Rwanda Livestock Master Plan

Developed by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)

Livestock Master Plan (LMP) team
Dr. Barry I Shapiro, Team Leader and Dr. Getachew Gebru,
Dr. Solomon Desta and Mr. Kidus Nigussie

August 20, 2017

The Rwanda Livestock Master Plan (R-LMP) was prepared by the International Livestock
Research Institute (ILRI), with input from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources
(MINAGRI) and Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) of The Republic of Rwanda, as well as other
Rwandan livestock experts. The study was funded by the United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO).

II
Acknowledgments

Many Individuals, institutions and agencies in Rwanda contributed to the realization of this
plan. It was developed under the auspices of H.E. Dr. Geraldine Mukeshimana, Minister of
Agriculture, MINAGRI, Government of Rwanda, with oversight provided by Dr. Theogen
Rutagwenda, Director General, Animal Resources, MINAGRI. The work of the ILRI LMP team
was assisted the Rwandan livestock experts who participated in the expert consultation
meetings, provided data and technical advice and validated the results of the livestock sector
analysis (LSA). Most particularly the support and guidance provided by Dr. Theogen
Rutagwenda and Mr. Otto Muhinda, Assistant Country Representative, FAO-Rwanda helped to
bring the LMP to fruition.

The ILRI LMP team would like to acknowledge the African Partnership for Livestock
Development (Alive) group, the African Union inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-
IBAR), and the specialists from the Centre de cooperation international en recherché
agronomique pour le development (CIRAD), the World Bank, FAO, and ILRI who have developed
the set of analytical tools employed in this report: the Livestock Sector Investment and Policy
Toolkit (LSIPT) and the Livestock Master Plan tools. The ILRI LMP team used these tools to
produce the Rwanda Livestock Sector Analysis and Livestock Master Plan.

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Table of Contents
Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................ III
Rwanda LMP Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 1
Rwanda LMP Introduction and Context.................................................................................. 8
Rwanda LSA Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 16
Dairy value chain development roadmap (2017/18 – 2021/22) ............................................ 24
Vision............................................................................................................................... 24
Overall Targets under the recommended level of investment scenario (RLI) ...................... 24
Improved Family Dairy (IFD) under RLI.............................................................................. 29
Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD) Production under RLI ................................................. 43
Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 48
Red meat VC development roadmap (2017/18 – 2021/22) ................................................... 51
Vision............................................................................................................................... 51
Overall targets under the recommended level of investment scenario (RLI) ....................... 52
Improved Traditional Cattle, Sheep and Goat ................................................................... 55
Specialized cattle feedlots and culled dairy cattle ............................................................. 65
Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 72
Chicken value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) ........................................... 75
Vision............................................................................................................................... 75
Overall Targets under the Recommended Level of Investment Scenario (RLI) .................... 76
The improved Traditional Family Chicken (ITFC) and Crossbreed Family Chicken (CFC) sub-
systems (20167/17-2021/22) ............................................................................................ 76
Specialized commercial chicken production (2016/17-2021/22) ........................................ 81
Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 100
Pork value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) .............................................. 103
Vision............................................................................................................................. 103
Overall Target under the recommended level of investment (RLI) scenario ...................... 103
Modernizing the semi-intensive mixed family pig production system (IFP) ...................... 103
Expanding Commercial Specialized Piglet fattening systems (CSP) RLI scenario ............... 106
Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 116

IV
List of tables and figures
Table 1: Percent (%) change in overall national production and contribution to GDP between
BAU and the RLI and MLI scenarios in 2021/22.............................................................................. 4
Table 2: Total investment cost required to carry out the recommended Rwanda LMP roadmap 5
Table 3: Species based traditional livestock production systems, herd/flock and specialized .... 12
Table 4: Percent (%) change in production and GDP between BAU and the “with case”, 2031/32
....................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table 5 Current and projected number of crossbreed cattle at national and by production
system/zone under RLI ................................................................................................................. 25
Table 6. Current and projected milk production in Rwanda at national level and by production
zone/system .................................................................................................................................. 26
Table 7 Annualized milk productivity of cows in Meat-Milk, IFD and CSD systems (liters per year)
....................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table 8 Current and projected GDP contribution of milk in Rwanda at national level and by
production zone/system ............................................................................................................... 27
Table 9: Key challenges and strategies related to IFD: ................................................................. 29
Table 10. Five year dairy improvement investment capital costs (2017/18 – 2021/22) ............. 35
Table 11. Total investment and share of dairy improvement investment costs from public and
private sources .............................................................................................................................. 40
Table 12: Activities time line and sequencing: Gantt chart under RLI ......................................... 41
Table 13: Key challenges and strategies related to CSD under RLI .............................................. 44
Table 14. Milk production and GDP contribution at three investment level scenarios by 2021/22
....................................................................................................................................................... 47
Table 15. Five year dairy improvement investment capital costs under the MLI scenario (half the
investment of the RLI scenario) .................................................................................................... 48
Table 16: Annual increase in number of cattle RLI ...................................................................... 52
Table 17: Annual increase in number of sheep and goats in the traditional system under RLI.. 53
Table 18: Contribution of cattle to national red meat production (in tonnes) under RLI ........... 53
Table 19: Contribution of cattle Feedlot and dairy sub sector to national red meat production
(in tonnes) ..................................................................................................................................... 53
Table 20: Contribution of Sheep and Goat meat to national red meat production (in tonnes)
under RLI ....................................................................................................................................... 54
Table 21: Key challenges and interventions related to improving red meat VC under the RLI
scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 55
Table 22: Five-year Red Meat production improvement investment costs for RLI, the
recommended investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) .......................................................... 59
Table 23:Total investment and recurrent costs for red meat VC development under RLI .......... 61
Table 24: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for
improving the red meat VC under RLI .......................................................................................... 61
Table 25: Change in red meat production from cattle, sheep and goats under RLI (in tonnes) .. 62
Table 26: Red meat production from local and crossbred cattle by system and typology zone for
the baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with the RLI intervention (in tonnes) ........................ 62
Table 27: GDP contribution from red meat improvement under RLI (in RWF millions) .............. 63

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Table 28: Cattle GDP for baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with red meat intervention in all
zones and systems (in RWF 000,000) under RLI ........................................................................... 63
Table 29: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI........................................................ 64
Table 30: Contribution of the cattle feedlot system to national meat production (in tonnes)
under RLI ....................................................................................................................................... 65
Table 31: Contribution of the dairy production system to national meat production (in tonnes)
....................................................................................................................................................... 65
Table 32: Challenges and interventions in the specialized systems under RLI ............................ 66
Table 33: Projected number of cattle fattened under RLI ............................................................ 67
Table 34: Estimated amount of additional concentrate feed needed for additional cattle going
to feedlot by the year 2021/22 under RLI .................................................................................... 67
Table 35: Investment in slaughter house establishment under RLI ............................................. 68
Table 36: Change in meat production from cattle feedlots (2016/17 to 2021/22) with feedlot
intervention under RLI .................................................................................................................. 68
Table 37: Change in Livestock GDP due to interventions on cattle feedlots under RLI ............... 68
Table 38: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI........................................................ 69
Table 39: Rwanda red meat production under BAU and MLI (2021/22) ..................................... 70
Table 40: Rwanda red meat value added or GDP impacts under BAU and MLI (2021/22).......... 70
Table 41: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart MLI ...................................................... 70
Table 42: Total investment and recurrent costs for red meat production under MLI ................. 71
Table 43: Number of hens and chicken eggs and meat production in ITFC and CFC 2016/17-
2021/22 (RLI)................................................................................................................................. 76
Table 44: Key challenges and interventions related to improving the family systems (ITFC and
CFC) under the RLI......................................................................................................................... 77
Table 45: Changes in GDP contribution of improved family chicken (RLI) .................................. 80
Table 46: Number of chicken and chicken meat production in SP chicken subsystems (RLI) ..... 81
Table 47: Egg production from specialized layers (RLI) ............................................................... 81
Table 48: Commercial layer and broiler projected population at national level (RLI) ................. 81
Table 49: GDP contribution from commercial specialized chicken system 2016/17 and 2021/22
(RLI) ............................................................................................................................................... 82
Table 50: Total chicken meat and eggs production with additional investment RLI .................. 83
Table 51: Total chicken meat and eggs production GDP contribution with additional investment
RLI .................................................................................................................................................. 83
Table 52: Per capita availability of eggs and chicken meat RLI .................................................... 84
Table 53: Rwanda chicken meat production under BAU and RLI scenario (2021/22) ................. 84
Table 54: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI ................................... 84
Table 55: Five-year Chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs for RLI,
the recommended investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) .................................................... 87
Table 56:Total investment and recurrent costs for chicken meat and egg production VC
development under RLI................................................................................................................. 91
Table 57: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for
improving the chicken meat and egg production VC under RLI ................................................... 91
Table 58: Rwanda chicken meat production under BAU and MLI (2021/22)............................... 93
Table 59: Rwanda chicken meat value added or GDP impacts under BAU and MLI (2021/22) ... 93

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Table 60: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart for MLI scenario ............. 94
Table 61: Five-year Chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs under
medium investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22)..................................................................... 97
Table 62: MLI and RLI production and GDP comparison ............................................................ 101
Table 63: Number of sows and tonnes of pork in improved family mixed (IFP) pig subsystems
(RLI scenario)............................................................................................................................... 103
Table 64: Key Challenges and Interventions related to the recommended level of investment
(RLI) to improve family pig system (IFP) ..................................................................................... 104
Table 65: Pig meat production and GDP contribution family system (RLI) ................................ 106
Table 66: Population growth of piglets fattening and meat production RLI ............................. 106
Table 67: Total pig meat production under RLI ......................................................................... 107
Table 68: Total GDP contribution Family (IFP) and Commercial/Specialized Pig (CSP) under RLI
..................................................................................................................................................... 107
Table 69: Activity Sequencing (Gantt chart) under RLI ............................................................... 108
Table 70: Five year pig/pork production improvement recommended level of investment costs
scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) RLI............................................................................................... 109
Table 71:Total investment and recurrent costs for pig production VC development under RLI 111
Table 72: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for
improving the pig production VC under RLI ............................................................................... 111
Table 73: Rwanda total pig meat production and GDP contribution under BAU and MLI scenario
(2021/22) .................................................................................................................................... 113
Table 74: Activity sequencing Gantt chart under MLI ................................................................ 113
Table 75: Five year pig/pork production improvement investment costs under medium
investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) MLI .......................................................................... 115
Table 76: MLI and RLI production and GDP comparison 2021/22 ............................................. 116

Figure 1: Diagram showing the different modules and sub-modules of LSIPT ........................... 14

VII
Rwanda LMP Executive Summary
The LMP sets out the investment interventions—better genetics, feed and health services,
which, together with complementary policy support—which could help meet the national
development plan targets of Rwanda by improving productivity and total production in the key
livestock value chains for cow dairy, red meat-milk, poultry, and pork. If the proposed
investments—of about USD 287 million over the 5-year LMP period—47% from the public
sector and 53% from private sector investors—were successfully implemented, the resulting
further modernization of the sector has the potential to have a substantial positively impact on
livestock keepers by increasing their incomes and the food and nutritional security of their
households. The success of the LMP is critical to the achievement of food security at the
sectorial and national levels.

Beyond these positive impacts on rural people, the anticipated transformation of the livestock
sector has the potential to impact positively on urban consumers through more and better
quality animal source foods and lower animal product prices. The success of the LMP is critical
to the achievement of food and nutrition security at household, sectorial and national levels.

Development of the LMP

The LSA and LMP interventions, based on investment scenarios related to productivity
enhancing technologies and improved policies developed or identified by livestock experts of
MINAGRI, RAB, and other research institutes and universities in Rwanda were tested in
accordance with the Rwandan national development objectives:
 Reduce poverty
 Achieve food and nutritional security
 Contribute to economic growth
 Contribute to exports and foreign exchange earnings
 Contribute to industrialization and employment
 Mitigate livestock’s contribution to GHG emissions

Using measurable economic or environmental indicators for the above objectives, four key
livestock value chains—live animals and red meat and milk (from indigenous cattle, sheep, and
goats), dairy with crossbred cows, and chicken and pigs—were identified in the LSA as
producing the greatest productivity increases contributing to national economic development
objectives and the long-run development of the sector. The LMP, moreover, comprises two
sub-value chains: smallholder family and commercial specialized production systems. These
sub-value chains are found in one or more of the four major production typology zones of
Tanzania: central; coastal and lake; highlands; and commercial specialized dairy. The rigorous
ex-ante technical and financial analysis conducted of alternative intervention options
(investment scenarios) carried out in the LMP is thus a guide to the choice and prioritization of
public and private investments with the highest payoffs for livestock sector transformation.

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LMP Commodity Value Chains: Rwanda
Based on results of the LSA analysis, to reach the objectives and goals of the GoR, the key VCs
targeted in the LMP roadmaps are:

1. Cow dairy
 Improved family dairy
 Commercial specialized dairy

2. Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, and goats

 Improved traditional red meat-milk
 Ranches
 Specialised feedlots

3. Chicken meat and eggs

 Improved family chicken
 commercial specialized chicken (layers and broilers)

4. Pork
 Improved traditional system (semi-scavenging or stall fed)
 Commercial specialized piglet fattening

Key results

Cow dairy VC development

The projected increase in national cow milk production as a result of the proposed
interventions—due to an increase in crossbred and pure exotic cows, including through artificial
insemination and synchronization, combined with improved feed and health interventions,
value addition and complementary policy changes—during the LMP period (2016/17–2021/22)
is 2.2 billion liters of milk, an 18.2% increase in milk production over the BAU investment level
given the RLI scenario. The crossbred dairy cow herd increases by 46%, milk production by 65%,
and contribution to GDP by 53%, while improving the processing and marketing of dairy
products. This additional milk production could then be substituted for imported milk products
and used domestically for new or additional industrial uses (e.g. in the baking industry), or
exported as milk powder UHT or casein milk protein to raise foreign exchange earnings.

Red meat VC development

Under the RLI, the increases in red meat production from cattle, sheep and goats from 2016/17
(the baseline year) to 2021/22 is 32%, 33%, and 50 %, respectively. Cattle (72%) and goats
(23%) are the primary sources of red meat in 2021/22. Total red meat grows from 58,579
tonnes in 2016/17 to 79,586 tonnes in 2021/22, an increase by 36%. Under RLI the GDP
contribution from red meat coming from cattle, sheep and goats from all production zones
shows an overall increase by 26% compared to the base year with the 2021/22 projection. The

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GDP contribution of red meat coming from cattle from all production zones and systems shows
an overall increase by 19% comparing the base year with the 2021/22 projection.

The negative change in production of meat from local cattle breeds is negative 19% and big
positive production change in crossbreds in all the production zones is 47%, with similar
increases and decreased in meat production from crosses and locals, respectively. This
negative change in meat production from local breeds is expected due to the population
decreases of local cattle breeds as they are replaced by the crosses or pure exotic breeds. The
Girinka program or “One Cow per Family Program” of MINAGRI is transforming dairying and
meat production in Rwanda, through the provision of pregnant crossbred cows to smallholders.
As well, the number of cattle going through the feedlot fattening system for meat production is
expected to increase rapidly, partly as a result of the government’s Gako program which is
seeking to improve the meat breeds in Rwanda, especially with Ankole cattle.

Due to extremely limited access to land for grazing and feed production, and limited ability to
enhance the genetic potential of local ruminant breeds in the medium-term, it is unlikely the
red meat production gap can be closed in the next five years.

Chicken VC development
Successful poultry interventions would allow the poultry sub-sector to move to improved family
poultry with semi-scavenging crossbreds and for substantial increases in the scale of specialized
layer and broiler operations. Such a transformation—depending on successful interventions in
the areas of breed selection, health services, particularly in treating Newcastle disease, feed,
extension, private investment and trade policies—would contribute considerably to improving
food and nutrition security and household, as well as increasing the contribution of poultry to
GDP.

The chicken meat and egg production under the RLI scenario show substantial increments,
124% and 110% respectively compared to the base year. The RLI scenario would contribute
significantly to fulfilling the national all meat requirement and would increase per capita egg
consumption for Rwanda to help meet one of the Rwandan national development objectives of
improving food and nutrition security. Under the RLI scenario, although the per capita egg
consumption increases, a significant shortage continues to exist to meeting the FAO
recommended requirement, which is 4.5 kg per person.

Taking advantage of the benefits of the potential poultry revolution would require substantial
investments in promotional activities to change tastes and preferences from beef, as well as
from local to exotic chicken meat and eggs. The substitution of the surplus chicken meat for
domestic red meat consumption would also put downward pressure on domestic meat prices
and enable an increase in the export of live animals (of cattle, sheep, and goat), potentially
raising foreign exchange earnings.

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Pork VC development
The pig meat production and GDP impacts under the RLI scenario show substantial increments,
239% and 214% respectively, compared to the base year. The RLI would contribute significantly
to fulfilling the national all meat requirement and would increase per capita pig meat
consumption for Rwanda enough that it would help to meet the Rwandan national
development objective of improving food and nutrition security.

It should be noted that improving pork meat requires a focus on upon controlling African swine
fever pigs, to increase pig productivity and meat production to help close the projected all-meat
consumption gap projected in 15 years. Industrializing pork production (in large commercial
scale operations and processing for product transformation will lower domestic meat prices,
while enabling an increase in exports and foreign exchange earnings.

Comparison of RLI an MLI

The LSA investment interventions under RLI result in production of 663 thousand MT of meat,
2.2 billion liters of milk, and 1.9 billion eggs which would substantially increase availability of
ASFs in Rwanda to help meet the nutritional requirements of the rapidly growing human
population, expected to reach 16.3 million people in 2031/32.

Compared to the BAU, the MLI impact on meat production and GDP contribution show
significant declines, indicating the MLI would not be warranted before conducting a thorough
financial feasibility analysis, to calculate the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and net present value
(NPV). It is strongly recommended to do a financial feasibility analysis of the MLI scenario
before committing the investment resources, no matter how great the budget constraint may
be to committing to the RLI.

Table 1: Percent (%) change in overall national production and contribution to GDP between
BAU and the RLI and MLI scenarios in 2021/22
BAU MLI/BAU RLI/BAU
GDP in
Livestock Production in RWF Production GDP Production GDP
products tonnes (MT) (10^6) (% change) (% change) (% change) (% change)
Beef 53,729 82,410 3% -4% 7% -5%
Mutton 3,171 5,538 6% 5% 16% 12%
Goat meat 16,050 31,615 5% 4% 15% 11%
Pork 26,665 28,184 70% 76% 154% 135%
Chicken meat 20,589 27,278 35% 15% 40% 71%
Total Meat 120,204 175,025 24% 14% 62% 28%
Milk 1,041 158 4% 0% 18.2% 9.5%
Eggs in million 369.7 16,328 17% 17% 53% 39%
Hides & skins 1,322 624 - - 15% 15%
Organic matter 8,251,268 9,178 - - 7% 57%

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Priority investment and complementary policy interventions
The huge deficit in projected demand (without additional investments at the RLI level) for red
meat is being driven by high human population and urbanization growth, as well as income
growth. Limited access to land for improving feed production, including on grazing lands, and
the low genetic potential of local breeds of cattle and small ruminants are the main constraints
to increased red meat production. That said red meat from small ruminants, especially sheep
will be of little help in closing the meat gap due to their low numbers, limited feed resources
and low genetic potential of indigenous breeds, nor will pork help much unless outbreaks of
African swine fever are controlled effectively.

Total investment in the Rwanda LMP

The total investment costs required to carry out the LMP roadmap are RWF 237,969.7 million.
The proportion of investment from the public and private sectors is 47% (RWF 112,580.85
million) and 53% (RWF 125,388.75 million) respectively.

Table 2: Total investment cost required to carry out the recommended Rwanda LMP roadmap
Total investment cost in million RWF Total Cost in million
Investment interventions
Public Private Total USD
Cow dairy 21,943.1 28,524.5 50,467.7 60.8
Red meat/milk and 130,527
feedlot 73063 57464 157.3
Poultry 16,320 34,680 51,000 61.4
Pork 1254.75 4720.25 5,975 7.2
Total 96,277.17 90,743.43 187,020.7 286.7
*US$ 1 = RWF 830

Key take-away messages

 Investment in poultry has the most potential to close the projected meat consumption gap
and could enable export of ruminant animals and red meat.
 However, domestic consumer preferences for white meat and particularly chicken meat
would need significant investment and effort in promotion to change consumer preferences
for red meat, especially beef and goat meat
 The projected gap in milk demanded could be closed and a surplus produced through AI and
synchronization for breed improvement, combined with feed and health interventions
addressing young and adult stock mortality (YASM)
 Feed is the biggest constraint to animal productivity improvement. Access to land
appropriate for grazing, and land for feed production, needs to be addressed to overcome
the very serious existing feed deficit
 Red meat production cannot be expected to increase much over time and help significantly
to close the projected all-meat production-consumption gap due to the present limited
access to land for feed production and grazing, the need to expand animal health services,
and the low genetic potential of local cattle breeds and small ruminants

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 Small ruminants are also not expected to be help much in closing the meat gap due to their
low numbers, in addition to limited feed resources and low genetic potential of indigenous
breeds
 Pork has potential to help close the projected all-meat production-consumption gap but it is
prone to African Swine Fever requiring improved prevention and control, and its demand is
limited; hence it cannot be a priority solution for closing the meat gap

Priority investment interventions

Various combinations of the three standard types of livestock technology interventions are
needed to generate higher incomes and animal productivity, and to lead to the achievement of
national development objectives: improved genetics, health and feed. The appropriate
combinations, depending upon the biophysical, agro-ecological and market conditions facing
livestock in the four production zones in Tanzania, include:
 Ensuring artificial insemination and synchronization, feed and health interventions
addressing young and adult stock mortality (YASM) to help facilitate a surplus in milk
demanded;
 Targeting animal health interventions for young and adult stock mortality (vaccinations,
parasite control) ensuring improved productivity, thereby increasing animal and product off
take of meat and dairy;
 Prioritizing beef production from on-farm fattening and commercial feedlots as a way of
reducing the red meat deficit;
 Feed is the biggest constraint to animal productivity improvement. Access to land
appropriate for grazing, and land for feed production, needs to be addressed to overcome
the very serious existing feed deficit
 Improving the quality and quantity of livestock feed resources through introducing improved
forage crops and improved animal feed management practices, feed production on irrigated
land, as well as increased access to existing lands appropriate for grazing;

Complementary policy interventions

 Animal health services need to expand dramatically, especially in remote areas where
pastoralists predominate, and PPPs should be tried where private investments are too risky
and the returns are too low;
 Undertaking investments in promotional activities to change tastes and preferences from
beef to white meat, especially chicken;
 Prioritizing investments in genetic improvement by focusing on crossbreds and exotic
chicken pure breeds for both family and commercial enterprises;
 Prioritizing policies creating a conducive environment for investment in commercial meat
and milk production and processing;
 Promoting land allocation and ownership policies which facilitate the investments required
to increase feed for meat, egg and milk production;
 Promoting land leasing, including land under irrigation, for animal and feed production and
providing of tax incentives and subsidized leasing rates to private entrepreneurs;

6
 Promoting exports to more remunerative markets in the region through the introduction of
a practical and affordable system of animal ID and traceability, as well as food safety and
animal health programs through the monitoring of abattoirs and disease surveillance;
 Promoting substantial private investment in livestock product transformation through high
value-added processing; and
 Improving the enabling environment for agribusiness investment through the streamlining
of regulations and procedures in order to attract and maintain substantial levels of private
investment.

7
Rwanda LMP Introduction and Context
In recent years, the government of Rwanda has prioritized the transformation of the
agricultural sector. Due to agro-ecological conditions conducive to intensified livestock
production, and despite very limited land, the livestock sector of Rwanda provides major
opportunities to increase further its contribution to economic growth (Rwanda having already
achieved above 6% annual GDP growth for the last 10 years) while improving incomes to
reduce poverty and improve the nutritional security of many rural people. This potential has
already been proven by the “One cow per family program” that has transformed dairying in
Rwanda, and proven to be the key to sustainably improving vegetable and legume production
on once infertile hillsides by providing ample manure. Recent growth in livestock production
largely reflects significant productivity gains. As well, with rapidly growing population,
increasing urbanization and rising incomes, the demand for meat, milk and eggs is expected to
increase significantly for the foreseeable future.

Still, clear investment roadmaps to further develop the livestock sector could bring even
greater impacts from future sector investment plans. The sector is still constrained by too many
local animals with low reproductive rates, and high morbidity and mortality rates. Detailed
inter-disciplinary livestock sector analysis (the LSA) revealed the potential benefits of a
comprehensive livestock master plan (LMP) for Tanzania.

The Rwanda LMP shared here sets out the investment interventions—better genetics, feed and
health services, which, together with complementary policy support—which could help meet
Rwanda’s national development targets by further improving productivity and total production
in the key livestock value chains for cow dairy, red meat (and milk) from cattle, goats and
sheep, poultry (chicken meat and eggs), and pork. If the proposed investments—of USD 287
million—47% from the public sector and 53% from private sector investors—were successfully
implemented, the anticipated transformation of the sector has the potential to impact
positively on rural livestock keepers by increasing their incomes and food and nutritional
security, and on urban consumers through lower animal product prices. The success of the LMP
investment roadmaps is critical to also making further progress in food security at the sectorial
and national levels.

Development of the LMP

The Rwanda Livestock Master Plan (LMP) was undertaken by the International Livestock
Research Institute (ILRI) with input from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources
(MINAGRI), the Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB), and other research institutes and universities
of The Republic of Rwanda. The study was funded by the Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) to develop an evidence based LMP built on quantitative analysis of the sector.

8
Using available data from secondary sources and national livestock experts, the ILRI LMP team,
with input from Rwanda livestock experts (including from MINAGRI, RAB, other research
institutes and universities, private sector and NGO actors, etc.) developed a national herd and
economic sector model (HESM) and then carried out an assessment of the current state of the
sector to establish a data baseline for 2016/17. Then, with the HESM, the team developed long-
term targets and then did long-term foresight analysis to identify the most promising
investment interventions and policies to arrive at a long-term strategy for livestock
development in Rwanda over 15-years (a Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA)). The LSA also presents
the current status and future potential for poverty reduction and economic growth through the
further modernization of the livestock sector.

The results of the LSA was used, in turn, to guide the preparation of the Rwanda Livestock
Master Plan (LMP) which is a series of five-year investment implementation plans or
‘roadmaps’, to help prepare and implement the next 5-year national development program to
further modernize the Rwandan livestock sector. The LMP will also help realize the
development vision of Rwanda, namely the: Rwanda Development Vision 2025 to 2050
(Ministry of Finance and Economic planning 2016).

This LMP seeks to inform Government of Rwanda (GoR) policymakers, private investors, and
development partners (DPs or donors) involved in livestock development on the priority
livestock commodity value chains and investment interventions (combining technologies and
policies) which could transform the sector through further investment.

The Livestock Master Plan (LMP) is a series of 5-year investment implementation plans or
roadmaps for the key livestock commodity value chains (VC), and production systems within
each value chain, chosen based on the GoR’s priority development objectives. They each
include specific VC visions and targets, challenges and strategies, and the priority combined
technology and policy investment interventions, with expected outputs, outcomes and impacts.
The roadmaps are also fully budgeted, and include timed and sequenced activity plans (Gantt
charts).

To identify the priority combined technology and policy investment interventions for each LMP
roadmap, the impacts of alternative technology and policy investments needed to be assessed
against the agreed upon national development objectives of Rwanda. Indicators for the
objectives were also needed. The following national objectives and indicators were identified
and agreed upon with key Rwandan livestock sector stakeholders. The indicators for these
objectives then became the decision criteria to compare the alternative available investment
interventions (combined technology and policy) and choose the priority investment
interventions in both the LSA and LMP. The objectives and indicators were:

 Reducing poverty (by increasing income per animal and in livestock keeping households)
 Achieving food and nutritional security (by increasing household herd and national
production levels and by also increasing availability of ASFs to meet FAO individual
consumption targets)

9
 Increasing economic growth (by increasing livestock contributions to GDP (or national
income))
 Increasing exports (by increasing production beyond domestic consumption requirements
which improves the potential for export of live animals and livestock products, and
realization of foreign currency)
 Contributing to industrialization and employment (by increasing investment in processing
and other value addition)
 Mitigating climate change (by focusing more on introducing low emitting livestock species
for meat (chicken and pork), and dairy intensification through introduction of higher
productivity crossbreds) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions)

Using the measurable economic or environmental indicators for the above objectives, four key
livestock value chains were identified in the LSA—red meat (and milk) (from indigenous and
crossbred cattle, sheep, and goats), dairy from crossbred cows, chicken and pork—as producing
the greatest potential productivity and production increases in the long run, as well as potential
contributions to national economic development objectives under the recommended levels of
investment, and thus the potential to contribute to the long-run development of the sector.
The LMP, moreover, comprises two types and/or scales of operations for each of these value
chains: smallholder family and commercial specialized production systems. These systems are
complementary in the sense that they support the development of the other so both types are
included in the LMP.

Rwanda LMP priority commodity value chains

Based on results of the LSA analysis, to reach the objectives and goals of the GoR, the key VCs
targeted in the LMP roadmaps are the following, along with the main investment interventions
to improve them and increase their development impact:

1. Cow dairy
 Improved family dairy (IFD): smallholder family dairying practiced in all zones, usually with
1-2 milking cows and improved with crossbreds or exotics, along with improved feed and
health services. IFD is practiced by farmers in mixed crop-livestock production systems, uses
small levels of inputs and results in a moderate level of milk production per cow.
 Commercial specialized dairy (CSD): both the grazing based (i.e., Gishwati) and non-grazing
based or stall fed (all zones) commercial scale specialized dairy production systems with
high level of inputs and high milk productivity or yields. The main LMP intervention is
increasing the number of crossbred and/or exotic cows.

2. Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, and goats

 Improved family red meat-milk (IFRM): these family systems are practiced in all
production zones and the main LMP improvements are in feeding and animal health
(vaccinations and dipping or spraying for parasites), but improvement of local cattle and
goats and crossbreeding is also analyzed.

10
 Ranches: meat production on big commercial farms or ranches practiced in areas
designated for improved ranching systems in the low rainfall production areas (e.g., Gako);
the improvements entailing better feeding, animal health and genetics and better linking to
marketing and slaughter houses
 Cattle specialized fattening or feedlots (CSF) –- using both indigenous breeds and crossbred
males, with the main interventions being to increase the number of animals and production
units, and better linking to marketing and slaughter houses

3. Chicken meat and eggs

 Improved traditional family chicken (IFC): IFC can be practiced all over the country and in
all livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones), using local breeds with
improved productivity through selection, along with health, feed and management
interventions, especially improved brooding, and scavenging or semi-scavenging feeding; or
distribution of higher yielding tropical pure and crossbred chicken to producers.
 Commercial specialized chicken (CSC): scaling up of the commercial chicken broiler and
layer systems and better integration of production units with the upper end of the value
chain.

4. Pork
 Improved traditional family pig system (IFP), both stall fed and semi-scavenging systems:
improvement of the mixed semi scavenging can be practiced in all the livestock production
zones (low, medium and high rainfall and altitude zones); the proposed interventions
involve improving the semi-intensive family mixed production system.
 Commercial specialized piglet fattening system (CSP): the specialized semi-intensive piglet
fattening system can also be practiced in all the livestock production zones (low, medium
and high rainfall and altitude zones); the improvement is intensification and expansion of
the piglet fattening system.

These priority value chains are found in one or more of three major production typology zones
of Rwanda (classified thus to facilitate the sector modelling and model analysis):

In defining the three major production typology zones, rainfall or moisture and altitude are
closely linked with the quantity and type (quality) of forage production and extent of use of
crop residues and other feed supplementation which would impact on the performance of
livestock and delimit the kind of production practices. Hence, the classification or the livestock
production systems into zones helps to capture variability in the productivity performance of
the different livestock species and systems, as well as identify opportunities and constraints
which exist within and across the production zones.

The three livestock production zones used in the Rwanda LSA and LMP are then:

 Low rainfall low altitude livestock production zone (LRLA): 800-1000 mm and 1450 to 1500
meters asl

11
 Medium rainfall medium altitude livestock production zone (MRMA): 1000 – 1400 mm and
1500-1800 meter asl
 High rainfall high altitude livestock production zone (HRHA): 1400 – 1800 mm and >1800
meter asl

The LRLA zone predominantly covers the eastern savanna and the eastern plateau of Rwanda
and the MRMA zone is found predominantly in the central plateau and the HRHA covers the
western highland, Lake Kivu and South West regions.

The livestock production practices whose production methods are modern, and mainly depend
on the procurement of feed from outside the farm are to a large extent independent of the
zonation and are classified as a fourth livestock systems category. These are defined as
specialized commercial production (SP) systems and are analyzed independently due to their
unique modern production characteristics and commercial orientation. They can be found
throughout most of the country and are thus often independent of agroecology (rainfall and
altitude).

The specialized commercial livestock production (SP) systems are classified as follows:
 Dairy Systems (CSD) – specialized grazing and non-grazing based commercial systems, both
using crossbreds and exotic breeds.
 Cattle Fattening Operations (CFS) –- using both indigenous breeds and crossbred males.
 Commercial specialized chicken (CSC) – differentiated into commercial broiler and layer
operations using exotic breeds
 Commercial specialized piglet fattening (CSP) – stall feeding and using crossbreds and
exotic breeds, as well as professional health management

The following priority livestock systems were then classified for the purpose of assessing and
recommending potential system specific technology and policy interventions to modernize and
transform the sector. The lower level systems classifications are species/breed based (cattle,
sheep, goats, chicken and pigs) and associated with herding practices.

Table 3: Species based traditional livestock production systems, herd/flock and specialized
Livestock LRLA MRMA HRHA Specialized
systems by
species
Cattle system Local breed Local breed Local breed Non-grazing
dairy
Family dairy Family dairy Family dairy Grazing dairy
(Cross breed) (Cross breed) (Cross breed)
Family dairy Fattening
(Cross breed)
Sheep system Local Breed Local Breed Local Breed
Cross Breed Cross Breed Cross Breed

12
Livestock LRLA MRMA HRHA Specialized
systems by
species
Goats systems Local Breed Local Breed Local Breed
Cross Breed Cross Breed Cross Breed
Chicken systems Family Family Family Layers
Broilers
Pigs systems Family Family Family Pig fattening

Analysis of Investment scenarios

The rigorous ex-ante technical and financial analysis conducted on alternative investment
intervention options (investment scenarios) carried out in the LMP is meant to be a guide to the
choice and prioritization of public and private investments with the highest payoffs for livestock
sector transformation by system and production zone.

In the investment analysis done to create the LMP roadmaps, two investment scenarios are
usually analyzed, BAU (Business As Usual) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). Here,
three levels of investment and their implications for commodity value chain contributions to
production and GDP are examined to provide three investment choices for the decision makers
in Rwanda; the government, private investors and development partners (donors). These
scenarios are referred to here as BAU (Business As Usual or the base case), MLI (Medium Level
of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). BAU presents the scenario
analysis of the base case to understand the implications of the current level of investment and
spending profile on chicken meat and eggs production and GDP contributions throughout the
LMP period of 5 years. The second, RLI, is the recommended level of investment which could
achieve the agreed upon targets for the national development objectives.

The additional scenario or MLI option analyzes the implications and impacts on production and
GDP of a third option created for investment decision makers who face a budget constraint. It
represents a medium level of investment between the BAU and the RLI option which could
achieve the 3rd year impact of the targets for production and contribution to GDP under the RLI.
For this 3-option analysis, the MLI level of investment was obtained by assuming the RLI option
would only be followed through the 3rd year (see table 1 above) of the 5-year LMP period.

Methodology

LSIPT - Livestock Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit

The ILRI team used LSIPT, the Livestock Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit, to build the herd
and sector model (HESM) to then carry out the analysis to produce the LSA and LMP.

13
Spearheaded by AU-IBAR, LSIPT was developed by livestock experts at CIRAD, FAO and the
World Bank. It had been tested in Mali and Zambia, and is now operational and has been
applied in Ethiopia and Tanzania by the ILRI LMP team and national collaborators from the
ministries of agriculture and/or livestock.

LSIPT integrates micro, meso, and macro analysis for quantitative and qualitative assessment of
household vulnerability, the role of livestock in strategy for poverty reduction, and the
contribution of livestock to the overall economy. It accounts for the multiple functions of
livestock, including: those of cultural importance; the contribution to food security and
nutrition; and the supplier of draught power and manure for soil fertility.

LSIPT provides a systematic framework for organizing accessible quantitative data (mostly from
secondary sources), and includes tools to carry out analyses which help to understand the
production potential of the sector, and its contribution to agricultural and overall economic
growth (GDP), as well as reduction in rural poverty and food insecurity. Furthermore, LSIPT
enables the running of alternative technology and policy scenarios to gauge the supply
response of potential government investments in research and extension (such as technologies
that impact on feed availability, animal health, etc.), as well as private sector investments over
5 to 15 year projection periods. The scenario analysis is transparent and readily
understandable, and thus useful to policy makers and development investors. Moreover,
analysis of potential impacts from changes in key aspects of policy, such as the enactment of
food quality standards and regulations required to compete in formal markets (including export
markets) can also be evaluated with the ALive toolkit. Further description of the LSIPT
methodology is given in the diagram (below).

Modules and sub-modules

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
Initial Coalition of Household National Strategy & Monitoring &
assessment actors level level action plan Evaluation

SM1 SM1 SM1 SM1 SM1 SM1

Importance of Performance Contribution Summary Establishing
livestock sector National
of LS & HH of livestock to diagnostic M&E system
expert team
vulnerability the GDP

SM2 SM2 SM2 SM2 SM2 SM2

PRSP Current policy Performance of Potentials of Strategy Conducting
assessment context commodity livestock objectives S&M
chain sector

SM3 SM3 SM3 SM3Action

Stakeholders plan definition
Actors Policies &
assessment
constraints & institutions
OPLI
SM4
Implementation
arrangements

Poverty focused livestock diagnostic made and strategy and action plan developed with multiple
stakeholders to reinorce the contribution of livestock to poverty reduction.

Figure 1: Diagram showing the different modules and sub-modules of LSIPT

14
The core elements of LSIPT are the modules 3, 4 and 5. Module 3 assesses the productivity at
household, value chain, and production systems level. These micro and mesa data figures are
then consolidated and extrapolated to the national level in module 4. Once this data base is
established, the participatory tools of module 5 can be used to identify, with all stakeholders,
the priority sectors, target groups, and the most effective technology and policy interventions,
to ensure optimal use scarce human and financial resources. Once the interventions are
identified, financial, economic, social and environmental impacts can be rapidly assessed using
the database established in modules 3 and 4. Finally using the tools, the implementation
arrangements can be established on a mutually agreed upon basis.

Key information and data needed for the quantitative analysis carried out in Module 3 and 4
include:

a. A typology of the main different production systems prevailing in the country, with their
respective number of livestock keeping households and livestock numbers
b. Main livestock performance data for each species of livestock in each production system
in each typology zone, with a breakdown by age group and sex, reproductive
performance, mortality by age group and sex, average production, live-weight, off-take
rate, carcass weight, etc.
c. Feed requirements by species, age and sex of animals, as well as feed availability, as
related to land and water availability for forage production, and crop residues and
industrial byproducts
d. Dry matter yields of grass and crop lands (for crop-residues estimates for animal feed) in
each of the main agro-ecological zones

Available data and parameters required for the herd models were collected from published
papers and consultancy reports, as well as other “grey” literature. Gaps were filled through
consultations with national experts. For the household survey data where required, available
survey data collected by the Central Statistics Bureaus and research organizations was used,
and this data was assessed to determine how representative the surveys are, and gaps filled in
as needed.

15
Rwanda LSA Executive Summary

This Rwanda Livestock Sector Analysis (R-LSA) was undertaken by the International Livestock
Research Institute (ILRI) with input from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources
(MINAGRI) and Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) of The Republic of Rwanda. The study was
funded by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to develop a fact based LSA and
Livestock Master Plan for Rwanda (LMP).

Using available data from secondary sources and national livestock experts, the International
Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), developed a herd and livestock sector model and then
carried out an assessment of the current state of the sector (for 2016/17) to inform the long-
term potential for livestock development in Rwanda over 15-years (a Livestock Sector Analysis
(LSA)). The results of this LSA will guide in turn the preparation of the Rwanda Livestock Master
Plan (LMP) which is a series of five-year investment implementation plans or ‘roadmaps’, to be
used to direct the implementation of the national program to further modernize and transform
the Rwandan livestock sector. It is also meant to help realize the development vision of
Rwanda, namely the: Rwanda Development Vision 2025 to 2050 (Ministry of Finance and
Economic planning 2016).

This report seeks to inform Government of Rwanda policymakers, private investors, and
development partners (DPs or donors) involved in livestock development on the current status
and future potential for poverty reduction and economic growth of the livestock sector.

Development of the LSA

The LSA interventions, based on investment scenarios related to productivity enhancing

technologies and improved policies developed by MINAGRI, RAB and other Rwandan research
institutes and universities, were tested in accordance with agreed upon national development
objectives. The criteria used to assess the investment interventions were to:
 Reduce poverty
 Achieve food security
 Contribute to economic growth
 Contribute to exports
 Contribute to industrialization and employment
 Mitigate contribution to GHG emissions

Using measurable economic indicators for the above objectives, four key livestock value chains:
dairy with crossbred cows; red meat and milk (from cattle, sheep, and goats); chicken for meat
and eggs and pork (both white meat) – were identified in the LSA as having the most potential

16
for productivity increase through new investments to achieve these national economic
development objectives and contribute most to the long-run development of the sector.

A summary of the findings of the report shows:

 The national herd, consisting at present (in 2016/17) in about 1.39 million cattle, 700
thousand sheep, 2.94 million goats, 1.8 million pigs and about 7 million layers, broilers and
indigenous chicken, produces currently about 94.2 thousand Metric Tons (MT) of meat, 747
thousand MT of milk, and 243 million eggs per year. In addition the herd provides about 6.8
million MT of organic fertilizer.

 About half (46%) of the dressed meat in Rwanda comes from cattle, followed by swine
(21%). Chicken and goats make up 17% and 13% of dressed meat respectively, and sheep
only 3%.

 Sixty five percent (65%) of domestically consumed beef comes from crossbred cattle.
Meanwhile, for mutton and goat meat only 26 and 8% come from crossbreds, respectively.

 The contribution of the local cattle breeds to total milk production is only 9%, though they
represent 43% of the national cattle herd.

 Although the local, indigenous chicken now constitute 75% of the chicken population, they
produce only 32% of the chicken meat and 34% of the eggs in the village chicken systems.
Sixty eight percent (68%) of the chicken meat comes now from specialized broilers and
layers and 66% of the eggs from specialized layers.

 To facilitate the use of an analytical model created for this LSA study, a typology of the
different livestock systems was developed, consisting at the first level in the (a) Low Rainfall
Low Altitude (LRLA) zone which predominantly covers the eastern savanna and the eastern
plateau of Rwanda with a significant feature of farmland based grazing; (b) the medium
rainfall and medium altitude (MRMA) zone which is predominantly found in the central
plateau of Rwanda; and (c) the high rainfall high altitude (HRHA) which covers the western
highland, Lake Kivu and South West regions. Livestock production practices which are
modern, and which are to a certain extent independent of location and the broader
zonation are classified as specialized production (SP) systems and analyzed independently
due to their unique modern production characteristics and commercial orientation.

 The geographic distribution of ruminant livestock (cattle, sheep and goats) show that they
are not equally found across the three production zones. The LRLA and MRMA production
zones support 74% of the cattle population and the HRHA 25%. The specialized cattle
system is at its initial development stage. Most of the sheep are found in the HRHA (48%)
and MRMA (43%) production zones. Sheep production in the LRLA zone (9%) is minimal at

17
 present. On the other hand the largest proportion of the goats (40%) are found in the LRLA
zone, followed by the MRMA (31%) and the HRHA (29%) production zones.

 Fifty one percent (51%) of the national cattle herd are crosses, 6% pure and 43%
locals/indigenous. This denotes that a significant achievement of dairy sector modernization
has already accomplished by Rwanda.

 Based on the sector and herd model projection, the direct and indirect contribution of
livestock to GDP in 2016/17 is estimated at RWF 268 billion ($321 million)1, which amounts
to 4.6 percent of national GDP and 14% of agricultural GDP in 2015. This contribution at the
production stage does not include value added by the livestock value chains.

 The largest livestock value added now is generated by dairy cow milk production which
accounts for about 42%, followed by beef which accounts for 25%. Overall, including
organic matter and hides, cattle accounts for about 71% of the livestock value added
showing the continuing importance of the family cattle production system in Rwanda. Value
added from goat meat amounts to about 10%, mutton 2% and the remaining 16% come
from pork (8.4%) and chicken (8). The contribution from the specialized cattle, chicken and
pig systems is less than 5%. Family cattle production for meat and milk cannot be ignored in
any livestock sector development plan.

 In the case of meat, if the proposed LSA investment interventions are successfully
implemented, the results project production of 663 thousand metric tons of meat in 2031/32
which is 3.5 times the production under the business as usual (BAU) scenario over the same
period. This increase in production would increase the per capita availability of meat from
domestic production to 41 kg per capita, despite the fact that the human population in
Rwanda is projected to increase, by38% to 16.3 million in 2031/32 from 11.8 million in
2016/17 (NISR 2014).

 To increase the future per capita meat availability, it will be essential that both semi
intensive family pig and specialized piglet fattening systems and the number of specialized
broiler units be vastly increased. According to the LSA results the “with intervention”
scenario, shows that 95% of the additional meat in 2031/32 would come from chicken (37%)
and pigs (58%).

 Overall, in 2031 with the LSA intervention, 80% of the total meat comes from pigs (48%) and
chicken (32%). Cattle would contribute only 14%, goats 5% and sheep less than 1%.

 Successful investment in broiler and pig improvement could result in an overall increase of
600% in all meat production and 410% in per capita meat availability.

1
1 US $ is equivalent to about 830 Rwanda Francs

18
 In the case of cow milk, with the proposed investment interventions the LSA production
projection for 2031/32 is 2.2 billion liters of milk which is 1.4 times the BAU production level
for the same period. This would increase the per capita availability of milk in Rwanda in
2031/32 to 136 liters per capita or an increase of 115% from 2016/17 and 36% over the BAU
situation in 2031/32.

 The LSA results show that the future projected increase in milk production could be realized
through focusing investment in better genetics, feed and health services to improve family
crossbred based dairy farms, as well as commercial-scale specialized dairy production and
processing units.

 In the case of eggs, with the proposed LSA investment interventions, the projected
production would be 1.9 billion eggs in 2031/32 or 2.14 times compared to the BAU case of
869 million. This could lead to per capita production of eggs in 2031/32 reaching to 114 eggs
or about 5.7 kg per capita or an increase of 570% from 2016/17 and 211% from the 2031/32
BAU.

 In the case of livestock GDP, if the proposed LSA investment interventions are
implemented, the results project a livestock GDP of RWF 1.04 trillion ($1.24 billion) in
2031/32 which is an increase of 286% from the baseline year of RWF 268 billion ($321
million) and an increase of 81% from the 2031/32 BAU case of RWF 570 billion.

 According to the LSA results, with the investment interventions total meat would contribute
60% of the livestock GDP in which case pork contributes 25%, chicken meat 17%, beef 11%,
goats 6.4% and mutton 1%. For meat GDP, pork and chicken meat would become more
important than beef. Cow milk would contribute 29% and eggs 7%, and organic matter 4%.
This contribution to GDP at the production stage does not include value added from
livestock activities across the value chains.

 With improvements in animal health services and animal genetics, combined with improved
feeding and better management practices, livestock performance improves substantially. In
order to increase the production of meat in particular, a broader effort will be required to
improve the chicken and pig sector.

 Feed supply, in particular forage and fodder for ruminant livestock and grains and oil seeds
for chicken and pigs, is foreseen to be the main physical constraint to expanding the
livestock production. The huge increase in pig and chicken production would necessitate an
allocation of adequate land for the production of maize and soy beans and importation of
additional feed ingredients.

 In 2014/15 the per capita meat consumption for the people of Rwanda was only 7.9 kg/year
for meat, 59 liters/year for milk and 0.63 kg per year for eggs (MINAGRI/RAB 2015). In the
LSA (2016/17) baseline the per capita projection for meat was 8 kg, 63 liters of milk and 21

19
 eggs or about 1 kg. These values are far below the FAO nutritionally recommended level of
consumption of animal source foods (FAO 1999 in MINAGRI 2004).

Table 4 below shows the incremental production and GDP benefits that could be obtained for
each livestock commodity as a result of the LSA additional investment interventions compared
to the BAU interventions. With the additional investment recommended in the LSA, pork and
chicken meat show a spectacular change in both production and contribution to GDP, followed
by eggs. The change in GDP contributions for beef is small and this is due to the higher
intermediate costs incurred per unit of change in live weight of crossbreed cattle and the
shrinking number of the local cattle breeds.

Table 4: Percent (%) change in production and GDP between BAU and the “with case”, 2031/32
BAU "With Case"
Production in Production (%
Livestock products MT GDP in RWF change) GDP (% change)
Beef 75,173 11,4387 24% 0.3%
Goats 27,699 54,639 25% 21%
Mutton 4,161 7,263 29% 24%
Pork 47,692 50,415 568% 405%
Chicken 35644 43,466 493% 311%
Total Meat 190,369 270,170 248% 131%
Milk 1,628,347 247,580 37% 22%
Eggs in number 869,193,349 38,713 113% 77%
Hides & skins 2,259 1,078 45% 47%
Organic matter 12,009,806 13,359 30% 214%

The LSA investment interventions result in production of 663 thousand MT of meat, 2.2 billion
liters of milk, and 1.9 billion eggs which would substantially increase availability of ASFs in
Rwanda to help meet the nutritional requirements of the rapidly growing human population,
expected to reach 16.3 million people in 2031/32. The per capita meat production/availability
in Rwanda reaches to 41 kg which is eighty-two percent (82%) of the FAO per capita
consumption requirement for a healthy life - a very significant improvement! The per capita
milk production/availability reaches to 136 liters which exceeds the global average by 51% and
that of the average for developing countries by 200%. This means milk and dairy products
could be exported from Rwanda. In the case of eggs, the per capita production of eggs reaches
to 114 eggs or about 5.7 kg. This exceeds the FAO recommended value and could supply the
domestic bakery industry and other industries, or it could be exported after meeting the
domestic consumption requirements.

This leads to the following strategic policy recommendations:

 Priority given to an increase in productivity or production per animal, by addressing the

feed deficit, animal health and genetics. Key policy and investment actions to support
20
 increasing productivity would be: the enhancement of veterinary coverage through private
vets and private-public partnerships to reduce mortality and morbidity, the promotion of
fodder, and maize and soya bean production through allocation of lands; and the
accelerated introduction of improved genetics once feed production and health services are
in place.

 Through a focus on: increasing production and consumption of low GHG-emitting chickens
and pig, dramatically regulating the higher GHG emitters, especially cattle as well as rapid
reduction of local breeds of all species, where feasible except goats, through a higher
offtake rate than currently, as well as additional investments to help achieve increased
productivity for all livestock species identified as priorities in the LSA, the climate resilience
of the sector (Vision 2050) could be improved substantially and the other national
development objectives of the nation could still be met.

 For the proposed LSA investment interventions to help improve food security for animal
source foods (ASFs), an increase in the numbers of livestock will have to occur, but at a
lower growth rate. The environmental consequences will need to be closely monitored.
More productive crossbreds would also replace the less productive indigenous breeds. For
example, with the LSA intervention the proportion of the indigenous cattle in the national
cattle herd would drop down to 24% in 2031/32.

 Indigenous cattle breeds do not seem to have a future for milk production in a land scare in
country like Rwanda, as their yield per cow is too low crossbreeding should continue to be
the focus of dairy development.

 The key to realizing the great potential of the Rwanda smallholder dairy sub-sector is more
investment in milk processing to ensure stable market prices.

 Investment in sheep production improvement was not found to have much potential for
helping to meet the national development objectives and is not recommended to be a high
priority investment option.

 Success in modernizing the chicken and pig sub-sector would also require complementary
policy intervention: that sufficient land be allocated and put into chicken and pig feed
production (especially maize and soybean), and the private sector be encouraged to invest
in chicken and pig agribusinesses – especially day old chick production and meat and egg
processing and pig meat processing.

 If chicken and pork substitute for red meat consumption, then red meat could be exported
to meet the GoR export goals to earn more foreign exchange. However, tastes and
preferences for local chicken would have to be changed through promotion of exotic
chicken meat and changes in cuisine.

21
 The need for balanced policies to encourage investment in animal production and meat
processing to meet domestic per capita meat consumption would also help with export
promotion.

 Special incentives (to improve the business climate, lower taxes, and increased training)
could promote more value addition through processing and product transformation,
combined with a clearer role of the public and private sector.

This, in turn leads to the following scenarios that have been tested for their economic
feasibility. The agent of change will be a technology intervention; however, they have to be
supported by policy adjustments to be fully effective:

 Dairy breeding improvement interventions, combining artificial insemination (AI) using

higher quality exotic semen with estrus synchronization in all production zones.

 In particular for poverty reduction an improvement in the local chickens through selection
and reduction of reproductive wastage through provision of brooding facilities and artificial
incubators.

 Transformation of traditional backyard family chicken (now 75% of the total chicken
population) relying on mass introduction of dual purpose crossbred chickens, which have far
higher genetic potential for both eggs and meat, when combined with supplemental feeding
and adequate health services.

 The number and size of specialized commercial scale broiler and layer units also need to be
substantially increased. A massive importation and dissemination of exotic chicken breeds
by the private sector and through PPPs where the private sector is reluctant to enter on its
own.

 The number and size of family mixed semi intensive pig system and piglet fattening units
also need to be substantially increased. The biosafety (HASP) measure at the production and
processing units should be strengthened and killer pig diseases such as ASF should be
controlled.

 Rapid increase in private and PPP animal health services to provide critical vaccines, and
GoR extension services to promote improved feeding and exotic chicken meat and eggs
consumption;

 Promotion of exports to more remunerative markets through the introduction of a practical

and affordable system of animal ID and traceability.

 Strengthening animal health infrastructure, quarantine facilities and services

22
Dairy value chain Development Roadmap
(2017/18– 2021/22)

23
Dairy value chain development roadmap (2017/18 – 2021/22)
Vision
Increase milk production enough to meet domestic consumption requirements for dairy
products and enable exports of the marketable surplus by increasing dairy cow productivity
through improvement in dairy cow genetics, health and nutrition, and by increasing the
crossbred dairy cow herd by 46%, milk production by 65%, and contribution to GDP by 53%,
while improving the processing and marketing of dairy products.
Investment scenarios analyzed
The three dairy investment scenarios analyzed to here are referred to as BAU (Business As
Usual), MLI (Medium Level of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). BAU
represents the base case scenario with the analysis showing the impacts of continuing the
current level of investment and recurrent spending on milk production and contribution to GDP
throughout the LMP analysis period of 5 years. RLI is the recommended level of investment
which could achieve the agreed upon national development objectives. MLI analyzes the
impacts on milk production and GDP of a third option created for investment decision makers
who face a budget constraint. It represents a medium level of investment between the BAU
and the RLI option.
The RLI scenario is first analyzed and compared to the baseline year (2016/2017) production
and contribution to GDP. Then the MLI option is compared to the baseline year (2016/2017)
production and GDP contribution. RLI and MLI are then both compared to the BAU scenario
impacts (production and GDP contribution) in the 5th year of the LMP period (2021/22) to gauge
their differential impacts one to the other.
Overall Targets under the recommended level of investment scenario (RLI)
 Currently, there are about 799 thousand crossbreed dairy cattle in Rwanda and it is
projected that the number will increase to 1.17 million by 2021/22. This will be a 46%
increase (Table 5 below)
 In Rwanda, there was about 747 million liters of milk produced in 2016/17 and it is targeted
to grow to 1.2 billion liters by 2021/22, a 65% increase over 5 years (Table 6 below)
 The current national annualized average milk production per cow is about 909 liters and the
target for 2021/22 is to reach at 1,281 liters, 41% increase (Table 7).
 Mainly due to the dairy, but also from the red meat improvement interventions, the GDP
contribution of milk at nation level is expected to increase from 113 billion RWF in 2016/17
to 163 billion RWF in 2021/22, a 53% increase (Table, 8).

Specific targets under RLI

The targets for dairy crossbred dairy cattle numbers, milk production, milk production per cow,
and contribution to GDP are given for the specific dairy systems by production typology zones
in tables 5-8 below.

24
To facilitate the use of the analytical model created for this LSA study, a typology of the
different livestock systems was developed, consisting at the first level in the (a) Low Rainfall
Low Altitude (LRLA) zone which predominantly covers the eastern savanna and the eastern
plateau of Rwanda with a significant feature of farmland based grazing; (b) the medium rainfall
and medium altitude (MRMA) zone which is predominantly found in the central plateau of
Rwanda; and (c) the high rainfall high altitude (HRHA) which covers the western highlands, or
the Lake Kivu and South West regions. Livestock production practices which are modern, and
which are to a large extent independent of location and the production zonation are classified
as specialized production (SP) systems and analyzed independently due to their unique modern
production characteristics and commercial market orientation.

Table 5 Current and projected number of crossbreed cattle at national and by production
system/zone under RLI
Livestock Livestock National and production system crossbred number %
production production Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Change
systems zone (2016/17)
Improved LRLA 292,822 316,248 341,548 368,872 398,382 430,252 47%
Family MRMA 285,171 307,985 332,624 359,234 387,972 419,010 47%
Dairy (IFD) HRHA 203,932 220,247 237,867 256,896 277,448 299,643 47%
Sub-total 781,926 844,480 912,038 985,002 1,063,802 1,148,906 47%
(IFD)
Commercial Grazing 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 0%
Specialized based
Dairy (CSD) (Gishwati)
Non- 3,199 3,313 3,431 3,552 3,679 3,809 19%
grazing
based (all
zones)
Sub-total 16,971 17,085 17,202 17,324 17,450 17,581 4%
(CSD)
National number of 798,897 861,565 929,241 1,002,326 1,081,252 1,166,487 46%
crossbred

25
Table 6. Current and projected milk production in Rwanda at national level and by production
zone/system
Livestock production National and production zone/system milk production (000' liters) % Change
production system Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 (five
zone (2016/17) years)
Meat-Milk system (Local breeds) and Improved Family Dairy (IFD)
(crossbreds)
LRLA Meat-Milk 24,888 24,099 23,335 22,595 21,879 21,185 -14.9%
(Local
breeds)
IFD 227,488 253,663 282,850 315,396 351,686 392,152 72.4%
(crossbred)
MRMA Meat-Milk 28,183 27,263 26,373 25,512 24,680 23,874 -15.3%
(Local
breeds)
IFD 242,624 270,290 301,112 335,448 373,699 416,312 71.6%
(crossbred)
HRHA Meat-Milk 17,643 17,064 16,504 15,962 15,437 14,930 -15.4%
(Local
breed)
IFD 183,774 204,873 228,395 254,617 283,849 316,438 72.2%
(crossbred)
Sub-total Meat-Milk 70,715 68,426 66,212 64,069 61,995 59,989 -15.2%
(IFD) (Local
breed)
IFD 653,885 728,826 812,356 905,460 1,009,234 1,124,901 72.0%
(crossbred)
Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD)
Gishwati Grazing 15,721 18,031 20,681 23,719 27,204 31,202 98%
based
(Gishwati)
All zones Non- 6,267 7,365 8,654 10,170 11,950 14,042 124%
grazing
based
Sub-total (CSD) 21,989 25,396 29,335 33,889 39,155 45,244 106%
Total milk production 746,589 822,648 907,903 1,003,417 1,110,384 1,230,135 65%

26
Table 7 Annualized milk productivity of cows in Meat-Milk, IFD and CSD systems (liters per year)
Livestock Livestock Milk production per reproductive female per year (in liters) %
production production Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Change
zones systems (2016/17)
Meat-Milk system (Local breed) and Improved Family Dairy
(IFD) (crossbred)
LRLA Meat-Milk 216 218 221 223 226 228 6%
(Local breed)
IFD 1,323 1,369 1,417 1,467 1,519 1,572 19%
(crossbred)
MRMA Meat-Milk 216 218 221 223 226 228 6%
(Local breed)
IFD 1,418 1,468 1,519 1,572 1,627 1,684 19%
(crossbred)
HRHA Meat-Milk 216 218 221 223 226 228 6%
(Local breed)
IFD 1,512 1,565 1,620 1,677 1,735 1,796 19%
(crossbred)
Average Meat-Milk 216 218 221 223 226 228 6%
(Local breed)
IFD
(crossbred) 1,407 1,456 1,507 1,560 1,615 1,671 19%
Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD)
Gishwati Grazing based 1,890 2,191 2,539 2,943 3,411 3,954 109%
All zones Non-grazing 3,360 3,772 4,235 4,754 5,337 5,991 78%
based
Average CSD 2,167 2,500 2,884 3,326 3,837 4,426 104%
National average 909 974 1,043 1,117 1,196 1,281 41%

Table 8 Current and projected GDP contribution of milk in Rwanda at national level and by
production zone/system
Livestock production GDP contribution of milk by production zones and systems (10^6) %
production system Change
zone Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
(2016/17)
Meat-Milk system (Local breed) and Improved Family Dairy (IFD)
(crossbred)
LRLA Meat-Milk 3,861 3,722 3,588 3,459 3,335 3,215 -17%
(Local
breed)
IFD 33,712 36,991 40,587 44,534 48,865 53616 59%
(crossbred)
MRMA Meat-Milk 4,377 4,216 4,061 3,912 3,769 3,630 -17%
(Local
breeds)
IFD 36,346 39,880 43,757 48,011 52,679 57800 59%

27
Livestock production GDP contribution of milk by production zones and systems (10^6) %
production system Change
zone Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
(2016/17)
(crossbred)
HRHA Meat-Milk 2,906 2,798 2,695 2,595 2,499 2,407 -17%
(Local
breeds)
IFD 29,288 32,197 35,394 38,909 42,772 47020 61%
(crossbreds)
Sub-total Meat-Milk 11,143 10,737 10,344 9,967 9,603 9,252 -17%
(IFD) (Local
breeds)
IFD 99,347 109,067 119,738 131,454 144,316 158,436 59%
(crossbreds)
Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD)
Gishwati Grazing 2,343 2,343 2,343 2,343 2,343 4,086 74%
based
(Gishwati)
All zones Non-grazing 576 576 576 576 576 1,592 176%
based
Sub-total (CSD) 2,919 2,919 2,919 2,919 2,919 5,678 95%
Total GDP from milk 113,409 122,723 133,002 144,340 156,838 173,367 53%

Milk in Rwanda is produced from two species; cattle and goats. The milk coming from goats is
so small it is not considered in this LMP report. This section analyzes the impacts of dairy
improvement interventions on milk produced from cattle only. The milk is coming from cattle
produced from two production systems; the Cow dairy system, which mainly uses crossbred
cattle and the Meat-Milk System which is dominated by the local breeds. The Cow dairy
production system can be further divided into two systems, Improved family dairy (IFD) and
commercial specialized dairy (CSD). The IFD production system is practiced by farmers in mixed
crop-livestock production systems, uses crossbred cattle with small level of inputs and results in
a moderate level of milk production. The CSD system, on the other hand, is a commercial scale
specialized dairy production system. It includes the specialized grazing based dairy production
that is mainly practiced in the Gishwati Rangeland and non-grazing based dairy production that
is practiced mainly around urban and per-urban areas.
The two Cow dairy systems (IFD and CSD) share a lot of common challenges, opportunities and
improvement and investment options; however, to capture the distinct features of each system
and make implementation of the plan easier, each system is discussed separately in terms of
challenges, opportunities, improvement and investment options and impact of interventions.

28
Improved Family Dairy (IFD) under RLI

Targets

 The number of crossbreed dairy cattle in the IFD system will increase from the current 781
thousand to 1.15 million in 2021/22. The growth rate in number of crossbreds will be the
same between different production zones (Table 5).
 The production of milk from the IFD system will increase from 653 million liters in the base
year to 1.12 billion liters in 2021/22, a 72% increase from the base year (Table 6).
 Annual milk production of a cow in the IFD system will increase from 1,407 lt/year in the
base year to 1,671 lt/year in 2021/22, a 19% increase in productivity (Table 7).
 Due to the dairy improvement interventions in the IFD system, the GDP contribution of milk
from the system is expected to increase from 99 billion RWF in 2016/17 to 158 billion RWF
in 2021/22, increase in 59% (Table 8).

Table 9: Key challenges and strategies related to IFD:

Key challenges Strategies
1. Feed availability and quality
 Scarcity and low quality of feed stuff  Strengthening the extension service
(forage, concentrate) and training on forage production,
 Limited supplementation conservation and feeding
 Inadequate use of available feed  Improve the use of available feed
resources resources (crop residues and all other
 Limited marketing and high cost of forage resources)
feed  Enforcing feed, forage and forage seed
 Shortage of water quality standards
 Rainwater conservation
2. Low genetic potential of indigenous animals for milk production
 Inadequate and inefficient AI services.  Promoting, expanding, and
 Local breed low genetic potential for milk strengthening privatization of AI, and AI
production with synchronization services;
 Exotic breeds have low adaptability to  Providing training, backup support and
disease and harsh management incentives to livestock farmers to work
conditions as AI technicians.
 Establishing and strengthening dairy
heifer multiplication farms through
private, public and private-public joint
ventures;
 Encourage cross-breeding with
improved dairy breeds
 Improve extrinsic factors to enhance
adaptability of exotic breeds
 Put in place herd record scheme

29
 Key challenges Strategies

3. Animal health services

 High prevalence of TBD and other  Reinforcement of diseases control
parasites (Tsetse Fly, helminthes), interventions
mastitis and brucellosis  Enhance disease surveillance (empower
 Incidence of Transboundary diseases, veterinary laboratories)
 High calf mortality;  Enhance and encourage private animal
 Inefficient animal health services; health service delivery
 Poor quality control of drugs and  Improving availability and quality
supplies; control of vaccines and drugs
 Inadequate of professionalism in farming  Harmonization of animal health
(hobby farming, low knowledge, low management in the countries within
access to capital investment) the region
4. Marketing and processing
 Fluctuations in milk supply due to  Promote investment in milk processing
seasonality (dry and wet seasons)  Put in place animal products grading
 Unreliable transport system and pricing policies
 Insufficient number of milk processing  Introduction of quality-based standards
plants and pricing to encourage quality milk
 An absence of quality-based pricing supply
incentives;  Strengthen enforcement of milk and
 Poor milk quality control and milk products quality standards
enforcement mechanisms  Formalize milk trade by training and
 Existing informal trade of raw milk which licensing of milk traders
pose threat to zoonosis; and  Upscale the on-going school milk
 Limited promotion of dairy-product feeding programs to promote milk
consumption; consumption
 Lack of grading & pricing schemes of  Create and promote awareness of milk
animal products consumption
 Informal milk cross border trade  Invest in Feeder roads
 Put in place a framework for the
enforcement of all existing regulations
(eg; ministerial order on milk)
5. Policy
 Pricing policies causing disincentives to  Put in place indicative prices for milk
involve in milk processing industries products
 Reduce the bureaucracy and facilitate
investment in the dairy industry

30
Interventions to achieve targets

I. Intervention area/s (production zone/s):

Dairy improvement intervention can be practiced in all over the country and all livestock
production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones)

II. Priority interventions

Feed and feeding
 Promote improved grass and leguminous feed productions in all accessible areas including
backyard, hedge and live fence. Feeds like Pennisetum, Brachiaria, Leucaena, Sesbana,
Calliandra, Chloris gayana, Panicum Maximum, desmodium sp, etc.). Adoption rate and
coverage of this technology expected to reach 50% and 100%, respectively, in the coming 5
years (González et.al, 20162).
 Improve production, marketing and quality control of forage and forage seeds through
strengthening existing regulatory bodies
 Improve quality control of processed feeds and industrial by-products used as feed in the
dairy system
 Increase the use of crop residues e.g.: maize drying on the field to be used and conserved
for animal feed
 Increasing access to water – prioritizing water shortage areas
 Promote allocation of land for production of improved pasture/forage
 Increase the efficient use of forages and crop residues (e.g. conservation)
 Create an industry for producing feed additives (minerals, vitamins, amino acids)
 Increase availability of cereals (e.g. importation)
 Promote the use of concentrates/processed feeds from feed processing plants
 Mobilize farmers associations to organize group purchase and distribution of processed
feed
 Research on:
 Successful forages species according to zones
 The real quantity of forages and post-harvest that Rwanda can produce in
comparison to actual and projected demands
Health
 Coverage of health service will reach 100%
 Farmers that adopt the recommended rate of tick control treatments will reach 60% in the
coming 5 years
 All animals that need vaccination against endemic (ECF, BQ, brucellosis, Rabies), epidemic
diseases (FMD, LSD, RVF) will receive vaccines.
 Enforce FMD and CBPP free Rwanda in 5 years to improve the acceptance of products from
importing countries
 Rate (%) of animal/animal product movement permits issued will be 100%

2
González C; Schiek B; Mwendia S; Prager SD. 2016. Improved forages and milk production in East Africa. A case study in the
series: Economic foresight for understanding the role of investments in agriculture for the global food system. Cali, CO: Centro
Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). 48 p.

31
 Strengthen capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines, and supervise mass vaccination
programs
 Strengthen veterinary diagnosis laboratories
 Promote private vet service providers
 Farmers that adopt mastitis control and management technologies will reach 60% in 5
years. Currently 60% of cattle have mastitis cases.

Extension
 Intensive diary improvement trainings will reach 60% of dairy cattle owners in 5 years.
Farmers will receive more intensive training in relation to dairy cattle management
(feeding, breeding, deworming, tick control, hygiene and milk handling and transport)
 Percent of MCCs and cooperatives providing dairy input supply, animal health, extension
and financial services increases from about the current 38%3 to 80% in 5 years
 Build the capacity of extension agents
 Increase extension services delivery through farmer associations

Genetics
 The population of local breed cattle will decrease while the number of crossbred and the
total number of cattle increases. The growth rate of cattle number should slow down and
eventually become zero percent depending on the available feed (the assumptions for
future cattle population growth is indicated in Annex).
 The number of local breed decrease by an annual growth rate of about -4%. The average
growth rate of local breed cattle trend for the past 10 years was about -4% (RAB, report).
 The number of crossbreed cattle increase by annual growth rate of up to 8% in the first five
years (2016/17 – 2021/22). The average growth rate trend of crossbreed cattle for the last
10 years is about 16% (RAB, report).
 The overall cattle population will be growing with only 2.7% the first five years and slows
after that. The current cattle population growth rate is around 3% (RAB, report)
 Improve the efficiency of AI service through promoting private AI practitioners and training
of AI technicians
 Extend the use of AI. Currently only up to 15% of cows can get the service4.
 Continuous research on exotic breeds and their adaptability to the production systems
 Expand performance and pedigree records

Marketing and processing5

The priority interventions related to marketing and processing of milk include:

3
IFAD, 2016. Rwanda Dairy Development Project, detailed design report.
4 Both insemination and semen production targets for 2016/17 shows that (RAB, 2016/17), only 15% of cows can be inseminated
annually. There is a plan to inseminate 118,000 cows and produce 160,000 dose of semen by 2016/17. With 55% ratio for
reproductive females (about 765,094 cows). The number of cows that would be inseminated with AI service would be
118,000/765,094 = 15%
5
The December 2015 Ministerial Order (MO) regulating the collection, transportation and selling of milk, requires
all milk sold in the country must first be collected at a place where its quality testing is possible. The law recognizes
two types of milk collection points: simple sheltered milk collection sites and modern milk collection centers.

32
 Increase the functional capacity and utilization of existing MCCs6.
 About 150 additional MCCs are required at 90% utilization of capacity with milk collection
capacity of 5,000 lts/day to collect the total milk currently sold in the country.
o 150 MCCs and 200 milk collection sites will be established in the five years.
 Strengthen existing dairy cooperatives and establish new 150 cooperatives
 Enhance the capacity of existing MCCs to test antibiotic residues, mastitis and start to fully
enforce existing milk quality standards at MCCs in the coming 5 years
 Establish functional linkage between private milk traders, MCCs, cooperatives and
processing plants as observed in Gicimbu district, Kageyo dairy cooperative
 Improve grading and quality based pricing of milk and milk products
 Percent of milk collected in the formal market to increase from the current 10-15% to 80%
in 5 years
 Attract local and international investors in milk cold chain and milk processing
 Improve feeder roads to and from MCCs/MCPs
 Encourage establishment of new milk processing plants (pasteurized milk, UHT and
powdered milk) that can process at least a sum of 675 MT/day. Currently Rwanda has a
capacity of processing 280 MT/day7. With the assumption that most of the milk collected by
MCCs will go to processing plants, milk processing capacity of additional 675 MT/day is
required in the coming 5 years.

Assumptions and targets in the IFD system resulting from dairy VC improvement
interventions under RLI

I. Improved Family Dairy (IFD) production

Assumptions for the IFD system: the following assumptions hold for those who adopt the dairy
improvement interventions:
 Parturition rate to increase by 10% (Argent, et.al. 20148)
 Mortality rate to decrease by 20% to 40%
 The growth rate for the number of crossbred cattle will be about positive 8% and local
breeds negative 4% (due to the feed constraint, higher productivity and higher profitability
of crossbred cows)

6
Under current situation, about 30% of the milk is consumed at home while rest is sold and only 10-15% goes to the
formal market. However, based on the new MO, up to 70% of the milk i.e. around 500,000 MT (709,399,650*70%)
need to pass through milk collection sites/centers. In Rwanda, there are 100 MCCs (28 fully functional, 58 not fully
functional and 14 not functional) (IFAD, 2016). Though more than 60% of MCCs work under capacity of the
threshold of 2,000 lt/day, the total installed capacity of existing MCCs is around 200 - 300 MT/day (IFAD, 2016).
7 The country has five main milk processing plants and about 25-30 small and medium scale processors of cheese and other dairy
products (IFAD, 2016). In total, Rwanda is currently estimated to have about 280 MT/day milk processing capacity (around
84,000 MR/year), with utilization of around 35-40% of the total installed capacity. The five main processing plants include
Inyange Industries, Crystal Industries (only 7 months old with a production capacity of 100 MT per day but currently operating at
10% capacity but rapidly expanding) Nyanza Dairy, Savanah Dairy, Haji Dairy and Blessed Dairies
8
Argent J., Augsburg B., Raul I. 2014. Livestock asset transfers with and without training: Evidence from Rwanda.
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 108. PP 19–39.

33
 Lactation length to increase from 270 to 300 days
 Daily milk production to increase by 30% (González et.al, 20169, Argent, et.al. 2014)
 Expense for purchase of forage seeds and forage cuttings increases by 20%
 Amount of purchased concentrate/processed feed to increase by at least 2-3
kg/day/lactating cow. At least 50% of crossbred cow owners in the country are assumed to
feed 2-3 kg/day/cow by the 5th year (2021/22) of the LMP
 Expenditure for veterinary services will double (increase 50%)

IFD investments under RLI

The investment costs of dairy improvement are categorized into six major intervention areas –
feed, genetics and breeding, health, extension, research and milk marketing and value addition.
The investment cost for milk marketing and value addition takes the highest share of the total
investment (about 40 billion RWF, 80%) and 71% will be funded by the private sector (Table 11).
Genetics and breeding takes the second highest share of the total investment cost followed by
research and feed improvement investment costs. The total dairy cattle improvement
investment costs for the LMP 5-year period (2017/18 – 2021/22) add up to RWF 50.5 billion;
out of which 58% is expected to come from the private sector, while the rest (42%) is expected
to be funded by the public sector (Gov’t, NGOs, etc.) (Table 11).

9
González C; Schiek B; Mwendia S; Prager SD. 2016. Improved forages and milk production in East Africa. A case
study in the series: Economic foresight for understanding the role of investments in agriculture for the global food
system. Cali, CO: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). 48 p.

34
Table 10. Five year dairy improvement investment capital costs (2017/18 – 2021/22)
No Investment Unit Quantity Unite cost Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget
Intervention (10^6 RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total source
1 Animal Feeding
Support to forage Ha 0.7 0.02 7.5 7.5 3.7 18.7 Public -
seed multipliers 30%,
(initial financial private -
support and small 70%
equipment)
Support small scale Processing 25 2.49 24.9 24.9 12.5 62.3 Public -
feed processing units units 30%,
(initial investment) private -
70%
i Construction of 3 Feed plants 3 This cost
i Commercial animal is covered
feed plants in the
chicken
VC
roadmap
as 100%
private
i Improve the capacity laboratories 1 664.00 664.0 664.0 Public -
v of existing feed 50%,
quality control private -
laboratories 50%
v Strengthen the laboratories 1 664.00 664.0 664.0 Public -
existing 50%,
pasture/forage seed private -
quality control 50%
laboratories
Rangeland ha 1,000 0.04 13.2 16.6 11.6 41.6 Public -
rehabilitation -- 20%,
removing weeds, private -

35
No Investment Unit Quantity Unite cost Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget
Intervention (10^6 RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total source
over-sowing, fertilizer 80%
application in
Gishwati rangeland
Sub-total 695.5 678.1 33.2 15.8 22.0 1435.5
2 Animal Health
Equipment/ kit for Vet 175 1.00 41.5 41.5 49.8 41.5 174.3 Public –
vet technicians technician 100%
Rehabilitation and laboratory 2 14.11 14.1 14.1 28.2 Public –
equipping satellite 100%
laboratories
Equip the national laboratory 1 14.94 14.9 14.9 Public –
veterinary laboratory 100%
Motorcycles for Motorcycle 300 1.25 373.5 Public –
district DVMs and 100%
sector vets
Revision of AHW’s Manual 1 8.30 8.3 8.3 Public –
training manual 100%
Support private AHWs 70 1.00 33.2 19.9 16.6 69.7 Public -
AHWs (kits including 30%,
bicycle and cell private -
phone) 70%
Support private Vet doctors 9 1.16 5.8 4.6 10.5 Public -
veterinary doctors 30%,
(kits) private -
70%
Sub-total 153.6 144.4 87.6 194.2 99.6 679.4
3 Animal Breeding and
Genetics
Investments
Purchase of cattle Heifers 5,000 0.76 830.0 830.0 830.0 830.0 830.0 3818.0 Public –
and accompanied 100%

36
No Investment Unit Quantity Unite cost Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget
Intervention (10^6 RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total source
packages in GRINKA
program
Rehabilitation of Station 1 182.60 91.3 91.3 182.6 Public –
Masaka bull station 100%
and upgrade of lab
equipment
Purchase of high Bulls 10 16.60 49.8 49.8 33.2 33.2 166.0 Public –
genetic merit bulls 100%
Production and Document 1 12.45 7.5 5.0 12.5 Public –
diffusion of breeding 100%
plan
Nitrogen Plant Nitro. plant 1 415.00 415.0 415.0 Public –
Equipment 100%
installation
Support private AI Technicians 200 1.16 10.0 8.3 5.0 232.4 Public -
service providers (kits 30%,
including cell phone) private -
70%
Animal identification Lump sum 1 334.74 46.1 98.4 63.7 64.9 61.7 334.7 Public –
and performance 100%
recording (software,
equipment and
training)
Sub-total 1439.7 1074.4 903.6 936.4 929.8 5,161.2
4 Extension
Prepare, publish and Training 1 37.35 20.8 16.6 37.4 Public –
distribute dairy cattle manual 100%
management training
manuals
Training of national Trainee 10 24.90 249.0 249.0 Public –
dairy master trainers 100%

37
No Investment Unit Quantity Unite cost Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget
Intervention (10^6 RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total source
(in country and study
tour abroad)
Sub-total 269.8 16.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 286.4
5 Research
Infrastructure of Research 8 373.50 373.5 830.0 954.5 830.0 2988.0 Public –
livestock research centers 100%
centers and farm
stations rehabilitated
(infrastructure and
lab equipment)
Sub-total 373.5 830.0 0.0 954.5 830.0 2,988.0
6 Marketing and Value
Addition
Strengthen the laboratories 1 332.00 249.0 83.0 332.0 Public –
capacity of milk 100%
quality and safety
control laboratory
Strengthen existing Cooperatives 50 12.45 311.3 311.3 622.5 Public -
dairy cooperatives 70%,
private -
30%
Establish new and re- Cooperatives 150 66.40 2490.0 2490.0 2490.0 2490.0 9960.0 Public -
establish non- 70%,
functional dairy private -
cooperatives 30%
(training,
sensitization,
equipping and
facilities)
Strengthen the Cooperatives 100 20.75 518.8 518.8 518.8 518.8 2075.0 Public -
capacity of 70%,

38
No Investment Unit Quantity Unite cost Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget
Intervention (10^6 RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total source
cooperatives to private -
enable them give 30%
services like milk
collection, extension,
health, AI, financial
Organize and Cooperatives 1,000 1.25 249.0 249.0 249.0 249.0 249.0 1245.0 Public -
capacity building of 30%,
milk collectors (kits private -
including bicycle) 70%
Organize milk traders Milk traders 5 207.50 207.5 207.5 207.5 207.5 207.5 1037.5 Private –
100%
Strengthen existing MCCs 50 41.50 1660.0 415.0 2075.0 Public -
MCCs 70%,
private -
30%
Establish new milk Milk 200 2.70 134.9 134.9 134.9 134.9 539.5 Public -
collection points collection 70%,
points private -
30%
Establish new MCCs MCCs 150 2.49 83.0 83.0 103.8 103.8 373.5 Public -
70%,
private -
30%
Strengthen the Lump sum 1 83.00 41.5 41.5 83.0 Public -
capacity of National 40%,
Dairy Farmers private -
Federation of 60%
Rwanda (NDFFR)
Sub-total 5,608.8 7,277.4 15,497.6 5,846.3 16,375.3 50,473.5
GRAND TOTAL 5608.8 7270.8 15497.6 5838.0 16375.3 50,467.7
INVESTMENT

39
Table 11. Total investment and share of dairy improvement investment costs from public
and private sources

No Investment Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Investment cost share (%)

Intervention Public Private Public Private
1 Animal feeding 696.62 753.98 48% 52%
2 Animal health 623.3 56.1 92% 8%
3 Animal breeding and 4,998.5 162.7 97% 3%
genetics
4 Extension 286.4 - 100% 0%
5 Research 2,988.0 - 100% 0%
6 Marketing and value 11,690.6 28,232.5 29% 71%
addition
GRAND TOTAL
21,279.26 29,188.64 42% 58%
INVESTMENT

Impacts of dairy improvement interventions in the improved family dairy (IFD)

system under RLI

Milk production
 Due to the dairy improvement interventions, the production of milk in the IFD is
expected to increase from 653 million to 1.12 billion liters over five years (2016/17 -
2021/22), an increase in 72% (Table, 6).

Change in milk productivity per cow

 Annual milk production of a cow in the IFD system will increase from about 1,407
liters/year in the base year to 1,671 liters/year in 2021/22, a 19% increase in
productivity (Table 7).

GDP contribution
 The GDP contribution of milk from the IFD system increases from 99 billion in the base
year (2016/17) to 158 billion RWF in the 5th LMP year or 2021/22. The percent change in
GDP contribution between 2016/17 and 2021/22 for IFD systems is more or less the
same (59-61%) for all the three production zones for the dairy VC, as one would expect
(Table 8).

40
Table 12: Activities time line and sequencing: Gantt chart under RLI
No Investment Intervention Investment cost (10^6 RWF)
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
1 Animal Feeding
Support to forage seed multipliers (initial
financial support and small equipment)
Support small scale feed processing units
(initial investment)
i Construction of 3 Commercial animal feed
i plants
i Improve the capacity of existing feed quality
v control laboratories
v Strengthen the existing pasture/forage seed
quality control laboratories
Range land rehabilitation and removing weeds,
over-sowing, fertilizer application in Gishwati
rangeland
2 Animal Health
Equipment/ kit for vet technicians
Rehabilitation and equipping satellite
laboratories
Equip the national veterinary laboratory
Motorcycles for district DVMs and sector vets
Revision of AHW’s training manual
Support private AHWs (kits including bicycle
and cell phone)
Support private veterinary doctors (kits)
3 Animal Breeding and Genetics Investments
Purchase of cattle and accompanied packages
in GRINKA program
Rehabilitation of Masaka bull station and
upgrade of lab equipment
Purchase of high genetic merit bulls
Production and diffusion of breeding plan
Nitrogen Plant Equipment installation
Support private AI service providers (kits
including cell phone)
Animal identification and performance
recording (software, equipment and training)
4 Extension
Prepare, publish and distribute dairy cattle
management training manuals
Training of national dairy master trainers (in
country and study tour abroad)
5 Research
Infrastructure of livestock research centers and
farm stations rehabilitated (infrastructure and
lab equipment)
6 Marketing and Value Addition

41
No Investment Intervention Investment cost (10^6 RWF)
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Strengthen the capacity of milk quality and
safety control laboratory
Strengthen existing dairy cooperatives
Establish new and re-establish non-functional
dairy cooperatives (training, sensitization,
equipping and facilities)
Strengthen the capacity of cooperatives to
enable them give services like milk collection,
extension, health, AI, financial
Organize and capacity building of milk
collectors (kits including bicycle)
Organize milk traders
Strengthen existing MCCs
Establish new milk collection points
Establish new MCCs
Strengthen the capacity of National Dairy
Farmers Federation of Rwanda (NDFFR)
Construction of 2 milk processing plants
Continue and expand “One cup of milk per
child” program

42
Complementary intervention and success requirements

The following are crucial aspects of the dairy improvement interventions and success
requirements
 Improving the use of the capacity of the Milk Collecting Centers (MCCs) and dairy plants
 Infrastructure development (feeder roads, water, electricity, crushes, etc.)
 Establishment of community kraals (igikumba cy’umudugudu), and the support and
follow up given to the GIRINKA program
 Strengthening animal feed factories and distribution selling points across the country
 Putting in place grading and pricing systems for animal products
 Increase access to finance/loans through rural banks and credit associations
 Making livestock insurance available
 Continued use of improved technologies
 Herd book development - introduction of the farm data recording policy
 Empowering and supporting the Rwanda Council of Veterinary Doctors (RCVD)
 Increasing the number of public and private extension workers
 Planning and carrying out an extensive crossbreeding/breeding scheme using AI, AI with
synchronizing hormone and/or bull service with quality dairy bull breeds
 Improving the efficiency of AI, AI with synchronizing hormone and/or bull
crossbreeding/breeding services
 Encouraging private health, extension and AI service providers
 Enforcing forage, concentrate feed and forage seed quality standards
 Creating a conducive environment for production and marketing of feeds and feed seeds
 Enforcing milk quality standards and supporting full capacity functioning of milk
processing plants.

Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD) Production under RLI

CSD Targets under RLI

 The number of crossbreed dairy cattle in the CSD will increase from the current number
of about 17 thousand to about 18 thousand in 2021/22. The growth rate of crossbred
cattle number in the grazing based (Gishwati) CSD will be zero as the grazing land
already has reached the carrying capacity established by the GoR. In the case of non-
grazing based CSD, the number of crossbred cattle is expected to grow by about 19%
(Table 5).
 The production of milk from the CSD system will increase from 22 million liters in the
base year (2016/17) to 45 million liters in 2021/22, a 106% increase from the base year
(Table 6). More change in milk production is expected in the non-grazing based CSD
(124%) than grazing based (Gishwati) CSD (98%).
 Annual average milk production of a cow in the CSD system will increase from around
2,200 lt/year in the base year to about 4,400 lt/year in 2021/22, a 104% increase in
productivity (Table 7). Grazing based (Gishwati) CSD is expected to show more increase

43
 (109%) than non-grazing based CSD (78%). This is due to the lower initial level of
productivity of the grazing based (Gishwati) CSD dairy cows.
 Due to the dairy improvement interventions in the CSD system, the GDP contribution of
milk from the CSD is expected to increase from about 3 billion RWF in 2016/17 to 5.7
billion RWF in 2021/22, increase in 95% (Table 8). Similar to the milk production, this
increase in GDP contribution of non-grazing based CSD comes from both increasing the
cattle number and productivity increase; as opposed to the grazing based (Gishwati)
CSD, in which case the increase in GDP contribution comes only from the change in
productivity.

Key challenges and strategies related to CSD under RLI

Many of the challenges and strategies listed in the IFD section are also pertinent for
commercial specialized dairy (CSD). Thus, only specific challenges and strategies which are
important to CSD are listed here.
Table 13: Key challenges and strategies related to CSD under RLI
Key challenges Strategies
1. Feed availability and quality
 Lack of commercial scale forage  Making land available for commercial forage
production production by investors;
 Shortage of concentrate feed  Enforcing feed quality standards, quality
and roughage (both in quality monitoring and control;
and quantity)  Promoting the establishment of flour mills and oil
 Lack of effective feed quality processing plants which will make more
control and standards concentrate feed ingredients available i.e. wheat
enforcement mechanisms bran, wheat short and seed cakes;
2. Marketing and processing
 Shortage of dairy technologists.  Building the capacity of the dairy technology
 Inadequate number of MCCs training institute (s).
and under performance of  Improving the efficiency of existing and establishing
existing ones new MCCs and co-operatives
3. Policy and investment support
 Poor milk quality control and  Enforcing milk-quality standards as well as grading
enforcement and pricing policies;
 Limited number of commercial  Enforcing an effective land acquisition policy for
specialized dairy farms and milk dairy investments (preferential treatment for
processing plants; accessing land for specialized dairy production, milk
processing and feed production);
 Providing incentives for investors to establish
specialized dairy farms and dairy processing plants:

44
 Interventions to achieve CSD targets under RLI

The major interventions proposed to improve the CSD system are feed improvement
(production, marketing and processing of more and better quality feed), increase in the
number of crossbred dairy cattle and CSD farms, supporting private AI and health service
providers to increase services to CSD farmers, and improved marketing of milk and milk
products. Most of the interventions proposed in the IFD section will also work for the CSD
system. The interventions listed below are assumed to be more related to the CSD system,
though they also work for the IFD system.
 Improve the productivity of grazing land in Gishwati by over sowing with improved grass
and leguminous forage seeds used and use of fertilizer where applicable
 Improve production, marketing and quality control of forage and forage seeds through
strengthening existing regulatory bodies
 Improve quality control of processed feeds and industrial by-products used as feed in
the dairy system
 Promote allocation of land for production of improved pasture/forage
 Create an industry for producing feed additives (minerals, vitamins, amino-acids)
 Increase availability of cereals (e.g. importation)
 Promote the use of concentrates/processed feeds from feed processing plants
 Promote the use of recommended rate of external and internal parasite treatments
 Ensure that all animals that need vaccination against endemic (ECF, BQ, brucellosis,
Rabies,), epidemic diseases (FMD, LSD, RVF) receive vaccines
 Promote private vet service providers
 Farmers and dairy operators receive intensive dairy cattle management trainings
(feeding, breeding, deworming, tick control, hygiene and milk handling and transport)
 Improve the efficiency of AI service through promoting private AI practitioners and
training of AI technicians
 Expand performance and pedigree records

Interventions proposed to improve marketing and processing under the IFD section will also
be equally important to the CSD system growth and development.

Assumptions and Targets for the CSD systems under RLI

I. Grazing based commercial dairy (Gishwati rangeland milk shed)

Assumptions10 hold for those adopting the dairy improvement interventions in the grazing
based commercial dairy (Gishwati rangeland milkshed):
 Parturition rate to increase to 85% (0.85)
 Mortality to decrease by 25% to 50%
 The number of cattle per herd (farm) assumed to remain the same (zero growth rate
(0%))
 Lactation length to extend from 270 to 300 days
 Daily milk production increases from the current average 10 lt/day to 18 lt/day

10The assumptions below are mainly dependent on the ability of the milk shed to collect the milk produced in the Gishwati
rangeland. Here, it is assumed that all the infrastructure (road, MCCs …) will be in place to increase marketing and
collection of milk from the milk shade to 80% in five years from the current very low level.

45
  Amount of purchased concentrate/processed feed to increase by at least 4 kg/day per
lactating cow.
 Expenditure on veterinary services and forage seed purchase will double

II. Non-grazing based commercial dairy (Urban and per-urban CSD)

The following assumptions hold for those who adopt the interventions in the Commercial
non-grazing based dairy.
 Parturition rate increases to 90%
 Mortality decreases by 10% to 20%
 The growth rate for the number of crossbred cattle will be about 4%
 Lactation length to increase from 280 to 300 days
 Daily milk production to increase from the current average 15 lt/day to 25 lt/day
 Amount of purchased concentrate/processed feed to increases by at least 5
kg/day/lactating cow
 Expenditure on veterinary services will increase by 50%

Investments in CSD under RLI

The investments listed under the IFD, above, work equally for CSD and the investment will
be shared among both IFD and CSD systems

Impacts of dairy improvement intervention on CSD

Milk production
 Due to the dairy improvement interventions in CSD, the production of milk in the system
is expected to increase from about 22 million liters to 45 million liters over five years
(2016-2020), an increase in 106% (Table, 6).

Change in milk productivity per cow

 Annual milk production of a cow in the CSD system will increase from about 2,200
lt./year in the base year to about 4,400 lt./year in 2021/22, a 104% increase in
productivity (Table 7).

Contribution to GDP
 Dairy improvement intervention in the CSD increases the GDP contribution of milk from
the system from the current 2.9 billion RWF to about 5.7 billion RWF, a 95% increase in
five years (Table, 8)

Activities time line and sequencing for CSD: Gantt chart

The Gantt chart presented in the IFD improvement section, above, works equally for both
CSD and IFD systems

46
Complementary intervention and success requirements for CSD

The following are crucial aspects of the dairy improvement interventions and success
requirements for the CSD system:
 Provide incentives to investors and ease the bureaucracy to establish CSD farms.
 Make land accessible for forage production for the CSD farms and forage producers
 Enforce milk quality standards and payment schemes
 Support establishment/functioning of milk processing plants
 Enforce forages, concentrate feed and forage seed quality standards and ensure
conducive environment for investment in production and marketing of feeds and feed
seeds

Medium Level of Investment Scenario (MLI)

The above proposed dairy interventions and the resulting improvements are the product of
the RLI scenario applied in the livestock sector of Rwanda. What will be the impact of
reducing this investment? Likely the impact will be reduced at least by half. An additional
scenario analysis called Medium Level of Investment (MLI) Scenario is done to see the
impact of reducing RLI investment. In the MLI scenario it is assumed that the RLI option
would only be followed through the 3rd year of the 5-year LMP. Under the MLI scenario, the
adoption rate of farmers and coverage of the dairy improvement technologies are assumed
to be half the rates in the RLI scenario. Table 14 below summarizes the national milk
production and GDP contribution under the MLI scenario and compares it with the other
two investment level scenarios (BAU and RLI).

Table 14. Milk production and GDP contribution at three investment level scenarios by
2021/22
BAU
Investment
Baseline scenario MLI scenario RLI scenario
Livestock product 2016/17 (2021/22) (2021/22) (2021/22)
National milk 747 1,041 1,082 1,230
production (in
million)
Milk GDP 113 158 158 173
contribution (in
billion RWF)

As shown in Table 14 above, the medium investment scenario results in a slight increase in
milk production and almost the same milk GDP contribution as the BAU investment
scenario. The RLI scenario, on the other hand, shows a significant increase in both milk
production and GDP contribution over the baseline, the BAU scenario, and the MLI scenario.
The total cost of investment in the MLI scenario is about 25 billion RWF and is summarized
in Table 15 below. This investment is half of the RLI, but brings little benefits over the BAU
scenario.

47
Table 15. Five year dairy improvement investment capital costs under the MLI scenario (half
the investment of the RLI scenario)
No Investment Investment cost (10^6 RWF)
Intervention 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total
1 Animal Feeding 348 336 17 4 11 715
2 Animal Health 77 72 44 97 50 340
3 Animal Breeding and
Genetics Investments 720 537 452 468 465 2,581
4 Extension 135 8 - - - 143
5 Research 187 415 - 477 415 1,494
6 Marketing and Value
Addition 1,338 2,267 7,237 1,873 7,247 19,962
GRAND TOTAL
INVESTMENT 2,804 3,635 7,749 2,919 8,188 25,234

Conclusions
The interventions proposed to improve cattle milk production and productivity in the RLI
will transform traditional farms engaged in family dairy into more market-oriented
improved family dairy systems (IFD) by:
 Raising and realizing the genetic potential of local breeds for significantly higher milk
production through crossbreeding with exotic dairy breeds using AI with or without
synchronizing hormone, or use of bull services, combined with better feed and health
services.

Milk production and productivity of the commercial specialized dairy system (CSD) will also
increase significantly by:
 Bringing more crossbred cattle into the commercial cattle dairy system; and
 Increasing the availability of quality forage and concentrate feeds by improving forage
and concentrate feed production and marketing.

Local cattle, or the vast majority of individual animals, also represent huge potential to
bridge the national milk consumption and production gap. The intervention – mainly
targeted at improving animal reproductive and weight gain performance – also increases
animal productivity and total milk production significantly in all typology zones. These
increases are achieved by:
 The improvement of natural grazing (pasture and rangelands), coupled with health
interventions to reduce mortality.

These combined interventions could result in:

 A 65% increase in national cattle milk production over the period of 2016/17 – 2021/22.
The production of cow milk could increase from about 746 million liters by 2016/17 to
1.2 billion liters in 2021/22.

In addition to the above activities, the critical conditions which need emphasis for success of
the plan are:
 Encouraging the private sector to invest in feed production and CSD farms;

48
 Ensuring availability of more and better feed, forage seed, forage production and
marketing, and health services in all areas, whether breed improvement is implemented
or not;
 Ensuring more effective extension services to support production, processing and
marketing of quality milk

It should also be noted that the following policy and institutional challenges need to be
addressed to bring about the projected outputs:
 Animal breeding strategy and regulation of animal breeding carried out
 Livestock identification, traceability and disease surveillance reporting systems enforced
 Enforcement of live animal and animal product traceability policy
 Enforcement of milk products grading and incentive payments for milk quality
 Enforcement and establishment of regulations for animal nutrition; standards on animal
commercial feeds, crops residues, formulation of feeds, etc.
 Standards on livestock infrastructure development enforced (slaughterhouses,
laboratories, MCCs, milk processing factories, etc.)
 Standards for vet and AI services and pharmaceuticals and supplies enforced
 Strengthening the functional linkages and collaboration of government institutions from
national to grassroots level, for enforcement of: all quality regulations and standards;
livestock and animal products identification and traceability; and disease surveillance
reporting systems

49
Red meat value chain development roadmap
(2017/18– 2021/22)

50
Red meat VC development roadmap (2017/18 – 2021/22)

Introduction
Rwanda produced about 58,580 metric tons of red meat in 2016/2017, wherein 74 % is beef
and the remaining 26% comes from sheep and goats. The red meat produced is
predominately for domestic consumption, with little exports. Rather Rwanda imports a
good deal of its meat and has a long way to go to meeting its domestic demand for red
meat, and be able to export. There are technical, policy and institutional measures required
to boost production and closing the domestic production-consumption gap to be able to
pave the way for exporting.

Vision
The projected production of red meat by 2021/22 is achieved and Rwanda will be able to
meet the domestic demand for red meat arising from a rapidly growing population,
increasing urbanization, and rising incomes; and Rwanda will be able to engage in the
competitive international market so that live animal and meat exports will take place to
generate foreign exchange earnings.

Investment scenarios analyzed

To create the red meat roadmap, three levels of investment scenarios and their implications
for total red meat production and contributions of the red meat systems to GDP are
examined here to provide three investment choices for the decision makers in Rwanda; the
government, private investors and development partners (donors). These scenarios are
referred to here as BAU (Business As Usual), MLI (Medium Level of Investment) and RLI
(Recommended Level of Investment). BAU presents the base case scenario analysis or the
implications of the current level of investment and spending profile on red meat production
and GDP contributions throughout the LMP analysis period of 5 years. RLI is the
recommended level of investment which could achieve the agreed upon national
development objectives. The MLI option analyzes the implications and impacts on red meat
production and GDP of the third option created for decision makers who face a budget
constraint. It represents a medium level of investment between the BAU and the RLI option.
For this 3-option analysis, the MLI level of investment was obtained by assuming the RLI
option would only be followed through the 3rd year (see tables 18, 19 and 20 below) of the
5-year LMP period. See the chicken road map for detail LMP three investment scenario
analysis.

51
Overall targets under the recommended level of investment scenario (RLI)

The overall target is to reach production of 79,586 tonnes of red meat by 2021/22, through
improvement of feed from grazing land resources, animal health services, and animal
genetics; and use of appropriate feeding technology. By 2021/22, a total of 64,400 heads of
animals will pass through feedlot and non-traditional (culled dairy cattle) operations; and
the contribution of local breeds to the overall red meat produced will be significantly
reduced, leading the way for higher productivity improved beef breeds, young dairy calves
and culled cows.

Specific targets under RLI

The production targets are given for the specific red meat production systems by production
typology zones in the tables below.

To facilitate the use of the analytical model created for this LSA study, a typology of the
different livestock systems was developed, consisting at the first level in the (a) Low Rainfall
Low Altitude (LRLA) zone which predominantly covers the eastern savanna and the eastern
plateau of Rwanda with a significant feature of farmland based grazing; (b) the medium
rainfall and medium altitude (MRMA) zone which is predominantly found in the central
plateau of Rwanda; and (c) the high rainfall high altitude (HRHA) which covers the western
highlands, or the Lake Kivu and South West regions. Livestock production practices which
are modern, and which are to a large extent independent of location and the broader
zonation are classified as specialized production (SP) systems and analyzed independently
due to their unique modern production characteristics and commercial market orientation.

Table 16: Annual increase in number of cattle RLI

Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 %
2016/17 Change
LRLA local 209496 201,410 193,636 186,161 178,975 172,067 -18%
cross 292822 316248 341548 368872 398382 430252 47%
MRMA Local 235092 225,172 215,669 206,568 197,851 189,502 -19%
Cross 285171 307,985 332,624 359,234 387,972 419,010 47%
HRHA local 147176 140,936 134,960 129,238 123,758 118,511 -19%
cross 203932 220,247 237,867 256,896 277,448 299,643 47%
Feedlot local 556 1,155 2,398 4,978 10,335 21,456 3,756%
Dairy with local 13771 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 0%
grazing
Dairy with no cross 3199 3,371 3,552 3,743 3,944 4,156 30%
grazing
Total 1,391,219 1,442,696 1,496,078 1,551,434 1,608,840 1,668,369 20%

 The total number of cattle shows an increase of 20% (1.4 to 1.7 million by 2021/22)
 The total number of cattle in the Feedlot system11 shows a growth of 3,756% (from 556
heads in 2016/17 to 21,456 in 2021/22)

11
Per cycle, and three cycles per year

52
Table 17: Annual increase in number of sheep and goats in the traditional system under RLI
Sheep Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 change
2016/17
LRLA local 44,088 44,648 45,215 45,789 46,371 46,960 7%
cross 21,682 21,978 22,277 22,579 22,887 23,198 7%
MRMA local 234,896 240,910 247,077 253,402 259,889 266,542 13%
cross 73,721 75,572 77,469 79,413 81,406 83,450 13%
HRHA local 295,608 304,979 314,646 324,621 334,911 345,528 17%
cross 53,484 55,190 56,951 58,767 60,642 62,577 17%
Total 723,480 743,317 63,698 784,637 06,151 828,254 14%
Goat
LRLA local 1,126,400 1,188,690 1,254,424 1,323,794 1,397,000 1,474,254 31%
cross 32,351 35,055 37,986 41,162 44,603 48,332 49%
MRMA local 864,651 910,651 959,098 1,010,122 1,063,860 1,120,457 30%
cross 55,879 60,550 65,612 71,098 77,041 83,482 49%
HRHA local 794,068 832,421 872,627 914,775 958,959 1,005,276 27%
cross 67,643 73,298 79,425 86,065 93,260 101,057 49%
Total 2,940,991 3,100,984 3,269,681 3,447,554 3,635,105 3,832,858 30%

 The total sheep population in all production zones shows a 14% increase (reaching
828,000 by 2021/22)
 The total number of goats in all production zones shows an increase of 30% by 2021/22
(from 2.9 million in 2016/17 to 3.8 million in 2021/22)

Table 18: Contribution of cattle to national red meat production (in tonnes) under RLI
Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 change
2016/17
LRLA local 5,124 4,940 4,762 4,591 4,425 4,266 -17%
cross 10,384 11,251 12,190 13209 14,312 15,507 49%
MRMA Local 6,092 5,885 5,685 5,492 5,306 5,126 -16%
Cross 10,050 10,902 11,826 12,827 13,914 15,093 50%
HRHA local 3,819 3,688 3,561 3,438 3,320 3,206 -16%
cross 7,227 7,849 8,523 9,256 10,051 10,915 51%
42,696 44,515 46,547 48,813 51,328 54,113 27%

Table 19: Contribution of cattle Feedlot and dairy sub sector to national red meat
production (in tonnes)
Meat production Base year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 change
2016/17
Fattening system local 64 134 278 576 1,196 2,484 NA
Per-Urban Dairy local 622 629 637 645 653 661 6%
cross 170 180 191 202 214 227 34%

 The potential contribution of cattle to national red meat production grows from 43,553
(in 2016/17) to 57,500 tonnes by 2021/22 (32% increase).

53
 The contribution of Feedlots to national red meat production grows from almost zero (in
2016/17) to 2,484 tonnes by 2021/22.
 The contribution of the dairy subsector systems to national red meat production,
through male calves and culled cows grows from 170 (in 2016/17) to 227 tonnes by
2021/22 (34% increase).

Table 20: Contribution of Sheep and Goat meat to national red meat production (in tonnes)
under RLI
Meat production 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 change
Sheep
LRLA local 157 164 171 178 186 194 23%
cross 106 110 115 121 126 132 24%
MRMA local 837 884 934 986 1,041 1,099 31%
cross 354 374 395 418 441 466 32%
HRHA local 1054 1,119 1,189 1,263 1,342 1,425 35%
cross 263 280 298 316 337 358 36%
Total 2,771 2,932 3,102 3,282 3,473 3,674 33%
Goats
LRLA local 4523 4,920 5,352 5,823 6,334 6,890 52%
cross 216 242 270 302 338 377 74%
MRMA local 3507 3,767 4,047 4,347 4,670 5,017 43%
cross 372 416 466 522 585 656 76%
HRHA local 3187 3,444 3,721 4,020 4,344 4,694 47%
cross 450 504 565 632 708 794 76%
Total 12255 13,297 14,427 15,653 16,984 18,428 50%

 The amount of sheep meat produced grows from 2,700 tonnes (in 2016/17) to 3,674
tonnes by 2021/22 (33% increase).
 The amount of goat meat produced grows from 12,225 tonnes (in 2016/17) to 18,428
tonnes by 2021/22 (50% increase).

54
Improved Traditional Cattle, Sheep and Goat
Table 21: Key challenges and interventions related to improving red meat VC under the RLI
scenario
Challenges Interventions to address challenges
Feed
 Lack of sufficient grazing areas to meet the  Sensitization on management of grazing lands
feed needs of the animals  Rehabilitation of grazing land through over-sowing
 Poor quality grazing land resources with improved grass and legumes;
 Inadequate knowledge on the use of crop  Training and capacity building and skill
residues and by-products development to increase the use and conservation
 Limited availability of concentrates and of crop residues and by products.
feed supplements, when needed.  Increase in the availability of cereals
 Increased and better use of agro-industrial by-
products from the processing of cereals/grains as
concentrates for animal feeding.
 Promotion of appropriate storage and marketing of
concentrates and feed supplements
 Training of farmers on forage seed multiplication,
proper feeding, and availing improved plant
materials
Genetics
 Low genetic improvement extension  The challenges of improving the genetic potential
coverage of local animals could be overcome through
 Poor farm genetics recording scheme and selection within the local breeds; establishing
lack of harmonization community based breeding programs, which
 Lack of proven adapted exotic breeds for include developing a farm recording scheme; as
beef production well as promoting an animal identification and
 Sheep and goat parent stock lacking traceability scheme.
 Use of cross breeding programs to improve
production and productivity of Cattle, sheep, and
goats
 Importation/acquisition of improved parent stocks
to support breeders
 Harmonizing existing livestock data
Animal Health
 Poor animal health extension advice;  Strengthening animal health regulatory capacity
 Inefficient animal health services; under the coordination of the Livestock Sector
 Inadequate supplies and qualities of Ministry
vaccines and drugs; and  Promote private service providers
 Poor quality control of drugs and  Enforce FMD and CBPP vaccinations
supplies.  Increase efficiency in animal/animal products
movement permits
Marketing and processing
 Poor market infrastructure;  Strategic capacity building
 Poor technical knowledge of VC actors,  Building infrastructure
especially processing technicians;  Establishing slaughter houses and modern abattoirs
 Inadequate market information; and
 Poor linkages between producers and
processors and export abattoirs.

55
Key assumptions to achieve targets under RLI12

Meat production from local cattle

Intervention areas (production zones): Cattle meat improvement interventions can be
practiced in all over the country and all the livestock production zones (low, medium and
high rainfall zones).

Priority interventions and assumptions

Feed and feeding
 Establish backyard, hedge and live fence with improved grass and leguminous feed
production at HH level. Feeds like Pennisetum, Brachiaria, Leucaena, Sesbana,
Calliandra, Chloris gayana, Panicum Maximum, desmodium sp, …)
 Improve production, marketing and quality control of forage and forage seeds through
strengthening existing regulatory bodies
 Improve quality control of processed feeds and industrial by-products used as feed in
the dairy system
 Increase the use of crop residues e.g.: maize drying on the field to be used and
conserved for animal feed
 Over-sow grazing land with improved grass and leguminous forage seeds and use of
fertilizer where applicable
 Allocate land for production of improved pasture/forage
 The timely harvesting of grass, and storage and conservation of hay.
 Invest in the production of forage seeds by GoR
 Increase the efficient use of forages and crop residues (e.g. conservation)
 Increase the available cereals (e.g. importation)
 Increase the use of concentrates from animal feed plants
 Mobilizing farmers associations to organize group purchase and distribution of
processed feed
 Research on:
 Successful forages species according to zones
 The real quantity of forages and post-harvest that Rwanda can produce in
comparison to actual and projected demands
Health
 Coverage of health service will reach 100%
 Privet vet service providers will be promoted.
 Farmers that adopt the recommended rate of tick control treatments and internal
parasite control will reach 60% in the coming 5 years.
 All animals that need vaccination against endemic (ECF, BQ, brucellosis, Rabies,),
epidemic diseases (FMD, LSD, RVF) will receive vaccines.
 Enforce FMD, CBPP free Rwanda to improve the acceptance of products from the
country within 5 years.
 Rate (%) of animal/animal product movement permits issued will reach 100% in five
years

12
The detailed red meat interventions for all production are presented in the LSA report.

56
  Strengthen veterinary diagnosis laboratories

Extension
 Farmers will receive more intensive training in relation to local cattle management
(feeding, breeding, deworming, tick control, hygiene and milk handling and transport)
 Capacity of extension agents to be build
 Increase extension services delivery through farmers associations

Genetics
 The population of local breed cattle will decrease while the number of crossbred and the
total number of cattle increases. The growth rate of cattle number should slow down
and eventually become zero percent depending on the available feed.
 The population of local breed decreases by an annual growth rate of about -4%.
 The overall cattle population will be growing with only 2.7% the first five years and
1.63% and 0.5% the second and third five years.
 Improve the efficiency of AI service through promoting privet AI practitioners and
training of technicians
 Continuous research on exotic meat breeds
 Establish performance (and pedigree) records

Marketing and processing

 Establish at least one export abattoirs13

Meat from Sheep and Goats: Investment options

Intervention area/s (production zone/s): Meat production from sheep can be practiced
more in medium and high rainfall areas; and meat production form goats in all over the
country and all the livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones).

I. Priority interventions and assumptions

Feed and feeding

 Promote backyard, hedge and live fence with improved grass and leguminous feed
production at HH level. Feeds like Pennisetum, Brachiaria, Leucaena, Sesbana,
Calliandra, Chloris gayana, Panicum Maximum, desmodium sp, …)
 Improve quality control of processed feeds and industrial by-products used as feed in
the dairy system
 Increase the use of crop residues e.g: maize drying on the field to be used and conserved
for animal feed

In bigger farms:
 Over-sow grazing land with improved grass and leguminous forage seeds and use
of fertilizer where applicable
 Allocate land and produce pasture/fodder
 Timely harvest grass, and conserve hay.

13
The exact number of abattoirs to be determined after getting future production estimates

57
Health
 Increase health coverage to reach 100%
 Establish private vet service providers
 Increase the number of farmers that adopt the recommended rate of tick control
treatments and internal parasite control. Adoption to reach 60% in the coming 5 years.
 Vaccination against endemic (PPR, BQ/Anthrax), epidemic diseases (FMD, RVF) will
receive vaccines.
 Improve the acceptance of products from Rwanda by creating an FMD, CBPP free
Rwanda within 5 years.
 Increase the Rate (%) of animal/animal product movement permits issued, to reach
100% in five years
 Strengthen capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines, and supervise mass
vaccination programs
 Strengthen veterinary diagnosis laboratories

Extension
 Carry out intensive training in relation to local and crossbreed goats and sheep
management (feeding, breeding, deworming, tick control, hygiene and milk handling
and transport)
 Build the Capacity of extension agents
 Increase extension services delivery through farmers associations

Genetics
 Increase the population of crossbreed sheep (mostly Merino) in recommended areas,
where owners practice good management
 Establish record on the performance of crossbreed goats
 Establish an on-farm herd/flock recording and selection scheme in the next 5 years to
practice local breed selection and breed improvement
 Improve the buck to ewe ratio at village level

Investments under RLI

 The time horizon for the project is 5 years.

 Total investment budget is estimated at RWF 130,527 million, and 58% of the budget
source is public. Private will provide 42% of the total budget respectively (Table 23) to
be spent over the five year plan of the projects.

58
Table 22: Five-year Red Meat production improvement investment costs for RLI, the recommended investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22)

Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget

Investment interventions
(million RWF)
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Feeds interventions
Supporting farmers on improving grazing land through over-
5,500 2000 2000 1000 600 11,100
sowing with improved grass and legumes
Training and capacity building and skill development to
increase the use and conservation of crop residues and by 2000 1000 1000 1000 - 5,000
products.
Introducing technology on use of agro-industrial by-products
from the processing of cereals/grains as concentrates for 1200 1000 1000 500 400 4100
animal feeding
Establish appropriate storage and marketing of concentrates
3500 2000 1800 1000 - 8300
and feed supplements
Training of farmers on forage seed multiplication, proper
575 350 275 245 245 1690
feeding, and availing improved plant materials
Total feed 12,775 6,350 6,075 3,745 1,245 30,190
Animal Health interventions
Establish a national guideline for disease monitoring and
23 - - - - 23
controlling
Anti-parasite control and vaccination 2000 3000 4000 4500 4500 18000
Disease surveillance 800 1000 700 700 700 3900
Awareness creation among small producers on sanitation
700 500 500 500 450 2650
and housing
Total animal health 3523 4500 5200 5700 5650 24573
Genetics and breeding interventions
Improve the genetic potentials of indigenous cattle-Ankole
600 500 450 450 450 2,000
through selection
Importation of suitable breeds for feedlots 16000 13500 7200 5700 5000 41,700

59
 Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget
Investment interventions
(million RWF)
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Establish an on-farm herd/flock recording and selection
scheme in the next 5 years to practice local breed selection 600 600 600 600 600 3,000
and breed improvement
Total genetics 17200 14600 8250 6750 6050 46700
Marketing, extensions, and research interventions
2 Big slaughter houses 1672 0 0 0 0 1672
1 Modern abboiter 1200 0 0 0 0 1200
Building the capacity of meat technology training staff 2500 1000 240 200
3940
Developing programs to ensure food safety and animal
1200
health through monitoring of abattoirs 1200
Establishing new feedlots infrastructure 7000 0 0 0 7000
Establish quarantine facility 4000 4000
Extension services and research 2000 1000 800 1200 5000 10000
Total marketing 19572 2000 1040 1400 5000 29012

60
Table 23:Total investment and recurrent costs for red meat VC development under RLI
Investment category Responsible actor (000 000 Total investment
RWF) cost (million RWF)
Public Private
Animal feeding 21,890 8,300 30,190
Animal health 22,073 2,500 24,573
Animal breeding and genetics 5,000 41,700 46,700
Research 2,300 700 3,000
Extension services 3800 420 4,220
Marketing and value addition 18,000 3,844 21,844
Total investment 73,063 57,464 130,527

Table 23 below shows that 36% of the total red meat investment budget will go for animal
breeding and genetics, and 73% this budget category will be sourced from the private sector
(Table 23). The private sector investment amount for marketing and value addition is also
quite small, especially compared to the public investment.

Table 24: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas
for improving the red meat VC under RLI
Key investment area Proportion (%) by Proportions by key
responsible actor investment area
Public Private
Animal feeding 30% 14% 23%
Animal health 30% 4% 19%
Animal breeding and genetics 7% 73% 36%
Research 3% 1% 2%
Extension services 5% 1% 3%
Marketing and value addition 25% 7% 17%
100% 100% 100%

Impacts

Production impacts under RLI

Table 25 shows that under the RLI, the increases in red meat production from cattle, sheep
and goats from 2016/17 (the baseline year) to 2021/22 is 32%, 33%, and 50 %, respectively.
Cattle (72%) and goats (23%) are the primary sources of red meat in 2021/22. Total red
meat grows from 58,579 tonnes in 2016/17 to 79,586 tonnes in 2021/22, an increase by
36%.

61
Table 25: Change in red meat production from cattle, sheep and goats under RLI (in tonnes)
% Change
2016/17 in
Species (baseline) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 production
Cattle 43554 46040 48667 51445 54380 57484 32%
Sheep 2771 2932 3102 3282 3473 3674 33%
Goats 12254 13296 14426 15653 16984 18428 50%
Total 58579 62267 66196 70380 74837 79586 36%

Table 26 shows negative changes in production of meat from local cattle breeds and big
positive production changes over time from crossbreds in all the production zones. This
negative change in meat production from local breeds is expected due to the population
decreases of local cattle breeds as they are replaced by the crosses or pure exotic breeds.
The Girinka program or “One Cow per Family Program” of MINAGRI is transforming dairying
and meat production in Rwanda, through the provision of pregnant crossbred cows to
smallholders. As well, the number of cattle going through the feedlot fattening system for
meat production is expected to increase rapidly, partly as a result of the government’s Gako
program which is seeking to improve the meat breeds in Rwanda, especially with Ankole
cattle.

Table 26: Red meat production from local and crossbred cattle by system and typology zone
for the baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with the RLI intervention (in tonnes)
Production Cattle Total red meat Total red meat in change in production due
zone in 2016/17 2021/22 (tonnes)- to red meat intervention
(tonnes) - with red meat
baseline intervention
LRLA local 5124 4,266 -17%
cross 10384 15507 49%
MRMA local 6092 5,126 -16%
cross 10051 15,093 50%
HRHA local 3819 3,206 -16%
cross 7228 10,915 51%
Fattening local 64 2,484 3756%
Dairy with grazing local 622 661 6%
Dairy with no cross
grazing
170 227 34%
Total 43554 57,484 32%

GDP impact

Table 27 shows that under RLI the GDP contribution from red meat coming from cattle,
sheep and goats from all production zones could show an overall increase by 26%
comparing the base year with the 2021/22 projection. This amounts to RFW 95,145 in
2016/17, and RWF 120,161 in 2021/22.

62
Table 27: GDP contribution from red meat improvement under RLI (in RWF millions)
% Change
2016/1 2017/1 2020/2 in
Species 7 8 2018/19 2019/20 1 2021/22 production
Cattle 66,126 68,479 70,916 73,439 76,052 78,758 19%
Sheep 4,846 5,091 5,349 5,619 5,904 6,202 28%
Goats 24,173 26,060 28,094 30,288 32,652 35,201 46%
114,68
Total 95,145 99,692 104,457 109,449 0 120,161 26%

Table 28: Cattle GDP for baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with red meat intervention in
all zones and systems (in RWF 000,000) under RLI
Total livestock GDP Total livestock % change in national
2016/17 (in RWF GDP 2021/22 (in livestock GDP
000,000) - baseline RWF 000,000) -
with red meat
intervention
LRLA local 7595 6,147 -19%
cross 16,411 22021 34%
MRMA Local 8,576 7,015 -18%
Cross 15,607 21,175 36%
HRHA local 5,384 4,397 -18%
cross 11,269 15,493 37%
Fattening local 38 1,491 3,756%
Dairy with grazing local 1050 852 -19%
Dairy with no cross 195 169 -13%
grazing
Total 66,126 78,758 19%

 The GDP contribution of red meat coming from cattle from all production zones and
systems could show an overall increase by 19% comparing the base year with the
2021/22 projection. This amounts to RWF 66,126 in 2016/17, and 78,758 RWF in
2021/22.

63
Table 29: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI
Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011
Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-
Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June
Anti- parasitic control
and treatment
Adult stock
immunization
Young stock
immunization
Animal disease
surveillance
Strategic feed
supplementation to the
dams
Introduction of
flock/herd recording
scheme
Fodder production
initiatives to get land
Grazing land
rehabilitation
Extension work to
support improved
feeding of cattle, sheep,
and goats

Complementary interventions and success requirements

 Empowering and supporting RCVD and increasing the number of extension agents.
 Infrastructure improvement (feeder road, water, electricity, crushes, etc.)
 Reinforcement of feedlots and animal feed factories and distribution through the selling
points across the country
 Strengthening the legal framework in the livestock sector (reinforcing the existing
framework, and reviewing, developing and enacting/enforcing the missing regulations)
 Encouraging the private sector to invest in meat slaughter and processing plants.
 Putting in place the grading and pricing of animal products
 Increasing access to loans banks
 Making livestock insurance available
 Improving technologies through livestock for records keeping
 Introduction through enacting a farm data records policy
 Introducing a practical herd recording system
 A special support to farmers associations such us R.P.F.A (Rwanda Pig Farmers
Association) and R.P.I.A (Rwanda Poultry industry Association) as the main actors in
meat value chain, for empowering and strengthening them.
 Provide avenue to the farmers associations to contribute to the extension of livestock
and an increase of meat production.
64
Specialized cattle feedlots and culled dairy cattle

Meat from improved dairy cattle

I. Intervention area(s) (production zone(s)):

Meat production from improved dairy can be practiced in all over the country and all the
livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones)

II. Priority interventions

 Promote the production of calf stall feeding and veal production system
 The minimum number of calves per unit farm that can have sufficient economic of scale
is about 20 calves/farm/cycle giving an average of about 3,000 USD/farm/year.

Meat from increase in the number of commercial big farms

I. Intervention area(s) (production zone(s)):

Intervention area(s) (production zone(s)): Meat production from big commercial farms is
being practiced in area designated for improved ranching system in the low rainfall
production area.

II. Priority interventions

 Farmers need to be recommended which specific breeds to rear in the farms
 Increase the herd size of big private farms (in Gako) by range of 20-30% through
purchase of additional heifers in the first three to four years; and maintaining constant
herd size, once the carrying capacity is reached.
 Promote and assist farm owners to practice more intensive production systems

Targets

Table 30: Contribution of the cattle feedlot system to national meat production (in tonnes)
under RLI
Amount of 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change
meat
(tonnes)
Fattening 64 134 278 576 1196 2484 3,756%

Table 31: Contribution of the dairy production system to national meat production (in
tonnes)
Amount of meat 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 %
(tonnes) change
Dairy with grazing 622 629 637 645 653 661 6%
Dairy with no 170 180 191 202 214 227 34%
grazing
Total 792 809 828 847 867 888 40%

65
Table 32: Challenges and interventions in the specialized systems under RLI
Challenges Interventions to address challenges
Feed
 Limited access to land for  Making land available to forage production
production of forage seed and investors;
forage;  Promoting production of forage for
 Unable to meet the feed demand commercial feedlots;
that is required at commercial  Promoting the establishment of flour mills
feedlots to make more concentrates available;
 Poor access to quality concentrate  Strengthening the feed quality control
feed; and inadequate concentrate authority to expand its operations
available  Promoting the establishment of agro-
 Lack of effective feed quality industries for increased availability of by-
control: standards and mechanisms products that could be used as feed
of enforcement missing supplements.

Animal Health
 Poor animal health extension Strengthening the animal health regulatory
advice; capacity under the coordination of the
 Inefficient animal health services; Livestock Sector Ministry is the main
 Inadequate supplies of drugs; thrust.
 Poor quality control of drugs and
supplies;
 Poor disease surveillance;
 A lack of traceability and
identification; and
 Inadequate quality control in
abattoirs.
Marketing and processing
 Absence of quality based pricing;  Building the capacity of meat technology
 Lack of holding area and feedlot training staff at the TMB;
space;  Increasing training of meat processing
 Lack of knowledge and skill on staff;
meat-cutting and –grading; and  Promoting forward contracting of feedlots
 Poor links to export abattoirs. and abattoirs; and
 Investing in export infrastructure for
animal holding and quarantine, as well as
programs to ensure food safety and animal
health through disease surveillance,
monitoring of abattoirs, animal
identification and traceability, etc.
Policy

66
Challenges Interventions to address challenges
 A lack of meat quality standards  Development of appropriate standards for
control and enforcement, grading, meat quality
and pricing policies;  Development guidelines on feed quality
 The policy on breeding not fully monitoring
implemented ;  Capacity building on quality control
 A need to strengthen feed
production and land acquisition for
feedlot investment;
 Inadequate feed quality monitoring
and controlling;
 Need for further incentives to
establish GAKO type feedlots
(including land access in
appropriate locations conducive to
feed production, linkages with
export market, and infrastructure –
road access, power and water
supply);

Interventions to achieve targets under RLI

Increasing the number of animals fattened

The specialized production feedlot system could be improved through better feed and
health services, increasing the number of cattle feedlot units, and the number of cattle
being fattened. Producers (fatteners) could be given training on cattle fattening procedures,
including cattle selection and feeding; and on improving the efficiency of the beef value
chain, targeting quality beef marketing.

Table 33: Projected number of cattle fattened under RLI

2016/17 2021/22 % change
Number of animals fattened/ unit/ year 556 21,456 3,757
Total cattle fattened14 1,668 64,368

Increasing the availability of feed ingredients required by cattle feedlots

Table 34: Estimated amount of additional concentrate feed needed for additional cattle
going to feedlot by the year 2021/22 under RLI
Number of animals Additional number of Additional
2016/17 2021/22 animals in 2021/22 concentrate/year
relative to 2016 (thousand
tonnes)
234,333 1,795,974 1,561,641 15616

 The additional concentrate needed per animal will be 0.01 tonnes per year.

14
Number of cycles per year is 3

67
Investments under RLI in cattle feedlot

Table 35: Investment in slaughter house establishment under RLI

Type of Cost per Number of Capacity Investment Area/ population
processing unit (RWF new cost/ plant covered
000,000) slaughter (RWF
houses 000,000)
Big slaughter 836 2 2,000 sheep 1672 Towns and cities
houses (with and goats and with 200,000
rendering 200 cattle per population
system) day
Modern 988 1 3,000 sheep 1200 Towns and cities
abattoir (with and goats and with 200,000
all required 700 cattle per population
facilities) day

Impacts RLI on cattle feedlot

Production

Table 36: Change in meat production from cattle feedlots (2016/17 to 2021/22) with feedlot
intervention under RLI
Products Total production Total production 2021/22 - % change in
2016/17 with commercial feedlots production
baseline intervention
Beef in tonnes
Cattle 43,553 57,484 32%

 Total red meat production from cattle increases by 32% in 2021/22, from 43,553 tones
in the base year, to 57,484 tonnes in 2021/22.

GDP from cattle feedlots under RLI

Table 37: Change in Livestock GDP due to interventions on cattle feedlots under RLI
Product Total livestock GDP Total livestock GDP 2021/22 % change in
(meat) 2016/17 (RWF (RWF 000,000) - with national
000,000) - baseline specialized feedlots livestock GDP
interventions
Cattle 66,126 78,758 19%

68
Table 38: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI
Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011
Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-
Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec June Dec June
Implementing the
roadmap for the
rationalization of PP
veterinary services
Anti-parasitic treatment
Adult stock vaccinations
Disease surveillance
Establishing quarantine
facilities
Establishing identification
and traceability tools
Quality control in
Abattoirs
Identifying potential
locations for feedlot
establishment
Creating new feedlots
Ensuring MoA support for
establishment of feedlots
in strategic locations
Establishing slaughter
houses

Complementary interventions and success requirements RLI

 Access enabled to sufficient production factors

 Promoting the conducive policy and investment environment required to attract and
facilitate private sector investment in feedlots and slaughter houses operations.

Medium Investment level scenario (MLI)

The medium level investment scenario (MLI) assumes a budget constraint to investing fully
(as in the recommended case -- RLI). The key assumption made here to simulate the MLI is
that only half of the RLI is made available due to the budget constraint.

Key challenges and interventions under MLI: Key challenges and interventions to achieve
the targets under the MLI remain the same as in the RLI for red meat production.

69
Impacts under MLI scenario

Table 39: Rwanda red meat production under BAU and MLI (2021/22)
2021/22 % difference %
2016/17 (base 2021/22 With MLI MLI/base difference
Livestock product year) BAU case year MLI/BAU
Cattle 43,554 53,728 55,552 28% 3%
Sheep 2,771 3,171 3,363 21% 6%
Goats 12,254 16,049 16,784 37% 5%
Total 58,579 72,948 75,699 29% 4%

Table 39 above shows that under the MLI scenario the impact on red meat production is
moderately high as compared with the baseline situation. However, when compared with
the BAU scenario the red meat production under the MLI option is higher by 4%.

Table 40: Rwanda red meat value added or GDP impacts under BAU and MLI (2021/22)
2021/22
2016/17 2021/22 With MLI % difference % difference
Red meat GDP (base year) BAU case MLI/base year MLI/BAU
Cattle 66,126 82,410 79,444.80 20% -4%
Sheep 4,846 5,538 5,789.60 19% 5%
Goats 24,173 31,615 33,007.80 37% 4%
Total 95,145 119,563 118,242.20 24% -1%

Similarly, in Table 40 above, the value added from all red meat animals under the MLI
scenario is higher than the baseline situation by 24% and lower than the BAU scenario by
1%.

Table 41: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart MLI

Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011
Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-
Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec June Dec June
Implementing the
roadmap for the
rationalization of PP
veterinary services
Anti-parasitic treatment
Adult stock vaccinations
Disease surveillance
Establishing quarantine
facilities
Establishing identification
and traceability tools
Quality control in Abattoirs
Identifying potential

70
Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011
Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-
Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec June Dec June
locations for feedlot
establishment
Creating new feedlots
Ensuring MoA support for
establishment of feedlots
in strategic locations
Establishing slaughter
houses

Table 42: Total investment and recurrent costs for red meat production under MLI
Investment category Responsible actor (000 000 RWF) Total investment
Public Private PPP cost (000 000 Tsh)
Animal feeding 10,945 4000 14,945
Animal health 11,037 1,250 12,287
Animal breeding and genetics 2,500 20,850 23,350
Research 1,200 350 1,550
Extension services 2000 210 2,210
Marketing and value addition 9,000 1,100 817 10,917
Total investment 36,682 27,760 817 65,259
As noted in table 42 above the total investment in the MLI is less than half of the RLI. This
represents a seriously constrained investment option.

71
Conclusions
 The MLI impact on production and value added is substantial when compared with the
baseline situation, but not encouraging at all when compared with the BAU situation.
This result demonstrates that livestock, in particular cattle, which have a long
production cycle require long-term and adequate investment commitments to realize
their potential. Short term and limited investment means that the investment ceases
before maturity, and thus ends up with limited production benefits, as depicted in the
MLI situation here. Hence, the MLI is not a recommended option at least for red meat
production improvement.
 Given the potential production increases under the RLI initiative, there is a significant
contribution made by the production systems i.e. the traditional cattle operations and
Feedlots, towards improving food security, closing the red meat consumption and
nutrition gap, and contributing towards economic growth. However, this can only be
realized if:
 The RL investments are implemented by the GoR and private investors in a timely
manner; and are adequately funded.
 Meeting the feed needs becomes a priority, and is followed by increasing pasture
access (where possible) and fodder production, as well as increasing the availability
of roughages, such as crop residues and agro-industrial by-products. The bulk of
additional concentrate feed needed, particularly in Feedlots, is expected to come
from investment by the private sector.
 The policy environment to attract and enable sustainable growth in feedlots is
continued and the vision of GAKO is fully implemented as a public and private
partnership.

Linkages are established for a viable stocker feeder program where the improved young
male stock from the traditional sector are channelled to feedlot operations, including under
GAKO, thus reducing the grazing pressure on the very limited grazing land in the traditional
system.
It must also be noted that the technical interventions alone will not bring about the
projected outcomes unless the existing policy and institutional challenges are addressed.

 Needed policies and strategies – to be enacted and implemented

 On-farm recording scheme policy
 Livestock products pricing policy
 Animal breeding strategy
 Livestock Coding System Policy
 Livestock identification & reporting system policy
 Livestock animal and product traceability policy

 Regulations and standards

 Regulations for animal breeding
 Regulations for animal nutrition; standards on animal commercial feeds, crops
residues, formulation of the feeds, honey, etc.
 Regulations for livestock products pricing and standards on animal products and
grading (milk, meat, honey, eggs, wool, hides and skins)

72
  Standards on livestock infrastructure development (slaughterhouses, laboratories,
MCCs, milk processing factories, etc.)
 Standards on vet services and pharmaceuticals and supplies

 Institutional framework
 Strengthening the functional linkages and collaboration of institutions from national
level to grassroots

73
Chicken value chain development roadmap
(2017/18-2021/22)

74
Chicken value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22)

Vision
The chicken industry in Rwanda will transition from largely subsistence to a more knowledge
intensive market oriented sub-sector adding growth and value to poultry products. Both the
family and specialized commercial operations will be transformed by using improved and
highly productive breeds to ensure household food and nutritional security and higher
incomes and significantly contribute to achieving the all-meat consumption needs of the
nation.

Investment scenarios analyzed

In the investment analysis done to create LMP roadmaps, three levels of investment
scenarios and their implications for total chicken production and contributions of the
chicken sub-sector to GDP are examined here to provide three investment choices for the
decision makers in Rwanda; the government, private investors and development partners
(donors). These scenarios are referred to here as BAU (Business As Usual), MLI (Medium
Level of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). BAU presents the base
case scenario analysis or the implications of the current level of investment and spending
profile on chicken meat and eggs production and GDP contributions throughout the LMP
analysis period of 5 years. RLI is the recommended level of investment which could achieve
the agreed upon national development objectives. The additional scenario or MLI option
analyzes the implications and impacts on chicken meat and eggs production and GDP of the
third option created for decision makers who face a budget constraint. It represents a
medium level of investment between the BAU and the RLI option which could not achieve
the national development objectives. For this 3-option analysis, the MLI level of investment
was obtained by assuming the RLI option would only be followed through the 3 rd year of the
5-year LMP period.

Transforming the traditional village chicken production system

Transformation of the traditional village chicken production system involves improvement

in the traditional chicken value chain (VC) through improved productivity and marketing and
scaling up of the commercial chicken sub system (CFC) and integrating it with the upper end
of the value chain.

Transforming the Traditional Family Chicken (TFC) to Improved Family Chicken (IFC)
The proposed transformation of the TFC will have two components. One is to improve the
indegenous chicken productivity through improved breed selection, health, feed and
mangement interventions and the second one is along with health, feed and mangmnet
interventions to introduce and distribute higher yielding pure tropical breeds that do not
reporoducce themselves and distribute them to producers.

Improvement of the traditional family chicken can be practiced all over the country and in
all livestock production zones (LRLA, MRMA and HRHA zones).

75
 A. Scaling up the commercial specialized chicken production (SP layers and broilers)

The scaling up of the specialized chicken systems involve increasing the scale of operations
or average number of commercial layers and broilers kept per farm, and increasing the
number of specialized farms. Build capacity and put in place strict biosafety systems
Integrate commercial production and marketing from downstream value chain to the upper
end of the value chain including processing.

Overall Targets under the Recommended Level of Investment Scenario (RLI)

The overall target for the Chicken development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) is based on the
RLI option which is to more than double the annual chicken meat production from the
current 15.2 thousand to 35 thousand tonnes and the egg production from the current 244
thousand to 513 thousand eggs by 2021/22 through implementing the Improved Traditional
Family Chicken (ITFC), Crossbreed Family Chicken (CFC) and expanded
Specialized/Commercial Chicken (SP) systems – with Layers and Broilers. The recommended
level of investment or RLI is needed to meet these targets.

The improved Traditional Family Chicken (ITFC) and Crossbreed Family

Chicken (CFC) sub-systems (20167/17-2021/22)

Targets for ITFC and CFC under RLI

Table 43: Number of hens and chicken eggs and meat production in ITFC and CFC 2016/17-
2021/22 (RLI)
Chicken Unit 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 %
systems (baseline) change
ITFC hens million 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.0 34%
CFC hens million 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.011 0.027 0.068 NA*
Total hens million 5.201 5.502 59.004 6.211 6.627 7.068 35%
ITFC eggs Thousand 83,310 97,712 114,605 134,418 157,657 184,913 122%
CFC eggs Thousand 60 150 374 935 2,337 5,841 9666%
Total egg Thousand 83,370 97,862 114,979 135,353 159,994 190,754 129%
ITFC meat MT 5,080 5,690 6,372 7,137 7,993 8,951 76%
CFC meat MT 1 2 4 11 27 67 9666%
Total meat MT 5,081 5,692 6,377 7,147 8,019 9,018 77%

 The number of hens in the ITFC grows from 5.2 million in the base year to 7 million in
2021/22, a 34% increase.
 Number of hens in the CFC grows from almost nil to 68,000.
 Chicken meat production from ITFC increases from 5.1 thousand tonnes in 2016/17 to
8.95 thousand tonnes in 2021/22, a 76% increase
 Chicken meat production from the CFC increases from 1 ton in 2016/17 to 67 tonnes by
2022.
*CFC is a newly introduced chicken system that does not exist, or hardly exists, in the base year.

76
Key assumptions for the ITFC and CFC systems under RLI

 The flock size in ITFC will increase from 1 to 5 improved hens

 Reproductive wastage due to time spent in brooding will be reduced by 60%.
 Eggs laid per hen/year will increase from 40 to 90 on average
 Average weight of sold adult chicken increases from 1.4 kg to 1.7 kg.
 Chicken mortality before marketing will drop down from 50% to 10%.
 The chicken will be supplemented with locally available feeds by up to 50% of their
requirements
 With dual-purpose crossbred chickens the minimum flock size is 25 hens; with a
production of 150 eggs/hen/year on average and weight at marketing will be 2.5 kg
 Adequate space for housing, better health services and feed supplementation is
provided is delivered for dual purpose chicken

*The detailed and quantified interventions are given in the Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA)
report in the Interventions Section.

Table 44: Key challenges and interventions related to improving the family systems (ITFC
and CFC) under the RLI
Challenges Interventions to address the challenges
Feeds
 Shortage of maize, soy beans and other raw  Make more land available for production of
materials to enable the existing chicken feed additional cereals for production of processed
processing plants operate at their full feed (maize and soybean);
capacity  Facilitate import of chicken feed
 Competition between human and mono- ingredients, maize and soybean.
gastric animals for locally produced maize
 Low nutritive value and low quality of  Build capacity for Animal feed inspectors in
commercial chicken feeds various levels.
 Low institutional capacity to control quality  Strengthen feed quality testing labs to
of chicken feed produced and processed regulate feed quality (periodical processors
compliance to set Standards)
 Create awareness through sensitization on
quality of chicken feeds
 Build capacity for Animal feed processors
Good processing practices
 Regulating the exportation of oil crops and
importation of cooking oils; and
 Low incentive for the private sector to invest  Tax holiday and other incentives to
in feed processing plants encourage the participation of private
sector in the feed processing industries.
 Provide incentives and suitable investment to
promote agro-processing industries and feed
processing factories
 Facilitate establishment of additional large-
scale feed processing plants to cater the

77
Challenges Interventions to address the challenges
growing chicken production
 Low capacity of framers to formulate their  Extension and capacity building of farmers
own chicken feeds using local available on technology and methods of formulating
materials feed rations for chicken using locally
available materials
Genetics
 Low genetic potential of the local chicken  Improve the genetics composition of
breeds indigenous chicken breeds through
selection within the local breeds for ITFC
 Identify and distribute higher yielding dual
purpose tropical adaptable chicken breeds
to replace the less productive indigenous
breeds in CFC
 Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding
hens using artificial incubation artificial
brooding facilities in both
 Lack of availability of commercial day old  Encourage private sector to invest in
chicks: the national supply of day old chicks is hatcheries and distribution of cross-bred
very low. Almost all the chicks are imported, DOCs and/or pullets to satisfy the increase
mostly from Uganda, Belgium and in DOC demand
Netherlands.  Through PPP upgrade and strengthen the
existing government hatcheries
Animal health
 Prevalence of chicken diseases particularly  Formulate bio safety guidelines for disease
ND, FP, IBD/Gumboro control
 Poor housing and sanitation  Enforcing stricter disease controls on the
importation of commercial replacement
stock;
 Introduce chicken health management
system
 Strengthen the capacity for disease
surveillance, quarantines, and supervise
mass chicken vaccination programs
 Rationalize public and private veterinary
services, with privatization where feasible
 Awareness creation among small producers
on sanitation and housing
Marketing and processing
 Weak chicken producers organizations  Promote establishment of Rwanda chicken
 Lack of cutting and processing facilities to traders associations;
produce market suitable chicken meat  Facilitate construction of modern chicken
products cutting and processing plants
 Lack of slaughtering facilities for chicken  Facilitate construction of modern chicken
 Lack of egg processing plants slaughter houses
 Facilitate construction of egg processing plants

78
Challenges Interventions to address the challenges
catering to domestic and export markets
 Promote consumption of exotic chicken meat
and egg in domestic households in Rwanda
 Build capacity and put in place strict biosafety
systems
 Strengthen meat inspections (at abattoirs,
standardized mechanized slaughters, and
processing facilities
 Weak Biosafety and HACCP facilities  Institutionalize mandatory biosafety and
HACCP
 Consumers poor preference for exotic  Intensifying the promotion and extension
chicken meat and eggs work to change the attitudes of consumers
towards consuming eggs and meat from
hybrid and exotic breeds
Extension
 Strengthen extension services to improve
the management skills of households raising
indigenous and dual purpose chicken
 Build the capacity of extension agents
 Promote private extension service providers
 Increase the delivery of extension services
and awareness through associations and co-
operatives
Policy
 Policy related to importation of raw materials  Strengthen quality audit and compliance of
for processed feeds and regulatory the commercial feeds,
enforcement of hatcheries and breeding  Establish guidelines and standard operating
farms. procedures for operation of hatcheries and
breeder farms.
 Establish guidelines for operation of
hatcheries breeder farms,
 Promote registration of hatcheries and
breeder farms
 Avail credit access to farmers and other
actors in the value chain,
 Policy related to land acquisition for chicken  Favorable policy for land acquisition for
feed production. chicken feed production.

Interventions to achieve targets (RLI)

The proposed improvement of the traditional family chicken system via RLI transformation
to the ITFC and CFC systems has two components: the first is to improve the productivity of
indigenous chicken through improved breed selection, along with complementary health,
feed and management interventions; and the second is that along with the health, feed and
improved management interventions to introduce and distribute higher yielding dual

79
purpose tropical crossbreds. As well, reproductive wastage will be reduced by introducing
artificial brooding facilities and incubators. Improvement of the traditional family chicken
system can be practiced all over the country, in all livestock production zones (LRLA, MRMA
and HRHA zones).

ITFC and CFC impacts (RLI)

Production impacts
As the result of the intervention, the number of indigenous hens in the traditional family
system grows from 5.2 million in the base year to 7 million in 2021/22, a 34% increase and
the number of the newly introduced dual purpose improved family crossbreed chicken
grows to 68 thousand. This is a slow process that involves testing for adaptability.

Total chicken meat from the family system increases from 5.1 thousand tonnes in year
2016/17 to 9 thousand tonnes in 2021/22 a 77% increase. Similarly, over the same period
egg production increases by 129%, i.e., from 83.4 million to 190.8 million.

GDP impacts
As shown in table 45 below, as a result of the additional interventions, the GDP contribution
from the improved family chicken systems increases from RWF 20,317 million in 2016/17 to
37,128 million in 2021/22, a 72% increase which is substantial growth over 5 years.

Table 45: Changes in GDP contribution of improved family chicken (RLI)

Chicken GDP 2016/17 Chicken GDP 2021/22 Change in
Products
(RWF millions) (RWF millions) %
ITFC meat 13,266 20,475.5 54%
CFC meat 3 336.8 NA
Total Family chicken meat 13,269 20,812.3 57%
ITFC Chicken eggs 7,038 15,367 118%
CFC Chicken Eggs 10 948 NA
Total Family chicken eggs 7,048 16,316 131%
Total Family chicken meat and eggs 20,317 37,128 72%

80
Specialized commercial chicken production (2016/17-2021/22)

SP Targets

Table 46: Number of chicken and chicken meat production in SP chicken subsystems (RLI)
Chicken Unit 2016/17 2017/18 2018/1 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 %
subsystem 9 Change
SP layers million 0.77 0.89 1.02 1.18 1.35 1.55 101%
SP broilers Million 0.97 1.17 1.40 1.68 2.02 2.42 149%
Total SP million
chicken 1.75 2.06 2.43 2.86 3.37 3.98 128%
SP layer Tonnes 648 745 857 986 1,134 1,304 101%
SP broiler Tonnes 9,986 11,983 14,380 17,256 20,707 24,848 149%
Total Tonnes 10,634 12,729 15,237 18,241 21,840 26,152 146%

 The number of chickens in the SP chicken layers subsystem grows from 0.77 million in
2016/17 to 1.5 million in 2021/22, a 101% increase. The SP chicken broilers subsystem
grows from 0.97 million to 2.42 Million in the year 2021/22, a 149% increase.
 Chicken meat production from SP chicken increases from 10,634 tonnes in 2016/17 to
26,152 tonnes in the year 2021/22, a 146% increase.

Table 47: Egg production from specialized layers (RLI)

Chicken 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
subsystem
SP chicken 101
egg million) 160.3 184.3 212.0 243.7 280.3 322.3 %

 Egg production from specialized layers increases from 160.3 million in 2016/17 to 322.3
million in the year 2021/22, an increase of 101%.
 The scale of operations or average number of commercial layers and broilers kept per
farm and the number of farms will increase
 Annual growth rate of layers and broilers over the coming 15 years will be 15% and 25%,
respectively (Table 48).

Table 48: Commercial layer and broiler projected population at national level (RLI)
Breed type Base year End of first five End of second End of third five
(2016) year (2021) five year (2026) year (2031)
Layers population 772,674 1,554,123 3,555,457 7,151,293
Broiler population/
cycle 974,543 2,424,976 6,034,116 18,414,662

81
Key challenges and strategies related to the specialized layers and broilers system
(SP system)

The specialized and family chicken systems face the same challenges as the family systems
to improve and thus need the same or similar interventions to transform the industry. Refer
to Table 44 above for the details on the challenges and strategies.

Interventions to achieve targets

The interventions for SP chicken improvement involve increasing the number of chickens
and thus the scale of operations and the volume of production from the specialized chicken
farms i.e., SP chicken layers and SP chicken broilers. The major intervention proposed for
the SP chicken layers and SP chicken broilers is increasing the number of birds and the
number of specialized farm units using exotic pure bred chickens and modern industrial
scale poultry management.

SP chicken impacts (RLI)

Production impacts
 Chicken meat production from SP broilers increases from 10,634 tonnes in 2016/17 to
26,152 tonnes in the year 2021/22, a 146% increase.
 Egg production from specialized layers increases from 160.3 million in 2016/17 to 322.3
million in the year 2021/22, an increase of 101%.

GDP impacts
As Table 49 shows the GDP contribution of the specialized broiler system increases from the
current RWF 7.2 billion to 17.3 billion (a 146% increase) and eggs from the specialized layers
increases to 8.6 billion (an 101% increase) over the 5 year investment period.

Table 49: GDP contribution from commercial specialized chicken system 2016/17 and
2021/22 (RLI)
2016/17 (RWF 2021/22 (RWF
GDP contributions
millions) millions) Change in %
SP Chicken meat GDP 7,160.6 17,274 146%
SP Chicken eggs GDP 4,284 8,617 101%
Total contribution 11,444.60 25,891.00 126%

The total GDP contribution of the SP chicken system (broilers and layers) increases from
RWF 11.4 billion to 25.9 billion in five investment period, a 126% increase.

82
Total production under the RLI scenario

Chicken meat
The total chicken meat and egg production from the family and commercial specialized
systems is presented in Table 50 below. It shows an increase from 15,715 tonnes in 2016/17
to 35,170 tonnes in 2021/22 for meat which constitutes a 124% increase over 5 years.
The total egg production from the family and commercial specialized systems increases
from 244 million to 513 million which is a 110% growth over 5 year.

Table 50: Total chicken meat and eggs production with additional investment RLI

Unit 2016/17 2021/22 with

Products
case
Total chicken meat from the Family system Tonnes 5081 9018
Total chicken meat from Commercial specialized Tonnes 10,634 26,152
system
Total chicken meat production Tonnes 15,715 35,170
Total eggs Family system millions 83.4 190.8
Total eggs from SP millions 160.3 322.3
millions 513.1
Total eggs production
243.7

Total GDP
Table 51: Total chicken meat and eggs production GDP contribution with additional
investment RLI
GDP 2016/17 GDP 2021/22 (RWF Change in
Products
(RWF millions) millions) %
Family chicken meat and eggs
contribution 20,317 37,128.3 83%
Specialized chicken meat and eggs
contribution 11,444.6 25,890.24 126%
Total chicken GDP contribution 31,762 63,019 98%

Overall, with the RLI level of interventions the GDP contribution of the total chicken meat
and eggs production is almost doubled, from the current RWF 31.8 billion to 63.0 billion
over the 5 year investment period.

Per capita chicken meat and eggs production RLI

Table 52 below presents the per capita chicken meat and egg production in Rwanda
comparing the baseline with 2021/22 under the additional investment scenario. Although
the change in both meat and egg production is substantial, there remains a significant
shortage of eggs to meet the FAO recommended requirement, which is 4.5 kg per day. This
estimate is based on the projected human population in Rwanda for 2021/22, which is
13,252,272 (NISR 2014).

83
Table 52: Per capita availability of eggs and chicken meat RLI
2016/17 2021/22 %
“with case” change
Per capita availability of eggs in kg 1 1.9 90%
Per capita availability of chicken meat in kg 1.19 2.65 123%

The chicken investment is mainly to raise a large number of broilers and improved family
chicken to produce enough chicken meat to close the gap between per capita meat
production and the consumption level required to lead a healthy life.
Table 53 below shows the implications of the impact of the recommended level of
investment (RLI) on production and GDP over 5 years as compared to the BAU case.

Table 53: Rwanda chicken meat production under BAU and RLI scenario (2021/22)
2021/22 With % difference
Livestock product 2016/17 2021/22 BAU recommended case recommended/BAU
Chicken meat in MT 15,715 20,589 35,170 71%
Eggs in million 243.6 369.7 513.1 39%
Chicken meat and
eggs GDP in RWF 31,762 43,606 63,019 45%

As shown in table 53 above the increase in the production of chicken meat and eggs and
their GDP contribution is substantial enough to justify the investment.
Table 54 below shows the required activities and implementation sequencing for the
proposed interventions to transform the chicken industry, both family and specialized
systems under the RLI scenario.

Table 54: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI
Activity sequencing
Investment interventions 2017/1 2018/1 2019/2 2020/2
2021/22
8 9 0 1
Feeds interventions
Strengthen the existing feed processing
plants through technology transfer,
marketing extension to enable them
operate at full capacity
Establish 3 new chicken and pig feed
processing plants each with 40,000 MT
capacity
Improve the capacities of chicken feed
quality and biosafety (HACCP) control
laboratories.
Build capacity for Animal feed inspectors
Land allocation for production of maize
and soya beans and other raw materials
for supplying the feed processing plants

84
 Activity sequencing
Investment interventions 2017/1 2018/1 2019/2 2020/2
2021/22
8 9 0 1
Setting a procedure to facilitate
importation additional raw materials in
such as maize to supply the feed
processing industries
Build capacity of farmers on
technologies and methods of
formulating feed rations using locally
available materials
Promote the establishment of edible oil
agro processing industries
Demand/price and VC analysis for
processed animal feed to inform feed
pricing policy making and VC efficiencies
Animal Health interventions
Establish ND, FP, Gumboro vaccines
production plant
Establish a national bio safety guidelines
for disease monitoring and controlling
Strengthen the capacity for disease
surveillance, quarantines and mass
chicken vaccinations
Rationalize public and private veterinary
services
Enforcing stricter disease controls on the
importation of commercial replacement
stock;
Awareness creation among small
producers on sanitation and housing
Genetics and breeding
interventions
Identify and test suitable tropical dual
purpose chicken crossbreeds to
introduce in the family system
Improve the genetic potentials of
indigenous chicken breeds through
selection
Privatize, strengthen and upgrade the
existing public chicken multiplication
centers
Establish 5 new private hatcheries and
DOC multiplication centers with total
capacities of producing 20 million

85
 Activity sequencing
Investment interventions 2017/1 2018/1 2019/2 2020/2
2021/22
8 9 0 1
DOCs/year

Establish 50 private mothering units and

distribution centers for selected 4 weeks
vaccinated chicken
Put in place guidelines to monitor
importation of DOC and fertile eggs
Establish standard operating procedures
of hatcheries and chicken breeder farms.
Reduce reproductive wastage of
brooding hens using artificial chicken
brooding facilities and incubators
Marketing and extensions
interventions
Establishment of private chicken
slaughtering houses of a total annual
capacity of slaughtering 10 million broilers
along with modern chicken cutting and
processing facilities and cold storage
Establish 30 private municipal chicken
slaughtering houses
Establish one egg processing plant
Promote establishment of Rwanda
chicken traders associations;
Build capacity and put in place strict
biosafety systems and institutionalize
mandatory biosafety and HACCP
Promote consumption of exotic and
hybrid chicken meat and egg in domestic
households in Rwanda

86
Table 55: Five-year Chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs for RLI, the recommended investment scenario (2017/18
– 2021/22)
Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget Budget
Investment interventions (million Sources
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
RWF)
Feeds interventions
Strengthen the existing feed processing plants through 10% public
technology transfer, marketing extension to enable them 1,000 1,000 2,000 90%
operate at full capacity private
Establish 3 new chicken feed processing plants each with
40,000 MT capacity 1,500 2,500 2,000 5,000 100%
private
Improve and upgrade chicken feed quality control 20% public
laboratories. 500 80%
private
Biosafety control (HACCP) and capacity building for 2,000 50% public
Animal feed inspectors, and establishment of 1,000 1,000 50%
standard for chicken feed quality private
Setting a procedure to facilitate importation of 100%
additional raw materials such as maize to supply the 20 20 public
feed processing industries
Build capacity of farmers on technologies and 60% public
methods of formulating feed rations using locally 100 100 200
available materials 40%
private
Promote the establishment of edible oil agro 50 50% public
processing industries 50 50%
private

87
 Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget Budget
Investment interventions (million Sources
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
RWF)
Demand/price and VC analysis for processed animal 90 100%
feed to inform feed pricing policy making and VC 90 public
efficiencies

Total feed 4,260 4,600 1,000 0 0 9,860

Animal Health interventions
Establish ND, FP, Gumboro vaccines production plant 16,000 100%
4,000 12,000 public

Establish a national bio safety guidelines for disease 100 100%

100
monitoring and controlling public
Strengthen the capacity for disease surveillance, 100%
1,500 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
quarantines and mass chicken vaccinations 5,500 public
Enforcing procedure and system for stricter disease 100%
controls on the importation of commercial 500 500 1,000 public
replacement stock
Awareness creation among small producers on sanitation 100 100 100 500 60% public
and housing 100 100 40%
private
Total animal health 6,200 13,600 1,100 1,100 1,100 23,100
Genetics and breeding interventions
Identify and test suitable tropical dual purpose 1,000 60% public
chicken crossbreeds to introduce in the family system 500 500 40%
private

88
 Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget Budget
Investment interventions (million Sources
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
RWF)
Improve the genetic potentials of indigenous chicken 500 1,000 60% public
breeds through selection 250 250 40%
private
Privatize, strengthen and upgrade the existing public 500 1,500 15% public
chicken multiplication center 1,000 85%
private
Establish 5 new private hatcheries and DOC 6,000 10% public
multiplication centers with total capacities of
2,000 2,000 2,000
producing 20 million DOCs/year 90%
private
Establish 30 mini hatcheries 1,800 100%
900 450 450
private
Establish 50 private mothering units and distribution 1,100 100%
centers for selected 4 weeks vaccinated chicken 220 660 220 private
Put in place guidelines to monitor importation of DOC 20 100%
20
and fertile eggs public
Establish standard operating procedures of hatcheries 20 80% public
and chicken breeder farms. 20 20%
private
Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using 500 10% public
5,000 artificial chicken brooding facilities and 3,000 100 200 200
artificial incubators/year 90%
private
Total genetics 5010 4810 3120 0 0 12940

89
 Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget Budget
Investment interventions (million Sources
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
RWF)
Marketing and extensions interventions
Establishment of 2 private chicken slaughtering houses of 1,750 3500 100%
a total annual capacity of slaughtering 10 million broilers private
1,750
along with modern chicken cutting and processing
facilities and cold storage
Establish 30 private mini chicken slaughtering houses 830 830 2.500 100%
840
private
Establish one egg processing plant 10,000 100%
10,000
private
Promote establishment of Rwanda chicken traders 10 10 20 100%
associations; public
Promote consumption of exotic and hybrid chicken 50% public
meat and egg in domestic households in Rwanda 500 500 500 1,500 50%
private
Total marketing 3,090 1,340 3,090 0 10,000 17,520
Grand Total 18,560 24,350 8,310 1,100 11,100 63,420

90
The total investment required over the first five years to implement the proposed
interventions adds up to RWF 63 billion or USD 61 million. As shown in the Table 55 above
the sources of the investment include both the private and public sector. The private sector
invests 57% of the total required and the public sector 43%. Except the health service the
other investment categories are dominantly invested by the private sector (more than
84%).This shows that the transformation of the chicken industry in Rwanda needs to be
mainly driven by private sector investment.

Table 56:Total investment and recurrent costs for chicken meat and egg production VC
development under RLI
Investment category Responsible actor (000 000 Total investment
RWF) cost (million RWF)
Public Private
Animal feeding 1,555 8,305 9,860
Animal health 22,900 200 23,100
Animal breeding and genetics 2,111 10,829 12,940
Marketing and value addition 770 16,750 17,520
Total investment 27,336 36,084 63,420

Table 57: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas
for improving the chicken meat and egg production VC under RLI
Key investment area Proportion (%) by Proportions of
responsible actor investment area
Public Private
Animal feeding 16% 84% 100%
Animal health 99% 1% 100%
Animal breeding and genetics 16% 84% 100%
Marketing and value addition 4% 96% 100%
Total investment 43% 57% 100%

High production of chicken meat and eggs and value added to the national GDP is expected
with the full implementation of the proposed RLI level of investment interventions. This is
the recommended investment scenario in which sufficient resources are made available to
transform the sector to achieve the national development objectives.

Complimentary interventions and success requirements for Family (IFTC and CFC)
and SP chicken systems

 Feed is a critical factor to the success of the chicken industry. Hence, government should
encourage the private sector to establish large-scale feed processing plants
 Make land available for production of additional cereals for production of processed
feed (maize and soybean) and facilitate importation to fill gaps
 Facilitate construction of modern chicken slaughter and processing plants to process the
huge increase in chicken meat production

91
 Promote consumption of exotic chicken meat in domestic households and restaurants in
Rwanda
 Success in the specialized chicken (SP) and family crossbreed (CFC) systems depends on
the effectiveness of the DOC production and distribution system. A well- functioning
private and/or PPP DOC industry will be required for efficient production and
distribution of DOCs to the specialized chicken farms and to small holders/enterprises
which keep crossbreed family chicken.
 Standardize feed testing labs to regulate feed quality (with periodic testing of processors
compliance to set standards)
 Standardize procedures for meat inspections at abattoirs, standardized mechanized
slaughters, and processing facilities
 Encourage private sector to invest in hatcheries and distribution of cross-bred DOCs
and/or pullets,
 A network which involves DOC multiplication centres, pullet out growers (mother units
or hubs), individual smallholder farmers, women groups and cooperatives will be
required to create a successful family chicken improvement scheme.
 There is a need to put in place effective extension and animal health services (public or
private) to meet the service needs (health, feed and management) of the coming
millions of improved poultry family units.

Medium Investment level scenario (MIL)

The medium investment level scenario (MLI) assumes a budget constraint to investing fully
(as in the recommended case -- RLI). Only half of the RLI is made under the MLI, and the
impact on production and GDP is expected to be limited. However, the total production and
GDP impact would remain higher than the BAU scenario, which represents the current
spending profile. See Tables 58 and 59 below.

Key outcome assumptions for the medium investment scenario (MLI) for the family and
specialized chicken systems are based on the interventions from the recommended level
of investment (RLI), but scaled down to the 3 year RLI outcomes.

 The flock size in ITFC will increase from 1 to 3 improved hens

 Reproductive wastage due to time spent in brooding will be reduced by 30%.
 Eggs laid per hen/year will increase from 40 to 65 on average
 Average weight of sold adult chicken increases from 1.4 kg to 1.55 kg.
 Chicken mortality before marketing will drop from 50% to 30%.
 The chickens will be supplemented with locally available feeds for up to 50% of their RLI
requirements
 With dual-purpose CFC the flock size is the minimum or 25 hens; with a production of
150 eggs/hen/year on average and weight at marketing of 2.5 kg
 Adequate space for housing, better health services and feed supplementation is
provided and delivered for dual purpose chicken
 The major intervention proposed for the SP chicken layers and SP chicken broilers is
increasing the number of birds and the number of specialized farm units under the 3rd
year RLI scenario.

92
Key challenges and interventions under MLI

Key challenges and interventions to achieve the targets under the MLI will remain the same
as in the RLI for both family and specialized chicken systems

Impacts under MLI scenario

Tables 58 and 59 below illustrate the production and GDP impacts under the MLI case
comparing the MLI results with the base year or 2016/17 impacts and the BAU case scenario
for 2021/22.

Table 58: Rwanda chicken meat production under BAU and MLI (2021/22)
2016/17 2021/22 2021/22 With % difference % difference
Livestock product (base year) BAU MLI case MLI/base year MLI/BAU
Chicken meat in
15,715 20,589 27,826 77% 35%
MT
Eggs in million 243.6 369.7 433.5 78% 17%

Table 59: Rwanda chicken meat value added or GDP impacts under BAU and MLI (2021/22)
2016/17 2021/22 2021/22 With % difference % difference
Livestock GDP (base year) BAU MLI case MLI/base year MLI/BAU
Chicken meat in
20,430 27,278 31,284 53% 15%
million RWF
Eggs in million RWF 11,332 16,328 19,090 68% 17%
Total 31,762 43,606 50,374 59% 16%

As shown in Tables 58 and 59 above, the chicken meat and eggs production and the value
added by the sub sector under the MLI scenario is substantial when compared to the base
year 2016/17 situation. However, the chicken meat and eggs production shows an increase
of 35 and 17% respectively compared to the BAU 2021/22 scenario. The total value added
also increases by 16% compared to the BAU scenario. Although, there are some increases in
production and value added, it is significantly far below what could be achieved under the
recommended RLI scenario. The MLI impact on production and value added is not big
enough to recommend MLI outright as the preferred investment. Hence, it requires further
analysis to compute the Benefit-Cost ratio and the NPV to justify or reject the MLI scenario
for chicken.

93
Table 60: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart for MLI scenario

Activity sequencing
Investment interventions 2017/1 2018/1 2019/2 2020/2
2021/22
8 9 0 1
Feeds interventions
Strengthen the existing feed processing
plants through technology transfer,
marketing extension to enable them
operate at full capacity
Establish 1 new chicken and pig feed
processing plants each with 40,000 MT
capacity
Improve the capacities of chicken feed
quality and biosafety (HACCP) control
laboratories.
Build capacity for Animal feed inspectors
Land allocation for production of maize
and soya beans and other raw materials
for supplying the feed processing plants
Setting a procedure to facilitate
importation additional raw materials in
such as maize to supply the feed
processing industries
Build capacity of farmers on
technologies and methods of
formulating feed rations using locally
available materials
Promote the establishment of edible oil
agro processing industries
Demand/price and VC analysis for
processed animal feed to inform feed
pricing policy making and VC efficiencies
Animal Health interventions
Establish ND, FP, Gumboro vaccines
production plant
Establish a national bio safety guidelines
for disease monitoring and controlling
Strengthen the capacity for disease
surveillance, quarantines and mass
chicken vaccinations
Rationalize public and private veterinary
services
Enforcing stricter disease controls on the
importation of commercial replacement

94
 Activity sequencing
Investment interventions 2017/1 2018/1 2019/2 2020/2
2021/22
8 9 0 1
stock;
Awareness creation among small
producers on sanitation and housing
Genetics and breeding
interventions
Identify and test suitable tropical dual
purpose chicken crossbreeds to
introduce in the family system
Improve the genetic potentials of
indigenous chicken breeds through
selection
Privatize, strengthen and upgrade the
existing public chicken multiplication
centers
Establish 3 new private hatcheries and
DOC multiplication centers with total
capacities of producing 20 million
DOCs/year
Establish 15 mini hatcheries and 25
private mothering units and distribution
centers for selected 4 weeks vaccinated
chicken
Put in place guidelines to monitor
importation of DOC and fertile eggs
Establish standard operating procedures
of hatcheries and chicken breeder farms.
Reduce reproductive wastage of
brooding hens using artificial chicken
brooding facilities and incubators
Marketing and extensions
interventions
Establishment of 1 private chicken
slaughtering house of a total annual capacity
of slaughtering 10 million broilers along with
modern chicken cutting and processing
facilities and cold storage
Establish 15 private municipal chicken
slaughtering houses
Promote establishment of Rwanda
chicken traders associations;
Build capacity and put in place strict
biosafety systems and institutionalize

95
 Activity sequencing
Investment interventions 2017/1 2018/1 2019/2 2020/2
2021/22
8 9 0 1
mandatory biosafety and HACCP
Promote consumption of exotic and
hybrid chicken meat and egg in domestic
households in Rwanda

96
Table 61: Five-year Chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs under medium investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22)
Investment cost (000,000 RWF) Total Budget
Investment interventions
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Budget Sources
Feeds interventions
Strengthen the existing feed processing plants
through technology transfer, marketing extension to 10% public
enable them operate at full capacity
1,000 1,000 2,000 90% private
Establish 1 new chicken feed processing plants each
with 40,000 MT capacity 2,000 2,000 100% private
Improve and upgrade chicken feed quality 250 20% public
250
control laboratories. 80% private
Biosafety control (HACCP) and capacity building 50% public
for Animal feed inspectors, and establishment of 1,000 1,000 50% private
standard for chicken feed quality
Setting a procedure to facilitate importation of 100% public
additional raw materials such as maize to supply 20 20
the feed processing industries
Build capacity of farmers on technologies and 60% public
methods of formulating feed rations using locally 100 100
available materials 40% private

Promote the establishment of edible oil agro 50 50% public

50
processing industries 50% private
Demand/price and VC analysis for processed 100% public
animal feed to inform feed pricing policy making 90 90
and VC efficiencies
Total feed
4,510 1,000 5,510
Animal Health interventions

97
 Investment cost (000,000 RWF) Total Budget
Investment interventions
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Budget Sources
Establish ND, FP, Gumboro vaccines production 4000 100% public
4,000
plant
Establish a national bio safety guidelines for 100 100% public
100
disease monitoring and controlling
Strengthen the capacity for disease surveillance, 100% public
1,500 1,000
quarantines and mass chicken vaccinations 2,500
Enforcing procedure and system for stricter 100% public
disease controls on the importation of 500 500
commercial replacement stock
Awareness creation among small producers on 60% public
sanitation and housing 100 100 100 300 40% private
Total animal health 6,200 2,100 100 8,400
Genetics and breeding interventions
Identify and test suitable tropical dual purpose 60% public
chicken crossbreeds to introduce in the family 500 500 40% private
system
Improve the genetic potentials of indigenous 500 60% public
500
chicken breeds through selection 40% private
Privatize, strengthen and upgrade the existing 1,000 15% public
1,000
public chicken multiplication center 85% private
Establish 3 new private hatcheries and DOC 10% public
multiplication centers with total capacities of 2,000 2000 90% private
producing 20 million DOCs/year 4000
Establish 15 mini hatcheries 900 900 100% private
Establish 25 private mothering units and 100% private
distribution centers for selected 4 weeks 220 330 550

98
 Investment cost (000,000 RWF) Total Budget
Investment interventions
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Budget Sources
vaccinated chicken

Put in place guidelines to monitor importation of 20 100% public

20
DOC and fertile eggs
Establish standard operating procedures of 20 80% public
20
hatcheries and chicken breeder farms. 20% private
Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens 10% public
using 25000 artificial chicken brooding facilities 100 150
and 1500 artificial incubators/year 250 90% private
Total genetics 5,260 2480 0 0 0 7,740
Marketing and extensions interventions
Establishment of 1 private chicken slaughtering 1,750 1750 100% private
houses of a total annual capacity of slaughtering 10
million broilers along with modern chicken cutting
and processing facilities and cold storage
Establish 15 private mini chicken slaughtering houses 830 295 1125 100% private
Establish one egg processing plant 100% private
Promote establishment of Rwanda chicken 10 10 20 100% public
traders associations;
Promote consumption of exotic and hybrid 50% public
chicken meat and egg in domestic households in 500 250 750
Rwanda 50% private
Total marketing 3,090 555 3,645
Total investment 19,060 3,135 100 25,295

99
As shown above in Table 61 above, in the MLI scenario the total investment will come down
to RWF 25 billion or USD 30 million compared to RWF 51 billion or USD 61 million in the RLI
scenario. Similar to the RLI, the sources of investment in the MLI case remain to be heavily
private with a significant public contributions.

Complimentary interventions and success requirements for the MLI scenario are the same
as for the RLI scenario.

Conclusions
The chicken meat and egg production under the RLI scenario show substantial increments,
124% and 110% respectively compared to the base year. The RLI scenario would contribute
significantly to fulfilling the national all meat requirement and would increase per capita egg
consumption for Rwanda to help meet one of the Rwandan national development
objectives of improving food and nutrition security. Under the RLI scenario, although the per
capita egg consumption increases, a significant shortage continues to exist to meeting the
FAO recommended requirement, which is 4.5 kg per person.

It must also be noted that the technical interventions alone will not bring the projected
output unless the policy and institutional challenges are addressed.
 Needed policies and strategies – to be enacted and implemented
 Livestock products pricing policy
 Animal breeding strategy
 Livestock identification & reporting system policy
 Livestock animal and product traceability policy

 Regulations and standards

 Regulation of animal breeding
 Regulation of animal nutrition; standards on animal commercial feeds, crops
residues, formulation of the feeds, honey, etc
 Regulation of livestock products pricing and standards on animal products grading
(milk, meat, honey, eggs, wool, hides and skins)
 Standards on livestock infrastructure development (slaughterhouses, laboratories,
processing factories, etc.)
 Standards on vet services and pharmaceuticals and supplies
 Institutional framework
 Strengthening the functional linkages and collaboration of institutions from national
level to grassroots

Under the MLI scenario, chicken meat and eggs is less by 21 and 16% respectively compared
to the RLI. This would hinder the development effort of Rwanda to transform the sub-
sector, postpone the achievement of closing the production and consumption gap for all
meat and postpone increasing the per capita egg consumption of Rwandans.

100
Table 62: MLI and RLI production and GDP comparison
Scenario Outcomes Investment Scenarios % difference MLI to
RLI
BAU RLI MLI
Production 5th year
20,589 35,170 27,826 -21%
Meat in MT
Eggs in million
369.7 513.1 433.5 -16%
number
GDP 5th year 43,606 63,019 50,374 -20%

The difference in the GDP contribution of the sub-sector between the BAU and MLI is only
16%. Moreover, compared to the RLI, the MLI shows a 20% drop in GDP contribution. It is
recommended to do a financial feasibility of the MLI scenario before committing resources
to this investment option.

101
Pork value chain development roadmap
(2017/18-2021/22)

102
Pork value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22)
Vision
The Rwanda pig industry becomes an efficiently functioning sub-sector with highly market-
oriented farming and processing and dynamic marketing, to supply consumers with high
quality and safe pig meat/pork, while operating in more sustainable ways, and contributing
towards closing the national gap in meat production and consumption, improving
household food and nutritional security, achieving income growth and poverty alleviation
and contributing to growth in national income.

Investment scenarios analyzed

Three scenarios corresponding to three levels of investment in the pig sub-sector are
examined for their impacts on production of pork meat and contributions to GDP to provide
three investment choices for decision makers in Rwanda: the government, private investors
and development partners (donors). These three scenarios are referred as BAU (Business As
Usual), MLI (Medium Level of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment).
The BAU scenario analyzes the base case or presents the implications of the current level of
investment for pig meat production and GDP contributions during the 5-year LMP roadmap
period. RLI is the level of investment which could achieve the 5-year targets for the agreed
upon national development objectives. In the MLI scenario the assumed level of investment
is that of the RLI through the 3rd year of the 5-year LMP period (see Table 63 below) and
could achieve the 3rd year RLI impact on the targets for pork production and contribution to
GDP. The MLI scenario is tested to provide investors with the choice of a medium level of
investment given they face an assumed budget constraint.

Overall Target under the recommended level of investment (RLI) scenario

The overall target under RLI is to raise pig meat production from the current 19,945 tonnes
in 2016/17 to 67,076 tonnes by 2021/22, an increase of 239% -- to be achieved through
improving the family mixed pig system (IFP) and expanded commercial specialized piglet
fattening (CSP).

Modernizing the semi-intensive mixed family pig production system (IFP)

Targets

Table 63: Number of sows and tonnes of pork in improved family mixed (IFP) pig
subsystems (RLI scenario)
Pig system Unit 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % Change
Semi intensive
family mixed Number 252,960 278,256 306,081 336,689 370,358 407,394 61%
system (IFP)
Semi intensive
family mixed
Tonnes 19,869 21,260 22,749 24,342 26,047 27,871 40%
system (IFP)

103
Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2017), Rwanda
 Number of sows in family mixed (IFP) systems increases from 252,960 to 407,394, a 61%
increase.
 Pig meat production from the family mixed (IFP) systems increases from 19,869 tonnes
to 27,871 tonnes a 40% increase.

Key assumptions for improving the family pig sub-system under the RLI scenario

 The number of sows per farm will increase from the current 1 to 6
 Age at first service (in days) to decrease from 330 days to 250 days
 Mortality rate of young animals before weaning to decrease from 13% to 10%
 Mortality rate from weaning to marketing to decrease from 4% to 3%
 Adult mortality rates to decrease from 3% to 2%
 Cost of veterinary services to double
 Percent of feed purchased to increase from the current 30% to 50%

Table 64: Key Challenges and Interventions related to the recommended level of
investment (RLI) to improve family pig system (IFP)
Challenges Strategies to address the challenges
Genetics
 Lack of specialized commercial pig  Establishing public and private sector
breeding farms to adequately specialized commercial pig breeding and
supply well-bred high yielding pig multiplication farms with efficient
stocks to pig farms distribution services
 Low productivity of pigs in the  Importing new lines of improved high
family mixed system partly due to yielding pig breeds to avoid inbreeding and
low genetic potential and increase productivity
inbreeding.  Extension and proper management and
husbandry practices to lower the probability
of inbreeding
Animal Health
 ASF is a permanent risk that could  Strengthening surveillance, early
cause heavy mortality losses. FMD detection/diagnosis
is also a serious health problem.  Pig Biosecurity policy guidelines for farmers
(small and commercial), pig feed and meat
processors
 Support immunization measures FMD
 Improving pig farm management practices
to benefit producers.
 Put in place an effective biosafety measures
(HACCP)
 Extensive pig farmers education on pig
husbandry and health management
Feeds challenges

104
Challenges Strategies to address the challenges
 Lack of supply of commercial  Establishment of private feed mills and feed
processed feeds and other feeds processing plants
 Expand private cereals and legumes
production to supply feed processing plants.
 Conduct research on alternative pig feeds to
reduce completion of cereals for human
consumption.
 Build capacities of farmers to prepare feed
ration using locally available materials
Marketing and Processing challenges
 Weak pig marketing arrangements  Developing the pig value chain to improve
lack of pig slaughter facilities/abattoirs, pig marketing, trading capacity and
absence of cooling systems smallholder pig production by constructing
pig markets, slaughter facilities/abattoirs
and fresh pork marketing outlets
 Strengthening Swine Producer Associations
to innovate and actively participate in the
value chain
Policy challenges
 Lack of official pig marketing,  Ensure Policy guidelines/regulations to
transporting policies organize pig marketing/trading system
developed
 Lack of policy for pig holding and  Create enabling policy environments for
slaughtering facilities establishment of rural small-scale and urban
large-scale slaughter facilities
 Develop policy guidelines, standard
operating procedures (SOP) and awareness
campaigns on slaughter facilities’ hygiene
and food safety

Interventions to achieve targets in IFP systems

The family mixed system will be transformed with introduction of improved breeds, better
animal health services and feeding. The semi intensive piglet fattening system is in its initial
stage of development and will be scaled up by overcoming the breed, health, marketing and
most importantly the feed problems. The genetic improvement involves import of adapted
tropical and productive pig sows and boars for breeding and crossbredding and
establishment of pig breeding and multiplication farms. The animal health intervention
involves strengthening disease control, targeting the control and prevention of priority pig
diseases (ASF, FMD)). Strengthening the biosecurity at farm level and at processing facilities
is essential. The feed intervention involves strengthening capacity of private small-scale pig
feed mills/processors with distribution networks to compound and distribute pig feeds to
rural small-holder farmers and also strengthening the capacity of family pig keeping
households to compound feed and supplement their herds with home formulated rations
made from locally available feed materials.

105
Impacts under RLI scenario

Production and GDP impacts (IFP)

As a result of the additional recommended level of investment, the total pig meat
production from the family system (IFP) increases from 19,869 to 27,871 tonnes, a 40%
increase, the GDP contribution of IFP increases from RWF 21,026 million in 2016/17 to RWF
41,877 million in 2021/22 which constitutes an increase of 99%.
Table 65: Pig meat production and GDP contribution family system (RLI)
Family mixed pig system (IFP) 2016/17 2021/22 Change in %
Total Pig meat from the IFP (tonnes) 19,869 27,871 40%
GDP contribution by the IFP in RWF 21,026 41,877 99%

Expanding Commercial Specialized Piglet fattening systems (CSP) RLI scenario

In this operation piglets are fattened for the pork market. This system is in its infant stage. It
is a newly introduced system which is expected to increase pig meat production greatly over
time.

Targets

Table 66: Population growth of piglets fattening and meat production RLI
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 %
Pig subsystem
change
NA
Piglet numbers 507 1,774 6,210 21,735 76,072 266,251
Piglet meat
(tonnes) 76 265 928 3,249 11,373 39,805 NA
Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2016), Rwanda
 Number of fattened piglets in the commercial specialized pig fattening subsystem grows
to 266,251.
 Pig meat production from the commercial specialized pig fattening system reaches to
39,805 tonnes over 5 year period.

Key assumption RLI

 The number of pigs in the commercial specialized pig fattening system (CSP) will
increase from about zero at the base year to about 266 thousand in year 5 and the
number of piglet fattening farm units and piglet per unit farms will increase.
 Health service and biosafety procedures will be established and fully functioning to
control hazards and disease outbreaks such as ASF.

Key Challenges and Strategies related to the commercial specialized pig (CSP)
system under RLI

 The key challenges and strategies related to commercial specialize pig (CSP) system is
the same as for the family system (IFP)

106
Interventions to achieve targets in commercial specialized family pig (CSP) systems
RLI

The feed, health, genetics, marketing and policy interventions proposed for the family
system also hold for the specialized piglet fattening system. Moreover, the total number of
piglets and fattening units in the piglet fattening (CSP) system will be increased. A stricter
biosafety system and HACCP will also be put in place along the value chain.

Impacts under RLI

Production impacts
The meat production from the piglet fattening reaches to 39,805 tons over 5 year period.
Piglet fattening is a newly tested pork production system that barely exist in Rwanda
currently. Piglet fattening farmers will buy piglets either as weaners or growers and fatten
them for the domestic as well as export pork market
GDP impacts
The GDP contribution of CSPS increases from the current RWF 46 million to 24,389 million in
5 year time.
Total Pig Meat Production under RLI
The total pig meat production from the family and specialized piglet fattening systems
increases by 239% over the 5 year period (2017 – 2022). This would be attributed to good
animal productivity and higher production and the increasing number of intensive
smallholder, medium-to-large scale farmers.
Table 67: Total pig meat production under RLI
Pig meat 2016/17 Pig meat 2021/22 Change
Products
(in tonnes) (in tonnes) in %
Total Pig meat from the Family mixed 19,869 27,871 40%
system
Total pig meat from Commercial specialized 76 39,805 NA
piglet fattening system
Total Pig meat production 19,945.00 67,676.00 239%
Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2016), Rwanda.

Total GDP contribution

Overall the GDP contribution of the total pig meat production could increase from RWF 21
billion to 66 billion in the 5-year LMP period, an increase of 214% from the base year
contribution.
Table 68: Total GDP contribution Family (IFP) and Commercial/Specialized Pig (CSP) under
RLI
Pig meat GDP 2016/17 Pig meat GDP 2021/22 Change
Products
(RWF millions) (RWF millions) in %
Family Pig meat contribution 21,026 41,877 99%
Specialized pig meat contribution 46 24,389 NA
Total meat contribution 21,072 66,266 214%
Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2016) Rwanda

107
Per capita pig meat production under RLI
As the result of the additional RLI investment in the sector, the per capita pig meat
production in Rwanda would increase from the current 1.5 kg to 5 kg. This represents a
significant accomplishment made possible by the transformation of the sector in the 5-year
LMP period.

Table 69: Activity Sequencing (Gantt chart) under RLI

Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1.0 Animal Feeding
1.1 Establish private pig feed processing plant
1.2 Establishment of 10 private small-scale feed mills
1.3 Expand private massive cereals and legumes production
to supply feed processing plants
1.4 Research on alternative pig feeds in terms of nutritive
values, and feed conversion impacts on weight gain and
meat quality
1.5 Capacity building of family mixed pig farmers to
formulate their own feed ration using locally available
materials
2.0 Animal Health
2.1 Strengthen disease surveillance capacity
2.2 Strength vet labs in knowledge, technologies, methods
and facilities to test for early diagnosis of key pig
diseases especially ASF
2.3 Develop and strengthen capacity to control AFSV and
transform the pig industry in the country
3.0 Animal Breeding and Genetics
3.1 Research on tropical adaptable productive pig sow and
boar breeds
3.2 Facilitate to establish private and public pig breeder and
multiplication farms
3.3 Establish Swine breeders Associations and build their
capacity
4.0 Marketing and Value Additions
4.1 Establish new specialized piglet fattening farms
4.2 Build capacity of Meat Inspectors
4.3 Construct 30 pig marketing centers with slaughter
facilities
4.4 Construct 2 mechanized pig slaughters, processing plant,
with cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to
domestic and exports markets
4.5 Facilitate pig identification, registration and traceability
5.0 Policy
5.1 Develop official pig marketing, transporting policies and
pig holding and slaughtering policy

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Table 70: Five year pig/pork production improvement recommended level of investment costs scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) RLI
Investment cost (RWF, 000,000) TOTAL (RWF Budget
Type of investment
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 ,000,000) Source
1.0 Genetics

1.1 Establish 5 private pig breeding and multiplication farms Public 15%
100 200 100 100 500
PPP 85%
1.2 Establish 5 public pig breeding and multiplication farms 100 100 100 100 100 500 Public 100%
Total genetics 200 300 200 200 100 1000
2.0 Animal feed

2.1 Establish private chicken and pig feed processing plant See chicken
feed budget
2.2 Establishment of 10 private small-scale feed mills 375 375 750 Private 100%
2.3 Expand private massive cereals and legumes production to See chicken
supply feed processing plants feed budget
2.4 Research on alternative pig feeds in terms of nutritive values, 20%private &
200 200 400
and feed conversion impacts on weight gain and meat quality 80% public
Total animal feed 575 200 375 1150
3.0 Animal health See chicken
AH budget
Marketing

3.1 Pig identification, registration and traceability Public 80%

500 500 1000
Private 20%
Public 5%
3.2 Establish 2 large-scale specialized investors' pig farms 1,200 1,000 2200
Private 95%
Establish 30 new commercial specialized pig farms for Public 5%
3.3 500 1000 1000 500 3,000
commercial pig production Private 95%
Public 10%
3.4 Construct 30 pig marketing centers with slaughter facilities 1000 1000 1000 3,000
Private 90%

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 Investment cost (RWF, 000,000) TOTAL (RWF Budget
Type of investment
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 ,000,000) Source
Construct mechanized pig slaughters, processing plant, with
Public 5%
3.5 cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to domestic 2,000
500 1,500 Private 95%
and exports markets
Pubic 18%
TOTAL 13,350
4475 4500 3575 700 100 Private 82%

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The potential high production increase and value added in the pig sub sector will depend on
realizing the recommended level of investment and building adequate human and institutional
capacity and political will to facilitate the implementation of the proposed interventions to
transform the sector. The total cost of this investment situation which is characterized as the
recommended level of investment (RLI) scenario adds up to RWF 13.4 billion in which 84%
comes from the private sector and the remaining 16% from public sources, including
Development Partners (DPs) (Tables 71 and 72).

Table 71:Total investment and recurrent costs for pig production VC development under RLI
Investment category Responsible actor (000 000 Total investment
RWF) cost (million RWF)
Public Private
Animal feeding 80 1070 1150
Animal breeding and genetics 575 425 1000
Marketing and value addition 1460 9740 11200
Total investment 2115 11235 13350

Table 72: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for
improving the pig production VC under RLI
Key investment area Proportion (%) by Proportions of
responsible actor investment area
Public Private
Animal feeding 7% 93% 100%
Animal breeding and genetics 58% 43% 100%
Marketing and value addition 13% 87% 100%
Total investment 16% 84% 100%

Complimentary interventions and success requirements for Family (IFP) and CSP pig
production under the RLI scenario

Pig meat is the highest produced and consumed animal source food (ASF) in the world. It could
play a major role in the future to help Rwanda meet the ASF requirements of its growing
population. The following complimentary requirements, however, need to be met to ensure the
effectiveness of the proposed LMP Pig roadmap interventions to help achieve sustainable
transformation of the sub sector.
 Supplementary feeding increased in the family mixed system and achieved through
adequate production and supply of quality commercial feeds
 Largescale private investment in massive cereal production under irrigation incentivized to
ensure adequate feed input supply to more privately owned feed mills

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 More efficient and effective biosafety, animal health services and productivity
enhancement breeding services targeting the family mixed system and specialized
commercial CSP production units
 Incentivizing the private sector to invest in large and medium scale specialized pig farming if
they create demonstration effects and increase access to inputs for IFP farmers to
modernize their pig operations
 Incentivizing the private sector to invest in pig slaughter houses and pork product
processing plants if they provide access to private extension training and inputs for
smallholders -- especially more and better feed, vet services, and genetics
 Strengthen pig producer and trader associations to assure better access to inputs and
output markets

Medium Level Investment (MLI) Scenario

If only half of the investment funds which are required for RLI are invested in the Pig sub sector,
then the investment impact on production and GDP is expected to be somewhat limited. This
scenario is called the medium level investment or MLI (see section 1.2). In the MLI scenario
analysis carried out to produce the LMP Pig roadmap, the MLI is simulated by assuming the
level of investment of the RLI through the 3rd year of the 5-year LMP period and the impact is
based on production and contribution to GDP that could be achieved with this level of
investment. Table 73 below shows the expected impact on production and GDP contribution of
the sector under the medium investment level (MLI) scenario, as in the case of the RLI scenario
the MLI results are evaluated by making comparisons with the BAU investment scenario, but
also with the RLI results.
Under medium investment level scenario it is assumed that there will be a budget constraint to
invest fully (as in the recommended case) and only half of the RLI would be made available to
improve the sub sector.

Key assumptions for improving the family pig sub-system (IFP) under the MLI scenario

 Under the medium investment level (MLI) scenario it is assumed that there will be a budget
constraint to invest fully (as in the recommended investment level scenario) and only half of
the RLI would be made available to improve the sub sector.
 The number of sows per farm will increase from the current 1 to 3
 Age at first service (days) to decrease from 330 days to 250 days
 Mortality rate of young animals before weaning to decrease from 13% to 10%
 Mortality rate for weaning to marketing to decrease from 4 to 3%
 Adult mortality rates to decrease from 3 to 2%
 Cost of veterinary service to double

Percent of feed purchased to increase from the current 30% in the semi-intensive family
piggery to 40%

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Key challenges and interventions under MLI

 Key challenges and interventions are the same as in the RLI scenario

Interventions to achieve targets under the MLI

 Interventions to achieve targets under the MLI are the same as in the RLI for both family
and specialized pig systems

Impacts under the MLI scenario

Table 73 below shows the impacts of the medium level investment (MLI) scenario on
production and contribution to GDP.
The MLI impact on production and GDP is much less than in the RLI scenario (see Tables 71, 72,
73 and 74). The total production and GDP impact would remain significantly higher than the
baseline year, i.e., 2016/17. Nevertheless, it shows 70% increment in pig meat production and
76% increment in GDP compared to the BAU scenario, which represents the current spending
level.

Table 73: Rwanda total pig meat production and GDP contribution under BAU and MLI scenario
(2021/22)
Rwanda pig meat production and GDP
2016/17 2021/22 2021/22 % difference % difference
Livestock product Baseline BAU With MLI MLI/Baseline MLI/BAU
Pig meat in MT 19,945 26,665 45,461 128% 70%
GDP from Pig meat in RWF
21,072 28,184 49,659 136% 76%
(million)

Table 74 below shows the time sequencing in the implementation of the different intervention
activities under the MLI scenario. The major intervention activities, feed, genetics, health,
marketing... remain the same, but there would be changes in magnitude and timing of
implementation.

Table 74: Activity sequencing Gantt chart under MLI

Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.0 Animal Feeding

1.1 Establish private pig & chicken feed processing plant
1.2 Establishment of 5 private small-scale feed mills
1.3 Expand private massive cereals and legumes production to
supply feed processing plants
1.4 Research on alternative pig feeds in terms of nutritive
values, and feed conversion impacts on weight gain and

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 Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

meat quality

1.5 Capacity building of family mixed pig farmers to formulate

their own feed ration using locally available materials
2.0 Animal Health
2.1 Strengthen disease surveillance capacity
2.2 Strength vet labs in knowledge, technologies, methods and
facilities to test for early diagnosis of key pig diseases
especially ASF
2.3 Develop and strengthen capacity to control AFSV and
transform the pig industry in the country
3.0 Animal Breeding and Genetics
3.1 Research on tropical adaptable productive pig sow and
boar breeds
3.2 Facilitate to establish private and public pig breeder and
multiplication farms
3.3 Establish Swine breeders Associations and build their
capacity
4.0 Marketing and Value Additions
4.1 Establish new specialized piglet fattening farms
4.2 Build capacity of Meat Inspectors
4.3 Construct 15 pig marketing centers with slaughter facilities
4.4 Construct 1 mechanized pig slaughters, processing plant,
with cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to
domestic and exports markets
4.5 Facilitate pig identification, registration and traceability
5.0 Policy
5.1 Develop official pig marketing and transporting policies
and pig holding and slaughtering policy

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Table 75: Five year pig/pork production improvement investment costs under medium investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) MLI
Investment cost (RWF, 000,000) TOTAL (RWF
Type of investment Budget Source
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 ,000,000)
1.0 Genetics
1.1 Establish 3 private pig breeding and multiplication
100 200 300 Public 15% Private 85%
farms
1.2 Establish 2 public pig breeding and multiplication
100 100 200 Public 100%
farms
200 300 500
2.0 Animal feed
Establish private chicken and pig feed processing
See chicken feed budget
2.1 plant
2.2 Establishment of 5 private small-scale feed mills 180 195 375 Private 100%
2.3 Expand private massive cereals and legumes
See chicken feed budget
production to supply feed processing plants
2.4 Research on alternative pig feeds 200 200 400 20% private & 80% public
Total animal feed 380 395 775
3.0 Animal health See chicken health budget
4.0 Marketing
4.1 Pig identification, registration and traceability 500 500 Public 80% Private 20%
Establish 1 large-scale specialized investors' pig
4.2 1,200 1,200 Public 5% Private 95%
farms
Establish 15 new commercial specialized pig farms
4.3 1000 1,500 Public 5% Private 95%
for commercial pig production 500
Construct 15 pig marketing centres with slaughter
4.4 1,500 Public 10% Private 90%
facilities 1000 500
Total marketing 3,200 1,500 6,700
21% pubic
TOTAL investment 3,780 2,195 5,975
79% private

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Table 75 above shows that the investment cost for the MLI scenario adds up to about RWF 6
billion which is slightly less than half of the investment recommended to achieve the
development targets for the RLI scenario. In the MLI scenario 21% of the investment comes
from the public and 79% from the private sector. In both the MLI and RLI scenarios the
development of the sub sector would be driven by private investment.
Table 76 below compares impacts of MLI and RLI on pig meat production and value added.
Table 76: MLI and RLI production and GDP comparison 2021/22
Scenario Outcomes Investment Scenarios % difference
BAU Recommended Medium MLI/RLI
Production 5th year
45,461 -33%
Pig Meat in MT 26,665 67,676
GDP 5th year 28,184 66,266 49,659 -25%

Under the MLI scenario pig meat production drops down to 33% of the RLI impact level and
GDP would be 25% of the RLI impact level. This constitutes a big difference between the two
scenarios. The MLI impacts on pig meat production and GDP contribution are only 70 and 76%
greater, respectively, than the impacts under the BAU scenario.

Complimentary interventions and success requirements for the medium investment scenario
are the same as in the recommended investment (RLI) scenario

Conclusions
The pig meat production and GDP impacts under the RLI scenario show substantial increments,
239% and 214% respectively, compared to the base year. The RLI would contribute significantly
to fulfilling the national all meat requirement and would increase per capita pig meat
consumption for Rwanda enough that it would help to meet the Rwandan national
development objective of improving food and nutrition security.

It must also be noted that the technical interventions alone will not bring the projected output
unless the policy and institutional challenges are addressed.
 Needed policies and strategies – to be enacted and implemented
 Livestock products pricing policy
 Animal breeding strategy
 Livestock identification & reporting system policy
 Livestock animal and product traceability policy
 Regulations and standards
 Regulation of animal breeding
 Regulation of animal nutrition; standards on animal commercial
feeds, crops residues, formulation of the feeds, honey, etc

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  Regulation of livestock products pricing and standards on animal
products grading (milk, meat, honey, eggs, wool, hides and skins)
 Standards on livestock infrastructure development (slaughterhouses,
laboratories, processing factories, etc.)
 Standards on vet services and pharmaceuticals and supplies
 Institutional framework
 Strengthening the functional linkages and collaboration of institutions
from national level to grassroots

Under the MLI scenario, pig meat production and GDP contribution drop by 59 and 49%
respectively compared to the RLI scenario. This shows the MLI would significantly slow down
the efforts of Rwanda to modernize and transform the sub-sector and prevent Rwanda from
closing the production and consumption gap for all meat during the 5-year period of the LMP.

Compared to the BAU, the MLI impact on pig meat production and GDP contribution show
declines to only 70 and 76% respectively, indicating the MLI would not be warranted before
conducting a thorough financial feasibility analysis, to calculate the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and
net present value (NPV). It is strongly recommended to do a financial feasibility analysis of the
MLI scenario before committing the investment resources, no matter how great the budget
constraint may be to committing to the RLI.

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