip malls
have opened in the past several years. The bulk of Budapest’s shopping center supply was
delivered between 1996 and 2001, resulting in market saturation. Growing affluence and
accelerated growth in retail spending is making Hungary increasingly attractive to the many
international brands not yet present in the market. Recent market entrants include the Inditex
Group’s entire range of stores (Pull and Bear, Stradivarius, Bershka, etc.), Peek and
Cloppenburg, Intersport and Calvin Klein, among others. Smaller than optimal unit sizes and
full occupancy in the major shopping centers make it very difficult for new entrants to procure
suitable premises. Tenant turnover in the best three shopping centers in Budapest – still
considered to be West End City Center, Mammut and Árkád – is quite low, which puts
upward pressure on rents for new leases and the amount of key money necessary to secure a
good location. Key money paid for units in Mammut and Arkád is generally between EUR
150,000 and EUR 400,000, depending on size, location and the new rental level. Due to the
high rents and the preponderance of small footprint retail units in the better sections of West
End, turnover here is lower and the key money paid is slightly less, generally between
EUR100,000 and EUR 250,000. Many new tenants opening along the secondary corridors of
West End have not been able to generate the necessary footfall to give satisfactory sales. In all
three centers, the management is now displaying greater authority in controlling transfers of
leasing rights, allowing only those retailers to enter which will enhance the center’s tenant
mix or providing new tenants with stronger covenants at higher rent levels. This has resulted
in lower key monies being paid today than several years ago. To maintain or increase footfall,
all of the first generation centers in Budapest desperately need to address the issue of
combining small units and offering them at lower average rents to attract stronger retail
brands that are now entering the market, such as ZARA, H&M and P+C.
Vacancy rates are decreasing and rents are increasing in some secondary shopping centers
where improved management has succeeded in increasing footfall and sales per sqm. This is
most noticeable at Campona which attracted major brands including C+A, H+M, Electro
World, Hervis, Douglas and Promod in 2006 to fill spaces left vacant by the departure of
Debenhams, Match and Giacomelli Sport during the past few years. At Campona the vacancy
rate has come down from over 20% to less than 5% and tenants that had been paying only
turnover rent are being forced to either sign longer term leases with a fixed minimum rent or
move out. MOM Park has also started to attract stronger brands with Promod and Gant
signing leases at the end of 2006.
Rent
Project Opened sqm Tenants
€/sqm/m
Match, Saturn, Hervis, Marks & Spencer, Mexx, Springfield, Benetton
1 Mammut I + II 1998 / 50 (100 sqm)
52200 ProMod, Douglas, Deichmann, Libri, Gold’s Gym, Jeans Club, many
(Budapest, II District) 2001 28 (500 sqm)
restaurants, 13-screen Palace multiplex, 24 lane bowling
Match, Media Markt, C&A, Mango, Marks & Spencer, Salamander,
2 Westend City Center
1999 50000 115 (500 sqm) GAS, Douglas, New Yorker, Next, Promod, Springfield, Jeans Club,
(Budapest, VI District)
14-screen Palace multiplex, bowling,TGIF, Leroy’s
45,000 Interspar, Media Markt, Zara, C & A, Hervis, Libri, Douglas, Retro,
3 ECE Örs Vezér Arkád 38 (100 sqm)
2002 (13,000 Reserved, ProMod,Springfield, Esprit, Mexx, Deichmann, Humanic,
(Budapest X District) 24 (500 sqm)
ext) Griff Gentleman, Marks+Spencer,Vision Express
Tesco, Office Depot, C & A, Media Markt, Hervis, Libri, Humanic,
4 Pólus Center 36 (100 sqm)
1996 43500 New Yorker, DM, 10 screen Palace multiplex, ice skating, bowling,
(Budapest XV District) 22 (500 sqm)
fitness
Tesco,Tropicarium,H & M, C & A, Hervis, Elektro World, Humanic,
5 Campona (Budapest 40,000 20 (100 sqm)
1999 Jeans Club, Reserved, Springfield, Libri, Douglas, 12 screen Palace
XXII) (not Teso) 12 (500 sqm)
muliplex, Leroy’s, Bowling
Max Supermarket, Alexandra, Humanic, Diego, Office Depot,
6 Lurdy Ház (Budapest 22 (100 sqm)
1998 32000 Blombergs, 11 screen Palace multiplex, Pizza Hut, McDonald’s, large
IX) 10 (500 sqm)
fitness
Match, Humanic, Fotex Records, Electropont, Domus, Alexandra,
7 Duna Plaza (Budapest 38 (100 sqm)
1996 30000 Promod, Mango, Marks + Spencer, 11screen Intercom multiplex,
XIII) 24 (500 sqm)
bowling, fitness
Rent
Project Opened sqm Tenants
€/sqm/m
Match, Alexandra, Deichmann, Levi’s, Mexx, C&A, Betty Barclay,
8 MOM Park (Budapest 38 (100 sqm)
2001 29000 Promod, Gant, Azúr, Domus, 10 screen Palace multiplex, Pauliner
XII) 24 (500 sqm)
brewery and many restaurant
9 Auchan Dunakeszi 16 (100 sqm) Largest Auchan 20,500 sqm, 8,500 sqm mall w/Humanic, Promod,
2002 29000
(Dunakeszi) 12 (500 sqm) Orsay. Paris,Boutique, Retz furniture
10 Auchan Budaörs 16 (100 sqm) 19,000 sqm Auchan with 8,000 sqm mall w/Seaside, Deichman, Takko,
1998 27000
(Budaörs) 12 (500 sqm) Pizza Hut
12 (100 sqm) 9 19,000 sqm hypermarket with 7,000 sqm mall w/ Reno, Chicco, Götz,
11 Cora Fót (Fót) 1997 26000
(500 sqm) various furniture shops
12 Tesco Budaörs 18 (100 sqm) 20,000 sqm Tesco, 5,300 sqm Mall w/Fressnapf, Humanic, Marianaud,
1999 25250
(Törökbálint) 12 (500 sqm) Photo Hall
13 Sayova Park 26 (100 sqm) Auchan, Deichmann,Takko, Kenguru, New Yorker, AbOriginal,
2004 25000
(Budapest XI) 14 (500 sqm) Intimissimi/Calzedonia, Seaside Sports, Fitness and Kid’s Play Area
24,500
14 Europark (Budapest 30 (100 sqm) Interspar, Media Markt, Hervis, DM, New Yorker, Libri, Griff
1997 (15,000
XVIII) 16 (500 sqm) Gentleman, Gas, Jeans Club. Pizza Hut/KFC, McDonalds
ext)
15 Eurocenter 24 (100 sqm) Interspar, Euronics, DM, Orsay, Leonardo, Alexandra, 7 screen Palace
2000 21000
(Budapest III) 12 (500 sqm) multiplex, Fitness, MKB bank, OTP bank
Match, Azúr, Aranypók, Fanatique, Electropont, Libri, Dr. Jeans, CIB,
1980 24 (100 sqm)
16 Sugár 20500 OTP+ Raifeissen Banks, Post Office (2nd floor incl multiplex, bowling,
(2007) 16 (500 sqm)
casino, restaurants will open by Spring 2007)
18 (100 sqm) C+A, Kenguru Gold, Deichman Jysk, Lira + Lant, Inku, DM, S. Oliver,
17 Buy-Way Dunakeszi 2006 19500
11 (500 sqm) Mustang
18 Auchan Soroksár 16 (100 sqm) Auchan 11,500 sqm, 7,500 sqm mall (Leonardo, Kenguru, Photohall,
2000 18500
(Budapest) 12 (500 sqm) Sony)
17,000
19 Premier Outlet 26 (100 sqm) Benetton, Calvin Klein,Mexx, Helly Hansen, Nike, Adidas, Mango,
2004 (9,000
Center (Phase 1+2) 16 (500 sqm) Sarar,Levis, Mustang, Roland, Strenesse, Möve Fratanna
ext)
20 (100 sqm) AbOriginal, Retro, McGill, Energie/Miss Sixty, Calzedonia/
20 GL Outlet Center 2004 16000
12 (500 sqm) Intimissimi, Helwet Packard
16 (100 sqm) Media Markt, C&A, Kaiser’s, DM, Fressnapf, Mountex, Kenguru Gold,
21 Stop.Shop Óbuda 2003 15000
10 (500 sqm) Goldenland menswear, Pirex, HVB bank
23 Csepel Plaza 26 (100 sqm) Humanic, Leonardo,Vision Express, Match, AbOriginal, Alexandra,
1997 14700
(District XXII.) 16 (500 sqm) More, Schlecker, 7 screen Israeli Multiplex, Fitness
It is clear that the supply/demand curve has shifted and numerous shopping center projects are
now in the pipeline, guaranteeing increased market opportunities and activity over the next
few years. In 2006 construction commenced on the much delayed Arena Plaza, near the Keleti
Railway station, which is scheduled to open in late fall 2007. While the project lacks a direct
metro connection and a direct residential catchment area, demand for space in the center has
proven to be strong, as it is the only new center in Budapest available for occupancy in the
next two years. Achievable rents appear to be considerably higher than in the much better
located Arkád and Mammut shopping centers. ZARA and affiliated Inditex companies have
signed for approximately 7,000 sqm on the ground floor despite strong lobbying by ECE for
space in their center’s extension, that they have planned for 2009. Peek and Cloppenburg,
TESCO, Hervis Sports and a 20-screen multiplex together with Hungary’s first IMAX
cinema, round off the anchor tenant mix, and many major fashion retailers are following their
lead, even though most have well trading shops in Arkád which is located slightly over 3 km
away.
Construction on three other large shopping centers is scheduled to commence during 2007,
ING’s project in the downtown district XI, at the site of the former Budai Skala department
store, Futoreal’s Corvin Sétány in district VIII, (part of Hungary’s largest and most important
urban redevelopment projects) and KÖKI, located at the terminus of the third metro line with
direct access from both directions of the airport express road. Work on a smaller commercial
center (approximately 20,000 sqm retail GLA) in the main commercial area of Budapest’s
district XVII will commence in the summer of 2007 and open in the fall 2008. This is a
growing suburban area with a severe lack of retail facilities.
4 Corvin Sétány
(District XIX.) Futureal 2010 Q3 35,000 160
REGIONAL CITIES
ECE was successful in bringing most of the major international retail tenants from their
Budapest centers to their new, two-level 36,000 sqm GLA shopping center built near
downtown Gy r, an affluent county administrative center, located halfway between Budapest
and Vienna. The center opened one month before Christmas last year, registering strong
footfall figures, and is gradually establishing a firm customer base. ECE will commence
construction this spring on Debrecen Arkád in eastern Hungary, with the project scheduled to
open in fall 2008, and the company is also finalizing plans for a shopping center in Szeged,
close to the Romanian boarder.
Well-connected local developers and some new international players are planning to develop
smaller shopping centers with GLAs of between 10,000 sqm and 20,000 sqm in several
smaller, but still important, regional cities in Hungary. In Nyiregyháza, close to the Ukrainian
border, construction has begun on a dual-section 4-level shopping center located at one end of
the Downtown pedestrian zone. Tenant response has been extremely positive with nearly 70%
of the 18,000 sqm sales are already pre-let, well in advance of the scheduled opening of
spring 2008. Planning is now being finalized for the extremely well located Magellan
Shopping Center in Downtown Szombathely. Response from tenants has been extremely
strong for its 15,000 sqm GLA, and handover is scheduled for fall 2008. Smaller centers are
also being marketed and nearing completion in downtown Eger and Tatabánya. Developers
are evaluating and assembling strong downtown sites for traditional shopping centers in other
regional cities including: Miskolc, Szolnok and Sopron. This second wave of shopping center
development in the larger cities with populations over 70,000 should be completed by 2010–
2011.
Development of smaller neighbourhood strip malls with 4,000 to 6,000 sqm GLA is
flourishing throughout the country with supermarket or discount store-anchored schemes
along the American model sprouting up in almost all towns or neighbourhoods with
populations of 10,000 or more. In Budapest and the larger urban areas, some of the larger strip
malls are catering to the local community by integrating a big box tenant mix, i.e. home
furnishings and electronics retailers, with small hypermarkets. Complementing the offer they
also have fashion and service retailers. Examples include CBA’s 13,000 sqm K bánya-
Újhegy and Israeli Sybil Holding’s 16,000 sqm Újbuda Center, which opened in 2006 and
AIG’s 44,000 sqm Market Central project. Market Central is an efficient, horseshoe-shaped
strip mall across from Ferihegy airport.
It is scheduled to open in Q4 2007. Given its critical mass and the strength of anchors
including Tesco, Praktiker, Elektroworld, Hervis Sport, C+A and a KFC/Pizza Hut drive-thru,
several specialty fashion brands are considering opening stores here. In neighbouring Austria,
with a population similar to that of Hungary, there are over 150 strip mall type centers, while
in Hungary, there will only be slightly over 50 by the end of 2007.
SHOPPING CENTRE AND HYPERMARKETS - BUDAPEST
Tesco
Auchan
Interspa
Cora
Shopping Centres
Pipeline shopping cnetres
HIGH STREET
Probably the most exiting and dramatic change to retail supply and shopping patterns in
Budapest over the next four years will be the addition of over 60,000 sqm of modern high
street retail space in Downtown Pest districts V, VI and VII. Renovation work is now
proceeding on numerous historical, derelict and obsolete buildings in the city center to
convert them to mixed-use office, hotel or residential schemes, with retail space on the lower
floors. Examples of such projects include Gozsdú Udvar in District VII, Palazzo Dorottya, the
former stock exchange building, and Klothild Palace along the prime Váci utca area, and the
Paris Department store and the former Ballet Institute on Andrássy út. Even on Blaha Lujza
tér, redevelopment store, together with the lower floors of adjacent convention center will
bring over 12,000 sqm of new retail space to the market by 2009, in a neighborhood recently
transformed by the opening of two luxury 5-star hotels (the New York Palace and the Royal
Hotel). Adding strength to this movement is the increasing trend of middle- and upper-income
individuals to move back into downtown areas, and the increased availability of parking in
new underground and multi-level car parks Nearly 3,000 quality apartment units will be
handed over between 2006 and 2008 in the core central Pest districts. The local district
councils also appear to be focusing more on improving quality of life in the city center by
creating pedestrianized streets, and by renovating or creating parks and public areas. The area
on and around Vörösmarty tér and Andrássy út between Deák tér and Oktogon will witness
the greatest transformation in the city over the next two years. ING’s long awaited
development on Vörösmarty tér will be completed by the end of 2007 with New Yorker,
Hennes and Mautitz and Pull and Bear opening multi-level flagship stores in over 7,000 sqm
of retail space. In a landmark decision, permission has finally been obtained to transform the
historic Luxus department store into modern retail premises and Inditex Group’s Stradivarius
and Bershka will open flagship stores there by fall 2007. Work has begun on the
refurbishment of both the Vigado building and Palazzo Dorottya, on the soon-to-be
pedestrianized Dorottya utca, where a total of 8,000 sqm of retail space will be delivered in
2008.
Orco, meanwhile, is finalizing plans for its prize acquisition, the Stock Exchange Palace, and
is considering both retail and leisure uses for the entirety of the 17,000 sqm building. Local
development group Immobilia has succeeded in obtaining ownership of the entire southern
side of Deák Sétány, from Bécsi utca around to Fehérhajó utca, and will develop the lower
floors into a contiguous retail esplanade of about 10,000 sqm under one management. Joining
Hugo Boss and Max Mara in 2007 will be the first Hungarian restaurant from the succesful
Vapiano chain, a Benetton/Sisley flagship, Puma, Mexx and Tommy Hilfiger.
Many historic palaces on Andrássy út between Octogon and Deák tér have been privatized
recently, or at least the ground floors have been sold to serious investors that have intention of
restoring them to their former glory. Currently at least 6 buildings are hidden behind
scaffolding and are being renovated. Orco is finalizing plans for its Párizsi Divatcsarnok gem,
where there will be at least two levels of retail. It seems increasingly likely that the former
Ballet Institute across from the National Opera will finally be sold this year and completely
refurbished, with exceptional retail spaces available on the lower floors. The opening of Louis
Vuitton in Summer, 2006 across from the Opera near Emergliano Zegna, Nespresso,
Mandarina Duck and Omega brand stores solidified Andrássy as the destination for luxury
and specialty retail, in an area already popular for its many theatres and quality restaurants.
This has acted as a catalyst with forward lease contracts being signed with several top branded
retail chains for opening in late 2007 and early 2008. When these names are formally
announced, it is just a matter of time before other major international brands follow.
Due to strong tenant demand, rents in almost all of the better shopping centers are rising
gradually. Due to increased supply in the Váci utca/Vörösmarty tér area rents here are
expected to remain steady for the next few years. Andrássy út has witnessed the strongest
rental growth over the past 5 years, increasing by an average of 10% annually. This is why
investment yields for prime Andrássy retail units are currently among the lowest in the city,
averaging between 5.5–6%.